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AeroVironment
(NASDAQ:AVAV)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$196.00
▲(2.39% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/01/26
Overall score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (losses and negative/volatile cash flow despite a solid balance sheet). The earnings call provides a meaningful offset with upbeat FY27 growth and profitability guidance plus strong bookings/backlog, but valuation remains challenged given the negative P/E and the lack of a dividend metric. Technicals are not assessable from the provided data, keeping that component near neutral.
Positive Factors
Product & capability momentum
AeroVironment has broadened its portfolio across lethal and non-lethal UAS, counter‑UAS, and advanced payloads, with commercialization and manufacturing scale targeted (Salt Lake City capacity >$2B). This diversification and product cadence support durable market share gains and multi-year defense program relevance.
Negative Factors
Negative and inconsistent cash generation
Management expects FY27 free cash flow to be negative as aggressive CapEx to expand capacity weighs on cash conversion. Historically operating and free cash flow have been inconsistent and negative in the latest period, creating a sustained funding and execution risk if cash conversion doesn't normalize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Product & capability momentum
AeroVironment has broadened its portfolio across lethal and non-lethal UAS, counter‑UAS, and advanced payloads, with commercialization and manufacturing scale targeted (Salt Lake City capacity >$2B). This diversification and product cadence support durable market share gains and multi-year defense program relevance.
Read all positive factors
AeroVironment Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights which business segments contribute most to the company's income, helping investors assess diversification and identify key growth drivers.
Highlights which business segments contribute most to the company's income, helping investors assess diversification and identify key growth drivers.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAeroVironment (AVAV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.66B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.99
Revenue Growth140.89%
EPS Growth-448.13%
CountryUS
Employees1,403
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.63
Shares Outstanding50,608,030
10 Day Avg. Volume1,000,687
30 Day Avg. Volume1,218,890
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.18
Price to Sales (P/S)4.84
P/FCF Ratio-122.10
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.92
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.74
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-28.56
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$235.46Price Target Upside23.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)3.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.20B
AeroVironment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AeroVironment Inc. develops, produces, delivers, and services a diverse array of robotic systems for governmental and commercial entities across the globe. The company's operations are segmented into Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), Tactical Missi...
How the Company Makes Money
AeroVironment makes money primarily by selling uncrewed systems, payloads, and related services to government customers under defense procurement contracts. Its key revenue streams generally include: (1) Product sales of small UAS platforms and as...
AeroVironment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 29, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational and financial momentum: record Q4 and full‑year revenue, substantial bookings and backlog, margin expansion in product sales, major contract wins, and aggressive capacity investments to capture rising demand across lethal/unlethal drones, counter‑UAS and directed energy. Notable challenges include the SCAR termination and related $89M goodwill impairment with a disclosed material weakness, softness and funding delays in cyber/mission services, compressed service margins and temporary cash flow pressure due to elevated CapEx. Overall, the positive growth, bookings, product milestones and forward guidance materially outweigh the lowlights, though the company faces near‑term timing and execution risks tied to government funding and integration controls.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and Full‑Year Revenue
Reported record Q4 revenue of $642 million and record fiscal year 2026 revenue of nearly $2.0 billion; organic revenue growth of ~30% year‑over‑year for both the quarter and full year.
Negative Updates
SCAR Contract Termination and Goodwill Impairment
Termination for convenience of the SCAR program led to an incremental noncash goodwill impairment charge of $89 million, a restatement of prior quarter results, and an identified material weakness in internal controls related to the goodwill impairment analysis.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly and Full‑Year Revenue
Reported record Q4 revenue of $642 million and record fiscal year 2026 revenue of nearly $2.0 billion; organic revenue growth of ~30% year‑over‑year for both the quarter and full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided fiscal 2027 revenue of $2.13–$2.23 billion (midpoint ~$2.18B, ~10% YoY growth) with adjusted EBITDA of $305–$325 million (midpoint $315M, ~14.5% margin) and non‑GAAP EPS of $3.02–$3.34 (midpoint $3.18); guidance excludes SCAR revenue and assumes ~10% y/y growth, a ~77% ($~37M) increase in depreciation and cloud amortization that pressures near‑term EPS, and continued investment: R&D at 7–9% of revenue (~$153–$196M at midpoint) and CapEx at 12–14% of revenue (~$262–$305M at midpoint), with adjusted SG&A 14–16% of revenue. They expect revenue to be back‑loaded (45/55 H1/H2), adjusted EBITDA weighted ~1/3 H1 and 2/3 H2 (Q1 ≈45% of H1 revenue; Q1 EBITDA ≈1/3 of H1), non‑GAAP EPS 25/75 H1/H2 (Q1 ≈25% of H1 EPS), do not expect positive free cash flow in FY27 due to higher CapEx, and enter the year with funded backlog $1.2B, unfunded backlog $1.5B (total bookings YTD $2.7B) and net leverage ~1.2x adjusted EBITDA.AeroVironment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.98B | 820.63M | 716.72M | 540.54M | 445.73M |
| Gross Profit | 500.64M | 322.94M | 283.93M | 173.51M | 141.24M |
| EBITDA | -311.00M | 104.39M | 109.45M | 61.20M | 51.88M |
| Net Income | -265.12M | 43.62M | 59.67M | -176.21M | -4.19M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.72B | 1.12B | 1.02B | 824.58M | 914.20M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 632.30M | 40.86M | 73.30M | 132.86M | 101.95M |
| Total Debt | 834.79M | 64.29M | 59.68M | 162.82M | 216.57M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.32B | 234.06M | 193.12M | 273.61M | 305.99M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.40B | 886.51M | 822.75M | 550.97M | 607.97M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -78.40M | -24.13M | -9.19M | -3.47M | -31.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -78.40M | -1.32M | 15.29M | 11.40M | -9.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.23B | -28.49M | -51.71M | -7.00M | -52.29M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.65B | -2.86M | -22.85M | 50.83M | -16.61M |
AeroVironment Technical Analysis
Positive
191.42
Price Trends
175.68
Positive
196.76
Negative
254.33
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.71
Negative
60.36
Neutral
78.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVAV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 191.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 166.94, above the 50-day MA of 175.68, and below the 200-day MA of 254.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVAV.
AeroVironment Risk Analysis
AeroVironment disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AeroVironment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AeroVironment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $12.29B | 42.16 | 10.79% | 1.04% | 10.46% | 23.24% | |
66 Neutral | $10.01B | 33.46 | 11.26% | ― | 15.02% | 319.25% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $7.58B | -148.80 | -0.96% | ― | 8.95% | 78.82% | |
60 Neutral | $10.38B | 320.13 | 1.26% | ― | 21.82% | 34.38% | |
56 Neutral | $7.47B | 249.09 | 7.89% | ― | 44.21% | 417.85% | |
55 Neutral | $9.66B | -41.23 | -6.41% | ― | 140.89% | -448.13% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AVAV
AeroVironment
190.89
-49.85
-20.71%
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AeroVironment Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
AeroVironment Reports Record Revenue After Transformational Year
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
AeroVironment reported that fiscal 2026 was a transformational year, driven by its largest acquisition to date and significant investments to diversify its portfolio in areas aligned with priority defense needs. For the fourth quarter and year end...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AeroVironment Adds Former Deputy Defense Secretary to Board
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
AeroVironment, Inc., a U.S.-listed defense technology specialist, designs and deploys autonomous systems, loitering munitions, counter-UAS tools, space-based platforms, directed energy solutions, and cyber and electronic warfare capabilities acros...
Executive/Board Changes
AeroVironment board reshaped as two directors resign
Neutral
Jun 22, 2026
On June 16, 2026, AeroVironment directors David Wodlinger and Henry Albers submitted their resignations from the company’s board, effective June 17, 2026, stating the moves were not due to any disagreements with management or company policie...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AeroVironment Names New CFO to Support Growth
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 13, 2026, AeroVironment announced that Sean T. Woodward will become Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective May 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin McDonnell, who will move to an advisory role through July 2026 before retirin...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AeroVironment Appoints New COO Amid Leadership Transition
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
On April 9, 2026, AeroVironment announced that defense industry veteran Dr. Robert Smith will become Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective April 13, 2026. He will oversee the company’s Autonomous Systems and Space, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.