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AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)
:AVAV
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AeroVironment (AVAV) AI Stock Analysis

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AVAV

AeroVironment

(NASDAQ:AVAV)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$288.00
▲(7.48% Upside)
AeroVironment's positive earnings call, highlighting significant growth and strategic acquisitions, is a major contributor to the score. The technical indicators support a bullish trend, while the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation concerns. Financial stability is evident from a strong balance sheet but cash flow inefficiencies need addressing.
Positive Factors
Financial Flexibility
The refinancing provides AeroVironment, Inc. with substantial financial flexibility, boasting $600 million in cash and a $650 million 0% coupon convertible note.
International Growth Opportunities
Rising European demand and NATO's 5% GDP pledge for defense spending could unlock more international growth opportunities for AeroVironment.
Investor Sentiment
Investors are increasingly viewing AeroVironment shares as aligned with Kratos, suggesting at least 30% upside potential.
Negative Factors
Goodwill Impairment
$18.4 million impairment of goodwill is linked to weaker forecasted results in the Uncrewed Ground Vehicle business.
Sales Projections
The FY2026 sales and adjusted EBITDA outlook is weaker than expected, although management conservatism is considered a factor.

AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

AeroVironment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), Tactical Missile System (TMS), Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS), and High Altitude Pseudo-Satellite Systems (HAPS). The company supplies UAS, TMS, unmanned ground vehicle, and related services primarily to organizations within the U.S. Department of Defense and to international allied governments. It also designs, engineers, tools, and manufactures unmanned aerial and aircraft systems, including airborne platforms, payloads and payload integration, ground control systems, and ground support equipment and other items and services related to unmanned aircraft systems. In addition, the company offers small UAS products, including spare equipment, alternative payload modules, batteries, chargers, repair services, and customer support, as well as multiple aircraft, hand-held ground control system, and spare parts and accessories. Further, it develops high-altitude pseudo-satellite UAS systems. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAeroVironment generates revenue through the sale of its unmanned aircraft systems and tactical missile systems primarily to government and defense organizations. A significant portion of its income comes from contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense, as well as international military customers. The company also earns from providing support services, including training and maintenance for its products. Additionally, it engages in research and development contracts to create advanced solutions, which further contribute to its earnings. Key partnerships and collaborations with defense agencies and commercial entities enhance AeroVironment's market reach and revenue potential.

AeroVironment Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Type
Revenue by Type
Breaks down income by different revenue streams, offering insight into the company's business model and potential areas for expansion or vulnerability.
Chart InsightsAeroVironment's product sales have surged recently, driven by new product launches and strategic acquisitions like Blue Halo, which enhance their defense technology offerings. Despite a decline in contract services revenue, the company achieved record fiscal year revenue and strong bookings, indicating robust demand for its innovative solutions. However, challenges such as reduced revenues from Ukraine and lower service margins could impact future growth. The company's optimistic guidance for 2026 reflects confidence in overcoming these hurdles and capitalizing on international market expansion.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

AeroVironment Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 25, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 14.05%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 03, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements including record revenues, strong bookings, and strategic acquisitions, alongside challenges such as decreased revenues from Ukraine and lower service margins. Overall, the positive developments and future growth prospects outweigh the negatives.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Fiscal Year Revenue
AeroVironment achieved record fiscal year revenue of $821 million, which is 14% higher than the prior year period, and record fourth quarter revenues of $275 million, which is 40% higher than the prior year period.
Strong Bookings and Backlog
The company secured $1.2 billion in total bookings for fiscal year 2025 and ended the year with a funded backlog of $726 million, which is 82% higher than the prior fiscal year.
Blue Halo Acquisition
The acquisition of Blue Halo was completed, strengthening AeroVironment's position with an all-domain portfolio of innovative solutions across air, land, sea, space, and cyber.
Launch of New Products
AeroVironment launched three new products: the P550, JUMP 20X, and Red Dragon, which are designed to meet evolving market demands.
Growth in Loitering Munitions Systems
LMS segment revenues for the fourth quarter rose 87% to $138 million, and for the full fiscal year, revenues increased by 83% to $352 million.
Guidance for Fiscal Year 2026
The company set its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance between $1.9 billion to $2 billion, with expected adjusted EBITDA between $300 million and $320 million.
Negative Updates
Reduced Revenues from Ukraine
Revenues from Ukraine in fiscal year 2025 ended up being 18% of total revenue, down significantly from previous levels, and is expected to be less than 5% in fiscal year 2026.
Decrease in Service Gross Margins
Adjusted service gross margins declined by 6% year-over-year, impacting overall adjusted gross margins slightly.
Net Income Decrease
For the full year, net income decreased by $16 million to $43.6 million compared to $59.7 million in fiscal year 2024, attributed to goodwill impairment and increased integration costs.
High SG&A Costs
Fiscal year 2025 SG&A net of adjustments was $133 million versus $107.3 million in FY 2024, driven by increased global sales footprint and bid and proposal activity.
Company Guidance
In AeroVironment's earnings call for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, the guidance for fiscal year 2026 was outlined with a revenue target set between $1.9 billion and $2 billion, marking significant growth from the previous year's record revenue of $821 million. The company achieved a 14% increase in annual revenue and reported $1.2 billion in total bookings for fiscal year 2025, leading to a funded backlog of $726 million, 82% higher than the prior year. AeroVironment also completed its acquisition of Blue Halo, bolstering its position in next-generation defense technology. For fiscal year 2026, the company anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be between $300 million and $320 million, with non-GAAP adjusted EPS ranging from $2.80 to $3.00. The growth is expected to be driven by strong demand for its innovative solutions, including new product launches such as the P550 UAS, JUMP 20X, and Red Dragon, and continued expansion in international markets.

AeroVironment Financial Statement Overview

Summary
AeroVironment shows strong operational efficiency with a solid gross profit margin, but faces challenges in consistent profitability and cash flow management. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, suggesting financial stability, but negative free cash flow highlights issues in cash management.
Income Statement
68
Positive
AeroVironment has shown fluctuating revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase from 2022 to 2023. The gross profit margin for the latest year stands at around 46%, which is strong for the industry, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at approximately 6.3%, reflecting higher operating and financing costs. The company has struggled with consistent profitability, as seen in the past negative net incomes, but recent improvements in EBIT and EBITDA margins show a positive trend towards operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company maintains a strong equity position with an equity ratio of approximately 79%, indicating a solid financial foundation with low leverage. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at around 0.04, which suggests a conservative approach to debt financing. Return on Equity (ROE) for the latest year is approximately 4.9%, which, while positive, indicates room for improvement in generating returns from equity. The balance sheet reflects stability and a low-risk profile in terms of financial leverage.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
The cash flow situation presents challenges, with a negative free cash flow in the latest year due to negative operating cash flow. This indicates potential issues in converting revenue into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting inefficiencies in cash generation relative to reported profits. However, the past positive operating cash flow years show potential for recovery if operational adjustments are made.
BreakdownJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue692.72M716.72M540.54M445.73M394.91M
Gross Profit318.64M283.93M173.51M141.24M164.56M
EBITDA40.80M102.50M-79.08M43.35M54.24M
Net Income43.62M59.67M-173.71M-8.77M33.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.12B1.02B824.58M914.20M928.57M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments40.86M73.30M132.86M101.95M180.71M
Total Debt34.29M59.68M162.82M216.57M222.77M
Total Liabilities234.06M193.12M273.61M305.99M316.46M
Stockholders Equity886.51M822.75M550.97M607.97M612.09M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.32M-9.19M-3.47M-31.91M75.27M
Operating Cash Flow-1.32M15.29M11.40M-9.62M86.53M
Investing Cash Flow-28.49M-51.71M-7.00M-52.29M-378.77M
Financing Cash Flow-2.86M-22.85M50.83M-16.61M194.16M

AeroVironment Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price267.95
Price Trends
50DMA
230.03
Positive
100DMA
186.54
Positive
200DMA
182.34
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
9.75
Positive
RSI
56.84
Neutral
STOCH
41.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVAV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 267.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 265.37, above the 50-day MA of 230.03, and above the 200-day MA of 182.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 9.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVAV.

AeroVironment Risk Analysis

AeroVironment disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AeroVironment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

AeroVironment Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$9.89B466.591.45%7.32%
68
Neutral
$13.06B170.475.10%14.50%-29.76%
65
Neutral
$6.67B
59
Neutral
AU$1.62B9.942.84%3.53%9.79%5.94%
58
Neutral
$3.24B-4.45%5.66%52.71%
49
Neutral
$4.61B81.63%-2.91%-109.95%
49
Neutral
$6.55B-73.89%17.43%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AVAV
AeroVironment
264.75
88.32
50.06%
KTOS
Kratos Defense
59.40
39.65
200.76%
MRCY
Mercury Systems
54.24
19.58
56.49%
SPR
Spirit AeroSystems
39.29
5.52
16.35%
ACHR
Archer Aviation
10.33
6.34
158.90%
KRMN
Karman Holdings Inc.
50.39
18.39
57.47%

AeroVironment Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
AeroVironment Raises $126.3 Million Through Share Offering
Positive
Jul 15, 2025

On July 3, 2025, AeroVironment, Inc. completed a public offering of 3,528,226 shares at $248.00 per share, with an additional 529,234 shares sold on July 15, 2025, through an over-allotment option, raising approximately $126.3 million in net proceeds. This capital influx is expected to bolster the company’s financial position and potentially enhance its market competitiveness in the aerospace and defense sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVAV) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AeroVironment stock, see the AVAV Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
AeroVironment Completes Stock and Convertible Notes Issuance
Neutral
Jul 3, 2025

On July 1, 2025, AeroVironment, Inc. entered into agreements to issue and sell 3,528,226 shares of common stock and $747,500,000 of 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2030. The issuance of these financial instruments was completed by July 3, 2025, with the notes governed by an indenture agreement. These financial moves are aimed at strengthening the company’s capital structure and may impact its market positioning by providing additional liquidity and flexibility for future operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVAV) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AeroVironment stock, see the AVAV Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
AeroVironment Announces Public Offerings to Repay Loans
Neutral
Jul 1, 2025

On May 1, 2025, AeroVironment, Inc. completed the acquisition of BlueHalo Financing Topco, LLC, utilizing a $700 million term loan and $225 million from its revolving credit facility to settle BlueHalo’s existing debts and transaction expenses. Subsequently, on June 30, 2025, AeroVironment announced plans for public offerings of $750 million in common stock and $600 million in convertible senior notes to repay the aforementioned loans and for general corporate purposes, though the completion of these offerings remains subject to market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVAV) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AeroVironment stock, see the AVAV Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
AeroVironment Reports Record Q4 and FY 2025 Results
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

AeroVironment reported record financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, with a 40% increase in fourth-quarter revenue and a 14% rise in annual revenue. The company achieved significant growth in its Uncrewed Systems and Loitering Munition Systems, leading to record bookings of $1.2 billion. The acquisition of BlueHalo is expected to enhance AeroVironment’s position in the defense-technology sector, aligning with strategic priorities and expanding capabilities. Despite a goodwill impairment charge in the Uncrewed Ground Vehicle business, the company anticipates strong growth in fiscal year 2026, projecting revenue between $1.9 billion and $2.0 billion.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVAV) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AeroVironment stock, see the AVAV Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
AeroVironment Highlights BlueHalo Acquisition at Conference
Positive
Jun 3, 2025

On June 3, 2025, AeroVironment, Inc. presented an overview of its business at the William Blair Annual Growth Stock Conference in Chicago. The company highlighted its recent acquisition of BlueHalo, which closed on May 1, 2025, and is expected to enhance revenue and market position. The acquisition is anticipated to provide significant synergies and strengthen AeroVironment’s portfolio of mission-critical capabilities, positioning it as a diversified defense technology provider. The company also outlined its strategic focus on expanding into new markets and maintaining its role as a market innovator, despite the inherent risks and uncertainties involved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVAV) stock is a Buy with a $200.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AeroVironment stock, see the AVAV Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
AeroVironment Completes Acquisition of BlueHalo
Positive
May 5, 2025

AeroVironment, Inc. announced that it will meet with investors from May 5-8, 2025, to discuss its recent acquisition of BlueHalo, which was completed on May 1, 2025. The acquisition is expected to drive significant growth and strengthen AeroVironment’s position in the defense technology sector. The company aims to leverage BlueHalo’s capabilities to enhance its product offerings and expand into new markets, despite potential risks and uncertainties associated with the integration process.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 16, 2025