AeroVironment (AVAV)
NASDAQ:AVAV
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AeroVironment
(NASDAQ:AVAV)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$188.00
▲(4.61% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/10/26
The score is held back primarily by weak current fundamentals (TTM loss, sharp margin compression, and negative operating/free cash flow) and a bearish technical trend (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these is a comparatively stronger earnings-call outlook, supported by raised FY2026 targets, strong order/backlog indicators, and stated high visibility—though SCAR-related disruption and recent margin pressure remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Strong Funded Backlog & Record Awards
A funded backlog of $1.1B plus a record $4.6B of year-to-date awards provides multi-quarter revenue visibility for government programs. This reduces near-term demand uncertainty, supports production planning, and underpins durable revenue conversion as contracts execute over FY24–FY27 horizons.
Negative Factors
Sharp Margin Compression & Profitability Reversal
A plunge to single-digit gross margins and a deeply negative net margin indicate structural margin pressure from mix, timing and one-time charges. Sustained low margins erode free cash generation and weaken the firm's ability to fund growth, making long-term margin recovery a critical durability risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Funded Backlog & Record Awards
A funded backlog of $1.1B plus a record $4.6B of year-to-date awards provides multi-quarter revenue visibility for government programs. This reduces near-term demand uncertainty, supports production planning, and underpins durable revenue conversion as contracts execute over FY24–FY27 horizons.
Read all positive factors
AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.97B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.79
Revenue Growth79.89%
EPS Growth-171.81%
CountryUS
Employees1,403
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.64
Shares Outstanding49,933,994
10 Day Avg. Volume906,724
30 Day Avg. Volume2,086,617
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.38
Price to Book (P/B)4.79
Price to Sales (P/S)5.17
P/FCF Ratio-175.91
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit27.07
Enterprise Value/Ebitda66.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$303.00Price Target Upside68.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)2.92
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.90B
AeroVironment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Unmanne...
How the Company Makes Money
AeroVironment makes money primarily by selling uncrewed systems and providing related support to government customers, with revenue largely generated through contracts (including multi-year and program-based procurements) tied to defense budgets a...
AeroVironment Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights which business segments contribute most to the company's income, helping investors assess diversification and identify key growth drivers.
Highlights which business segments contribute most to the company's income, helping investors assess diversification and identify key growth drivers.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAeroVironment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a cautiously optimistic picture: operational and market momentum is strong (record YTD awards, $1.1B funded backlog, robust organic growth, large IDIQ and task orders, manufacturing expansion, and commercialization plans for high-growth products). However, meaningful near-term headwinds remain, chiefly the SCAR stop-work and contract termination that produced a $151M goodwill impairment and a pro forma revenue decline in the Space segment, plus timing, shipping and funding delays that pushed revenue and high-margin sales into Q4. Management emphasizes confidence in record Q4 and FY2027 positioning, but near-term execution and backlog composition risks persist.Positive Updates
Record Order Flow and Backlog Growth
Funded backlog grew to $1.1 billion and year-to-date total awards reached a record $4.6 billion; funded backlog provides strong visibility into Q4 and FY2027 demand.
Negative Updates
SCAR Stop-Work and Contract Termination
U.S. Space Force paused then terminated for convenience the BADGER/SCAR contract after negotiations to amend to a firm-fixed-price/commercialized approach failed; this triggered program timing disruption and backlog adjustments (approximately $1.5 billion of unfunded backlog related to SCAR at quarter-end).
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Order Flow and Backlog Growth
Funded backlog grew to $1.1 billion and year-to-date total awards reached a record $4.6 billion; funded backlog provides strong visibility into Q4 and FY2027 demand.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management revised FY‑2026 guidance to revenue of $1.85–$1.95 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $265–$285 million and non‑GAAP EPS of $2.75–$3.10, targeting full‑year adjusted EBITDA margins of ~14–15% and adjusted gross margins in the high‑20s to low‑30s (with Q4 gross margins expected in the low‑to‑mid‑30s); Q3 results that underpin the outlook were $408 million of revenue (38% organic YoY), $44 million of adjusted EBITDA (11% margin) and $0.64 of adjusted EPS, and management stated visibility to the midpoint of the revised guidance is ~98%. The guide is supported by a $1.1 billion funded backlog, roughly $3.0 billion of unfunded backlog (including ~$1.5 billion SCAR‑related), $4.6 billion of year‑to‑date awards, $649 million of cash and investments and a trailing‑12‑month revenue base of $1.6 billion; the company also recorded a $151 million non‑cash goodwill impairment tied to the SCAR stop‑work. Despite the SCAR change, leadership reiterated expectations for a record fourth quarter and strong FY‑2027 growth and highlighted capacity investments (a 140,000 sq ft Salt Lake City facility with potential >$2 billion annual Switchblade capacity, Titan manufacturing ramp >4x this year and >10x by FY2030) that underlie the revised guidance.AeroVironment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 | Apr 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.61B | 820.63M | 716.72M | 540.54M | 445.73M | 394.91M |
| Gross Profit | 351.34M | 322.94M | 283.93M | 173.51M | 141.24M | 164.56M |
| EBITDA | 142.56M | 104.39M | 109.45M | 61.20M | 51.88M | 69.54M |
| Net Income | -224.36M | 43.62M | 59.67M | -176.21M | -4.19M | 23.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.45B | 1.12B | 1.02B | 824.58M | 914.20M | 928.57M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 587.14M | 40.86M | 73.30M | 132.86M | 101.95M | 180.71M |
| Total Debt | 826.01M | 64.29M | 59.68M | 162.82M | 216.57M | 222.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.18B | 234.06M | 193.12M | 273.61M | 305.99M | 316.46M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.27B | 886.51M | 822.75M | 550.97M | 607.97M | 612.09M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -195.30M | -24.13M | -9.19M | -3.47M | -31.91M | 75.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -174.18M | -1.32M | 15.29M | 11.40M | -9.62M | 86.53M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.24B | -28.49M | -51.71M | -7.00M | -52.29M | -378.77M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.65B | -2.86M | -22.85M | 50.83M | -16.61M | 194.16M |
AeroVironment Technical Analysis
Negative
179.72
Price Trends
227.65
Negative
257.54
Negative
275.53
Negative
Market Momentum
-14.21
Negative
35.94
Neutral
26.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVAV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 179.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 194.83, below the 50-day MA of 227.65, and below the 200-day MA of 275.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -14.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVAV.
AeroVironment Risk Analysis
AeroVironment disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AeroVironment reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AeroVironment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $12.24B | 32.53 | 10.54% | 1.04% | 12.27% | 33.16% | |
64 Neutral | $9.03B | 33.96 | 10.88% | ― | 17.79% | 815.80% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
55 Neutral | $4.78B | -73.03 | -2.08% | ― | 8.63% | 72.72% | |
53 Neutral | $10.94B | 313.82 | 4.48% | ― | ― | ― | |
52 Neutral | $12.80B | 606.55 | 1.20% | ― | 14.00% | 23.78% | |
51 Neutral | $8.97B | -21.68 | -6.41% | ― | 79.89% | -171.81% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AVAV
AeroVironment
179.72
36.92
25.85%
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AeroVironment Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AeroVironment Appoints New COO Amid Leadership Transition
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
On April 9, 2026, AeroVironment announced that defense industry veteran Dr. Robert Smith will become Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective April 13, 2026. He will oversee the company’s Autonomous Systems and Space, ...
Executive/Board Changes
AeroVironment Announces COO Brad Truesdell’s Planned Retirement
Neutral
Mar 18, 2026
On March 12, 2026, AeroVironment Inc. announced that Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Brad Truesdell had notified the company of his intention to retire once a successor is appointed, and he is expected to remain in his role as...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
AeroVironment Completes ESAero Acquisition to Expand Defense Capabilities
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 16, 2026, AeroVironment, Inc. completed the approximately $200 million acquisition of Empirical Systems Aerospace, Inc., paying roughly $160 million in stock and the remainder in cash, with the deal subject to customary adjustments. ESAer...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
AeroVironment Addresses SCAR Termination and Future Opportunities
Negative
Mar 10, 2026
AeroVironment reported fiscal third-quarter 2026 results on March 10, 2026, with revenue surging 143% year over year to $408 million and nine-month revenue reaching $1.3 billion, driven in part by the BlueHalo acquisition and strong demand across ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AeroVironment Adopts New Executive Deferred Compensation Plan
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On February 27, 2026, AeroVironment’s Compensation Committee approved a Non-Qualified Deferred Compensation Plan, effective March 1, 2026, for certain key employees, named executive officers and non-employee directors. The plan allows employ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
AeroVironment Announces CFO Retirement and Transition Plan
Neutral
Feb 23, 2026
On February 18, 2026, AeroVironment Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Kevin McDonnell notified the company of his decision to retire effective July 31, 2026, and on February 20, 2026, he entered into a retirement agreement setti...
Business Operations and Strategy
AeroVironment Faces Stop Work Order, Renegotiates SCAR Deal
Negative
Jan 20, 2026
On January 16, 2026, the U.S. Government, in mutual agreement with AeroVironment, issued a stop work order on the company’s Other Transaction Agreement for delivery of BADGER phased array antenna systems under the Satellite Communication Aug...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.