Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)
NYSE:KRMN
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Karman Holdings Inc.
(NYSE:KRMN)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$87.00
▼(-1.04% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/04/26
The score is primarily restrained by weak 2025 cash generation and a still-levered financial profile, compounded by very high valuation and bearish-to-weak technical momentum. These are partly offset by a notably optimistic earnings outlook with strong FY2026 growth guidance and expanded backlog/visibility.
Positive Factors
Backlog & Revenue Visibility
A backlog above $1B with ~80% visibility to the 2026 midpoint gives multi-quarter revenue certainty that supports capacity planning, staffing and supplier commitments. This durable visibility reduces execution risk, underpins the aggressive FY2026 growth target, and enables more predictable cash flow timing as programs ramp.
Negative Factors
2025 Cash Flow Reversal
The switch to negative operating and free cash flow in 2025 materially weakens internal funding capacity and increases reliance on external financing. Persistently weak cash conversion would limit discretionary investment, slow deleveraging and constrain the firm's ability to absorb execution delays or higher working capital from ramping programs.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog & Revenue Visibility
A backlog above $1B with ~80% visibility to the 2026 midpoint gives multi-quarter revenue certainty that supports capacity planning, staffing and supplier commitments. This durable visibility reduces execution risk, underpins the aggressive FY2026 growth target, and enables more predictable cash flow timing as programs ramp.
Read all positive factors
Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.29B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)557.5
Beta (1Y)1.65
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,113
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding132,526,300
10 Day Avg. Volume1,254,902
30 Day Avg. Volume1,814,975
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio15.80
Price to Book (P/B)25.30
Price to Sales (P/S)20.53
P/FCF Ratio-228.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue24.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit73.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda97.09
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$115.67Price Target Upside31.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$724.49M
Karman Holdings Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Karman Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, Karman Space and Defense, engages in designing, testing, manufacturing, and sale of mission-critical systems for missile and defense, space programs, hypersonic, and launch vehicle markets. It also sup...
Karman Holdings Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial trajectory: record quarterly and full-year results, significant YoY revenue and EBITDA growth, expanded backlog (now >$1B), aggressive 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance, sizeable capacity investments and targeted M&A that broaden capabilities and de-risk the supply chain. Near-term challenges include contracting timing delays (federal shutdown effects), integration-related margin mix (cost-plus contracts), and elevated debt/leverage following acquisitions. Management has increased CapEx to support capacity and expects leverage to moderate to ~3x by end-2026. Given the scale and materiality of the positive metrics and forward guidance versus the mainly timing- and integration-related lowlights, the overall tone is optimistic and growth-forward.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Profitability
Q4 revenue of $134.0M, up 47% year-over-year; Q4 gross profit $54.0M, up 54% YoY with a 40% gross margin; Q4 adjusted EBITDA $42.0M, up 59% YoY (quarterly record). Q4 net income rose to $8.0M (over 300% YoY) and adjusted EPS was $0.11 vs $0.03 a year earlier (more than tripled).
Negative Updates
Contracting Delays and Seasonality Headwinds
Karman experienced a temporary slowdown in contracting activity in Q4 2025 that extended into Q1 2026 due in part to a federal government shutdown. Management characterized many effects as timing delays rather than lost awards, but timing uncertainty creates near-term headwinds to bookings and revenue recognition.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Profitability
Q4 revenue of $134.0M, up 47% year-over-year; Q4 gross profit $54.0M, up 54% YoY with a 40% gross margin; Q4 adjusted EBITDA $42.0M, up 59% YoY (quarterly record). Q4 net income rose to $8.0M (over 300% YoY) and adjusted EPS was $0.11 vs $0.03 a year earlier (more than tripled).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Karman narrowed its FY2026 guidance to revenue of $715M–$730M (≈53% YoY growth) and non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $207M–$218M (≈46% YoY growth), implying an adjusted EBITDA margin around 29–30% (versus 30.7% in FY2025); management said H1 should represent roughly 45% of full‑year revenue and adjusted EBITDA with sequential quarterly growth similar to 2025, that growth will be roughly split between organic and inorganic, and backlog has expanded to >$1B—providing ~80% visibility to the midpoint as of March 20, 2026. They expect FY2026 CapEx of about 5% of revenue (≈$36M), a statutory tax rate of 25.5%, a targeted leverage reduction to ~3x adjusted EBITDA by year‑end (total debt was $768M at SOFR+2.75%), cash of $34M at Q4 year‑end, and an increased $150M revolving credit facility to support capacity expansion.Karman Holdings Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||
| Total Revenue | 471.50M | 345.25M | 280.71M | 226.31M |
| Gross Profit | 158.60M | 132.11M | 105.55M | 80.95M |
| EBITDA | 115.68M | 96.36M | 75.67M | 55.21M |
| Net Income | 17.37M | 12.70M | 4.36M | -14.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||
| Total Assets | 1.14B | 773.96M | 710.83M | 682.59M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 33.96M | 11.53M | 5.45M | 6.63M |
| Total Debt | 587.31M | 447.87M | 409.33M | 403.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 759.98M | 577.96M | 528.37M | 505.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 382.69M | 196.00M | 182.46M | 177.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||
| Free Cash Flow | -42.45M | 11.39M | 3.55M | -27.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -22.12M | 26.65M | 20.33M | -5.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -238.27M | -46.24M | -16.21M | -21.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 282.82M | 25.67M | -5.29M | 16.73M |
Karman Holdings Inc. Technical Analysis
Neutral
87.91
Price Trends
72.79
Negative
63.29
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.08
Negative
47.20
Neutral
87.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KRMN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 87.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.58, above the 50-day MA of 72.79, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KRMN.
Karman Holdings Inc. Risk Analysis
Karman Holdings Inc. disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Karman Holdings Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Karman Holdings Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $9.95B | 25.10 | 13.20% | 0.46% | 7.11% | 13.43% | |
70 Outperform | $6.13B | 88.22 | 6.31% | ― | 25.38% | 237.96% | |
67 Neutral | $6.73B | 42.26 | 2.18% | ― | ― | ― | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $6.28B | 53.70 | 7.41% | 0.89% | -0.37% | -34.97% | |
53 Neutral | $12.29B | 557.53 | 4.75% | ― | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Karman Holdings Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Karman Holdings Expands Revolving Credit Facilities and Liquidity
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
On March 9, 2026, Karman Holdings Inc. executed a Fourth Amendment to its existing Credit Agreement with Citibank, N.A. and other lenders, raising its revolving credit commitments by $100,000,000 to a total of $150,000,000. The amendment also remo...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Karman Holdings Announces CEO Transition to Jon Rambeau
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Karman Holdings announced that long-serving CEO Tony Koblinski will retire from his management role effective March 23, 2026, while remaining on the board, marking the end of a 40-year leadership career that included guiding Kar...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Karman Holdings Completes Acquisition Funded by Refinanced Debt
Positive
Feb 6, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Karman Holdings Inc. amended its existing credit agreement, refinancing $502.8 million of term loans at a rate reduced by 75 basis points to SOFR plus 2.75%, and lowering pricing on its revolving credit facility by 75 basis po...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Karman Holdings to Acquire Seemann Composites and MSC
Positive
Jan 7, 2026
On January 7, 2026, Karman Holdings Inc. announced that on December 31, 2025, it entered into a definitive agreement for a subsidiary to acquire Seemann Composites and Materials Sciences LLC for total consideration of about $220 million in cash an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.