Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)
NYSE:KRMN
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Karman Holdings Inc.
(NYSE:KRMN)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
▼(-42.57% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/02/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow, elevated leverage, and bearish technicals. These risks outweigh the strong earnings-call fundamentals (raised guidance, record results, and >$1B backlog), while valuation is a further drag given the very high P/E and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Large backlog with high revenue visibility
A >$1B backlog with ~90% visibility to guidance provides durable multi-year demand visibility across space, hypersonics, missiles and maritime. That backlog underpins production planning, capacity investment and revenue predictability, reducing near-term revenue volatility and supporting scale.
Negative Factors
High absolute debt and elevated leverage
A sizable absolute debt load limits financial flexibility and raises interest expense sensitivity, especially with SOFR-linked pricing. Elevated leverage constrains the company's ability to absorb margin compression or working-capital swings and makes deleveraging execution critical to long-term resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large backlog with high revenue visibility
A >$1B backlog with ~90% visibility to guidance provides durable multi-year demand visibility across space, hypersonics, missiles and maritime. That backlog underpins production planning, capacity investment and revenue predictability, reducing near-term revenue volatility and supporting scale.
Read all positive factors
Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.34B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)211.6
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth44.21%
EPS Growth417.85%
CountryUS
Employees1,113
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding132,526,300
10 Day Avg. Volume4,653,166
30 Day Avg. Volume2,992,318
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio15.80
Price to Book (P/B)25.30
Price to Sales (P/S)20.53
P/FCF Ratio-228.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.33
Enterprise Value/Revenue16.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit39.23
Enterprise Value/Ebitda60.79
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$102.89Price Target Upside23.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$730.91M
Karman Holdings Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Karman Holdings Inc., primarily operating through its Karman Space and Defense division, specializes in the design, rigorous testing, production, and sale of vital systems. These critical components are integral to sectors such as missile and defe...
Karman Holdings Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a strongly positive operational and financial trajectory: record revenue, profits, backlog and raised guidance underscore robust demand across all end markets, with meaningful customer commitments and capacity expansion underway. Risks include a sizable absolute debt load, reliance on contingent commitments and inorganic growth for part of the upside, and the usual timing uncertainty around defense appropriations and contract awards. Overall, positives (record results, backlog, raised guidance, multi‑year customer commitments, capacity investments) materially outweigh the outlined risks.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Growth
Q1 revenue of $151.0M, up 51% year-over-year; raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $720M–$735M (implies ~54% YoY growth at midpoint).
Negative Updates
High Absolute Debt Load
Total debt of $758M carries an interest rate of SOFR + 2.75%; while management expects leverage to decline to ~3x adjusted EBITDA by year-end 2026, debt remains a material balance-sheet consideration.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Growth
Q1 revenue of $151.0M, up 51% year-over-year; raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $720M–$735M (implies ~54% YoY growth at midpoint).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Karman raised its 2026 guidance to full‑year revenue of $720–$735 million and non‑GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $208.5–$219.5 million (implying a ~29.4% adjusted EBITDA margin at the midpoint), which management says represents roughly 54% year‑over‑year revenue growth and 47% adjusted EBITDA growth; Q1 results (revenue $151M, adjusted EBITDA $45M, backlog >$1B up 61% YoY) provide about 90% visibility to the midpoint with the remaining ~10% expected from anticipated contracts. The company expects CapEx of ~5% of revenue (~$36M), a statutory tax rate of ~26.5%, D&A and interest to increase modestly post‑acquisitions, and leverage to decline to ~3x adjusted EBITDA by year‑end 2026 from total debt of $758M (at SOFR +275 bps); cash was $74M and the untapped revolver was increased to $150M. Revenue growth for the year is expected to be roughly evenly split between organic and inorganic sources, and management noted contingent multi‑year customer commitments (4–7 years) that could ultimately yield >$1 billion of revenue when fully realized.Karman Holdings Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
49
Neutral
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 522.59M | 471.50M | 345.25M | 280.70M | 226.31M |
| Gross Profit | 214.44M | 190.03M | 132.11M | 105.55M | 80.95M |
| EBITDA | 138.40M | 119.83M | 97.86M | 76.24M | 55.21M |
| Net Income | 29.96M | 17.37M | 12.70M | 4.36M | -14.10M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.42B | 1.14B | 773.96M | 710.83M | 682.59M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 73.80M | 33.96M | 11.53M | 5.45M | 6.63M |
| Total Debt | 866.99M | 587.31M | 447.87M | 409.33M | 403.58M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.01B | 759.98M | 577.96M | 528.37M | 505.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 405.69M | 382.69M | 196.00M | 182.46M | 177.60M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -31.00M | -42.45M | 11.39M | 3.55M | -27.16M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -8.33M | -22.12M | 26.65M | 20.33M | -5.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -444.75M | -238.27M | -46.24M | -16.21M | -21.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 413.20M | 282.82M | 25.67M | -5.29M | 16.73M |
Karman Holdings Inc. Technical Analysis
Neutral
83.58
Price Trends
72.79
Negative
63.29
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.08
Negative
47.20
Neutral
87.42
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KRMN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 83.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.58, above the 50-day MA of 72.79, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KRMN.
Karman Holdings Inc. Risk Analysis
Karman Holdings Inc. disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Karman Holdings Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Karman Holdings Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $6.37B | 93.78 | 5.86% | ― | 26.33% | 88.70% | |
71 Outperform | $12.53B | 43.97 | 14.06% | 0.46% | 13.79% | 37.64% | |
64 Neutral | $5.59B | 37.69 | 3.27% | ― | 26.11% | 801.19% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $7.37B | 63.01 | 8.35% | 0.89% | 1.46% | -0.14% | |
52 Neutral | $6.34B | 211.59 | 7.89% | ― | 44.21% | 417.85% |
* Industrials Sector Average
KRMN
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Karman Holdings Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Karman Holdings Prices Secondary Stock Offering Amid Growth
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Karman Holdings Inc. signed an underwriting agreement allowing selling stockholders to offer 14 million shares of common stock at $61 per share, with underwriters granted a 30-day option to buy up to an additional 2.1 million shar...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Karman Holdings Shareholders Elect Class I Directors
Positive
May 4, 2026
On April 29, 2026, Karman Holdings Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with 132,526,299 shares of common stock outstanding and entitled to vote as of the March 5, 2026 record date. At the meeting, shareholders voted on the election of Cl...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Karman Holdings Expands Revolving Credit Facilities and Liquidity
Positive
Mar 13, 2026
On March 9, 2026, Karman Holdings Inc. executed a Fourth Amendment to its existing Credit Agreement with Citibank, N.A. and other lenders, raising its revolving credit commitments by $100,000,000 to a total of $150,000,000. The amendment also remo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.