Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.06B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 976.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.88
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,113
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 132,322,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,707,884
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,984,261
• PEG Ratio: 1.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 20.26
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 348.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 26.92
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 67.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 109.69
• 1Y Price Target: $105.33
• Price Target Upside: 25.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $121.00 ▲(44.74% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/08/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/08/26

The score is driven by solid operating performance and a very positive earnings call with raised guidance and strong backlog visibility, supported by bullish technical trend signals. Offsetting these strengths are significant balance-sheet risk (negative equity/high leverage) and an extremely high P/E valuation, which meaningfully reduces the overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue & Margin Expansion

Karman reported record revenue and strong gross margins driven by broad end-market growth. Durable margin expansion signals pricing power and cost control, supporting sustainable operating cash flow and reinvestment capacity across cycles and enabling funding for organic growth.

Large Funded Backlog

A $758M funded backlog provides multi-quarter revenue visibility and underpins the raised guidance. High booked work reduces near-term demand volatility, improves capacity planning, and supports predictable cash conversion and margin stability for the medium term.

Strategic Acquisitions & Capital Access

Acquisition of Seemann expands advanced materials IP and maritime defense capabilities, expected to be accretive to revenue, backlog and margins. Coupled with a completed $1.2B non‑dilutive secondary and increased credit facility, Karman shows structural access to capital for disciplined inorganic growth.

Negative Factors

Weak Balance Sheet / Negative Equity

Negative equity and elevated leverage materially weaken financial flexibility, raising refinancing and covenant risk. This structural capital weakness can increase funding costs, limit ability to pursue large contracts or acquisitions without external financing, and amplify downside in stress scenarios.

Reliance on Financing & Cash Flow Variability

Although operating cash flow has improved, historical negative free cash flow and ongoing reliance on financing to fund acquisitions mean cash generation is not yet self-sustaining. This raises execution risk if capital markets tighten or interest costs rise, pressuring liquidity.

Program & Customer Risks

Dependence on defense and government programs exposes Karman to funding interruptions and procurement shifts. A federal shutdown can delay bookings and payments, while customer dual sourcing may blunt program revenue ramps and make long‑term backlog less certain, pressuring growth durability.

Karman Holdings Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Karman Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, Karman Space and Defense, engages in designing, testing, manufacturing, and sale of mission-critical systems for missile and defense, space programs, hypersonic, and launch vehicle markets. It also supplies metallic and composite flight hardware and sub-assemblies. In addition, the company provides solutions for payload protection and deployment systems, aerodynamic interstage systems, and propulsion systems. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Huntington Beach, California. Karman Holdings Inc. is a subsidiary of TCFIII Spaceco SPV LP.

How the Company Makes Money

Karman Holdings Inc. generates revenue primarily through the performance of its subsidiary companies, which operate in diverse industries. The company's revenue model is based on a combination of equity stakes, management fees, and profit-sharing agreements. Key revenue streams include dividends from profitable subsidiaries, consulting and advisory fees for operational improvements, and potential capital gains from the sale of underperforming assets. Additionally, Karman may engage in strategic partnerships with other firms to enhance its service offerings and expand its market reach, which contributes to its overall earnings.

Karman Holdings Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (78) shows strong growth and improving profitability, and cash flow is improving (65). However, the balance sheet is a major constraint (40) due to high leverage and negative equity, which materially raises financial risk.

Income Statement

Karman Holdings Inc. has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The company's gross profit margin remains healthy, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin shows improvement, turning positive in 2024, which is a notable achievement. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting solid operational performance.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage, with a substantial debt-to-equity ratio due to negative equity, posing a risk. However, the company's assets have grown, showing expansion potential. The negative stockholders' equity is a concern, indicating potential financial instability.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows positive free cash flow growth and improved operating cash flow, which are positive indicators of liquidity and operational efficiency. However, reliance on financing activities and previous negative free cash flow highlight potential cash flow management challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	428.25M	345.25M	280.71M	226.31M
Gross Profit	171.14M	132.11M	105.55M	80.95M
EBITDA	105.09M	96.36M	75.67M	55.21M
Net Income	11.34M	12.70M	4.36M	-14.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	968.08M	773.96M	710.83M	682.59M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	18.66M	11.53M	5.45M	6.63M
Total Debt	483.69M	447.87M	409.33M	403.58M
Total Liabilities	598.96M	577.96M	528.37M	505.00M
Stockholders Equity	369.12M	196.00M	182.46M	177.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-43.02M	11.39M	3.55M	-27.16M
Operating Cash Flow	-23.27M	26.65M	20.33M	-5.89M
Investing Cash Flow	-152.18M	-46.24M	-16.21M	-21.26M
Financing Cash Flow	186.44M	25.67M	-5.29M	16.73M

Karman Holdings Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 83.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KRMN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 83.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.58, above the 50-day MA of 72.79, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for KRMN.

Karman Holdings Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MOG.A	74 Outperform	$11.07B	42.64	13.33%	0.46%	7.11%	13.43%
LOAR	71 Outperform	$6.11B	98.64	6.56%	―	25.38%	237.96%
KRMN	67 Neutral	$11.06B	976.64	―	―	―	―
AMTM	67 Neutral	$7.36B	74.99	2.17%	―	―	―
HXL	64 Neutral	$7.01B	66.48	7.87%	0.89%	-0.37%	-34.97%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Karman Holdings Inc. Corporate Events

Karman Holdings to Acquire Seemann Composites and MSC

On January 7, 2026, Karman Holdings Inc. announced that on December 31, 2025, it entered into a definitive agreement for a subsidiary to acquire Seemann Composites and Materials Sciences LLC for total consideration of about $220 million in cash and stock, in a deal that is expected to close in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions. The acquisition substantially expands Karman’s presence in the strategic maritime defense market by adding Seemann and MSC’s long-standing expertise and proprietary composite systems for submarines, unmanned and surface naval platforms, deepening Karman’s advanced materials IP portfolio, broadening production capabilities in areas such as acoustic mitigation, propulsion and missile launch systems, and is expected to be immediately accretive in 2026 to revenue, backlog, EBITDA, earnings per share and cash flow while enhancing its positioning on multi-decade, high-priority U.S. Navy programs and maintaining its strong margin profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (KRMN) stock is a Hold with a $97.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Karman Holdings Inc. stock, see the KRMN Stock Forecast page.