Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

204 Followers

Top Page

Karman Holdings Inc.

(NYSE:KRMN)

Select Model

Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:63Neutral

Price Target:

$67.00

▲(4.51% Upside)

Karman Holdings Inc. has a solid financial performance with strong revenue and profit growth, but high leverage and negative equity are significant risks. The technical analysis indicates bullish momentum, though overbought signals suggest caution. Valuation uncertainty due to missing metrics further impacts the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates expanding market reach and successful product adoption, enhancing long-term business sustainability.

Operational Efficiency

Efficient cost management supports sustainable margins, contributing to long-term profitability and competitive advantage.

Cash Flow Improvements

Improved cash flow enhances liquidity and operational efficiency, providing a stable foundation for future growth and investment.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses financial risks, potentially limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Negative Equity

Negative equity suggests financial instability, which can hinder the company's ability to secure financing and invest in growth.

Reliance on Financing Activities

Dependence on external financing can strain resources and limit strategic options, affecting long-term financial health.

Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$8.48B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.45M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.42

Revenue GrowthN/A

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees1,113

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryAerospace & Defense

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.10

Shares Outstanding132,322,430

10 Day Avg. Volume1,771,046

30 Day Avg. Volume1,445,343

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.84

Enterprise Value/Revenue23.24

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit58.77

Enterprise Value/Ebitda96.91

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$66.67

Price Target Upside3.99% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering7

Karman Holdings Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKarman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) is a diversified company involved primarily in the manufacturing and distribution of innovative consumer products and services across various sectors, including electronics, home goods, and health and wellness. The company focuses on delivering high-quality solutions that enhance everyday living, leveraging cutting-edge technologies and sustainable practices in its operations. Karman Holdings aims to build a strong brand presence through its commitment to quality and customer satisfaction.

How the Company Makes MoneyKarman Holdings Inc. generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of its consumer products across different categories. The company's core revenue model includes direct sales through both online platforms and brick-and-mortar retail partnerships. Additionally, Karman Holdings benefits from strategic collaborations with other brands and retailers, which expand its market reach and distribution capabilities. The company also explores licensing agreements for its proprietary technologies and products, providing an additional revenue source. Key factors contributing to its earnings include product innovation, effective marketing strategies, and a strong supply chain management that ensures efficient production and distribution.

Karman Holdings Inc. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Apr 14, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Karman Space & Defense showcased strong financial performance with record revenue and backlog, successful strategic initiatives including an IPO and debt refinancing, and strong positioning in defense and space markets. However, there are challenges related to share-based compensation impacting net income, uncertainties in government policies, and declining revenue from the SLS program.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Quarterly Financial Results

Karman Space & Defense reported record quarterly revenue of $100 million, a 20.6% year-over-year increase, and gross profit of $39.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $30.3 million, representing a 30% margin and a 25% year-over-year increase.

Significant Backlog and Revenue Visibility

The company achieved a record funded backlog of $636 million at the end of the first quarter and increased full-year 2025 revenue visibility to approximately 95% as of the end of April.

Strong Performance Across End Markets

Revenue in hypersonics and strategic missile defense grew by 21.1%, tactical missiles and integrated defense systems increased by 29.6%, and space and launch revenue grew by 12% year-over-year.

Successful IPO and Debt Refinancing

Karman successfully completed its IPO and refinanced its debt, reducing interest rates and extending maturities, which strengthened the balance sheet with $113.7 million in cash and cash equivalents.

Positive Demand Signals and Strategic Alignment

The company is well-positioned to benefit from increased defense spending, strong demand signals, and alignment with major space opportunities and national security priorities.

Negative Updates

Impact of Share-Based Compensation on Net Income

Approximately $8 million of share-based compensation expense related to the IPO affected net income, leading to increased general and administrative expenses and a net loss in the quarter.

Uncertainty in Government Initiatives

Potential impacts from trade and government efficiency initiatives, tariffs, and rare earth metal export limitations present risks, although Karman believes it is well-positioned to manage these challenges.

Decline in SLS Program Revenue

Revenue from the SLS program has significantly decreased and is expected to remain negligible in future forecasts.

Company Guidance

During the Karman Space & Defense First Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported record quarterly revenue of $100 million and a gross profit of $39.5 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $30 million and fully diluted adjusted earnings per share of $0.05. They achieved a record funded backlog of $636 million, increasing their revenue visibility for the full year 2025 to approximately 95% by the end of April. Year-over-year, the revenue increased by 20.6%, with notable growth in the hypersonics and strategic missile defense sector (21.1% increase), tactical missiles and integrated defense systems (29.6% increase), and space and launch sector (12% growth). The company expects a statutory tax rate of 24% and CapEx investments to represent 4% of revenue. For fiscal year 2025, Karman reaffirmed its guidance of total revenue between $423 million and $433 million, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $132 million and $137 million, representing growth rates of 24% and 27% respectively.

Karman Holdings Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Karman Holdings Inc. shows strong revenue and profit growth with efficient operations. However, high leverage and negative equity pose significant financial risks. Improvements in cash flow are promising, but financial stability needs attention.

Income Statement

Positive

Karman Holdings Inc. has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from 2023 to 2024. The company's gross profit margin remains healthy, indicating efficient cost management. Net profit margin shows improvement, turning positive in 2024, which is a notable achievement. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting solid operational performance.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet reveals high leverage, with a substantial debt-to-equity ratio due to negative equity, posing a risk. However, the company's assets have grown, showing expansion potential. The negative stockholders' equity is a concern, indicating potential financial instability.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow statement shows positive free cash flow growth and improved operating cash flow, which are positive indicators of liquidity and operational efficiency. However, reliance on financing activities and previous negative free cash flow highlight potential cash flow management challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	306.46M	345.25M	280.71M	226.31M
Gross Profit	121.20M	132.11M	105.55M	80.95M
EBITDA	73.51M	96.36M	75.67M	55.42M
Net Income	3.69M	12.70M	4.36M	-14.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	953.93M	773.96M	710.83M	682.59M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	27.44M	11.53M	5.45M	6.63M
Total Debt	485.78M	447.87M	409.33M	403.58M
Total Liabilities	504.29M	577.96M	528.37M	505.00M
Stockholders Equity	449.64M	196.00M	182.46M	177.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-36.18M	11.39M	3.55M	-27.16M
Operating Cash Flow	-23.40M	26.65M	20.33M	-5.89M
Investing Cash Flow	-145.21M	-46.24M	-16.21M	-21.26M
Financing Cash Flow	188.37M	25.67M	-5.29M	16.73M

Karman Holdings Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MOG.A	78 Outperform	6.20B	30.21	10.89%	0.59%	4.77%	4.50%
HXL	74 Outperform	4.94B	58.18	5.66%	1.06%	1.92%	-15.47%
LOAR	71 Outperform	7.37B	167.60	2.04%	―	26.15%	251.10%
KRMN	63 Neutral	$8.48B	―		―	―	―
AMTM	50 Neutral	5.41B	104.02	1.17%	―	0.00%	0.00%
SPR	41 Neutral	4.53B	-1.93	81.63%	―	-2.60%	-94.76%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

KRMN

Karman Holdings Inc.

64.11

32.11

100.34%

HXL

Hexcel

62.06

1.53

2.53%

MOG.A

Moog

195.78

-7.22

-3.56%

SPR

Spirit AeroSystems

38.56

5.77

17.60%

LOAR

Loar Holdings Inc.

78.72

3.09

4.09%

AMTM

Amentum Holdings, Inc.

22.24

-5.76

-20.57%

Karman Holdings Inc. Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing

Karman Holdings Completes Successful Public Offering

Neutral

Jul 25, 2025

On July 23, 2025, Karman Holdings Inc. priced an underwritten public offering of 21,000,000 shares of its common stock at $49.00 per share. The offering, which closed on July 25, 2025, was conducted by existing stockholders, who will receive all proceeds, while Karman will not benefit financially from this transaction. The underwriters, including Citigroup and Evercore ISI, were granted a 30-day option to purchase an additional 3,150,000 shares, which was fully exercised on July 24, 2025. The company agreed to a 90-day lock-up period, restricting the sale of additional shares without underwriters’ consent. This move is expected to strengthen Karman’s market position by enhancing liquidity and potentially increasing its stock’s market value.

Private Placements and FinancingFinancial Disclosures

Karman Holdings Announces Public Offering of Shares

Neutral

Jul 21, 2025

On July 21, 2025, Karman Holdings Inc. announced a public underwritten offering of 20,000,000 shares of its common stock by certain selling stockholders, with an option for underwriters to purchase an additional 3,000,000 shares. The company will not receive any proceeds from this offering. Concurrently, Trive Capital, the largest stockholder, will distribute its shares to its limited partners, effectively reducing its ownership to zero. This distribution is contingent on the offering’s completion, but the offering itself is not contingent on the distribution. Additionally, Karman released preliminary financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, showing significant growth in revenue and other financial metrics compared to the same period in 2024. The company expects to release final results on August 7, 2025.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 06, 2025