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Moog
(NYSE:MOG.A)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$441.00
▲(7.53% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (improving profitability and markedly lower leverage) and a constructive earnings call (raised EPS guidance, record backlog, and solid cash generation). Offsetting factors are a premium valuation (high P/E with a very low dividend yield) and a mixed near-term technical setup with the stock trading below its 20- and 50-day moving averages.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Moog's sharply reduced leverage and stronger equity base materially lower financial risk and increase strategic optionality. A fortified balance sheet supports program performance, cyclical headwinds, refinancing flexibility, and capital deployment for factories, R&D, or M&A over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Cash-flow conversion volatility
While FCF rebounded recently, inconsistent conversion and historical negative FCF raise uncertainty about the durability of internal funding. Variable conversion can constrain capital returns, acquisitions, and working-capital needs during demand shifts or investment cycles over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
Moog's sharply reduced leverage and stronger equity base materially lower financial risk and increase strategic optionality. A fortified balance sheet supports program performance, cyclical headwinds, refinancing flexibility, and capital deployment for factories, R&D, or M&A over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Moog (MOG.A) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.98B
Dividend Yield0.27%
Average Volume (3M)296.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)37.0
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth15.65%
EPS Growth78.52%
CountryUS
Employees13,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.91
Shares Outstanding28,443,048
10 Day Avg. Volume244,780
30 Day Avg. Volume296,133
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.90
Price to Book (P/B)3.25
Price to Sales (P/S)1.68
P/FCF Ratio50.51
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$462.33Price Target Upside12.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)11.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.38B
Moog Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Moog Inc. (MOG.A) designs and manufactures high-performance motion control and fluid control products and systems used in demanding applications across aerospace and defense, industrial automation, and other specialized markets. The company’s offe...
How the Company Makes Money
Moog makes money primarily by selling engineered motion and fluid control components and systems to OEMs, integrators, and end users, with revenue typically recognized from product shipments and contract-based system deliveries. Key revenue stream...
Moog Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: record quarter revenue (+15% YoY), double‑digit segment growth, margin expansion (16.4%, +280 bps), 60% EPS growth, robust free cash flow ($133M) and upgraded FY26 guidance. Much of the quarter’s outperformance was aided by one‑time items (tariff refund, R&D tax credit), and management highlighted execution and scaling risks — particularly capacity, workforce and customer concentration in the fast‑growing data center business. On balance, recurring business trends (broad segment growth, defense/missile and data center demand) and improved cash/leverage position outweigh the transitory benefits and operational scaling risks.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Backlog Growth
Third-quarter sales of $1.1 billion, up 15% year‑over‑year; 12‑month backlog increased 23% year‑over‑year, signaling strong near‑term demand visibility.
Negative Updates
One‑Time Items Inflate Adjusted Results
A substantial portion of the quarter's margin and EPS expansion was driven by one‑time items: $30M tariff refund (270 bps / ~$0.70 EPS) and prior‑year R&D tax credit ($35M). Management excluded a net benefit of $1.02 per share this quarter, signaling some non‑recurring support for results.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Backlog Growth
Third-quarter sales of $1.1 billion, up 15% year‑over‑year; 12‑month backlog increased 23% year‑over‑year, signaling strong near‑term demand visibility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised fiscal 2026 guidance, increasing consolidated sales by $50 million (Space & Defense +$10M, Military Aircraft +$10M, Industrial +$30M), boosting adjusted operating margin by 70 basis points to 14.1%, and raising adjusted EPS guidance by $1.51 to $11.65 ± $0.10; they now expect free cash flow conversion of about 70% and lower capital expenditures due to timing. The update reflects a $30 million tariff refund (about 270 bps of operating margin and roughly $0.70 of EPS), a $35 million prior‑year R&D tax‑credit benefit and an $8 million one‑time tax benefit (with ~$13 million of simplification charges excluded from adjusted results). For context, Q3 results driving the update included $1.1 billion of sales, adjusted operating margin of 16.4% (up 280 bps YoY), adjusted EPS of $3.72 (up 60% YoY), $133 million of free cash flow in the quarter, and net leverage of ~1.5x.Moog Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.32B | 3.86B | 3.61B | 3.32B | 3.04B | 2.85B |
| Gross Profit | 1.21B | 1.06B | 996.92M | 810.96M | 745.51M | 697.39M |
| EBITDA | 613.28M | 488.45M | 423.03M | 369.86M | 328.13M | 327.82M |
| Net Income | 377.12M | 235.03M | 207.22M | 171.00M | 155.18M | 157.22M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.77B | 4.43B | 4.08B | 3.81B | 3.43B | 3.43B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 67.75M | 62.01M | 61.69M | 68.96M | 103.89M | 99.60M |
| Total Debt | 1.15B | 945.69M | 874.14M | 863.09M | 837.79M | 903.72M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.55B | 2.43B | 2.25B | 2.17B | 2.00B | 2.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.22B | 1.99B | 1.83B | 1.64B | 1.44B | 1.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 243.90M | 128.35M | 46.33M | -37.35M | 107.37M | 164.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 370.25M | 273.09M | 202.34M | 135.94M | 246.80M | 293.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -124.97M | -175.26M | -159.62M | -163.15M | -83.32M | -191.16M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -245.72M | -98.29M | -48.66M | -23.02M | -134.91M | -87.00M |
Moog Risk Analysis
Moog disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Moog reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Moog Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $13.98B | 37.05 | 18.00% | 0.29% | 15.65% | 78.52% | |
73 Outperform | $7.87B | 52.04 | 11.41% | 0.63% | 4.63% | 84.70% | |
72 Outperform | $5.25B | 25.87 | 4.44% | ― | 11.44% | 291.35% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $6.67B | -466.50 | -0.96% | ― | 8.95% | 78.82% | |
57 Neutral | $8.22B | 217.66 | 9.42% | ― | 50.23% | 365.67% |
* Industrials Sector Average
MOG.A
Moog
441.21
249.80
130.51%
HXL
Hexcel
104.07
43.00
70.42%
MRCY
Mercury Systems
111.12
44.32
66.35%
AMTM
Amentum Holdings, Inc.
21.47
-3.66
-14.56%
KRMN
Karman Holdings Inc.
62.01
10.23
19.76%
Moog Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Moog Posts Record Quarter and Raises 2026 Guidance
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
On July 31, 2026, Moog Inc. reported record fiscal third-quarter 2026 results, with net sales up 15% year on year to $1.1 billion and adjusted operating margin expanding 280 basis points to 16.4%. The company’s Board also declared a quarterl...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Moog Expands Board, Adds Experienced Industry Director
Positive
Jul 6, 2026
On July 6, 2026, Moog Inc. announced that it had expanded its Board of Directors from nine to ten members and elected Carl R. Christenson as a Class A director, effective July 1, 2026, with his initial term running until the next annual meeting of...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.