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Sleep Number (SNBR)
NASDAQ:SNBR

Sleep Number (SNBR) AI Stock Analysis

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Sleep Number

(NASDAQ:SNBR)

Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▼(-1.41%Downside)
Sleep Number's overall financial instability, combined with bearish technical indicators and negative valuation metrics, leads to a low stock score. Strategic efforts in cost reduction and leadership changes provide some optimism but are overshadowed by significant financial and operational challenges.

Sleep Number (SNBR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Sleep Number Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSleep Number Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, offers sleep solutions and services in the United States. The company designs, manufactures, markets, retails, and services beds, pillows, sheets, and other bedding products under the Sleep Number name. It also provides adjustable bases under the FlextFit, and smart beds under the Sleep Number 360 brands. The company sells its products directly to consumers through retail, online, phone, and chat as well as through its e-commerce activities. As of January 2, 2022, it operated approximately 648 retail stores in 50 states. The company was formerly known as Select Comfort Corporation and changed its name to Sleep Number Corporation in November 2017. Sleep Number Corporation was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
How the Company Makes MoneySleep Number Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Sleep Number 360® smart beds and related bedding products. The company’s revenue model is based on direct-to-consumer sales, leveraging its network of over 600 retail stores across the United States and its online e-commerce platform. Key revenue streams include the sale of mattresses, smart beds, adjustable bases, and bedding accessories. Sleep Number also offers sleep health solutions and related technology services that contribute to its earnings. The company benefits from proprietary technology and a strong brand presence, enabling it to maintain a loyal customer base and command premium pricing. Partnerships with health and wellness organizations further enhance its product offerings and market reach. Additionally, Sleep Number invests in marketing and customer service initiatives to drive brand awareness and customer satisfaction, thereby supporting its revenue growth.

Sleep Number Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -8.86%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant challenges, including a notable decline in net sales and adjusted EBITDA. However, there were positive developments in gross profit margin expansion and cost reduction plans. The overall sentiment reflects a company facing significant headwinds but making strategic efforts to stabilize and improve efficiency.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Gross Profit Margin Expansion
Gross profit margin expanded to 61.2% in the first quarter, up 250 basis points versus last year, driven by operational efficiencies and product mix improvements.
Positive Consumer Response to Climate Series Beds
The Climate Series beds helped expand the Average Revenue per Unit (ARU) by approximately 4% compared to last year.
Operating Cost Improvements
First quarter operating expenses, excluding restructuring and onetime costs, were $237 million, a $23 million or 9% improvement over last year.
Planned Annualized Cost Reductions
The company plans $80 million to $100 million in annualized cost reductions, focusing on organizational efficiency and marketing.
Negative Updates
Decline in Net Sales
Net sales for the first quarter were $393 million, a decrease of 16% compared to the prior year.
Decrease in Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $22 million, a decrease of $15 million from the prior year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.6%, 230 basis points lower than the previous year.
Tariff Impact Concerns
Potential unmitigated tariff impact estimated at $30 million for 2025, with $17 million expected to be offset through partnerships and supply chain flexibility.
Challenges in Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence has been declining since February, impacting willingness to spend and contributing to top-line pressure.
Company Guidance
In the Q1 2025 earnings call, Sleep Number provided several key financial and strategic metrics. Net sales for the quarter were reported at $393 million, marking a 16% decline compared to the previous year. However, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 61.2%, an increase of 250 basis points from last year, aided by operational efficiencies and a favorable product mix. Operating expenses totaled $237 million, showing a $23 million or 9% improvement year-over-year, excluding restructuring and onetime costs. Adjusted EBITDA was $22 million, reflecting a decrease of $15 million from the prior year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.6%, down 230 basis points. The company is strategically managing its debt, maintaining a leverage ratio of 4.46x EBITDAR, within the covenant maximum of 4.75x. Sleep Number has also outlined cost reduction goals, estimating an annualized reduction of $80 million to $100 million, aiming to stabilize and position for future growth despite the challenging consumer environment. The company is also navigating tariff impacts, with an unmitigated effect estimated at $30 million for 2025, while aiming to offset $17 million through supplier partnerships and supply chain flexibility.

Sleep Number Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sleep Number is facing severe financial challenges, with declining revenues, negative net income, and liquidity issues. The balance sheet shows financial instability due to high leverage and negative equity. Cash flows are negative, indicating liquidity constraints.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows declining revenues with a negative net income for the TTM period, indicating profitability challenges. Gross profit margin remains relatively stable at 60.4% for TTM, but the net profit margin is negative due to the net loss. The revenue growth rate is negative, reflecting a decrease compared to previous periods, suggesting possible market or operational issues.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet highlights financial instability with negative stockholders' equity, indicating more liabilities than assets. The debt-to-equity ratio is negative due to negative equity, pointing to high leverage. This poses a risk to financial stability and solvency, although the equity ratio is not applicable due to negative equity.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating and free cash flows for the TTM, indicating liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, which is concerning for cash generation from operations. The free cash flow growth rate is also negative, emphasizing declining cash reserves and potential liquidity constraints.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.61B1.68B1.89B2.11B2.18B1.86B
Gross Profit
972.56M1.00B1.09B1.20B1.32B1.16B
EBIT
19.18M22.87M22.94M67.88M193.54M184.90M
EBITDA
84.02M88.07M95.34M135.28M253.93M246.46M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-21.50M-20.33M-15.29M36.61M153.75M139.19M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.69M1.95M2.54M1.79M2.39M4.24M
Total Assets
836.79M860.81M950.88M953.94M919.54M800.14M
Total Debt
934.61M936.11M972.65M896.01M791.05M589.36M
Net Debt
932.92M934.16M970.12M894.22M788.66M585.12M
Total Liabilities
1.29B1.31B1.39B1.39B1.34B1.02B
Stockholders Equity
-456.84M-451.59M-441.93M-438.18M-424.95M-223.98M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-28.02M3.64M-66.08M-33.32M233.11M240.59M
Operating Cash Flow
-9.23M27.14M-9.03M36.14M300.01M279.66M
Investing Cash Flow
-18.64M-26.29M-58.35M-70.61M-66.64M-39.02M
Financing Cash Flow
27.49M-1.44M68.13M33.87M-235.22M-237.99M

Sleep Number Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price7.10
Price Trends
50DMA
7.78
Positive
100DMA
10.28
Negative
200DMA
12.98
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.19
Positive
RSI
40.37
Neutral
STOCH
5.30
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SNBR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.65, below the 50-day MA of 7.78, and below the 200-day MA of 12.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.30 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SNBR.

Sleep Number Risk Analysis

Sleep Number disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sleep Number reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sleep Number Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
LZLZB
72
Outperform
$1.60B13.1212.40%2.27%1.81%8.09%
ETETD
72
Outperform
$677.71M11.6512.09%5.85%-6.32%-18.35%
62
Neutral
$6.90B11.052.80%4.27%2.67%-24.92%
61
Neutral
$249.62M23.716.73%-0.77%-8.89%
58
Neutral
$1.19B41.492.28%4.26%-2.68%-56.16%
49
Neutral
$80.35M-199.78%-10.41%53.85%
43
Neutral
$176.30M9.10%-12.36%37.69%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SNBR
Sleep Number
7.10
-5.50
-43.65%
ETD
Ethan Allen
26.27
0.64
2.50%
MLKN
MillerKnoll
16.91
-7.35
-30.30%
LZB
La-Z-Boy Incorporated
38.28
5.23
15.82%
PRPL
Purple Innovation
0.71
-0.30
-29.70%
LOVE
The Lovesac Company
16.65
-7.60
-31.34%

Sleep Number Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Sleep Number Shareholders Reject Key Board Amendments
Negative
May 29, 2025

At Sleep Number‘s 2025 Annual Meeting, shareholders voted on several proposals, including the election of directors and amendments to the company’s articles and bylaws. While the election of directors and some proposals, such as the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm, were approved, key amendments to declassify the board and eliminate supermajority voting requirements did not pass. The board expressed disappointment at the failure to secure the necessary two-thirds majority for these amendments and plans to resubmit them at the 2026 Annual Meeting, aiming to declassify the board by 2027 contingent on shareholder approval.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNBR) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sleep Number stock, see the SNBR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Sleep Number Announces Executive Resignation and Transition
Neutral
May 28, 2025

On May 23, 2025, Sleep Number Corporation announced that Joel Laing, Vice President, Treasurer, and Chief Accounting Officer, will resign effective June 5, 2025. His departure is amicable and not due to any disagreements with the company. Francis Lee, the Chief Financial Officer, will assume the role of principal accounting officer starting June 6, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (SNBR) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sleep Number stock, see the SNBR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sleep Number Restructures Leadership, Eliminates Key Role
Neutral
Apr 30, 2025

On April 25, 2025, Sleep Number Corporation eliminated the role of Executive Vice President and Chief Innovation Officer, previously held by Annie Bloomquist, as part of a broader organizational redesign. Bloomquist will serve in an advisory role until May 31, 2025, to aid in the transition. The company announced changes to its Executive Leadership Team to enhance efficiency and accountability, with new roles and responsibilities aimed at strengthening company performance and improving customer engagement. These changes are intended to streamline decision-making and better position the company to respond to industry and macroeconomic shifts.

Financial Disclosures
Sleep Number to Announce Q1 2025 Results Soon
Neutral
Apr 16, 2025

On April 16, 2025, Sleep Number Corporation announced it will release its fiscal first quarter results for 2025 on April 30, 2025, after market close. The company will host a conference call to discuss these results, providing stakeholders with insights into its financial performance and strategic direction.

Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Sleep Number Appoints Linda Findley as New CEO
Negative
Mar 31, 2025

On March 5, 2025, Sleep Number Corporation announced the appointment of Linda Findley as President, CEO, and Director, effective April 7, 2025. Following a significant decline in the company’s stock price after reporting its 2024 financial results, an amendment to Findley’s offer letter was made on March 31, 2025, to restructure her equity inducement grant. The amendment aims to mitigate shareholder dilution by using a notional share price based on the average closing price in 2024 and includes additional performance metrics for vesting conditions. The amendment also introduces a cash sign-on bonus, part of which Findley will use to purchase company stock, aligning her interests with those of the shareholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.