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Sleep Number (SNBR)
NASDAQ:SNBR

Sleep Number (SNBR) AI Stock Analysis

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Sleep Number

(NASDAQ:SNBR)

42Neutral
Sleep Number's stock score is primarily impacted by its weak financial performance, characterized by declining revenues and negative profitability. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and valuation metrics are unattractive. While there were some positive highlights in the earnings call regarding cost reductions and margin improvements, they are overshadowed by broader market challenges and declining sales.

Sleep Number (SNBR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Sleep Number Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSleep Number Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, offers sleep solutions and services in the United States. The company designs, manufactures, markets, retails, and services beds, pillows, sheets, and other bedding products under the Sleep Number name. It also provides adjustable bases under the FlextFit, and smart beds under the Sleep Number 360 brands. The company sells its products directly to consumers through retail, online, phone, and chat as well as through its e-commerce activities. As of January 2, 2022, it operated approximately 648 retail stores in 50 states. The company was formerly known as Select Comfort Corporation and changed its name to Sleep Number Corporation in November 2017. Sleep Number Corporation was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
How the Company Makes MoneySleep Number Corporation generates revenue primarily through the sale of its Sleep Number mattresses and adjustable bases, which are its flagship products. The company utilizes a direct-to-consumer model, selling products through its own retail stores, e-commerce platform, and select retail partners. A significant revenue stream comes from the sale of sleep-related accessories, such as pillows, bedding, and mattress pads. Furthermore, Sleep Number leverages its proprietary SleepIQ technology, which offers sleep tracking and analytics, adding value to its product offerings and driving customer engagement. The company also benefits from its brand recognition and customer loyalty programs, which help maintain a strong market presence and encourage repeat purchases.

Sleep Number Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Sleep Number is facing significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and negative profitability. The balance sheet shows high leverage and negative equity, indicating financial instability. However, there is some improvement in operating cash flow, which provides a slightly positive outlook.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The company has experienced declining revenues over the past few years, with a notable drop in 2024 compared to 2023. The gross profit margin remains healthy, but the net profit margin is negative due to net losses recorded in recent periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are low, indicating challenges in maintaining operational profitability.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The company's balance sheet shows high leverage with negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio cannot be calculated due to negative equity, and the absence of total assets data makes it challenging to assess the overall financial position.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Operating cash flow turned positive in 2024, showing improvement from the previous year. However, free cash flow remains low, reflecting limited cash available after capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio shows some strength in cash generation relative to reported net losses.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.68B1.89B2.11B2.18B1.86B
Gross Profit
1.00B1.09B1.20B1.32B1.16B
EBIT
22.87M22.94M67.88M193.54M184.90M
EBITDA
89.22M95.34M135.28M253.93M246.46M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-20.33M-15.29M36.61M153.75M139.19M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.95M2.54M1.79M2.39M4.24M
Total Assets
860.81M950.88M953.94M919.54M800.14M
Total Debt
936.11M972.65M896.01M791.05M589.36M
Net Debt
934.16M970.12M894.22M788.66M585.12M
Total Liabilities
1.31B1.39B1.39B1.34B1.02B
Stockholders Equity
-451.59M-441.93M-438.18M-424.95M-223.98M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
3.64M-66.08M-33.32M233.11M240.59M
Operating Cash Flow
27.14M-9.03M36.14M300.01M279.66M
Investing Cash Flow
-26.29M-58.35M-70.61M-66.64M-39.02M
Financing Cash Flow
-1.44M68.13M33.87M-235.22M-237.99M

Sleep Number Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price6.44
Price Trends
50DMA
13.20
Negative
100DMA
14.40
Negative
200DMA
13.88
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.97
Negative
RSI
31.03
Neutral
STOCH
26.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SNBR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.73, below the 50-day MA of 13.20, and below the 200-day MA of 13.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SNBR.

Sleep Number Risk Analysis

Sleep Number disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sleep Number reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Sleep Number Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
LZLZB
73
Outperform
$1.60B13.2612.40%2.12%1.81%8.09%
SGSGI
68
Neutral
$12.17B27.0587.10%0.89%0.11%3.48%
MHMHK
67
Neutral
$7.12B13.986.82%-2.68%
LELEG
60
Neutral
$1.08B-50.58%7.64%-7.27%-272.76%
59
Neutral
$12.26B11.12-0.55%3.78%1.42%-20.63%
43
Neutral
$80.91M-144.37%-5.48%17.33%
42
Neutral
$144.19M9.10%-10.87%-33.24%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SNBR
Sleep Number
6.44
-8.68
-57.41%
LZB
La-Z-Boy Incorporated
38.68
2.55
7.06%
LEG
Leggett & Platt
7.98
-10.56
-56.96%
MHK
Mohawk
113.74
-14.73
-11.47%
SGI
Somnigroup International
58.34
3.38
6.15%
PRPL
Purple Innovation
0.75
-1.09
-59.24%

Sleep Number Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 5, 2025 | % Change Since: -50.04% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant improvements in EBITDA and gross margin due to effective cost management and operational efficiency. However, these positives were offset by declines in net sales and challenging market conditions, including weakened consumer sentiment and economic pressures.
Highlights
Significant EBITDA Growth
Delivered a 43% year-over-year increase in fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA, with a full year adjusted EBITDA of $120 million, in line with the midpoint of guidance.
Gross Margin Improvement
Fourth quarter gross margin reached 59.9%, resulting in a full year gross margin of 59.6%, a 190 basis point increase over 2023.
Cost Reductions Exceed Expectations
Achieved a $28 million year-over-year reduction in fourth quarter operating expenses, with 2024 full year cost reductions of $88 million, nearly double the initial targets.
Product Mix and Operational Efficiency
Favorable product mix and cost efficiencies, including material cost reductions and supplier negotiations, contributed to the gross margin increase.
Lowlights
Decline in Net Sales
Fourth quarter net sales declined 12% year-over-year to $377 million, slightly below expectations.
Challenging Consumer Environment
Consumer sentiment dropped further in February 2025, with a significant 19% drop in buying conditions for durables.
Tariff and Economic Pressure
Potential tariffs were announced, and inflation concerns returned, affecting consumer purchasing power.
Store Count Reduction Impact
Fourth quarter net sales included 1 to 2 points of pressure due to a 5% reduction in stores year-over-year.
Company Guidance
In the Sleep Number Q4 and Full Year 2024 earnings call, the company reported a 43% year-over-year increase in fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA, reaching $120 million for the full year, aligning with the midpoint of their guidance. The gross margin improved to 59.9% in Q4, contributing to a full-year gross margin of 59.6%, a 190 basis point increase over 2023. However, Q4 net sales declined 12% year-over-year to $377 million. The company reduced media spend by 18% in Q4 and 9% for the year, aiming to maximize EBITDA amidst challenging market conditions. Operational efficiency improvements resulted in a $28 million reduction in Q4 operating expenses and $88 million in cost reductions for the year. Sleep Number's demand year-to-date in 2025 remains down double digits, with ongoing macroeconomic challenges affecting consumer sentiment and spending. The company has amended its 2025 financial covenants for increased flexibility and is exploring debt restructuring options.

Sleep Number Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Sleep Number Restructures Board with Stadium Capital
Neutral
Mar 13, 2025

On March 13, 2025, Sleep Number Corporation announced an agreement with its largest shareholder, Stadium Capital Management, to restructure its Board of Directors. This agreement involves the retirement of five current board members, including Michael J. Harrison and Barbara R. Matas, as part of a strategy to refresh and reduce the board’s size. The restructuring aims to enhance the company’s agility and focus on strengthening performance amid challenging market conditions. The company appreciates the contributions of the retiring directors and looks forward to working with the refreshed board to drive Sleep Number’s transformation and growth.

Financial Disclosures
Sleep Number to Release Q4 and 2024 Earnings
Neutral
Feb 18, 2025

On February 18, 2025, Sleep Number Corporation announced its upcoming fiscal fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings results release and conference call scheduled for March 5, 2025. The announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting market perceptions and investor decisions.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.