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Stitch Fix (SFIX)
NASDAQ:SFIX
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Stitch Fix
(NASDAQ:SFIX)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(25.00% Upside)
Stitch Fix's overall score is primarily influenced by its challenging financial performance, characterized by declining revenues and profitability issues. Despite this, positive earnings call sentiment and technical indicators provide some optimism. However, the negative valuation metrics weigh heavily on the stock's attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Return to Revenue Growth
The return to revenue growth indicates Stitch Fix's ability to recover and expand its market presence, suggesting potential for sustained business improvement.
Increase in Average Order Value (AOV)
Consistent growth in AOV reflects enhanced customer engagement and satisfaction, which can drive long-term revenue and profitability improvements.
Successful Transformation Strategy
Implementing retail best practices and improving client experience positions Stitch Fix for sustained competitive advantage and market relevance.
Negative Factors
Decline in Active Clients
A decline in active clients suggests challenges in customer retention and acquisition, potentially impacting future revenue growth and market share.
Macroeconomic and Tariff Challenges
External economic pressures and tariff changes can affect consumer spending and cost structures, posing risks to profitability and strategic planning.
Gross Margin Decline
A decline in gross margin indicates pressure on product pricing and cost efficiency, which can hinder profitability and financial health over time.
Stitch Fix (SFIX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$537.11M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.17
Revenue Growth-5.26%
EPS Growth79.25%
CountryUS
Employees4,570
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.07
Shares Outstanding118,557,930
10 Day Avg. Volume2,020,112
30 Day Avg. Volume2,299,555
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.27
Price to Book (P/B)3.00
Price to Sales (P/S)0.48
P/FCF Ratio65.63
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.84
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-27.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.00Price Target Upside50.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Stitch Fix Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionStitch Fix (SFIX) is an online personal styling service that operates in the retail and e-commerce sector, specializing in curated clothing and accessory offerings for men, women, and children. Customers receive personalized selections of apparel based on their individual preferences, sizes, and style profiles, which are delivered directly to their homes. The company's unique model combines data analytics with human stylists to create a tailored shopping experience, allowing clients to discover items they might not have selected on their own.
How the Company Makes MoneyStitch Fix generates revenue primarily through its direct-to-consumer sales model. Customers pay a styling fee for each shipment, which is applied as a credit toward any items they choose to purchase. Additionally, the company earns revenue from the sale of clothing and accessories, which are priced competitively within the market. Key revenue streams include the styling fees, the markup on purchased items, and subscription-based services that encourage customer retention. Significant partnerships with various clothing brands enable Stitch Fix to offer a diverse range of products. The company's use of data analytics to refine its inventory and customer recommendations also plays a crucial role in enhancing sales and improving customer satisfaction.
Stitch Fix Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 24, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a generally positive sentiment with strong revenue growth, market share gains, and innovative use of AI, despite challenges such as a decline in active clients and increased transportation costs.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Stitch Fix reported a 4.4% adjusted revenue growth for Q4, with revenue of $311.2 million, marking the second consecutive quarter of revenue growth and exceeding guidance.
Market Share Gains
The company gained market share in the U.S. apparel market, as noted by Circana data, driven by improvements in client experience and assortment.
Growth in Average Order Value
Average order value (AOV) grew 12% year-over-year, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of AOV growth, driven by higher items per Fix and an increase in fixed average unit retail (AUR) by 7.6% year-over-year.
Expansion in Men's and Women's Lines
Both the women's and men's lines of business accelerated revenue growth in Q4, driven by expansion into non-apparel categories and the infusion of established brands.
Positive Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $8.7 million or 2.8% of revenue, ahead of guidance, contributing to a full-year adjusted EBITDA of $49.1 million, up 170 basis points compared to FY '24.
Introduction of AI Innovations
Stitch Fix is leveraging generative AI to enhance personalization, including the rollout of an AI style assistant and style visualization feature called Vision.
Cost Structure Improvements
The company reduced overall SG&A spend by $124 million in FY '25 and achieved the highest full-year contribution margin in the last decade.
Negative Updates
Decline in Active Clients
Active clients were down 7.9% year-over-year and 1.9% quarter-over-quarter, with sequential net losses attributed to seasonality.
Impact of Higher Transportation Costs
Q4 gross margin decreased 100 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to higher transportation costs and a mix shift towards non-apparel categories.
Company Guidance
During Stitch Fix's Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported a 4.4% adjusted revenue growth for the quarter, with revenue amounting to $311.2 million, surpassing their guidance. This marks their second consecutive quarter of revenue growth, with gains in the U.S. apparel market confirmed by Circana data. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $8.7 million or 2.8% of revenue, again exceeding guidance. The company noted an increase in average order value (AOV) by 12% year-over-year, driven by a 7.6% increase in average unit retail (AUR) and a greater penetration of larger Fix orders. The men’s business showed double-digit revenue growth in Q4, and the company experienced improvements in active client growth rates for five consecutive quarters. For Fiscal Year 2025, Stitch Fix achieved a contribution margin at a decade-high and expanded their adjusted EBITDA margin by 170 basis points. They anticipate full-year revenue growth in FY 2026, expecting active client growth to continue improving throughout the year, while maintaining a disciplined approach to growth investments.Stitch Fix Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Stitch Fix is facing declining revenues and persistent profitability issues, with negative net profit margins and operational inefficiencies. However, the company maintains manageable leverage and some cash flow resilience, which slightly offsets these challenges.Income Statement
Stitch Fix has faced a consistent decline in revenue growth, with the latest TTM showing a decrease in total revenue. The gross profit margin for TTM is 44.65%, which is somewhat stable. However, the net profit margin remains negative at -4.44%, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, indicating manageable leverage with a slight improvement in stockholders' equity. The equity ratio stands at 41.34% for TTM, suggesting a decent level of financial stability. However, the overall decline in total assets over the years could be a concern for future financial health.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Free cash flow has seen fluctuations but remains positive in the TTM period, showing some resilience. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting that the company is generating cash flow despite net losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio also indicates that cash flow is not robust enough to cover net income losses entirely.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.27B | 1.27B | 1.34B | 1.59B | 2.02B | 2.10B |
| Gross Profit | 562.94M | 562.94M | 592.04M | 675.61M | 886.67M | 947.64M |
| EBITDA | -16.32M | -28.84M | -88.94M | -113.16M | -148.76M | -33.43M |
| Net Income | -28.74M | -28.74M | -128.84M | -171.97M | -207.12M | -8.88M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 480.62M | 480.62M | 486.86M | 614.48M | 764.53M | 819.15M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 234.85M | 234.85M | 246.97M | 257.60M | 212.98M | 231.33M |
| Total Debt | 93.51M | 93.51M | 117.50M | 154.76M | 170.35M | 147.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 277.64M | 277.64M | 299.84M | 367.17M | 441.88M | 358.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 202.98M | 202.98M | 187.02M | 247.31M | 322.65M | 460.85M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.28M | 9.28M | 14.24M | 38.82M | 9.04M | -50.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 25.57M | 25.57M | 28.21M | 57.83M | 55.40M | -15.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -63.92M | -69.84M | -78.74M | 64.33M | 10.23M | 39.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -12.43M | 0.00 | -15.49M | -15.54M | -60.25M | -38.88M |
Stitch Fix Technical Analysis
Negative
4.00
Price Trends
4.57
Negative
4.70
Negative
4.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
38.55
Neutral
10.12
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SFIX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.29, below the 50-day MA of 4.57, and below the 200-day MA of 4.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SFIX.
Stitch Fix Risk Analysis
Stitch Fix disclosed 45 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Stitch Fix reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Stitch Fix Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $209.08M | 5.70 | 34.74% | 2.28% | -2.37% | -16.40% | |
55 Neutral | $537.11M | ― | -14.79% | ― | -5.26% | 79.25% | |
46 Neutral | $155.62M | ― | ― | ― | -12.08% | 93.16% | |
45 Neutral | $39.01M | ― | -43.51% | ― | -11.10% | -10.31% | |
44 Neutral | $111.07M | 35.90 | ― | ― | -5.76% | -75.71% | |
43 Neutral | $32.11M | ― | ― | ― | 0.20% | 18.30% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SFIX
Stitch Fix
4.00
-0.20
-4.76%
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7.02
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-56.93%
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JILL
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CURV
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RENT
Rent the Runway
4.61
-4.08
-46.95%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.