Septerna, Inc. (SEPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.08B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 310.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.35
• Revenue Growth: 2147.20%
• EPS Growth: -269.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 75
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 44,906,376
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 348,518
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 310,299
• PEG Ratio: 0.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.23
• Price to Sales (P/S): 26.85
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.91
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 21.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 21.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -12.43
• 1Y Price Target: $41.50
• Price Target Upside: 64.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(3.30% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/10/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/10/26

The score is held back primarily by weak and inconsistent profitability despite improving financial signals (notably strong 2025 cash flow and revenue growth). Technicals are supportive with the stock in an uptrend, and corporate events are constructive following positive Phase 1 data and continued pipeline progress, while valuation remains pressured due to losses and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Cash Generation

A dramatic 2025 cash-flow turnaround provides durable operational flexibility: sustained positive operating and free cash flow can fund clinical programs and reduce near-term financing reliance, enabling multi-quarter development execution without immediate capital raises.

Revenue Growth

Sharp, recent revenue scaling suggests improving commercial traction or milestone-driven receipts that strengthen top-line momentum; sustained revenue growth supports pipeline funding, operational scaling, and decreases dependency on dilutive financing over the medium term.

Clinical & Pipeline De-risking

Proof-of-mechanism in Phase 1 materially de-risks SEP-631, increasing the program's long-term value and likelihood of advancing to registrational studies; progressing to Phase 2b and exploring multiple indications strengthens pipeline optionality and commercial upside.

Negative Factors

Profitability

Persisting, sizable net losses and negative margins reflect the company has not yet demonstrated consistent earnings power; over a 2–6 month horizon this limits internal funding resilience and keeps long-term sustainability contingent on future margin improvement or ongoing external funding.

Equity and Capital-structure Volatility

A swing from negative to strongly positive equity indicates material financing or accounting shifts and potential dilution history; such volatility signals reliance on capital markets and introduces execution risk around maintaining a stable capital base through multi-year clinical programs.

Cash-flow Durability Concerns

Year-to-year volatility in cash generation and a disconnect between strong 2025 cash flow and concurrent net losses raise questions about recurring cash sources; uncertain durability could force future fundraising or reprioritization of programs if exceptional items or non-recurring receipts drove the improvement.

Septerna, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Septerna, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) oral small molecule products candidates for the treatment of endocrinology, immunology and inflammation, and metabolic diseases. The company develops SEP-786, an oral small molecule PTH1R agonist for hypoparathyroidism; SEP-631, an oral small molecule MRGPRX2 NAM for chronic spontaneous urticaria and other mast cell diseases; TSHR Program, an oral small molecule TSHR NAM for Graves' disease and thyroid eye disease. It also develops oral small molecule single- and multi-incretin receptor agonists for metabolic disorders including obesity and type 2 diabetes. Septerna, Inc. was formerly known as GPCR NewCo, Inc. and changed its name to Septerna Inc. in June 2021. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

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Septerna, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue jumped sharply in 2025, and operating/free cash flow turned strongly positive, but profitability remains weak with a large net loss and historically unstable results. Balance sheet leverage is low, yet prior negative equity and ongoing negative ROE point to execution and sustainability risk.

Income Statement

Annual revenue scaled sharply in 2025 (up ~108% to ~$46.0M), but profitability remains weak: 2025 net income was a sizable loss (~-$48.9M) and margins are still deeply negative. While the net loss improved versus 2024 (~-$71.8M), the business has not shown consistent earnings power across the period, with results swinging between small profits (2023) and large losses (2024–2025).

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears low, with debt-to-equity around ~0.06 in both 2024 and 2025 and total debt declining modestly in 2025. The main concern is equity volatility: equity was negative in 2022–2023 and then turned strongly positive in 2024–2025, suggesting meaningful financing or balance-sheet changes. Returns on equity are negative in 2023–2025, reflecting ongoing losses despite a healthier capital base.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved dramatically in 2025, with operating cash flow of ~$110.2M and free cash flow of ~$109.7M (up ~6% year over year), a major reversal from negative free cash flow in 2024 and 2023. However, cash flow has been volatile across years, and the disconnect between strong 2025 cash flow and a large 2025 net loss raises questions about the durability and source of cash generation.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	45.95M	1.07M	151.00K	0.00
Gross Profit	44.35M	1.07M	151.00K	0.00
EBITDA	-79.19M	-79.42M	-44.70M	-27.39M
Net Income	-48.88M	-71.80M	4.18M	-27.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	596.19M	456.55M	130.87M	36.12M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	391.09M	350.92M	88.48M	30.61M
Total Debt	23.63M	25.48M	12.57M	710.00K
Total Liabilities	214.26M	36.51M	169.24M	80.32M
Stockholders Equity	381.93M	420.05M	-38.37M	-44.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	109.67M	-69.57M	-41.60M	-24.59M
Operating Cash Flow	110.19M	-67.47M	-38.72M	-23.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-229.35M	-160.60M	22.12M	-1.29M
Financing Cash Flow	1.69M	377.78M	74.52M	30.05M

Septerna, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 25.17
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SEPN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 25.17 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.90, below the 50-day MA of 26.71, and above the 200-day MA of 19.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SEPN.

Septerna, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TBPH	67 Neutral	$700.80M	51.01	14.69%	―	27.12%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
DAWN	61 Neutral	$2.20B	-8.98	-23.43%	―	31.11%	-46.75%
SEPN	59 Neutral	$1.08B	-25.24	-14.83%	―	2147.20%	-269.99%
MRVI	53 Neutral	$784.05M	-3.61	-51.07%	―	-30.56%	48.79%
KURA	52 Neutral	$741.09M	-3.27	-102.59%	―	―	-5.18%
GOSS	40 Underperform	$109.20M	―	242.63%	―	-58.17%	-116.24%

Septerna, Inc. Corporate Events

Septerna Advances SEP-631 After Positive Phase 1 Results

On March 1, 2026, Septerna reported positive Phase 1 results for SEP-631, an oral negative allosteric modulator of MRGPRX2 being developed for chronic spontaneous urticaria and other mast cell-driven diseases. In healthy volunteers, SEP-631 was well tolerated with an adverse event profile comparable to placebo, showed once-daily pharmacokinetics with a roughly 24-hour half-life and no meaningful food effect, and delivered robust, dose-dependent suppression of icatibant-induced skin wheal formation, providing clinical proof-of-mechanism for MRGPRX2 inhibition.

Based on these findings, Septerna plans to move SEP-631 into a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled global Phase 2b trial in adults with moderate-to-severe chronic spontaneous urticaria who remain symptomatic on second-generation antihistamines, and to follow with an open-label study in chronic inducible urticaria with symptomatic dermatographism. The company is also assessing SEP-631’s potential in additional mast cell-driven conditions such as atopic dermatitis, interstitial cystitis, migraine and asthma, positioning the program as a potential differentiated oral option in a range of high-need inflammatory indications.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEPN) stock is a Hold with a $24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Septerna, Inc. stock, see the SEPN Stock Forecast page.

Septerna to Present GPCR Pipeline Updates at JPM Conference

Septerna announced that during the week of January 12, 2026 it will meet investors and industry participants at the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference to showcase progress across its GPCR-focused pipeline and its Native Complex Platform. The company highlighted plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial in the first half of 2026 for SEP-479, a potential first-in-class oral PTH1R agonist for hypoparathyroidism, to present Phase 1 SAD/MAD data for SEP-631, an oral MRGPRX2 negative allosteric modulator for mast cell-driven diseases, at the AAAAI Annual Meeting in March 2026, and to advance its TSHR program for Graves’ disease and thyroid eye disease, while emphasizing its multi-billion-dollar collaboration with Novo Nordisk on oral incretin receptor agonists and a cash runway expected to fund operations at least into 2029, reinforcing its positioning as a well-capitalized emerging player in GPCR drug discovery.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEPN) stock is a Hold with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Septerna, Inc. stock, see the SEPN Stock Forecast page.

Septerna Appoints Mark Wilson as Chief Legal Officer

On January 8, 2026, Septerna, Inc. announced it had appointed pharmaceutical and biotech veteran Mark A. Wilson as Chief Legal Officer, adding deep experience in intellectual property, corporate legal affairs, strategic collaborations and corporate governance to its executive team. Wilson, who previously served as Senior Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Nektar Therapeutics and has more than 25 years of experience, is expected to play a key role in strengthening Septerna’s governance framework, shaping its global IP strategy and supporting the scaling of its operations as the company advances its GPCR-focused drug portfolio and long-term strategic objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEPN) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Septerna, Inc. stock, see the SEPN Stock Forecast page.