Septerna, Inc. (SEPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.06B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 251.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.40
• Revenue Growth: 2147.20%
• EPS Growth: -269.99%
• Country: US
• Employees: 75
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 44,774,193
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 221,862
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 251,706
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 210.70
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.71
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 33.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 33.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -8.52
• 1Y Price Target: $33.86
• Price Target Upside: 42.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.21
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $74.11M

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.00 ▲(0.84% Upside)

The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance (large net loss and persistent negative free cash flow) despite rapid revenue growth and a strong equity-heavy balance sheet. Technicals are mixed with near-term softness, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings. Positive corporate events around pipeline progress and leadership additions provide some support.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

A very high equity ratio and $420M of stockholders' equity give Septerna durable financial cushioning versus typical biotech peers. Low leverage (debt/equity ~0.06) reduces refinancing risk, supports continued R&D spending, and increases flexibility to pursue partnerships or setbacks.

Rapid revenue growth

A >7x revenue increase year-over-year signals emerging commercial or partnership traction for Septerna's GPCR platform. While absolute dollars remain small, sustained top-line growth from a zero base is a durable indicator of productization or collaboration capacity that can underpin longer-term scaling.

Strategic collaboration and pipeline progress

A multi-billion-dollar partnership with Novo Nordisk materially de-risks financing and validates Septerna's platform and discovery approach. Upcoming Phase 1 starts and data presentations create a multi-quarter development cadence and potential non-dilutive funding or milestone revenue if programs advance.

Negative Factors

Large net loss and negative margins

A substantial $71.8M net loss and persistently negative EBIT/EBITDA indicate operations are far from self-sustaining. Structural negative margins reflect ongoing high R&D and SG&A relative to revenue, increasing dependency on external funding and heightening dilution or financing risks over the medium term.

Negative free cash flow and cash burn

Deep negative FCF and operating cash flow show the business consumes significant cash to advance programs. Even with a strong equity base today, prolonged cash burn requires continued financing or partnerships; tighter capital markets or slower milestone progress would pressure operations and strategic optionality.

Historical equity deficits and financial volatility

Past equity deficits reveal a history of capital strain and financial volatility. Combined with biotech development risk and the company's current losses, this legacy increases the probability that future setbacks could force dilutive financing or constrained investment, posing a lasting governance and funding risk.

Septerna, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Septerna, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, discovers and develops G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) oral small molecule products candidates for the treatment of endocrinology, immunology and inflammation, and metabolic diseases. The company develops SEP-786, an oral small molecule PTH1R agonist for hypoparathyroidism; SEP-631, an oral small molecule MRGPRX2 NAM for chronic spontaneous urticaria and other mast cell diseases; TSHR Program, an oral small molecule TSHR NAM for Graves' disease and thyroid eye disease. It also develops oral small molecule single- and multi-incretin receptor agonists for metabolic disorders including obesity and type 2 diabetes. Septerna, Inc. was formerly known as GPCR NewCo, Inc. and changed its name to Septerna Inc. in June 2021. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Septerna, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its drug candidates. The company's revenue model includes milestone payments from partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies, royalties on sales of successfully commercialized products, and potential licensing agreements. Significant partnerships with established industry players provide not only financial support but also strategic collaboration opportunities, enhancing Septerna's research capabilities and market reach. Additionally, government grants and funding for research and development may contribute to the company's earnings, particularly in the early stages of product development.

Septerna, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue grew sharply ($151K in 2023 to $1.075M in 2024), but profitability and cash generation are weak: a large 2024 net loss ($71.8M), negative EBIT/EBITDA margins, and deeply negative free cash flow ($69.57M). The balance sheet is a relative strength with high equity (~92% equity ratio) and low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.06), but ongoing cash burn remains a key risk.

Income Statement

Septerna, Inc. showed a significant revenue increase from $151,000 in 2023 to $1,075,000 in 2024, indicating strong revenue growth. However, net income turned negative in 2024 with a substantial loss of $71.8 million compared to a profit in 2023, demonstrating volatility. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company has a strong equity base with stockholders' equity at $420 million in 2024, and a high equity ratio of approximately 92%. However, the company carries debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06, which is relatively low, indicating low financial leverage. The improvement in equity is a positive sign, but past equity deficits highlight potential financial instability.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow remains negative at $69.57 million in 2024, showing no improvement from 2023. Operating cash flow is also negative, suggesting inefficiency in generating cash from operations. The reliance on financing activities to fund operations could be a risk if external funding becomes limited.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.05M	1.07M	151.00K	0.00
Gross Profit	22.05M	1.07M	151.00K	0.00
EBITDA	-87.90M	-79.42M	-44.70M	-27.39M
Net Income	-58.81M	-71.80M	4.18M	-27.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	606.65M	456.55M	130.87M	36.12M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	474.35M	350.92M	88.48M	30.61M
Total Debt	24.11M	25.48M	12.57M	710.00K
Total Liabilities	217.92M	36.51M	169.24M	80.32M
Stockholders Equity	388.73M	420.05M	-38.37M	-44.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	103.15M	-69.57M	-41.60M	-24.59M
Operating Cash Flow	104.22M	-67.47M	-38.72M	-23.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-177.29M	-160.60M	22.12M	-1.29M
Financing Cash Flow	304.82M	377.78M	74.52M	30.05M

Septerna, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 23.80
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SEPN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 23.8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.08, below the 50-day MA of 26.47, and above the 200-day MA of 16.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.80 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SEPN.

Septerna, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TBPH	67 Neutral	$964.30M	34.10	14.03%	―	27.12%	―
DAWN	65 Neutral	$1.25B	-7.51	-30.16%	―	31.11%	-46.75%
KURA	63 Neutral	$699.62M	-3.32	-65.10%	―	―	-5.18%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
SEPN	54 Neutral	$1.06B	-15.76	-22.38%	―	2147.20%	-269.99%
MRVI	49 Neutral	$874.52M	-4.06	-41.06%	―	-30.56%	48.79%
GOSS	47 Neutral	$590.21M	-3.52	―	―	-58.17%	-116.24%

Septerna, Inc. Corporate Events

Septerna to Present GPCR Pipeline Updates at JPM Conference

Septerna announced that during the week of January 12, 2026 it will meet investors and industry participants at the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference to showcase progress across its GPCR-focused pipeline and its Native Complex Platform. The company highlighted plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial in the first half of 2026 for SEP-479, a potential first-in-class oral PTH1R agonist for hypoparathyroidism, to present Phase 1 SAD/MAD data for SEP-631, an oral MRGPRX2 negative allosteric modulator for mast cell-driven diseases, at the AAAAI Annual Meeting in March 2026, and to advance its TSHR program for Graves’ disease and thyroid eye disease, while emphasizing its multi-billion-dollar collaboration with Novo Nordisk on oral incretin receptor agonists and a cash runway expected to fund operations at least into 2029, reinforcing its positioning as a well-capitalized emerging player in GPCR drug discovery.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEPN) stock is a Hold with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Septerna, Inc. stock, see the SEPN Stock Forecast page.

Septerna Appoints Mark Wilson as Chief Legal Officer

On January 8, 2026, Septerna, Inc. announced it had appointed pharmaceutical and biotech veteran Mark A. Wilson as Chief Legal Officer, adding deep experience in intellectual property, corporate legal affairs, strategic collaborations and corporate governance to its executive team. Wilson, who previously served as Senior Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Nektar Therapeutics and has more than 25 years of experience, is expected to play a key role in strengthening Septerna’s governance framework, shaping its global IP strategy and supporting the scaling of its operations as the company advances its GPCR-focused drug portfolio and long-term strategic objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (SEPN) stock is a Buy with a $43.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Septerna, Inc. stock, see the SEPN Stock Forecast page.