Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.27B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.29M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.15
• Revenue Growth: 31.11%
• EPS Growth: -46.75%
• Country: US
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 105,704,636
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,442,602
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,288,733
• PEG Ratio: -4.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.09
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.73
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.55
• 1Y Price Target: $22.14
• Price Target Upside: 84.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(3.99% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is driven primarily by improving commercial performance and strong gross margins, plus a low-debt balance sheet, but is held back by persistent net losses and significant negative free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend, and the latest earnings call adds confidence via reiterated 2026 growth guidance, though safety, concentration risk, and gross-to-net pressure remain key watchpoints.

Positive Factors

Commercial Traction

Sustained, rapid uptake of Ojemda with large prescription growth builds a durable revenue base and payer familiarity. Strong prescription momentum and patient persistence (~19 months median) support multi-year revenue visibility while the commercial infrastructure scales.

High Product-Level Margins

Exceptional gross margin indicates low incremental cost of goods sold, meaning each additional prescription converts to substantial gross profit. This supports scalable unit economics and margin resilience even if gross-to-net pressure rises modestly over the next several quarters.

Strong Balance Sheet & Strategic M&A

A large cash position and minimal leverage give the company runway to fund commercialization, clinical programs and integrate Mersana without immediate financing. The acquisition diversifies the pipeline, reducing single-product concentration risk over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Cash Burn & Negative Free Cash Flow

Persistent, sizable negative operating and free cash flow means the business consumes significant cash to sustain operations and growth. Even with revenue growth, ongoing losses create funding dependence and raise dilution or financing risk if cash burn does not materially improve.

Single-Product Concentration

Heavy reliance on a single marketed product concentrates commercial, regulatory and payer risk. With key pipeline readouts and approvals multiple quarters to years away, revenue and long-term growth remain exposed to safety, competitive, or access setbacks tied to that one asset.

Pediatric Safety & Tolerability Risks

Notable higher‑grade adverse events in pediatric patients require ongoing management and can limit label expansion, uptake, or reimbursement. These safety signals create durable clinical and commercial constraints that can slow adoption and complicate regulatory or payer discussions.

Day One Biopharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes targeted therapies for patients with genetically defined cancers. Its lead product candidate is DAY101, an oral brain-penetrant type II pan-rapidly accelerated fibrosarcoma kinase inhibitor that is in Phase II clinical trial for pediatric patients with relapsed/progressive low-grade glioma. The company is also developing Pimasertib, an oral small molecule inhibitor of mitogen-activated protein kinase kinases 1 and 2. Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Day One Biopharmaceuticals makes money primarily through the development and eventual commercialization of its oncology therapies. The company invests in research and development to create novel cancer treatments, which, upon successful clinical trials and regulatory approval, can be marketed and sold. Revenue streams include potential product sales, licensing agreements, and partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies for the co-development or commercialization of their therapies. Additionally, Day One may secure funding through grants, collaborations, and strategic alliances that provide financial support during the clinical development stages.

Day One Biopharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (2025: $158.2M, +18.3%) and very high gross margin (~91%) are positives, supported by very low debt. However, the business remains meaningfully unprofitable (2025 net margin about -68%) and cash burn is substantial with negative operating cash flow (-$103.8M) and negative free cash flow (-$104.1M), implying continued funding dependence if burn doesn’t improve.

Income Statement

Revenue scaled meaningfully in 2024 ($131.2M) and grew again in 2025 ($158.2M; +18.3%), with very strong gross profitability (gross profit margin ~91% in 2025). However, the company remains structurally loss-making: 2025 net margin was deeply negative (about -68%), and operating losses remain sizable despite improvement versus 2024 (EBIT improved from -$217.3M to -$127.8M). Overall, strong product-level economics but profitability is still a key gap.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively levered with very low debt (2025 total debt ~$2.8M) against a large equity base (~$441.2M), keeping debt pressure minimal. That said, ongoing losses translate into negative returns on equity (about -24% in 2025), and equity has declined from 2024, reflecting continued cash burn and income statement losses. Financial risk from leverage is low, but value erosion risk persists if losses continue.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a weak spot: 2025 operating cash flow was -$103.8M and free cash flow was -$104.1M, worsening versus 2024 (free cash flow down ~14.2% year over year). While free cash flow roughly tracks reported losses (free cash flow to net income ~1.0), the business is still consuming substantial cash to operate, which raises future funding needs if the burn rate doesn’t improve.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	133.67M	158.18M	131.16M	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	119.56M	143.47M	125.88M	-383.00K	-531.00K	-199.00K
EBITDA	-141.73M	-105.82M	-86.32M	-188.53M	-141.65M	-72.56M
Net Income	-151.76M	-107.32M	-95.50M	-188.92M	-142.18M	-70.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	513.78M	507.83M	582.79M	376.05M	349.06M	289.82M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	451.58M	441.11M	531.72M	366.35M	342.27M	284.31M
Total Debt	2.89M	2.79M	2.60M	408.00K	813.00K	220.00K
Total Liabilities	62.91M	66.67M	80.04M	29.51M	17.02M	8.67M
Stockholders Equity	450.87M	441.16M	502.75M	346.54M	332.04M	281.15M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-121.36M	-104.08M	-80.28M	-150.08M	-109.90M	-56.54M
Operating Cash Flow	-119.62M	-103.76M	-78.11M	-146.85M	-109.87M	-48.54M
Investing Cash Flow	-262.47M	174.65M	-230.99M	128.38M	-255.07M	-8.00M
Financing Cash Flow	2.60M	1.22M	203.29M	164.00M	165.90M	297.12M

Day One Biopharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 12.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DAWN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.47, above the 50-day MA of 10.49, and above the 200-day MA of 8.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DAWN.

Day One Biopharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TBPH	67 Neutral	$965.82M	33.88	14.03%	―	27.12%	―
KURA	63 Neutral	$729.21M	-3.45	-65.10%	―	―	-5.18%
DAWN	62 Neutral	$1.27B	-10.49	-30.16%	―	31.11%	-46.75%
SEPN	54 Neutral	$1.38B	-19.86	-22.38%	―	2147.20%	-269.99%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
MRVI	49 Neutral	$797.81M	-3.86	-41.06%	―	-30.56%	48.79%
GOSS	47 Neutral	$96.15M	-0.55	―	―	-58.17%	-116.24%

Day One Biopharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Day One Highlights Transformational 2025 and OJEMDA Growth

Day One Biopharmaceuticals reported on Feb. 24, 2026 that 2025 was a transformational year, driven by strong commercial uptake of its pediatric cancer drug OJEMDA and a broadened oncology pipeline following the January 2026 acquisition of Mersana Therapeutics. OJEMDA generated net product revenue of $52.8 million in the fourth quarter and $155.4 million for full year 2025, representing 172% year-over-year growth and sharp gains in prescription volumes, while the company reaffirmed its 2026 U.S. revenue guidance of $225 million to $250 million.

Clinically, updated three-year FIREFLY-1 data presented in November 2025 underscored the durability and safety of OJEMDA in relapsed or refractory pLGG, and enrollment in the pivotal frontline FIREFLY-2 Phase 3 trial is expected to complete in the first half of 2026. Financially, Day One narrowed its 2025 net loss to $107.3 million on reduced R&D spending and ended the year with $441.1 million in cash and investments, positioning it to advance Phase 1 programs for Emi-Le and DAY301 while maintaining an active presence at upcoming healthcare investor conferences.

The company’s strengthened balance sheet, accelerating OJEMDA franchise, and expanded ADC portfolio underscore its bid to cement a leading position in targeted therapies for rare and pediatric cancers. Stakeholders will closely watch 2026 clinical readouts for Emi-Le and DAY301, alongside completion of FIREFLY-2 enrollment, as key catalysts for Day One’s medium-term growth trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (DAWN) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Day One Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the DAWN Stock Forecast page.

Day One Biopharmaceuticals Announces Strong OJEMDA Revenue Outlook

On January 11, 2026, Day One Biopharmaceuticals reported preliminary unaudited 2025 OJEMDA net product revenue of $155.4 million, up 172% year over year, with fourth-quarter sales of about $52.8 million driven by rising patient demand and 1,394 prescriptions in the quarter. The company issued 2026 U.S. net product revenue guidance for OJEMDA of $225 million to $250 million, implying roughly 53% growth at the midpoint, and highlighted a cash, cash equivalents and short-term investment position of about $441.1 million as of December 31, 2025, prior to the Mersana acquisition, underscoring its capacity to fund ongoing commercialization and clinical programs. Management outlined 2026 priorities including expanding OJEMDA’s commercial footprint and solidifying its role as standard of care in second-line pediatric low-grade glioma, completing enrollment in the pivotal Phase 3 FIREFLY-2 trial in first-line pLGG in the first half of 2026, and delivering Phase 1 data for Emi-Le by mid-2026 and initial Phase 1a data for DAY301 in the second half of 2026, positioning the company for further growth and potentially broader oncology indications.

The most recent analyst rating on (DAWN) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Day One Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the DAWN Stock Forecast page.

Day One Biopharmaceuticals Completes Acquisition of Mersana Therapeutics

On January 6, 2026, Day One Biopharmaceuticals completed its acquisition of Mersana Therapeutics in an all-cash tender offer and follow-on merger, paying $25 per share plus a non-tradable contingent value right (CVR) per share that could deliver additional milestone payments of up to $30.25, for potential total consideration of $55.25 per share. The deal, funded with approximately $128.8 million of Day One’s cash on hand, results in Mersana becoming a wholly owned subsidiary and its stock being delisted from Nasdaq, while former Mersana shareholders receive the same mix of cash and CVRs whether they tendered in the offer or were converted in the merger. Each CVR entitles holders to a series of potential cash milestone payments tied to U.S. regulatory designations, clinical trial progress, FDA approval, commercial launches in major global markets, and specified annual net sales thresholds for Emi-Le, with deadlines running from 2026 through 2037, though these milestones are not guaranteed and the CVRs are generally non-transferable. Strategically, the transaction expands Day One’s oncology portfolio with a second clinical-stage antibody-drug conjugate and deepens its push into adult and rare cancers, notably ACC, as the company looks to build on momentum from OJEMDA and position itself as a more diversified player in targeted oncology while assuming the integration and development risks associated with the acquisition and milestone structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (DAWN) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Day One Biopharmaceuticals stock, see the DAWN Stock Forecast page.