Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN)
NASDAQ:DAWN
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Day One Biopharmaceuticals
(NASDAQ:DAWN)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$22.50
▲(4.80% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/07/26
The score is held back primarily by ongoing losses and substantial negative free cash flow despite strong revenue growth and gross margins. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call reinforced strong commercial momentum and confident 2026 revenue guidance supported by a strong cash position, while technicals show an uptrend but with overbought conditions that add near-term risk.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth & High Gross Margins
Sustained top-line expansion combined with ~91% gross margins indicates strong product-level economics for OJEMDA. Durable high margins provide structural capacity to fund commercial expansion and R&D, improving long-term unit economics even while operating losses persist.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow
Substantial negative operating and free cash flow represent ongoing cash burn that erodes reserves and creates potential future financing needs. Even with strong margins, persistent negative FCF raises risk of dilution or constrained investment if revenue growth or cost structure does not improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth & High Gross Margins
Sustained top-line expansion combined with ~91% gross margins indicates strong product-level economics for OJEMDA. Durable high margins provide structural capacity to fund commercial expansion and R&D, improving long-term unit economics even while operating losses persist.
Read all positive factors
Day One Biopharmaceuticals (DAWN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.22B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth31.11%
EPS Growth-46.75%
CountryUS
Employees181
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.21
Shares Outstanding103,297,690
10 Day Avg. Volume1,451,478
30 Day Avg. Volume6,132,432
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.58
Price to Book (P/B)2.18
Price to Sales (P/S)6.09
P/FCF Ratio-9.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-19.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.86Price Target Upside-2.84% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.78
Revenue Forecast (FY)$240.45M
Day One Biopharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes targeted therapies for patients with genetically defined cancers. Its lead product candidate is DAY101, an oral brain-penetrant type II pan-r...
How the Company Makes Money
Day One Biopharmaceuticals makes money primarily through the development and eventual commercialization of its oncology therapies. The company invests in research and development to create novel cancer treatments, which, upon successful clinical t...
Day One Biopharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong commercial momentum for Ojemda with exceptional revenue growth (FY2025 revenue up 172% YoY; Q4 sequential growth of 37%), robust prescription trends (>4,600 scripts, +180% YoY) and a solid balance sheet (~$441M cash, no debt). Clinical readouts (FIREFLY-1 three-year data) provide compelling efficacy and long TTNT supporting clinical value, and the Mersana acquisition adds a promising near-term pipeline asset (EMILY) with mid-2026 data expected. Offsetting risks include pediatric safety considerations (decreased growth velocity, anemia, occasional severe rash), concentration on a single marketed product, expected gross-to-net pressure in 2026 (guidance rising to 16%–19%), and timing/regulatory uncertainties for pipeline readouts (FIREFLY-2 top-line mid-2027, EMILY data mid-2026). Overall the positives — strong commercial execution, clear growth guidance, healthy payer coverage, and a strong cash position — outweigh the challenges, though pipeline timing and safety management remain important watchpoints.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Revenue Growth Driven by Ojemda
Net product revenue of $155.4 million for FY2025, representing a 172% year-over-year increase and double-digit sequential quarterly growth throughout 2025; revenue exceeded combined cost of sales and SG&A within ~20 months of approval.
Negative Updates
Safety and Tolerability Considerations in Pediatric Patients
Three-year safety profile remains consistent with label but includes higher-grade events such as decreased growth velocity, anemia, occasional more severe rash, and asymptomatic lab abnormalities (elevated CPK or ALT), which require ongoing management in a pediatric population.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Revenue Growth Driven by Ojemda
Net product revenue of $155.4 million for FY2025, representing a 172% year-over-year increase and double-digit sequential quarterly growth throughout 2025; revenue exceeded combined cost of sales and SG&A within ~20 months of approval.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Day One reiterated 2026 U.S. Ojemda net product revenue guidance of $225 million to $250 million (midpoint implying >50% YoY growth versus 2025 net product revenue of $155.4 million, which was up 172% year‑over‑year), while noting Q4'25 U.S. Ojemda revenue was $52.8 million (37% sequential growth) and full‑year 2025 delivered >4,600 prescriptions (>180% vs. 2024) with Q4 prescriptions >1,300 (11% QoQ); they said where 2026 lands will depend primarily on persistence (median commercial duration trending ~19 months) and new patient starts. Financial assumptions include gross‑to‑net of 12–15% in 2025 and guidance of 16–19% for 2026, channel inventory at about the midpoint of a targeted 2–4 weeks of days on hand, ending 2025 net cash of ~ $441 million with no debt, and total operating expenses of $81 million in Q4 and $286 million for FY'25; other clinical and commercial metrics cited supporting the revenue outlook included a 53% ORR, median response duration 19.4 months, median time to response 5.4 months, median PFS 16.6 months and median TTNT 42.6 months, and favorable payer metrics (95% coverage, >90% first‑request approval, >95% of pLGG patients receiving paid drug).Day One Biopharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 158.18M | 131.16M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 140.97M | 125.88M | -383.00K | -531.00K | -199.00K |
| EBITDA | -105.82M | -86.32M | -188.53M | -141.65M | -72.56M |
| Net Income | -107.32M | -95.50M | -188.92M | -142.18M | -70.64M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 507.83M | 582.79M | 376.05M | 349.06M | 289.82M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 441.11M | 531.72M | 366.35M | 342.27M | 284.31M |
| Total Debt | 2.79M | 2.60M | 408.00K | 813.00K | 220.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 66.67M | 80.04M | 29.51M | 17.02M | 8.67M |
| Stockholders Equity | 441.16M | 502.75M | 346.54M | 332.04M | 281.15M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -104.08M | -80.28M | -150.08M | -109.90M | -56.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -103.76M | -78.11M | -146.85M | -109.87M | -48.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 174.65M | -230.99M | 128.38M | -255.07M | -8.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.22M | 203.29M | 164.00M | 165.90M | 297.12M |
Day One Biopharmaceuticals Technical Analysis
Positive
21.47
Price Trends
16.36
Positive
12.93
Positive
10.05
Positive
Market Momentum
1.35
Positive
80.90
Negative
86.30
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DAWN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.40, above the 50-day MA of 16.36, and above the 200-day MA of 10.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 80.90 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.30 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DAWN.
Day One Biopharmaceuticals Risk Analysis
Day One Biopharmaceuticals disclosed 93 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Day One Biopharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Day One Biopharmaceuticals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $841.91M | 8.89 | 46.03% | ― | 27.12% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $2.22B | -8.98 | -23.43% | ― | 31.11% | -46.75% | |
53 Neutral | $799.48M | -3.61 | -51.07% | ― | -30.56% | 48.79% | |
52 Neutral | $765.82M | -3.27 | -102.59% | ― | ― | -5.18% | |
52 Neutral | $1.12B | -25.24 | -12.63% | ― | 2147.20% | -269.99% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
41 Neutral | $96.11M | -3.72 | 264.70% | ― | -58.17% | -116.24% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
DAWN
Day One Biopharmaceuticals
21.47
14.25
197.37%
TBPH
Theravance Biopharma
16.35
7.62
87.29%
KURA
Kura Oncology
8.67
2.82
48.21%
GOSS
Gossamer Bio
0.41
-0.40
-49.63%
MRVI
Maravai Lifesciences Holdings
3.07
1.30
73.45%
SEPN
Septerna, Inc.
23.09
17.02
280.40%
Day One Biopharmaceuticals Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Servier to Acquire Day One Biopharmaceuticals in Merger
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Servier Pharmaceuticals LLC and Day One Biopharmaceuticals entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Servier will acquire all outstanding Day One shares for $21.50 in cash per share, valuing the company at approximat...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Day One Highlights OJEMDA’s EMA Progress, Updates Strategy
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Day One Biopharmaceuticals updated its corporate presentation after Ipsen Pharma SAS received a positive opinion from the European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use recommending conditional m...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Day One Highlights Transformational 2025 and OJEMDA Growth
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Day One Biopharmaceuticals reported on Feb. 24, 2026 that 2025 was a transformational year, driven by strong commercial uptake of its pediatric cancer drug OJEMDA and a broadened oncology pipeline following the January 2026 acquisition of Mersana ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Day One Biopharmaceuticals Announces Strong OJEMDA Revenue Outlook
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 11, 2026, Day One Biopharmaceuticals reported preliminary unaudited 2025 OJEMDA net product revenue of $155.4 million, up 172% year over year, with fourth-quarter sales of about $52.8 million driven by rising patient demand and 1,394 pr...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Day One Biopharmaceuticals Completes Acquisition of Mersana Therapeutics
Positive
Jan 6, 2026
On January 6, 2026, Day One Biopharmaceuticals completed its acquisition of Mersana Therapeutics in an all-cash tender offer and follow-on merger, paying $25 per share plus a non-tradable contingent value right (CVR) per share that could deliver a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.