Viaplay (VPLAY.B) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr5.56B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.94M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.13
• Revenue Growth: -5.47%
• EPS Growth: 98.92%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 1,040
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Entertainment
• EPS (TTM): -0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 4,577,821,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,392,089
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,944,645
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.23
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.76
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr1.00
• Price Target Upside: 11.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.1
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr18.73B

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: kr1.50 ▲(66.67% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/25/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—large 2025 losses, higher leverage, and persistently negative operating/free cash flow—creating elevated liquidity and refinancing risk. Technicals are a meaningful offset with clear upward momentum above key moving averages, but valuation remains unattractive/unclear due to negative earnings and no stated dividend support.

Positive Factors

Diversified revenue model

Viaplay monetizes content through subscriptions, advertising, distribution/affiliate fees, rights sales and production services. This multi‑stream model creates recurring revenue and multiple monetization levers, improving resilience to one channel's weakness and supporting long‑term cash generation if execution sustains.

Revenues recovering vs prior years

Reported revenue expansion versus 2021–2022 indicates regained top‑line traction after earlier volatility. A larger revenue base supports scale benefits for content amortization and ad monetization, making sustained investment in premium sports and originals more viable over the coming months if growth continues.

Reduced cash burn trend

Management achieved lower cash consumption versus 2024, reducing immediate liquidity pressure. A declining burn rate lengthens the runway for rights negotiations and restructuring, improving the probability of reaching break‑even operating cash flow without near‑term dilutive financing.

Negative Factors

Large 2025 net loss and negative EBIT

The large 2025 net loss and negative EBIT weaken internal capital and reduce capacity to self‑fund content investments. Ongoing operating losses make sustaining premium sports rights and production spending difficult without external funding, pressuring long‑term profitability and strategic flexibility.

Sharply higher leverage

Debt more than doubled while equity shrank, materially raising leverage. Elevated indebtedness increases refinancing and covenant risk, limits bidding power for expensive sports rights, and reduces financial flexibility to invest in content or marketing during a multi‑quarter recovery.

Persistent negative operating cash flow

Multi‑year negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow consume liquidity and force reliance on external financing or asset sales. This structural cash‑generation gap undermines self‑funding of rights and production, increasing refinancing risk and limiting sustainable margin improvement.

Viaplay Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Viaplay Group AB (publ) operates as an entertainment provider and streaming company in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company operates Viaplay, an online video streaming service, which offers live sports, original series, documentaries and films, and international TV releases, as well as all-time classic series, and children's animation and series; Viafree that offers a range of free-to-view content to viewers; V sport, series & film, a family of premium-TV channels that offers television entertainment; and Viaplay studios that consists of production companies, which produce original and animated content. It also operates TV3, commercial TV channel; TV6, a young male skewed channel; TV8, a channel that provides procedural drama; TV10, a channel for sporting events and documentaries; Viasat4 and TV3+ for young male audiences; TV3 PULS that offers procedural series, cooking, and lifestyle shows; TV3 Sport for sports lovers; and TV3 MAX, which shows comedy and drama series. In addition, it operates radio stations, comprising of Rix FM, Bandit Rock, Power Hit Radio, Star FM, P4 Lyden av Norge, P5 Hits, P6 Rock, P7 Klem, P8 Pop, P9 Retro, and P10 Country; NRJ, an online TV channel; Bandit, an online station; and I LIKE RADIO, an online music service, well as news, talk shows, and contests. Further, the company offers advertising services on TV channels, radio stations, and streaming services. The company was formerly known as Nordic Entertainment Group AB (publ) and changed its name to Viaplay Group AB (publ) in May 2022. Viaplay Group AB (publ) was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Viaplay generates revenue primarily through its subscription model, where customers pay a monthly fee for access to its content library. This subscription revenue is the largest portion of its income. Additionally, the company earns money through advertising on certain free or ad-supported tiers of its service. Viaplay also monetizes its content through partnerships with telecom companies and other platforms that bundle Viaplay subscriptions with their services. Furthermore, Viaplay invests in original content production, which can drive subscriber growth and retention, thereby enhancing its overall revenue potential.

Viaplay Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial strength is weak: 2025 swung to a large net loss (-1,267m) with still-negative EBIT (-33m), leverage increased sharply as debt rose to 6,977m while equity fell to 2,291m, and cash flow remains deeply negative (operating cash flow -2,293m; free cash flow -2,342m). Revenue and a reduced cash burn versus 2024 are positives, but overall risk remains elevated.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded versus 2021–2022 levels, but the profitability profile has deteriorated sharply. The company swung from modest profits in 2024 (net income 106m) to a large loss in 2025 (net income -1,267m), while operating profit remained near break-even but still negative in 2025 (EBIT -33m). Gross profit improved in absolute terms in 2025, yet margins and earnings power remain pressured and volatile compared with earlier years (e.g., strong profitability in 2020–2021 and a severe collapse in 2023).

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows meaningful leverage and reduced cushion for shareholders. Total debt rose materially in 2025 (6,977m) versus 2024 (2,434m), while equity declined to 2,291m from 3,677m, weakening financial flexibility. Although equity is positive again after being negative in 2023, the combination of higher debt and shrinking equity increases risk if operating results remain soft.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the weakest area: operating cash flow has been deeply negative for multiple years (2022–2025), including -2,293m in 2025, and free cash flow is also significantly negative (-2,342m in 2025). While free cash flow improved versus 2024 (less negative), the business is still consuming substantial cash, which typically raises refinancing and liquidity pressure—especially alongside the higher debt level in 2025.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	17.68B	18.49B	18.57B	15.69B	12.66B
Gross Profit	2.42B	2.03B	1.30B	2.60B	3.20B
EBITDA	206.00M	638.00M	-9.90B	455.00M	819.00M
Net Income	-1.27B	106.00M	-9.75B	323.00M	325.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.00B	16.85B	19.72B	21.86B	19.53B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.13B	1.04B	2.54B	2.77B	5.70B
Total Debt	6.98B	2.43B	7.65B	4.41B	3.82B
Total Liabilities	16.71B	13.18B	20.81B	12.95B	11.21B
Stockholders Equity	2.29B	3.68B	-1.09B	8.91B	8.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.34B	-2.04B	-3.51B	-3.19B	261.00M
Operating Cash Flow	-2.29B	-2.00B	-3.35B	-3.00B	477.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.78B	105.00M	-137.00M	-502.00M	243.00M
Financing Cash Flow	4.21B	352.00M	3.29B	535.00M	2.91B

Viaplay Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:VPLAY.B, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.23, below the 50-day MA of 1.10, and below the 200-day MA of 1.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:VPLAY.B.

Viaplay Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
ACAST	52 Neutral	kr4.67B	-55.48	-3.84%	―	26.82%	76.68%
VPLAY.B	48 Neutral	kr5.56B	-3.26	-14.56%	―	-5.47%	98.92%
FRAG	48 Neutral	kr48.62M	5.93	-229.41%	―	-10.21%	-1.15%
GBK	46 Neutral	kr28.39M	-1.80	―	―	33.98%	-104.57%
GCOR	41 Neutral	kr139.33M	-3.85	―	―	32.83%	13.34%

Viaplay Corporate Events

Viaplay Deepens Allente Integration as Q4 Loss Widens but Guidance Holds

Viaplay Group reported fourth-quarter 2025 net sales of SEK 4,978m, a modest rise year-on-year, while operating income swung to a larger loss due to write-downs and negative associated company income. The consolidation of 100% of Allente from mid-November contributed SEK 578m in sales and SEK 31m in operating income, and management expects substantial cost synergies from the integration, despite continued pressure from legacy content agreements and structural decline in linear TV.

On a pro forma basis including Allente for the full year, core operations delivered SEK 21,494m in net sales and SEK 1,144m in EBITDA, in line with or above guidance, and the group forecasts stable organic revenue and EBITDA of SEK 1.0bn–1.4bn in 2026. The company is leaning on growth in streaming subscriptions and digital advertising to offset shrinking linear and DTH revenues, while new financing and a focus on cash generation are aimed at improving leverage and supporting a targeted double-digit EBITDA margin by 2028.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:VPLAY.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viaplay stock, see the SE:VPLAY.B Stock Forecast page.

Viaplay Group Sets Date for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results Presentation

Viaplay Group has scheduled the publication of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results for Thursday 19 February at 07:30 local time, followed by a conference call and Q&A session at 09:00 with President and CEO Jørgen Madsen Lindemann and EVP and Group CFO Johan Johansson. The announcement signals the company’s intent to provide detailed transparency on its financial performance to investors and analysts, with online and phone access for participants, underlining Viaplay’s ongoing engagement with the capital markets during a period of continued competition and consolidation in the Nordic and European media and streaming sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:VPLAY.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viaplay stock, see the SE:VPLAY.B Stock Forecast page.