Viaplay (SE:VPLAY.B)
:VPLAY.B
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Viaplay
(VPLAY.B)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
kr1.50
▲(66.67% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/31/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, higher leverage, and persistently negative cash flow). The latest earnings call provides some offset via EBITDA guidance and signs of operational momentum, while technicals are moderately supportive. Valuation contributes limited support due to a negative P/E and no dividend data.
Positive Factors
Streaming and ARPU momentum
Quarterly subscriber and ARPU gains indicate improving unit economics and recurring revenue quality. Durable D2C growth and higher ARPU support cash conversion and margin expansion over multiple quarters if sustained, helping offset declines in legacy DTH revenue.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow
Multi-year negative OCF and FCF materially weaken internal funding for content and capex, forcing reliance on financing and asset disposals. This structural cash burn elevates refinancing risk and constrains reinvestment needed to sustain content quality and growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Streaming and ARPU momentum
Quarterly subscriber and ARPU gains indicate improving unit economics and recurring revenue quality. Durable D2C growth and higher ARPU support cash conversion and margin expansion over multiple quarters if sustained, helping offset declines in legacy DTH revenue.
Read all positive factors
Viaplay (VPLAY.B) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr5.79B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.26
Revenue Growth-5.47%
EPS Growth98.92%
CountrySE
Employees1,040
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryEntertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.21
Shares Outstanding4,577,821,300
10 Day Avg. Volume7,392,089
30 Day Avg. Volume7,944,645
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.80
Price to Sales (P/S)0.23
P/FCF Ratio-1.76
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
kr1.45Price Target Upside61.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr18.73B
Viaplay Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Viaplay Group AB (publ) operates as an entertainment provider and streaming company in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company operates Viaplay, an online video streaming service, whi...
How the Company Makes Money
Viaplay Group makes money primarily by monetizing video content—especially premium sports and entertainment—across consumer subscriptions and advertising-supported distribution, and by selling/wholesaling its channels and rights to third parties.
...
Viaplay Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but controlled picture: management met pro forma 2025 targets (including >SEK 1bn EBITDA pro forma and SEK 804m adjusted operating free cash flow), completed the Allente acquisition with clear synergy targets (SEK 300–400m run-rate by 2027) and demonstrated momentum in streaming, ARPU and digital advertising growth (+38%). Offsetting these positives are material near-term financial and operational headwinds — a large rise in net debt (~SEK 5.2–5.5bn), a one‑off SEK 2.5bn negative working capital swing in Q4, significant non-cash write-downs (SEK 642m), a 37% drop in sublicensing sales driving a 2% organic revenue decline in Q4, FX headwinds, and ongoing piracy and legacy content cost risks. Management framed many negatives as one-time or transitional (integration, working capital timing, refinancing) while outlining multi-year levers (pricing, ARPU, content/distribution renegotiations, Allente synergies) to reach double-digit margins by 2028. Overall the transcript balances meaningful operational progress and clear strategic roadmap against significant near-term financial and execution challenges.Positive Updates
Completed Allente Acquisition and Integration Plan
Completed purchase of remaining 50% of Allente in mid-November (initial price SEK 1.1bn; net cash paid SEK 600m in Q4). Integration underway with expected full run-rate cash synergies of SEK 300–400m from 2027 and quantified integration cash cost of SEK 270–330m to be reported as IAC in 2026.
Negative Updates
Material Increase in Net Debt and Refinancing
Net debt rose materially from ~SEK 1.1bn in 2024 to approximately SEK 5.2–5.5bn at year-end 2025 (financial net debt excl. leases stated as SEK 5.246bn), driven by the Allente transaction, refinancing, new term loan (SEK 1.726bn), a new working capital facility (SEK 2.5bn) and a drawn RCF of SEK 500m.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Completed Allente Acquisition and Integration Plan
Completed purchase of remaining 50% of Allente in mid-November (initial price SEK 1.1bn; net cash paid SEK 600m in Q4). Integration underway with expected full run-rate cash synergies of SEK 300–400m from 2027 and quantified integration cash cost of SEK 270–330m to be reported as IAC in 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 EBITDA of SEK 1.0–1.4 billion, reiterated the ambition of a double‑digit core EBITDA margin in 2028 (versus 5.3% pro‑forma in 2025) and said group sales should be broadly stable in 2026 excluding currency effects, with accelerated streaming growth offsetting continued Allente DTH declines. They delivered pro‑forma 2025 of ~SEK 22 billion in sales and >SEK 1 billion of EBITDA and reported pro‑forma adjusted operating free cash flow of SEK 804 million (versus guidance SEK 500–750m); capex is expected at about SEK 150 million (pro‑forma 2025 level) and annual cash interest runs at ~SEK 450 million. On Allente, they paid SEK 600 million in Q4 to complete the acquisition, expect SEK 300–400 million of full run‑rate cash synergies from 2027, and plan integration costs of SEK 270–330 million (mostly in H1 2026); the non‑core cash drag for 2026 is expected at ~SEK 500 million (was SEK 365 million in 2025). Balance‑sheet metrics include a new SEK 1.726 billion term loan (SEK 100m amortized in Q4), a SEK 2.5 billion working‑capital facility, a reduced RCF of SEK 2.817 billion with SEK 500 million drawn, total long‑term indebtedness excluding the RCF of ~SEK 6.0 billion, and financial net debt excluding leases of about SEK 5.25 billion (debt SEK 6.422bn less cash SEK 1.132bn). They also warned of FX headwinds on core EBIT of SEK 100–150 million (c. SEK 125m in 2025), an extraordinary Q4 working‑capital hit of SEK 2.5 billion (which, excluded, would have left Q4 working capital positive), and signalled a goal of less volatile working‑capital seasonality alongside continued focus on sales growth, cost reductions and working‑capital efficiency.Viaplay Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Cash Flow
14
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 17.68B | 18.49B | 18.57B | 15.69B | 12.66B |
| Gross Profit | 2.42B | 2.03B | 1.30B | 2.60B | 3.20B |
| EBITDA | 206.00M | 638.00M | -9.90B | 455.00M | 819.00M |
| Net Income | -1.27B | 106.00M | -9.75B | 323.00M | 325.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 19.00B | 16.85B | 19.72B | 21.86B | 19.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.13B | 1.04B | 2.54B | 2.77B | 5.70B |
| Total Debt | 6.76B | 2.43B | 7.65B | 4.41B | 3.82B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.71B | 13.18B | 20.81B | 12.95B | 11.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.29B | 3.68B | -1.09B | 8.91B | 8.32B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.34B | -2.04B | -3.51B | -3.19B | 261.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -2.29B | -2.00B | -3.35B | -3.00B | 477.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.78B | 105.00M | -137.00M | -502.00M | 243.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.21B | 352.00M | 3.29B | 535.00M | 2.91B |
Viaplay Technical Analysis
Neutral
0.90
Price Trends
1.26
Positive
1.10
Positive
1.09
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
46.48
Neutral
26.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:VPLAY.B, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.36, below the 50-day MA of 1.26, and below the 200-day MA of 1.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SE:VPLAY.B.
Viaplay Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
52 Neutral | kr4.86B | -55.48 | -3.84% | ― | 26.82% | 76.68% | |
49 Neutral | kr5.79B | -3.26 | -40.71% | ― | -5.47% | 98.92% | |
48 Neutral | kr62.52M | 5.93 | 27.44% | ― | -10.21% | -1.15% | |
42 Neutral | kr25.72M | -1.80 | 153.96% | ― | 33.98% | -104.57% | |
41 Neutral | kr119.55M | -3.85 | ― | ― | 32.83% | 13.34% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
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Viaplay Corporate Events
Viaplay Deepens Allente Integration as Q4 Loss Widens but Guidance Holds
Feb 19, 2026
Viaplay Group reported fourth-quarter 2025 net sales of SEK 4,978m, a modest rise year-on-year, while operating income swung to a larger loss due to write-downs and negative associated company income. The consolidation of 100% of Allente from mid-...
Viaplay Group Sets Date for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results Presentation
Feb 5, 2026
Viaplay Group has scheduled the publication of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results for Thursday 19 February at 07:30 local time, followed by a conference call and QA session at 09:00 with President and CEO Jørgen Madsen Li...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.