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Viaplay (SE:VPLAY.B)
:VPLAY.B

Viaplay (VPLAY.B) AI Stock Analysis

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Viaplay

(OTC:VPLAY.B)

Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
kr0.50
▼(-33.33%Downside)
The overall stock score is significantly impacted by financial performance challenges, including declining profitability and cash flow issues. Technical analysis suggests some positive momentum, but overbought conditions pose risks. Valuation concerns due to a negative P/E ratio and lack of dividends further depress the score.

Viaplay (VPLAY.B) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Viaplay Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionViaplay Group AB (VPLAY.B) is a leading provider of streaming services, headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden. The company operates in the media and entertainment sector, offering a broad array of on-demand video content, including movies, series, sports, and original productions. Viaplay's core service is its subscription-based streaming platform, which serves audiences primarily in the Nordic countries and select international markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyViaplay makes money through a subscription-based revenue model, where users pay a monthly fee to access its streaming platform. The company offers various subscription tiers, including options for premium content such as exclusive sports events and original series, which can command higher fees. Additionally, Viaplay generates revenue through advertising, particularly within its ad-supported content offerings. Strategic partnerships with content creators and distributors further enhance its library, attracting more subscribers. Viaplay also licenses its original content to other broadcasters and platforms, providing an additional revenue stream.

Viaplay Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: -6.72%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with several positive developments such as organic sales growth in core operations and a reduction in core operating losses. However, challenges remain, including declines in Viaplay sales, advertising revenue, and currency-related financial pressure. The company's strategic initiatives in content cost management and new product introductions are promising, but financial and market challenges persist.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Core Operations Organic Sales Growth
Core operations generated 6% organic sales growth, driven by growth in linear subscription revenues and sublicensing of content.
Introduction of HVOD Tier
The introduction of HVOD tier in Denmark, Sweden, and Norway has attracted new customer segments and encouraged reactivation by former subscribers.
Significant Growth in Sublicensing
Sublicensing and other sales accounted for 9% of core revenues in Q3 and grew by 165% year-on-year on an organic basis.
Content Cost Management
Content costs were largely stable year-on-year in Q3 and are expected to be down in Q4 with lower costs related to content sublicensing.
Reduction in Core Operating Losses
Core operating losses were reduced by SEK 63 million or 56% year-on-year.
Negative Updates
Decline in Viaplay Sales
Viaplay sales were down 1% year-on-year on an organic basis, with the D2C subscriber base down in almost all markets.
Advertising Revenue Decline
Advertising revenue, accounting for 18% of core revenues, was down 1% on an organic basis.
Currency Challenges
Ongoing and substantial currency challenges due to the weak SEK had a negative impact on EBIT and sales.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Total free cash flow was negative SEK 1.523 billion, with core EBIT loss of SEK 49 million.
Account Sharing and Piracy Issues
Tackling account sharing and piracy remain critical focus areas due to significant value leakage.
Company Guidance
In the Q3 2024 earnings call for VPLAY B.ST, the executives reaffirmed their commitment to achieving profitable growth and maintaining their forward-looking guidance. The company reported a 6% organic sales growth driven by linear subscription revenue and content sublicensing, although Viaplay's subscription revenue saw a slight decline of 1% year-on-year. Price adjustments positively impacted the D2C ARPU across core markets, despite a decrease in the subscriber base. The introduction of the HVOD tier in Denmark, Sweden, and Norway led to sequential growth in subscribers, while advertising revenue accounted for 18% of core revenues, albeit with a slight organic decline. The executives emphasized continued focus on content ROI and partnerships, with sublicensing and other sales growing 165% organically, and outlined ongoing measures to combat account sharing and piracy. Cost control remains a priority, aiming to align content costs with revenue growth, and the company is on track to reduce EBIT losses, notwithstanding currency challenges. Looking ahead, VPLAY B.ST anticipates a strong content slate for Q4, including major sports events and popular reality formats, while underlining the importance of mutually beneficial partnerships with content suppliers and distribution partners.

Viaplay Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Viaplay faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenue and profitability, negative margins, and difficulties in cash flow generation. The balance sheet indicates moderate leverage but poor equity returns, raising concerns over financial stability.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Viaplay's income statement shows substantial revenue but declining profitability. The TTM gross profit margin stands at 11.69%, with a negative net profit margin of -3.44%, indicating losses. Revenue has contracted by 2.06% year-over-year, while EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational challenges and cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects moderate financial leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88. The equity ratio stands at 22.81%, indicating some reliance on debt. However, the negative return on equity highlights profitability issues. Overall, the balance sheet shows a mixed picture with moderate leverage but weak equity returns.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals negative operating cash flow in the TTM, with a free cash flow to net income ratio that is negative, indicating cash flow difficulties. Free cash flow has deteriorated significantly, showing a declining trend and raising concerns about liquidity and cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue18.11B18.49B18.57B15.69B12.66B12.00B
Gross Profit2.12B2.03B1.30B2.60B3.20B3.19B
EBITDA19.00M638.00M-9.97B455.00M819.00M3.26B
Net Income-623.00M106.00M-9.75B323.00M325.00M2.24B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.25B16.85B19.72B21.86B19.53B15.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments909.00M1.04B2.54B2.77B5.70B2.04B
Total Debt3.05B2.43B7.65B4.41B3.82B5.13B
Total Liabilities11.77B13.18B20.81B12.95B11.21B12.71B
Stockholders Equity3.48B3.68B-1.09B8.91B8.32B3.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.22B-2.04B-3.51B-3.19B261.00M1.38B
Operating Cash Flow-1.18B-2.00B-3.35B-3.00B477.00M1.53B
Investing Cash Flow49.00M105.00M-137.00M-502.00M243.00M-367.00M
Financing Cash Flow749.00M352.00M3.29B535.00M2.91B-301.00M

Viaplay Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price0.75
Price Trends
50DMA
0.64
Positive
100DMA
0.68
Positive
200DMA
0.68
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Negative
RSI
66.67
Neutral
STOCH
85.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:VPLAY.B, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.68, above the 50-day MA of 0.64, and above the 200-day MA of 0.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:VPLAY.B.

Viaplay Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
kr97.76B25.0316.69%4.54%1.16%5.52%
SEPDX
68
Neutral
$20.08B34.5319.48%2.63%-17.38%8.93%
63
Neutral
kr24.58B-20.56%1.25%-20115.92%
61
Neutral
$41.24B-0.79-14.21%3.80%2.39%-73.52%
58
Neutral
kr13.89B-0.89%19.35%-213.30%
49
Neutral
$3.43B5.19-15.68%-3.61%99.63%
48
Neutral
$24.54B4.115.32%-23.34%-1681.97%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SE:VPLAY.B
Viaplay
0.75
-0.05
-6.61%
SE:MTG.B
Modern Times Group AB
117.90
30.20
34.44%
SE:TEL2.B
Tele2 AB
140.95
44.40
45.99%
SE:PDX
Paradox Interactive AB
190.10
46.63
32.50%
SE:SINCH
Sinch AB
29.10
4.61
18.82%
SE:EMBRAC.B
Embracer Group AB
108.62
-40.66
-27.24%

Viaplay Corporate Events

Viaplay Completes Share Repurchase Program for Incentive Scheme
May 26, 2025

Viaplay Group AB has completed a repurchase program of 14,834,462 class B shares to secure shares for its long-term incentive program. This acquisition, conducted independently by DNB Carnegie Investment Bank AB on Nasdaq Stockholm, increases Viaplay’s holding to 31,341,244 class B shares, reflecting the company’s strategic financial maneuvers to support its incentive schemes.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:VPLAY.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viaplay stock, see the SE:VPLAY.B Stock Forecast page.

Viaplay Executes Share Repurchase to Support Incentive Program
May 19, 2025

Viaplay Group AB has repurchased 16.5 million of its own class B shares as part of a repurchase program to support its long-term incentive plan. This program, aligned with EU regulations, aims to secure shares for incentive participants, reflecting Viaplay’s strategic focus on rewarding its stakeholders and enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:VPLAY.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viaplay stock, see the SE:VPLAY.B Stock Forecast page.

Viaplay Group Announces Share Repurchase to Support Incentive Program
May 13, 2025

Viaplay Group’s Board of Directors has resolved to acquire its own class B shares to support the company’s long-term incentive program (LTIP 2025), as authorized by the Annual General Meeting. This decision allows Viaplay to repurchase shares up to SEK 25 million, ensuring the delivery of shares to participants after a three-year vesting period. The repurchase will be conducted by Carnegie Investment Bank AB, adhering to EU regulations, and aims to strengthen Viaplay’s market position by aligning stakeholder interests and enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:VPLAY.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viaplay stock, see the SE:VPLAY.B Stock Forecast page.

Viaplay Group’s 2025 AGM: Board Re-elections and New Incentive Plan
May 13, 2025

Viaplay Group held its 2025 Annual General Meeting, re-electing all current Board members and Simon Duffy as Chair. The AGM approved the financial statements and introduced a long-term incentive plan for key employees, contingent on share ownership targets and performance conditions. KPMG AB was re-elected as Auditor, and remuneration proposals were approved. These resolutions aim to strengthen Viaplay’s governance and incentivize key personnel, potentially impacting its market position and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:VPLAY.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK1.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Viaplay stock, see the SE:VPLAY.B Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025