Sinch AB (SE:SINCH)
:SINCH
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Sinch AB
(SINCH)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
kr22.50
▼(-2.89% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (downtrend across key moving averages) and a demanding valuation (high P/E). Financial performance is mixed—stronger cash generation and manageable leverage, but volatile earnings and soft recent revenue trends. Earnings-call commentary is constructive with reiterated targets, margin progress, and capital returns, though tempered by FX and regional headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation & Liquidity
Consistent free cash flow (SEK 1.5bn last 12 months) and durable cash conversion provide financing flexibility. Combined with active buybacks and available credit, this cash generation supports growth investment, shareholder returns, and resilience through cyclical revenue dips without stressing operations.
Negative Factors
Revenue Softness
Top‑line plateau and recent declines reduce operating leverage and make margin targets harder to sustain long‑term. Very thin net margins (~0.8% in 2025) signal limited earnings resilience absent clear and sustained revenue recovery or continued shift to higher‑margin offerings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation & Liquidity
Consistent free cash flow (SEK 1.5bn last 12 months) and durable cash conversion provide financing flexibility. Combined with active buybacks and available credit, this cash generation supports growth investment, shareholder returns, and resilience through cyclical revenue dips without stressing operations.
Read all positive factors
Sinch AB (SINCH) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr17.87B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)121.0
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth-1.62%
EPS Growth94.01%
CountrySE
Employees3,557
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.82
Shares Outstanding771,432,250
10 Day Avg. Volume2,007,619
30 Day Avg. Volume2,545,140
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.17
Price to Book (P/B)1.16
Price to Sales (P/S)0.97
P/FCF Ratio18.13
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
kr26.37Price Target Upside13.80% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr26.70B
Sinch AB Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sinch AB (publ) provides cloud communications services and solutions for enterprises and mobile operators in Sweden, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Brazil, India, Singapore, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. I...
How the Company Makes Money
Sinch generates revenue primarily through its subscription-based model and usage-based pricing for its communication services. Key revenue streams include charges for API usage in messaging, voice calls, and video services, where businesses pay ba...
Sinch AB Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial trajectory: Sinch delivered record profitability, margin expansion, continued organic gross profit growth, strong performance in the Americas and API platform, and significant momentum in next-generation messaging (RCS). These positives were tempered by meaningful FX headwinds, ongoing regional pressures (EMEA fixed-price contract phase-out and APAC challenges), a prior tax provision, and lower full-year cash conversion versus the prior year. Overall, management emphasized disciplined execution, active capital returns (buybacks), and strategic positioning for AI-driven growth.Positive Updates
Record Profitability and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 14% in Q4 (up 1 percentage point year-over-year) and gross margin expanded by 2 percentage points to 35%. Management stated this is the highest gross margin and EBITDA delivered to date and that the top end of the midterm EBITDA target (12%–14%) has been achieved ahead of schedule.
Negative Updates
Pronounced FX Headwinds
Foreign exchange had a significant negative impact in Q4: approximately -10% on net sales and -11% on gross profit, materially suppressing reported top-line results.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Profitability and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 14% in Q4 (up 1 percentage point year-over-year) and gross margin expanded by 2 percentage points to 35%. Management stated this is the highest gross margin and EBITDA delivered to date and that the top end of the midterm EBITDA target (12%–14%) has been achieved ahead of schedule.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated its mid‑term guidance and near‑term outlook: an organic gross profit growth target of 7–9% y/y by end‑2027 and an adjusted EBITDA margin target of 12–14% (noting Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin is already 14%); cash conversion guidance remains 40–50% (FY cash conversion 40%, Q4 84%, free cash flow SEK 1.5bn; multi‑year average ~50%); a leverage target below 2.5x (current net leverage ~1.6x); and active capital allocation including repurchasing 8.8% of shares to date, a Board proposal to cancel treasury shares to enable up to a further 10% buybacks until the AGM, and an illustrative capability to buy back ~10% of shares per year given historical ~50% FCF conversion (SEK 62m shares bought for ~SEK 1.9bn plus SEK 364m via swap; SEK 3.7bn undrawn credit available). Management also guided that Q1/H1 will show similar trends to H2 2025 (continued momentum in the Americas and API platform but ongoing headwinds in EMEA/APAC and phased‑out fixed‑price contracts) and noted a SEK 700m tax provision in Q4 with an estimated cash out of ~SEK 200m this year.Sinch AB Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 27.08B | 28.71B | 28.75B | 27.72B | 16.18B |
| Gross Profit | 1.20B | 10.07B | 2.51B | 8.81B | 3.93B |
| EBITDA | 5.12B | -3.20B | 3.10B | -1.96B | 1.96B |
| Net Income | 217.00M | -6.41B | 42.00M | -4.94B | 907.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 40.15B | 48.00B | 53.13B | 57.28B | 57.08B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 553.00M | 1.08B | 1.01B | 2.17B | 1.87B |
| Total Debt | 6.91B | 7.09B | 2.36B | 11.34B | 12.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 17.41B | 18.98B | 19.47B | 22.85B | 23.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 22.74B | 29.02B | 33.66B | 34.43B | 34.05B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.45B | 2.35B | 1.16B | 1.86B | 150.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.10B | 2.94B | 1.79B | 2.51B | 328.71M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -650.00M | -604.00M | -649.00M | -691.00M | -29.06B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.89B | -2.23B | -2.34B | -1.51B | 26.45B |
Sinch AB Technical Analysis
Neutral
23.17
Price Trends
23.90
Negative
26.74
Negative
28.52
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.35
Negative
51.20
Neutral
57.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:SINCH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 23.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.69, below the 50-day MA of 23.90, and below the 200-day MA of 28.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SE:SINCH.
Sinch AB Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | kr131.93B | 23.36 | 21.35% | 4.15% | 0.51% | 14.15% | |
61 Neutral | kr181.67B | 44.32 | 10.93% | 5.14% | -5.76% | -10.05% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
54 Neutral | kr17.87B | 121.04 | 0.88% | ― | -1.62% | 94.01% | |
43 Neutral | kr184.35M | -2.06 | ― | ― | -13.07% | -372.35% | |
42 Neutral | kr236.23M | -2.89 | 0.35% | ― | 10.36% | -100.68% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SE:SINCH
Sinch AB
23.17
1.15
5.22%
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189.90
63.47
50.20%
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47.40
13.67
40.54%
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Transtema Group AB
5.50
-8.10
-59.56%
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3.80
-8.48
-69.06%
Sinch AB Corporate Events
Sinch Cancels 8.8% of Shares in Capital Structure Optimization
Feb 19, 2026
Sinch AB’s extraordinary general meeting approved the cancellation of 74,211,294 previously repurchased shares, representing about 8.78% of its total shares, to increase flexibility in capital allocation and give the board renewed capacity t...
Sinch Delivers Record Profitability and Expands AI Partnerships Amid Share Buybacks
Feb 17, 2026
Sinch AB closed 2025 with record-high profitability, lifting its adjusted EBITDA margin into the 12–14 percent range it had targeted for 2027, despite modest organic revenue growth and significant currency headwinds. Gross profit rose organi...
Sinch Calls Extraordinary Meeting to Cancel Treasury Shares and Preserve Buyback Flexibility
Jan 23, 2026
Sinch AB has called an Extraordinary General Meeting for 19 February 2026 to seek shareholder approval to cancel all 74,211,294 shares the company has repurchased, representing about 8.78 percent of its total shares. The cancellation is intended t...
Sinch Updates Share Count After Incentive Program Exercise
Dec 30, 2025
Sinch AB has updated its share capital structure, confirming that the total number of shares and votes now amounts to 845,611,910. The change follows the issuance of 33,794 new shares in December, stemming from the exercise of stock options and wa...
Sinch AB Announces Increase in Shares and Votes
Nov 28, 2025
Sinch AB has announced an increase in its number of shares and votes to 845,578,116 following the issuance of 642,149 new shares due to the exercise of stock options and warrants. This change reflects the company’s ongoing incentive programs...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.