Catena Media plc (SE:CTM)
:CTM
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Catena Media
(CTM)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
kr2.50
▲(55.28% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is driven primarily by improved cash generation and a constructive earnings update with stronger year-over-year profitability, but capped by ongoing net losses and several execution/financial risks (search headwinds, higher direct-cost mix, and deferred hybrid-capital interest). Technicals and valuation are supportive but not strong enough to outweigh profitability concerns.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow with strong FCF growth provides durable internal funding for marketing, product rollouts and working capital. This reduces near‑term reliance on external financing and supports reinvestment even while accounting profits lag.
Negative Factors
Hybrid capital accrual
Accumulating deferred interest on a large hybrid instrument creates a growing contractual claim on cash or equity conversion risk. The open timetable to address it increases refinancing and covenant uncertainty, potentially constraining strategic flexibility over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow with strong FCF growth provides durable internal funding for marketing, product rollouts and working capital. This reduces near‑term reliance on external financing and supports reinvestment even while accounting profits lag.
Read all positive factors
Catena Media (CTM) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr195.06M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)116.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.1
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth8.09%
EPS Growth88.25%
CountrySE
Employees173
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.12
Shares Outstanding78,773,420
10 Day Avg. Volume192,407
30 Day Avg. Volume116,689
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.11
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio1.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr40.00M
Catena Media Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Catena Media plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides lead generation and related services for operators of online casino, sports betting, and financial trading platforms. It operates through three segments, Casino, Sports, and Financial Trad...
How the Company Makes Money
Catena Media primarily makes money as an affiliate/lead-generation publisher by sending users from its owned-and-operated websites to partner operators (most notably online gambling operators, and historically also financial services providers). R...
Catena Media Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive year‑over‑year performance: solid revenue growth, a material improvement in adjusted EBITDA and margins, strong customer acquisition, product launches and clear cost discipline. These positives are tempered by quarter‑on‑quarter declines (compared to an exceptionally strong Q4), organic search headwinds, a concentrated North American revenue base, increased direct costs from a strategic channel mix shift, and an accumulating deferred interest obligation on hybrid capital. On balance, the improvements in profitability, cash generation and strategic progress outweigh the noted risks and short‑term headwinds.Positive Updates
Year-over-Year Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of EUR 12.3 million, up 26% versus Q1 2025 (and +41% year‑over‑year when adjusted for foreign exchange), representing a meaningful step-up from the prior-year quarter and establishing a higher revenue baseline.
Negative Updates
Quarter-on-Quarter Revenue and EBITDA Softness
Revenue declined 21% versus Q4 2025 and adjusted EBITDA fell 43% quarter‑on‑quarter (Q4 2025 was a particularly strong comparative quarter), indicating volatility quarter-to-quarter despite strong year-over-year progress.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Year-over-Year Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of EUR 12.3 million, up 26% versus Q1 2025 (and +41% year‑over‑year when adjusted for foreign exchange), representing a meaningful step-up from the prior-year quarter and establishing a higher revenue baseline.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call guided toward sustaining the recent baseline and pursuing measured growth: Q1 revenue was €12.3m (+26% YoY, -21% QoQ; +41% YoY FX‑adjusted) with adjusted EBITDA €2.7m (≈tripled YoY / +191%, -43% QoQ) and a 22% adjusted EBITDA margin (third consecutive quarter >20%; would be ~28% excl. €0.8m bonus accrual); management highlighted new depositing customers up 88% YoY to 34,573 (another commentary noted +58% YoY), segment mix of Casino 88% of revenue (Casino revenue +43% YoY; Casino NDCs +98% YoY, -19% QoQ) and Sports 12% (€1.5m, -34% YoY; Sports NDCs -17% YoY, +15% QoQ; Sports adjusted EBITDA margin ~30%); cost discipline metrics included total costs €9.7m (+8% YoY, -11% QoQ), direct costs +110% YoY (-22% QoQ), normalized costs ex-directs and incentives -26% YoY, personnel costs down (≈18% YoY; ~32–36% lower excl. accruals); cash/coverage: operating cash flow €4.4m (vs €3.2m LY), cash €13.7m (vs €24.6m LY), no senior debt, hybrid capital nominal €44m with ~€1.4m quarterly interest and €5.4m accrued deferred interest (likely to remain deferred), and near‑term catalysts include Alberta launch 13 July (raising regulated sports/casino population coverage to ~51%/17%) plus roll‑outs of PlayPerks and MRKTPLAYS+ with planned near‑term capital deployment.Catena Media Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 48.87M | 46.60M | 49.64M | 76.75M | 110.12M | 136.11M |
| Gross Profit | 29.50M | 34.20M | 38.65M | 63.31M | 98.74M | 120.62M |
| EBITDA | -4.13M | -5.64M | -40.59M | -11.21M | 49.05M | -405.00K |
| Net Income | -9.55M | -11.56M | -48.21M | -38.24M | 25.62M | -7.17M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 121.72M | 113.11M | 146.81M | 242.03M | 322.63M | 366.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.71M | 9.32M | 8.48M | 38.51M | 23.87M | 26.96M |
| Total Debt | 39.24M | 29.00K | 21.85M | 57.59M | 76.66M | 88.75M |
| Total Liabilities | 44.48M | 5.58M | 23.98M | 66.84M | 100.11M | 137.65M |
| Stockholders Equity | 77.24M | 107.53M | 122.83M | 175.18M | 222.52M | 228.52M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.05M | 6.25M | 137.00K | 19.91M | 26.87M | 22.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.79M | 7.51M | 2.66M | 20.04M | 56.38M | 65.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.92M | 19.41M | 11.62M | 34.34M | -30.91M | -43.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -23.34M | -24.90M | -44.74M | -34.88M | -27.66M | -24.18M |
Catena Media Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.61
Price Trends
2.39
Positive
2.14
Positive
2.08
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
49.52
Neutral
14.44
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:CTM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.53, below the 50-day MA of 2.39, and below the 200-day MA of 2.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SE:CTM.
Catena Media Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | kr12.20B | 12.71 | 23.20% | 5.03% | -1.24% | -21.32% | |
69 Neutral | kr4.11B | 33.13 | 4.76% | ― | -11.15% | -53.91% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | kr195.06M | 3.07 | -19.82% | ― | 8.09% | 88.25% | |
47 Neutral | kr188.05M | -3.15 | -74.31% | ― | 16.20% | 78.91% | |
46 Neutral | kr117.81M | -3.18 | ― | ― | 36.87% | 23.41% | |
44 Neutral | kr48.79M | -2.47 | 27.44% | ― | -48.06% | ― |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SE:CTM
Catena Media
2.50
0.77
44.51%
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Catena Media Corporate Events
Optimus Invest takes significant stake in Catena Media
May 18, 2026
Catena Media has disclosed that investment firm Optimus Invest Limited has acquired a significant stake in the company, holding 5.0777% of its shares and voting rights as of 19 December 2024. The notification, made public under Malta’s capit...
Catena Media Posts Strong Q1 as North American Casino and New Verticals Drive Margin Expansion
May 12, 2026
Catena Media reported a strong first quarter of 2026 as its streamlined continuing operations delivered revenue of EUR 12.3 million, up 26 percent year-on-year, with North America contributing 95 percent of the total. Adjusted EBITDA from continui...
Catena Media schedules Q1 2026 results and investor webcast
May 5, 2026
Catena Media, a Malta-based performance marketing specialist for online casino and sports betting operators, continues to leverage a wide portfolio of brands to channel players to partner platforms worldwide and support its position on the Nasdaq ...
Catena Raises SEK 3.25bn in Green Bonds to Refinance Debt and Fund Growth
Apr 28, 2026
Catena has issued SEK 3.25 billion in senior unsecured green bonds under its MTN programme, with maturities of two, three and five years and a mix of floating and fixed rates. The proceeds will be used to refinance bonds maturing in July 2026 and ...
Catena AGM Approves SEK 9.50 Dividend and Expands Capital Mandates
Apr 23, 2026
Catena’s Annual General Meeting in Helsingborg approved a dividend of SEK 9.50 per share for the 2025 financial year, to be paid in two equal instalments in April and October 2026. Shareholders adopted the 2025 accounts, granted discharge fr...
Catena lifts Q1 earnings and expands Nordic logistics portfolio
Apr 23, 2026
Catena reported a solid first quarter, with rental income up 9 percent to SEK 701 million and profit from property management rising 7 percent to SEK 424 million, while net profit climbed to SEK 464 million and EPRA NRV per share strengthened. Des...
Catena Sells Ten Swedish Logistics Properties Above Book Value to Emilshus
Apr 20, 2026
Catena has agreed to sell ten Swedish logistics properties to Emilshus for SEK 614 million as part of a strategic reshaping of its portfolio. The assets, located in Halmstad, Trelleborg, Växjö, Ängelholm, and Malmö, comprise 53...
Catena Media Sets 2026 AGM in Malta, Tightens Shareholder Participation Rules
Apr 10, 2026
Catena Media has called its 2026 annual general meeting for 27 May in St. Julian’s, Malta, setting out detailed procedures for shareholder participation in person or by proxy via the Euroclear Sweden system. The notice underscores the import...
Catena Media Highlights Strategy and Governance in 2025 Annual Report
Mar 24, 2026
Catena Media, a Malta-based affiliate marketing specialist for online casino and sports betting operators, focuses on delivering high-value leads in North America and other selected markets. Its branded platforms aim to enhance user experience and...
Catena AB Issues Integrated 2025 Annual and Sustainability Report Highlighting Stable Year and ESG Focus
Mar 24, 2026
Catena AB has published its integrated Annual Report and Sustainability Report for 2025, combining financial statements, governance disclosures and detailed sustainability data in a single document. The report, prepared under IFRS and GRI Standard...
Catena convenes 2026 AGM with broad voting options for shareholders
Mar 23, 2026
Catena has called its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 23 April in Helsingborg, inviting shareholders registered with Euroclear Sweden by 15 April to attend or vote. The company is offering flexible participation options, including physical presenc...
Catena updates MTN prospectus following Finnish logistics acquisition move
Mar 13, 2026
Catena has issued a supplementary prospectus to its existing medium-term note program, originally published in May 2025, after agreeing to acquire a portfolio of logistics properties that will mark its establishment in the Finnish market. The upda...
Catena expands Jönköping logistics portfolio with SEK 189m terminal acquisition
Mar 10, 2026
Catena has strengthened its logistics footprint in the Jönköping region with the acquisition of the Äringen 2 terminal in the Ljungarum industrial area, a deal valued at SEK 189 million including committed investments. The 59,000-sq...
Catena’s Nomination Committee Proposes Largely Unchanged Board With One New Director
Mar 6, 2026
Catena’s Nomination Committee has presented its proposals ahead of the 23 April 2026 Annual General Meeting, recommending that the Board comprise six members, with five current directors, including chair Lennart Mauritzson, standing for re-e...
Catena strengthens management with new Head of Technology and Sustainability
Mar 2, 2026
Catena has strengthened its executive leadership by appointing Johan Jaxell as Head of Technology and Sustainability and adding him to the company’s management team. Jaxell, who joined Catena in 2024 and previously held senior roles at Heims...
Fitch affirms Catena’s BBB rating after SEK 8.8bn Nordic logistics acquisition
Feb 20, 2026
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Catena’s long-term credit rating at BBB with a stable outlook, underscoring the rating agency’s confidence in the company’s financial profile and risk management. The decision comes in the wake of Caten...
Catena boosts earnings and dividend as major Nordic logistics deal secures Finland entry
Feb 20, 2026
Catena reported a solid 2025, underscoring its strong position in the Nordic logistics property market with rental income up 21 percent to SEK 2,651 million and net operating surplus up 23 percent. Profit from property management climbed 28 percen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.