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Kambi Group plc Class B (SE:KAMBI)
:KAMBI
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Kambi Group
(KAMBI)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
kr113.00
▲(5.61% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial stability (low leverage) but pressured profitability and weaker free cash flow, which cap the financial performance rating. Technicals remain bearish with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD. The earnings call adds support via higher 2026 profit guidance and operational initiatives, though meaningful tax/regulatory, FX, and migration risks persist. Valuation cannot be favorably assessed from the provided P/E and dividend yield fields.
Positive Factors
Very high gross profit margin
A 90% gross profit margin is a durable competitive advantage for a B2B sports-technology provider. It signals strong unit economics and pricing power versus peers, allowing reinvestment in product, risk management, and sales while insulating core profitability from moderate revenue volatility over 2–6 months.
Conservative balance sheet and low leverage
Very low leverage provides structural financial flexibility to fund product development, pursue market entry (e.g., US opportunities) and absorb regulatory delays without forced capital raises. It reduces refinancing risk and supports strategic choices over the medium term.
PAM source-code acquisition to expand addressable market
Owning PAM source code materially lowers technical and commercial barriers for entering regulated US markets like Nevada. This is a structural product expansion that can drive new operator wins, diversify revenue streams, and increase long-term addressable market beyond core sportsbook services.
Negative Factors
Guidance cut and project delays
A downward EBITDA revision tied to FX, macro pressures and delayed launches indicates execution risk and shorter-term margin pressure. Persisting delays reduce expected near-term cash generation and signal that timing of strategic rollouts may be uncertain over the coming quarters.
Revenue contraction
Sustained or recurring revenue declines reduce operating leverage and limit ability to scale fixed-cost investments. For a revenue-share B2B model, declines signal partner trading weakness, regulatory friction, or market conversion issues that can persist several quarters without new operator traction.
Free cash flow deterioration
A large drop in free cash flow constrains reinvestment capacity and optionality for M&A or product rollout funding. Even with positive operating cash conversion, weaker FCF limits buffer for cyclical headwinds and may force prioritization of initiatives, slowing strategic progress over months.
Kambi Group (KAMBI) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr2.82B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)68.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)52.6
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth-5.16%
EPS Growth-48.79%
CountrySE
Employees1,043
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.85
Shares Outstanding27,709,944
10 Day Avg. Volume74,319
30 Day Avg. Volume68,235
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.98
Price to Book (P/B)2.22
Price to Sales (P/S)2.21
P/FCF Ratio93.82
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
kr141.16Price Target Upside31.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr175.93M
Kambi Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKambi Group plc operates as a business-to-business supplier of managed sports betting services to business-to-consumer gaming operators in Europe, the Americas, and internationally. The company's services include compliance, odds-compiling, customer intelligence, and risk management services built on an in-house developed software platform. Kambi Group plc was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Ta' Xbiex, Malta.
How the Company Makes MoneyKambi generates revenue through a business-to-business (B2B) model by supplying its sports betting technology and services to licensed operators. The primary revenue streams include a percentage of the wagering revenue generated by their partners, known as a revenue share model, and fixed fees for services provided. Additionally, Kambi benefits from performance-based incentives tied to the success of its partners' betting operations. Strategic partnerships with prominent gaming operators also bolster Kambi's earnings, as these collaborations expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings, thereby driving more betting activity through its platform.
Kambi Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear operational and strategic progress (margin expansion, strong AI adoption, major OLG launch, raised 2026 adjusted EBITA guidance, growing Odds Feed+ penetration and sizable cost-savings target) against persistent near-term headwinds (revenue decline excluding transition fees, YoY adjusted EBITA drop, migrations of large partners, multiple tax/regulatory risks and FX pressure). The company presented concrete levers (EUR 9m targeted savings, product-led diversification, AI-driven efficiency and a EUR 20–25m EBITA guidance) and a healthy balance sheet, indicating confidence in execution despite notable uncertainties.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Q4 Profitability Improvement
Adjusted EBITA (acq) for Q4 grew 16%; Q4 adjusted EBITA increased from EUR 6.3m to EUR 7.4m and quarter cash flow was EUR 6.0m.
Full-Year Financial Position and Cash
Full-year revenue EUR 162.0m; year-end cash EUR 32.9m in bank (management noted receipts after year-end take this to north of EUR 40m); full-year cash flow EUR 21.2m; company finished the year debt-free and executed EUR 25.8m of buybacks using excess cash.
Operator Trading Margin Expansion
Operator trading margin was 11.2% in Q4 and 10.8% for the full year (up from 10.0% in 2024, a +0.8 percentage point improvement); company raised forward guidance for operator trading margin to c.11%.
Upgraded 2026 Profit Guidance
Guidance for 2026 adjusted EBITA (acq) set at EUR 20m–EUR 25m (up from EUR 17.6m in 2025); company expects to be toward the upper end of the range assuming no new Colombia sports betting tax.
AI Adoption and Product Quality
49% of bets were fully AI traded in 2025 and management reported surpassing the 50% tipping point in January; AI pricing/trading cited as delivering sharper prices, higher acceptance rates and faster trading.
New Business Wins and Major Launch (OLG)
Multiple signings and launches: 15 partners added since start of Q4, recent turnkey launches include Ontario Lottery & Gaming (OLG) online and across 10,000 retail locations (contract through 2032) — OLG is a major contributor and over half of the '2026 launches' revenue column.
Odds Feed+ and Modular Revenue Growth
Odds Feed+ traction with new Tier-1 customers (e.g., ComeOn, FDJ UNITED) and management expects modular products (Odds Feed and others) to be north of 10% of 2026 revenue (guidance ~10–15%).
Operational Efficiency Initiatives
Cost reduction programs produced lower costs in 2025; management targets ~EUR 9m annual cash impact from ongoing efficiency programs in 2026 to offset inflationary pressures.
World Cup 2026 Opportunity
Management estimates World Cup '26 to represent roughly EUR 5m of incremental revenue (about a 3% top-line uplift) and expects the event to be fully AI-traded across the network, creating a material revenue and engagement opportunity.
Negative Updates
Full-Year Revenue Decline and EBITDA Pressure
Reported full-year revenue declined to EUR 162.0m from EUR 176.4m the prior year (prior year included EUR 12.5m transition fees); excluding transition fees, revenue was down c.1.2%. Full-year adjusted EBITA (acq) was EUR 17.6m, down EUR 7.8m year-on-year.
Transition Fee and Migration Impacts
Revenue comparisons were distorted by transition fees and migrations (notably Kindred and LeoVegas); Kindred turnkey contract will be fully out by end of the year, creating a year-on-year headwind that will persist into 2027 before disappearing as they transition to Odds Feed+.
Tax and Regulatory Headwinds
Multiple tax increases impacted 2025 and are a risk for 2026: Colombia deposit tax uncertainty, deposit limits and higher taxes in the Netherlands, increases in Brazil and Illinois, and a UK remote gaming duty increase (from 21% to 40% in April 2026) that may indirectly reduce operator marketing spend.
Foreign Exchange Headwind
FX, mainly U.S. dollar weakness, acted as a headwind to turnover and is incorporated as a negative factor in the guidance bridge.
Rising Cost of Sales and Inflationary Pressures
Cost of sales expected to increase due to recharged data supplier and other supply costs; operating expenses expected to be broadly flat but face salary and supplier inflation, requiring offset from efficiency programs and one-off costs affecting comparability.
Dependency Reduction Yet Concentration Remains
Although the share of revenue from the top 3 partners fell to 36% (improved diversification), revenue remains dependent on a relatively small number of large partners and large contract migrations/renewals create material volatility.
Uncertainty Around Colombia Tax and Other New Taxes
Guidance sensitivity to potential new Colombia sports betting tax (management noted a EUR 3.6m tailwind if no tax is introduced; the presence or level of any new tax materially affects expected outturn).
Competitive and Market Risks (Prediction Markets)
Rise of CFTC-regulated prediction markets in the U.S. could take share in unregulated areas and represents a potential long-term competitive threat; management has not yet seen material impact in regulated markets but views it as a risk to monitor.
Company Guidance
Kambi guided 2026 adjusted EBITA (acq) excluding FX revaluations of EUR 20–25m (up from EUR 17.6m in 2025), saying it expects to be toward the top end of that range if no new Colombia sports‑betting tax (no‑tax tailwind ≈ EUR 3.6m); it raised operator trading margin guidance to 11% (Q4 11.2%, FY25 10.8% vs 10% in 2024) and expects mid‑single‑digit organic growth (≈3–5% excl. FX) plus a ≈EUR 5m World Cup revenue boost (~3% of revenue). Management also said modular/Odds Feed revenue should be north of ~10–15% in 2026, is targeting ≈EUR 9m of annual cash savings, expects cost of sales to rise while OpEx is broadly flat, and set this guidance off a FY25 base of revenue EUR162m (Q4 EUR42.7m), FY adjusted EBITA EUR17.6m (Q4 EUR7.4m, +16% YoY), FY cash flow EUR21.2m, year‑end cash EUR32.9m (now >EUR40m after receipts), buybacks EUR25.8m, network liquidity ~EUR17bn with 1.6bn bet tickets p.a., >50% of bets AI‑traded (Jan), 53 turnkey + 7 Odds Feed partners, and top‑3 partner share down to 36%.Kambi Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong solvency and low leverage support stability (balance sheet score 86), but operating performance has weakened: 2025 revenue declined and margins compressed materially (income statement score 62). Cash generation is mixed—operating cash flow exceeds earnings, yet free cash flow fell sharply in 2025 and is volatile (cash flow score 55).Income Statement
Revenue has been relatively stable over the period, but growth has clearly cooled, including a decline in 2025 (annual revenue down ~4.4% after a modest increase in 2024). Profitability has also compressed materially versus the 2020–2022 highs: net margin fell from ~28.6% (2021) and ~15.9% (2022) to ~8.8% (2024) and ~4.2% (2025), with operating margin also down to ~5.9% in 2025. The key strength is that the business remains profitable and still posts healthy EBITDA margins (low-30% range recently), but the direction of earnings and margins is negative, which limits the score.62
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with very low leverage: debt-to-equity is ~3.1% in 2025 (down from ~18.3% in 2021). Equity remains sizable relative to assets, and returns on equity are positive (about ~4.2% in 2025), though well below prior-year levels (mid-teens to mid-30s earlier in the period). The main weakness is the declining return on equity, which reflects weaker profitability rather than financial risk; overall solvency and balance sheet flexibility remain strong.86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains solid and continues to exceed accounting earnings (operating cash flow is about 1.56x net income in 2025), which is a positive quality signal. However, free cash flow has weakened sharply: 2025 free cash flow fell to ~3.8M (down ~79.8% versus 2024), and free cash flow is low relative to net income (~12% in 2025 versus ~45% in 2024). This suggests higher cash outflows below operating cash flow (e.g., investment or working-capital pressure), making cash generation less dependable year to year.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 162.02M | 176.41M | 173.30M | 166.01M | 162.42M |
| Gross Profit | 162.02M | 176.41M | 173.30M | 166.01M | 162.42M |
| EBITDA | 49.81M | 59.47M | 57.51M | 63.51M | 79.21M |
| Net Income | 6.81M | 15.45M | 14.90M | 26.45M | 46.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 187.46M | 220.13M | 214.89M | 242.89M | 196.86M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 32.89M | 66.22M | 55.05M | 60.70M | 79.66M |
| Total Debt | 4.99M | 9.49M | 12.99M | 20.68M | 24.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 26.38M | 39.80M | 42.74M | 79.50M | 61.48M |
| Stockholders Equity | 161.07M | 180.32M | 172.15M | 163.39M | 135.38M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.82M | 24.24M | 18.67M | 20.58M | 47.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 31.68M | 53.70M | 49.84M | 49.00M | 72.33M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.31M | -29.66M | -42.73M | -64.78M | -39.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -30.19M | -13.07M | -17.35M | -1.86M | -14.25M |
Kambi Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
107.00
Price Trends
114.93
Negative
119.43
Negative
124.14
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.45
Negative
45.62
Neutral
38.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:KAMBI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 107 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.63, below the 50-day MA of 114.93, and below the 200-day MA of 124.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SE:KAMBI.
Kambi Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | kr120.02B | 11.07 | ― | 5.04% | 2.04% | -0.10% | |
73 Outperform | kr13.78B | 10.54 | 23.20% | 5.03% | 11.84% | 12.09% | |
62 Neutral | kr174.38M | -0.99 | -19.82% | ― | -25.10% | 82.01% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | kr2.82B | 52.58 | 4.76% | ― | -5.16% | -48.79% | |
54 Neutral | kr6.06B | 123.28 | 2.04% | 6.24% | -2.98% | -30.48% | |
39 Underperform | kr167.58M | -3.44 | -74.31% | ― | 13.37% | 43.23% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.