Evolution Gaming Group AB (EVO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr107.79B
• Dividend Yield: 5.04%
• Average Volume (3M): 518.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 2.04%
• EPS Growth: -0.10%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 16,368
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos
• EPS (TTM): 16.42
• Shares Outstanding: 204,462,160
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 499,890
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 518,856
• PEG Ratio: -1.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr616.06
• Price Target Upside: 16.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.34
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr2.14B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: kr624.00 ▲(18.36% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is driven primarily by very strong financial quality (high margins, low leverage, solid cash generation) and compelling valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (downtrend across key moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-call headwinds around Europe softness, Live revenue pressure, and regulatory/cybersecurity and legal uncertainties despite stable margin guidance.

Positive Factors

High and Durable Margins

Evolution's sustained adjusted EBITDA margins near 66% and long-run net margins around 50–60% indicate a structurally advantaged business model with strong pricing power and low incremental costs. These margins support durable free cash flow, capital reinvestment, and shareholder returns even if top-line growth slows.

Conservative Balance Sheet & High ROE

Exceptionally low leverage and rising equity provide financial flexibility for M&A, buybacks, or downturns without stressing liquidity. Combined with historically high ROE (~19–31%, ~27% in 2025), this reflects efficient capital allocation and the ability to fund strategic expansion while maintaining solvency.

Strong Cash Generation & Shareholder Returns

Robust operating cash flow and close free-cash-flow conversion underpin a repeatable capacity to return capital: ~EUR 1.1bn paid in 2025 and >EUR 3.5bn since 2020. This cash generation supports continued buybacks, dividends and funding of product/studio expansion without levering the balance sheet materially.

Negative Factors

Revenue Growth Normalization

After rapid scale through 2020–2024, top-line momentum has normalized and 2025 showed a small revenue decline. Slower revenue growth reduces the potential to leverage fixed-cost advantages and could temper long-term earnings growth, making margin maintenance rely more on efficiency than sales expansion.

Regulatory & Cybersecurity Uncertainty

Persistent regulatory probes and approval risk (including UK and specific U.S. state scrutiny) plus cybersecurity and unauthorized distribution issues in parts of Asia create structural compliance and market-access risks. These can delay expansions, add compliance costs, and constrain long-run market reach.

Live Revenue & Regional Exposure

Live dealer offerings are core to Evolution's value proposition; a sustained decline (Live revenue -4.5% in the quarter) and Europe weakness highlight regional concentration risks. If growth in North/LatAm can't fully offset Europe or Live softness, structural revenue mix shifts and margin pressure from localization could persist.

Evolution Gaming Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators primarily in Europe and the United States. The company runs the game from a casino gaming table, which is streamed in real time and end users make betting decisions on their devices, such as computers, smartphones, tablets, etc. Its portfolio of online live table games primarily includes Live Roulette, Blackjack, Baccarat, Super Sic Bo, Dragon Tiger, Craps, Live Casino Hold'em, Three Card Poker, and Ultimate Texas Hold'em; and operates approximately 1000 tables. The company was formerly known as Evolution Gaming Group AB (publ). Evolution AB (publ) was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Evolution Gaming generates revenue primarily through a business-to-business (B2B) model by licensing its live casino software and services to online gaming operators. The company charges operators a fee based on a percentage of the players' wagers or a fixed fee structure. Key revenue streams include live dealer game offerings, which are available across various platforms and devices, as well as ancillary services such as game development and customization for clients. Significant partnerships with major online gambling operators and platforms further bolster Evolution's revenue, enabling it to capture a larger share of the expanding online gaming market. Additionally, the company's investment in technology and infrastructure ensures high-quality streaming and gaming experiences, which attract more operators and players, ultimately driving revenue growth.

Evolution Gaming Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Elite profitability and strong cash generation with very low leverage. The main offset is growth normalization: 2025 shows flat-to-slightly negative revenue momentum and some margin/coverage softening versus prior years, though absolute margins remain best-in-class.

Income Statement

Profitability is exceptionally strong and consistent, with net profit margins staying around ~50–60% across 2020–2025 and EBITDA margins holding near ~65%+. Revenue scaled rapidly from 2020 through 2024, showing strong momentum, but 2025 shows a slight revenue decline (negative growth) and some compression in net margin versus 2023–2024—signaling growth normalization and modest profitability pressure despite still-best-in-class margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is very conservative: debt remains low versus equity (debt-to-equity roughly ~0.02–0.04), and equity has grown over time, supporting financial flexibility. Returns on equity are strong (roughly ~19% to ~31% historically, ~27% in 2025), indicating efficient capital use. The main watch item is a small uptick in leverage in 2025 versus prior years, though absolute leverage remains minimal.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and high-quality: operating cash flow generally meets or exceeds net income (about ~1.0–2.1x historically), and free cash flow tracks closely to earnings (roughly ~0.88–0.95 of net income). Free cash flow has grown strongly over the period, including a notable jump in 2025. The key weakness is that cash conversion in 2025 is only about ~1.0x of net income (down from stronger coverage in 2022–2024), implying less buffer if working capital or taxes become less favorable.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.12B	2.21B	1.80B	1.46B	1.07B
Gross Profit	2.12B	2.21B	1.80B	1.46B	1.07B
EBITDA	1.42B	1.48B	1.20B	954.58M	694.86M
Net Income	1.06B	1.24B	1.07B	843.36M	605.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.50B	5.35B	4.97B	4.37B	3.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	815.10M	787.07M	972.46M	511.95M	404.79M
Total Debt	163.33M	93.66M	79.46M	79.55M	67.81M
Total Liabilities	1.44B	1.37B	967.27M	909.09M	712.12M
Stockholders Equity	4.06B	3.97B	4.01B	3.46B	3.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.21B	1.16B	1.07B	780.53M	537.30M
Operating Cash Flow	1.28B	1.30B	1.17B	877.47M	598.89M
Investing Cash Flow	-147.89M	-247.97M	-139.36M	-371.60M	-154.95M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.11B	-1.24B	-574.50M	-394.20M	-248.52M

Evolution Gaming Group AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 527.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:EVO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 527.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 552.02, below the 50-day MA of 589.37, and below the 200-day MA of 700.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -19.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:EVO.

Evolution Gaming Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EVO	73 Outperform	kr107.79B	9.09	―	5.04%	2.04%	-0.10%
BETS.B	73 Outperform	kr12.89B	6.47	23.20%	5.03%	11.84%	12.09%
KAMBI	65 Neutral	kr2.74B	30.95	4.76%	―	-5.16%	-48.79%
BETCO	62 Neutral	kr6.93B	24.28	―	―	-7.81%	-8.76%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
CTM	60 Neutral	kr175.94M	-0.98	-19.82%	―	-25.10%	82.01%
ACROUD	51 Neutral	kr180.37M	-0.47	-74.31%	―	13.37%	43.23%

Evolution Gaming Group AB Corporate Events

Evolution’s 2025 Profits Slide as Regulatory and Cyber Headwinds Bite, but Global Expansion and New Games Underpin Outlook

Evolution reported a softer 2025, with fourth-quarter net revenues down 3.7% to EUR 514.2 million and full-year net revenues essentially flat at EUR 2.07 billion, while adjusted EBITDA margins narrowed to about 66% and profit and earnings per share declined double digits year-on-year. Management framed 2025 as operationally strong despite headwinds from tighter European regulations, cybercrime issues and competitor misconduct, highlighting solid growth in Asia, North America, Latin America and Africa, an expanded global live-table footprint to roughly 2,000 tables, and a significant upcoming product pipeline, including new titles from its exclusive Hasbro licensing deal; the company plans to prioritize expansion in the US and Latin America, invest more selectively in Europe, and expects margins in 2026 to remain broadly in line with 2025, with the Board set to decide later in the quarter on capital allocation and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:EVO) stock is a Hold with a SEK623.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Gaming Group AB stock, see the SE:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Evolution AB Completes Share Repurchase Program

Evolution AB has completed its share repurchase program, acquiring 133,140 shares on December 8, 2025, to improve its capital structure and enhance shareholder value. The program, compliant with EU regulations, involved Citibank executing trades independently, resulting in Evolution holding 5,235,549 own shares out of a total of 204,462,162 shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:EVO) stock is a Hold with a SEK630.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Gaming Group AB stock, see the SE:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Evolution AB Enhances Capital Structure with Share Repurchase

Evolution AB has repurchased 142,000 of its own shares between December 1 and December 5, 2025, as part of a repurchase program aimed at improving its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value. The program, compliant with EU regulations, allows for a maximum acquisition of 20,446,216 shares, with 1,485,038 shares acquired since October 24, 2025. The transactions were executed on Nasdaq Stockholm by Citibank, and Evolution’s current holding of own shares stands at 5,102,409.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:EVO) stock is a Hold with a SEK630.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Gaming Group AB stock, see the SE:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Evolution AB Enhances Capital Structure with Share Buyback

Evolution AB has repurchased 76,000 of its own shares as part of a buyback program aimed at improving its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value. This initiative, compliant with EU regulations, has seen a total of 1,343,038 shares acquired since October 2025, with a maximum of 20,446,216 shares available for repurchase, reflecting the company’s strategic financial management efforts.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:EVO) stock is a Hold with a SEK630.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Gaming Group AB stock, see the SE:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Evolution and Galaxy Gaming Extend Merger Agreement Amid Regulatory Progress

Evolution and Galaxy Gaming have extended their merger agreement deadline to July 17, 2026, as they work towards completing the acquisition, with remaining regulatory approvals expected by Q1 2026. This merger aims to enhance Evolution’s market position and accelerate Galaxy Gaming’s growth, leveraging Evolution’s global reach while maintaining Galaxy’s operational independence.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:EVO) stock is a Hold with a SEK630.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Gaming Group AB stock, see the SE:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Evolution AB Enhances Shareholder Value Through Share Repurchase

Evolution AB has repurchased 432,000 of its own shares between November 17 and November 21, 2025, as part of a repurchase program aimed at improving its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value. This initiative is conducted under the EU Market Abuse Regulation and Safe Harbour Regulation, with Citibank executing the transactions independently. As of November 21, 2025, Evolution holds 4,884,409 of its own shares, with a total of 1,267,038 shares acquired since the program’s inception on October 24, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:EVO) stock is a Buy with a SEK696.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Gaming Group AB stock, see the SE:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Evolution AB Enhances Capital Structure with Share Repurchase

Evolution AB has repurchased 191,629 of its own shares between November 10 and November 14 as part of a repurchase program aimed at improving its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value. This program, compliant with EU regulations, allows for a maximum acquisition of 20,446,216 shares, with 835,038 shares acquired since October 24. The repurchases were conducted on Nasdaq Stockholm by Citibank, and the company’s total shareholding now stands at 4,452,409.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:EVO) stock is a Buy with a SEK696.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Gaming Group AB stock, see the SE:EVO Stock Forecast page.

Evolution AB Enhances Shareholder Value Through Share Repurchase

Evolution AB has repurchased 324,409 of its own shares from November 3 to November 7, 2025, as part of a repurchase program aimed at improving its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value. The program, compliant with EU regulations, allows for a maximum acquisition of 20,446,216 shares, with Citibank independently managing the purchases on Nasdaq Stockholm. This strategic move is expected to positively impact Evolution’s financial standing and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:EVO) stock is a Buy with a SEK696.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Gaming Group AB stock, see the SE:EVO Stock Forecast page.