Evolution Gaming Group AB (SE:EVO)
:EVO
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Evolution Gaming Group AB
(EVO)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
kr624.00
▲(3.79% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/07/26
The score is driven primarily by very strong financial quality (high margins, low leverage, solid cash generation) and compelling valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (downtrend across key moving averages with negative MACD) and earnings-call headwinds around Europe softness, Live revenue pressure, and regulatory/cybersecurity and legal uncertainties despite stable margin guidance.
Positive Factors
High and Durable Margins
Evolution's sustained adjusted EBITDA margins near 66% and long-run net margins around 50–60% indicate a structurally advantaged business model with strong pricing power and low incremental costs. These margins support durable free cash flow, capital reinvestment, and shareholder returns even if top-line growth slows.
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth Normalization
After rapid scale through 2020–2024, top-line momentum has normalized and 2025 showed a small revenue decline. Slower revenue growth reduces the potential to leverage fixed-cost advantages and could temper long-term earnings growth, making margin maintenance rely more on efficiency than sales expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and Durable Margins
Evolution's sustained adjusted EBITDA margins near 66% and long-run net margins around 50–60% indicate a structurally advantaged business model with strong pricing power and low incremental costs. These margins support durable free cash flow, capital reinvestment, and shareholder returns even if top-line growth slows.
Read all positive factors
Evolution Gaming Group AB (EVO) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr122.92B
Dividend Yield5.04%
Average Volume (3M)518.86K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth2.04%
EPS Growth-0.10%
CountrySE
Employees16,368
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)16.80
Shares Outstanding204,462,160
10 Day Avg. Volume499,890
30 Day Avg. Volume518,856
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.10
Price to Book (P/B)2.89
Price to Sales (P/S)5.55
P/FCF Ratio9.69
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
kr618.85Price Target Upside2.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)5.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr2.13B
Evolution Gaming Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Evolution AB (publ) develops, produces, markets, and licenses live casino and slots solutions to gaming operators primarily in Europe and the United States. The company runs the game from a casino gaming table, which is streamed in real time and e...
How the Company Makes Money
Evolution Gaming generates revenue primarily through a business-to-business (B2B) model by licensing its live casino software and services to online gaming operators. The company charges operators a fee based on a percentage of the players' wagers...
Evolution Gaming Group AB Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly constructive operational and financial picture: strong adjusted EBITDA margin, robust cash and capital returns, successful product launches, and aggressive 2026 product and studio road map. At the same time, material regional challenges — notably a weaker-than-expected Q4 in Europe, Live revenue decline, cyber-crime issues in parts of Asia, regulatory uncertainty (UK, Nevada) and ongoing litigation — introduce execution and timing risks. On balance the company demonstrated resilience (flat full-year revenue, strong margins, healthy cash and shareholder returns) and a clear plan to grow via product and geographic expansion, but near-term regional/regulatory headwinds temper the outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Margin
Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 341.5m in Q4 with a quarterly margin of 66.4%; full-year adjusted EBITDA EUR 1,366m (down 3.2% YoY) and a full-year margin of 66.1%, which is within the communicated 66–68% range.
Negative Updates
Sequential and YoY Revenue Pressure in Q4 (Europe Headwind)
CEO reported Q4 net revenues of EUR 540m (QoQ +1.4%, YoY -3.7%) while CFO reported EUR 514m (difference linked to a EUR 51.7m earn-out reduction). Europe declined both YoY and QoQ and was the principal drag on Live and overall group revenue in Q4.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Margin
Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 341.5m in Q4 with a quarterly margin of 66.4%; full-year adjusted EBITDA EUR 1,366m (down 3.2% YoY) and a full-year margin of 66.1%, which is within the communicated 66–68% range.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Evolution guided to deliver 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin in line with 2025 (around 66%); for context 2025 full‑year net revenues were EUR 2,067m (+0.2%), adjusted EBITDA EUR 1,366m (‑3.2%) and margin 66.1% (within the communicated 66–68% range), with Q4 revenues EUR 514m, Q4 adjusted EBITDA EUR 341.5m (66.4% margin) and Q4 operating cash flow after investments EUR 262m (cash conversion 82%). Management also noted FY CapEx EUR 134.8m (Q4 CapEx EUR 38.5m), year‑end cash EUR 818m, bond portfolio EUR 104m, equity ≈EUR 4.1bn, profit Q4 EUR 306.8m and FY profit EUR 1.06bn (EPS diluted EUR 1.54); plans include >110 new games in 2026, continued U.S. and LatAm expansion (new Michigan studio), ~870 customers (top‑5 share down to 39%, largest ≈12%), 300 new tables added in 2025, an intended closing of the Galaxy acquisition within the timeline (before 17 July) and a Board decision on 2025 capital allocation to be announced later this quarter.Evolution Gaming Group AB Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.12B | 2.21B | 1.80B | 1.46B | 1.07B |
| Gross Profit | 2.12B | 2.21B | 1.80B | 1.46B | 1.07B |
| EBITDA | 1.42B | 1.48B | 1.20B | 954.58M | 694.86M |
| Net Income | 1.06B | 1.24B | 1.07B | 843.36M | 605.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.50B | 5.35B | 4.97B | 4.37B | 3.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 815.10M | 787.07M | 972.46M | 511.95M | 404.79M |
| Total Debt | 163.33M | 93.66M | 79.46M | 79.55M | 67.81M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.44B | 1.37B | 967.27M | 909.09M | 712.12M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.06B | 3.97B | 4.01B | 3.46B | 3.19B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.21B | 1.16B | 1.07B | 780.53M | 537.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.28B | 1.30B | 1.17B | 877.47M | 598.89M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -147.89M | -247.97M | -139.36M | -371.60M | -154.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.11B | -1.24B | -574.50M | -394.20M | -248.52M |
Evolution Gaming Group AB Technical Analysis
Positive
601.20
Price Trends
566.94
Positive
594.31
Positive
687.00
Negative
Market Momentum
10.39
Negative
57.23
Neutral
65.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:EVO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 601.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 588.51, above the 50-day MA of 566.94, and below the 200-day MA of 687.00, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 10.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:EVO.
Evolution Gaming Group AB Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | kr122.92B | 11.07 | ― | 5.04% | 2.04% | -0.10% | |
73 Outperform | kr12.44B | 10.54 | 23.20% | 5.03% | 11.84% | 12.09% | |
68 Neutral | kr7.94B | 27.41 | ― | ― | -7.81% | -8.76% | |
62 Neutral | kr182.97M | -0.99 | -19.82% | ― | -25.10% | 82.01% | |
61 Neutral | kr3.52B | 52.58 | 4.76% | ― | -5.16% | -48.79% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
39 Underperform | kr170.14M | -3.44 | -74.31% | ― | 13.37% | 43.23% |
* General Sector Average
SE:EVO
Evolution Gaming Group AB
601.20
-157.43
-20.75%
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Evolution Gaming Group AB Corporate Events
Evolution’s 2025 Profits Slide as Regulatory and Cyber Headwinds Bite, but Global Expansion and New Games Underpin Outlook
Feb 5, 2026
Evolution reported a softer 2025, with fourth-quarter net revenues down 3.7% to EUR 514.2 million and full-year net revenues essentially flat at EUR 2.07 billion, while adjusted EBITDA margins narrowed to about 66% and profit and earnings per shar...
Evolution AB Completes Share Repurchase Program
Dec 15, 2025
Evolution AB has completed its share repurchase program, acquiring 133,140 shares on December 8, 2025, to improve its capital structure and enhance shareholder value. The program, compliant with EU regulations, involved Citibank executing trades i...
Evolution AB Enhances Capital Structure with Share Repurchase
Dec 8, 2025
Evolution AB has repurchased 142,000 of its own shares between December 1 and December 5, 2025, as part of a repurchase program aimed at improving its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value. The program, compliant with EU regulations, a...
Evolution AB Enhances Capital Structure with Share Buyback
Dec 1, 2025
Evolution AB has repurchased 76,000 of its own shares as part of a buyback program aimed at improving its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value. This initiative, compliant with EU regulations, has seen a total of 1,343,038 shares acqui...
Evolution and Galaxy Gaming Extend Merger Agreement Amid Regulatory Progress
Nov 25, 2025
Evolution and Galaxy Gaming have extended their merger agreement deadline to July 17, 2026, as they work towards completing the acquisition, with remaining regulatory approvals expected by Q1 2026. This merger aims to enhance Evolution’s mar...
Evolution AB Enhances Shareholder Value Through Share Repurchase
Nov 24, 2025
Evolution AB has repurchased 432,000 of its own shares between November 17 and November 21, 2025, as part of a repurchase program aimed at improving its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value. This initiative is conducted under the EU M...
Evolution AB Enhances Capital Structure with Share Repurchase
Nov 17, 2025
Evolution AB has repurchased 191,629 of its own shares between November 10 and November 14 as part of a repurchase program aimed at improving its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value. This program, compliant with EU regulations, allow...
Evolution AB Enhances Shareholder Value Through Share Repurchase
Nov 10, 2025
Evolution AB has repurchased 324,409 of its own shares from November 3 to November 7, 2025, as part of a repurchase program aimed at improving its capital structure and enhancing shareholder value. The program, compliant with EU regulations, allow...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.