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Catena Media
(CTM)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
kr4.50
â–²(40.19% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial quality (notably positive and growing free cash flow) but constrained by continued net losses and negative returns. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages, while valuation remains pressured due to loss-making earnings. The latest earnings call adds support via improved EBITDA/margins and cash generation, tempered by search and cost-mix risks plus deferred hybrid interest.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow despite accounting losses indicates the core affiliate model converts traffic into real cash. That strengthens liquidity, funds reinvestment in product/platform rollouts, reduces near-term refinancing needs and supports strategic initiatives over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Persistent losses
Despite cash and EBITDA improvements, the company remains loss-making on an accounting basis and posts negative returns (TTM ROE ~-10%). Continued conversion to GAAP profitability is required to justify capital allocation, reduce reliance on non‑operational financing and improve long-term investor returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow despite accounting losses indicates the core affiliate model converts traffic into real cash. That strengthens liquidity, funds reinvestment in product/platform rollouts, reduces near-term refinancing needs and supports strategic initiatives over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Catena Media (CTM) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr292.59M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)116.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth8.09%
EPS Growth88.25%
CountrySE
Employees160
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.12
Shares Outstanding78,773,420
10 Day Avg. Volume192,407
30 Day Avg. Volume116,689
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.11
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio1.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr40.00M
Catena Media Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Catena Media plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides affiliation marketing services for operators of online sports betting and casino platforms in North America and Latin America. The company operates in two segments, Casino and Sports. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Catena Media primarily makes money through affiliate marketing arrangements with iGaming operators. It publishes content and marketing pages designed to attract users via SEO, owned media, and other digital channels, then monetizes that traffic by...
Catena Media Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive year‑over‑year performance: solid revenue growth, a material improvement in adjusted EBITDA and margins, strong customer acquisition, product launches and clear cost discipline. These positives are tempered by quarter‑on‑quarter declines (compared to an exceptionally strong Q4), organic search headwinds, a concentrated North American revenue base, increased direct costs from a strategic channel mix shift, and an accumulating deferred interest obligation on hybrid capital. On balance, the improvements in profitability, cash generation and strategic progress outweigh the noted risks and short‑term headwinds.Positive Updates
Year-over-Year Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of EUR 12.3 million, up 26% versus Q1 2025 (and +41% year‑over‑year when adjusted for foreign exchange), representing a meaningful step-up from the prior-year quarter and establishing a higher revenue baseline.
Negative Updates
Quarter-on-Quarter Revenue and EBITDA Softness
Revenue declined 21% versus Q4 2025 and adjusted EBITDA fell 43% quarter‑on‑quarter (Q4 2025 was a particularly strong comparative quarter), indicating volatility quarter-to-quarter despite strong year-over-year progress.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Year-over-Year Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of EUR 12.3 million, up 26% versus Q1 2025 (and +41% year‑over‑year when adjusted for foreign exchange), representing a meaningful step-up from the prior-year quarter and establishing a higher revenue baseline.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call guided toward sustaining the recent baseline and pursuing measured growth: Q1 revenue was €12.3m (+26% YoY, -21% QoQ; +41% YoY FX‑adjusted) with adjusted EBITDA €2.7m (≈tripled YoY / +191%, -43% QoQ) and a 22% adjusted EBITDA margin (third consecutive quarter >20%; would be ~28% excl. €0.8m bonus accrual); management highlighted new depositing customers up 88% YoY to 34,573 (another commentary noted +58% YoY), segment mix of Casino 88% of revenue (Casino revenue +43% YoY; Casino NDCs +98% YoY, -19% QoQ) and Sports 12% (€1.5m, -34% YoY; Sports NDCs -17% YoY, +15% QoQ; Sports adjusted EBITDA margin ~30%); cost discipline metrics included total costs €9.7m (+8% YoY, -11% QoQ), direct costs +110% YoY (-22% QoQ), normalized costs ex-directs and incentives -26% YoY, personnel costs down (≈18% YoY; ~32–36% lower excl. accruals); cash/coverage: operating cash flow €4.4m (vs €3.2m LY), cash €13.7m (vs €24.6m LY), no senior debt, hybrid capital nominal €44m with ~€1.4m quarterly interest and €5.4m accrued deferred interest (likely to remain deferred), and near‑term catalysts include Alberta launch 13 July (raising regulated sports/casino population coverage to ~51%/17%) plus roll‑outs of PlayPerks and MRKTPLAYS+ with planned near‑term capital deployment.Catena Media Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 49.13M | 46.60M | 49.64M | 76.75M | 110.12M | 136.11M |
| Gross Profit | 30.47M | 34.20M | 38.65M | 63.31M | 98.74M | 120.62M |
| EBITDA | -4.13M | -5.64M | -40.59M | -11.21M | 49.05M | -405.00K |
| Net Income | -9.53M | -11.56M | -48.21M | -38.24M | 25.62M | -7.17M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 121.72M | 113.11M | 146.81M | 242.03M | 322.63M | 366.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 13.71M | 9.32M | 8.48M | 38.51M | 23.87M | 26.96M |
| Total Debt | 39.24M | 37.86M | 21.85M | 57.59M | 76.66M | 88.75M |
| Total Liabilities | 44.48M | 5.58M | 23.98M | 66.84M | 100.11M | 137.65M |
| Stockholders Equity | 77.24M | 107.53M | 122.83M | 175.18M | 222.52M | 228.52M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.05M | 6.25M | 137.00K | 19.91M | 26.87M | 22.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.79M | 7.51M | 2.66M | 20.04M | 56.38M | 65.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.92M | 19.41M | 11.62M | 34.34M | -30.91M | -43.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -23.34M | -24.90M | -44.74M | -34.88M | -27.66M | -24.18M |
Catena Media Technical Analysis
Positive
3.21
Price Trends
2.82
Positive
2.60
Positive
2.28
Positive
Market Momentum
0.37
Negative
70.48
Negative
85.12
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:CTM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.26, above the 50-day MA of 2.82, and above the 200-day MA of 2.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.48 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:CTM.
Catena Media Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | kr12.41B | 8.48 | 15.17% | 7.83% | -2.36% | -31.79% | |
72 Outperform | kr4.64B | 38.47 | 7.14% | ― | -10.22% | -33.31% | |
62 Neutral | kr292.59M | -2.77 | -9.30% | ― | 8.09% | 88.25% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
55 Neutral | kr41.19M | 2.76 | 65.43% | ― | -48.06% | ― | |
54 Neutral | kr186.77M | -7.39 | -13.09% | ― | 18.40% | 95.30% | |
41 Neutral | kr95.41M | -2.34 | -9999.00% | ― | 36.87% | 23.41% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SE:CTM
Catena Media
4.40
2.56
139.39%
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SE:GCOR
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SE:FRAG
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Catena Media Corporate Events
Catena Media schedules Q2 2026 interim results presentation
Aug 4, 2026
Catena Media, a Malta-based leader in online casino and sports betting lead generation, operates a sizable portfolio of digital brands that channel players to operator platforms and promote an improved user experience. The company employs more tha...
Catena boosts earnings as it reshapes Nordic logistics portfolio and expands green financing
Jul 6, 2026
Catena AB reported robust financial performance for the first half of 2026, with rental income rising 17 percent to SEK 1,510 million and net operating surplus up 17 percent to SEK 1,267 million. Profit from property management increased 14 percen...
Nordic Compound Invest Takes 10% Stake in Catena Media
Jul 2, 2026
Nordic Compound Invest A/S has disclosed that it acquired a significant stake in Catena Media, bringing its ownership to 10.0132 percent of the company’s shares and voting rights as of 30 June 2026. The move, reported under Malta’s cap...
Catena Media Wins Approval for Share Buyback Authorisation
Jun 30, 2026
Catena Media plc has received shareholder approval at an extraordinary general meeting to initiate a share buyback programme on Nasdaq Stockholm or other regulated markets. The authorisation runs for up to 18 months, until the 2027 annual general ...
Catena appoints Finnish regional manager as logistics push accelerates
Jun 16, 2026
Catena has strengthened its Nordic logistics footprint by appointing real estate specialist Henrik Eskolin as Regional Manager for its newly established Finnish market. The move underscores the company’s strategy of combining local presence ...
Catena Sells Two Logistics Properties Above Valuation to Refocus Portfolio
Jun 4, 2026
Catena has divested two logistics properties, Varla 6:15 in Kungsbacka and Glasblåsaren 14 in Linköping, with a combined lettable area of about 35,000 square metres. The assets were sold for approximately SEK 430 million, generating annu...
Catena JV Sells Final Sörred Logistics Park Property to Platzer for SEK 570m
Jun 2, 2026
Sörred Logistics Park, a 50/50 joint venture between Catena and Platzer, has agreed to sell the Gothenburg logistics property Sörred 8:15 to Platzer under a purchase option granting Platzer priority to acquire completed projects on marke...
Catena Updates MTN Base Prospectus to Support Nordic Bond Issuance
May 29, 2026
Catena has refreshed the base prospectus for its Medium Term Note program, first set up in 2021, to support continued bond issuance in the Nordic capital market. The updated document, approved and registered by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Au...
Catena Media AGM Backs New Incentive Plan and Governance Measures but Delays Share Buyback
May 27, 2026
Catena Media’s 2026 Annual General Meeting approved the 2025 consolidated financial statements but backed the board’s proposal not to pay a dividend, signalling a continued emphasis on capital retention. Shareholders confirmed a four-m...
Catena Media Calls Fresh Vote on Share Buyback Mandate at Extraordinary Meeting
May 27, 2026
Catena Media has called an extraordinary general meeting for 30 June 2026 in Malta after an earlier attempt at its annual general meeting to pass an extraordinary resolution authorising share buybacks failed to secure both of the supermajorities r...
Catena buys DHL logistics hub at Helsinki Airport to bolster Finnish portfolio
May 26, 2026
Catena has expanded its Finnish footprint by acquiring a major logistics property in Aviapolis, Vantaa, adjacent to Helsinki Airport, in a share deal valuing the asset at about SEK 719 million and financed through equity and external credit facili...
Catena boosts Nordic footprint with Helsinki Airport logistics acquisition
May 20, 2026
Catena has agreed to acquire a modern logistics property adjacent to Helsinki Airport in Aviapolis, Vantaa, for an underlying property value of about SEK 575 million. The asset, completed in 2021 and fully leased to Cramo Finland under a 10-year a...
Optimus Invest takes significant stake in Catena Media
May 18, 2026
Catena Media has disclosed that investment firm Optimus Invest Limited has acquired a significant stake in the company, holding 5.0777% of its shares and voting rights as of 19 December 2024. The notification, made public under Malta’s capit...
Catena Media Posts Strong Q1 as North American Casino and New Verticals Drive Margin Expansion
May 12, 2026
Catena Media reported a strong first quarter of 2026 as its streamlined continuing operations delivered revenue of EUR 12.3 million, up 26 percent year-on-year, with North America contributing 95 percent of the total. Adjusted EBITDA from continui...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.