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Catena Media plc (SE:CTM)
:CTM

Catena Media (CTM) AI Stock Analysis

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SE:CTM

Catena Media

(CTM)

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Neutral 51 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
kr1.50
▼(-6.83% Downside)
Catena Media's overall stock score reflects financial difficulties, with negative profitability metrics and bearish technical indicators. Despite positive earnings call highlights, such as revenue growth and operational improvements, regulatory challenges and valuation concerns weigh heavily on the score.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
A 38% TTM increase in free cash flow indicates the business is converting online affiliate revenue into cash more effectively. Strong FCF enhances financial flexibility to fund product development, platform investments and weather cyclical downturns without immediate external financing.
Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion
Adjusted EBITDA doubled and margin rose to 25%, reflecting meaningful operational leverage from cost optimisation. Sustained margin improvement points to structural efficiency gains that can support profitability conversion if revenue growth persists and cost controls remain disciplined.
Very low financial leverage
An almost negligible debt-to-equity ratio signals minimal leverage risk and strong equity backing. This durable balance sheet strength reduces refinancing vulnerability, supports strategic investments and provides capacity to absorb shocks from regulatory or market headwinds.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative profitability
Negative net and EBIT margins indicate the core affiliate model is not yet producing sustainable profits. Continued losses erode equity returns and limit retained capital for growth initiatives, increasing reliance on cash generation improvements or structural cost reductions to restore profitability.
Historical revenue decline and volatility
Material historical revenue contraction undermines scale advantages in affiliate marketing where volume drives commissions. Revenue volatility reduces predictability of commissions and weakens bargaining power with operators, making long-term margin recovery and investment planning more challenging.
Regulatory and asset impairment risks
Regulatory uncertainty around sweepstakes and search trends presents structural demand risk. A EUR 16.5m impairment shows legacy assets underperforming, while deferred hybrid interest signals constrained cash allocation—together they heighten execution risk for long-term recovery.

Catena Media (CTM) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Catena Media Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCatena Media plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides lead generation and related services for operators of online casino, sports betting, and financial trading platforms. It operates through three segments, Casino, Sports, and Financial Trading. The Casino segment provides insights and offers that connects people interested in slots, poker, blackjack, and other casino games with selected platform operators. The Sports segment publishes targeted content, as well as background on sports teams, individuals, and fixtures that informs sports, fantasy sports, and esports betting fans and helps to choose the right offers from online operators. The Financial Trading segment provides content on financial investing in markets, such as equities, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrencies. It also owns and develops websites and media platforms, which attract visitors through traffic and paid marketing. The company operates in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Latin America, North America, and Oceania. Catena Media plc was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Gzira, Malta.
How the Company Makes MoneyCatena Media generates revenue primarily through affiliate marketing, where it earns commissions for directing traffic to online gambling operators. The company's revenue model is based on a cost-per-acquisition (CPA) structure, meaning it receives payments from operators each time a referred customer registers and makes a deposit. Key revenue streams include performance-based commissions, which can vary based on the type of gambling service utilized (e.g., sports betting, casino games). Additionally, Catena Media may earn revenue through advertising placements on its websites and strategic partnerships with online gaming operators, enhancing its market reach and financial performance. The company's extensive network of affiliate websites across various jurisdictions further contributes to its earnings, enabling it to capitalize on the growing online gambling market.

Catena Media Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights significant revenue and earnings growth, operational efficiencies, and strategic focus on North America. However, these positive aspects are tempered by challenges such as regulatory uncertainties, impairment losses, deferred interest payments, and a decline in sports revenue. The company expresses cautious optimism while acknowledging potential headwinds in future quarters.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Q3 revenue amounted to EUR 11.6 million, a 9% increase versus Q3 2024 and a 22% increase versus Q2 2025. Adjusted for the weaker U.S. dollar, revenue increased by 15% from Q3 2024.
Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA improved to EUR 2.9 million, more than double from the previous quarter and Q3 2024. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 25%, up from 14% in the previous quarter and 13% in Q3 2024.
Operational Efficiency
The cost optimization program resulted in a 6.9% year-on-year reduction in operating expenses, contributing to improved efficiency across all business areas.
Geographical Revenue Focus
North America contributed 96% of group revenue, reflecting the company's strategic focus on this geography.
Launch of Marketplace Platform
The launch of the sub-affiliation platform Marketplace showed strong results, enhancing service delivery and empowering affiliates and operators in North America.
Negative Updates
Regulatory Uncertainty and Market Challenges
The company faces regulatory uncertainty surrounding social sweepstakes casinos and the challenges posed by generative search trends, presenting headwinds for future quarters.
Impairment Losses
A EUR 16.5 million impairment loss was recorded during the quarter due to underperformance in legacy Rest of World casino assets and North American sports assets.
Deferred Interest Payments
The company has deferred interest payments on its hybrid capital security, with accumulated deferred interest totaling EUR 2.5 million.
Sports Revenue Decline
Sports revenue decreased by 28% versus last year to EUR 1.8 million, with performance remaining unsatisfactory and requiring more time to improve.
Company Guidance
In the Q3 2025 call, Catena Media reported a robust performance with revenue reaching EUR 11.6 million, marking a 9% year-on-year increase and a 22% rise compared to Q2 2025. Adjusted for currency fluctuations, revenue was up 15% from Q3 2024. The adjusted EBITDA grew to EUR 2.9 million, more than doubling from the previous quarter and Q3 2024, with the margin improving to 25% from 14% in the last quarter. The company highlighted progress in operational efficiency, noting a 6.9% reduction in the cost base year-on-year. Revenue from North America reached a record high of 96%, underscoring the geographical focus. Despite positive results, the company acknowledged potential challenges from regulatory uncertainties and generative search trends. They deferred hybrid capital interest payments totaling EUR 2.5 million to maintain cash flexibility. The company aims to continue diversifying revenue streams, particularly through its sub-affiliation platform, Marketplace, and remains cautious about future headwinds.

Catena Media Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Catena Media faces financial challenges with negative net and EBIT margins, indicating profitability issues. Despite a strong equity position and improved cash flow generation, the company struggles with declining revenue trends and negative return metrics.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Catena Media's income statement reveals a challenging financial position with negative net and EBIT margins over the TTM period, indicating operational inefficiencies and profitability issues. Despite a slight revenue growth of 2.36% in the TTM, the company has been unable to translate this into positive earnings, as evidenced by the negative net profit margin of -106.91%. Historical data shows a declining revenue trend, with significant revenue drops in previous years, further impacting profitability.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet of Catena Media shows a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0015 in the TTM, indicating minimal leverage risk. However, the return on equity is negative at -35.29%, reflecting poor returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio remains healthy, suggesting a stable asset base, but the negative ROE highlights the need for improved operational performance to enhance shareholder value.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Catena Media's cash flow statement indicates a mixed performance. The company has achieved a significant free cash flow growth of 38.05% in the TTM, suggesting improved cash generation capabilities. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.90 reflects a reliance on cash flow rather than profitability. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.65 indicates that while cash flow generation is improving, it is not yet sufficient to cover net losses.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue41.19M49.64M76.75M110.12M136.11M105.99M
Gross Profit31.99M38.65M63.31M98.74M120.62M95.91M
EBITDA-11.09M-40.59M-11.21M49.05M-405.00K33.77M
Net Income-15.73M-48.21M-38.24M25.62M-7.17M12.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets109.23M146.81M242.03M322.63M366.17M340.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments8.37M8.48M38.51M23.87M26.96M28.75M
Total Debt94.00K21.85M57.59M76.66M88.75M90.50M
Total Liabilities4.00M23.98M66.84M100.11M137.65M100.74M
Stockholders Equity105.22M122.83M175.18M222.52M228.52M240.12M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.95M137.00K19.91M26.87M22.45M37.30M
Operating Cash Flow5.92M2.66M20.04M56.38M65.80M48.98M
Investing Cash Flow21.97M11.62M34.34M-30.91M-43.36M-10.45M
Financing Cash Flow-36.83M-44.74M-34.88M-27.66M-24.18M-19.58M

Catena Media Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price1.61
Price Trends
50DMA
1.81
Negative
100DMA
1.97
Negative
200DMA
1.93
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Negative
RSI
46.54
Neutral
STOCH
62.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:CTM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.68, below the 50-day MA of 1.81, and below the 200-day MA of 1.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:CTM.

Catena Media Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
kr14.85B6.6623.20%5.03%11.84%12.09%
65
Neutral
kr3.24B37.284.76%-5.16%-48.79%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
51
Neutral
kr129.05M-0.71-19.82%-25.10%82.01%
51
Neutral
kr176.53M-0.47-74.31%13.37%43.23%
45
Neutral
kr71.40M-0.53-229.41%-10.21%-1.15%
41
Neutral
kr171.62M-3.7732.83%13.34%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SE:CTM
Catena Media
1.65
-2.31
-58.23%
SE:BETS.B
Betsson AB
106.40
-27.19
-20.36%
SE:KAMBI
Kambi Group
123.10
0.50
0.41%
SE:ACROUD
Acroud AB
0.14
-0.15
-52.90%
SE:GCOR
Gaming Corps AB
1.18
0.63
114.55%
SE:FRAG
Fragbite Group AB
8.84
3.29
59.28%

Catena Media Corporate Events

Nordic Compound Investment Takes 5% Stake in Catena Media
Jan 13, 2026

Catena Media has disclosed that Nordic Compound Investment A/S has acquired a significant stake in the company, now holding 5.0% of its shares and voting rights as of 9 January 2026. The crossing of this ownership threshold, reported under Malta’s Capital Markets Rules, signals the arrival of a new notable shareholder that could influence future governance dynamics and investor perceptions of the betting-affiliate group.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CTM) stock is a Sell with a SEK1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Catena Media stock, see the SE:CTM Stock Forecast page.

Catena Media Board Member Stephen Taylor-Matthews to Step Down in January 2026
Jan 9, 2026

Catena Media announced that non-executive board member Stephen Taylor-Matthews will step down from the board of directors effective 31 January 2026, leaving the board with four non-executive directors until the next annual general meeting. Taylor-Matthews, who played a key role in strengthening the company’s search engine optimisation, technology team and internal product processes during a pivotal phase of the group’s transformation, departs with public recognition from Chairman Erik Flinck for his contribution, signalling continuity in the board’s oversight despite the leadership change.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CTM) stock is a Hold with a SEK2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Catena Media stock, see the SE:CTM Stock Forecast page.

Catena Signs LOI for SEK 9 Billion Nordic Logistics Property Portfolio
Dec 22, 2025

Catena AB has signed a letter of intent to acquire a major portfolio of 20 logistics properties across Sweden, Denmark and Finland valued at about SEK 9 billion, adding roughly 600,000 square metres of lettable space to its holdings. The largely Swedish and Finnish portfolio comprises modern, high-quality assets in prime logistics locations with well-known tenants and an average remaining lease term of around 11 years, and Catena plans to finance the deal through existing liquidity and additional debt. The prospective transaction, which would mark a significant expansion into the Finnish market and reinforce Catena’s position as a leading Nordic logistics real estate player, is targeted for signing in the second half of February 2026 with closing expected on 1 April 2026, although the company cautions that the non-binding LOI may not necessarily result in a final agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CTM) stock is a Hold with a SEK2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Catena Media stock, see the SE:CTM Stock Forecast page.

Investment AB Öresund Cuts Stake in Catena Media to 4.9%
Dec 19, 2025

Catena Media has disclosed that Swedish investment company Investment AB Öresund has reduced its stake in the group, now holding 4.9 percent of the shares and voting rights as of 16 December 2025. The change in ownership, reported under Malta’s Capital Markets Rules and published via the company’s website, may signal a modest shift in the shareholder structure of the Stockholm-listed affiliate marketing specialist, information closely watched by investors tracking institutional support and liquidity in the stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CTM) stock is a Hold with a SEK2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Catena Media stock, see the SE:CTM Stock Forecast page.

Catena Appoints New Regional Manager for Region East
Nov 24, 2025

Catena has appointed Pierre Mazeret as the new Regional Manager for Region East, bringing his extensive experience in property management to the role. This strategic appointment is expected to enhance Catena’s operations in Region East, which includes significant logistics space across northern Sweden and key cities, potentially strengthening the company’s market position and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CTM) stock is a Sell with a SEK2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Catena Media stock, see the SE:CTM Stock Forecast page.

Catena Advances Logistics Position Ramlösa with ICA Lease Agreements
Nov 19, 2025

Catena has signed lease agreements with ICA Fastigheter AB for its Logistics Position Ramlösa project in Helsingborg, marking the final phase of development. The project, which includes three logistics facilities, will see ICA leasing space in both an existing facility and a new building, set to be completed by early 2027. This development strengthens Catena’s position in the logistics hub of Helsingborg, with significant investments and collaborations with major players like ICA and Nowaste Logistics, enhancing its market presence and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CTM) stock is a Sell with a SEK2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Catena Media stock, see the SE:CTM Stock Forecast page.

Catena Media Reports Strong Q3 2025 with Revenue Diversification
Nov 4, 2025

Catena Media reported a solid third quarter in 2025, with a 9% increase in revenue from continuing operations and a significant improvement in adjusted EBITDA, which rose by 119%. The company has been focusing on revenue diversification, with strong growth in North America and advancements in its CRM and subaffiliation platforms. Despite facing challenges in the sports sector and regulatory changes in the social sweepstakes casino market, Catena Media continues to enhance its technological infrastructure and SEO capabilities to drive future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CTM) stock is a Hold with a SEK2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Catena Media stock, see the SE:CTM Stock Forecast page.

Catena Media to Release Q3 2025 Interim Report
Oct 28, 2025

Catena Media has announced that it will publish its interim report for the third quarter of 2025 on November 4. The release will be followed by a webcast and teleconference hosted by the CEO and CFO, allowing stakeholders to engage and ask questions, which may impact the company’s transparency and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CTM) stock is a Hold with a SEK2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Catena Media stock, see the SE:CTM Stock Forecast page.

Catena Reports Strong Q3 Growth with Increased Profits
Oct 24, 2025

Catena reported a solid quarter with a 32% increase in profit from property management, reaching SEK 401 million. The company also saw a 25% rise in rental income and a 28% increase in net operating surplus. Catena’s strong financial performance is attributed to its low loan-to-value ratio and proactive strategies, positioning it well to seize opportunities and meet stakeholder demands.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CTM) stock is a Hold with a SEK2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Catena Media stock, see the SE:CTM Stock Forecast page.

Catena Revises Growth and Sustainability Targets for 2026
Oct 23, 2025

Catena AB has revised its growth and sustainability targets in its 2026 business plan. The company now aims for a 10% annual compounded growth rate in profit from property management per share over five years and a 12% growth rate in net asset value per share over the same period. Additionally, Catena has adjusted its net zero greenhouse gas emissions target to 2040, with an interim goal of 50% reduction by 2030. These changes reflect Catena’s commitment to generating strong cash flow and sustainable growth, while maintaining its dividend and finance policies.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:CTM) stock is a Hold with a SEK2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Catena Media stock, see the SE:CTM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 27, 2025