Catena Media (CTM) AI Stock Analysis

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Catena Media

(OTC:CTM)

Rating:38Underperform

Price Target:

kr1.50

▼(-14.77%Downside)

Catena Media's overall stock score is significantly impacted by its weak financial performance, characterized by declining revenues, profitability issues, and high debt levels. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend with oversold conditions, suggesting potential short-term volatility. The negative valuation metrics further underscore investor concerns.

Catena Media (CTM) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Market Cap

kr137.32M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)99.37K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)0.13

Revenue Growth-31.61%

EPS Growth26.26%

CountrySE

Employees173

SectorCommunication Services

Sector Strength86

IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.11

Shares Outstanding78,773,420

10 Day Avg. Volume111,619

30 Day Avg. Volume99,368

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio>-0.01

Price to Book (P/B)0.14

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio121.59

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

Catena Media Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCatena Media (CTM) is a leading online performance marketing and lead generation company, specializing in the iGaming and financial services industries. The company operates globally, providing high-quality, data-driven marketing solutions for its partners. Catena Media's core services include generating leads and driving online traffic through various digital channels, offering affiliate marketing services to enhance customer acquisition efforts for its clients.

How the Company Makes MoneyCatena Media makes money primarily through affiliate marketing by partnering with online gambling operators and financial services companies. The company generates revenue by directing high-quality traffic to its partners' websites and receiving commissions for each user acquisition. This performance-based model includes Cost Per Acquisition (CPA), where Catena Media earns a fixed fee for each new customer referred, and Revenue Share agreements, where the company receives a percentage of the revenue generated by the referred customers over time. Additionally, Catena Media enhances its revenue streams through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, which expand its market reach and diversify its service offerings.

Catena Media Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025

(Q3-2024)

% Change Since: -5.58%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Negative

The earnings call highlighted significant cost savings and improvements in adjusted EBITDA and debt reduction. However, these positive aspects were overshadowed by a substantial decline in revenue, particularly in the Sports segment, and a large noncash impairment charge. The company's strategy to reduce reliance on new state launches and focus on organic growth is a positive step, but the current financial challenges present a concerning outlook.

Q3-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Cost Savings from Organizational Restructuring

The restructuring, including a reduction of 29 employees, will generate an annual cost saving of around EUR 2.2 million starting in Q4.

Adjusted EBITDA Improvement

Adjusted EBITDA improved 97% quarter-on-quarter with the margin improving from 5% in Q2 to 13% in Q3, peaking at 18% at the end of the quarter.

Debt Reduction

Net interest debt decreased year-over-year by 43% to EUR 14.6 million, and the company holds a net cash position of EUR 7.4 million when including future proceeds from divested assets.

Negative Updates

Significant Revenue Decline

Q3 revenue from continued operations was EUR 10.7 million, down 33% from the previous year, and North America Casino revenue decreased 12% year-on-year.

Sports Segment Underperformance

Sports revenue decreased to EUR 2.5 million versus EUR 5.7 million for Q3 2023, with NDCs decreasing by 57%.

Noncash Impairment Charge

A noncash impairment charge of EUR 40 million was related to a write-down in the book value of certain Sports and Casino assets.

Company Guidance

During Catena Media's Q3 2024 earnings call, the company provided detailed guidance focusing on cost-saving measures, revenue trends, and strategic outlook. The executive team highlighted a new organizational structure that resulted in the layoff of 29 employees, saving EUR 2.2 million annually starting in Q4. The financial summary revealed a 33% decline in Q3 revenue from continued operations to EUR 10.7 million, while adjusted EBITDA dropped 58% year-on-year to EUR 1.3 million. However, EBITDA improved 97% quarter-on-quarter, with margins rising from 5% in Q2 to 13% in Q3. North America contributed 89% of group revenue, indicating a regional focus. The company also noted a significant EUR 40 million non-cash impairment charge to adjust the book value of certain assets. Despite challenging market conditions, particularly in the sports segment, Catena Media remains committed to diversifying its revenue streams and focusing on organic growth, targeting double-digit growth in 2025. The strategic plan emphasizes people, product, and profitability, aiming to build a sustainable revenue model less reliant on new market launches.

Catena Media Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

Cash Flow

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
49.64M	76.75M	110.12M	136.11M	105.99M
	Gross Profit
38.65M	63.31M	98.74M	120.62M	95.91M
	EBIT
-46.46M	-21.68M	28.41M	51.09M	25.61M
	EBITDA
-40.59M	-11.21M	49.05M	-405.00K	33.77M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-48.21M	-38.24M	25.62M	-7.17M	12.52M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
8.48M	38.51M	23.87M	26.96M	28.75M
	Total Assets
146.81M	242.03M	322.63M	366.17M	340.86M
	Total Debt
21.85M	57.59M	76.66M	88.75M	90.50M
	Net Debt
13.37M	19.89M	52.79M	61.80M	61.75M
	Total Liabilities
23.98M	66.84M	100.11M	137.65M	100.74M
	Stockholders Equity
122.83M	175.18M	222.52M	228.52M	240.12M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
137.00K	19.91M	26.87M	22.45M	37.30M
	Operating Cash Flow
2.66M	20.04M	56.38M	65.80M	48.98M
	Investing Cash Flow
11.62M	34.34M	-30.91M	-43.36M	-10.45M
	Financing Cash Flow
-44.74M	-34.88M	-27.66M	-24.18M	-19.58M

Catena Media Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price1.76

Price Trends

50DMA

1.98

Negative

100DMA

2.81

Negative

200DMA

4.16

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.10

Negative

RSI

45.02

Neutral

STOCH

67.41

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:CTM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.74, below the 50-day MA of 1.98, and below the 200-day MA of 4.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SE:CTM.

Catena Media Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BETS.B	77 Outperform	kr26.18B	12.15	22.34%	1.91%	17.47%	18.78%
EVO	75 Outperform	kr133.27B	9.65		4.68%	10.67%	14.97%
G5EN	74 Outperform	kr1.01B	10.27	16.63%	6.72%	-14.05%	-3.53%
KAMBI	73 Outperform	$3.41B	20.14	9.13%	―	-4.66%	-32.21%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$14.60B	5.88	-4.32%	3.68%	2.75%	-30.55%
OVZON	60 Neutral	kr4.71B	―	-7.19%	―	20.47%	-2.65%
CTM	38 Underperform	kr137.32M	―	-42.17%	―	-31.61%	26.26%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SE:CTM

Catena Media

1.78

-3.54

-66.58%

SE:EVO

Evolution Gaming Group AB

654.80

-407.80

-38.38%

SE:KAMBI

Kambi Group

121.40

21.80

21.89%

SE:BETS.B

Betsson AB

188.60

77.98

70.50%

SE:G5EN

G5 Entertainment AB

123.00

-2.82

-2.24%

SE:OVZON

Ovzon AB

39.20

19.34

97.38%

Catena Media Corporate Events

Catena Expands MTN Program to Support Growth

May 30, 2025

Catena has updated its Medium Term Notes (MTN) program prospectus, increasing the framework amount from SEK 5 billion to SEK 8 billion. This move, approved by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, supports Catena’s growth strategy by enabling flexible and effective funding, with Swedbank and other major banks as dealers.

Catena Expands Logistics Portfolio with Copenhagen Acquisition

May 28, 2025

Catena has acquired a logistics facility in Brøndby, Greater Copenhagen, for approximately DKK 285 million, with PostNord as the tenant. This strategic acquisition enhances Catena’s presence in a prime location for efficient city logistics, leveraging its existing relationship with PostNord, and is expected to generate a net operating surplus of DKK 16.7 million.

Catena Media’s 2025 AGM Decisions and Incentive Program

May 21, 2025

At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, Catena Media approved its financial statements for 2024, decided against declaring dividends, and elected a new board member. The meeting also approved an incentive program with share options and warrants, continuing a similar structure from the previous year, and appointed KPMG Malta as auditors.

Catena Media Implements Strategic Changes Amid Revenue Decline

May 13, 2025

Catena Media’s Q1 2025 interim report reveals a significant decline in revenue and adjusted EBITDA, attributed to challenges in their core search business and a strategic shift towards subaffiliation, which offers lower margins. In response, the company has implemented efficiency measures, including a 25% reduction in headcount and a transition to a unified tech stack, aiming to reduce costs and improve operational agility. These steps are part of a broader strategy to stabilize the business, enhance profitability, and drive revenue growth through improved operational efficiency and scalable growth platforms.

Catena Media Reports Q1 2025 Earnings and Cost Optimization Plans

May 13, 2025

Catena Media has announced its preliminary financial results for Q1 2025, revealing a slight decline in revenue and adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous quarter. In response to the reduced margins, the company is implementing cost optimization measures, including a 25% reduction in headcount and technical consolidation changes, aiming to achieve significant annual cost savings. Additionally, the board has decided to defer interest payments on its hybrid capital security to secure long-term financial stability and support future investments, despite the challenges faced.

Catena Media Announces Q1 2025 Results Presentation

May 6, 2025

Catena Media has announced the publication of its Q1 2025 interim report, scheduled for May 13, 2025, at 17:35 CEST. The shift to a later publication time aims to provide improved access for a broader set of stakeholders. Following the report’s release, the company will host a webcast and teleconference with a Q&A session led by CEO Manuel Stan and CFO Michael Gerrow, reflecting Catena Media’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.