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Catena Media plc (SE:CTM)
:CTM
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Catena Media (CTM) AI Stock Analysis

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SE:CTM

Catena Media

(CTM)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
kr3.00
â–²(86.34% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/04/26
The score is primarily driven by improving operating cash generation and stabilization in revenue, but is held back by ongoing losses and negative profitability/returns. Technicals are constructive with the stock in an uptrend, though near-overbought signals add risk of volatility. Valuation is less supportive due to negative earnings and no stated dividend yield, while the latest earnings call reinforces operational progress but highlights meaningful execution and financing risks (search headwinds, cost mix volatility, and deferred hybrid interest).
Positive Factors
Consistent positive free cash flow
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow despite accounting losses indicates durable cash conversion. This strengthens financial flexibility to fund product rollouts, reduce reliance on external financing and support working capital, improving the company's ability to execute strategy over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Ongoing negative profitability
Despite EBITDA improvement, GAAP operating losses and ~-25% net margin mean capital is not yet producing accounting profits. Negative returns (ROE ~-10%) limit internal funding capacity and raise the risk that any adverse traffic or cost shocks could undo recent progress before full profitability is sustainably achieved.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent positive free cash flow
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow despite accounting losses indicates durable cash conversion. This strengthens financial flexibility to fund product rollouts, reduce reliance on external financing and support working capital, improving the company's ability to execute strategy over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors

Catena Media (CTM) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Catena Media Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Catena Media plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides affiliation marketing services for operators of online sports betting and casino platforms in North America and Latin America. The company operates in two segments, Casino and Sports. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
Catena Media primarily makes money through affiliate marketing arrangements with iGaming operators. It publishes content and marketing pages designed to attract users via SEO, owned media, and other digital channels, then monetizes that traffic by...

Catena Media Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive year‑over‑year performance: solid revenue growth, a material improvement in adjusted EBITDA and margins, strong customer acquisition, product launches and clear cost discipline. These positives are tempered by quarter‑on‑quarter declines (compared to an exceptionally strong Q4), organic search headwinds, a concentrated North American revenue base, increased direct costs from a strategic channel mix shift, and an accumulating deferred interest obligation on hybrid capital. On balance, the improvements in profitability, cash generation and strategic progress outweigh the noted risks and short‑term headwinds.
Positive Updates
Year-over-Year Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of EUR 12.3 million, up 26% versus Q1 2025 (and +41% year‑over‑year when adjusted for foreign exchange), representing a meaningful step-up from the prior-year quarter and establishing a higher revenue baseline.
Negative Updates
Quarter-on-Quarter Revenue and EBITDA Softness
Revenue declined 21% versus Q4 2025 and adjusted EBITDA fell 43% quarter‑on‑quarter (Q4 2025 was a particularly strong comparative quarter), indicating volatility quarter-to-quarter despite strong year-over-year progress.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Negative
Year-over-Year Revenue Growth
Q1 revenue of EUR 12.3 million, up 26% versus Q1 2025 (and +41% year‑over‑year when adjusted for foreign exchange), representing a meaningful step-up from the prior-year quarter and establishing a higher revenue baseline.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call guided toward sustaining the recent baseline and pursuing measured growth: Q1 revenue was €12.3m (+26% YoY, -21% QoQ; +41% YoY FX‑adjusted) with adjusted EBITDA €2.7m (≈tripled YoY / +191%, -43% QoQ) and a 22% adjusted EBITDA margin (third consecutive quarter >20%; would be ~28% excl. €0.8m bonus accrual); management highlighted new depositing customers up 88% YoY to 34,573 (another commentary noted +58% YoY), segment mix of Casino 88% of revenue (Casino revenue +43% YoY; Casino NDCs +98% YoY, -19% QoQ) and Sports 12% (€1.5m, -34% YoY; Sports NDCs -17% YoY, +15% QoQ; Sports adjusted EBITDA margin ~30%); cost discipline metrics included total costs €9.7m (+8% YoY, -11% QoQ), direct costs +110% YoY (-22% QoQ), normalized costs ex-directs and incentives -26% YoY, personnel costs down (≈18% YoY; ~32–36% lower excl. accruals); cash/coverage: operating cash flow €4.4m (vs €3.2m LY), cash €13.7m (vs €24.6m LY), no senior debt, hybrid capital nominal €44m with ~€1.4m quarterly interest and €5.4m accrued deferred interest (likely to remain deferred), and near‑term catalysts include Alberta launch 13 July (raising regulated sports/casino population coverage to ~51%/17%) plus roll‑outs of PlayPerks and MRKTPLAYS+ with planned near‑term capital deployment.

Catena Media Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cash flow is a key strength (TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow both positive, with strong FCF growth), and revenue has stabilized into modest growth. However, the income statement remains weak with negative operating profit and a sizable net loss, and returns on equity are still negative. Balance-sheet risk appears moderate, but debt has risen versus the most recent annual period shown.
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue48.87M46.60M49.64M76.75M110.12M136.11M
Gross Profit29.50M34.20M38.65M63.31M98.74M120.62M
EBITDA-4.13M-5.64M-40.59M-11.21M49.05M-405.00K
Net Income-9.55M-11.56M-48.21M-38.24M25.62M-7.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets121.72M113.11M146.81M242.03M322.63M366.17M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments13.71M9.32M8.48M38.51M23.87M26.96M
Total Debt39.24M37.86M21.85M57.59M76.66M88.75M
Total Liabilities44.48M5.58M23.98M66.84M100.11M137.65M
Stockholders Equity77.24M107.53M122.83M175.18M222.52M228.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow8.05M6.25M137.00K19.91M26.87M22.45M
Operating Cash Flow8.79M7.51M2.66M20.04M56.38M65.80M
Investing Cash Flow3.92M19.41M11.62M34.34M-30.91M-43.36M
Financing Cash Flow-23.34M-24.90M-44.74M-34.88M-27.66M-24.18M

Catena Media Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.61
Price Trends
50DMA
2.50
Positive
100DMA
2.38
Positive
200DMA
2.14
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Negative
RSI
69.08
Neutral
STOCH
78.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:CTM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.49, below the 50-day MA of 2.50, and below the 200-day MA of 2.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:CTM.

Catena Media Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
kr11.64B6.9123.20%5.03%-1.24%-21.32%
71
Outperform
kr4.20B48.744.76%―-10.22%-33.31%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
60
Neutral
kr212.22M-1.99-19.82%―8.09%88.25%
54
Neutral
kr176.53M-6.98-74.31%―18.40%95.30%
47
Neutral
kr40.30M2.6527.44%―-48.06%―
41
Neutral
kr99.19M-2.46――36.87%23.41%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SE:CTM
Catena Media
2.99
1.16
63.29%
SE:BETS.B
Betsson AB
86.60
-99.36
-53.43%
SE:KAMBI
Kambi Group
159.20
21.30
15.45%
SE:ACROUD
Acroud AB
0.14
0.02
13.11%
SE:GCOR
Gaming Corps AB
0.68
-0.53
-43.64%
SE:FRAG
Fragbite Group AB
4.99
-4.35
-46.57%

Catena Media Corporate Events

Nordic Compound Invest Takes 10% Stake in Catena Media
Jul 2, 2026
Nordic Compound Invest A/S has disclosed that it acquired a significant stake in Catena Media, bringing its ownership to 10.0132 percent of the company’s shares and voting rights as of 30 June 2026. The move, reported under Malta’s cap...
Catena Media Wins Approval for Share Buyback Authorisation
Jun 30, 2026
Catena Media plc has received shareholder approval at an extraordinary general meeting to initiate a share buyback programme on Nasdaq Stockholm or other regulated markets. The authorisation runs for up to 18 months, until the 2027 annual general ...
Catena appoints Finnish regional manager as logistics push accelerates
Jun 16, 2026
Catena has strengthened its Nordic logistics footprint by appointing real estate specialist Henrik Eskolin as Regional Manager for its newly established Finnish market. The move underscores the company’s strategy of combining local presence ...
Catena Sells Two Logistics Properties Above Valuation to Refocus Portfolio
Jun 4, 2026
Catena has divested two logistics properties, Varla 6:15 in Kungsbacka and Glasblåsaren 14 in Linköping, with a combined lettable area of about 35,000 square metres. The assets were sold for approximately SEK 430 million, generating annu...
Catena JV Sells Final Sörred Logistics Park Property to Platzer for SEK 570m
Jun 2, 2026
Sörred Logistics Park, a 50/50 joint venture between Catena and Platzer, has agreed to sell the Gothenburg logistics property Sörred 8:15 to Platzer under a purchase option granting Platzer priority to acquire completed projects on marke...
Catena Updates MTN Base Prospectus to Support Nordic Bond Issuance
May 29, 2026
Catena has refreshed the base prospectus for its Medium Term Note program, first set up in 2021, to support continued bond issuance in the Nordic capital market. The updated document, approved and registered by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Au...
Catena Media AGM Backs New Incentive Plan and Governance Measures but Delays Share Buyback
May 27, 2026
Catena Media’s 2026 Annual General Meeting approved the 2025 consolidated financial statements but backed the board’s proposal not to pay a dividend, signalling a continued emphasis on capital retention. Shareholders confirmed a four-m...
Catena Media Calls Fresh Vote on Share Buyback Mandate at Extraordinary Meeting
May 27, 2026
Catena Media has called an extraordinary general meeting for 30 June 2026 in Malta after an earlier attempt at its annual general meeting to pass an extraordinary resolution authorising share buybacks failed to secure both of the supermajorities r...
Catena buys DHL logistics hub at Helsinki Airport to bolster Finnish portfolio
May 26, 2026
Catena has expanded its Finnish footprint by acquiring a major logistics property in Aviapolis, Vantaa, adjacent to Helsinki Airport, in a share deal valuing the asset at about SEK 719 million and financed through equity and external credit facili...
Catena boosts Nordic footprint with Helsinki Airport logistics acquisition
May 20, 2026
Catena has agreed to acquire a modern logistics property adjacent to Helsinki Airport in Aviapolis, Vantaa, for an underlying property value of about SEK 575 million. The asset, completed in 2021 and fully leased to Cramo Finland under a 10-year a...
Optimus Invest takes significant stake in Catena Media
May 18, 2026
Catena Media has disclosed that investment firm Optimus Invest Limited has acquired a significant stake in the company, holding 5.0777% of its shares and voting rights as of 19 December 2024. The notification, made public under Malta’s capit...
Catena Media Posts Strong Q1 as North American Casino and New Verticals Drive Margin Expansion
May 12, 2026
Catena Media reported a strong first quarter of 2026 as its streamlined continuing operations delivered revenue of EUR 12.3 million, up 26 percent year-on-year, with North America contributing 95 percent of the total. Adjusted EBITDA from continui...
Catena Media schedules Q1 2026 results and investor webcast
May 5, 2026
Catena Media, a Malta-based performance marketing specialist for online casino and sports betting operators, continues to leverage a wide portfolio of brands to channel players to partner platforms worldwide and support its position on the Nasdaq ...
Catena Raises SEK 3.25bn in Green Bonds to Refinance Debt and Fund Growth
Apr 28, 2026
Catena has issued SEK 3.25 billion in senior unsecured green bonds under its MTN programme, with maturities of two, three and five years and a mix of floating and fixed rates. The proceeds will be used to refinance bonds maturing in July 2026 and ...
Catena AGM Approves SEK 9.50 Dividend and Expands Capital Mandates
Apr 23, 2026
Catena’s Annual General Meeting in Helsingborg approved a dividend of SEK 9.50 per share for the 2025 financial year, to be paid in two equal instalments in April and October 2026. Shareholders adopted the 2025 accounts, granted discharge fr...
Catena lifts Q1 earnings and expands Nordic logistics portfolio
Apr 23, 2026
Catena reported a solid first quarter, with rental income up 9 percent to SEK 701 million and profit from property management rising 7 percent to SEK 424 million, while net profit climbed to SEK 464 million and EPRA NRV per share strengthened. Des...
Catena Sells Ten Swedish Logistics Properties Above Book Value to Emilshus
Apr 20, 2026
Catena has agreed to sell ten Swedish logistics properties to Emilshus for SEK 614 million as part of a strategic reshaping of its portfolio. The assets, located in Halmstad, Trelleborg, Växjö, Ängelholm, and Malmö, comprise 53...
Catena Media Sets 2026 AGM in Malta, Tightens Shareholder Participation Rules
Apr 10, 2026
Catena Media has called its 2026 annual general meeting for 27 May in St. Julian’s, Malta, setting out detailed procedures for shareholder participation in person or by proxy via the Euroclear Sweden system. The notice underscores the import...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 04, 2026