Catena Media plc (SE:CTM)
:CTM
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Catena Media
(CTM)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
kr2.50
▲(55.28% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is anchored by mixed financial performance: improving cash generation and a supportive balance sheet, but still loss-making operations. Technicals are a clear positive with strong price strength versus key moving averages and positive MACD. The latest earnings call supports the turnaround case but flags meaningful near-term volatility and regulatory/capital-structure risks, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings and no dividend data.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation (2025)
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow in 2025 indicates the business can generate internal funding for operations and growth without immediate reliance on external capital. Over 2-6 months this supports reinvestment in product, marketing and risk coping capacity despite prior volatility.
Negative Factors
Sustained negative profitability
Persistent operating and net losses, despite revenue recovery, erode retained earnings and constrain capacity to self-fund larger strategic investments. Over several quarters this limits margin resilience, raises sensitivity to cost increases, and could force financing or cost restructurings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation (2025)
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow in 2025 indicates the business can generate internal funding for operations and growth without immediate reliance on external capital. Over 2-6 months this supports reinvestment in product, marketing and risk coping capacity despite prior volatility.
Read all positive factors
Catena Media (CTM) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr181.01M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)116.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.31
Revenue Growth-25.10%
EPS Growth82.01%
CountrySE
Employees173
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.99
Shares Outstanding78,773,420
10 Day Avg. Volume192,407
30 Day Avg. Volume116,689
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.11
Price to Sales (P/S)0.25
P/FCF Ratio1.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr40.00M
Catena Media Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Catena Media plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides lead generation and related services for operators of online casino, sports betting, and financial trading platforms. It operates through three segments, Casino, Sports, and Financial Trad...
How the Company Makes Money
Catena Media primarily makes money as an affiliate/lead-generation publisher by sending users from its owned-and-operated websites to partner operators (most notably online gambling operators, and historically also financial services providers). R...
Catena Media Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a clear recovery narrative: strong top‑line growth, materially higher adjusted EBITDA and margins, positive operating cash flow and profitability, significant outperformance in the Casino segment, and evidence that diversification and SEO/tech consolidation are working. Offsetting risks include a weak Sports segment, a large decline in new depositing customers YoY, sharply higher direct costs tied to scaling performance channels, heavy revenue concentration in North America, regulatory uncertainty (sweepstakes bans) and search algorithm volatility, and a deferred hybrid interest burden (EUR 4.0m accumulated). Overall, the positives (robust revenue/EBITDA gains, cash generation, diversification traction and SEO improvements) outweigh the negatives, though the company remains exposed to near‑term operational and capital‑structure risks.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of EUR 15.6 million, up 53% year‑on‑year and 34% quarter‑on‑quarter. Adjusted for FX, YoY revenue growth was 68%.
Negative Updates
Sports Segment Underperformance
Sports revenue fell 33% YoY to EUR 1.7 million and decreased 5% QoQ. The Missouri sports betting launch produced soft results and the company cites a subpar sports product that needs further investment to turn around.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Q4 revenue of EUR 15.6 million, up 53% year‑on‑year and 34% quarter‑on‑quarter. Adjusted for FX, YoY revenue growth was 68%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed a double‑digit revenue growth target for 2026 but warned Q4’s strong acceleration (Q4 revenue EUR 15.6m; adjusted EBITDA EUR 4.7m; adjusted EBITDA margin 30%) may normalize quarter‑on‑quarter and that Q1 could see volatility from Google’s algorithm aftershocks; they remain cautious about regulatory headwinds in social sweepstakes and generative search, will keep North America as the core focus and expect the Alberta launch in H2 2026, and plan to continue directing cash to technology‑driven initiatives (including expanding PlayPerks and MRKTPLAYS+) rather than resuming hybrid interest payments—the hybrid has a nominal value of EUR 44m, interest ≈EUR 1.4m/quarter, and deferred interest totaling EUR 4.0m as of 10 Jan 2026—while personnel and other operating expenses are expected to remain roughly at current baselines.Catena Media Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 46.60M | 49.64M | 76.75M | 110.12M | 136.11M |
| Gross Profit | 34.20M | 38.65M | 63.31M | 98.74M | 120.62M |
| EBITDA | -5.64M | -40.59M | -11.21M | 49.05M | -405.00K |
| Net Income | -11.56M | -48.21M | -38.24M | 25.62M | -7.17M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 113.11M | 146.81M | 242.03M | 322.63M | 366.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.32M | 8.48M | 38.51M | 23.87M | 26.96M |
| Total Debt | 29.00K | 21.85M | 57.59M | 76.66M | 88.75M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.58M | 23.98M | 66.84M | 100.11M | 137.65M |
| Stockholders Equity | 107.53M | 122.83M | 175.18M | 222.52M | 228.52M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.25M | 137.00K | 19.91M | 26.87M | 22.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.51M | 2.66M | 20.04M | 56.38M | 65.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 19.41M | 11.62M | 34.34M | -30.91M | -43.36M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -24.90M | -44.74M | -34.88M | -27.66M | -24.18M |
Catena Media Technical Analysis
Positive
1.61
Price Trends
2.17
Positive
1.95
Positive
1.99
Positive
Market Momentum
0.01
Negative
56.45
Neutral
80.79
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:CTM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.22, below the 50-day MA of 2.17, and below the 200-day MA of 1.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.79 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:CTM.
Catena Media Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | kr12.58B | 10.54 | 23.20% | 5.03% | 11.84% | 12.09% | |
62 Neutral | kr181.01M | -0.99 | -19.82% | ― | -25.10% | 82.01% | |
61 Neutral | kr3.41B | 52.58 | 4.76% | ― | -5.16% | -48.79% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
48 Neutral | kr59.77M | 5.93 | 27.44% | ― | -10.21% | -1.15% | |
43 Neutral | kr144.28M | -3.85 | ― | ― | 32.83% | 13.34% | |
39 Underperform | kr168.86M | -3.44 | -74.31% | ― | 13.37% | 43.23% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
SE:CTM
Catena Media
2.32
0.17
7.66%
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Catena Media Corporate Events
Catena Media Highlights Strategy and Governance in 2025 Annual Report
Mar 24, 2026
Catena Media, a Malta-based affiliate marketing specialist for online casino and sports betting operators, focuses on delivering high-value leads in North America and other selected markets. Its branded platforms aim to enhance user experience and...
Catena AB Issues Integrated 2025 Annual and Sustainability Report Highlighting Stable Year and ESG Focus
Mar 24, 2026
Catena AB has published its integrated Annual Report and Sustainability Report for 2025, combining financial statements, governance disclosures and detailed sustainability data in a single document. The report, prepared under IFRS and GRI Standard...
Catena convenes 2026 AGM with broad voting options for shareholders
Mar 23, 2026
Catena has called its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 23 April in Helsingborg, inviting shareholders registered with Euroclear Sweden by 15 April to attend or vote. The company is offering flexible participation options, including physical presenc...
Catena updates MTN prospectus following Finnish logistics acquisition move
Mar 13, 2026
Catena has issued a supplementary prospectus to its existing medium-term note program, originally published in May 2025, after agreeing to acquire a portfolio of logistics properties that will mark its establishment in the Finnish market. The upda...
Catena expands Jönköping logistics portfolio with SEK 189m terminal acquisition
Mar 10, 2026
Catena has strengthened its logistics footprint in the Jönköping region with the acquisition of the Äringen 2 terminal in the Ljungarum industrial area, a deal valued at SEK 189 million including committed investments. The 59,000-sq...
Catena’s Nomination Committee Proposes Largely Unchanged Board With One New Director
Mar 6, 2026
Catena’s Nomination Committee has presented its proposals ahead of the 23 April 2026 Annual General Meeting, recommending that the Board comprise six members, with five current directors, including chair Lennart Mauritzson, standing for re-e...
Catena strengthens management with new Head of Technology and Sustainability
Mar 2, 2026
Catena has strengthened its executive leadership by appointing Johan Jaxell as Head of Technology and Sustainability and adding him to the company’s management team. Jaxell, who joined Catena in 2024 and previously held senior roles at Heims...
Fitch affirms Catena’s BBB rating after SEK 8.8bn Nordic logistics acquisition
Feb 20, 2026
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Catena’s long-term credit rating at BBB with a stable outlook, underscoring the rating agency’s confidence in the company’s financial profile and risk management. The decision comes in the wake of Caten...
Catena boosts earnings and dividend as major Nordic logistics deal secures Finland entry
Feb 20, 2026
Catena reported a solid 2025, underscoring its strong position in the Nordic logistics property market with rental income up 21 percent to SEK 2,651 million and net operating surplus up 23 percent. Profit from property management climbed 28 percen...
Catena buys SEK 8.8bn Nordic logistics portfolio, enters Finnish market
Feb 19, 2026
Catena has agreed to acquire a 20-asset logistics property portfolio from Urban Partners for about SEK 8.8 billion, expanding its presence across Sweden, Denmark and, for the first time, Finland. The deal, financed through internal funds and exter...
Catena Media’s Casino-Led Pivot Delivers Best Quarter Since Restructuring
Feb 10, 2026
Catena Media reported its strongest quarter since its mid-2024 restructuring, with Q4 revenue from continuing operations jumping 53 percent to EUR 15.6 million and adjusted EBITDA more than tripling, driven by a sharp rebound in North America and ...
Catena Media Sets Date for Q4 2025 Results and Investor Call
Feb 6, 2026
Catena Media, a Malta-based lead-generation specialist for the online casino and sports betting sector, will publish its interim report for the fourth quarter of 2025 on 10 February at 17:35 CET. The company will follow the release with a combined...
Catena’s Head of Sustainability to Depart in Spring 2026
Feb 5, 2026
Catena has announced that its Head of Sustainability, Amanda Thynell, will leave the company during the spring of 2026 to pursue new opportunities in sustainable community development. Thynell, who has held the role since 2022, has led the develop...
Catena boosts share capital with new share issue to fund continued growth
Jan 30, 2026
Catena has expanded its share capital following a previously announced private placement approved under an authorization from shareholders, increasing the total number of shares and votes by 6,036,010 during January 2026. As a result, the company&...
Catena Raises SEK 2.8bn in Directed Share Issue to Fund Nordic Logistics Expansion
Jan 20, 2026
Catena has carried out a directed share issue of 6,036,010 new shares, raising approximately SEK 2.75 billion before transaction costs at a 3–4 percent discount to recent trading levels, with strong participation from both Swedish and intern...
Catena Targets SEK 9bn Nordic Logistics Deal With Directed Share Issue
Jan 20, 2026
Catena plans a directed share issue of up to approximately 6 million new shares to Swedish and international institutional investors to help finance a contemplated SEK 9 billion acquisition of 20 logistics properties in Sweden, Finland and Denmark...
Catena Media Expands North American iGaming Footprint With MRKTPLAYS+ Launch
Jan 16, 2026
Catena Media has launched MRKTPLAYS+, an enhanced version of its MRKTPLAYS subaffiliation platform, to deepen strategic partnerships and accelerate growth for publishers and digital businesses in the regulated North American online casino and spor...
Nordic Compound Investment Takes 5% Stake in Catena Media
Jan 13, 2026
Catena Media has disclosed that Nordic Compound Investment A/S has acquired a significant stake in the company, now holding 5.0% of its shares and voting rights as of 9 January 2026. The crossing of this ownership threshold, reported under Malta&#...
Catena Media Board Member Stephen Taylor-Matthews to Step Down in January 2026
Jan 9, 2026
Catena Media announced that non-executive board member Stephen Taylor-Matthews will step down from the board of directors effective 31 January 2026, leaving the board with four non-executive directors until the next annual general meeting. Taylor-...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.