Alcadon Group AB (ALCA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr801.51M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.35K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.15
• Revenue Growth: -7.91%
• EPS Growth: -33.91%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 184
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Communication Equipment
• EPS (TTM): -1.48
• Shares Outstanding: 24,511,026
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,915
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,352
• PEG Ratio: 0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.82
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr1.42B

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: kr32.00 ▲(32.23% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—strong cash generation and controlled leverage offset by weakening revenue trends and a 2025 net loss. Technicals are supportive due to a strong uptrend, but overbought indicators temper the outlook. Valuation is a headwind because earnings are currently negative and there is no provided dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow through 2023–2025 provides durable financial flexibility. Strong FCF supports reinvestment in logistics and services, funds deleveraging or working capital, and cushions margins during cyclical demand swings, underpinning long-term stability.

Improving leverage and equity base

Marked decline in leverage and a solid equity base reduce financial risk and increase capacity to fund projects or weather downturns. Manageable, stable absolute debt levels plus improving ratios enhance credit flexibility and long-term ability to pursue value-added services growth.

Value‑added reseller model and market exposure

A distributor model combined with technical, configuration and logistics services creates customer stickiness and differentiated margins versus pure pass-through sales. Exposure to network upgrades and fiber deployments aligns the company with structural demand for connectivity over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Revenue momentum weakening

Recent revenue declines signal weakening demand or market share loss in core Nordic infrastructure markets. Falling top-line reduces operating leverage and constrains the upside from fixed-cost absorption, making long-term margin recovery and investment funding more difficult.

Net loss in 2025

A 2025 net loss, even with positive operating profit, points to non-operating pressures (interest, D&A, or one-offs) that impair earnings quality. Sustained losses would erode equity, limit reinvestment capacity, and could force trade-offs between growth and balance-sheet repair.

Margin compression and low returns

Declining gross margins and modest ROE indicate structural pressure on profitability from pricing, mix, or cost inflation. Persisting margin erosion reduces cash flow resilience, limits ability to expand value‑added services profitably, and weakens the return on invested capital over time.

Alcadon Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alcadon Group AB (publ) engages in the supply of data and telecommunications solutions in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Germany. The company offers range of fiber and copper based solutions, as well as passive and active products; structured cabling systems for offices, industry, public municipality, and hospital buildings; multi-fiber push on systems and data center solutions; and active communications equipment, such as switches, routers, and wireless solutions. It also provides fiber networks/FTTx solutions, including fiber network solutions comprising FTTH/B/P and 5G solutions, and fiber solutions for energy companies, city networks, service providers, and other stakeholders; and new production and repairs, conversion, and extension works for residential networks, as well as solutions for residential communication and electricity. In addition, the company offers training, network design, troubleshooting, fiber welds, and rental services, as well as measuring instrument copper/fiber and fiber blowing equipment. It serves installers, operators, construction companies, integrators, municipalities, and data centers. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Alcadon primarily makes money by selling network infrastructure products and solutions to professional customers (e.g., installers, integrators, telecom/IT operators, and enterprises) at a margin above its purchase cost from manufacturers and suppliers. Key revenue streams typically include (1) product distribution revenue from pass-through sales of connectivity and network infrastructure components (e.g., cabling, fiber-related products, and other passive network materials), where gross profit is driven by supplier pricing, customer pricing, volume, and product mix; and (2) value-added services that support those product sales, such as configuration/packaging, project/logistics handling, technical guidance, and other services tied to delivery and deployment, which can provide additional margin and help differentiate the offering. The company’s earnings are influenced by demand for network build-outs and upgrades (including fiber deployments and data network expansion), its ability to maintain strong supplier relationships and an efficient distribution/logistics setup, and its sales execution across its operating markets. Specific information on significant partnerships, customer concentration, or the exact revenue split by stream is null.

Alcadon Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: strong recent operating/free cash flow and manageable, improving leverage are positives, but revenue momentum has weakened and 2025 swung to a net loss with margin compression, reducing earnings quality.

Income Statement

Revenue scaled strongly from 2021–2024, but momentum weakened recently with 2025 revenue down ~5.4% year over year. Profitability has compressed over time: gross margin fell from ~28.7% (2020) to ~25.3% (2024), and 2025 turned to a net loss (net income -11.1m) despite positive EBIT/EBITDA, indicating higher non-operating costs, depreciation/amortization, interest, or one-offs. Overall, the business shows prior growth but current earnings quality and trajectory are weaker.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and improving versus peak levels: debt-to-equity declined from ~0.95 (2022) to ~0.49 (2024), supported by a solid equity base (2025 equity ~767m). Total debt has been relatively stable (~408m–421m in 2024–2025). The main concern is profitability pressure: return on equity was modest in 2023–2024 (~5.7% to ~4.3%) and 2025 net losses reduce balance-sheet resilience if sustained.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key strength. Operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive and robust in 2023–2025 (2025 operating cash flow ~102.8m; free cash flow ~101.1m), with 2025 free cash flow up ~2.7%. Cash conversion was strong in 2023–2024, with free cash flow roughly matching net income in those years. Weaknesses include volatility earlier in the period (notably low operating cash flow in 2021–2022) and a 2024 free cash flow decline (~-8.5%) before the 2025 rebound.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.43B	1.60B	1.57B	1.11B	736.47M
Gross Profit	72.40M	405.80M	384.23M	283.60M	207.27M
EBITDA	116.30M	130.10M	127.50M	83.66M	77.02M
Net Income	-11.10M	36.90M	37.86M	37.07M	47.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.51B	1.70B	1.58B	1.66B	722.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	66.00M	57.90M	62.52M	101.26M	28.37M
Total Debt	408.00M	420.50M	412.15M	548.36M	180.17M
Total Liabilities	744.30M	844.90M	911.48M	1.09B	382.09M
Stockholders Equity	767.30M	856.20M	669.46M	575.14M	340.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	101.10M	119.30M	130.40M	12.30M	12.93M
Operating Cash Flow	102.80M	125.00M	136.65M	24.08M	18.42M
Investing Cash Flow	-40.60M	-178.30M	-50.52M	-259.02M	-49.54M
Financing Cash Flow	-54.00M	45.30M	-125.00M	306.43M	53.87M

Alcadon Group AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ALCA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.12, below the 50-day MA of 25.94, and above the 200-day MA of 23.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.46 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:ALCA.

Alcadon Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
WAYS	60 Neutral	kr367.04M	32.02	―	―	10.55%	―
ALCA	57 Neutral	kr801.51M	-55.21	―	―	-7.91%	-33.91%
KEBNI.B	50 Neutral	kr361.18M	-22.37	8.68%	―	9.30%	―
MAVEN	47 Neutral	kr271.99M	-18.80	-5.81%	―	-9.79%	-144.24%
INCOAX	44 Neutral	kr65.50M	-2.29	-24.59%	―	-48.24%	-48.99%
GAPW.B	43 Neutral	kr396.80M	-8.02	-52.89%	―	53.78%	19.38%