Alcadon Group AB (ALCA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr688.76M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.35K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.06
• Revenue Growth: -7.91%
• EPS Growth: -33.91%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 184
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Communication Equipment
• EPS (TTM): -1.48
• Shares Outstanding: 24,511,026
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,915
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,352
• PEG Ratio: 0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.80
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.43
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.06
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.82
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr1.42B

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: kr29.00 ▲(19.83% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/20/26

The score is primarily driven by solid recent cash flow and manageable leverage, which offset weakening revenue momentum and a 2025 net loss. Technical indicators are broadly neutral with a slightly negative MACD, and valuation appears moderate (P/E ~18) without dividend yield support.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow

Consistently positive and growing free cash flow through 2023–2025 gives the company durable internal funding for working capital, capex, and deleveraging. This cash generation provides a multi-quarter buffer versus cyclical revenue swings and supports strategic investments without external financing.

Improving leverage and balance-sheet cushion

Material reduction in leverage improves financial flexibility and lowers refinancing risk. A sizable equity base around 767m plus stable total debt gives room to absorb shocks, sustain operations during downturns, and maintain supplier and creditor confidence over the next several quarters.

Stable reseller/value-added business model

A distributor model with value-added services (configuration, logistics, technical support) creates recurring service revenue, customer stickiness, and higher-margin bolt-ons. Combined with structural demand from network upgrades and fiber rollouts, this model supports steady mid-term revenue and margin resilience.

Negative Factors

Weakening revenue momentum

A multi-year slowdown culminating in a ~5.4% revenue decline in 2025 indicates reduced end-market demand or competitive pressure. Persisting top-line contraction would limit operating leverage, constrain reinvestment capacity, and make it harder to restore prior growth rates over several quarters.

Profitability deterioration and margin compression

Steady gross margin erosion and a 2025 net loss despite positive operating profits point to rising non-operating costs or one-offs that impair earnings quality. If sustained, compressed margins and recurring non-operating losses can erode equity and reduce the company's ability to invest in growth or pay suppliers competitively.

Modest returns and resilience risk if losses persist

Low historical ROE and a swing to net losses weaken capital efficiency and raise questions about long-term capital allocation. Continued low returns would limit the firm's ability to fund expansion internally and could necessitate external financing, increasing leverage risk despite recent improvements.

Alcadon Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alcadon Group AB (publ) engages in the supply of data and telecommunications solutions in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Germany. The company offers range of fiber and copper based solutions, as well as passive and active products; structured cabling systems for offices, industry, public municipality, and hospital buildings; multi-fiber push on systems and data center solutions; and active communications equipment, such as switches, routers, and wireless solutions. It also provides fiber networks/FTTx solutions, including fiber network solutions comprising FTTH/B/P and 5G solutions, and fiber solutions for energy companies, city networks, service providers, and other stakeholders; and new production and repairs, conversion, and extension works for residential networks, as well as solutions for residential communication and electricity. In addition, the company offers training, network design, troubleshooting, fiber welds, and rental services, as well as measuring instrument copper/fiber and fiber blowing equipment. It serves installers, operators, construction companies, integrators, municipalities, and data centers. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Alcadon Group AB generates revenue primarily through the sale of its telecommunications and fiber optic products. The company has established key revenue streams from its diverse product portfolio which includes passive optical components, structured cabling systems, and custom solutions tailored for specific customer needs. Alcadon also benefits from long-term partnerships with network operators and service providers, which contribute to recurring sales and project-based revenues. Additionally, the company leverages its expertise in the telecommunications sector to provide consultancy services, further enhancing its revenue potential. Seasonal trends in the telecommunications industry, along with advancements in technology, also play a significant role in shaping Alcadon’s earnings.

Alcadon Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: strong and improving recent free cash flow generation supports stability, and leverage has moderated (debt-to-equity down to ~0.49 in 2024). Offsetting this, revenue momentum weakened (2025 down ~5.4% YoY) and profitability deteriorated, with margins compressing and a swing to net loss in 2025.

Income Statement

Revenue scaled strongly from 2021–2024, but momentum weakened recently with 2025 revenue down ~5.4% year over year. Profitability has compressed over time: gross margin fell from ~28.7% (2020) to ~25.3% (2024), and 2025 turned to a net loss (net income -11.1m) despite positive EBIT/EBITDA, indicating higher non-operating costs, depreciation/amortization, interest, or one-offs. Overall, the business shows prior growth but current earnings quality and trajectory are weaker.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and improving versus peak levels: debt-to-equity declined from ~0.95 (2022) to ~0.49 (2024), supported by a solid equity base (2025 equity ~767m). Total debt has been relatively stable (~408m–421m in 2024–2025). The main concern is profitability pressure: return on equity was modest in 2023–2024 (~5.7% to ~4.3%) and 2025 net losses reduce balance-sheet resilience if sustained.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key strength. Operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive and robust in 2023–2025 (2025 operating cash flow ~102.8m; free cash flow ~101.1m), with 2025 free cash flow up ~2.7%. Cash conversion was strong in 2023–2024, with free cash flow roughly matching net income in those years. Weaknesses include volatility earlier in the period (notably low operating cash flow in 2021–2022) and a 2024 free cash flow decline (~-8.5%) before the 2025 rebound.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.43B	1.60B	1.57B	1.11B	736.47M
Gross Profit	72.40M	405.80M	384.23M	283.60M	207.27M
EBITDA	116.30M	130.10M	127.50M	83.66M	77.02M
Net Income	-11.10M	36.90M	37.86M	37.07M	47.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.51B	1.70B	1.58B	1.66B	722.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	66.00M	57.90M	62.52M	101.26M	28.37M
Total Debt	408.00M	420.50M	412.15M	548.36M	180.17M
Total Liabilities	744.30M	844.90M	911.48M	1.09B	382.09M
Stockholders Equity	767.30M	856.20M	669.46M	575.14M	340.47M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	101.10M	119.30M	130.40M	12.30M	12.93M
Operating Cash Flow	102.80M	125.00M	136.65M	24.08M	18.42M
Investing Cash Flow	-40.60M	-178.30M	-50.52M	-259.02M	-49.54M
Financing Cash Flow	-54.00M	45.30M	-125.00M	306.43M	53.87M

Alcadon Group AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 24.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:ALCA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.84, above the 50-day MA of 23.99, and above the 200-day MA of 22.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.75 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:ALCA.

Alcadon Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
WAYS	60 Neutral	kr313.11M	30.42	―	―	10.55%	―
ALCA	57 Neutral	kr688.76M	-61.49	―	―	-7.91%	-33.91%
KEBNI.B	50 Neutral	kr400.58M	-2,091.43	8.68%	―	9.30%	―
MAVEN	44 Neutral	kr211.08M	-14.26	-5.81%	―	-9.79%	-144.24%
INCOAX	44 Neutral	kr65.63M	-1.99	-24.59%	―	-48.24%	-48.99%
GAPW.B	43 Neutral	kr457.85M	-6.89	-52.89%	―	53.78%	19.38%