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AAC Clyde Space (SE:AAC)
:AAC
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AAC Clyde Space
(AAC)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
kr128.00
▲(24.03% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/19/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile fundamentals (ongoing losses, 2025 revenue contraction, and a sharp deterioration in cash flow) despite a relatively strong balance sheet. Technicals are moderately supportive with price above major moving averages, and the earnings call suggests potential 2026 improvement driven by launches and Data & Services growth, but near-term execution and guidance uncertainty remain key risks.
Positive Factors
High Data & Services growth
Sustained, large-scale growth in Data & Services indicates a structural shift toward higher-margin, recurring revenue streams. Over the next 2-6 months this supports margin resilience as data operations scale, underpins cross‑sell of mission services, and reduces reliance on single-project hardware deliveries.
Relatively resilient balance sheet
Low financial leverage and a substantial equity base provide durable financial flexibility to fund launches, invest in data infrastructure, and absorb execution slippages. This structural strength reduces immediate refinancing risk and supports multi‑period investment in constellation and services buildout.
Substantial near-term launch pipeline
A concentrated launch cadence creates a tangible, near-term revenue and operational backlog that should lift Data & Services monetization once satellites are commissioned. Over months this materially increases serviceable assets, data volume, and recurring revenue potential from operations and ground services.
Negative Factors
Highly volatile cash generation
Large swings in operating and free cash flow signal structural variability in program timing and collections, increasing funding and execution risk. Over the next 2-6 months this volatility can constrain reinvestment, force careful working capital management, and raise reliance on external financing during launch and commissioning phases.
Persistent losses and margin instability
Ongoing losses and recent revenue decline reflect structural challenges in converting growth to stable profitability. Over months this undermines return generation, risks eroding equity cushions if losses persist, and limits the company's ability to self-fund expansion without delivering consistent margin improvement.
Execution & revenue timing risk from project delays
Repeated program delays and revenue deferrals reveal structural execution risks tied to large contracts and third‑party dependencies. Over the next several months this reduces revenue visibility, depresses order intake momentum, and can create stop‑start cash flows as major program starts are rescheduled or renegotiated.
AAC Clyde Space (AAC) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr824.55M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)24.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth30.82%
EPS Growth57.74%
CountrySE
Employees210
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.00
Shares Outstanding7,132,744
10 Day Avg. Volume18,270
30 Day Avg. Volume24,349
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.90
Price to Sales (P/S)2.18
P/FCF Ratio-5.57
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr363.55M
AAC Clyde Space Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAAC Clyde Space AB (publ) primarily provides solutions and services to the small satellite market in Sweden, the United Kingdom, other European countries, the United States, Asia, and internationally. The company offers command and data handling, batteries, electrical power systems, laser and radio communications systems, solar arrays, lightweight structure solutions, and propulsion systems, as well as payloads, plug-and-play satellite attitude determination and control systems. It also involved in the provision of space as a service, which includes data subscription, data delivery, customer portal access, insurance, and data protection. In addition, the company operates EPIC spacecraft platform. It serves the government, commercial, and educational organizations. The company was formerly known as ÅAC Microtec AB (publ) and changed its name to AAC Clyde Space AB (publ) in November 2019. AAC Clyde Space AB (publ) was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Uppsala, Sweden.
How the Company Makes MoneyAAC primarily makes money through a mix of (1) hardware product sales, (2) engineering and mission services, and (3) data/service contracts. Hardware revenue comes from selling satellite subsystems and platforms used in small satellites (e.g., onboard components and satellite buses), typically contracted per customer program and recognized as equipment deliveries. Services revenue comes from providing mission-related engineering work—such as system design, integration, environmental testing, launch preparation, and operations support—sold as project-based contracts or work packages tied to customer missions. In addition, AAC generates revenue from delivering space-derived data and/or operating-capability services under contracts where customers pay for access to data products or mission outcomes rather than physical hardware. Significant earnings drivers include winning institutional/government and commercial contracts for mission deliveries, the company’s ability to bundle hardware with integration and operations (increasing contract value per mission), and longer-running service/data agreements that can add recurring or repeat business elements. Specific, named partnerships or their quantified contribution to earnings: null.
AAC Clyde Space Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Mixed results for 2025: operational resilience (positive EBITDA) and strong Data & Services growth (+78.5% YoY), plus new long-term investor support and a substantial upcoming launch program (15 satellites) underpin optimism for 2026. Offsetting this are meaningful short-term setbacks: net sales below reforecast, a missed operational cash-flow objective, multiple project delays (notably EPS-Sterna and another supplier/customer dispute), and lower order intake during 2025. Management expects many of the adverse items to resolve in 2026 and is investing to capture future data-driven revenue, but guidance is deferred until the Sterna situation is finalized.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Data & Services Growth
Data & Services net sales grew ~78.5% year-on-year, representing a high-EBITDA, fast-growing part of the business and driving strategic expansion.
Delivered Positive EBITDA
Company achieved a positive EBITDA for 2025 despite revenues being below expectations, demonstrating cost adaptability and margin control.
New Long-Term Investor (Bonnier Capital)
Bonnier Capital joined as an important long-term investor, providing capital and market endorsement for the company’s strategy and future developments.
Upcoming Satellite Launch Wave (15 Satellites)
Management expects launches of 15 AAC Clyde Space-built satellites in the next ~6 months (mix of company-owned and customer satellites). VIREON 1 & 2 shipped to launch site with nominal end-of-March launch window; Sedna 3 & 4 under construction for upcoming launches.
VIREON Commissioning Timeline to Revenue
After launch, VIREON satellites expect ~3 months commissioning before entering revenue-generating operations, providing a clear near-term path to increase Data & Services revenue.
EPS-Sterna Project Restarted (Green Light)
EUMETSAT received go-ahead on 12 January and signed agreement with ESA on 27 January to start procurement; company is in final negotiations and expects to begin work soon — a major backlog/cash-flow driver when it starts.
INFLECION Phase 2 Progress
Phase 1 nearing close and discussions with ESA on Phase 2 are progressing, important for a constellation targeted in late 2027/2028 and for expanding maritime services.
Strategic Investments to Support Growth
Company is expanding sales and data-management teams and investing in data processing/distribution infrastructure to prepare for new satellites and future revenue growth.
Negative Updates
Net Sales Below Expectations
2025 net sales came in below internal expectations and reforecasts; management attributes the shortfall primarily to two programs: one delayed in start (EPS-Sterna) and another delayed due to an external supplier/customer technical disagreement, with affected revenue moved into 2026.
Negative Operational Cash Flow
The company failed to meet its objective of positive operational cash flow for 2025, largely due to the delayed start of a very large project which pushed cash receipts into 2026, despite achieving positive EBITDA.
Project Delays and Revenue Recognition Issues
EPS-Sterna experienced delays (recently green-lit but start pushed), another large program faced supplier/customer technical disagreements blocking work and revenue recognition, and SKAO work has some delays. Management noted SEK 32 million of SKAO revenue shifting from 2025 to 2026 and Q4 net sales came in SEK 22 million lower than November estimates.
Lower Order Intake in 2025
Order intake was generally lower in 2025. Management says focus on securing the large EPS-Sterna opportunity reduced activity to pursue other orders and contributed to a reduced backlog during the delay period.
Temporary EBITDA Margin Pressure in Data Segment
Although Data & Services grew strongly, EBITDA margins in the segment declined due to deliberate investments (hiring sales and data-management staff and preparing for increased data flows), causing near-term margin compression until new satellites are operational.
Guidance and Timing Uncertainty
Company will not issue full-year guidance until EPS-Sterna timing and impacts are settled. Launch dates (e.g., SpaceX) and program schedules remain subject to change, creating short-term visibility uncertainty; external analysts' revenue timing estimates (e.g., for Sterna) were described as pessimistic by management.
Company Guidance
Management signaled a cautiously positive outlook for 2026 but will only give full‑year guidance once EPS‑Sterna is finalized (EUMETSAT greenlight 12 Jan; ESA contract signed 27 Jan and work expected to start soon), noting 2025 delivered positive EBITDA but negative operational cash flow and net sales below reforecast; key metrics cited include Data & Services growth of ~78.5% YoY (a high‑EBITDA segment whose margins will temporarily fall due to investment), VIREON 1–2 shipped for an end‑March launch with ~3 months commissioning to revenue, Sedna 3–4 slated for early next year, about 15 AAC‑built satellites due to launch in the next six months, INFLECION Phase 2 aiming for a late‑2027/‑2028 constellation, and specific timing/recognition impacts such as SEK 32m shifted from 2025 to 2026 and a Q4 net sales shortfall of SEK 22m versus November estimates.AAC Clyde Space Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial profile is uneven: the balance sheet is relatively resilient with low leverage (Balance Sheet Score 72), but operating performance is weak and volatile with recurring losses, a sharp 2025 revenue contraction, and a major swing to negative free cash flow in 2025 after a strong 2024 (Income Statement Score 26; Cash Flow Score 34).Income Statement
Revenue growth has been volatile—strong expansion in 2021–2024, followed by a sharp contraction in 2025 (down ~19.5% YoY). Profitability remains weak: the company is consistently loss-making, and 2025 deteriorated materially with negative gross profit and a much larger net loss (about -46.1M). While 2024 showed comparatively better operating performance (positive gross profit and positive EBITDA), the reversal in 2025 highlights execution and margin stability risk.26
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks relatively resilient with a large equity base versus debt (debt-to-equity was very low in prior years, ~2%–6%), suggesting modest financial leverage. Total assets are substantial and equity has been broadly stable. The key weakness is returns: profitability is negative, so equity is not currently generating positive earnings, and continued losses could erode the cushion over time.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is inconsistent. 2024 was a notable positive year (operating cash flow ~56.8M and free cash flow ~34.6M), but 2025 swung sharply negative (operating cash flow about -72.6M and free cash flow about -115.4M). This volatility increases funding risk and reduces financial flexibility, even though the company has previously demonstrated an ability to generate cash in stronger periods.34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 295.28M | 352.86M | 276.61M | 196.72M | 179.95M |
| Gross Profit | -60.47M | 247.46M | -43.00M | 135.69M | 110.35M |
| EBITDA | -3.02M | 29.45M | -1.01M | -29.61M | -18.13M |
| Net Income | -46.09M | -5.58M | -41.36M | -46.55M | -39.49M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 895.53M | 988.61M | 938.37M | 881.40M | 874.41M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 30.12M | 49.68M | 59.55M | 52.10M | 96.11M |
| Total Debt | 37.23M | 21.04M | 40.80M | 17.21M | 15.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 184.77M | 285.62M | 275.62M | 217.90M | 195.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | 712.19M | 704.02M | 663.57M | 663.51M | 678.81M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -115.42M | 34.63M | -46.09M | -34.44M | -64.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -72.60M | 56.79M | 4.88M | 6.43M | -35.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -39.09M | -44.64M | -50.97M | -40.87M | -21.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 93.63M | -23.00M | 53.91M | -10.27M | 89.64M |
AAC Clyde Space Technical Analysis
Positive
103.20
Price Trends
116.20
Negative
102.37
Positive
108.21
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.10
Negative
55.63
Neutral
52.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:AAC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 103.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.23, below the 50-day MA of 116.20, and below the 200-day MA of 108.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:AAC.
AAC Clyde Space Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | kr393.10M | 30.50 | 33.71% | 1.22% | 34.25% | 57.77% | |
64 Neutral | kr1.66B | 111.42 | ― | 2.75% | -3.14% | -35.70% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | kr824.55M | -13.95 | -6.70% | ― | 30.82% | 57.74% | |
53 Neutral | kr5.96B | 37.97 | 10.29% | 0.41% | 47.87% | -439.87% | |
52 Neutral | kr104.17M | -195.09 | 1.33% | ― | 2.20% | 50.91% | |
48 Neutral | kr2.64B | -94.90 | ― | ― | 9.60% | 40.86% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.