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AAC Clyde Space (SE:AAC)
:AAC
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AAC Clyde Space
(AAC)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
kr102.00
▼(-1.16% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is held down primarily by weak and volatile financial performance (losses and a sharp 2025 cash-flow reversal) and bearish technical signals. The earnings call adds some support via improving strategic momentum (fast-growing Data & Services, positive EBITDA, upcoming launches), but uncertainty around project timing and deferred guidance limits the uplift.
Positive Factors
Data & Services Growth
Strong, high-EBITDA Data & Services growth represents a structural shift from one-off hardware sales toward recurring, service-driven revenue. As the company scales satellite operations and data distribution, this segment can provide more predictable margins and higher lifetime customer value over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Positive EBITDA in 2025
Delivering positive EBITDA amid revenue headwinds indicates underlying cost discipline and operating leverage. This demonstrates management's ability to manage fixed costs and positions the company to convert incremental revenue from upcoming launches into operating profits as delayed programs restart, supporting medium-term earnings resilience.
Low Financial Leverage
A low debt burden and a substantial equity base give the company financing flexibility to absorb project timing risk and invest in data infrastructure. This balance-sheet cushion reduces near-term refinancing risk and supports continued capital deployment into launches and constellation build-out over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Volatility
A sharp swing from strong cash generation in 2024 to very negative 2025 cash flows highlights unpredictable cash conversion from projects. Persistent volatility raises funding and execution risk, increasing reliance on external capital or equity and constraining investments in operations and data infrastructure over the next 2–6 months.
Project Delays & Revenue Recognition
Large program delays and shifted recognition materially defer revenue and cash receipts. These timing shifts disrupt backlog conversion and complicate forecasting, reducing near-term revenue visibility and delaying the expected monetization of satellite investments until projects actually commence and revenue can be recognized.
Lower Order Intake & Deferred Guidance
Declining order intake and the decision to withhold full-year guidance reflect weaker demand visibility and execution uncertainty. This limits planning for capacity, cash flow and investor expectations, increasing the risk that revenue ramps from planned launches and services will be slower or more variable than management currently anticipates.
AAC Clyde Space (AAC) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr718.98M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)24.35K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth30.82%
EPS Growth57.74%
CountrySE
Employees210
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.00
Shares Outstanding7,132,744
10 Day Avg. Volume18,270
30 Day Avg. Volume24,349
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.90
Price to Sales (P/S)2.18
P/FCF Ratio-5.57
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.42
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr364.05M
AAC Clyde Space Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAAC Clyde Space AB (publ) primarily provides solutions and services to the small satellite market in Sweden, the United Kingdom, other European countries, the United States, Asia, and internationally. The company offers command and data handling, batteries, electrical power systems, laser and radio communications systems, solar arrays, lightweight structure solutions, and propulsion systems, as well as payloads, plug-and-play satellite attitude determination and control systems. It also involved in the provision of space as a service, which includes data subscription, data delivery, customer portal access, insurance, and data protection. In addition, the company operates EPIC spacecraft platform. It serves the government, commercial, and educational organizations. The company was formerly known as ÅAC Microtec AB (publ) and changed its name to AAC Clyde Space AB (publ) in November 2019. AAC Clyde Space AB (publ) was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Uppsala, Sweden.
How the Company Makes MoneyAAC Clyde Space generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling small satellite solutions and services to clients in both the public and private sectors. This includes revenue from the design and manufacturing of satellite systems, as well as operational services such as satellite data processing and analysis. The company also engages in contracts with governmental and commercial entities for satellite launches and deployments. Significant partnerships with aerospace organizations and research institutions further enhance AAC's market reach, allowing it to participate in larger projects and collaborations that contribute to its earnings. Additionally, AAC benefits from the growing demand for satellite data and services across various industries, which provides a robust foundation for its revenue model.
AAC Clyde Space Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Mixed results for 2025: operational resilience (positive EBITDA) and strong Data & Services growth (+78.5% YoY), plus new long-term investor support and a substantial upcoming launch program (15 satellites) underpin optimism for 2026. Offsetting this are meaningful short-term setbacks: net sales below reforecast, a missed operational cash-flow objective, multiple project delays (notably EPS-Sterna and another supplier/customer dispute), and lower order intake during 2025. Management expects many of the adverse items to resolve in 2026 and is investing to capture future data-driven revenue, but guidance is deferred until the Sterna situation is finalized.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Data & Services Growth
Data & Services net sales grew ~78.5% year-on-year, representing a high-EBITDA, fast-growing part of the business and driving strategic expansion.
Delivered Positive EBITDA
Company achieved a positive EBITDA for 2025 despite revenues being below expectations, demonstrating cost adaptability and margin control.
New Long-Term Investor (Bonnier Capital)
Bonnier Capital joined as an important long-term investor, providing capital and market endorsement for the company’s strategy and future developments.
Upcoming Satellite Launch Wave (15 Satellites)
Management expects launches of 15 AAC Clyde Space-built satellites in the next ~6 months (mix of company-owned and customer satellites). VIREON 1 & 2 shipped to launch site with nominal end-of-March launch window; Sedna 3 & 4 under construction for upcoming launches.
VIREON Commissioning Timeline to Revenue
After launch, VIREON satellites expect ~3 months commissioning before entering revenue-generating operations, providing a clear near-term path to increase Data & Services revenue.
EPS-Sterna Project Restarted (Green Light)
EUMETSAT received go-ahead on 12 January and signed agreement with ESA on 27 January to start procurement; company is in final negotiations and expects to begin work soon — a major backlog/cash-flow driver when it starts.
INFLECION Phase 2 Progress
Phase 1 nearing close and discussions with ESA on Phase 2 are progressing, important for a constellation targeted in late 2027/2028 and for expanding maritime services.
Strategic Investments to Support Growth
Company is expanding sales and data-management teams and investing in data processing/distribution infrastructure to prepare for new satellites and future revenue growth.
Negative Updates
Net Sales Below Expectations
2025 net sales came in below internal expectations and reforecasts; management attributes the shortfall primarily to two programs: one delayed in start (EPS-Sterna) and another delayed due to an external supplier/customer technical disagreement, with affected revenue moved into 2026.
Negative Operational Cash Flow
The company failed to meet its objective of positive operational cash flow for 2025, largely due to the delayed start of a very large project which pushed cash receipts into 2026, despite achieving positive EBITDA.
Project Delays and Revenue Recognition Issues
EPS-Sterna experienced delays (recently green-lit but start pushed), another large program faced supplier/customer technical disagreements blocking work and revenue recognition, and SKAO work has some delays. Management noted SEK 32 million of SKAO revenue shifting from 2025 to 2026 and Q4 net sales came in SEK 22 million lower than November estimates.
Lower Order Intake in 2025
Order intake was generally lower in 2025. Management says focus on securing the large EPS-Sterna opportunity reduced activity to pursue other orders and contributed to a reduced backlog during the delay period.
Temporary EBITDA Margin Pressure in Data Segment
Although Data & Services grew strongly, EBITDA margins in the segment declined due to deliberate investments (hiring sales and data-management staff and preparing for increased data flows), causing near-term margin compression until new satellites are operational.
Guidance and Timing Uncertainty
Company will not issue full-year guidance until EPS-Sterna timing and impacts are settled. Launch dates (e.g., SpaceX) and program schedules remain subject to change, creating short-term visibility uncertainty; external analysts' revenue timing estimates (e.g., for Sterna) were described as pessimistic by management.
Company Guidance
Management signaled a cautiously positive outlook for 2026 but will only give full‑year guidance once EPS‑Sterna is finalized (EUMETSAT greenlight 12 Jan; ESA contract signed 27 Jan and work expected to start soon), noting 2025 delivered positive EBITDA but negative operational cash flow and net sales below reforecast; key metrics cited include Data & Services growth of ~78.5% YoY (a high‑EBITDA segment whose margins will temporarily fall due to investment), VIREON 1–2 shipped for an end‑March launch with ~3 months commissioning to revenue, Sedna 3–4 slated for early next year, about 15 AAC‑built satellites due to launch in the next six months, INFLECION Phase 2 aiming for a late‑2027/‑2028 constellation, and specific timing/recognition impacts such as SEK 32m shifted from 2025 to 2026 and a Q4 net sales shortfall of SEK 22m versus November estimates.AAC Clyde Space Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Balance sheet strength (low leverage and relatively stable equity) is a key support, but operating performance is weak: recurring losses, a sharp 2025 revenue contraction, and a major swing to negative operating and free cash flow in 2025 increase execution and funding risk.Income Statement
Revenue growth has been volatile—strong expansion in 2021–2024, followed by a sharp contraction in 2025 (down ~19.5% YoY). Profitability remains weak: the company is consistently loss-making, and 2025 deteriorated materially with negative gross profit and a much larger net loss (about -46.1M). While 2024 showed comparatively better operating performance (positive gross profit and positive EBITDA), the reversal in 2025 highlights execution and margin stability risk.26
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet looks relatively resilient with a large equity base versus debt (debt-to-equity was very low in prior years, ~2%–6%), suggesting modest financial leverage. Total assets are substantial and equity has been broadly stable. The key weakness is returns: profitability is negative, so equity is not currently generating positive earnings, and continued losses could erode the cushion over time.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is inconsistent. 2024 was a notable positive year (operating cash flow ~56.8M and free cash flow ~34.6M), but 2025 swung sharply negative (operating cash flow about -72.6M and free cash flow about -115.4M). This volatility increases funding risk and reduces financial flexibility, even though the company has previously demonstrated an ability to generate cash in stronger periods.34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 295.28M | 352.86M | 276.61M | 196.72M | 179.95M |
| Gross Profit | -60.47M | 247.46M | -43.00M | 135.69M | 110.35M |
| EBITDA | -3.02M | 29.45M | -1.01M | -29.61M | -18.13M |
| Net Income | -46.09M | -5.58M | -41.36M | -46.55M | -39.49M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 895.53M | 988.61M | 938.37M | 881.40M | 874.41M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 30.12M | 49.68M | 59.55M | 52.10M | 96.11M |
| Total Debt | 37.23M | 21.04M | 40.80M | 17.21M | 15.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 184.77M | 285.62M | 275.62M | 217.90M | 195.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | 712.19M | 704.02M | 663.57M | 663.51M | 678.81M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -115.42M | 34.63M | -46.09M | -34.44M | -64.68M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -72.60M | 56.79M | 4.88M | 6.43M | -35.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -39.09M | -44.64M | -50.97M | -40.87M | -21.78M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 93.63M | -23.00M | 53.91M | -10.27M | 89.64M |
AAC Clyde Space Technical Analysis
Positive
103.20
Price Trends
113.38
Negative
101.96
Positive
107.05
Positive
Market Momentum
-4.26
Positive
45.51
Neutral
60.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:AAC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 103.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 116.28, below the 50-day MA of 113.38, and below the 200-day MA of 107.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:AAC.
AAC Clyde Space Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | kr383.27M | 22.86 | 35.19% | 1.22% | 34.25% | 57.77% | |
64 Neutral | kr1.73B | 44.74 | ― | 2.75% | -3.14% | -35.70% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | kr6.42B | 43.20 | -16.38% | 0.41% | 47.87% | -439.87% | |
52 Neutral | kr96.41M | -166.33 | 1.33% | ― | 2.20% | 50.91% | |
49 Neutral | kr3.34B | -33.46 | ― | ― | 9.60% | 40.86% | |
46 Neutral | kr718.98M | -13.95 | -3.61% | ― | 30.82% | 57.74% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.