MilDef Group AB (MILDEF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr6.42B
• Dividend Yield: 0.41%
• Average Volume (3M): 422.70K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 43.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: 47.87%
• EPS Growth: -439.87%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 327
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 2.00
• Shares Outstanding: 47,114,895
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 339,511
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 422,703
• PEG Ratio: -0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.74
• P/FCF Ratio: -177.48
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr190.00
• Price Target Upside: 52.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr2.87B

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: kr144.00 ▲(15.48% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is primarily held back by weakened cash generation in 2025 alongside a sharp rise in debt, despite strong revenue growth and a meaningful profitability rebound. Technical signals are mixed (better short-term trend but weaker longer-term trend), and valuation is demanding due to a high P/E with a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue & Profit Rebound

Sustained double-digit revenue growth with a return to positive EBIT and net margins indicates underlying demand for ruggedized defense products and improved operational execution. Over 2–6 months this supports program delivery credibility, pricing leverage and the ability to convert contracts into repeatable profitable sales streams.

Consistent Gross Margins

High and steady gross margins reflect durable product differentiation and pricing power in mission-critical rugged hardware. This margin sustainability tends to persist in defense supply chains, supporting reinvestment in R&D and long lifecycle spare/support revenues that underpin recurring cashflows beyond transient cycles.

Stronger Equity Base & Returns

A materially larger equity base and recovering returns provide balance sheet resilience for multi‑year program participation and capital expenditure. This improved capitalization increases bidding capacity for framework contracts and reduces dilution risk when funding working capital or sustaining longer defense procurement timelines.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Conversion

Negative operating and free cash flow despite reported profits point to working capital strain, timing of receipts, or elevated investments. Over several months this can force reliance on external financing, increase funding costs, constrain supplier relationships, and reduce capacity to self-fund program deliveries or sustainability services.

Rising Leverage

A large increase in debt materially raises financial fixed costs and covenant exposure. Higher leverage reduces flexibility to absorb procurement timing swings, limits ability to invest opportunistically, and increases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity—structural risks for a company dependent on multi‑year defense contracts.

Earnings Volatility

Sharp swings from loss to profit indicate execution, program mix, or one-off sensitivity. For defense suppliers this undermines predictability for long-term contracts and budgeting, raises scrutiny from customers and lenders, and makes sustaining repeatable margins and cash generation more uncertain across procurement cycles.

MilDef Group AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MilDef Group AB (publ), through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells rugged IT solutions and special electronics primarily to customers in the security and defense sectors. The company's IT solutions include laptops, tablets, handhelds, concepts, tracking solutions, servers, switches, routers, intelligent displays, and accessories. It has operations in Sweden, Norway, Finland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Helsingborg, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

MilDef generates revenue through the sale of its ruggedized IT products and systems to military and defense organizations. The company's primary revenue streams include direct sales of hardware, software licenses, and ongoing maintenance and support contracts. Additionally, MILDEF often engages in long-term contracts and partnerships with various government defense agencies and private defense contractors, which provide a stable income source. The company may also benefit from research and development funding through collaborations with defense ministries and participation in defense procurement programs.

MilDef Group AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong 2025 revenue growth (+21.7%) and a sharp profitability rebound (EBIT margin ~10.5%, net margin ~7.2%) with consistently healthy gross margins. Offsetting this, cash conversion weakened materially (negative operating cash flow and free cash flow in 2025) and leverage increased significantly (debt up to ~956M), raising financial risk.

Income Statement

Revenue growth is strong in the latest year (+21.7% in 2025) and profitability rebounded sharply from a large 2024 loss to solid 2025 results (EBIT margin ~10.5%, net margin ~7.2%). Gross margins have remained consistently healthy (~45–49%) over time. The main weakness is earnings volatility: 2024 posted deeply negative EBIT and net income, showing sensitivity to execution, mix, or one-off items despite the sector’s typically stable demand profile.

Balance Sheet

Equity has grown materially (to ~1.52B in 2025 from ~1.10B in 2024), supporting a larger asset base. However, leverage increased meaningfully: total debt rose to ~956M in 2025 from ~220M in 2024, pushing debt relative to equity up to ~0.63 (from ~0.20). Returns improved to ~9.7% in 2025 after a weak 2024, but the balance sheet now carries higher financial risk and will rely more on consistent cash generation.

Cash Flow

Cash conversion deteriorated in 2025: operating cash flow turned slightly negative (-3M) and free cash flow was negative (-31.6M), a sharp swing from strong positive levels in 2024 (operating cash flow ~144M; free cash flow ~124M). This mismatch—profitable earnings but negative cash flow in the latest year—raises questions around working capital build, timing of customer receipts, or elevated investment needs. The key strength is that prior years show the business can generate meaningful cash (notably 2024), but the consistency is currently weak.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.05B	1.20B	1.15B	738.80M	469.60M
Gross Profit	920.10M	589.10M	556.30M	352.30M	210.10M
EBITDA	324.70M	-36.10M	176.70M	57.80M	23.20M
Net Income	147.70M	-220.30M	69.00M	14.20M	-700.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.91B	1.68B	1.53B	1.39B	808.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	148.60M	530.40M	81.50M	59.90M	169.20M
Total Debt	955.60M	220.40M	367.40M	314.70M	102.10M
Total Liabilities	1.39B	581.90M	681.10M	606.00M	240.00M
Stockholders Equity	1.52B	1.10B	844.60M	787.90M	568.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-31.60M	123.90M	8.70M	-94.80M	-71.90M
Operating Cash Flow	-3.00M	144.40M	54.50M	-76.80M	-55.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-731.50M	-33.30M	-68.90M	-321.30M	-187.20M
Financing Cash Flow	359.70M	335.10M	38.50M	285.70M	362.90M

MilDef Group AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 124.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:MILDEF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 124.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 137.91, below the 50-day MA of 133.96, and below the 200-day MA of 167.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:MILDEF.

MilDef Group AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAAB.B	70 Outperform	kr351.87B	55.91	13.56%	0.39%	22.49%	30.47%
INSTAL	64 Neutral	kr9.80B	28.39	8.12%	2.67%	-3.68%	-48.79%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
FAG	56 Neutral	kr5.21B	16.44	3.57%	3.46%	-6.23%	-37.00%
MILDEF	53 Neutral	kr6.42B	43.20	-16.38%	0.41%	47.87%	-439.87%
GOMX	49 Neutral	kr3.34B	-33.46	―	―	9.60%	40.86%
SALT.B	46 Neutral	kr912.42M	-12.11	-40.77%	―	11.85%	6.39%

MilDef Group AB Corporate Events

MilDef posts record 2025 results and ramps capacity on surging NATO demand

MilDef closed 2025 with its strongest quarter to date, delivering sharp growth in orders, sales and earnings while continuing to invest heavily in expanded capacity to meet surging defense IT demand. Fourth-quarter order intake rose 30% and net sales jumped 87%, lifting adjusted operating margins and generating positive free cash flow, while full-year orders and order backlog increased by 76% and 75% respectively, driven largely by acquisitions including Germany’s roda computer. Major new contracts with L3Harris, a European NATO army digitalization program, and a SEK 320 million order won by roda in Germany underscore MilDef’s strengthening position in NATO markets, even as supply chain volatility in components such as DRAM and NAND weighs on gross margins. The company is ramping production capacity with a new Stockholm-area facility and planned 50% capacity expansion in Helsingborg, and the board has proposed raising the dividend, signaling confidence in continued robust demand despite ongoing geopolitical and supply chain uncertainties.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:MILDEF) stock is a Hold with a SEK122.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MilDef Group AB stock, see the SE:MILDEF Stock Forecast page.

MilDef to Present Year-End and Q4 2025 Results on 5 February

MilDef will publish its year-end and fourth quarter 2025 report on 5 February at 08:00 CET and will host an online conference for investors, analysts and media the same day from 10:00 to 10:45 CET via Microsoft Teams. The results will be presented in English by CEO and President Daniel Ljunggren and CFO Viveca Johnsson, with a Q&A session moderated by Head of Investor Relations Olof Engvall, and the presentation materials will be made available on the company’s website that morning, underscoring MilDef’s efforts to maintain transparent communication with the capital markets and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SE:MILDEF) stock is a Hold with a SEK149.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MilDef Group AB stock, see the SE:MILDEF Stock Forecast page.