Saab AB (SAAB.B) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr370.80B
• Dividend Yield: 0.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.49M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 71.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 22.49%
• EPS Growth: 30.47%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 25,369
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 1.77
• Shares Outstanding: 533,847,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,351,019
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,494,750
• PEG Ratio: 1.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 65.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: kr440.00
• Price Target Upside: -34.98% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: kr790.00 ▲(16.74% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance and a notably constructive earnings update with upgraded growth guidance and a large backlog. Offsetting these strengths are elevated valuation (high P/E and low yield) and overbought technical conditions, plus continued cash flow pressure highlighted in both financials and the earnings call.

Positive Factors

Substantial Order Backlog

A SEK 202bn backlog with 73% international exposure provides multi-year revenue visibility and reduces single-country concentration risk. This underpins production planning, justifies capacity expansion, and supports predictable top-line growth over several quarters.

Upgraded 2025 Guidance & Organic Growth

Management raising 2025 growth guidance and reporting strong organic growth signals durable end-market demand for Saab’s products. Higher forward guidance supports continued investment in capacity and R&D, enabling sustained revenue expansion rather than a short-term spike.

Healthy Margins and Conservative Leverage

Solid margins and low leverage indicate operational efficiency and financial resilience. A strong ROE and conservative D/E provide flexibility to fund R&D, bid on large defense contracts, and weather cyclical dips without aggressive refinancing, supporting long-term competitiveness.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Pressure

A >50% drop in FCF growth materially weakens financial flexibility. Reduced free cash constrains capital allocation, elevates reliance on external funding for capacity or R&D, and can delay deleveraging or shareholder returns, posing a sustained risk if cash conversion fails to normalize.

T-7 Program Startup Costs

Ongoing T-7 ramp-up costs depress Aeronautics margins and cash conversion over multiple quarters. Such program startup expenses are structural until production scales and unit economics improve, potentially limiting segment profitability and absorbing management focus and capital.

Supply-Chain and Critical Input Risks

Dependence on constrained inputs and supplier networks risks production bottlenecks and cost inflation. Persistent rare-earth or component shortages can limit delivery capacity for key systems, force redesigns or higher procurement costs, and cap long-term margin and volume expansion.

Saab AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Saab AB (publ) provides products, services, and solutions for the military defense, aerospace, and civil security markets worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Aeronautics, Dynamics, Surveillance, Kockums, and Combitech. The company develops military and civil aviation technology, as well as conducts studies on manned and unmanned aircraft systems. It also provides ground combat weapons, missile systems, torpedoes, unmanned underwater vehicles, training and simulation systems, and signature management systems for armed forces; and niche products for the civil and defense market, such as underwater vehicles for the offshore industry. In addition, the company offers solutions for safety and security, surveillance and decision support, and threat detection, location, and protection, which include airborne, ground-based and naval radar, electronic warfare, and combat systems, as well as C4I solutions. Further, it provides product integration, support, technical maintenance, and logistics services, as well as products, solutions, and services. Additionally, the company offers technology for traffic management and public safety; and supports industry, defense, and public sectors with services comprising cyber security, artificial intelligence, and big data analysis. It also provides submarines with the Stirling system for air independent propulsion, surface combatants, mine hunting systems, and autonomous vessels; and systems development, systems integration, information security, systems security, communications, mechanics, and technical product information. Saab AB (publ) was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Saab AB generates revenue through multiple streams primarily from defense contracts, which include the sale of military aircraft, naval systems, and advanced weaponry. Additionally, the company earns income from providing maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for defense systems and equipment. Another significant revenue source is the development and delivery of civil aviation solutions and surveillance systems. Saab's partnerships with various governments and defense agencies, as well as collaboration with other defense contractors, are crucial for securing contracts and funding. The company's involvement in research and development projects, often supported by grants or joint ventures, also contributes to its earnings, particularly in emerging technology areas like cyber defense and autonomous systems.

Saab AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and growth (TTM revenue up 3.32%, gross margin 21.68%, net margin 7.43%) and a stable balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.25, ROE 13.96%). The key drag is cash generation, with free cash flow growth down 54.22% TTM and only moderate cash-flow-to-earnings efficiency.

Income Statement

Saab AB has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 3.32% increase in TTM, supported by a solid gross profit margin of 21.68%. The net profit margin has improved to 7.43%, indicating enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 10.30% and 11.06%, respectively, reflecting efficient operational management. Overall, the income statement shows robust growth and profitability trends.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.25, indicating a stable leverage position. Return on equity is strong at 13.96%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is solid, reflecting a strong capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet is stable with a good balance between debt and equity.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is robust, but free cash flow growth has declined by 54.22% in TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.21, and free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.46, indicating moderate cash flow efficiency. While operating cash flow remains strong, the decline in free cash flow growth suggests potential cash flow management challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	72.30B	63.75B	51.61B	42.01B	39.15B	35.43B
Gross Profit	15.90B	13.66B	11.26B	8.89B	8.21B	5.68B
EBITDA	7.89B	8.49B	7.36B	4.84B	4.35B	2.75B
Net Income	5.19B	4.17B	3.38B	2.19B	1.93B	1.07B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	108.97B	99.82B	82.76B	72.36B	65.04B	60.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.93B	11.74B	13.47B	12.86B	11.84B	10.38B
Total Debt	13.05B	10.38B	10.04B	9.99B	9.72B	10.00B
Total Liabilities	67.74B	64.01B	50.40B	42.49B	41.79B	38.92B
Stockholders Equity	40.89B	35.50B	32.03B	29.49B	22.98B	21.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.32B	1.89B	2.92B	2.34B	3.19B	2.91B
Operating Cash Flow	8.64B	6.73B	6.46B	4.65B	5.71B	5.80B
Investing Cash Flow	-9.22B	-4.18B	-5.92B	-2.44B	-4.70B	-4.00B
Financing Cash Flow	88.00M	-1.93B	-1.23B	-1.18B	-1.64B	-1.13B

Saab AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 676.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:SAAB.B, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 676.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 690.98, above the 50-day MA of 574.86, and above the 200-day MA of 518.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 35.57 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:SAAB.B.

Saab AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAAB.B	71 Outperform	kr370.80B	71.60	13.56%	0.39%	22.49%	30.47%
AVT.B	69 Neutral	kr398.75M	23.53	35.19%	1.22%	34.25%	57.77%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CTT	61 Neutral	kr2.05B	35.90	―	2.75%	-3.14%	-35.70%
AAC	55 Neutral	kr959.23M	-37.37	-3.61%	―	30.82%	57.74%
GOMX	49 Neutral	kr3.94B	-37.02	―	―	9.60%	40.86%
MILDEF	48 Neutral	kr6.17B	-27.05	-16.38%	0.41%	47.87%	-439.87%

Saab AB Corporate Events

Saab Sets 5 February Date for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results Presentation

Saab has scheduled the presentation of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results for Thursday, 5 February, with CEO and President Micael Johansson and CFO Anna Wijkander set to host the briefing. The financial report will be published on the company’s website at 07:30 CET the same day, followed by a webcast and conference call at 10:00 CET, underscoring Saab’s efforts to maintain transparent communication with investors and other stakeholders through accessible presentation materials and question opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK802.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Launches Poland’s Second SIGINT Ship, Advancing Baltic Maritime Intelligence Capabilities

Saab has launched ORP Henryk Zygalski, the second and final Polish signals intelligence (SIGINT) vessel under the DELFIN programme, at a ceremony in Gdańsk, marking a significant milestone in Poland’s efforts to bolster maritime electronic intelligence capabilities in the Baltic Sea region. As prime contractor, Saab is responsible for supplying and integrating the advanced mission and reconnaissance systems, while Remontowa Shipbuilding constructs the hulls and local partners including MMC and other Polish defence companies contribute to design and project execution; both ships, including the first unit ORP Jerzy Różycki, will receive their onboard systems and undergo sea trials ahead of planned deliveries in 2027 and 2028, deepening industrial cooperation between Sweden and Poland and reinforcing European security in a strategically sensitive area.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK696.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Wins SEK 1.5 Billion Swedish Order for Trackfire Remote Weapon Stations

Saab has secured a SEK 1.5 billion order from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration for its Trackfire Remote Weapon Station, with deliveries scheduled between 2026 and 2028 to equip the Swedish Army and the Amphibious Battalion 2030. The contract, which includes the new Trackfire ARES variant featuring a 30×113 mm M230LF Bushmaster chain gun for counter‑drone capability, strengthens Saab’s position in advanced remote weapon systems and underscores its role in modernising Sweden’s future amphibious and land forces with precision, adaptable firepower.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK693.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Wins SEK 3 Billion Lithuanian Order for RBS 70 Air Defence Missiles

Saab AB has secured a SEK 3 billion order from the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence for RBS 70 Bolide missiles, with deliveries scheduled between 2028 and 2032 under an existing framework agreement for the RBS 70 NG short-range air defence system with Sweden’s FMV and Lithuania. The deal deepens Saab’s long-standing role in Lithuania’s air defence, where RBS 70 systems have been in use since 2004 and are integrated into the mobile MSHORAD solution, reinforcing Lithuania’s airspace protection and underscoring Saab’s position as a key supplier of short-range air defence in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK518.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Wins SEK 12.3 Billion French Order for GlobalEye Early Warning Aircraft

Saab has secured a contract worth approximately SEK 12.3 billion from France’s defence procurement agency DGA for two GlobalEye Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft, including associated ground equipment, training and support, with deliveries scheduled between 2029 and 2032 and an option for two additional aircraft. The deal deepens Saab’s strategic partnership with France, strengthens Europe’s airborne early‑warning capabilities as both Sweden and France will operate GlobalEye, and underpins Saab’s position in the high‑end surveillance and situational‑awareness market by expanding the footprint of its multi‑domain AEW&C platform that enhances early threat detection for air, sea and land forces.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK518.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Wins SEK 1.3 Billion Lithuanian Order for AT4 and Carl-Gustaf Ammunition

Saab has secured SEK 1.3 billion in orders from Lithuania for its AT4 shoulder-launched weapon and ammunition for the Carl-Gustaf system, with deliveries scheduled between 2027 and 2029. The contracts, placed under a broader framework agreement that also covers Latvia and Estonia, reinforce Saab’s position as a key supplier of 84mm ground combat systems in the Baltic region, underscoring growing regional demand for reliable, versatile anti-armour and support weapons and strengthening the company’s role in European defence preparedness.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK518.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Wins SEK 1.1 Billion Swedish Order for Arthur Artillery Locating Radars

Saab has secured a SEK 1.1 billion order from Sweden’s Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) for multiple Arthur artillery locating radar systems, including integration into vehicles and long-term support for the Swedish Armed Forces, with deliveries scheduled for 2027. The latest Arthur radars can detect and warn of incoming indirect fire at ranges up to 100 km, track numerous projectiles simultaneously, and calculate their points of origin, substantially boosting Sweden’s brigade-level capability for early warning and rapid counter-fire. The agreement also includes 15-year support options and is structured to allow partner nations to join, reinforcing Saab’s position in the global defence radar market and potentially expanding its international customer base for mobile artillery surveillance solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK518.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Wins SEK 2.5 Billion FMV Order to Advance Gripen Development

Saab AB has secured an order worth approximately SEK 2.5 billion from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) to provide development resources for the Gripen fighter system for the period 2026–2028. The contract covers operation and support of test aircraft and advanced tools, including rigs and simulators, which are critical for verification, validation and the development of new capabilities for Gripen. Saab says the order will ensure its development resources remain efficient, maintainable and rapidly configurable, enabling continuous upgrades of the Gripen system to address current and future threat environments and reinforcing the company’s position as a strategic supplier to Sweden’s defence infrastructure.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK518.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Wins EUR 130 Million NATO Order for Sirius SIGINT and Surveillance System

Saab has secured an order worth about EUR 130 million from a European NATO country for its Sirius passive sensor system for signals intelligence and surveillance, with deliveries scheduled through 2030. The Sirius solution integrates Communication Intelligence (COMINT) and Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) sensors into a single system, providing both tactical situational awareness and strategic intelligence gathering across air, land and sea domains, reinforcing Saab’s position as a key supplier of advanced SIGINT capabilities to European and NATO defence customers and supporting broader efforts to enhance allied situational awareness and decision-making.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK518.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Secures EUR 258 Million Arexis System Order for German Eurofighters

Saab has received final approval for its second order of the Arexis Electronic Warfare sensor suite, which will equip German Eurofighters. The order includes advanced AI technology developed in partnership with Helsing, marking a major deal valued at approximately EUR 258 million, showcasing Saab’s continued leadership in defence innovation.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK518.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Secures Contract with Spanish Army for Advanced Training Systems

Saab has secured a contract with the Spanish Army to supply Individual Duel Simulation systems, marking the first order under a framework agreement potentially worth EUR 34 million. This collaboration, involving local partner Tecnobit, will establish Saab’s live training systems in Spain, enhancing the Spanish Army’s training capabilities with advanced, realistic, and interoperable systems to prepare for modern warfare challenges.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK518.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Secures Third MSHORAD Order from Lithuania

Saab has secured a third order from the Lithuanian Defence Materiel Agency for its Mobile Short Range Air Defence (MSHORAD) system, valued at approximately SEK 1.4 billion, with deliveries scheduled between 2026 and 2030. This order enhances Saab’s position in the defence industry by reinforcing its role in providing advanced mobile air defence solutions, which are crucial for protecting moving units against aerial threats, thereby strengthening Lithuania’s national security.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Buy with a SEK518.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Secures SEK 2.1 Billion Swedish Defence Order

Saab has secured a significant order from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration worth approximately SEK 2.1 billion for the delivery of sensors and command-and-control systems for a ground-based air defence solution for brigades. This contract, set for delivery between 2027 and 2028, aims to enhance Sweden’s air defence capabilities with a highly mobile short-range system, integrating the Giraffe 1X radar and other components. This development strengthens Saab’s position in the defence industry, showcasing its technological prowess in providing advanced defence solutions, and is expected to bolster Sweden’s ability to detect and engage airborne threats effectively.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Hold with a SEK498.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Secures EUR 3.1 Billion Contract with Colombia for Gripen Fighter Jets

Saab has secured a EUR 3.1 billion contract with the Colombian Government to supply 17 Gripen E/F fighter aircraft, with deliveries scheduled from 2026 to 2032. This deal includes a comprehensive industrial cooperation package aimed at benefiting Colombia in various sectors, marking the start of a significant partnership to enhance Colombia’s defence capabilities and innovation potential.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Sell with a SEK400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Secures EUR 549 Million Orders for Arexis EW System for German Eurofighters

Saab has secured two significant orders from Airbus Defence and Space to supply the Arexis Electronic Warfare sensor suite for German Eurofighters, totaling approximately EUR 549 million. This development strengthens Swedish-German defense collaboration and enhances the Eurofighter’s capabilities, marking a strategic advancement in Saab’s operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Sell with a SEK400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Secures Major Carl-Gustaf M4 Contract with Denmark

Saab has secured a SEK 510 million contract with the Danish Ministry of Defence for the delivery of Carl-Gustaf M4 weapons, ammunition, and training equipment, with deliveries scheduled from 2026 to 2028. This order reinforces Saab’s long-standing relationship with the Danish Armed Forces and highlights the Carl-Gustaf M4’s adaptability and precision, enhancing Denmark’s defense capabilities against evolving threats.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Sell with a SEK400.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.

Saab Secures $46 Million U.S. Army Contract for Giraffe 1X Radars

Saab has secured a $46 million contract from the U.S. Army to supply Giraffe 1X radars, emphasizing the increasing demand for advanced radar technology to bolster air defense and counter-unmanned aerial systems capabilities globally. The Giraffe 1X offers a compact, mobile design with real-time air surveillance, providing the U.S. Army and its partners with a significant operational advantage in addressing emerging threats.

The most recent analyst rating on ($SE:SAAB.B) stock is a Sell with a SEK420.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Saab AB stock, see the SE:SAAB.B Stock Forecast page.