Saab AB (SE:SAAB.B)
:SAAB.B
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Saab AB
(SAAB.B)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
kr534.00
▼(-10.34% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:04/24/26
The score is driven primarily by strong fundamentals and supportive earnings-call momentum (rapid growth, improving margins, and record backlog), partially offset by moderate cash conversion. The rating is capped by weak technical trend signals and a demanding valuation (high P/E and low yield), which increase downside sensitivity if execution risks (T-7, supply chain, high CapEx) intensify.
Positive Factors
Large backlog and record order intake
A SEK 275bn backlog (~3.5x sales) and SEK 169bn 2025 bookings provide multi-year revenue visibility, smoothing sales timing risk and underpinning recurring services, aftermarket and long-term delivery schedules that support durable top-line growth and planning.
Negative Factors
T-7 program underabsorption
The multi-year unprofitability and underabsorption on the T-7 program is a structural earnings and cash drag until breakeven in 2028–29. Persistent program losses can erode group margins, divert management focus and require additional provisions or funding over several reporting periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large backlog and record order intake
A SEK 275bn backlog (~3.5x sales) and SEK 169bn 2025 bookings provide multi-year revenue visibility, smoothing sales timing risk and underpinning recurring services, aftermarket and long-term delivery schedules that support durable top-line growth and planning.
Read all positive factors
Saab AB (SAAB.B) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)
Market Cap
kr282.73B
Dividend Yield0.39%
Average Volume (3M)2.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)57.8
Beta (1Y)0.80
Revenue Growth26.26%
EPS Growth38.19%
CountrySE
Employees25,369
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)12.06
Shares Outstanding533,847,800
10 Day Avg. Volume2,351,019
30 Day Avg. Volume2,494,750
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.90
Price to Book (P/B)6.66
Price to Sales (P/S)3.64
P/FCF Ratio48.13
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
kr580.33Price Target Upside-2.56% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)14.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)kr96.70B
Saab AB Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Saab AB (publ) provides products, services, and solutions for the military defense, aerospace, and civil security markets worldwide. The company operates through five segments: Aeronautics, Dynamics, Surveillance, Kockums, and Combitech. The compa...
How the Company Makes Money
Saab primarily makes money by selling defense and security products and by earning recurring revenue from services that support those products across their operating lives. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) New system sales and project de...
Saab AB Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes very strong commercial momentum, record order intake, robust backlog expansion, double‑digit revenue and EBIT growth, strong cash generation and an upgraded medium‑term growth target. These substantial positives are tempered by execution risks: multi‑year underabsorption on the T‑7 program, supply‑chain/material constraints, ongoing remediation of some unprofitable Surveillance contracts, and the need for continued high CapEx. On balance, the positives (record orders, backlog, margin expansion, cash conversion, and strategic wins) materially outweigh the challenges, though execution and political/timing risks remain.Positive Updates
Record Order Intake and Backlog Expansion
Order bookings totaled SEK 169 billion for 2025 with an exceptional Q4 order intake of SEK 100 billion (up from SEK 17 billion in Q4 2024, +~488%). Backlog reached SEK 275 billion, equivalent to ~3.5x 2025 sales, with backlog for 2026 and 2027 increased by 29% and 46% respectively.
Negative Updates
T-7 Program Underabsorption and Multi-year Losses
T-7 program (Aeronautics, West Lafayette facility) continues to suffer from underabsorption and elevated costs; only a few of the contracted 350 aircraft delivered so far. Management expects the program to remain unprofitable for several years with breakeven likely around 2028–2029, not in 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Order Intake and Backlog Expansion
Order bookings totaled SEK 169 billion for 2025 with an exceptional Q4 order intake of SEK 100 billion (up from SEK 17 billion in Q4 2024, +~488%). Backlog reached SEK 275 billion, equivalent to ~3.5x 2025 sales, with backlog for 2026 and 2027 increased by 29% and 46% respectively.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Saab upgraded its medium‑term revenue target to a 22% average CAGR for 2023–2027 (implying roughly 20% average growth for 2026–27), and reiterated that it aims to grow EBIT faster than sales and to maintain cash conversion above 60%. Management pointed to a SEK 275bn backlog (3.5x 2025 sales), SEK 169bn order bookings in 2025 (SEK 100bn in Q4), roughly SEK 79bn in 2025 sales (24.1% reported / 25.6% organic), EBIT up 37% to a 9.8% margin, operational cash flow of about SEK 12bn and cash conversion of 68% in 2025 (62% cumulative 2023–25), ROCE 16.5%, net liquidity SEK 4bn with SEK 18.7bn cash & liquid investments and a SEK 6bn undrawn RCF; investments rose to SEK 7.2bn in 2025 and management expects continued high CapEx to fund capacity expansion.Saab AB Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 82.52B | 79.15B | 63.75B | 51.61B | 42.01B | 39.15B |
| Gross Profit | 17.92B | 17.17B | 13.66B | 11.26B | 8.89B | 8.21B |
| EBITDA | 10.41B | 11.19B | 8.49B | 7.36B | 4.84B | 4.35B |
| Net Income | 6.48B | 6.31B | 4.17B | 3.38B | 2.19B | 1.93B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 124.45B | 124.70B | 99.82B | 82.76B | 72.36B | 65.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.10B | 15.36B | 11.74B | 13.47B | 12.86B | 11.84B |
| Total Debt | 14.43B | 18.91B | 10.38B | 10.04B | 9.99B | 9.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 79.43B | 81.03B | 64.01B | 50.40B | 42.49B | 41.79B |
| Stockholders Equity | 44.65B | 43.34B | 35.50B | 32.03B | 29.49B | 22.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.49B | 5.99B | 1.89B | 2.92B | 2.34B | 3.19B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 12.71B | 12.11B | 6.73B | 6.46B | 4.65B | 5.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.34B | -11.57B | -4.18B | -5.92B | -2.44B | -4.70B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 403.00M | 574.00M | -1.93B | -1.23B | -1.18B | -1.64B |
Saab AB Technical Analysis
Negative
595.60
Price Trends
604.17
Negative
624.60
Negative
569.97
Negative
Market Momentum
-29.76
Positive
37.18
Neutral
16.23
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:SAAB.B, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 595.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 549.30, below the 50-day MA of 604.17, and above the 200-day MA of 569.97, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -29.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:SAAB.B.
Saab AB Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | kr8.54B | 22.93 | 10.29% | 0.41% | 84.46% | ― | |
69 Neutral | kr332.06M | 25.79 | 33.71% | 1.22% | 31.62% | 28.58% | |
67 Neutral | kr282.73B | 57.79 | 13.56% | 0.39% | 26.26% | 38.19% | |
59 Neutral | kr1.14B | -13.06 | -6.70% | ― | -18.69% | -252.61% | |
58 Neutral | kr1.52B | 60.96 | ― | 2.75% | 0.11% | -35.60% | |
57 Neutral | kr3.52B | -997.43 | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% |
* General Sector Average
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Saab AB Corporate Events
Saab Wins French Contract to Supply Giraffe 1X Radars on Scania Tactical Vehicles
May 18, 2026
Saab has secured a contract in partnership with Scania France to supply 17 Giraffe 1X 3D radars and integrate 16 of them onto Scania V3P tactical vehicle chassis for the French Armed Forces. The deal, which also covers spare parts, training and su...
Saab Deepens Naval Ties With Poland’s PGZ in Strategic Defence Pact
May 13, 2026
Saab has entered a strategic collaboration agreement in the naval domain with Poland’s largest defence corporation, PGZ Group, aiming to integrate PGZ’s naval entities into Saab’s supply chain and jointly support the service and ...
Saab Delivers Strong Q1 Growth and Margin Gains on Robust Defence Demand
Apr 23, 2026
Saab AB reported a strong start to 2026, with first-quarter sales rising 21% year-on-year to SEK 19.2 billion, reflecting 23.6% organic growth and double-digit gains across all business areas, led by its Surveillance division. While total order bo...
Saab Sets Date for Q1 2026 Interim Report and Investor Webcast
Apr 9, 2026
Saab AB will present its interim report for the first quarter of 2026 on Thursday, 23 April, with the report released early that morning and followed by a webcast and conference call led by CEO Micael Johansson and CFO Anna Wijkander. The event, w...
Saab Wins SEK 2.6 Billion Swedish Contract for Advanced Counter-Drone System
Apr 2, 2026
Saab has secured a SEK 2.6 billion order from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration for a mobile, modular counter-unmanned aerial system aimed at protecting the Swedish Armed Forces and critical civil infrastructure from drone threats. Deliv...
Saab AGM Confirms Dividend, Board Line-Up and Overhauls Incentive Plans
Apr 1, 2026
Saab AB’s annual general meeting in Linköping approved the 2025 financial statements and confirmed a dividend of SEK 2.40 per share, to be paid in two equal instalments in April and October 2026, while granting discharge from liability ...
Saab Taps Cohere for Advanced AI Push in GlobalEye Defence Program
Mar 23, 2026
Saab has signed a memorandum of understanding with Canadian enterprise AI specialist Cohere to collaborate on advanced artificial intelligence technologies for GlobalEye, Saab’s airborne early warning and control platform. The partnership is...
Saab to Consolidate Naval Operations into New Business Area
Mar 13, 2026
Saab is consolidating its naval operations into a single business area called Naval, merging business area Kockums with most of the Naval Combat Systems unit from the Surveillance division. The reorganisation, effective 1 April 2026 and led by cur...
Saab Highlights Security-Focused Mission in 2025 Annual Report
Mar 3, 2026
Saab AB’s 2025 annual report reiterates its core purpose of keeping people and society safe, underpinned by an ambition to lead innovation in defence technology. The company highlights its evolution into a global leader in advanced defence s...
Saab Calls 2026 AGM, Offers Hybrid Participation with Tight Security
Feb 24, 2026
Saab AB has convened its shareholders to the Annual General Meeting, to be held on 1 April 2026 at the company’s hangar in Linköping, Sweden, with proceedings conducted in Swedish and including an air show featuring the Gripen fighter j...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.