Southern Copper Corp (SCCO)
NYSE:SCCO
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Southern Copper
(NYSE:SCCO)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$191.00
▼(-1.71% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is primarily driven by very strong financial performance (exceptional margins and solid free cash flow). It is tempered by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages, negative MACD), a relatively high P/E for a cyclical business, and added uncertainty from the CEO transition; earnings-call results were strong but guidance points to near-term production headwinds.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Southern Copper’s large and improving cash generation (TTM operating cash and strong free cash flow) provides durable funding for sustained capex, dividends, and debt reduction. Reliable cash conversion supports multi-year project financing and shareholder returns even through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Commodity Price Sensitivity
Southern Copper’s earnings and cash are materially driven by metal price cycles. While margins are strong, sustained revenue and FCF depend on favorable copper and by-product prices, leaving multi‑year planning and returns exposed to global demand/supply shifts.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Southern Copper’s large and improving cash generation (TTM operating cash and strong free cash flow) provides durable funding for sustained capex, dividends, and debt reduction. Reliable cash conversion supports multi-year project financing and shareholder returns even through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Southern Copper (SCCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$151.92B
Dividend Yield2.07%
Average Volume (3M)1.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.3
Beta (1Y)1.43
Revenue Growth21.70%
EPS Growth36.79%
CountryUS
Employees16,133
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.04
Shares Outstanding826,065,060
10 Day Avg. Volume1,311,108
30 Day Avg. Volume1,658,941
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.13
Price to Book (P/B)10.89
Price to Sales (P/S)8.96
P/FCF Ratio35.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$151.00Price Target Upside-22.29% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Sell
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)7.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.98B
Southern Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Southern Copper Corporation engages in mining, exploring, smelting, and refining copper and other minerals in Peru, Mexico, Argentina, Ecuador, and Chile. The company is involved in the mining, milling, and flotation of copper ore to produce coppe...
How the Company Makes Money
Southern Copper makes money mainly by producing and selling copper (its primary product) and monetizing a portfolio of by-products from the same ore bodies and processing chain. (1) Copper sales: Revenue is driven primarily by sales of refined cop...
Southern Copper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple record financial results (net sales, adjusted EBITDA, net income), strong cash flow and significant by-product volume and price tailwinds that materially improved margins and shareholder returns. Operationally, the company faces near-term challenges: a modest decline in copper production with a lower 2026 guidance, rising operating costs and one-time charges, project-level impediments (illegal miners at Los Chancas) and strategically chosen production shifts at Buenavista that affect copper and molybdenum volumes. On balance the positive financial outcomes, robust margins, strong cash generation, and clear project progress (Tia Maria) outweigh the operational headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Net Sales
Net sales reached a record $13.4 billion in 2025, up 17% versus 2024, driven by higher by-product volumes and improved metal prices.
Negative Updates
Copper Production Decline and 2026 Guidance Cut
Full-year 2025 copper production fell 1.8% YoY to 956,270 tons and was 1% below 2025 plan (965,000 t). 2026 guidance calls for 911,400 tons, a 4.7% decrease versus 2025, driven by lower ore grades at Peruvian operations.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Sales
Net sales reached a record $13.4 billion in 2025, up 17% versus 2024, driven by higher by-product volumes and improved metal prices.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that 2026 copper production is expected at 911,400 tons (a 4.7% decline versus 2025’s 956,270 tons and ~1% below the 2025 plan of 965,000 tons), with 2027 roughly in line (a little north of 900,000 tons) and a multi‑year ramp to ~970,000 tons in 2028 and ~1,060,000 tons by 2029–2031 as Tía María and other projects come online; Tía María’s budget remains $1.8 billion (24% complete at end‑2025), with $800 million committed, a 2026 cash out forecast of $508 million, construction to finish by H1‑2027, ~30,000 tons of refined copper in H2‑2027 and 120,000 tons/year from 2028. For by‑products the company expects molybdenum ~26,000 tons in 2026 (vs 31,200 tons in 2025), silver ~24 million ounces in 2026 (flat to down ~2% vs 2025), and zinc production/support that helped 2025 zinc rise ~36% (2025 zinc ~165,500 tonnes); Q4‑2025 copper averaged $5.03/lb (LME) and $5.15/lb (COMEX), the firm estimates a 2026 market deficit of ~320,000 tons and global inventories near ~14 days of demand. Cost guidance: operating cash cost per lb before by‑product credits was $2.29 in Q4 and $2.17 for 2025 (net of by‑product credits $0.58/lb for 2025; Q4 by‑product credits were $920M or $1.77/lb), and management expects operating costs to be “relatively flat on a per‑pound basis” in 2026 while noting currency appreciation pressure (cost mix ~39% MXN, 10% PEN, 51% USD). Financial and capital metrics referenced include record 2025 net sales $13.4B, adjusted EBITDA $7.8B (58% margin; Q4 adj. EBITDA $2.3B, 60% margin), 2025 net income $4.3B, 2025 capex $1.3B (part of a >$20.5B decade program), and a Jan‑2026 dividend of $1.00 cash + 0.0085 share stock (payable Feb‑27 to holders of record Feb‑10).Southern Copper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.55B | 13.42B | 11.43B | 9.90B | 10.05B | 10.93B |
| Gross Profit | 8.79B | 7.61B | 5.69B | 4.32B | 4.56B | 6.19B |
| EBITDA | 8.92B | 8.02B | 6.54B | 5.12B | 5.38B | 6.86B |
| Net Income | 4.97B | 4.33B | 3.38B | 2.43B | 2.64B | 3.40B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.93B | 21.38B | 18.71B | 16.73B | 17.28B | 18.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.35B | 4.91B | 3.50B | 1.75B | 2.28B | 3.49B |
| Total Debt | 7.40B | 7.41B | 7.00B | 7.03B | 7.10B | 7.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.07B | 10.28B | 9.48B | 9.24B | 9.13B | 10.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.79B | 11.04B | 9.17B | 7.42B | 8.08B | 8.15B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.28B | 3.43B | 3.39B | 2.56B | 1.85B | 3.40B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.73B | 4.75B | 4.42B | 3.57B | 2.80B | 4.29B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.67B | -1.68B | -673.30M | -1.40B | -666.80M | -972.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.26B | -2.01B | -1.65B | -3.10B | -3.01B | -2.48B |
Southern Copper Technical Analysis
Positive
194.32
Price Trends
187.59
Positive
172.27
Positive
140.64
Positive
Market Momentum
3.30
Negative
59.16
Neutral
71.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 194.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 176.33, above the 50-day MA of 187.59, and above the 200-day MA of 140.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SCCO.
Southern Copper Risk Analysis
Southern Copper disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Southern Copper reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Southern Copper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $122.88B | 9.00 | 25.22% | 0.95% | 25.14% | 73.19% | |
74 Outperform | $207.60B | 6.78 | 21.41% | 3.55% | 1.04% | -9.88% | |
72 Outperform | $151.92B | 22.35 | 45.96% | 2.07% | 21.70% | 36.79% | |
71 Outperform | $87.51B | 24.09 | 14.52% | 1.25% | 5.41% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $178.76B | 6.00 | 16.59% | 4.60% | 7.59% | -13.66% | |
66 Neutral | $70.21B | 8.97 | 7.68% | 10.04% | 4.64% | -51.66% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
SCCO
Southern Copper
183.91
99.84
118.75%
BHP
BHP Group
84.33
38.09
82.37%
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
60.89
23.84
64.35%
NEM
Newmont Mining
115.10
62.95
120.70%
RIO
Rio Tinto
105.51
49.29
87.66%
VALE
Vale SA
16.49
7.87
91.21%
Southern Copper Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Southern Copper Faces Sudden CEO Loss, Leadership Transition
Negative
Apr 13, 2026
Southern Copper Corporation, a major player in the global copper mining industry, announced the unexpected death of its President and Chief Executive Officer, Oscar Gonzalez Rocha, who also served on the Board of Directors. Mr. Gonzalez Rocha pass...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.