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Southern Copper
(NYSE:SCCO)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$204.00
▲(13.78% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/28/26
SCCO scores well primarily due to very strong financial performance—exceptional margins, rising TTM results, and robust free cash flow—supported by a positive earnings call with reaffirmed guidance, record results, and clear project progress/funding. Offsetting factors are neutral-to-mixed technical signals and a valuation that requires continued strong execution, alongside cyclical commodity and project/regulatory risks.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow
Consistent, high free cash flow (FCF) is a durable strength: FCF near $6.0B and ~75% cash conversion of net income provides internal funding for dividends, debt reduction and heavy capex without full reliance on equity markets. That resilience cushions cyclical downturns and funds growth execution over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Commodity price cyclicality
SCCO’s revenue, margins and cash generation remain highly correlated with copper and by-product prices. While current prices drive record metrics, price downturns can rapidly compress EBITDA and free cash flow, straining leverage and capital plans within a 2–6 month horizon and beyond.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow
Consistent, high free cash flow (FCF) is a durable strength: FCF near $6.0B and ~75% cash conversion of net income provides internal funding for dividends, debt reduction and heavy capex without full reliance on equity markets. That resilience cushions cyclical downturns and funds growth execution over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Southern Copper (SCCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$152.44B
Dividend Yield2.03%
Average Volume (3M)1.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.8
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth32.80%
EPS Growth55.92%
CountryUS
Employees16,617
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.83
Shares Outstanding834,328,500
10 Day Avg. Volume1,287,191
30 Day Avg. Volume1,270,818
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.12
Price to Book (P/B)10.89
Price to Sales (P/S)8.96
P/FCF Ratio35.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$154.08Price Target Upside-14.06% Downside
Rating ConsensusStrong Sell
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)7.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$16.79B
Southern Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Southern Copper Corporation engages in mining, exploring, smelting, and refining copper and other minerals in Mexico, the United States, Peru, Brazil, Chile, and Other American countries. The company is involved in the mining, milling, and flotati...
How the Company Makes Money
Southern Copper primarily makes money by selling copper and copper-related products produced from its mining and metallurgical operations. Its largest revenue stream is the sale of copper (including refined copper cathodes and other copper product...
Southern Copper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 21, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a predominantly positive outlook supported by record financial results, strong cash generation, favorable commodity prices, successful financing and tangible progress on key projects. These material positives outweigh operational headwinds including lower ore grades affecting Peruvian production, higher operating costs, by‑product volume declines and localized project risks (illegal miners and equipment dependencies). Management reiterates guidance, reports active project execution, and signals confidence in future growth driven by ongoing capex and project pipeline.Positive Updates
Record Sales and Strong Revenue Growth
Second quarter sales of $4.3 billion, up $1.2 billion or 41% versus Q2 2025, driven by higher copper and by-product prices.
Negative Updates
Copper Production Decline in Q2
Copper production fell 3.5% YoY to 230,662 tons, driven by a 12% drop in Peru due to lower ore grades and recoveries at Toquepala and Cuajone; Mexican operations partially offset with +3.2%.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Sales and Strong Revenue Growth
Second quarter sales of $4.3 billion, up $1.2 billion or 41% versus Q2 2025, driven by higher copper and by-product prices.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Southern Copper reiterated firm 2026 guidance and near‑term project targets: copper production is expected at 917,000 tons in 2026 (about 1% above the initial plan) after Q2 copper output of 230,662 tons (‑3.5% YoY), molybdenum production guided at 27,900 tons (7% above plan), silver at 24 million ounces and zinc at 163,900 tons; Q2 results included $4.3 billion sales (+41% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $2,856 million (Q2 margin 67%; YTD EBITDA $5,569m, margin 65%), net income $1,670m (Q2 margin 39%) and H1 operating cash flow $3,683m (+117% YoY); unit costs reported Q2 operating cash cost before by‑product credits $2.29/lb and including by‑product credits $0.05/lb (total by‑product credits $1,106m or $2.24/lb), and Tia Maria standalone cash cost is estimated at $1.16/lb; capital and financing plans include a decade‑long capex program >$20.5 billion (Peru projects ≈$10.3bn, Mexico ≈$10.2bn), Q2 capex $423m (Q2 ≈25% of quarterly net income) and H1 capex $865m (27% of H1 net income), $1.25bn 10‑year bond issued at 5.35% (demand $4bn, 3.2x oversubscribed) to help fund Tia Maria (total Tia Maria spend ~$1.8bn, $1,101m committed/$693m spent, 42% complete, no delay expected with start‑up penciled for H2 2027), and multi‑year production targets of roughly flat on 2027, ~970,000 tons in 2028, ~1,060,000 tons in 2029 and ~1.6 Mt by 2033–34; a quarterly cash dividend of $1.10 plus a 0.012 share stock dividend was declared (total equivalent ~$3.23/share).Southern Copper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.79B | 13.42B | 11.43B | 9.90B | 10.05B | 10.93B |
| Gross Profit | 9.83B | 7.61B | 5.69B | 4.32B | 4.56B | 6.19B |
| EBITDA | 9.93B | 8.02B | 6.54B | 5.12B | 5.38B | 6.86B |
| Net Income | 5.67B | 4.33B | 3.38B | 2.43B | 2.64B | 3.40B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.13B | 21.38B | 18.71B | 16.73B | 17.28B | 18.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.33B | 4.91B | 3.50B | 1.75B | 2.28B | 3.49B |
| Total Debt | 8.53B | 7.41B | 7.00B | 7.03B | 7.10B | 7.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.42B | 10.28B | 9.48B | 9.24B | 9.13B | 10.09B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.63B | 11.04B | 9.17B | 7.42B | 8.08B | 8.15B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.97B | 3.43B | 3.39B | 2.56B | 1.85B | 3.40B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.74B | 4.75B | 4.42B | 3.57B | 2.80B | 4.29B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.63B | -1.68B | -673.30M | -1.40B | -666.80M | -972.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.78B | -2.01B | -1.65B | -3.10B | -3.01B | -2.48B |
Southern Copper Technical Analysis
Positive
179.29
Price Trends
182.03
Positive
178.68
Positive
168.81
Positive
Market Momentum
3.50
Negative
58.10
Neutral
82.48
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SCCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 179.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 182.75, below the 50-day MA of 182.03, and above the 200-day MA of 168.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.48 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SCCO.
Southern Copper Risk Analysis
Southern Copper disclosed 32 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Southern Copper reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Southern Copper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $152.44B | 26.75 | 49.38% | 2.06% | 32.80% | 55.92% | |
74 Outperform | $215.49B | 20.77 | 21.41% | 3.18% | 1.04% | -9.88% | |
73 Outperform | $98.74B | 11.79 | 25.02% | 1.09% | 23.61% | 42.29% | |
70 Outperform | $90.03B | 30.85 | 15.26% | 0.96% | -1.26% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $165.87B | 13.02 | 16.59% | 4.41% | 14.26% | 17.02% | |
62 Neutral | $62.65B | 22.11 | 7.68% | 5.23% | 4.64% | -51.66% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
SCCO
Southern Copper
193.03
101.36
110.56%
BHP
BHP Group
87.90
37.88
75.72%
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
68.18
27.81
68.90%
NEM
Newmont Mining
105.43
37.09
54.27%
RIO
Rio Tinto
99.65
41.92
72.60%
VALE
Vale SA
14.72
5.46
58.91%
Southern Copper Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Southern Copper Shareholders Endorse Governance and Board Slate
Positive
Jul 18, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 29, 2026, Southern Copper Corporation reported a high level of shareholder participation, with 804,192,988 shares voted, representing about 97.35% of outstanding eligible common stock. Stockholders...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Southern Copper raises $1.25 billion for Tía María
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
On June 24, 2026, Southern Peru Copper Corporation’s Peruvian branch announced it had raised US$1.25 billion via a bond offering in New York, with a 5.35% coupon and maturity in 2036, to fund the Tía María copper project. The mine,...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Southern Copper Completes New 2036 Fixed-Rate Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
On June 25, 2026, Southern Copper Corporation announced it had completed an offering of 5.350% notes due 2036, formalizing the issuance under a seventh supplemental indenture with Computershare Trust Company, National Association, as trustee. The ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Southern Copper Issues $1.25 Billion Notes for Growth
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 16, 2026, Southern Copper Corporation priced a US$1.25 billion offering of 5.350% senior unsecured notes due 2036 in an underwritten, registered public transaction expected to close around June 24, 2026. The notes will be general unsecured...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.