Newmont Mining (NEM) AI Stock Analysis

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Newmont Mining

(NYSE:NEM)

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Outperform 80 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:80Outperform

Price Target:

$137.00

▲(21.94% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, improving free cash flow, and low leverage) and a very constructive earnings call (record cash generation, near-zero net debt, rating upgrade, and strong shareholder returns). Technicals are supportive via a clear uptrend but are tempered by overbought momentum signals, while valuation appears reasonable but with a relatively low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Sustained record free cash flow ($1.6B Q3; $4.5B YTD) demonstrates durable cash conversion that funds capex, exploration and returns. Reliable FCF reduces reliance on external financing, supports project funding and buybacks, and enhances resilience across commodity cycles.

Low leverage and credit upgrade

Near-zero net debt and a Moody’s A3 upgrade materially improve financial flexibility and lower funding costs. Conservative leverage and strong ROE provide optionality for investments, acquisitions or shareholder returns while boosting balance-sheet resilience against downturns.

New long-life mine production

Commercial production at Ahafo North adds a long‑life, profitable asset to the portfolio, extending reserve life and diversifying geographic supply. Multi‑year mine life supports medium‑term production visibility and more predictable cash flows for planning and reinvestment.

Negative Factors

Site-specific production volatility

Operational setbacks and grade shifts at key mines create persistent site-level volatility that can depress annual output and raise unit costs. Such mine-specific variability undermines predictability of production and cash flow, making multi-year guidance and margin planning harder.

Revenue linked cost escalation

A structural linkage between higher metal prices and elevated royalties, taxes and profit sharing means top-line gains aren’t fully retained. This reduces the sensitivity of net margins to price rallies, complicating long-term margin sustainability and forecasting under different price scenarios.

Earnings volatility history

Despite strong margins and ROE, episodic net income volatility (notably a 2023 loss) signals vulnerability to impairments, one-offs or metal-cycle swings. This undermines earnings predictability, complicates capital allocation decisions and increases uncertainty for multi‑year cash flow modeling.

Newmont Mining (NEM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$122.60B

Dividend Yield0.95%

Average Volume (3M)8.28M

Price to Earnings (P/E)17.5

Beta (1Y)0.81

Revenue Growth26.25%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees22,200

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength58

IndustryGold

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.71

Shares Outstanding1,091,263,000

10 Day Avg. Volume11,192,960

30 Day Avg. Volume8,281,934

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.07

Price to Book (P/B)1.43

Price to Sales (P/S)2.30

P/FCF Ratio14.41

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00

Enterprise Value/Revenue5.77

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.65

Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.17

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$134.57

Price Target Upside19.78% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering9

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Newmont Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNewmont Corporation engages in the production and exploration of gold. It also explores for copper, silver, zinc, and lead. The company has operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and Ghana. As of December 31, 2021, it had proven and probable gold reserves of 92.8 million ounces and land position of 62,800 square kilometers. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes MoneyNewmont generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of gold. The company operates numerous mines across its global portfolio, which allows it to extract gold and other metals. The primary revenue stream comes from the sale of gold, which is influenced by market prices. Additionally, Newmont earns revenue from the sale of by-products such as copper and silver. The company also engages in hedging strategies to manage price volatility and lock in revenues. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other mining companies and local governments can enhance operational efficiency and expand resource access. Furthermore, Newmont invests in technology and sustainable practices to reduce costs and improve the profitability of its mining operations.

Newmont Mining Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Attributable Sales Breakdown

Attributable Sales Breakdown
Shows the distribution of sales that can be directly linked to the company, highlighting core revenue sources and key operational areas driving financial performance.

Chart InsightsNewmont Mining's gold sales have shown a steady recovery since 2023, with a notable uptick in Q4 2024, aligning with the company's strong operational performance and strategic divestments. The recent earnings call highlights robust cash flow and successful debt reduction, reinforcing financial stability. However, potential challenges from global tariff volatility and anticipated higher costs in Q2 could impact future margins. The company remains committed to its capital allocation strategy and key project advancements, which are crucial for sustaining growth and shareholder returns.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Newmont Mining Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 23, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Newmont's earnings call highlighted strong financial and operational performance, with record cash flows and substantial progress in asset divestment, cost management, and new mine production. Despite some production challenges and increased costs due to higher gold prices, the company's strategic initiatives and shareholder returns position it well for future growth.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Cash Flow and Financial Performance

Generated record third-quarter cash flow of $1.6 billion, reaching an all-time annual record of $4.5 billion with one quarter still remaining. Newmont generated $3.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income of $1.71 per share for the third quarter, a 20% increase from the second quarter and more than double last year's results.

Successful Asset Divestment and Balance Sheet Strength

Received nearly $640 million in net cash proceeds from equity and asset sales since the start of the third quarter. Ended the quarter in a near-zero debt position after retiring $2 billion of debt. Moody’s upgraded Newmont’s issuer credit rating to A3 with a stable outlook.

Operational Achievements and New Mine Production

Declared commercial production at the new Ahafo North mine, which expands the footprint in Ghana and adds profitable gold production over an initial 13 years of mine life. Significant progress on cost discipline and productivity has improved 2025 guidance for several cost metrics.

Shareholder Returns and Cost Management

Returned $823 million to shareholders through stable dividend and share repurchases since the last earnings call. Reduced 2025 cost guidance for G&A, Exploration, and Advanced Projects by approximately 15%.

Negative Updates

Production Challenges at Specific Mines

Peñasquito delivered a lower proportion of gold production, and Ahafo South saw a shift to lower grades from the Awonsu open pit. At Lihir, preparation for future higher-grade production is underway, indicating current production is not at peak levels.

Impact of Higher Gold Prices on Costs

While higher gold prices are beneficial, they also lead to increased costs from profit sharing, royalties, and production taxes, which offset some of the cost savings achieved.

Company Guidance

During Newmont's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported significant achievements and updated guidance metrics. Newmont generated a record cash flow of $1.6 billion in the third quarter, contributing to a year-to-date total of $4.5 billion in free cash flow, despite one quarter remaining in the fiscal year. The company also successfully completed its asset divestment program, resulting in $640 million in net cash proceeds since the start of the third quarter and over $3.5 billion for the year. In terms of production, the third quarter was consistent with the second quarter, with notable improvements at Brucejack and Cerro Negro. The company also maintained its 2025 production and unit cost outlook, with a focus on cost discipline and productivity improvements. Newmont ended the quarter with a near zero net debt position after retiring $2 billion of debt, and Moody's upgraded its issuer credit rating to A3 with a stable outlook. Additionally, Newmont returned $823 million to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases since the last earnings call. Looking ahead, Newmont expects its 2026 gold production to be at the lower end of its guidance range due to planned mine sequencing and continues to focus on reducing costs and increasing shareholder value.

Newmont Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability (TTM gross margin 45.63%, net margin 33.82%) with solid revenue growth (TTM +3.81%) and improving cash generation (TTM FCF +15.03%, OCF/NI 1.81). Balance sheet is conservative (debt-to-equity 0.17) with strong ROE (22.72%), though historical net income volatility (including a 2023 loss) adds some earnings stability risk.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Newmont Mining's income statement shows strong profitability with a TTM gross profit margin of 45.63% and a net profit margin of 33.82%. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 3.81% increase in the TTM period. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 48.96% and 62.36%, respectively, indicating efficient operations. However, past volatility in net income, such as the negative net income in 2023, suggests some risk in earnings stability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17 in the TTM period, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity is strong at 22.72%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a stable capital structure. However, fluctuations in debt levels over the years highlight potential risks in financial stability.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trajectory with a 15.03% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.81 indicates strong cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.66 suggests a good conversion of earnings into cash. Despite past periods of negative free cash flow growth, recent improvements enhance the company's liquidity position.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	21.25B	18.56B	11.78B	11.95B	12.19B	11.42B
Gross Profit	9.70B	6.42B	1.17B	2.14B	2.38B	3.55B
EBITDA	13.37B	7.87B	1.86B	3.28B	5.54B	6.10B
Net Income	7.19B	3.35B	-2.52B	-459.00M	1.17B	2.83B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	54.69B	56.35B	55.51B	38.48B	40.56B	41.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.97B	3.64B	3.02B	3.76B	5.07B	5.83B
Total Debt	5.65B	8.97B	9.44B	6.13B	6.30B	6.70B
Total Liabilities	21.28B	26.24B	26.30B	18.95B	18.70B	17.49B
Stockholders Equity	33.23B	29.93B	29.03B	19.35B	22.02B	23.01B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	6.12B	2.96B	97.00M	1.09B	2.63B	3.58B
Operating Cash Flow	9.22B	6.36B	2.76B	3.22B	4.28B	4.88B
Investing Cash Flow	718.00M	-2.70B	-1.00B	-2.98B	-1.87B	91.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.45B	-2.95B	-1.60B	-2.36B	-2.96B	-1.68B

Newmont Mining Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price112.35

Price Trends

50DMA

103.11

Positive

100DMA

93.85

Positive

200DMA

76.63

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

6.15

Positive

RSI

48.41

Neutral

STOCH

56.28

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NEM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 112.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 115.80, above the 50-day MA of 103.11, and above the 200-day MA of 76.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 6.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NEM.

Newmont Mining Risk Analysis

Newmont Mining disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Newmont Mining reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Newmont Mining Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NEM	80 Outperform	$122.60B	17.46	22.84%	0.95%	26.25%	―
HMY	78 Outperform	$14.18B	16.75	32.05%	0.87%	29.08%	72.12%
GFI	77 Outperform	$47.11B	23.80	35.09%	1.51%	49.62%	195.39%
HL	75 Outperform	$15.09B	74.18	8.88%	0.07%	45.61%	―
RGLD	75 Outperform	$22.22B	36.10	14.90%	0.77%	28.11%	66.85%
AU	69 Neutral	$46.89B	39.79	―	2.82%	26.43%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NEM

Newmont Mining

112.35

69.95

164.98%

GFI

Gold Fields

50.12

33.14

195.22%

HMY

Harmony Gold Mining

21.34

9.66

82.64%

Hecla Mining Company

22.52

16.77

291.65%

RGLD

Royal Gold

263.31

123.78

88.71%

Anglogold Ashanti PLC

92.87

63.17

212.69%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 21, 2026