Newmont Mining (NEM)
NYSE:NEM
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Newmont Mining
(NYSE:NEM)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$120.00
▲(3.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial footing (strong balance sheet and improving cash generation) and strong technical uptrend signals. It is tempered by earnings/data volatility and interpretability risk in the financials, plus near-term operational/JV and sequencing headwinds outlined on the earnings call; valuation is neutral with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Modest leverage and an extremely low net-debt posture in 2025 provide durable financial flexibility. This supports funding sustaining and development capital, absorbing commodity cyclicality, and executing buybacks/dividends without forced asset sales, making capital allocation decisions more stable over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
JV operational / legal risk
An active default notice in a major JV creates enduring governance and operational uncertainty. Disputes can delay production, capex decisions, or operating plans at scale in Nevada, potentially reducing attributable ounces and cash flows while management pursues remediation or renegotiation over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
Modest leverage and an extremely low net-debt posture in 2025 provide durable financial flexibility. This supports funding sustaining and development capital, absorbing commodity cyclicality, and executing buybacks/dividends without forced asset sales, making capital allocation decisions more stable over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Newmont Mining (NEM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$131.52B
Dividend Yield0.95%
Average Volume (3M)10.72M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.6
Beta (1Y)1.01
Revenue Growth26.25%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees44,100
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.52
Shares Outstanding1,087,874,300
10 Day Avg. Volume7,759,888
30 Day Avg. Volume10,718,948
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)3.26
Price to Sales (P/S)5.00
P/FCF Ratio15.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.55
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$157.63Price Target Upside35.30% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)9.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$28.38B
Newmont Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Newmont Corporation engages in the production and exploration of gold. It also explores for copper, silver, zinc, and lead. The company has operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentin...
How the Company Makes Money
Newmont makes money mainly by producing and selling metals, led by gold. Revenue is recognized from the sale of mined and processed metal (typically as doré bars for gold/silver and concentrates or other saleable forms for copper and certain by-pr...
Newmont Mining Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Attributable Sales Breakdown
Shows the distribution of sales that can be directly linked to the company, highlighting core revenue sources and key operational areas driving financial performance.
Shows the distribution of sales that can be directly linked to the company, highlighting core revenue sources and key operational areas driving financial performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNewmont Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, record cash generation ($7.3B FCF in 2025), disciplined cost and capital management, tangible exploration success and clear project progress (Ahafo North commissioning, Lihir funding, Cadia and Tanami advancement). Management introduced an enhanced capital allocation framework with a sustainable dividend and ratable buybacks, signaling shareholder returns and balance-sheet resilience (net cash target $1B ± $2B and minimum $5B cash). Offsetting these positives are significant near-term headwinds and risks: a fatality and paused shaft work at Tanami, unresolved JV operational issues with Nevada Gold Mines (notice of default), a planned 2026 production trough (5.3M oz), large tax payments depressing Q1 2026 cash flow, reserve reclassifications at Yanacocha and certain project deferments. Overall, the message is one of confidence in long-term optionality and capital return while acknowledging short-term sequencing, JV and safety risks.Positive Updates
Achieved Full-Year Guidance and Strong Production
Met 2025 full-year guidance with total production of 5.7 million ounces of gold (core portfolio), 28 million ounces of silver and 135,000 tonnes of copper; 2026 guidance set at 5.3 million attributable ounces (3.9M managed, 1.4M non-managed), representing a planned year-over-year sequencing trough (~7.0% lower vs. 2025).
Negative Updates
Fatality at Tanami and Operational Safety Impact
A tragic fatality occurred at Tanami (employee Matthew Middlebrook); an investigation is underway. Shaft infrastructure construction was paused pending the investigation, although operating activities resumed after a short shutdown; safety and project timing risk noted.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Achieved Full-Year Guidance and Strong Production
Met 2025 full-year guidance with total production of 5.7 million ounces of gold (core portfolio), 28 million ounces of silver and 135,000 tonnes of copper; 2026 guidance set at 5.3 million attributable ounces (3.9M managed, 1.4M non-managed), representing a planned year-over-year sequencing trough (~7.0% lower vs. 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call Newmont provided high‑confidence 2026 guidance and a clear capital‑allocation framework: total attributable production is guided to 5.3 million ounces (3.9M from managed operations, 1.4M non‑managed) with ~52% weighted to H2 and a longer‑term target of ~6M oz gold and 150,000 t copper per year; by‑product all‑in sustaining costs are expected to be ~ $1,680/oz (assumes $4,500/oz gold, $60/oz silver, $5/lb copper) — roughly $6/oz higher AISC for every $100/oz increase in gold — with a comparable co‑product AISC cited around $1,935/oz and CAS ~ $1,430/oz; 2026 sustaining capital is ~ $1.95B (≈52% H2, includes a $150M timing shift from 2025), development capital ~ $1.4B (≈55% H2), exploration/advanced projects ~ $525M, and reclamation ~ $850M (expected to normalize to $300–$400M by 2028); management expects >$1B of tax payments in Q1 (pressuring Q1 free cash flow), will pay a sustainable $1.1B/year dividend (Q4 declared $0.26/share, +4%), maintain a net cash target of $1B ± $2B with a $5B minimum cash balance, and deploy excess cash to ratable share buybacks (currently $2.4B remaining on a $6B program) after meeting portfolio and balance‑sheet priorities (to date $4.5B of divestiture proceeds realized and $3.4B returned to shareholders in 2025).Newmont Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 22.10B | 18.56B | 11.78B | 11.95B | 12.19B |
| Gross Profit | 11.00B | 6.42B | 1.17B | 2.14B | 2.38B |
| EBITDA | 13.12B | 7.87B | 1.86B | 3.28B | 5.54B |
| Net Income | 7.08B | 3.35B | -2.52B | -459.00M | 1.17B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 57.12B | 56.35B | 55.51B | 38.48B | 40.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.65B | 3.64B | 3.02B | 3.76B | 5.07B |
| Total Debt | 474.00M | 8.97B | 9.44B | 6.13B | 6.30B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.08B | 26.24B | 26.30B | 18.95B | 18.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.87B | 29.93B | 29.03B | 19.35B | 22.02B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.30B | 2.96B | 97.00M | 1.09B | 2.63B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.33B | 6.36B | 2.76B | 3.22B | 4.28B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 739.00M | -2.70B | -1.00B | -2.98B | -1.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.17B | -2.95B | -1.60B | -2.36B | -2.96B |
Newmont Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
116.50
Price Trends
115.06
Positive
108.73
Positive
91.59
Positive
Market Momentum
1.26
Negative
55.81
Neutral
83.05
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NEM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 116.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.21, above the 50-day MA of 115.06, and above the 200-day MA of 91.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.05 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NEM.
Newmont Mining Risk Analysis
Newmont Mining disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Newmont Mining reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Newmont Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $55.17B | 16.43 | 35.18% | 2.82% | 26.43% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $43.99B | 10.92 | 50.82% | 1.51% | 49.62% | 195.39% | |
73 Outperform | $10.49B | 5.53 | 32.51% | 0.87% | 29.08% | 72.12% | |
72 Outperform | $131.52B | 15.59 | 21.72% | 0.95% | 26.25% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $13.05B | 38.89 | 13.65% | 0.07% | 45.61% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $22.63B | 33.10 | 10.92% | 0.77% | 28.11% | 66.85% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
NEM
Newmont Mining
116.50
62.62
116.23%
GFI
Gold Fields
48.96
25.83
111.65%
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
16.55
-0.73
-4.23%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
19.27
13.39
227.78%
RGLD
Royal Gold
264.47
81.08
44.21%
AU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
109.12
67.20
160.29%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.