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Newmont Mining (NEM)
NYSE:NEM
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Newmont Mining
(NYSE:NEM)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$139.00
▲(9.05% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial footing (strong balance sheet and improving cash generation) and strong technical uptrend signals. It is tempered by earnings/data volatility and interpretability risk in the financials, plus near-term operational/JV and sequencing headwinds outlined on the earnings call; valuation is neutral with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Modest leverage and a large equity base reduce refinancing and solvency risk for a capital-intensive miner. Improved ROE from negative to strongly positive recently indicates earnings can cover capital demands, supporting sustained investment, dividends, and resilience through commodity cycles.
Cash generation / Free cash flow
Material and sustained free cash flow provides internal funding for sustaining/development capital, exploration and dividend/buyback commitments. Strong FCF strengthens balance-sheet targets, funds project execution without heavy external financing, and enables disciplined capital allocation over cycles.
Large reserve base & exploration success
A very large reserve and resource base plus recent reserve additions and high‑grade discoveries underpin multi-decade production optionality. This geological scale supports long-term output, provides flexibility on sequencing, and limits structural downside to the company’s core production profile.
Negative Factors
Operational safety and project pause
A fatality and paused shaft work at a major expansion create lasting operational, regulatory and reputational risks. Delays to shaft completion can push out low‑cost production, raise unit costs, increase contingency spend and complicate project schedules and stakeholder relations.
JV operational & governance risk
Unresolved disputes and a default notice in a cornerstone JV create governance uncertainty and potential production shortfalls. Prolonged JV friction can delay capital projects, reduce realized ounces, and create legal/operational costs that persist beyond a single reporting period.
Reserve reclassification & project deferments
Reclassifying reserves and deprioritizing long‑lead projects reduces near-term growth optionality and raises uncertainty about future production. Deferred projects shrink the visible pipeline, increasing reliance on existing assets and exploration success to sustain long-term output and cash generation.
Newmont Mining (NEM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$134.99B
Dividend Yield0.95%
Average Volume (3M)9.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.4
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth26.25%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees22,200
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.52
Shares Outstanding1,087,874,300
10 Day Avg. Volume7,900,868
30 Day Avg. Volume9,767,524
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)3.26
Price to Sales (P/S)4.87
P/FCF Ratio15.13
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$145.59Price Target Upside14.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)9.51
Revenue Forecast (FY)$27.26B
Newmont Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNewmont Corporation engages in the production and exploration of gold. It also explores for copper, silver, zinc, and lead. The company has operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia, and Ghana. As of December 31, 2021, it had proven and probable gold reserves of 92.8 million ounces and land position of 62,800 square kilometers. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneyNewmont generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of gold. The company operates numerous mines across its global portfolio, which allows it to extract gold and other metals. The primary revenue stream comes from the sale of gold, which is influenced by market prices. Additionally, Newmont earns revenue from the sale of by-products such as copper and silver. The company also engages in hedging strategies to manage price volatility and lock in revenues. Strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other mining companies and local governments can enhance operational efficiency and expand resource access. Furthermore, Newmont invests in technology and sustainable practices to reduce costs and improve the profitability of its mining operations.
Newmont Mining Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Attributable Sales Breakdown
Shows the distribution of sales that can be directly linked to the company, highlighting core revenue sources and key operational areas driving financial performance.
Shows the distribution of sales that can be directly linked to the company, highlighting core revenue sources and key operational areas driving financial performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNewmont Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, record cash generation ($7.3B FCF in 2025), disciplined cost and capital management, tangible exploration success and clear project progress (Ahafo North commissioning, Lihir funding, Cadia and Tanami advancement). Management introduced an enhanced capital allocation framework with a sustainable dividend and ratable buybacks, signaling shareholder returns and balance-sheet resilience (net cash target $1B ± $2B and minimum $5B cash). Offsetting these positives are significant near-term headwinds and risks: a fatality and paused shaft work at Tanami, unresolved JV operational issues with Nevada Gold Mines (notice of default), a planned 2026 production trough (5.3M oz), large tax payments depressing Q1 2026 cash flow, reserve reclassifications at Yanacocha and certain project deferments. Overall, the message is one of confidence in long-term optionality and capital return while acknowledging short-term sequencing, JV and safety risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Achieved Full-Year Guidance and Strong Production
Met 2025 full-year guidance with total production of 5.7 million ounces of gold (core portfolio), 28 million ounces of silver and 135,000 tonnes of copper; 2026 guidance set at 5.3 million attributable ounces (3.9M managed, 1.4M non-managed), representing a planned year-over-year sequencing trough (~7.0% lower vs. 2025).
Record Free Cash Flow and Strong Cash Generation
Generated record free cash flow of $2.8 billion in Q4 2025 and $7.3 billion for the full year 2025.
Capital Returns and Enhanced Dividend Framework
Returned $3.4 billion to shareholders in 2025 via dividends and share repurchases; introduced an enhanced capital allocation framework with a sustainable cash dividend commitment of $1.1 billion per year and a 4% increase in the quarterly common dividend (Q4 dividend declared at $0.26/share).
Balance Sheet and Divestiture Progress
Generated $4.5 billion in proceeds to date from noncore divestitures and maintain a resilient balance sheet framework (net cash target of $1B ± $2B and a minimum cash balance of $5B). $2.4 billion remains on the current $6 billion buyback authorization.
Operational and Cost Discipline
Achieved absolute and unit cost guidance for 2025; implemented cost and productivity initiatives estimated to reduce AISC by more than $100/oz versus a no-savings scenario. G&A guidance for 2026 improved by $100 million, a 21% improvement.
Ahafo North in Commercial Production and Project Cost Discipline
Ahafo North reached commercial production in 2025, adding over 300,000 oz to the portfolio; total Ahafo North capital spend is expected at the lower end of guidance (~$950 million).
Large Reserve and Resource Base
Reported gold reserves of 118 million ounces and resources of 149 million ounces (total ~40 years of production). Increased reserve price assumption from $1,700/oz to $2,000/oz (~17.6% increase) while noting the assumption remains conservative versus spot.
Exploration Success and Reserve Additions
Converted ~740,000 oz to reserves at Brucejack and reported a significant high-grade discovery (Dozer zone; e.g., 20.9 meters at 154 g/t). Ahafo South added ~2 million ounces to resource in 2025 and expects ~4–5 million ounces of new gold reserves in 2026 from near-mine drilling.
Project Execution Progress
Progressed major projects: Tanami Expansion 2 (1.5 km shaft lining complete), Cadia panel caves advancing (PC2-3 cave completion targeted Q4 2026; first drawbell fired at PC1-2), full funds approval for Lihir nearshore barrier unlocking >5 million ounces low-cost Kapit material, and Red Chris feasibility targeted for H2 2026.
2026 Cost and Capital Guidance
Provided 2026 guidance: by-product AISC ~ $1,680/oz (assumes $4,500/oz gold), sustaining capital ~ $1.95 billion (after $150M timing shift), development capital ~ $1.4 billion, exploration/advanced projects ~ $525 million, and reclamation ~ $850 million (expected to normalize to $300–$400M by 2028).
Negative Updates
Fatality at Tanami and Operational Safety Impact
A tragic fatality occurred at Tanami (employee Matthew Middlebrook); an investigation is underway. Shaft infrastructure construction was paused pending the investigation, although operating activities resumed after a short shutdown; safety and project timing risk noted.
Nevada Gold Mines JV Operational Issues and Legal Notice
Lower-than-expected ounces from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo (as reported by the managing partner). Newmont issued a notice of default to its Nevada Gold Mines JV partner (Barrick) related to operational performance, creating unresolved JV risk and potential governance/operational uncertainty.
2026 Production Trough and Sequencing Impact
2026 is expected to be a trough year (guidance 5.3M oz) driven by planned mine sequencing (Ahafo South, Peñasquito, Cadia) and impacts from December Boddington bushfires; recovery is underway but near-term production and cash flow are affected.
Short-Term Cash Flow Headwinds in Q1 2026
Q1 2026 free cash flow expected to be lower than Q4 2025 due to over $1 billion of tax payments (accrued in 2025) and normal working capital seasonality.
Reserve Reclassification and Project Deprioritization
Approximately 4.5 million ounces at Yanacocha were reclassified from reserve to resource following the indefinite deferral of the Yanacocha Sulfides project. Management signaled deprioritization or deferment of several large, long-lead projects (e.g., Yanacocha Sulfides) which reduces near-term optionality from those assets.
Sustaining Capital Timing and Inventory Changes
A $150 million timing shift from 2025 to 2026 increased sustaining capital to ~$1.95B; inventory and sequencing changes (e.g., Peñasquito stockpile treatment, Lihir stockpile not being added, Yanacocha mining changes) have contributed to near-term cost/volume volatility.
Project and Portfolio Uncertainties
Several longer-lead or previously discussed projects remain under review or deferred (market commentary referenced a list of projects not prioritized this decade), and ongoing feasibility / design work (e.g., Red Chris design improvements after decline failure) introduce timing and capital allocation uncertainty.
Company Guidance
On the call Newmont provided high‑confidence 2026 guidance and a clear capital‑allocation framework: total attributable production is guided to 5.3 million ounces (3.9M from managed operations, 1.4M non‑managed) with ~52% weighted to H2 and a longer‑term target of ~6M oz gold and 150,000 t copper per year; by‑product all‑in sustaining costs are expected to be ~ $1,680/oz (assumes $4,500/oz gold, $60/oz silver, $5/lb copper) — roughly $6/oz higher AISC for every $100/oz increase in gold — with a comparable co‑product AISC cited around $1,935/oz and CAS ~ $1,430/oz; 2026 sustaining capital is ~ $1.95B (≈52% H2, includes a $150M timing shift from 2025), development capital ~ $1.4B (≈55% H2), exploration/advanced projects ~ $525M, and reclamation ~ $850M (expected to normalize to $300–$400M by 2028); management expects >$1B of tax payments in Q1 (pressuring Q1 free cash flow), will pay a sustainable $1.1B/year dividend (Q4 declared $0.26/share, +4%), maintain a net cash target of $1B ± $2B with a $5B minimum cash balance, and deploy excess cash to ratable share buybacks (currently $2.4B remaining on a $6B program) after meeting portfolio and balance‑sheet priorities (to date $4.5B of divestiture proceeds realized and $3.4B returned to shareholders in 2025).Newmont Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Balance sheet strength is a clear positive (modest leverage and improved ROE), and cash generation improved meaningfully with strong operating cash flow and accelerating free cash flow in the last two years. Offsetting this, profitability and growth have been volatile (losses in 2022–2023), and 2025 reporting inconsistencies (revenue/margin fields recorded as zero despite large profit metrics) reduce confidence in trend quality.Income Statement
Profitability and growth have been highly volatile. After losses in 2022–2023, 2024 rebounded strongly with healthy margins and solid revenue growth. However, the 2025 annual report shows revenue and margin fields recorded as zero (despite large EBIT/EBITDA and net income), which materially reduces confidence in trend quality and suggests one-time items or data inconsistency; overall earnings power looks improved but not yet stable.54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is a clear strength: leverage is modest to moderate in most years and appears extremely low in 2025, supported by a large equity base. Return on equity swung from negative in 2022–2023 to solidly positive in 2024 and very strong in 2025, indicating improved profitability versus the capital base. Key risk is the magnitude of year-to-year swings in returns, which points to cyclical/one-off impacts typical in the sector.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation improved meaningfully: operating cash flow rose sharply from 2023 to 2024 and further in 2025, and free cash flow growth is strong in the last two years. That said, cash conversion was weak in 2023 (very low free cash flow relative to results), and 2024 free cash flow covered less than half of net income, implying heavier reinvestment or working-capital/capex drag before the 2025 step-up.71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 22.67B | 18.56B | 11.78B | 11.95B | 12.19B |
| Gross Profit | 14.58B | 6.42B | 1.17B | 2.14B | 2.38B |
| EBITDA | 14.09B | 7.87B | 1.86B | 3.28B | 5.54B |
| Net Income | 7.17B | 3.35B | -2.52B | -459.00M | 1.17B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 57.12B | 56.35B | 55.51B | 38.48B | 40.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.65B | 3.64B | 3.02B | 3.76B | 5.07B |
| Total Debt | 474.00M | 8.97B | 9.44B | 6.13B | 6.30B |
| Total Liabilities | 23.08B | 26.24B | 26.30B | 18.95B | 18.70B |
| Stockholders Equity | 33.87B | 29.93B | 29.03B | 19.35B | 22.02B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.30B | 2.96B | 97.00M | 1.09B | 2.63B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.33B | 6.36B | 2.76B | 3.22B | 4.28B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 739.00M | -2.70B | -1.00B | -2.98B | -1.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.17B | -2.95B | -1.60B | -2.36B | -2.96B |
Newmont Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
127.47
Price Trends
114.25
Positive
100.93
Positive
82.72
Positive
Market Momentum
3.20
Positive
59.46
Neutral
77.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NEM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 127.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 120.80, above the 50-day MA of 114.25, and above the 200-day MA of 82.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NEM.
Newmont Mining Risk Analysis
Newmont Mining disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Newmont Mining reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Newmont Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $13.49B | 16.92 | 32.05% | 0.87% | 29.08% | 72.12% | |
78 Outperform | $62.96B | 24.03 | ― | 2.82% | 26.43% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $49.73B | 14.23 | 52.47% | 1.51% | 49.62% | 195.39% | |
74 Outperform | $24.43B | 42.97 | 9.07% | 0.77% | 28.11% | 66.85% | |
72 Outperform | $134.99B | 19.41 | 22.21% | 0.95% | 26.25% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $15.85B | 48.26 | 13.89% | 0.07% | 45.61% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
NEM
Newmont Mining
127.47
85.35
202.64%
GFI
Gold Fields
58.52
40.97
233.39%
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
22.55
12.70
128.89%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
24.54
19.42
379.30%
RGLD
Royal Gold
294.38
148.79
102.19%
AU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
126.07
98.02
349.45%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.