Royal Gold (RGLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $22.44B
• Dividend Yield: 0.77%
• Average Volume (3M): 875.26K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 36.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: 28.11%
• EPS Growth: 66.85%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 2.06
• Shares Outstanding: 84,398,060
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,148,158
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 875,265
• PEG Ratio: 0.68
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 12.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 20.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 26.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 24.52
• 1Y Price Target: $290.43
• Price Target Upside: 9.23% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 12.12
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.90B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $292.00 ▲(9.82% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance (high margins and solid operating cash flow) and bullish technical trend vs. major moving averages. It is held back by negative TTM free cash flow and higher leverage, plus a demanding valuation (high P/E and low dividend yield). Earnings-call takeaways were broadly positive on results and portfolio expansion, but with clear debt and delivery-timing risks.

Positive Factors

High Profitability and Margins

Royal Gold's royalty/stream model delivers structurally high gross and net margins, reflecting minimal operating cost exposure. Durable high margins support strong return on equity, allow sustained distributions and reinvestment, and provide resilience versus producer cost inflation.

Strong Operating Cash Generation

Consistent, sizable operating cash flow from royalties and streams underpins earnings quality and funds dividends, acquisitions and debt servicing. Reliable cash generation is a durable strength that supports growth without relying solely on external financing.

Portfolio Scale and Asset-Life Extension

A near-decade mine life extension at Royal Gold's largest asset materially lengthens contracted production, de-risks reserve replacement, and increases long-term predictable cash flows. Combined with recent strategic acquisitions, this raises portfolio duration and diversification.

Negative Factors

Deeply Negative Free Cash Flow

Material negative free cash flow reflects heavy acquisition and cash outlays and can erode liquidity if prolonged. Persistently negative FCF reduces the firm's buffer for debt repayment or discretionary distributions and may force financing or asset sales to restore balance.

Elevated Debt from Acquisition Funding

Leverage rose sharply to finance recent transactions, increasing interest and refinancing risk. While leverage remains manageable historically, the jump from low-debt levels reduces financial flexibility and must be repaid as scheduled to avoid constraining future M&A and dividend capacity.

Operator and Delivery Timing Risk

As a non-operator, Royal Gold is exposed to third-party timing and operational execution. Deferred deliveries and operator-driven production variability can create durable volatility in revenue recognition and cash flow timing, complicating forecasting and debt repayment planning.

Royal Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests. It focuses on acquiring stream and royalty interests or to finance projects that are in production or in development stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests, which primarily consists of gold, silver, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, and cobalt. As of June 30, 2022, the Company owned interests in 185 properties on five continents, including interests on 41 producing mines and 19 development stage projects. Its stream and royalty interests on properties are located in the United States, Canada, Chile, the Dominican Republic, Australia, Africa, Mexico, and internationally. Royal Gold, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Royal Gold generates revenue through its streaming and royalty agreements with mining companies. Under these agreements, Royal Gold provides capital to mining companies for the development of mining projects in exchange for a percentage of the mine's future production at a fixed, below-market price, or a percentage of revenue. The company earns income primarily from the sale of the metals it receives through these agreements at market prices, which can be significantly higher than the fixed costs. Additionally, Royal Gold benefits from increases in metal prices and production levels at the mines in which it holds interests. Key revenue streams for the company include royalties, which are calculated as a percentage of revenue from the mine, and streams, which involve purchasing a portion of the mine's production at a discounted rate. The company also seeks to diversify its portfolio by entering into agreements with multiple mining operators across different geographic locations and maintaining a focus on high-quality, long-life assets. Significant partnerships with established mining companies and a disciplined approach to investment further contribute to Royal Gold's earnings and growth potential.

Royal Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

High profitability and improving revenue/earnings trends support a strong financial profile, backed by solid operating cash flow. The main offsets are deeply negative TTM free cash flow and a rise in debt versus prior low-debt periods, which increase monitoring risk for near-term flexibility.

Income Statement

Profitability is a major strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows very high gross and net profitability (gross margin ~76%, net margin ~56%) with strong operating profitability as well. Revenue has re-accelerated in TTM (~7.5% growth) after a slower 2024, and earnings have expanded meaningfully versus prior years. Weaknesses include some margin volatility across the annual history (notably swings in gross margin), and a few years show inconsistencies in reported operating margin data, which reduces clean trend visibility.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid, supported by a large equity base (TTM equity ~$3.41B) and moderate leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.23). Returns on equity have improved into TTM (~14.7%), indicating better profit generation on the capital base. The main watch-out is that total debt rose versus several prior periods that showed little to no debt, signaling increased financial commitments even if leverage remains manageable.

Cash Flow

Operating cash generation is strong and consistent (TTM operating cash flow ~$604M) and generally supports earnings quality (operating cash flow relative to net income remains healthy). However, free cash flow is the key weakness: TTM free cash flow is deeply negative (about -$607M) after being positive in 2023–2024, and free cash flow growth is sharply down, suggesting a heavy investment/spend period or working-capital drag that could pressure near-term financial flexibility if it persists.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	855.95M	712.77M	598.42M	596.18M	645.17M	615.86M
Gross Profit	646.99M	615.26M	507.90M	501.54M	546.70M	332.65M
EBITDA	702.60M	574.33M	468.14M	466.93M	517.40M	529.63M
Net Income	480.08M	332.02M	239.44M	238.98M	274.04M	302.53M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.47B	3.39B	3.36B	3.53B	2.76B	2.65B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	172.85M	195.50M	104.17M	118.59M	143.55M	225.92M
Total Debt	770.20M	0.00	245.97M	571.57M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	1.05B	260.92M	460.42M	781.05M	155.82M	148.19M
Stockholders Equity	3.41B	3.12B	2.89B	2.74B	2.59B	2.49B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-607.17M	426.94M	413.11M	-504.81M	239.00M	239.00M
Operating Cash Flow	604.19M	529.50M	415.79M	417.35M	407.15M	407.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.20B	-77.68M	-2.83M	-922.88M	-116.74M	-116.74M
Financing Cash Flow	644.64M	-360.49M	-427.38M	480.57M	-383.63M	-383.63M

Royal Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 265.89
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RGLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 265.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 269.03, above the 50-day MA of 236.05, and above the 200-day MA of 192.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 11.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RGLD.

Royal Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NEM	80 Outperform	$127.51B	18.21	22.84%	0.95%	26.25%	―
HMY	78 Outperform	$13.58B	16.73	32.05%	0.87%	29.08%	72.12%
GFI	77 Outperform	$47.40B	24.92	35.09%	1.51%	49.62%	195.39%
RGLD	75 Outperform	$22.44B	36.35	14.90%	0.77%	28.11%	66.85%
AU	69 Neutral	$50.93B	43.16	―	2.82%	26.43%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SBSW	57 Neutral	$12.44B	-62.89	-8.31%	―	6.27%	93.14%