Royal Gold (RGLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $19.09B
• Dividend Yield: 0.77%
• Average Volume (3M): 882.60K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: 28.11%
• EPS Growth: 66.85%
• Country: US
• Employees: 30
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 1.92
• Shares Outstanding: 84,810,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 893,122
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 882,596
• PEG Ratio: 1.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 14.98
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 15.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 20.06
• 1Y Price Target: $327.17
• Price Target Upside: 45.36% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 13.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.07B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $245.00 ▲(8.86% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/20/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/20/26

The score is supported primarily by strong underlying financial performance and a constructive earnings-call outlook (record results, diversification, and improving debt trajectory). It is held back by weak technicals (downtrend with negative momentum) and a relatively rich valuation with a low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

High and durable profitability

Royal Gold's business model (royalties/streams) delivers very high margins and strong operating profitability, shown by TTM net margin above 50% and adjusted EBITDA margin of ~82% in 2025. High margin capture from downstream metal sales is a structural advantage that supports cash flows, reinvestment and dividend durability versus operating miners.

Broader, deeper asset portfolio

Recent M&A (Sandstorm, Horizon Copper, new streams) materially diversified Royal Gold's asset base across metals and jurisdictions, reducing concentration risk and creating multiple development-to-production pathways. A larger, multi-asset portfolio increases optionality for future volume growth and lengthens revenue visibility over the medium term.

Strong operating cash flow, liquidity and dividend track record

Royal Gold generates robust operating cash flow that supported record cash from operations in 2025, sizeable liquidity and accelerated debt paydown. The company's long history of annual dividend increases (25 years) combined with ample revolver capacity and stated earlier debt retirement materially strengthens its ability to fund distributions and selectively finance growth.

Negative Factors

Negative and volatile free cash flow

Despite very strong operating cash flow, free cash flow has been uneven and negative in the latest TTM and prior years. Sustained FCF volatility limits the firm's ability to self-fund acquisitions, capital contributions or faster debt reduction without using revolver capacity, making financing cadence and capital allocation less predictable over the medium term.

Step-up in leverage and higher interest costs

The company increased borrowings for acquisitions, producing higher interest expense and an absolute rise in debt after years of minimal leverage. Elevated interest costs and higher absolute debt increase sensitivity to any cash-flow shortfalls and reduce financial flexibility for future deals or unexpected capex, even with manageable leverage ratios today.

Operator/project funding and timing uncertainty

Royal Gold depends on third-party operators for production and faces project-level funding choices (e.g., Hod Maden JV funding or conversion). Large capex obligations and uncertain outcomes/timing for JV conversion expose the company to execution and funding risk that can affect future attributable volumes and cash flows across multiple years.

Royal Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests. It focuses on acquiring stream and royalty interests or to finance projects that are in production or in development stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests, which primarily consists of gold, silver, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, and cobalt. As of June 30, 2022, the Company owned interests in 185 properties on five continents, including interests on 41 producing mines and 19 development stage projects. Its stream and royalty interests on properties are located in the United States, Canada, Chile, the Dominican Republic, Australia, Africa, Mexico, and internationally. Royal Gold, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Royal Gold makes money primarily through (1) metal streams and (2) royalty interests, plus investment income and other minor items. 1) Metal streaming revenue: Under a streaming agreement, Royal Gold provides upfront capital (or other consideration) to a mine owner/operator in return for the right to purchase a fixed percentage of the mine’s future production of a specified metal (often gold and/or silver, sometimes copper) at a pre-agreed price that is typically well below prevailing market prices. Royal Gold then sells the delivered metal into the market (or to counterparties) and captures the margin between the market selling price and the contract purchase price, net of any related costs. Streaming cash flow is therefore driven by (a) delivered ounces/pounds under the contract, (b) commodity prices, (c) the fixed/contract purchase price terms, and (d) the operating performance of the underlying mine (which determines production and deliveries). 2) Royalty revenue: Under royalty agreements, Royal Gold receives a percentage of revenue or production from a mine (commonly structured as a net smelter return (NSR) royalty) without paying ongoing operating or sustaining capital costs. The operator sells the metal and remits the royalty amount to Royal Gold based on the royalty rate and the value/volume of qualifying production. Royalty cash flow is primarily driven by (a) production levels at the underlying mine, (b) realized commodity prices, and (c) the specific royalty terms (rate, payable metals, deductions allowed under NSR-type structures, and any caps/thresholds). Portfolio and partner/operator dependence: Because Royal Gold does not operate mines, its revenues depend on third-party operators successfully building, operating, and expanding the mines covered by its streams and royalties. Key factors that can materially affect earnings include commodity price movements (especially gold), mine performance and uptime, reserve/resource updates and mine life, development and expansion timelines at covered projects, and counterparty/operator credit and operational risk. Additional sources: Royal Gold may also generate smaller amounts of income from interest or returns on cash and investments and from other contractual items; if present, these are typically not the primary drivers compared with streaming and royalty receipts.

Royal Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and improving TTM revenue growth support a high score, and leverage remains manageable. The main drag is cash-flow quality: free cash flow has been volatile and recently negative, which matters more given the recent step-up in absolute debt.

Income Statement

Profitability is a clear strength: margins are very high across the period, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net margin above 50% and strong operating profitability. Growth improved meaningfully in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with revenue up ~20% versus low-to-modest growth in most prior years. The main caution is volatility in reported margin levels year-to-year (notably the sharp drop in gross margin in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus 2021–2024), which signals some sensitivity to pricing/contract economics or one-off items.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks solid with low leverage historically and still manageable leverage in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (debt-to-equity ~0.13). Equity and assets have increased sharply in the latest TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) snapshot, and returns on equity have improved to the mid-teens. The key weakness is the step-up in absolute debt in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) after years of minimal/zero debt, which increases financial risk if cash generation is pressured.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently strong and comfortably covers earnings (TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is several times net income), which supports underlying cash earning power. However, free cash flow is the main issue: it is negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and was also deeply negative in 2022, indicating periods of heavy investment or working-capital swings that can constrain flexibility despite strong operating inflows. The mix of very strong operating cash flow but uneven free cash flow lowers overall cash-flow quality.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.03B	712.77M	598.42M	596.18M	645.17M
Gross Profit	713.86M	615.26M	507.90M	501.54M	546.70M
EBITDA	774.35M	574.33M	468.14M	466.93M	517.40M
Net Income	466.28M	332.02M	239.44M	238.98M	274.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.54B	3.39B	3.36B	3.53B	2.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	233.72M	195.50M	104.17M	118.59M	143.55M
Total Debt	965.61M	0.00	245.97M	571.57M	0.00
Total Liabilities	2.33B	260.92M	460.42M	781.05M	155.82M
Stockholders Equity	7.16B	3.12B	2.89B	2.74B	2.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	704.85M	426.94M	413.11M	-504.81M	239.00M
Operating Cash Flow	704.85M	529.50M	415.79M	417.35M	407.15M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.42B	-77.68M	-2.83M	-922.88M	-116.74M
Financing Cash Flow	751.93M	-360.49M	-427.38M	480.57M	-383.63M

Royal Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 225.07
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RGLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 225.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 275.26, below the 50-day MA of 272.81, and above the 200-day MA of 207.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -8.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.92 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RGLD.

Royal Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GFI	75 Outperform	$36.54B	3.80	50.82%	1.51%	49.62%	195.39%
NEM	72 Outperform	$107.92B	15.59	21.72%	0.95%	26.25%	―
AU	72 Outperform	$46.65B	16.43	35.18%	2.82%	26.43%	―
HMY	71 Outperform	$8.57B	5.53	32.51%	0.87%	29.08%	72.12%
RGLD	68 Neutral	$19.09B	33.10	10.92%	0.77%	28.11%	66.85%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SBSW	49 Neutral	$7.81B	-27.73	-12.94%	―	6.27%	93.14%