Royal Gold (RGLD)
NASDAQ:RGLD
Top Page
Royal Gold
(NASDAQ:RGLD)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$259.00
▼(-3.42% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is primarily supported by strong profitability and a solid balance sheet, reinforced by a positive earnings outlook and improving debt trajectory. It is moderated by weak near-term technical momentum and a relatively expensive valuation with a low dividend yield, plus the financial risk signal from volatile/negative recent free cash flow.
Positive Factors
High profitability and margins
Royal Gold exhibits structurally high profitability: TTM net margins north of 50% and an 82% adjusted EBITDA margin indicate a royalty/streaming model with low ongoing operating cost, supporting durable free cash generation potential and strong returns on invested capital over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Uneven and negative free cash flow
Despite strong operating cash inflows, free cash flow has been negative recently due to heavy investments, working-capital swings and acquisition-related outflows. Persistent FCF volatility can constrain buybacks, dividends, and rapid debt paydown if operating receipts soften.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability and margins
Royal Gold exhibits structurally high profitability: TTM net margins north of 50% and an 82% adjusted EBITDA margin indicate a royalty/streaming model with low ongoing operating cost, supporting durable free cash generation potential and strong returns on invested capital over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Royal Gold (RGLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.74B
Dividend Yield0.77%
Average Volume (3M)1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.1
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth28.11%
EPS Growth66.85%
CountryUS
Employees30
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.92
Shares Outstanding84,810,100
10 Day Avg. Volume1,131,563
30 Day Avg. Volume1,217,237
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.16
Price to Sales (P/S)14.98
P/FCF Ratio21.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue18.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit25.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda25.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$330.50Price Target Upside23.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)12.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.02B
Royal Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests. It focuses on acquiring stream and royalty interests or to finance projects that are in production or in development s...
How the Company Makes Money
Royal Gold makes money primarily through (1) metal streams and (2) royalty interests, plus investment income and other minor items.
1) Metal streaming revenue: Under a streaming agreement, Royal Gold provides upfront capital (or other considerati...
Royal Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial picture: record revenue, cash flow and adjusted earnings, meaningful portfolio diversification via acquisitions, continued dividend growth, and faster-than-expected debt reduction. The primary negatives are largely transactional and one-time in nature (integration costs, a onetime Versamet share loss, higher DD&A from purchase accounting) and short-term delivery/timing variability and project-level uncertainties (Hod Maden, Pueblo Viejo recovery questions). Management characterizes most negatives as nonrecurring and expects a steadier profile in 2026, supporting a favorable outlook.Positive Updates
Record Annual Financial Performance
Full-year 2025 revenue of $1.0 billion (+43% vs 2024), operating cash flow of $705 million (+33%), GAAP earnings of $466 million (+40%), and adjusted net income of $510 million (+47% vs 2024). Adjusted EBITDA margin was 82% for the year.
Negative Updates
One-Time Acquisition-Related Costs and Earnings Impact
Several one-time items in Q4 tied to Sandstorm/Horizon and other transactions: integration costs (~$4.5 million), acquisition-related costs ~$14 million, and a one-time loss of approximately $48 million on the sale of Versamet shares, which contributed to lower GAAP net income in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Financial Performance
Full-year 2025 revenue of $1.0 billion (+43% vs 2024), operating cash flow of $705 million (+33%), GAAP earnings of $466 million (+40%), and adjusted net income of $510 million (+47% vs 2024). Adjusted EBITDA margin was 82% for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance and forward-looking commentary focused on 2026 and near-term pacing: the company expects Q1 2026 GEO sales to be in line with Q4 2025 (90,800 GEOs) and believes Q1 will be the lowest quarter of the year, will provide full 2026 revenue and DD&A guidance at Investor Day (Mar 31), and estimates 2026 total G&A of $50–$60 million (reflecting anticipated post‑acquisition synergies). Portfolio-linked operator guidance the Company cited includes Pueblo Viejo (Barrick) 2026 gold of 350,000–400,000 oz (their share), Cortez complex 700,000–780,000 oz (100% basis) with an expected blended royalty rate of ~3.5–4% in 2026 (vs. 2.6% in 2025), Xavantina (Ero) 40,000–50,000 oz in 2026, Kansanshi stream sales to Royal Gold of ~26,000–31,000 oz in 2026 (rising to 38,000–43,000 oz in 2028), and Khoemacau silver to Royal Gold of ~1.45–1.55 million oz in 2026 (90% payable factor). Financial posture/guidance items: year‑end debt was $900 million, subsequent repayments reduced outstanding debt to $725 million with ~$675 million available under the revolver, total available liquidity cited as $757 million (including $257 million working capital), remaining $200 million warrant funding to be paid in two $50 million tranches this year, and management now expects to fully repay the credit balance in early 2027 (earlier than prior mid‑2027 forecast).Royal Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.03B | 712.77M | 598.42M | 596.18M | 645.17M |
| Gross Profit | 713.86M | 615.26M | 507.90M | 501.54M | 546.70M |
| EBITDA | 774.35M | 574.33M | 468.14M | 466.93M | 517.40M |
| Net Income | 466.28M | 332.02M | 239.44M | 238.98M | 274.04M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.54B | 3.39B | 3.36B | 3.53B | 2.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 233.72M | 195.50M | 104.17M | 118.59M | 143.55M |
| Total Debt | 965.61M | 0.00 | 245.97M | 571.57M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 2.33B | 260.92M | 460.42M | 781.05M | 155.82M |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.16B | 3.12B | 2.89B | 2.74B | 2.59B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 704.85M | 426.94M | 413.11M | -504.81M | 239.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 704.85M | 529.50M | 415.79M | 417.35M | 407.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.42B | -77.68M | -2.83M | -922.88M | -116.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 751.93M | -360.49M | -427.38M | 480.57M | -383.63M |
Royal Gold Technical Analysis
Positive
268.17
Price Trends
267.10
Positive
245.04
Positive
210.94
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.44
Negative
57.61
Neutral
84.09
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RGLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 268.17 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 247.39, above the 50-day MA of 267.10, and above the 200-day MA of 210.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -1.44 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.09 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RGLD.
Royal Gold Risk Analysis
Royal Gold disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Royal Gold reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Royal Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $54.25B | 16.43 | 35.18% | 2.82% | 26.43% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $43.95B | 10.92 | 50.82% | 1.51% | 49.62% | 195.39% | |
73 Outperform | $10.11B | 5.53 | 32.51% | 0.87% | 29.08% | 72.12% | |
72 Outperform | $128.53B | 15.59 | 21.72% | 0.95% | 26.25% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $22.74B | 33.10 | 10.92% | 0.77% | 28.11% | 66.85% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | $9.23B | -34.86 | -12.94% | ― | 6.27% | 93.14% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
RGLD
Royal Gold
268.17
105.06
64.41%
GFI
Gold Fields
48.67
27.79
133.06%
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
16.57
2.03
13.92%
NEM
Newmont Mining
118.15
70.03
145.51%
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater
13.18
9.45
253.07%
AU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
107.42
72.59
208.37%
Royal Gold Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Royal Gold Issues 2026 Guidance and Five-Year Outlook
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Royal Gold issued calendar 2026 guidance calling for higher sales volumes of gold, silver and copper versus 2025, detailed assumptions for key assets such as Andacollo, Cortez, Kansanshi, Mount Milligan and Pueblo Viejo, and pro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.