Royal Gold (RGLD)
NASDAQ:RGLD
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Royal Gold
(NASDAQ:RGLD)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$264.00
▼(-1.54% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability, revenue momentum, and a low-leverage balance sheet, reinforced by a very positive earnings call highlighting record results, improved liquidity, and added capital-return flexibility. Offsetting these strengths are negative/volatile free cash flow and weakening technical momentum (price below key moving averages with a negative MACD), with valuation broadly reasonable but a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Asset-Light Royalty/Streaming Model
The royalty/streaming model provides durable cash flow exposure without mine operating or capital risk, preserving margins and limiting capital intensity. This structure supports scalable, asset-light growth, lower operating leverage, and long-lived revenue tails tied to third-party mine production.
Negative Factors
Volatile Free Cash Flow
Persistently volatile or negative FCF reduces confidence in internally available capital for dividends, buybacks and new streams. Over the medium term this may force reliance on revolver use or equity, constraining capital allocation flexibility and amplifying risks if metal prices or counterparty output fall.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset-Light Royalty/Streaming Model
The royalty/streaming model provides durable cash flow exposure without mine operating or capital risk, preserving margins and limiting capital intensity. This structure supports scalable, asset-light growth, lower operating leverage, and long-lived revenue tails tied to third-party mine production.
Read all positive factors
Royal Gold Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Royal Gold (RGLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.93B
Dividend Yield0.77%
Average Volume (3M)776.02K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.2
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth70.98%
EPS Growth38.91%
CountryUS
Employees30
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.40
Shares Outstanding84,866,600
10 Day Avg. Volume836,433
30 Day Avg. Volume776,022
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.16
Price to Sales (P/S)14.98
P/FCF Ratio21.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue12.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.73
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$333.60Price Target Upside24.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)11.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.02B
Royal Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metal streams, royalties, and related interests. It focuses on acquiring stream and royalty interests or to finance projects that are in production or in development s...
How the Company Makes Money
Royal Gold makes money primarily through royalty interests and metal streaming agreements tied to third-party mining operations. Under a royalty, Royal Gold typically receives a contractual percentage of revenue or metal production from a mine (of...
Royal Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive quarter driven by record revenue, earnings, and operating cash flow supported by significantly higher metal prices and strong stream and royalty contributions. Management strengthened liquidity, added capital allocation tools (accordion revolver and $500M buyback authorization), and executed portfolio rationalizations and divestitures. Key challenges include higher DD&A and interest costs from recent acquisitions and revolver use, some asset-specific operational transitions (Peñasquito ramp-down, Coimolache contractor changes), and ongoing uncertainty at Hod Maden and with remaining non-core equity positions. Overall, positives (record financials, improved liquidity, strategic tools, portfolio progress) materially outweighed the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Earnings
Quarterly revenue of $469 million (record), up 143% year-over-year; net income $281 million, up 148% YoY; adjusted net income $233 million or $2.72 per share, up 80% YoY.
Negative Updates
Higher DD&A and Unit Costs
DD&A increased to $91 million from $33 million YoY; unit DD&A $944 per GEO versus $488 last year, driven by higher carrying values from Kansanshi gold stream and Sandstorm Horizon interests—could pressure future margins on a per-GEO basis.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Earnings
Quarterly revenue of $469 million (record), up 143% year-over-year; net income $281 million, up 148% YoY; adjusted net income $233 million or $2.72 per share, up 80% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Royal Gold said it will not update its five‑year (2030) guidance until next year but will continue to provide annual guidance and reiterated a roughly 48/52 H1/H2 production split for 2026; key financial guidance/targets disclosed include full‑year cash G&A expected near the high end of $50–$60 million (Q1 G&A $17.5M), an expected full‑year effective tax rate of 17–22% (Q1 was 8% including a $33.7M discrete benefit; ~19.5% excluding it), and an intention to fully repay the revolver by Q4 based on current metal prices (after $300M revolver repayment in Q1, a $75M April payment and a planned $100M payment next week that would leave $425M outstanding and ~$975M available; total available liquidity was ~$1.1B at March 31 including $295M working capital). The company added a $600M accordion to raise revolver capacity to $2.0B if exercised, announced a $500M share repurchase authorization, affirmed the $1.90 per share annual dividend (Q1 dividends paid $40M), noted metal sales are tracking to 2026 guidance with Q1 copper slightly ahead, and flagged transaction‑specific items (Warintza $100M commitment with $50M paid and $50M due on closing; Hod Maden cash call ~$14M in Q1 with modest JV losses picked up) — plus it will begin issuing preliminary stream and royalty revenue estimates in the third full week after each quarter for greater transparency.Royal Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.31B | 1.03B | 712.77M | 598.42M | 596.18M | 645.17M |
| Gross Profit | 894.30M | 713.86M | 615.26M | 507.90M | 501.54M | 546.70M |
| EBITDA | 1.00B | 774.35M | 574.33M | 468.14M | 466.93M | 517.40M |
| Net Income | 633.91M | 466.28M | 332.02M | 239.44M | 238.98M | 274.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.49B | 9.54B | 3.39B | 3.36B | 3.53B | 2.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 234.14M | 233.72M | 195.50M | 104.17M | 118.59M | 143.55M |
| Total Debt | 595.69M | 965.61M | 0.00 | 245.97M | 571.57M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 2.03B | 2.33B | 260.92M | 460.42M | 781.05M | 155.82M |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.42B | 7.16B | 3.12B | 2.89B | 2.74B | 2.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -244.20M | 704.85M | 426.94M | 413.11M | -504.81M | 239.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 862.04M | 704.85M | 529.50M | 415.79M | 417.35M | 407.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.33B | -1.42B | -77.68M | -2.83M | -922.88M | -116.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 457.50M | 751.93M | -360.49M | -427.38M | 480.57M | -383.63M |
Royal Gold Technical Analysis
Negative
268.12
Price Trends
244.99
Negative
257.29
Negative
223.69
Negative
Market Momentum
-7.09
Positive
36.60
Neutral
13.94
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RGLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 268.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 234.40, above the 50-day MA of 244.99, and above the 200-day MA of 223.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -7.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RGLD.
Royal Gold Risk Analysis
Royal Gold disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Royal Gold reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Royal Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $114.64B | 9.00 | 25.22% | 0.95% | 25.14% | 73.19% | |
81 Outperform | $46.86B | 9.59 | 43.79% | 2.82% | ― | ― | |
75 Outperform | $36.27B | 3.80 | 50.82% | 1.51% | 68.87% | 187.55% | |
73 Outperform | $10.86B | 5.53 | 32.51% | 0.87% | 31.10% | 57.19% | |
71 Outperform | $18.93B | 19.17 | 11.91% | 0.77% | 70.98% | 38.91% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | $8.29B | ― | -12.94% | ― | 19.11% | 27.86% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
RGLD
Royal Gold
222.33
47.13
26.90%
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87.61%
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
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15.44%
NEM
Newmont Mining
108.33
56.36
108.43%
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater
11.68
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99.52%
AU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
91.85
50.84
123.95%
Royal Gold Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Royal Gold Issues 2026 Guidance and Five-Year Outlook
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Royal Gold issued calendar 2026 guidance calling for higher sales volumes of gold, silver and copper versus 2025, detailed assumptions for key assets such as Andacollo, Cortez, Kansanshi, Mount Milligan and Pueblo Viejo, and pro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.