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Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd (HMY)
NYSE:HMY

Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) AI Stock Analysis

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HMY

Harmony Gold Mining

(NYSE:HMY)

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Outperform 77 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$20.00
▲(11.23% Upside)
Harmony Gold Mining's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call, which highlight robust growth and strategic initiatives for future expansion. The technical analysis and valuation suggest a neutral outlook, with fair valuation and moderate income potential. The absence of significant corporate events does not impact the score.

Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Harmony Gold Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited is one of South Africa's largest gold mining companies, primarily focused on the exploration, extraction, and processing of gold and other precious minerals. The company operates several mines across South Africa and has mining activities in Papua New Guinea. Harmony's core products include gold bullion, which is sold on the international market, and other by-products such as copper and silver. The company also engages in the development of mining projects aimed at increasing its resource base and production capacity.
How the Company Makes MoneyHarmony Gold Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced from its mining operations. The company's revenue model is centered on extracting gold from its mines, which is then sold at prevailing market prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold bullion, which constitutes the majority of its income, as well as the sale of by-products such as copper and silver. Additionally, Harmony may generate revenue through strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and investments in mining projects that enhance its operational capacity. Fluctuations in gold prices and demand in the global market significantly impact the company’s earnings, along with its operational efficiency and cost management.

Harmony Gold Mining Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Harmony's earnings call highlighted a strong financial and operational performance with record cash flows and improved safety metrics. However, the company faced challenges in the second half with safety performance and an increase in production costs. Strategic initiatives in copper and a strong balance sheet position the company well for future growth.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Production Guidance Achievement
FY '25 marks Harmony's 10th consecutive year of meeting production guidance, demonstrating operational excellence and effective capital allocation.
Record Financial Performance
Record high cash flows with adjusted free cash flow reaching over ZAR 11 billion at a 16% margin. Headline earnings per share rose by 26% to ZAR 23.37 per share, and a record final dividend of ZAR 2.4 billion was declared.
Improved Safety Metrics
Achieved the lowest ever LTIFR in company history at 5.39 per million hours worked, despite challenges in the second half of the year.
High-Grade Mining Success
Underground recovered grades increased to 6.27 grams per tonne, exceeding upward revised grade guidance.
Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Position
Net cash on the balance sheet surged by 285% to ZAR 11.1 billion, with a significant increase in available liquidity to ZAR 20.9 billion.
Strategic Growth in Copper
Acquisition of MAC Copper and progress on Eva Copper project bolster the portfolio's future growth and diversification.
Negative Updates
Safety Challenges in Second Half
The second half of the financial year saw unacceptable safety performance, though improvements are being made.
Production Decrease
Group production decreased by 5% to 46 tonnes or 1.48 million ounces, though this was in line with a focus on quality over volume.
Increased Costs
All-in sustaining costs increased by 17% to ZAR 1.05 million per kilogram, reflecting lower production, mine inflation, and higher royalties.
Contractor Challenges
Difficulties in securing contractors for projects at Moab Khotsong and Mponeng, though internal teams have been mobilized to maintain progress.
Potential Production Gap
A potential dip in production at Moab Khotsong expected between 2027 and 2031 due to delayed Zaaiplaats feasibility study.
Company Guidance
During Harmony's fiscal year 2025 call, the company provided several key metrics reflecting their performance and future guidance. Harmony achieved its 10th consecutive year of meeting production guidance, with gold production hitting the upper end at 46 tonnes or about 1.48 million ounces, and maintaining all-in sustaining costs at ZAR 1.05 million per kilogram, approximately USD 1,800 per ounce. The company reported a record adjusted free cash flow of over ZAR 11 billion, a 54% increase, and headline earnings per share rose by 26% to ZAR 23.37. Additionally, Harmony declared a record final dividend of ZAR 2.4 billion and noted a significant improvement in safety metrics, achieving the lowest LTIFR in its history at 5.39 per million hours worked. Looking forward, Harmony plans to maintain steady production guidance for FY '26 between 1.4 and 1.5 million ounces, with underground recovered grades remaining strong at above 5.8 grams per tonne. The company is also progressing its MAC Copper acquisition and Eva Copper project, with these ventures expected to enhance their portfolio and contribute significantly to future production.

Harmony Gold Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Harmony Gold Mining Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price17.98
Price Trends
50DMA
18.32
Positive
100DMA
17.04
Positive
200DMA
15.72
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.75
Negative
RSI
60.94
Neutral
STOCH
65.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HMY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.23, below the 50-day MA of 18.32, and above the 200-day MA of 15.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HMY.

Harmony Gold Mining Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (―)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$2.59B21.2528.10%1.17%30.05%73.40%
78
Outperform
$18.76B30.4714.90%0.81%28.11%66.85%
77
Outperform
$12.95B16.2332.05%0.92%29.08%72.12%
74
Outperform
$13.01B63.938.88%0.08%45.61%
69
Neutral
$10.85B25.2219.57%72.94%
58
Neutral
$9.78B-50.95-8.31%6.27%93.14%
* Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
20.30
11.95
143.11%
CDE
Coeur Mining
17.12
11.24
191.16%
DRD
Drdgold
29.58
20.94
242.36%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
19.03
14.00
278.33%
RGLD
Royal Gold
223.58
91.21
68.91%
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater
13.91
10.30
285.32%

Harmony Gold Mining Corporate Events

Harmony Gold Mining Approves Key Resolutions at 2025 AGM
Nov 26, 2025

On November 26, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited held its electronic annual general meeting, where all proposed ordinary and special resolutions were approved by the requisite majority of shareholders. This included the election and re-election of directors and committee members, as well as the re-appointment of external auditors. The approval of these resolutions reflects shareholder confidence in the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially strengthening its position in the industry.

Harmony Gold Mining Approves Eva Copper Project Development
Nov 24, 2025

On November 24, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the approval of the Final Investment Decision for the Eva Copper Project in Queensland, Australia. The project is expected to produce approximately 65,000 tonnes of copper annually in its initial years and is projected to have a 15-year mine life. The development is strategically important for Harmony as it diversifies its portfolio with copper, complementing its gold production and enhancing cash flow resilience. The project is anticipated to contribute significantly to Queensland’s economy and provide substantial employment opportunities. With a robust technical and financial foundation, the project is set to commence production in the second half of 2028, aligning with a predicted copper supply gap.

Harmony Gold Reports Strong Q1FY26 Performance and Strategic Copper Acquisition
Nov 12, 2025

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported a strong operational performance for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, with significant improvements in safety, operational excellence, and financial metrics. The company achieved a loss-of-life-free quarter, improved its lost-time injury frequency rate, and saw a 20% increase in gold revenue due to a higher gold price. Notably, Harmony completed the acquisition of MAC Copper, marking a strategic move to expand its copper portfolio, which is essential for the global energy transition. The acquisition supports Harmony’s strategy to grow as a global gold and copper producer, reinforcing its role in the renewable energy sector and positioning it for long-term demand. The company’s balance sheet remains robust, with increased cash flow and liquidity, enabling continued investment in growth projects and operational resilience.

Harmony Gold Files Annual Report with SEC
Nov 3, 2025

On November 3, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the filing of its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. This filing, which was completed on October 31, 2025, is a significant step in maintaining transparency and compliance with international financial reporting standards, potentially impacting the company’s operations and stakeholder confidence.

Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Incident at Mponeng Mine
Oct 27, 2025

On October 27, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported a tragic incident at its Mponeng mine, resulting in the loss of life of an electrician during routine maintenance on October 26, 2025. The company expressed condolences to the bereaved family and initiated a full investigation in collaboration with the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. Harmony reiterated its commitment to safety and proactive measures to ensure a culture of care across its operations.

Harmony Gold Releases FY25 Reports and Announces Board Changes
Oct 24, 2025

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the release of its annual reporting suite for the financial year ending June 30, 2025, on October 24, 2025. The reports highlight a year of consistent delivery, with Harmony meeting production guidance for the tenth consecutive year and achieving record free cash flows. The company is celebrating its 75th anniversary and is focused on expanding into copper to diversify its operations. Additionally, Harmony is committed to transformation in South Africa, as evidenced by its Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment report. The company also announced proposed changes to its board committees, including the appointment of Ms. Zanele Matlala as Chairperson of the Social and Ethics Committee, subject to shareholder approval at the upcoming AGM.

Harmony Gold Completes Acquisition of CSA Copper Mine
Oct 24, 2025

On October 24, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the completion of its acquisition of MAC Copper Limited, securing full ownership of the high-grade CSA copper mine in New South Wales, Australia. This strategic acquisition, valued at approximately US$1.01 billion, was funded through cash reserves and a bridge facility, and is expected to enhance Harmony’s position as a global gold and copper producer. The integration of the CSA mine is set to begin immediately, aiming to align its operations with Harmony’s frameworks to boost efficiency and contribute to long-term growth. This move marks a significant step in Harmony’s strategy to expand its copper production capabilities, reinforcing its commitment to sustainable value creation.

Harmony Gold’s Acquisition of MAC Copper Approved by Jersey Court
Oct 10, 2025

On October 10, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced that the Royal Court of Jersey has sanctioned its acquisition of MAC Copper Limited through a scheme of arrangement. This legal approval allows Harmony to proceed with the acquisition, with the implementation expected on October 24, 2025, granting Harmony ownership and operational control of the CSA Copper Mine. This strategic move is anticipated to enhance Harmony’s market position by diversifying its mining portfolio to include copper, potentially impacting stakeholders positively by expanding the company’s operational footprint.

Harmony Gold Awards Deferred Shares to Executives
Oct 3, 2025

On October 3, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the awarding of deferred shares to its executive directors and prescribed officers as part of the 2018 Harmony Deferred Share Plan. The shares, awarded on September 18, 2025, are set to vest in five equal tranches over a five-year period. This move is in compliance with the JSE Listings Requirements and reflects the company’s commitment to aligning the interests of its executives with those of its shareholders, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder confidence.

Harmony Gold Announces Vesting of Deferred Shares for Executives
Sep 25, 2025

On September 25, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the vesting and settlement of deferred share awards for its directors and prescribed officers under the Harmony Deferred Share Plan 2018. The transactions, which took place on September 18 and 22, 2025, involved the sale of vested ordinary shares by key executives, including the Group CEO, Financial Director, and other senior officers. These transactions reflect the company’s ongoing efforts to align executive compensation with shareholder interests and market performance.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 11, 2025