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Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd (HMY)
NYSE:HMY
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Harmony Gold Mining
(NYSE:HMY)
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(20.48% Upside)
Positive Factors
Operational Performance
Harmony has embarked on an asset optimization and portfolio rationalization strategy that has delivered positive results.
Production Guidance
Harmony is expected to reach the upper end of production guidance and underground grades are anticipated to increase ahead of guidance.
Negative Factors
Cost Profile
Harmony has a relatively higher cost profile amongst its peers, which alongside its emerging market positioning would position Harmony as a more leveraged play on the gold price.
Safety Concerns
Concerns exist about Harmony's poor safety and fatality track record compared to peers.
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.39B
Dividend Yield1.3%
Average Volume (3M)4.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.4
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth29.08%
EPS Growth70.63%
CountryUS
Employees34,715
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength73
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.57
Shares Outstanding634,767,700
10 Day Avg. Volume5,527,555
30 Day Avg. Volume4,082,493
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.42
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.00Price Target Upside20.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
Harmony Gold Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) is a leading global gold mining and exploration company, primarily operating in South Africa and Papua New Guinea. Established in 1950, Harmony is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. The company is involved in the extraction and processing of gold, as well as conducting exploration activities for gold and other precious metals. Harmony is dedicated to sustainable mining practices, with a focus on environmental stewardship and community development.
How the Company Makes MoneyHarmony Gold Mining makes money primarily through the extraction and sale of gold. The company owns and operates a portfolio of mining assets, including both underground and open-pit mines, which produce gold bullion and gold-bearing concentrates. Revenue is generated by selling the gold produced to refineries and various market participants such as banks, hedge funds, and other financial institutions. Additionally, the company engages in exploration activities to discover and develop new gold reserves, thus ensuring long-term production sustainability. Key factors contributing to its earnings include market gold prices, operational efficiency, and cost management. Harmony also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, particularly in regions rich in gold reserves, which help optimize production and reduce operational risks.
Harmony Gold Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Harmony's earnings call highlighted a strong financial and operational performance with record cash flows and improved safety metrics. However, the company faced challenges in the second half with safety performance and an increase in production costs. Strategic initiatives in copper and a strong balance sheet position the company well for future growth.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Production Guidance Achievement
FY '25 marks Harmony's 10th consecutive year of meeting production guidance, demonstrating operational excellence and effective capital allocation.
Record Financial Performance
Record high cash flows with adjusted free cash flow reaching over ZAR 11 billion at a 16% margin. Headline earnings per share rose by 26% to ZAR 23.37 per share, and a record final dividend of ZAR 2.4 billion was declared.
Improved Safety Metrics
Achieved the lowest ever LTIFR in company history at 5.39 per million hours worked, despite challenges in the second half of the year.
High-Grade Mining Success
Underground recovered grades increased to 6.27 grams per tonne, exceeding upward revised grade guidance.
Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Position
Net cash on the balance sheet surged by 285% to ZAR 11.1 billion, with a significant increase in available liquidity to ZAR 20.9 billion.
Strategic Growth in Copper
Acquisition of MAC Copper and progress on Eva Copper project bolster the portfolio's future growth and diversification.
Negative Updates
Safety Challenges in Second Half
The second half of the financial year saw unacceptable safety performance, though improvements are being made.
Production Decrease
Group production decreased by 5% to 46 tonnes or 1.48 million ounces, though this was in line with a focus on quality over volume.
Increased Costs
All-in sustaining costs increased by 17% to ZAR 1.05 million per kilogram, reflecting lower production, mine inflation, and higher royalties.
Contractor Challenges
Difficulties in securing contractors for projects at Moab Khotsong and Mponeng, though internal teams have been mobilized to maintain progress.
Potential Production Gap
A potential dip in production at Moab Khotsong expected between 2027 and 2031 due to delayed Zaaiplaats feasibility study.
Company Guidance
During Harmony's fiscal year 2025 call, the company provided several key metrics reflecting their performance and future guidance. Harmony achieved its 10th consecutive year of meeting production guidance, with gold production hitting the upper end at 46 tonnes or about 1.48 million ounces, and maintaining all-in sustaining costs at ZAR 1.05 million per kilogram, approximately USD 1,800 per ounce. The company reported a record adjusted free cash flow of over ZAR 11 billion, a 54% increase, and headline earnings per share rose by 26% to ZAR 23.37. Additionally, Harmony declared a record final dividend of ZAR 2.4 billion and noted a significant improvement in safety metrics, achieving the lowest LTIFR in its history at 5.39 per million hours worked. Looking forward, Harmony plans to maintain steady production guidance for FY '26 between 1.4 and 1.5 million ounces, with underground recovered grades remaining strong at above 5.8 grams per tonne. The company is also progressing its MAC Copper acquisition and Eva Copper project, with these ventures expected to enhance their portfolio and contribute significantly to future production.Harmony Gold Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Harmony Gold Mining showcases a solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and profitability metrics. The company has maintained a healthy balance sheet with low leverage, and its cash flow generation capabilities are robust, supporting future growth and stability.Income Statement
Harmony Gold Mining has shown impressive revenue growth with a notable increase from 49.28 billion to 61.38 billion over the last year, marking a revenue growth rate of approximately 24.53%. The company also improved its profitability significantly with a net profit margin rising to 13.99% from 9.78% the previous year. Gross profit margin stands at 23.06%, indicating efficient cost management. Stability in EBIT and EBITDA margins at 19.02% and 28.04% respectively, further supports robust operational performance.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Harmony Gold's balance sheet shows strength in equity with a substantial increase to 40.77 billion, improving the equity ratio to 67.46%. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.056, indicating minimal leverage risk. However, there is a potential risk with a debt level that could increase in future expansions. ROE improved to 21.06%, highlighting effective use of equity capital.78
Positive
Cash Flow
The company demonstrated strong cash flow management, with a substantial increase in free cash flow to 7.25 billion, reflecting a free cash flow growth rate of 214.24%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 1.82, indicating efficient conversion of income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly lower at 0.84, suggesting room for improvement in free cash efficiency.80
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 61.38B | 49.27B | 42.65B | 41.73B | 29.25B |
| Gross Profit | 14.15B | 9.74B | 718.00M | 6.08B | 3.34B |
| EBITDA | 17.21B | 7.98B | 3.34B | 4.35B | 2.40B |
| Net Income | 8.59B | 4.82B | -1.05B | 5.09B | -878.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 60.46B | 57.24B | 46.81B | 49.50B | 44.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.69B | 2.87B | 2.45B | 2.82B | 6.36B |
| Total Debt | 2.29B | 5.70B | 3.21B | 3.36B | 7.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 19.51B | 22.36B | 16.69B | 17.82B | 21.32B |
| Stockholders Equity | 40.77B | 34.76B | 30.04B | 31.63B | 23.37B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.25B | 2.31B | 710.00M | 4.04B | 64.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 15.65B | 9.95B | 6.92B | 9.18B | 272.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.36B | -10.60B | -6.20B | -8.46B | -204.96M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.43B | 1.19B | -1.15B | -4.30B | 248.00M |
Harmony Gold Mining Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.28
Price Trends
14.62
Negative
15.00
Negative
12.75
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.19
Positive
46.05
Neutral
22.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HMY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.20, below the 50-day MA of 14.62, and above the 200-day MA of 12.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HMY.
Harmony Gold Mining Risk Analysis
Harmony Gold Mining disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harmony Gold Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Harmony Gold Mining Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $8.45B | 33.72 | 9.88% | ― | 68.88% | ― | |
79 Outperform | $29.44B | 15.90 | 35.09% | 1.58% | 49.62% | 195.39% | |
78 Outperform | $8.39B | 10.43 | 32.05% | 1.30% | 29.08% | 70.63% | |
78 Outperform | $11.82B | 26.29 | 14.32% | 0.97% | 30.15% | 86.71% | |
73 Outperform | $28.53B | 24.27 | 19.42% | 2.78% | 26.43% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $5.70B | 54.38 | 4.67% | 0.29% | 36.30% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.24B | 6.18 | 0.71% | 2.90% | 3.45% | -36.02% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
14.28
5.35
59.91%
CDE
Coeur Mining
13.66
8.28
153.90%
GFI
Gold Fields
34.39
21.17
160.14%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
8.92
3.47
63.67%
RGLD
Royal Gold
182.97
47.82
35.38%
AU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
58.14
30.70
111.88%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.