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Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd (HMY)
:HMY
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Harmony Gold Mining
(NYSE:HMY)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(8.70%Upside)
Positive Factors
Dividend Declaration
Harmony declared a large dividend, which is a positive sign for shareholders.
Gold Price Forecast
Analysts are bullish on gold, forecasting it to reach $3000/oz, which could benefit Harmony due to its operational gearing.
Production and Grades
Harmony is expected to reach the upper end of production guidance and underground grades are anticipated to increase ahead of guidance.
Negative Factors
Cost Position
Harmony is a high-cost gold producer in the fourth quartile cost curve position.
Production Challenges
Production is down on lower output at Hidden Valley and Doornkop.
Safety Concerns
Concerns exist about Harmony's poor safety and fatality track record compared to peers.
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.91B
Dividend Yield1.72%
Average Volume (3M)4.85M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.0
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth20.35%
EPS Growth20.44%
CountryUS
Employees34,715
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength69
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.68
Shares Outstanding634,767,700
10 Day Avg. Volume4,531,630
30 Day Avg. Volume4,849,554
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.92
Price to Book (P/B)3.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio13.78
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.99Price Target Upside12.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
Harmony Gold Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) is a leading global gold mining and exploration company, primarily operating in South Africa and Papua New Guinea. Established in 1950, Harmony is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange. The company is involved in the extraction and processing of gold, as well as conducting exploration activities for gold and other precious metals. Harmony is dedicated to sustainable mining practices, with a focus on environmental stewardship and community development.
How the Company Makes MoneyHarmony Gold Mining makes money primarily through the extraction and sale of gold. The company owns and operates a portfolio of mining assets, including both underground and open-pit mines, which produce gold bullion and gold-bearing concentrates. Revenue is generated by selling the gold produced to refineries and various market participants such as banks, hedge funds, and other financial institutions. Additionally, the company engages in exploration activities to discover and develop new gold reserves, thus ensuring long-term production sustainability. Key factors contributing to its earnings include market gold prices, operational efficiency, and cost management. Harmony also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, particularly in regions rich in gold reserves, which help optimize production and reduce operational risks.
Harmony Gold Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 43.46%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights significant achievements in production and financial performance, including record cash flows and dividends, strategic investments in high-grade assets, and improved safety metrics. However, challenges such as increased operating costs, production issues at Hidden Valley, and delays in the Wafi-Golpu project indicate areas requiring attention.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Free Cash Flow Generation
Harmony generated record interim operating free cash flows of ZAR 10.4 billion (US$579 million), with an operating free cash flow margin of 29% as a result of high gold prices and quality ounces.
Increased Production and Earnings
Group production reached 800,000 ounces, with headline earnings per share growing by 33% to ZAR 12.70 per share (US$0.71 per share).
Strong Safety Improvements
Improvement in the lost time injury frequency rate to 5.52 and a loss of life injury frequency rate of 0.02.
Strategic Capital Allocation
Investment in high-grade projects and surface operations, including ZAR2 billion at Mponeng and Moab Khotsong and over ZAR1 billion at Mine Waste Solutions.
Robust Financial Performance
18% increase in group revenue to ZAR37 billion, driven by a 23% increase in the rand gold price. Net profit increased by 33% to ZAR7.9 billion.
Record Interim Dividend Payout
A record interim dividend payout of ZAR 1.4 billion was announced, reflecting strong cash flow generation.
Negative Updates
Increased Operating Costs
Total cash operating costs in rand terms increased by 9% due to inflation and planned lower production at certain assets.
Production Challenges at Hidden Valley
Grades at Hidden Valley have seen a step down, with expectations of normalization to guided grades going forward.
Wafi-Golpu Project Delays
Continued delays in obtaining the special mining lease for Wafi-Golpu, with ongoing negotiations and permitting processes.
Company Guidance
In the recent call, Harmony Gold Mining Company presented an impressive set of interim results for the half-year ending December 31, 2024. The company reported an increase in underground recovered grades to 6.4 grams per tonne, surpassing their full-year guidance. Group production reached approximately 25,000 kilograms or 800,000 ounces, also exceeding guidance. All-in sustaining costs were well controlled at around ZAR 972,000 per kilogram or just under US$1,690 per ounce. Operating free cash flows hit a record ZAR 10.4 billion (US$579 million), contributing to an expanded free cash flow margin of 29%. The headline earnings per share grew by 33% to ZAR 12.70 (US$0.71), with a record interim dividend payout of ZAR 1.4 billion announced. The company's strategy focuses on safe, profitable production, with a significant emphasis on safety, operational excellence, and a balanced approach to capital allocation, including investments in higher-grade projects such as Mponeng and Moab Khotsong. The presentation also highlighted the company's commitment to long-term growth through strategic investments in gold and copper, with upcoming projects like Eva Copper and Wafi-Golpu expected to enhance profitability and diversify the asset portfolio.Harmony Gold Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Harmony Gold Mining showcases a solid financial performance with strong growth and profitability metrics. Revenue grew by 24.53% and net profit margin increased to 13.99%. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage and improving ROE. Cash flow management is robust, supporting future growth and stability.Income Statement
Harmony Gold Mining has shown impressive revenue growth with a notable increase from 49.28 billion to 61.38 billion over the last year, marking a revenue growth rate of approximately 24.53%. The company also improved its profitability significantly with a net profit margin rising to 13.99% from 9.78% the previous year. Gross profit margin stands at 23.06%, indicating efficient cost management. Stability in EBIT and EBITDA margins at 19.02% and 28.04% respectively, further supports robust operational performance.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Harmony Gold's balance sheet shows strength in equity with a substantial increase to 40.77 billion, improving the equity ratio to 67.46%. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.056, indicating minimal leverage risk. However, there is a potential risk with a debt level that could increase in future expansions. ROE improved to 21.06%, highlighting effective use of equity capital.78
Positive
Cash Flow
The company demonstrated strong cash flow management, with a substantial increase in free cash flow to 7.25 billion, reflecting a free cash flow growth rate of 214.24%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 1.82, indicating efficient conversion of income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly lower at 0.84, suggesting room for improvement in free cash efficiency.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 | Jun 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 66.96B | 61.38B | 49.27B | 42.65B | 41.73B | 29.25B |
| Gross Profit | 22.30B | 14.15B | 9.74B | 718.00M | 6.08B | 3.34B |
| EBITDA | 19.43B | 17.21B | 7.98B | 3.34B | 4.35B | 2.40B |
| Net Income | 10.52B | 8.59B | 4.82B | -1.05B | 5.09B | -878.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 68.90B | 60.46B | 57.24B | 46.81B | 49.50B | 44.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.40B | 4.69B | 2.87B | 2.45B | 2.82B | 6.36B |
| Total Debt | 2.42B | 2.29B | 5.70B | 3.21B | 3.36B | 7.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 22.85B | 19.51B | 22.36B | 16.69B | 17.82B | 21.32B |
| Stockholders Equity | 45.83B | 40.77B | 34.76B | 30.04B | 31.63B | 23.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.50B | 7.25B | 2.31B | 710.00M | 4.04B | 64.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 18.84B | 15.65B | 9.95B | 6.92B | 9.18B | 272.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -9.60B | -8.36B | -10.60B | -6.20B | -8.46B | -204.96M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.24B | -5.43B | 1.19B | -1.15B | -4.30B | 248.00M |
Harmony Gold Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
14.26
Price Trends
14.92
Negative
13.88
Positive
11.85
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.26
Positive
47.93
Neutral
52.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HMY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.42, below the 50-day MA of 14.92, and above the 200-day MA of 11.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HMY.
Harmony Gold Mining Risk Analysis
Harmony Gold Mining disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harmony Gold Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Harmony Gold Mining Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $11.69B | 29.33 | 13.03% | 1.01% | 18.77% | 38.55% | |
75 Outperform | $23.06B | 19.62 | 19.42% | 0.55% | 26.43% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $21.40B | 17.06 | 25.35% | 3.16% | 13.41% | 73.34% | |
74 Outperform | $8.91B | 14.96 | 25.19% | 1.72% | 20.35% | 20.44% | |
72 Outperform | $3.78B | 53.74 | 3.49% | 0.25% | 41.04% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $5.57B | 31.25 | 6.44% | ― | 41.79% | ― | |
44 Neutral | C$967.22M | -6.71 | -13.35% | 2.72% | 17.20% | -32.62% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
14.26
5.00
54.00%
CDE
Coeur Mining
8.98
3.02
50.67%
GFI
Gold Fields
24.09
9.17
61.46%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
6.03
0.88
17.09%
RGLD
Royal Gold
179.30
51.42
40.21%
AU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
46.66
21.40
84.72%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.