Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.86B
• Dividend Yield: 0.87%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.34M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: 29.08%
• EPS Growth: 72.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34,715
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.57
• Shares Outstanding: 636,798,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,624,983
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,338,460
• PEG Ratio: 0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 15.62
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.85
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.65
• 1Y Price Target: $26.00
• Price Target Upside: 28.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.1
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.23B

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $24.00 ▲(18.40% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/25/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/25/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability, low leverage, and solid cash generation) and supportive bullish technicals with price above all key moving averages. The rating is tempered by only moderate valuation support (P/E ~18 and low dividend yield) and earnings-call risks around rising costs and operational/safety headwinds.

Positive Factors

Conservative Balance Sheet

Harmony’s very low leverage and strong equity base provide durable financial flexibility. Conservatively levered balance sheet and net cash reserves reduce refinancing risk, enable counter-cyclical capital deployment into projects, support dividends, and protect operations through commodity downcycles.

Strong Cash Generation & Profitability

Sustained high free cash flow and healthy operating margins underpin internal funding for growth, dividends, and sustaining capex. Reliable cash conversion improves resilience to price swings, funds strategic projects, and reduces reliance on external finance over multiple years.

Strategic Diversification into Copper

Adding long-life copper assets materially diversifies commodity exposure and reduces pure-gold cyclicality. A 15-year copper operation with substantial annual output positions Harmony to benefit from structural copper deficits, smoothing cash flows and enhancing long-term portfolio optionality.

Negative Factors

Safety and Operational Risk

Fatal incidents and safety shortfalls carry persistent operational and reputational risk. They can trigger regulatory probes, suspensions, higher compliance costs and slower project execution; improving safety metrics requires sustained investment and cultural change across operations.

Potential Production Gap at Moab Khotsong

A multi-year production shortfall at a major asset would structurally reduce group ounces, elevating unit costs and revenue volatility. Delays in feasibility and contractor constraints can force rerouting of capital, impact long-term planning, and compress ability to meet future guidance reliably.

Rising Unit Costs and Operational Headwinds

Sustained cost inflation, higher royalties and episodic operational issues can structurally erode margin per ounce. If inflationary pressures and reagent or equipment constraints persist, the company's resilient cash generation could be challenged and long-term project economics weakened.

Harmony Gold Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of gold. It also explores for uranium, silver, copper, and molybdenum deposits. The company has nine underground operations in the Witwatersrand Basin; an open-pit mine on the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt; and various surface treatment operations in South Africa. It also owns interests in the Hidden Valley, an open-pit gold and silver mine; and Wafi-Golpu, a project in Morobe Province in Papua New Guinea. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Randfontein, South Africa.

How the Company Makes Money

Harmony Gold Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced from its mining operations. The company's revenue model is centered on extracting gold from its mines, which is then sold at prevailing market prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold bullion, which constitutes the majority of its income, as well as the sale of by-products such as copper and silver. Additionally, Harmony may generate revenue through strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and investments in mining projects that enhance its operational capacity. Fluctuations in gold prices and demand in the global market significantly impact the company’s earnings, along with its operational efficiency and cost management.

Harmony Gold Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and growth supported by a high Income Statement score (85) with solid margins and revenue growth. Balance sheet is conservatively levered (Debt/Equity 0.046) with strong ROE (29.82%) reflected in a 78 score. Cash flow is also strong (80) with healthy free cash flow growth and good cash conversion.

Income Statement

Harmony Gold Mining has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 10.37% increase in the latest year, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 39.65% and 19.47% respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 28.99% and 35.54%, indicating efficient operational management. The company has shown consistent improvement over the years, reflecting a positive growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.046, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity is impressive at 29.82%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 62.23%, suggesting a strong equity base. Overall, the company maintains a stable financial position with minimal risk from debt.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is strong, with a free cash flow growth rate of 13.55% and a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.83. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.48 indicates good cash conversion. The company has consistently improved its cash flow generation, supporting its operational and financial stability.

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	73.90B	61.38B	49.27B	42.65B	41.73B
Gross Profit	29.30B	14.15B	9.74B	718.00M	6.08B
EBITDA	26.27B	16.52B	11.05B	3.34B	10.92B
Net Income	14.38B	8.59B	4.82B	-1.05B	5.09B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	77.50B	60.46B	57.24B	46.81B	49.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.10B	4.73B	2.87B	2.45B	2.82B
Total Debt	2.23B	2.29B	6.22B	3.65B	3.36B
Total Liabilities	28.99B	19.51B	22.36B	16.69B	17.82B
Stockholders Equity	48.23B	40.77B	34.76B	30.04B	31.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.79B	7.25B	2.31B	710.00M	4.04B
Operating Cash Flow	22.65B	15.65B	9.95B	6.92B	9.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-11.96B	-8.37B	-10.60B	-6.20B	-8.46B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.21B	-5.43B	1.19B	-1.15B	-4.30B

Harmony Gold Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 20.27
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HMY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.10, below the 50-day MA of 21.50, and above the 200-day MA of 17.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HMY.

Harmony Gold Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HMY	78 Outperform	$12.86B	10.79	32.05%	0.87%	29.08%	72.12%
CDE	76 Outperform	$15.26B	19.33	26.41%	―	72.94%	―
RGLD	74 Outperform	$23.83B	33.10	9.07%	0.77%	28.11%	66.85%
DRD	73 Outperform	$2.93B	0.61	34.09%	1.02%	30.05%	73.40%
HL	66 Neutral	$14.55B	38.89	13.89%	0.07%	45.61%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SBSW	49 Neutral	$10.18B	-34.86	-12.14%	―	6.27%	93.14%

Harmony Gold Mining Corporate Events

Harmony Gold Confirms FY26 Guidance and Cash-Flow Strength Despite H1 Operational Disruptions

On 3 February 2026, Harmony Gold Mining said it expects solid financial results for the six months ended 31 December 2025, as elevated gold prices and strong free cash flow offset temporary operational setbacks including a mill motor failure and deferred gold shipment at Hidden Valley, as well as lower metallurgical recoveries linked to an industry-wide cyanide shortage in South Africa. Despite these headwinds, the company reiterated its full-year 2026 production guidance of 1.4–1.5 million ounces of gold at an all-in-sustaining cost of R1,150,000–R1,220,000 per kilogram and an underground recovered grade above 5.8g/t, while reporting good progress on integrating the high-grade CSA copper mine and advancing the Eva Copper Project, reviewing its capital structure to support long-term growth, and preparing to publish fully integrated interim results on 11 March 2026 alongside active engagement with investors at the upcoming Investing in African Mining Indaba.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Accident at Moab Khotsong Mine

On 20 January 2026, Harmony Gold Mining Company reported that an employee at its Moab Khotsong mine near Orkney in South Africa died in a locomotive-related incident. The company stated that the employee’s family has been informed and that an investigation, led by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, is under way to establish the circumstances surrounding the fatal accident. Chief executive officer Beyers Nel expressed condolences to the worker’s family, friends and colleagues and reiterated Harmony’s commitment to safety and its goal of zero loss of life, underscoring the ongoing operational and reputational importance of safety performance for the miner and its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Harmony Gold Mining Approves Key Resolutions at 2025 AGM

On November 26, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited held its electronic annual general meeting, where all proposed ordinary and special resolutions were approved by the requisite majority of shareholders. This included the election and re-election of directors and committee members, as well as the re-appointment of external auditors. The approval of these resolutions reflects shareholder confidence in the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially strengthening its position in the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Harmony Gold Mining Approves Eva Copper Project Development

On November 24, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the approval of the Final Investment Decision for the Eva Copper Project in Queensland, Australia. The project is expected to produce approximately 65,000 tonnes of copper annually in its initial years and is projected to have a 15-year mine life. The development is strategically important for Harmony as it diversifies its portfolio with copper, complementing its gold production and enhancing cash flow resilience. The project is anticipated to contribute significantly to Queensland’s economy and provide substantial employment opportunities. With a robust technical and financial foundation, the project is set to commence production in the second half of 2028, aligning with a predicted copper supply gap.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.