Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd (HMY)
NYSE:HMY
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Harmony Gold Mining
(NYSE:HMY)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$19.50
▲(4.45% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/02/26
The score is supported by strong financial fundamentals (profitability, low leverage, solid cash generation) and a cheap valuation (low P/E). This is partially offset by weak technical positioning (below key moving averages with negative MACD and sub-50 RSI). Earnings-call commentary is constructive with upgraded guidance, adding support but not enough to overcome the current technical weakness.
Positive Factors
High margins and revenue growth
Consistently high gross, EBITDA and net margins alongside double-digit revenue growth demonstrate durable operational efficiency. These margins provide structural cash flow resilience through commodity cycles, supporting reinvestment in mines, sustaining capital and shareholder returns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Fatal safety incidents
Multiple recent fatalities highlight ongoing safety risks at deep-level operations, inviting sustained regulatory scrutiny and potential operational restrictions. Such incidents can lead to longer-term costs from tighter controls, production interruptions and reputational pressure affecting stakeholder and community relations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High margins and revenue growth
Consistently high gross, EBITDA and net margins alongside double-digit revenue growth demonstrate durable operational efficiency. These margins provide structural cash flow resilience through commodity cycles, supporting reinvestment in mines, sustaining capital and shareholder returns over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.90B
Dividend Yield0.87%
Average Volume (3M)4.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.8
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth31.10%
EPS Growth57.19%
CountryUS
Employees34,715
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)25.38
Shares Outstanding636,798,950
10 Day Avg. Volume5,257,039
30 Day Avg. Volume4,787,421
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.16
Price to Book (P/B)3.22
Price to Sales (P/S)2.10
P/FCF Ratio14.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap17.12
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.17
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.81B
Harmony Gold Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited primarily focuses on the exploration, extraction, and processing of gold, but also actively seeks out deposits of uranium, silver, copper, and molybdenum. The company maintains a significant operational presence...
How the Company Makes Money
Harmony primarily makes money by producing and selling gold. Revenue is generated when mined ore is processed into gold doré (or refined gold via third parties) and sold, with sales typically priced using prevailing market gold prices (often with ...
Harmony Gold Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong beat-and-raise message: material profit growth, margin expansion, loan book reacceleration and demonstrable operating leverage from Stellare 2.0. Management upgraded FY26 guidance and laid out credible product and distribution initiatives (mobile app, auto, revolving credit) to accelerate the customer flywheel. Lowlights were limited and largely manageable: a slight uptick in credit losses (still within target), FX headwinds to reported balances, early-stage nature of new products and modest provisioning adjustments. Funding and liquidity appear well-covered, and the business remains capital-efficient. Overall, the positives — significant profit and margin gains, strong ROE, clear scalability and an upgraded outlook — materially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Record Half-Year Profit
Statutory NPAT of $6.1M for H1 FY26, up 202% year-on-year; cash NPAT also $6.1M (non-cash adjustments netted to 0) and exceeded FY25 full-year cash NPAT of $5.7M (cash NPAT growth cited at 166%).
Negative Updates
Slight Uptick in Credit Losses
Actual credit losses ticked up to 3.9% (management's target range ~3%–4%); while still within range, it's a slight rise versus prior periods and was noted by management as an item to monitor.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Half-Year Profit
Statutory NPAT of $6.1M for H1 FY26, up 202% year-on-year; cash NPAT also $6.1M (non-cash adjustments netted to 0) and exceeded FY25 full-year cash NPAT of $5.7M (cash NPAT growth cited at 166%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management upgraded FY26 cash NPAT guidance to $13.0m (a $1.0m / 8% uplift to prior guidance), which would be a 128% increase on FY25 and implies a 331% CAGR since FY24; the upgrade assumes a year‑end loan book of over $900m, a portfolio NIM of ~10%, risk‑adjusted income of ~6% and reflects an expected ~31% return on equity, driven by Stellare 2.0‑fuelled margin expansion, loan book growth and capital efficiency.Harmony Gold Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 83.32B | 73.90B | 61.38B | 49.27B | 42.65B | 41.73B |
| Gross Profit | 35.25B | 29.30B | 14.15B | 9.74B | 718.00M | 6.08B |
| EBITDA | 36.13B | 26.27B | 16.52B | 11.05B | 3.34B | 10.92B |
| Net Income | 15.81B | 14.38B | 8.59B | 4.82B | -1.05B | 5.09B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 114.52B | 77.50B | 60.46B | 57.24B | 46.81B | 49.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.67B | 13.10B | 4.73B | 2.87B | 2.45B | 2.82B |
| Total Debt | 12.88B | 2.23B | 2.29B | 6.22B | 3.65B | 3.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 62.36B | 28.99B | 19.51B | 22.36B | 16.69B | 17.82B |
| Stockholders Equity | 51.83B | 48.23B | 40.77B | 34.76B | 30.04B | 31.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.87B | 10.79B | 7.25B | 2.31B | 710.00M | 4.04B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 25.66B | 22.65B | 15.65B | 9.95B | 6.92B | 9.18B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.18B | -11.96B | -8.37B | -10.60B | -6.20B | -8.46B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.89B | -2.21B | -5.43B | 1.19B | -1.15B | -4.30B |
Harmony Gold Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
18.67
Price Trends
16.79
Positive
17.63
Negative
17.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
51.98
Neutral
79.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HMY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.84, above the 50-day MA of 16.79, and above the 200-day MA of 17.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HMY.
Harmony Gold Mining Risk Analysis
Harmony Gold Mining disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harmony Gold Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Harmony Gold Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $18.11B | 13.92 | 16.27% | ― | 116.56% | 325.61% | |
76 Outperform | $10.70B | 39.08 | 11.04% | 0.07% | 56.81% | 525.85% | |
73 Outperform | $10.90B | 10.82 | 32.51% | 0.87% | 31.10% | 57.19% | |
73 Outperform | $18.23B | 28.71 | 11.91% | 0.77% | 70.98% | 38.91% | |
67 Neutral | $2.08B | 10.71 | 32.58% | 1.02% | 32.68% | 91.90% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
45 Neutral | $6.95B | -21.95 | -12.94% | ― | 19.11% | 27.86% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
17.01
2.73
19.09%
CDE
Coeur Mining
17.51
8.46
93.50%
DRD
Drdgold
24.37
10.49
75.60%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
15.96
10.15
174.56%
RGLD
Royal Gold
214.82
33.34
18.37%
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater
9.67
2.76
39.94%
Harmony Gold Mining Corporate Events
Harmony Gold Discloses Executive Director’s Share Sale on 28 May 2026
May 29, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining disclosed that executive director H.E. Mashego conducted an on‑market sale of 3,000 Harmony ordinary shares on 28 May 2026, classified as a direct beneficial interest. The shares were sold at a volume‑weighted avera...
Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Shaft Incident at Mponeng Mine
May 26, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining reported that two employees died in a shaft engineering-related incident at its Mponeng mine near Carletonville on the morning of 24 May 2026. The company said it is supporting the affected families and employees, and all relev...
Harmony Gold swings to net cash as strong Q3 underpins FY26 guidance
May 18, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining Company reported a solid operating performance for the nine months to 31 March 2026, highlighted by a strong third quarter from assets including Mponeng, Hidden Valley and Tshepong North, and its 11th consecutive year on track ...
Harmony Gold Wins MSCI ESG Upgrade to ‘A’ Rating
Apr 29, 2026
On 29 April 2026, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced that MSCI upgraded its ESG rating from ‘BB’ to ‘A’ following a March 2026 assessment, reflecting stronger resilience to long-term ESG risks. The company’...
Harmony Gold Discloses Ninety One’s Stake Rising to 5.2%
Apr 20, 2026
On 20 April 2026, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced that asset manager Ninety One (Pty) Ltd. had increased its holding in the miner’s ordinary shares. Ninety One now owns 5.2017% of Harmony’s issued share capital, crossing ...
Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Incident at Target 1 Mine in South Africa
Mar 26, 2026
On 26 March 2026, Harmony Gold Mining reported a fatal incident at its Target 1 underground mine in the Free State, near Odendaalsrus, involving rock-breaking equipment. The event underscores the operational risks inherent in deep-level gold minin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.