Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd (HMY)
NYSE:HMY
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Harmony Gold Mining
(NYSE:HMY)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$18.00
▲(11.39% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
The score is supported by strong financial fundamentals (profitability, low leverage, solid cash generation) and a cheap valuation (low P/E). This is partially offset by weak technical positioning (below key moving averages with negative MACD and sub-50 RSI). Earnings-call commentary is constructive with upgraded guidance, adding support but not enough to overcome the current technical weakness.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability and margins
Sustained, high operating and net margins indicate materially efficient extraction and processing economics. Durable margins support cash generation across cycles, funding of sustaining/growth capex, and the ability to absorb periodic cost shocks without immediate capital raises.
Negative Factors
Fatal safety incidents and regulatory scrutiny
Workplace fatalities in deep-level mining carry lasting operational, regulatory and reputational consequences. Investigations can trigger tighter controls, stoppages or fines, raise insurance and compliance costs, and complicate labour relations, all of which can constrain production and add costs over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitability and margins
Sustained, high operating and net margins indicate materially efficient extraction and processing economics. Durable margins support cash generation across cycles, funding of sustaining/growth capex, and the ability to absorb periodic cost shocks without immediate capital raises.
Read all positive factors
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.27B
Dividend Yield0.87%
Average Volume (3M)5.40M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.5
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth29.08%
EPS Growth72.12%
CountryUS
Employees34,715
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.87
Shares Outstanding636,798,950
10 Day Avg. Volume6,598,865
30 Day Avg. Volume5,398,457
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.16
Price to Book (P/B)3.22
Price to Sales (P/S)2.10
P/FCF Ratio14.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap17.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.05
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.93
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.00Price Target Upside48.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.18B
Harmony Gold Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of gold. It also explores for uranium, silver, copper, and molybdenum deposits. The company has nine underground operations in the Witwatersrand Basin; an o...
How the Company Makes Money
Harmony primarily makes money by producing and selling gold. Revenue is driven by (1) the volume of gold produced and sold (production levels from its mining operations), and (2) the realized gold price, which is influenced by global spot and cont...
Harmony Gold Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong beat-and-raise message: material profit growth, margin expansion, loan book reacceleration and demonstrable operating leverage from Stellare 2.0. Management upgraded FY26 guidance and laid out credible product and distribution initiatives (mobile app, auto, revolving credit) to accelerate the customer flywheel. Lowlights were limited and largely manageable: a slight uptick in credit losses (still within target), FX headwinds to reported balances, early-stage nature of new products and modest provisioning adjustments. Funding and liquidity appear well-covered, and the business remains capital-efficient. Overall, the positives — significant profit and margin gains, strong ROE, clear scalability and an upgraded outlook — materially outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Record Half-Year Profit
Statutory NPAT of $6.1M for H1 FY26, up 202% year-on-year; cash NPAT also $6.1M (non-cash adjustments netted to 0) and exceeded FY25 full-year cash NPAT of $5.7M (cash NPAT growth cited at 166%).
Negative Updates
Slight Uptick in Credit Losses
Actual credit losses ticked up to 3.9% (management's target range ~3%–4%); while still within range, it's a slight rise versus prior periods and was noted by management as an item to monitor.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Half-Year Profit
Statutory NPAT of $6.1M for H1 FY26, up 202% year-on-year; cash NPAT also $6.1M (non-cash adjustments netted to 0) and exceeded FY25 full-year cash NPAT of $5.7M (cash NPAT growth cited at 166%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management upgraded FY26 cash NPAT guidance to $13.0m (a $1.0m / 8% uplift to prior guidance), which would be a 128% increase on FY25 and implies a 331% CAGR since FY24; the upgrade assumes a year‑end loan book of over $900m, a portfolio NIM of ~10%, risk‑adjusted income of ~6% and reflects an expected ~31% return on equity, driven by Stellare 2.0‑fuelled margin expansion, loan book growth and capital efficiency.Harmony Gold Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 83.32B | 73.90B | 61.38B | 49.27B | 42.65B | 41.73B |
| Gross Profit | 35.25B | 29.30B | 14.15B | 9.74B | 718.00M | 6.08B |
| EBITDA | 36.13B | 26.27B | 16.52B | 11.05B | 3.34B | 10.92B |
| Net Income | 15.81B | 14.38B | 8.59B | 4.82B | -1.05B | 5.09B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 114.52B | 77.50B | 60.46B | 57.24B | 46.81B | 49.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.67B | 13.10B | 4.73B | 2.87B | 2.45B | 2.82B |
| Total Debt | 12.88B | 2.23B | 2.29B | 6.22B | 3.65B | 3.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 62.36B | 28.99B | 19.51B | 22.36B | 16.69B | 17.82B |
| Stockholders Equity | 51.83B | 48.23B | 40.77B | 34.76B | 30.04B | 31.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.87B | 10.79B | 7.25B | 2.31B | 710.00M | 4.04B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 25.66B | 22.65B | 15.65B | 9.95B | 6.92B | 9.18B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.18B | -11.96B | -8.37B | -10.60B | -6.20B | -8.46B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.89B | -2.21B | -5.43B | 1.19B | -1.15B | -4.30B |
Harmony Gold Mining Technical Analysis
Negative
16.16
Price Trends
19.46
Negative
19.45
Negative
17.59
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.57
Negative
42.72
Neutral
66.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HMY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.92, below the 50-day MA of 19.46, and below the 200-day MA of 17.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HMY.
Harmony Gold Mining Risk Analysis
Harmony Gold Mining disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harmony Gold Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Harmony Gold Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $10.27B | 5.53 | 32.51% | 0.87% | 29.08% | 72.12% | |
73 Outperform | $2.65B | 0.61 | 32.58% | 1.02% | 30.05% | 73.40% | |
70 Outperform | $19.77B | 19.33 | 19.56% | ― | 72.94% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $12.86B | 38.89 | 13.65% | 0.07% | 45.61% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $22.42B | 33.10 | 10.92% | 0.77% | 28.11% | 66.85% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | $8.80B | -34.86 | -12.94% | ― | 6.27% | 93.14% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
16.16
1.19
7.94%
CDE
Coeur Mining
19.11
13.36
232.35%
DRD
Drdgold
30.77
15.36
99.62%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
19.18
13.57
241.89%
RGLD
Royal Gold
264.35
101.36
62.19%
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater
12.41
7.98
180.33%
Harmony Gold Mining Corporate Events
Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Incident at Target 1 Mine in South Africa
Mar 26, 2026
On 26 March 2026, Harmony Gold Mining reported a fatal incident at its Target 1 underground mine in the Free State, near Odendaalsrus, involving rock-breaking equipment. The event underscores the operational risks inherent in deep-level gold minin...
Harmony Gold Doubles Interim Dividend as Copper Expansion Lifts H1FY26 Earnings
Mar 11, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited, a South African-based gold producer listed in Johannesburg and New York, is steadily evolving into a dual gold-and-copper miner, with gold remaining core while copper becomes an increasingly important growth ve...
Harmony Gold Doubles Interim Dividend as Higher Gold Price Fuels Earnings and Copper Growth
Mar 11, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining reported interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2025 on 11 March 2026, showing it remains on track to meet full-year production, grade and cost guidance despite a 9% drop in group gold output and an 11% decline in...
Harmony Gold flags double-digit profit surge on higher gold price and MAC Copper deal
Mar 9, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited, a South African-based gold producer with growing copper exposure, reported that its underlying fundamentals remained strong across its portfolio during the six months ended 31 December 2025. The company continu...
Harmony Gold Confirms FY26 Guidance and Cash-Flow Strength Despite H1 Operational Disruptions
Feb 3, 2026
On 3 February 2026, Harmony Gold Mining said it expects solid financial results for the six months ended 31 December 2025, as elevated gold prices and strong free cash flow offset temporary operational setbacks including a mill motor failure and d...
Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Accident at Moab Khotsong Mine
Jan 20, 2026
On 20 January 2026, Harmony Gold Mining Company reported that an employee at its Moab Khotsong mine near Orkney in South Africa died in a locomotive-related incident. The company stated that the employee’s family has been informed and that a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.