Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.21B
• Dividend Yield: 0.87%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.99M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.71
• Revenue Growth: 29.08%
• EPS Growth: 72.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34,715
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.57
• Shares Outstanding: 636,798,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,271,067
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,989,524
• PEG Ratio: 0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 15.22
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.93
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.38
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.24
• 1Y Price Target: $20.00
• Price Target Upside: -6.28% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $27.00 ▲(26.52% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability, low leverage, and solid cash generation) and supportive bullish technicals with price above all key moving averages. The rating is tempered by only moderate valuation support (P/E ~18 and low dividend yield) and earnings-call risks around rising costs and operational/safety headwinds.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Extremely low leverage and a strong equity base provide durable financial flexibility: supports funding of sustaining/growth capex, dividends and acquisitions without relying on costly external debt, lowering solvency risk through commodity cycles and enabling opportunistic investments.

Robust cash generation

Sustained free cash flow growth and a record cash generation position the company to self-fund operations, pay dividends and pursue strategic projects. Strong cash conversion reduces dependence on external financing and smooths capital allocation through commodity price volatility.

Strategic portfolio diversification into copper

Moving into copper via MAC acquisition and Eva Copper FID diversifies revenue beyond gold, aligning with long-term demand from electrification. This reduces single-commodity exposure, improves resilience to gold price swings, and leverages existing project execution capabilities.

Negative Factors

Repeated safety incidents

Fatal incidents and prior safety issues create structural operational and reputational risks: heightened regulatory scrutiny, potential work stoppages, rising compliance costs and morale impacts can erode long-term productivity and complicate permiting and contractor relationships.

Rising all-in sustaining costs

Material cost inflation and higher sustaining costs compress margins even if commodity prices stay firm. Persistently elevated AISC reduces free cash flow per ounce, limits reinvestment capacity, and can make lower-grade or growth projects less economic over the medium term.

Medium-term production risk at Moab Khotsong

A forecast production gap at a major operation introduces multi-year output uncertainty, affecting long-term revenue and mine plan continuity. Delays force reliance on other assets or slower ramp-up of projects, increasing execution risk and potentially raising unit costs across the portfolio.

Harmony Gold Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of gold. It also explores for uranium, silver, copper, and molybdenum deposits. The company has nine underground operations in the Witwatersrand Basin; an open-pit mine on the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt; and various surface treatment operations in South Africa. It also owns interests in the Hidden Valley, an open-pit gold and silver mine; and Wafi-Golpu, a project in Morobe Province in Papua New Guinea. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Randfontein, South Africa.

How the Company Makes Money

Harmony Gold Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced from its mining operations. The company's revenue model is centered on extracting gold from its mines, which is then sold at prevailing market prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold bullion, which constitutes the majority of its income, as well as the sale of by-products such as copper and silver. Additionally, Harmony may generate revenue through strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and investments in mining projects that enhance its operational capacity. Fluctuations in gold prices and demand in the global market significantly impact the company’s earnings, along with its operational efficiency and cost management.

Harmony Gold Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and growth supported by a high Income Statement score (85) with solid margins and revenue growth. Balance sheet is conservatively levered (Debt/Equity 0.046) with strong ROE (29.82%) reflected in a 78 score. Cash flow is also strong (80) with healthy free cash flow growth and good cash conversion.

Income Statement

Harmony Gold Mining has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 10.37% increase in the latest year, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 39.65% and 19.47% respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 28.99% and 35.54%, indicating efficient operational management. The company has shown consistent improvement over the years, reflecting a positive growth trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.046, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity is impressive at 29.82%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 62.23%, suggesting a strong equity base. Overall, the company maintains a stable financial position with minimal risk from debt.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is strong, with a free cash flow growth rate of 13.55% and a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.83. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.48 indicates good cash conversion. The company has consistently improved its cash flow generation, supporting its operational and financial stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2023	Dec 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue	73.90B	73.90B	61.38B	49.27B	49.27B	49.27B
Gross Profit	29.30B	29.30B	14.15B	9.74B	9.74B	9.74B
EBITDA	26.27B	26.27B	16.52B	11.05B	11.05B	11.05B
Net Income	14.38B	14.38B	8.59B	4.82B	4.82B	4.82B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	77.50B	77.50B	60.46B	57.24B	57.24B	57.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.10B	13.10B	4.73B	2.87B	2.87B	2.87B
Total Debt	2.23B	2.23B	2.29B	6.22B	6.22B	6.22B
Total Liabilities	28.99B	28.99B	19.51B	22.36B	22.36B	22.36B
Stockholders Equity	48.23B	48.23B	40.77B	34.76B	34.76B	34.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.79B	10.79B	7.25B	2.31B	2.31B	2.31B
Operating Cash Flow	22.65B	22.65B	15.65B	9.95B	9.95B	9.95B
Investing Cash Flow	-11.96B	-11.96B	-8.37B	-10.60B	-10.60B	-10.60B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.21B	-2.21B	-5.43B	1.19B	1.19B	1.19B

Harmony Gold Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 21.34
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HMY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.23, above the 50-day MA of 20.60, and above the 200-day MA of 16.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HMY.

Harmony Gold Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HMY	78 Outperform	$14.21B	19.24	32.05%	0.87%	29.08%	72.12%
HL	75 Outperform	$15.09B	86.69	8.88%	0.07%	45.61%	―
RGLD	75 Outperform	$22.22B	40.03	14.90%	0.77%	28.11%	66.85%
DRD	73 Outperform	$2.82B	24.79	28.10%	1.02%	30.05%	73.40%
CDE	67 Neutral	$13.12B	29.97	19.57%	―	72.94%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SBSW	57 Neutral	$12.94B	-61.83	-8.31%	―	6.27%	93.14%

Harmony Gold Mining Corporate Events

Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Accident at Moab Khotsong Mine

On 20 January 2026, Harmony Gold Mining Company reported that an employee at its Moab Khotsong mine near Orkney in South Africa died in a locomotive-related incident. The company stated that the employee’s family has been informed and that an investigation, led by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, is under way to establish the circumstances surrounding the fatal accident. Chief executive officer Beyers Nel expressed condolences to the worker’s family, friends and colleagues and reiterated Harmony’s commitment to safety and its goal of zero loss of life, underscoring the ongoing operational and reputational importance of safety performance for the miner and its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Harmony Gold Mining Approves Key Resolutions at 2025 AGM

On November 26, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited held its electronic annual general meeting, where all proposed ordinary and special resolutions were approved by the requisite majority of shareholders. This included the election and re-election of directors and committee members, as well as the re-appointment of external auditors. The approval of these resolutions reflects shareholder confidence in the company’s governance and strategic direction, potentially strengthening its position in the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Harmony Gold Mining Approves Eva Copper Project Development

On November 24, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the approval of the Final Investment Decision for the Eva Copper Project in Queensland, Australia. The project is expected to produce approximately 65,000 tonnes of copper annually in its initial years and is projected to have a 15-year mine life. The development is strategically important for Harmony as it diversifies its portfolio with copper, complementing its gold production and enhancing cash flow resilience. The project is anticipated to contribute significantly to Queensland’s economy and provide substantial employment opportunities. With a robust technical and financial foundation, the project is set to commence production in the second half of 2028, aligning with a predicted copper supply gap.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Harmony Gold Reports Strong Q1FY26 Performance and Strategic Copper Acquisition

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported a strong operational performance for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, with significant improvements in safety, operational excellence, and financial metrics. The company achieved a loss-of-life-free quarter, improved its lost-time injury frequency rate, and saw a 20% increase in gold revenue due to a higher gold price. Notably, Harmony completed the acquisition of MAC Copper, marking a strategic move to expand its copper portfolio, which is essential for the global energy transition. The acquisition supports Harmony’s strategy to grow as a global gold and copper producer, reinforcing its role in the renewable energy sector and positioning it for long-term demand. The company’s balance sheet remains robust, with increased cash flow and liquidity, enabling continued investment in growth projects and operational resilience.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Harmony Gold Files Annual Report with SEC

On November 3, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the filing of its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. This filing, which was completed on October 31, 2025, is a significant step in maintaining transparency and compliance with international financial reporting standards, potentially impacting the company’s operations and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.

Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Incident at Mponeng Mine

On October 27, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported a tragic incident at its Mponeng mine, resulting in the loss of life of an electrician during routine maintenance on October 26, 2025. The company expressed condolences to the bereaved family and initiated a full investigation in collaboration with the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. Harmony reiterated its commitment to safety and proactive measures to ensure a culture of care across its operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Buy with a $20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Harmony Gold Mining stock, see the HMY Stock Forecast page.