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Sibanye Stillwater
(NYSE:SBSW)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▼(-38.41% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/07/26
The score is primarily held back by weak and volatile financial performance (continued net losses, higher leverage than prior-cycle, inconsistent free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings-call signals are directionally constructive (improving leverage, restored dividend, disciplined 2026 spending) but are offset by impairments, one-off cash impacts, and operational/safety risks; valuation is only modestly supported by the dividend given negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Leverage reduction
A sharp reduction in net leverage meaningfully improves financial flexibility and covenant headroom. Lower net debt/EBITDA enhances the company's ability to refinance the 2026 bond, prioritize gross debt cuts, fund staged capex and dividends, and better withstand commodity price volatility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Large impairments
Material impairments indicate weaker long‑term recoverable values for key assets, reducing book equity and distributable reserves. They reflect downgraded life‑of‑mine assumptions and long‑term price sensitivity, constraining future capital allocation and signaling persistent structural risks in affected operations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Leverage reduction
A sharp reduction in net leverage meaningfully improves financial flexibility and covenant headroom. Lower net debt/EBITDA enhances the company's ability to refinance the 2026 bond, prioritize gross debt cuts, fund staged capex and dividends, and better withstand commodity price volatility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.89B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.59M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.33
Revenue Growth19.11%
EPS Growth27.86%
CountryUS
Employees57,857
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-7.24
Shares Outstanding707,641,850
10 Day Avg. Volume5,498,353
30 Day Avg. Volume5,589,309
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.11
Price to Book (P/B)4.23
Price to Sales (P/S)1.29
P/FCF Ratio99.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap25.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.79
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.25Price Target Upside25.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.62B
Sibanye Stillwater Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, along with its various subsidiaries, functions as a prominent precious metals mining entity with operations spanning South Africa, the United States, Zimbabwe, Canada, and Argentina. The company's primary outputs encomp...
How the Company Makes Money
Sibanye Stillwater makes money primarily by producing and selling mined metals and related concentrates, with revenue largely tied to realized commodity prices and production volumes.
Key revenue streams:
1) PGM sales (major driver): The company ...
Sibanye Stillwater Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive operational and financial turnaround: strong commodity price tailwinds, record/near‑record EBITDA, a substantial reduction in leverage, restored dividend, and clear progress on sustainability and mechanization programs. These positives are tempered by significant one-off cash impacts (Appian settlement, hedge losses), material impairments (ZAR 15.8bn) and safety‑driven production cuts (notably at Kloof) including six fatalities. Viewed holistically the improvements in core cash generation, balance sheet strength and a disciplined capital allocation framework suggest the company has strengthened its position while addressing legacy and project risks.Positive Updates
Record EBITDA and Strong Earnings Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA rose to just under ZAR 38 billion (up ~189% from ZAR 13 billion), the highest in three years; headline earnings per share increased 281% to ZAR 244 cents, driven by stronger commodity prices and operational performance.
Negative Updates
Large Impairments and Non‑cash Charges
Total impairments at Kloof, US PGM operations and Keliber amounted to ZAR 15.8 billion due to life-of-mine reductions and changes in long-term price assumptions; these materially impacted reported earnings.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record EBITDA and Strong Earnings Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA rose to just under ZAR 38 billion (up ~189% from ZAR 13 billion), the highest in three years; headline earnings per share increased 281% to ZAR 244 cents, driven by stronger commodity prices and operational performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance foresees SA PGM production marginally down (life‑of‑mine profile) and SA gold guidance slightly lower (Kloof impact), a small increase in U.S. underground PGM output as the business targets ~$1,000/oz unit costs, recycling production of 400,000–420,000oz gold‑equivalent, and Keliber ramping to at least 15,000–20,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate with 2026 Keliber spend guided at EUR180–190m (≈EUR90m remaining project capital); group growth capital (ex‑DRD) is ZAR3.7bn (vs ZAR9.4bn in 2025), a 50% gross‑debt reduction over 2–3 years is a priority, net debt/adjusted EBITDA was 0.59x at end‑2025 (gross debt ZAR39bn, cash ZAR17bn, net ZAR22bn), liquidity headroom ≈ZAR40bn (~5.5 months OpEx+CapEx), the Board declared a ZAR131cps dividend (~2% yield), and management plans to refinance the $675m 2026 bond in H1 2026.Sibanye Stillwater Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 129.68B | 112.13B | 113.68B | 138.29B | 172.19B |
| Gross Profit | 41.24B | 6.30B | 12.78B | 34.83B | 60.17B |
| EBITDA | 19.39B | 164.00M | -27.52B | 37.13B | 57.61B |
| Net Income | -5.17B | -7.30B | -37.77B | 18.40B | 33.05B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 149.59B | 137.99B | 142.94B | 166.63B | 152.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.16B | 16.05B | 25.56B | 26.08B | 30.29B |
| Total Debt | 43.90B | 42.06B | 41.01B | 23.05B | 20.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 105.47B | 89.70B | 91.33B | 75.63B | 71.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.49B | 43.98B | 48.73B | 91.00B | 79.39B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.69B | -11.28B | -15.32B | -356.00M | 19.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 20.49B | 10.29B | 7.09B | 15.54B | 32.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -20.52B | -24.34B | -22.04B | -17.37B | -14.57B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.31B | 4.56B | 12.98B | -3.50B | -8.34B |
Sibanye Stillwater Technical Analysis
Negative
13.80
Price Trends
10.78
Negative
12.10
Negative
12.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.66
Negative
37.36
Neutral
38.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBSW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.15, above the 50-day MA of 10.78, and above the 200-day MA of 12.67, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SBSW.
Sibanye Stillwater Risk Analysis
Sibanye Stillwater disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sibanye Stillwater reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sibanye Stillwater Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $30.26B | 8.29 | 50.82% | 1.51% | 68.87% | 187.55% | |
76 Outperform | $10.59B | 38.52 | 11.04% | 0.07% | 56.81% | 525.85% | |
73 Outperform | $9.40B | 9.59 | 32.51% | 0.87% | 31.10% | 57.19% | |
70 Outperform | $41.37B | 12.01 | 43.79% | 2.82% | ― | ― | |
67 Neutral | $1.81B | 9.43 | 32.58% | 1.02% | 32.68% | 91.90% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
45 Neutral | $5.89B | -18.90 | -12.94% | ― | 19.11% | 27.86% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater
8.55
0.48
5.91%
DRD
Drdgold
21.10
7.70
57.51%
GFI
Gold Fields
34.14
10.74
45.88%
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
15.11
0.77
5.35%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
15.82
9.51
150.63%
AU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
82.10
37.46
83.90%
Sibanye Stillwater Corporate Events
Sibanye Stillwater Files July 2026 Form 6-K with U.S. Regulators
Jul 1, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, a foreign private issuer in the mining sector, filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated 1 July 2026, confirming its status as a Form 20-F filer and providing its South African principal ex...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K and Market Release with U.S. SEC
Jul 1, 2026
On July 1, 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of its obligations as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The filing, signed by Chief Financial O...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Market Release with U.S. SEC
Jun 30, 2026
On 30 June 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter,...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Notice of Market Release with U.S. SEC
Jun 23, 2026
On 23 June 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer, confirming its ongoing compliance with U.S. reporting requirements under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Market Release with U.S. SEC on 10 June 2026
Jun 10, 2026
On 10 June 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, primarily served as a formal submission of a mar...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine Form 6-K with U.S. SEC on 3 June 2026
Jun 3, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited has filed a Form 6-K report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated 3 June 2026, reaffirming its status as a foreign private issuer that files annual reports under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Fi...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K to Maintain U.S. Market Disclosure Compliance
Jun 2, 2026
On 2 June 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, ...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K with U.S. SEC on May 29, 2026
May 29, 2026
On May 29, 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a report of a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Ke...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine Form 6-K with U.S. SEC
May 20, 2026
On 20 May 2026, Sibanye Stillwater filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer that reports annually on Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter,...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Notice of Market Release
May 13, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited submitted a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer that files annual reports on Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Office...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K with SEC on 11 May 2026
May 11, 2026
On 11 May 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its ongoing obligations as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The filing, signed by Chief Fin...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Market Release with U.S. SEC
May 8, 2026
On 8 May 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of its ongoing obligations as a foreign private issuer. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, formally submit...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine Form 6-K with U.S. SEC
May 7, 2026
On 7 May 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its ongoing status as a foreign private issuer and compliance with U.S. reporting obligations. The filing, signed by Chief Fina...
Sibanye Stillwater Delivers Sharp Q1 2026 Earnings Rebound and Completes Keliber Lithium Construction
May 6, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater reported a strong operating performance for the quarter ended 31 March 2026, with no fatalities and improvements across all safety indicators, underscoring progress on operational discipline. Group adjusted EBITDA surged 371% ye...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6‑K Notice With U.S. SEC
May 6, 2026
On 6 May 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited submitted a Form 6‑K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer that files annual reports under Form 20‑F. The filing, signed by Chief Fin...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Report with U.S. SEC on 4 May 2026
May 4, 2026
On 4 May 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of its ongoing reporting obligations as a foreign private issuer. The submission, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, c...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine Form 6-K with SEC on 28 April 2026
Apr 28, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited is a South African mining company focused primarily on precious metals, including platinum group metals and gold. The group operates internationally, with its securities registered in the United States and reporting obli...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine Form 6-K with SEC on 24 April 2026
Apr 24, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater on 24 April 2026 filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, primarily serv...
Sibanye Stillwater Files April 24, 2026 Form 6-K with U.S. SEC
Apr 24, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, the South African precious metals miner, filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated 24 April 2026, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, si...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K and Market Release with U.S. SEC
Apr 20, 2026
On 20 April 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, primarily serves as a cover submission indicati...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.