Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.94B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 7.01M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.99
• Revenue Growth: 6.27%
• EPS Growth: 93.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 57,857
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.43
• Shares Outstanding: 707,641,850
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,674,323
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,014,224
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.39
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 17.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.07
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.20
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -507.00
• 1Y Price Target: $21.40
• Price Target Upside: 26.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: $17.50 ▲(3.67% Upside)

The score is held back mainly by weak financial performance (recent losses, pressured free cash flow, and rising leverage) and limited valuation support (negative P/E and no dividend). Offsetting these, technicals are relatively constructive and the latest earnings call showed strong EBITDA improvement and low leverage, though operational, safety, and impairment-related risks keep the outlook moderate.

Positive Factors

Diversified metals portfolio

Sibanye Stillwater's exposure across PGMs, gold and lithium (including recycling) reduces dependence on a single commodity. This structural diversification supports more stable cash flows and optionality to capture secular demand from auto catalysts and batteries over the next several months.

Low net leverage

A sub-1x net debt/EBITDA ratio provides durable financial flexibility to fund operations, invest in projects, and withstand commodity cycles. Low leverage lowers refinancing risk and preserves capacity for capital allocation over a 2-6 month horizon and beyond.

Renewable energy initiatives

Operational renewable projects materially cut energy costs and carbon intensity, improving long-term cost structure and ESG credentials. Lower energy expense and emissions reduce operating volatility and support sustainable margins amid regulatory and stakeholder pressure.

Negative Factors

Negative free cash flow trend

Recent negative free cash flow indicates limited internal funding for capex, dividends or debt reduction without asset sales or external financing. Persisting FCF pressure can constrain strategic flexibility and raise liquidity risks over the medium term.

Operational and safety risks at Kloof

Heightened seismicity and infrastructure limits at major gold operations create ongoing production volatility and higher operating costs. These are structural operational risks that can depress volumes and margins and require sustained CAPEX or operational changes to remediate.

Large Keliber impairment

A substantial impairment on the Keliber lithium project signals weak lithium demand/pricing and execution risk. This reduces asset value, limits near-term growth in battery metals, and may constrain future investment or returns from the company's lithium strategy.

Sibanye Stillwater Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Zimbabwe, Canada, and Argentina. The company produces gold; platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, platinum, and rhodium; and by-products, such as iridium, ruthenium, nickel, copper, and chrome. It owns the East Boulder and Stillwater mines located in Montana, the United States; and Columbus metallurgical complex, which smelts the material mined to produce PGM-rich filter cake, as well as conducts PGM recycling activities. The company is also involved in the Kroondal, Rustenburg, Marikana, and Platinum Mile operations situated in South Africa; Mimosa located on the southern portion in Zimbabwe; the Driefontein, Kloof, and Cooke surface operations located on the West Rand of the Witwatersrand Basin; and the Beatrix situated in the southern Free State. In addition, it owns an interest in surface tailings retreatment facilities; the Marathon PGM project in Ontario, Canada; the Altar and Rio Grande copper gold projects in the Andes in north-west Argentina; the Hoedspruit; and the Burnstone and southern Free State gold projects in South Africa. Sibanye Stillwater Limited was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Weltevreden Park, South Africa.

How the Company Makes Money

Sibanye Stillwater generates revenue through the sale of precious metals, primarily gold, platinum, palladium, and rhodium. The company operates various mining and processing facilities, enabling it to extract and refine these metals for sale in the global market. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of mined metals, as well as revenue from recycling operations, particularly in the automotive sector where precious metals are used in catalytic converters. Additionally, Sibanye Stillwater has established strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational efficiency and market reach. The company's profitability is influenced by the global prices of precious metals, which can fluctuate based on demand, economic conditions, and geopolitical factors.

Sibanye Stillwater Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: the income statement shows declining revenue and recent losses (negative margins), cash flow has turned to negative free cash flow, while the balance sheet remains supported by a solid equity base despite rising leverage.

Income Statement

Sibanye Stillwater's income statement reveals a volatile financial performance. The company experienced a decline in total revenue from 2020 to 2024, with significant swings in net income, moving from substantial profits to losses. The net profit margin has been negative over the last two years, indicating profitability challenges. Despite a high EBIT margin in earlier years, recent EBIT figures show weakening performance. Overall, the company's revenue growth and profitability are under pressure.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Sibanye Stillwater reflects a strong equity position, with stockholders' equity maintaining a substantial proportion of total assets, indicating a solid equity ratio. However, the increase in total debt over the years has led to a higher debt-to-equity ratio, indicating growing leverage. The return on equity has been negatively impacted by recent losses, although it was strong in earlier years. Overall, the balance sheet presents a stable equity base but rising leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows fluctuating free cash flow, with recent negative figures indicating challenges in generating excess cash. Operating cash flow has been positive, but the free cash flow to net income ratio has been adversely affected by net losses. The operating cash flow to net income ratio demonstrated better stability in earlier periods. The cash flow trajectory indicates potential liquidity constraints if negative trends persist.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	111.69B	112.13B	113.68B	138.29B	172.19B	127.39B
Gross Profit	25.08B	6.30B	12.78B	34.83B	60.17B	42.26B
EBITDA	-455.00M	164.00M	-27.52B	37.13B	57.61B	45.42B
Net Income	-3.42B	-7.30B	-37.77B	18.40B	33.05B	29.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	144.70B	137.99B	142.94B	166.63B	152.99B	134.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	21.01B	16.05B	25.56B	26.08B	30.29B	20.24B
Total Debt	42.86B	42.06B	41.01B	23.05B	20.58B	18.71B
Total Liabilities	100.35B	89.70B	91.33B	75.63B	71.65B	63.39B
Stockholders Equity	40.37B	43.98B	48.73B	91.00B	79.39B	67.94B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-439.00M	-11.28B	-15.32B	-356.00M	19.52B	17.53B
Operating Cash Flow	19.52B	10.29B	7.09B	15.54B	32.26B	27.15B
Investing Cash Flow	-19.32B	-24.34B	-22.04B	-17.37B	-14.57B	-9.94B
Financing Cash Flow	5.69B	4.56B	12.98B	-3.50B	-8.34B	-2.24B

Sibanye Stillwater Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 16.88
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBSW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 16.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.39, above the 50-day MA of 14.87, and above the 200-day MA of 9.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SBSW.

Sibanye Stillwater Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HMY	78 Outperform	$14.21B	16.75	32.05%	0.87%	29.08%	72.12%
GFI	77 Outperform	$47.11B	23.80	35.09%	1.51%	49.62%	195.39%
HL	75 Outperform	$15.09B	74.18	8.88%	0.07%	45.61%	―
DRD	73 Outperform	$2.82B	22.23	28.10%	1.02%	30.05%	73.40%
AU	69 Neutral	$46.89B	39.79	―	2.82%	26.43%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SBSW	57 Neutral	$12.94B	-61.83	-8.31%	―	6.27%	93.14%

Sibanye Stillwater Corporate Events

Sibanye Stillwater Sets Out Future-Focused Metals Strategy in January 2026 Update

On 29 January 2026, Sibanye Stillwater released a strategy update presentation outlining its plan to position itself as a high-performing, future-focused metals business centred on performance excellence and the supply of metals critical to clean energy and global industrial progress. The update highlighted how the group has expanded its life-of-mine profile since 2012, diversified earnings from a gold-focused base into a mix led by PGMs and increasingly battery metals, and built a geographically balanced footprint that generated R88 billion in revenue across South Africa, the Americas, Europe and Australia in the nine months to 30 September 2025. Management stressed that combining primary mining with secondary mining and recycling is intended to support the circular economy, improve supply resilience for customers and enhance capital returns for shareholders, while continuing to deliver “shared value” through substantial employment, procurement, tax contributions and environmental initiatives such as renewable energy deployment and emissions reductions.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBSW) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sibanye Stillwater stock, see the SBSW Stock Forecast page.

Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K with SEC on 29 January 2026

In a filing dated 29 January 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited submitted a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer that reports under Form 20-F and operates from its South African headquarters in Weltevreden Park. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, primarily serves as a procedural submission indicating that a separate market release has been issued as an exhibit, but provides no substantive operational or financial details within the text itself, limiting immediate insight into the impact on the company’s business or stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBSW) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sibanye Stillwater stock, see the SBSW Stock Forecast page.

Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Report with SEC on 28 January 2026

On 28 January 2026, South African miner Sibanye Stillwater Limited, a foreign private issuer listed in the United States, filed a Form 6-K report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter. The filing, which references a separate market release as an exhibit, formally records the company’s latest disclosure to U.S. investors but does not itself provide operational, financial, or strategic details of Sibanye Stillwater’s activities or the contents of the referenced market release.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBSW) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sibanye Stillwater stock, see the SBSW Stock Forecast page.

Sibanye Stillwater Files January 2026 Form 6-K with SEC

On 19 January 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its ongoing status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The submission, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, primarily serves as a procedural filing that furnishes a separate market release to U.S. investors, underscoring the company’s continued compliance with U.S. disclosure obligations rather than announcing any new operational or strategic developments.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBSW) stock is a Hold with a $18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sibanye Stillwater stock, see the SBSW Stock Forecast page.

Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine SEC Form 6-K Report

On December 2, 2025, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K report with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter. This filing is a routine disclosure under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, indicating compliance with regulatory requirements and providing transparency to stakeholders about the company’s financial and operational status.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBSW) stock is a Hold with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sibanye Stillwater stock, see the SBSW Stock Forecast page.

Sibanye Stillwater Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance

Sibanye Stillwater Limited reported a robust operating performance for the quarter ended 30 September 2025, with a notable year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA by 198% to R9.9 billion (US$560 million). The company’s South African PGM operations saw a 213% rise in adjusted EBITDA, while the US PGM operations also showed significant improvement post-restructuring. The company’s decarbonization strategy is progressing, with two renewable energy projects achieving commercial operation in 2025, resulting in energy savings and reduced carbon emissions.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBSW) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sibanye Stillwater stock, see the SBSW Stock Forecast page.

Sibanye Stillwater Releases Market Update

Sibanye Stillwater Limited, a prominent player in the mining industry, has released a market announcement dated November 10, 2025. The announcement was signed by Charl Keyter, the Chief Financial Officer, and is part of the company’s ongoing compliance with the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This release is expected to provide stakeholders with insights into the company’s current market positioning and operational updates.

The most recent analyst rating on (SBSW) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sibanye Stillwater stock, see the SBSW Stock Forecast page.