Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW)
NYSE:SBSW
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Sibanye Stillwater
(NYSE:SBSW)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(0.67% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/23/26
The score is held down primarily by weak and volatile financial performance (recent losses, higher leverage than earlier-cycle levels, and uneven free-cash-flow conversion). Technicals are mixed with softer near-term momentum despite a stronger longer-term trend, while valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings. The earnings call adds support via stronger EBITDA and improved leverage, but is tempered by impairments, one-off cash impacts, and material operational/safety risks.
Positive Factors
Record EBITDA and operational rebound
A near‑record adjusted EBITDA reflects sustained operational recovery and stronger underlying margins across core businesses. Durable improvement in EBITDA supports cash generation capacity, funds reinvestment and dividends, and provides a buffer to absorb cyclical commodity swings over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage versus prior cycle
Leverage has risen materially versus the prior strong balance sheet era, increasing financial risk if metal prices or operating cashflows weaken. Higher debt levels reduce operational flexibility, raise interest exposure and limit the company's ability to fund large projects or weather prolonged commodity downturns without further balance sheet action.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record EBITDA and operational rebound
A near‑record adjusted EBITDA reflects sustained operational recovery and stronger underlying margins across core businesses. Durable improvement in EBITDA supports cash generation capacity, funds reinvestment and dividends, and provides a buffer to absorb cyclical commodity swings over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.51B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.00M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth6.27%
EPS Growth93.14%
CountryUS
Employees57,857
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.55
Shares Outstanding707,641,850
10 Day Avg. Volume4,234,705
30 Day Avg. Volume5,999,458
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.02
Price to Book (P/B)4.23
Price to Sales (P/S)1.39
P/FCF Ratio99.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap18.96
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.43Price Target Upside52.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)3.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.47B
Sibanye Stillwater Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Zimbabwe, Canada, and Argentina. The company produces gold; platinum group metals (PGMs), including pallad...
How the Company Makes Money
Sibanye Stillwater primarily makes money by producing and selling mined and processed metals, with revenue largely determined by sales volumes and prevailing commodity prices.
Key revenue streams:
1) PGM sales (major driver): The company mines PG...
Sibanye Stillwater Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive operational and financial turnaround: strong commodity price tailwinds, record/near‑record EBITDA, a substantial reduction in leverage, restored dividend, and clear progress on sustainability and mechanization programs. These positives are tempered by significant one-off cash impacts (Appian settlement, hedge losses), material impairments (ZAR 15.8bn) and safety‑driven production cuts (notably at Kloof) including six fatalities. Viewed holistically the improvements in core cash generation, balance sheet strength and a disciplined capital allocation framework suggest the company has strengthened its position while addressing legacy and project risks.Positive Updates
Record EBITDA and Strong Earnings Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA rose to just under ZAR 38 billion (up ~189% from ZAR 13 billion), the highest in three years; headline earnings per share increased 281% to ZAR 244 cents, driven by stronger commodity prices and operational performance.
Negative Updates
Large Impairments and Non‑cash Charges
Total impairments at Kloof, US PGM operations and Keliber amounted to ZAR 15.8 billion due to life-of-mine reductions and changes in long-term price assumptions; these materially impacted reported earnings.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record EBITDA and Strong Earnings Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA rose to just under ZAR 38 billion (up ~189% from ZAR 13 billion), the highest in three years; headline earnings per share increased 281% to ZAR 244 cents, driven by stronger commodity prices and operational performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's 2026 guidance foresees SA PGM production marginally down (life‑of‑mine profile) and SA gold guidance slightly lower (Kloof impact), a small increase in U.S. underground PGM output as the business targets ~$1,000/oz unit costs, recycling production of 400,000–420,000oz gold‑equivalent, and Keliber ramping to at least 15,000–20,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate with 2026 Keliber spend guided at EUR180–190m (≈EUR90m remaining project capital); group growth capital (ex‑DRD) is ZAR3.7bn (vs ZAR9.4bn in 2025), a 50% gross‑debt reduction over 2–3 years is a priority, net debt/adjusted EBITDA was 0.59x at end‑2025 (gross debt ZAR39bn, cash ZAR17bn, net ZAR22bn), liquidity headroom ≈ZAR40bn (~5.5 months OpEx+CapEx), the Board declared a ZAR131cps dividend (~2% yield), and management plans to refinance the $675m 2026 bond in H1 2026.Sibanye Stillwater Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 120.10B | 112.13B | 113.68B | 138.29B | 172.19B |
| Gross Profit | 28.61B | 6.30B | 12.78B | 34.83B | 60.17B |
| EBITDA | 31.78B | 164.00M | -27.52B | 37.13B | 57.61B |
| Net Income | -4.79B | -7.30B | -37.77B | 18.40B | 33.05B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 149.59B | 137.99B | 142.94B | 166.63B | 152.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.16B | 16.05B | 25.56B | 26.08B | 30.29B |
| Total Debt | 44.34B | 42.06B | 41.01B | 23.05B | 20.58B |
| Total Liabilities | 105.47B | 89.70B | 91.33B | 75.63B | 71.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.49B | 43.98B | 48.73B | 91.00B | 79.39B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.69B | -11.28B | -15.32B | -356.00M | 19.52B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 20.49B | 10.29B | 7.09B | 15.54B | 32.26B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -20.52B | -24.34B | -22.04B | -17.37B | -14.57B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.31B | 4.56B | 12.98B | -3.50B | -8.34B |
Sibanye Stillwater Technical Analysis
Positive
13.41
Price Trends
14.05
Negative
14.35
Negative
11.85
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.17
Negative
51.92
Neutral
71.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBSW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.21, below the 50-day MA of 14.05, and above the 200-day MA of 11.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SBSW.
Sibanye Stillwater Risk Analysis
Sibanye Stillwater disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sibanye Stillwater reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sibanye Stillwater Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $52.76B | 16.43 | 35.18% | 2.82% | 26.43% | ― | |
75 Outperform | $43.35B | 10.92 | 50.82% | 1.51% | 49.62% | 195.39% | |
73 Outperform | $2.68B | 0.61 | 32.58% | 1.02% | 30.05% | 73.40% | |
73 Outperform | $10.86B | 5.53 | 32.51% | 0.87% | 29.08% | 72.12% | |
69 Neutral | $12.82B | 38.89 | 13.65% | 0.07% | 45.61% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
49 Neutral | $9.51B | -34.86 | -12.94% | ― | 6.27% | 93.14% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater
13.19
8.33
171.57%
DRD
Drdgold
30.75
14.46
88.77%
GFI
Gold Fields
47.39
24.14
103.85%
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
16.86
-0.62
-3.55%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
19.12
13.32
229.66%
AU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
104.47
63.10
152.54%
Sibanye Stillwater Corporate Events
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K with SEC on 2 April 2026
Apr 2, 2026
On 2 April 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as part of its ongoing disclosure obligations as a foreign private issuer. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, pr...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine Form 6-K with SEC on 31 March 2026
Mar 31, 2026
On 31 March 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a routine report of a foreign private issuer under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Market Release with U.S. SEC
Mar 27, 2026
On 27 March 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, formally submits a market release to U.S. regul...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine Form 6-K With SEC on 26 March 2026
Mar 26, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater on 26 March 2026 filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, primari...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Routine Form 6-K with U.S. SEC
Mar 20, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign private issuer. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter, primarily served as a procedural submission no...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K with SEC on March 19, 2026
Mar 19, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyte...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K, Signaling New Market Release
Mar 12, 2026
On 12 March 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, reaffirming its status as a foreign private issuer that reports annually on Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Officer Ch...
Sibanye Stillwater posts strong 2025 rebound with higher earnings and dividend
Feb 20, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater on 20 February 2026 reported its operating and financial results for the six months and year ended 31 December 2025, highlighting a 14% year-on-year increase in 2025 revenue to R129.7 billion (US$7.3 billion) and a 189% rise in ...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Furnishing Market Release
Feb 18, 2026
On 18 February 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer that submits annual reports on Form 20-F. The filing, signed by Chief Financial Of...
Sibanye-Stillwater Updates 2025 Mineral Resources and Reserves, Sharpening Focus on Core PGM Assets
Feb 17, 2026
Sibanye-Stillwater on 17 February 2026 reported its attributable Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves as at 31 December 2025, reflecting an updated picture of its underlying asset base. The annual life-of-mine planning process shows stable to gr...
Sibanye Stillwater Sets Out Future-Focused Metals Strategy in January 2026 Update
Jan 29, 2026
On 29 January 2026, Sibanye Stillwater released a strategy update presentation outlining its plan to position itself as a high-performing, future-focused metals business centred on performance excellence and the supply of metals critical to clean ...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K with SEC on 29 January 2026
Jan 29, 2026
In a filing dated 29 January 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited submitted a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its status as a foreign private issuer that reports under Form 20-F and operates from its South African h...
Sibanye Stillwater Files Form 6-K Report with SEC on 28 January 2026
Jan 28, 2026
On 28 January 2026, South African miner Sibanye Stillwater Limited, a foreign private issuer listed in the United States, filed a Form 6-K report with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, signed by Chief Financial Officer Charl Keyter. The...
Sibanye Stillwater Files January 2026 Form 6-K with SEC
Jan 20, 2026
On 19 January 2026, Sibanye Stillwater Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, confirming its ongoing status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F. The submission, signed by Chief Financial Office...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.