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Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW)
NYSE:SBSW
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Sibanye Stillwater
(NYSE:SBSW)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(5.20% Upside)
Positive Factors
Tax Credit
The impending S45X tax credit should alleviate some cost pressures at the US PGM operations.
Negative Factors
Earnings
Sibanye-Stillwater reported Q1/25 results with production and costs largely missing estimates, except for US PGMs.
Financial Performance
Sibanye-Stillwater reported adj. EBITDA of US$222M, lower than estimates due to higher costs and lower metal sales.
Operational Challenges
SA Gold operations were impacted by ore pass blockages at Kloof main shaft and pump station fire at Driefontein 5 shaft.
Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.92B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth6.27%
EPS Growth93.14%
CountryUS
Employees57,857
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength64
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.42
Shares Outstanding707,641,850
10 Day Avg. Volume8,002,887
30 Day Avg. Volume8,269,166
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda40.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.33Price Target Upside3.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
Sibanye Stillwater Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSibanye Stillwater (SBSW) is a leading global precious metals mining company, primarily engaged in the extraction and processing of gold and platinum group metals (PGMs). Headquartered in South Africa, the company operates several mining operations in the country and in the United States, focusing on sustainable and responsible mining practices. Its core products include gold, platinum, palladium, and rhodium, catering to various industrial applications and investment demands in the global market.
How the Company Makes MoneySibanye Stillwater generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mined precious metals, which are sold to various markets including jewelry, automotive, and industrial sectors. The company's key revenue streams include gold sales, PGM sales, and by-products from its mining operations. Additionally, Sibanye Stillwater has engaged in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its mining capabilities and expand its resource base. Factors such as fluctuating commodity prices, operational efficiency, and the successful execution of its growth strategies significantly contribute to its earnings. The company also benefits from investments in recycling operations, which provide additional revenue through the recovery of precious metals from waste materials.
Sibanye Stillwater Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with significant achievements in adjusted EBITDA growth and strategic transition, alongside challenges in safety, gold operations, and market conditions for lithium. The company's strategic positioning remains strong, but operational challenges and market uncertainties temper the optimism.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Group adjusted EBITDA increased by 120% compared to the same period in 2024, demonstrating strong operational performance and benefit from increasing basket prices.
Successful Strategic Transition
A well-planned transition process has been implemented with the appointment of Richard Stewart as CEO Designate, ensuring continuity and strategic alignment.
Positive PGM Market Position
Despite a 4% decline in production, the South African PGM operations remain within guidance, with a positive outlook due to improved PGM prices, which have increased by 23% since May.
Strong Sustainability and Renewable Energy Initiatives
The Castle wind farm has become operational, providing significant energy savings and reducing carbon footprint by 60,000 tonnes.
Negative Updates
Safety Concerns with Fatalities
The company reported three fatalities during the first half of 2025, emphasizing the need for continued focus on safety measures.
Challenges at Kloof Gold Operations
Kloof operations faced increased seismicity and infrastructure limitations, impacting production and resulting in a revised guidance for South African gold operations.
Keliber Lithium Project Impairment
Due to depressed lithium market conditions, the company announced an impairment of EUR 5.3 billion at Keliber, and is evaluating a responsible start-up.
No Interim Dividend Declared
Due to global economic uncertainty and commodity price volatility, the company decided not to declare an interim dividend, pending further review.
Company Guidance
In the H1 2025 results presentation, Sibanye-Stillwater highlighted several key metrics and strategic developments. The company reported a significant 120% increase in group adjusted EBITDA compared to the same period in 2024, reaching ZAR 10 billion even after stripping out 45X credits. The leverage ratio, measured by net debt to adjusted EBITDA, was 0.89x, well below 1x, indicating robust financial health. The total fair value of 45X credits is projected to increase to ZAR 12.6 billion by 2034, equating to 32% of the acquisition value of the Stillwater operations in Montana. Safety remains the top priority, with reported improvements in safety frequency rates, although three fatalities were noted during the period. The company also revised its full-year production and cost guidance for its South African gold operations due to operational challenges, particularly at the Kloof operations. As for strategic positioning, the company emphasized its diversification and exposure to strengthening markets like lithium and PGMs, while also mentioning the successful transition in leadership as Neal Froneman retires, passing the baton to Richard Stewart.Sibanye Stillwater Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Sibanye Stillwater's financial performance is challenged by declining revenue and profitability, as indicated by a volatile income statement and negative net profit margins. The balance sheet shows a solid equity base but increasing leverage, while cash flow analysis reveals potential liquidity issues due to negative free cash flow.Income Statement
Sibanye Stillwater's income statement reveals a volatile financial performance. The company experienced a decline in total revenue from 2020 to 2024, with significant swings in net income, moving from substantial profits to losses. The net profit margin has been negative over the last two years, indicating profitability challenges. Despite a high EBIT margin in earlier years, recent EBIT figures show weakening performance. Overall, the company's revenue growth and profitability are under pressure.42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Sibanye Stillwater reflects a strong equity position, with stockholders' equity maintaining a substantial proportion of total assets, indicating a solid equity ratio. However, the increase in total debt over the years has led to a higher debt-to-equity ratio, indicating growing leverage. The return on equity has been negatively impacted by recent losses, although it was strong in earlier years. Overall, the balance sheet presents a stable equity base but rising leverage.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows fluctuating free cash flow, with recent negative figures indicating challenges in generating excess cash. Operating cash flow has been positive, but the free cash flow to net income ratio has been adversely affected by net losses. The operating cash flow to net income ratio demonstrated better stability in earlier periods. The cash flow trajectory indicates potential liquidity constraints if negative trends persist.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 112.13B | 113.68B | 138.29B | 172.19B | 127.39B |
| Gross Profit | 6.30B | 12.78B | 34.83B | 60.17B | 42.26B |
| EBITDA | 164.00M | -27.52B | 37.13B | 57.61B | 45.42B |
| Net Income | -7.30B | -37.77B | 18.40B | 33.05B | 29.31B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 137.99B | 142.94B | 166.63B | 152.99B | 134.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.05B | 25.56B | 26.08B | 30.29B | 20.24B |
| Total Debt | 42.06B | 41.01B | 23.05B | 20.58B | 18.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 89.70B | 91.33B | 75.63B | 71.65B | 63.39B |
| Stockholders Equity | 43.98B | 48.73B | 91.00B | 81.34B | 70.72B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -11.28B | -15.32B | -356.00M | 19.52B | 17.53B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 10.29B | 7.09B | 15.54B | 32.26B | 27.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -24.34B | -22.04B | -17.37B | -14.57B | -9.94B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.56B | 12.98B | -3.50B | -8.34B | -2.24B |
Sibanye Stillwater Technical Analysis
Neutral
8.08
Price Trends
8.33
Negative
6.96
Positive
5.40
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.09
Positive
47.95
Neutral
73.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SBSW, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.25, below the 50-day MA of 8.33, and above the 200-day MA of 5.40, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SBSW.
Sibanye Stillwater Risk Analysis
Sibanye Stillwater disclosed 50 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Sibanye Stillwater reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Sibanye Stillwater Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $8.78B | 35.82 | 9.88% | ― | 68.88% | ― | |
79 Outperform | $30.51B | 16.33 | 35.09% | 1.63% | 49.62% | 195.39% | |
78 Outperform | $8.87B | 11.21 | 32.05% | 1.14% | 29.08% | 70.63% | |
73 Outperform | $29.28B | 24.91 | 19.42% | 2.79% | 26.43% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $5.98B | 57.00 | 4.67% | 0.28% | 36.30% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.27B | 6.37 | 0.76% | 2.91% | 3.10% | -36.03% | |
56 Neutral | $5.92B | ― | -8.31% | ― | 6.27% | 93.14% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater
8.08
4.57
130.20%
CDE
Coeur Mining
14.10
8.82
167.05%
GFI
Gold Fields
33.40
20.38
156.53%
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
14.01
5.30
60.85%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
8.85
3.42
62.98%
AU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
57.95
30.52
111.27%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.