Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
NYSE:FCX
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Freeport-McMoRan
(NYSE:FCX)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$70.00
▲(14.04% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
FCX scores well on financial resilience (very low leverage and solid cash generation) and strong technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The main drag is valuation (high P/E with a modest yield), while the earnings call and recent Grasberg-rights MOU add supportive medium-term upside but with execution and regulatory follow-through risks.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet strength
Extremely low trailing leverage and stronger equity provide lasting financial flexibility for a cyclical miner. This supports funding of large capex, dividends/buybacks and project optionality through downturns, reducing refinancing risk and enabling multi-year growth programs.
Negative Factors
Grasberg operational/timing uncertainty
The mudflow and phased restart create multi-year operational uncertainty at a district that supplies large, long-lived output. Delays or restrictions at PB1 blocks materially affect company volumes and capital plans, and regulatory/mitigation outcomes could change long-term production profiles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet strength
Extremely low trailing leverage and stronger equity provide lasting financial flexibility for a cyclical miner. This supports funding of large capex, dividends/buybacks and project optionality through downturns, reducing refinancing risk and enabling multi-year growth programs.
Read all positive factors
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$88.22B
Dividend Yield1.25%
Average Volume (3M)18.95M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.3
Beta (1Y)1.66
Revenue Growth2.83%
EPS Growth3.39%
CountryUS
Employees28,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding1,437,201,700
10 Day Avg. Volume18,352,614
30 Day Avg. Volume18,948,552
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.98
Price to Book (P/B)3.88
Price to Sales (P/S)2.85
P/FCF Ratio65.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$67.85Price Target Upside10.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)3.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$29.00B
Freeport-McMoRan Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals, as well as oil and gas. Its assets include the...
How the Company Makes Money
Freeport-McMoRan makes money primarily by producing and selling copper, along with by-product gold and molybdenum, from its mining operations. Revenue is generated when the company delivers these metals (or concentrates containing these metals) to...
Freeport-McMoRan Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFreeport-McMoRan Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 22, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized clear operational recovery momentum (notably progress toward Grasberg PB2/PB3 restart), strong market fundamentals with copper prices materially higher year-to-date (~30% above 2025 average), robust U.S. performance (production +5% and Q4 U.S. operating income 3.5x year-ago), and significant upside from the leach initiative and large reserve additions (including >17 billion pounds at El Abra). These positives are tempered by ongoing impacts from the Grasberg mudflow (~10% volume hit in 2025), execution risks (PB1C uncertainty, autonomous haul truck performance), regional cost pressures (South America unit costs ~$2.57/lb), and capex/project cost uncertainty for Baghdad expansion. On balance, highlights notably outweigh the lowlights given price strength, cash-flow leverage, reserve growth, and concrete restart progress, supporting a constructive near- to medium-term outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Results and EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was nearly $10 billion (similar to 2024). Modeled annual EBITDA for 2027-2028 ranges from ~$11 billion at $4/lb copper to >$19 billion at $6/lb copper, with operating cash flow ~$8 billion to >$14 billion across that price range.
Negative Updates
Grasberg Incident Impact and PB1 Uncertainty
September mudflow at PTFI reduced annual copper volumes by ~10% versus plan for 2025. While PB2/PB3 are on track for Q2 2026 startup, PB1S and PB1C are targeted for 2027 with PB1C restart subject to ongoing mitigation work and investigation recommendations — introducing multi-year operational uncertainty for that block.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Results and EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was nearly $10 billion (similar to 2024). Modeled annual EBITDA for 2027-2028 ranges from ~$11 billion at $4/lb copper to >$19 billion at $6/lb copper, with operating cash flow ~$8 billion to >$14 billion across that price range.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Freeport's 2026 guidance calls for a ~1 billion‑pound quarterly run rate, consolidated unit net cash costs of about $1.75/lb for 2026 (assumes $4,000/oz gold and $20/lb moly) with H1 above the annual average and H2 near $1.25/lb; the company includes 250–300M lbs of leach production in 2026 (it produced >200M in 2025, is targeting ~300M in 2026, ~400M in 2027 and 800M by 2030). Modeled 2027–28 results show EBITDA of roughly $11B at $4/lb copper to >$19B at $6/lb (operating cash flow ≈ $8B–$14B), with sensitivities of ≈ $400M EBITDA per $0.10/lb copper and ≈ $120M EBITDA per $100/oz gold. CapEx is forecast at $4.3–4.5B in 2026–27 (2025 capex $3.9B) with discretionary spend of ~$1.6–1.7B/yr and a $150M 2026 add for the Baghdad study; Grasberg’s phased restart targets PB2/PB3 in Q2 2026 to restore ~85% district production in H2 2026 (PB1S/PB1C targeted in 2027); reserves were increased by >17 billion lbs at El Abra, and market context: LME averaged $4.51/lb in 2025 (range $3.87–$5.68) and 2026 YTD prices are ~30% above the 2025 average.Freeport-McMoRan Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 25.74B | 25.45B | 22.71B | 23.33B | 22.36B |
| Gross Profit | 6.95B | 7.50B | 6.88B | 8.09B | 8.29B |
| EBITDA | 8.76B | 9.47B | 8.59B | 9.29B | 10.26B |
| Net Income | 2.20B | 1.88B | 1.84B | 3.46B | 4.30B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 58.17B | 54.85B | 52.51B | 51.09B | 48.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.05B | 3.92B | 5.97B | 8.15B | 8.07B |
| Total Debt | 11.50B | 9.74B | 10.20B | 10.95B | 9.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.40B | 26.07B | 25.20B | 26.22B | 25.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.90B | 17.58B | 16.69B | 15.55B | 13.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.12B | 2.35B | 455.00M | 1.67B | 5.60B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.61B | 7.16B | 5.28B | 5.14B | 7.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.47B | -5.03B | -4.96B | -3.25B | -1.78B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.88B | -3.28B | -2.65B | -1.81B | -1.52B |
Freeport-McMoRan Technical Analysis
Positive
61.38
Price Trends
61.23
Positive
54.67
Positive
48.53
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.74
Negative
55.69
Neutral
92.26
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 61.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.66, above the 50-day MA of 61.23, and above the 200-day MA of 48.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.74 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.26 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FCX.
Freeport-McMoRan Risk Analysis
Freeport-McMoRan disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Freeport-McMoRan reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Freeport-McMoRan Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $88.22B | 33.25 | 11.97% | 1.25% | 2.83% | 3.39% | |
72 Outperform | $124.07B | 15.59 | 21.72% | 0.95% | 26.25% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $158.97B | 13.01 | 16.59% | 4.60% | -0.44% | -4.20% | |
68 Neutral | $69.11B | 22.50 | 6.34% | 10.04% | -8.49% | -41.69% | |
65 Neutral | $39.09B | 11.03 | 5.87% | 1.03% | -4.51% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $145.66B | 27.74 | 42.25% | 2.07% | 12.70% | 25.51% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
61.38
31.43
104.92%
MT
ArcelorMittal
52.92
28.97
120.96%
NEM
Newmont Mining
114.05
69.77
157.54%
RIO
Rio Tinto
94.45
42.62
82.22%
SCCO
Southern Copper
177.83
103.37
138.82%
VALE
Vale SA
16.19
8.00
97.73%
Freeport-McMoRan Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Freeport-McMoRan Announces Director Robert Dudley’s Planned Exit
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan announced that board member Robert W. Dudley informed the Lead Independent Director and the Chairman that he will not stand for re-election at the company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. Dudley will...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Freeport-McMoRan Advances Grasberg Rights with Indonesian MOU
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan announced a Memorandum of Understanding with the Indonesian government to extend PT Freeport Indonesia’s life-of-resource operating rights in the Grasberg minerals district. The amended special mining b...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Freeport-McMoRan posts Q4 2025 results, plans Grasberg restart
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 22, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income attributable to common stock of $406 million, or $0.28 per share, and adjusted net income of $688 million, or $0.47 per share, reflecting after-tax charges tied mainly t...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.