tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
NYSE:FCX
Advertisement

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
5,447 Followers

Top Page

FCX

Freeport-McMoRan

(NYSE:FCX)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$51.00
▲(13.61%Upside)
Freeport-McMoRan benefits from strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, particularly regarding operational efficiency and strategic initiatives. However, technical indicators suggest a neutral to slightly bullish market position, and valuation metrics point to potential overvaluation concerns. Overall, the company is well-positioned for growth, but faces challenges in maintaining revenue stability and addressing tariff impacts.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Freeport-McMoRan reported Q2 EBITDA that surpassed both BofAe and consensus forecasts due to higher volume/pricing and lower costs.
Market Position
Freeport-McMoRan is expected to benefit from Section 232, and analysts predict its stock to outperform peers due to its significant US operations.
Operations
The new Indonesian smelter started up as planned, with ramp-up progressing well towards year-end 2025.
Negative Factors
Costs
Freeport-McMoRan expects a 5% increase in the cost of goods in the US due to supplier pass-through of tariffs.
Market Dynamics
Copper markets face challenges with distorted prices due to US stockpiling ahead of Section 232, leading to anticipated post-Section 232 weakness.
Sales Guidance
Freeport-McMoRan reduced its 2025 sales guidance for copper, gold, and molybdenum from prior forecasts.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Freeport-McMoRan Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFreeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals, as well as oil and gas. Its assets include the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Tyrone and Chino in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado, North America, as well as Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. The company also operates a portfolio of oil and gas properties primarily located in offshore California and the Gulf of Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 135 wells. The company was formerly known as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and changed its name to Freeport-McMoRan Inc. in July 2014. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
How the Company Makes MoneyFreeport-McMoRan generates revenue primarily through the extraction, processing, and sale of copper, gold, and molybdenum. The company’s revenue model is heavily reliant on the global demand and pricing of these commodities, which are influenced by market conditions, economic cycles, and geopolitical factors. FCX sells its products to a diverse range of customers, including industrial manufacturers, smelters, and commodity traders. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of copper concentrate and cathodes, gold, and molybdenum. Additionally, FCX has significant joint ventures and partnerships, such as its collaboration with the Indonesian government in the Grasberg mine, which contribute to its earnings by providing operational synergies and access to vast mineral reserves. The company's financial performance is also impacted by its ability to efficiently manage production costs, optimize its mining operations, and invest in technological advancements to enhance productivity.

Freeport-McMoRan Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Chart InsightsFreeport-McMoRan's copper revenue shows a steady upward trend, reflecting strong demand and strategic pricing in the US market, bolstered by a 13% premium over LME prices. Gold revenue is volatile but poised for significant growth, with sales expected to quadruple. The earnings call highlights a positive outlook with increased production and reduced costs, despite challenges like export permit issues in Indonesia and tariff impacts. The company's focus on operational excellence and strategic projects, such as leach innovations, positions it well for future growth and shareholder returns.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Freeport-McMoRan Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.99%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 16, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance with significant achievements such as the Indonesian smelter start-up and progress in the leach initiative. However, revisions in gold production forecasts and challenges related to tariffs and Indonesian operations presented notable concerns.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Generated quarterly EBITDA of $3.2 billion and operating cash flows of $2.2 billion, driven by strong copper and gold sales and improved production costs.
Indonesian Smelter Start-Up
Started up the new copper smelter in Indonesia a month ahead of schedule, progressing towards design capacity by the end of the year.
Leach Initiative Progress
Field trial at Morenci mine with an internally developed leach additive showing promising results, with potential to produce 800 million pounds per annum.
U.S. Copper Premium Increase
U.S. copper premium tripled from second quarter levels, providing additional margins and cash flows.
Continued Commitment to Shareholder Returns
Purchased 1.5 million shares in Q2, totaling 2.9 million shares in the first half of the year, maintaining a target of 50% of excess cash flow for shareholder returns.
Negative Updates
Gold Production Revision
Revised near-term outlook for gold production, approximately 15% reduction in expected 2025 gold production due to adjustments in the Grasberg Block Cave model.
Indonesia Export and Timing Challenges
Potential timing mismatches between production and sales with the transition to a fully integrated producer in Indonesia.
Tariff Impact on Costs
Potential 5% increase in costs due to tariffs, with ongoing monitoring and adjustments in supply chains needed.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Freeport-McMoRan reported significant financial achievements, including a net unit cash production cost of $1.13 per pound, which was an improvement from prior guidance. The company realized an average copper price of over $4.50 per pound, exceeding the international benchmark by $0.20, contributing to quarterly EBITDA of $3.2 billion and operating cash flows of $2.2 billion. Freeport's copper sales in the second half are expected to rise by nearly 10% compared to the first half, and gold sales are projected to remain stable. The startup of their Indonesian smelter was a major milestone, anticipated to reach design capacity by year-end. The U.S. copper premium, which recently tripled, is enhancing margins and cash flows, with Freeport's U.S. copper sales currently enjoying a substantial premium over international benchmarks. Looking ahead, the company expects continued volume growth and lower costs to drive expanded margins and cash flows into 2026 and 2027.

Freeport-McMoRan Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Freeport-McMoRan's financial statements demonstrate strong profitability, low leverage, and robust cash flow generation. Key highlights include a significant net profit margin of 46.61%, a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02, and a substantial free cash flow growth rate of 75.29%. These factors indicate financial resilience and operational efficiency, though the volatility in revenue growth remains a concern.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Freeport-McMoRan's income statement shows strong profitability with a healthy gross profit margin of 27.97% and a robust net profit margin of 46.61% for the TTM period. The company demonstrates solid EBIT and EBITDA margins of 55.29% and 76.61% respectively, indicating efficient operations. However, revenue growth has been volatile, with recent TTM revenue slightly lower than the previous annual figures, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining consistent top-line growth.
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
The balance sheet reveals a strong equity position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. The return on equity is impressive at 32.03%, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. Additionally, the equity ratio stands at 32.24%, showcasing a balanced capital structure with a substantial equity base. Overall, the balance sheet exhibits financial stability and resilience.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
Cash flow analysis shows a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.13, indicating robust cash generation relative to profits. The free cash flow growth rate is significant at 75.29% for the TTM period, reflecting improved cash efficiency. Furthermore, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.71 highlights strong cash conversion from earnings. These metrics underscore the company's ability to generate cash and invest in growth opportunities.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.45B22.86B22.78B22.84B14.20B
Gross Profit7.66B7.16B7.69B8.81B2.54B
EBITDA9.47B8.59B9.29B10.26B3.92B
Net Income1.89B1.84B3.47B4.31B853.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets54.85B52.51B51.09B48.02B42.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.92B4.76B8.15B8.07B3.66B
Total Debt9.74B9.85B10.62B9.45B9.71B
Total Liabilities26.07B25.20B26.22B25.00B23.48B
Stockholders Equity17.58B16.69B15.55B13.98B10.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow2.35B455.00M1.67B5.60B1.06B
Operating Cash Flow7.16B5.28B5.14B7.71B3.02B
Investing Cash Flow-5.03B-4.96B-3.44B-1.96B-1.26B
Financing Cash Flow-3.28B-2.65B-1.62B-1.34B-128.00M

Freeport-McMoRan Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price44.89
Price Trends
50DMA
42.11
Positive
100DMA
39.27
Positive
200DMA
40.33
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.80
Positive
RSI
55.09
Neutral
STOCH
50.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.00, above the 50-day MA of 42.11, and above the 200-day MA of 40.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FCX.

Freeport-McMoRan Risk Analysis

Freeport-McMoRan disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Freeport-McMoRan reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Freeport-McMoRan Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$68.46B13.7920.26%1.52%39.02%
78
Outperform
$64.03B33.6610.74%1.33%5.98%
76
Outperform
$108.59B8.9621.04%6.36%-0.28%15.20%
70
Neutral
$43.70B7.6515.98%8.31%-9.59%-25.35%
69
Neutral
$79.99B22.2141.93%2.71%23.23%53.35%
69
Neutral
$27.87B20.472.60%1.44%-8.56%68.36%
63
Neutral
$10.49B10.771.52%2.68%2.24%-33.79%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
44.89
1.15
2.63%
MT
ArcelorMittal
33.65
11.41
51.30%
NEM
Newmont Mining
65.75
19.47
42.07%
RIO
Rio Tinto
63.10
2.41
3.97%
SCCO
Southern Copper
98.19
-0.79
-0.80%
VALE
Vale SA
10.00
-0.09
-0.89%

Freeport-McMoRan Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Freeport-McMoRan Reports Strong Q2 2025 Financial Results
Positive
Jul 23, 2025

In the second quarter of 2025, Freeport-McMoRan reported strong financial performance with net income attributable to common stock totaling $772 million. The company exceeded its sales guidance for copper and gold, benefiting from favorable pricing. Significant milestones included the startup of a new copper smelter in Indonesia and advancements in copper leaching initiatives. Freeport-McMoRan maintained a strong financial position with operating cash flows of $2.2 billion and capital expenditures of $1.3 billion, reinforcing its commitment to growth and efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (FCX) stock is a Hold with a $58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freeport-McMoRan stock, see the FCX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Freeport-McMoRan Approves 2025 Stock Incentive Plan
Neutral
Jun 12, 2025

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. held on June 11, 2025, stockholders approved the 2025 Stock Incentive Plan, which replaces the 2016 Plan and authorizes the issuance of up to 43,820,000 shares of common stock. The meeting also saw the election of twelve directors, approval of executive compensation, and ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025. The Plan’s approval is expected to impact the company’s operations by providing a new framework for stock-based compensation, potentially influencing employee incentives and aligning interests with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (FCX) stock is a Hold with a $58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freeport-McMoRan stock, see the FCX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2025