Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. (FCX)
NYSE:FCX
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Freeport-McMoRan
(NYSE:FCX)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$63.00
▼(-10.27% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/21/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (profitability and cash generation with manageable leverage), partially offset by weak technical momentum (below key moving averages, negative MACD). Valuation is somewhat demanding (higher P/E with a low yield), while the latest earnings call supports the long-term outlook but flags meaningful near-term operational and cost headwinds at Grasberg.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent multi‑billion free cash flow provides durable funding for high‑return capex, discretionary projects, debt stability and shareholder returns. This cash generation cushions commodity volatility and funds growth options like leach scaling without forcing dilutive financing.
Negative Factors
Grasberg material‑handling bottlenecks
Persistent wet draw‑point issues constrain throughput and complicate underground block‑cave operations, creating a structural production and logistics choke point. Remediation timelines to mid‑2027 mean prolonged volume and cost pressure while engineering fixes and vendor execution remain material execution risks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent multi‑billion free cash flow provides durable funding for high‑return capex, discretionary projects, debt stability and shareholder returns. This cash generation cushions commodity volatility and funds growth options like leach scaling without forcing dilutive financing.
Read all positive factors
Freeport-McMoRan Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFreeport-McMoRan (FCX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$87.50B
Dividend Yield1.25%
Average Volume (3M)15.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.1
Beta (1Y)1.74
Revenue Growth5.35%
EPS Growth55.07%
CountryUS
Employees28,500
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.88
Shares Outstanding1,437,559,800
10 Day Avg. Volume14,962,227
30 Day Avg. Volume15,699,625
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.98
Price to Book (P/B)3.88
Price to Sales (P/S)2.85
P/FCF Ratio65.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.00
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.62Price Target Upside2.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)2.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$28.12B
Freeport-McMoRan Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals, as well as oil and gas. Its assets include the...
How the Company Makes Money
Freeport-McMoRan makes money primarily by producing and selling copper, along with by-product gold and molybdenum, from its mining operations. Revenue is generated when the company delivers these metals (or concentrates containing these metals) to...
Freeport-McMoRan Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of material near-term operational challenges at Grasberg and industry-wide input-cost pressures, but emphasized strong portfolio diversity, significant growth options (notably leach scaling, El Abra and Bagdad), a solid balance sheet, an insurance recovery, and meaningful recent operating gains in the U.S. Management characterized Grasberg issues as timing and engineering challenges (not resource loss), with concrete mitigation plans and only modest incremental capex. Given the magnitude of long-term value drivers and current financial strength versus the primarily timing-related setbacks, the tone is constructive with manageable near-term headwinds.Positive Updates
Year-over-Year Financial and Operational Improvement
Sales of copper and gold, and unit costs, were better than forecast; revenues, EBITDA and operating cash flow grew compared with Q1 2025 despite reduced Indonesia capacity.
Negative Updates
Grasberg Material-Handling Bottlenecks and Ramp-Down
Wet draw points in PB2/3 increased from 30% (Sept 2025) to 45% currently — a 50% relative increase — reducing blending capability and causing material-handling bottlenecks downstream of the extraction level; majority of bottlenecks expected to be addressed by mid-2027.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Year-over-Year Financial and Operational Improvement
Sales of copper and gold, and unit costs, were better than forecast; revenues, EBITDA and operating cash flow grew compared with Q1 2025 despite reduced Indonesia capacity.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Freeport’s guidance updated for 2026 reflects softer near‑term output at Grasberg and higher input costs but strong long‑term cash‑flow leverage to copper: copper has averaged >$5.80/lb YTD (peaked >$6), modeled 2027–28 EBITDA of ~$14B at $5/lb to ~$21B at $7/lb (operating cash flow ~$10B–$16B) with each $0.10/lb ≈ $400M EBITDA and each $100/oz gold ≈ $110M (gold assumed $4,500/oz, moly $25/lb). Grasberg PB2/3 is now forecast at ~60,000 tpd in H2‑2026 (vs prior 100,000 tpd) ramping toward ~90,000 tpd by mid‑2027; of 635 active draw points wet points rose from 30% (Sep‑2025) to 45% and 10 of 23 panels now fail the 1:1 dry:wet blend, driving a timing‑only 5‑year production revision of ~–9% copper and –7% gold (largest in 2026–27). Unit costs are now expected to average $1.95/lb in 2026 (prior $1.75), a March diesel spike equates to ≈$500M annualized cost, idle‑cost exclusions rose to $1.3B (from $900M), incremental chute mods add ~$60–70M, and company capex is ~$4.3B in 2026 and ~$4.5B in 2027 with $1.6–1.7B discretionary (≈50% Kucing Liar/LNG); management also expects to collect a $700M insurance recovery in Q2, scale leach to 300–400M lb/year in 2026–27 with a path to 800M lb/year by 2030, pursue ~60% U.S. production growth over several years, and returned ~$300M to shareholders in Q1 (1.7M shares repurchased).Freeport-McMoRan Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 26.42B | 25.74B | 25.45B | 22.71B | 23.33B | 22.36B |
| Gross Profit | 7.34B | 6.95B | 7.50B | 6.88B | 8.09B | 8.29B |
| EBITDA | 9.59B | 8.76B | 9.47B | 8.59B | 9.29B | 10.26B |
| Net Income | 2.73B | 2.20B | 1.88B | 1.84B | 3.46B | 4.30B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 58.84B | 58.17B | 54.85B | 52.51B | 51.09B | 48.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.02B | 4.05B | 3.92B | 5.97B | 8.15B | 8.07B |
| Total Debt | 10.40B | 11.50B | 9.74B | 10.20B | 10.95B | 9.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.33B | 27.40B | 26.07B | 25.20B | 26.22B | 25.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.50B | 18.90B | 17.58B | 16.69B | 15.55B | 13.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.25B | 1.12B | 2.35B | 455.00M | 1.67B | 5.60B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.05B | 5.61B | 7.16B | 5.28B | 5.14B | 7.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.28B | -4.47B | -5.03B | -4.96B | -3.25B | -1.78B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.56B | -1.88B | -3.28B | -2.65B | -1.81B | -1.52B |
Freeport-McMoRan Technical Analysis
Positive
70.21
Price Trends
61.14
Positive
61.01
Positive
51.84
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
50.60
Neutral
22.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.83, above the 50-day MA of 61.14, and above the 200-day MA of 51.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FCX.
Freeport-McMoRan Risk Analysis
Freeport-McMoRan disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Freeport-McMoRan reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Freeport-McMoRan Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $114.64B | 9.00 | 25.22% | 0.95% | 25.14% | 73.19% | |
74 Outperform | $145.25B | 22.35 | 45.96% | 2.07% | 21.70% | 36.79% | |
69 Neutral | $175.47B | 6.00 | 16.59% | 4.60% | 7.59% | -13.66% | |
66 Neutral | $68.12B | 8.97 | 7.68% | 10.04% | 4.64% | -51.66% | |
64 Neutral | $87.50B | 24.09 | 14.52% | 1.25% | 5.35% | 55.07% | |
63 Neutral | $46.47B | 17.20 | 5.35% | 1.03% | -1.31% | 149.74% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
62.31
25.04
67.20%
MT
ArcelorMittal
64.11
34.44
116.10%
NEM
Newmont Mining
108.33
56.36
108.43%
RIO
Rio Tinto
104.76
46.69
80.41%
SCCO
Southern Copper
179.12
94.11
110.71%
VALE
Vale SA
16.47
7.59
85.41%
Freeport-McMoRan Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Freeport-McMoRan Secures New $3 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan and its Indonesian subsidiary PT Freeport Indonesia entered into a new five-year, $3.0 billion senior unsecured revolving credit facility with a syndicate of banks led by JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, replac...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Freeport-McMoRan Posts Strong First-Quarter 2026 Results
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan reported strong first-quarter 2026 results, with net income attributable to common stock of $881 million, or $0.61 per share, and adjusted net income of $830 million, or $0.57, as revenues, operating income and ...
Executive/Board Changes
Freeport-McMoRan Announces Director Robert Dudley’s Planned Exit
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan announced that board member Robert W. Dudley informed the Lead Independent Director and the Chairman that he will not stand for re-election at the company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. Dudley will...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Freeport-McMoRan Advances Grasberg Rights with Indonesian MOU
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan announced a Memorandum of Understanding with the Indonesian government to extend PT Freeport Indonesia’s life-of-resource operating rights in the Grasberg minerals district. The amended special mining b...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.