Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) AI Stock Analysis

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Freeport-McMoRan

(NYSE:FCX)

Select Model

Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:67Neutral

Price Target:

$46.00

▲(15.55% Upside)

Freeport-McMoRan's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including strategic initiatives and innovation. However, the high valuation and mixed technical indicators temper the outlook. The company's ability to manage costs and leverage strategic positioning in the copper industry supports a moderately positive view.

Positive Factors

Indonesian Smelter Start-up

The early start of the Indonesian smelter enhances production capacity and margin potential, supporting long-term growth and operational efficiency.

Strong Financial Performance

Robust cash generation and profitability indicate effective cost management and operational strength, ensuring financial stability and growth potential.

Innovation and Cost Reduction

Innovative technologies and cost reduction efforts enhance competitive advantage, improving production efficiency and long-term profitability.

Negative Factors

Grasberg Gold Production Revision

The reduction in gold production impacts revenue streams and could affect profitability, though it is a timing issue with no long-term impact.

Cost Pressures from Tariffs

Increased costs from tariffs could pressure margins and reduce competitiveness, impacting financial performance if not mitigated effectively.

Operational Challenges

Operational disruptions from maintenance can hinder production efficiency and affect short-term output, potentially delaying revenue realization.

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$57.16B

Dividend Yield1.51%

Average Volume (3M)18.73M

Price to Earnings (P/E)28.0

Beta (1Y)1.58

Revenue Growth2.83%

EPS Growth3.39%

CountryUS

Employees28,500

SectorBasic Materials

Sector Strength58

IndustryCopper

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.50

Shares Outstanding1,435,930,700

10 Day Avg. Volume15,253,709

30 Day Avg. Volume18,727,690

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio14.72

Price to Book (P/B)3.13

Price to Sales (P/S)2.19

P/FCF Ratio23.40

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.28

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.81

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.84

Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.73

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$47.56

Price Target Upside19.47% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering17

EPS Forecast (FY)1.48

Revenue Forecast (FY)$25.13B

Freeport-McMoRan Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFreeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) is a leading international mining company primarily engaged in the exploration, mining, and production of copper, gold, and molybdenum. The company operates large-scale, long-lived, geographically diverse assets with significant reserves, including the Grasberg mining complex in Indonesia and mines in the Americas. FCX is strategically positioned in the mining sector, focusing on the extraction and processing of metals essential for infrastructure development and various industrial applications.

How the Company Makes MoneyFreeport-McMoRan generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper, gold, and molybdenum. The company’s key revenue streams include the production and sale of copper concentrate and cathode, gold bullion, and molybdenum products. Copper sales account for the largest portion of its revenue, driven by demand from construction, electrical, and manufacturing industries. Additionally, gold sales contribute significantly, especially during periods of high gold prices. The company also benefits from cost management strategies and operational efficiencies to enhance profitability. Partnerships with local governments and stakeholders in regions where it operates, such as Indonesia and the Americas, provide strategic advantages and support FCX's long-term growth. Market conditions, including commodity prices and global demand, greatly influence its earnings.

Freeport-McMoRan Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.

Chart InsightsFreeport-McMoRan's copper revenue shows a steady upward trend, reflecting strong demand and strategic pricing in the US market, bolstered by a 13% premium over LME prices. Gold revenue is volatile but poised for significant growth, with sales expected to quadruple. The earnings call highlights a positive outlook with increased production and reduced costs, despite challenges like export permit issues in Indonesia and tariff impacts. The company's focus on operational excellence and strategic projects, such as leach innovations, positions it well for future growth and shareholder returns.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Freeport-McMoRan Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 23, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Jan 28, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance with significant achievements in operational milestones, especially the start-up of the Indonesian smelter and cost reduction initiatives. However, some challenges remain with gold production timing and cost pressures from tariffs. Despite these issues, Freeport's strategic positioning and innovation efforts create a positive outlook.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Financial Performance

Freeport reported strong margins and cash flows, with a quarterly EBITDA of $3.2 billion and operating cash flows of $2.2 billion. Copper sales in the second half are expected to be nearly 10% higher than the first half.

Indonesian Smelter Start-up

The start-up of the new copper smelter in Indonesia was a major milestone, commencing a month ahead of schedule, with first cathode production expected by the end of the month.

U.S. Copper Premium

The U.S. copper sales premium tripled from second quarter levels, implying a significant financial benefit. This premium adds additional margins and cash flows.

Innovation and Cost Reduction

Progress in leach additive technology at the U.S. Morenci mine shows promising lab results, aiming to produce 800 million pounds per annum. Efforts to reduce costs in the U.S. are ongoing, targeting $2.50 per pound range by 2027.

Strategic Positioning

Freeport is well-positioned with significant copper resources, with operations in the U.S., Indonesia, and South America. The company is advancing several expansion projects and exploring innovative leach processes.

Negative Updates

Grasberg Gold Production Revision

Grasberg's gold production for 2025 is expected to be down approximately 15% due to updated ore grade models, though this is a timing issue and does not impact long-term production plans.

Cost Pressures from Tariffs

Potential 5% impact on costs due to tariffs on imported materials, although Freeport is actively working to manage and mitigate these pressures.

Operational Challenges

Major maintenance projects at the Grasberg site impacted mill rates, though completion is expected to improve future operating rates.

Company Guidance

During Freeport-McMoRan's second quarter conference call for fiscal year 2025, the company provided detailed guidance on its operational and financial expectations. The firm reported strong margins and cash flows, with copper and gold sales exceeding expectations, and a significant reduction in net unit cash production costs to $1.13 per pound. The average realized copper price was over $4.50 per pound, contributing to a quarterly EBITDA of $3.2 billion and operating cash flows of $2.2 billion. Looking ahead, Freeport expects a 10% increase in copper sales in the second half of the year compared to the first half. The recent start-up of its Indonesian smelter is anticipated to enhance margins further, and the company is advancing its innovative leach program with a targeted production increase of 800 million pounds per annum. Freeport also highlighted the impact of a recent U.S. tariff on copper imports, which has significantly increased domestic copper price premiums, potentially providing substantial financial benefits. Additionally, the company remains focused on reducing costs and expanding production capabilities in the U.S., while continuing to distribute 50% of excess cash flows to shareholders.

Freeport-McMoRan Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Freeport-McMoRan demonstrates strong financial health with robust profitability and a solid balance sheet. Despite a recent revenue decline, the company's high margins and effective debt management mitigate some risks. Cash flow generation is solid, although historical volatility should be monitored.

Income Statement

Positive

Freeport-McMoRan's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a significant decline in revenue growth rate, which is concerning. However, the company maintains strong profitability metrics with a high net profit margin and EBIT margin, suggesting efficient operations. The historical data shows fluctuating revenue growth but consistent profitability, which indicates resilience in challenging market conditions.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM period, indicating prudent financial management and reduced leverage risk. The return on equity is impressive, reflecting effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability and low risk.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals positive trends, with a notable increase in free cash flow growth in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating good cash generation relative to earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong, suggesting efficient cash management. However, historical fluctuations in free cash flow growth highlight potential volatility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	25.99B	25.45B	22.71B	23.33B	22.36B	13.87B
Gross Profit	7.43B	7.50B	6.88B	8.09B	8.29B	2.41B
EBITDA	9.46B	9.47B	8.59B	9.29B	10.26B	3.92B
Net Income	2.07B	1.88B	1.84B	3.46B	4.30B	596.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	56.83B	54.85B	52.51B	51.09B	48.02B	42.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.55B	3.92B	4.76B	8.15B	8.07B	3.66B
Total Debt	9.30B	9.74B	9.85B	10.95B	9.77B	9.94B
Total Liabilities	26.43B	26.07B	25.20B	26.22B	25.00B	23.48B
Stockholders Equity	18.68B	17.58B	16.69B	15.55B	13.98B	10.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.06B	2.35B	455.00M	1.67B	5.60B	1.06B
Operating Cash Flow	6.35B	7.16B	5.28B	5.14B	7.71B	3.02B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.67B	-5.03B	-4.96B	-3.44B	-1.96B	-1.26B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.24B	-3.28B	-2.65B	-1.62B	-1.34B	-128.00M

Freeport-McMoRan Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price39.81

Price Trends

50DMA

41.99

Negative

100DMA

42.48

Negative

200DMA

39.88

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.47

Positive

RSI

44.56

Neutral

STOCH

17.65

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.15, below the 50-day MA of 41.99, and below the 200-day MA of 39.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.65 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FCX.

Freeport-McMoRan Risk Analysis

Freeport-McMoRan disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Freeport-McMoRan reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Freeport-McMoRan Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NEM	81 Outperform	$91.00B	12.96	22.84%	1.12%	26.25%	―
RIO	80 Outperform	$117.19B	10.91	18.18%	5.37%	-0.44%	-4.20%
SCCO	78 Outperform	$110.95B	29.13	39.45%	2.23%	12.70%	25.51%
VALE	77 Outperform	$51.86B	9.59	13.65%	6.60%	-8.49%	-41.69%
MT	70 Outperform	$30.80B	11.38	4.72%	1.24%	-4.51%	―
FCX	67 Neutral	$57.16B	27.99	11.33%	1.51%	2.83%	3.39%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FCX

Freeport-McMoRan

39.81

-4.41

-9.97%

ArcelorMittal

39.16

13.97

55.46%

NEM

Newmont Mining

83.39

41.89

100.94%

RIO

Rio Tinto

69.33

10.34

17.53%

SCCO

Southern Copper

136.61

37.01

37.16%

VALE

Vale SA

12.15

2.65

27.89%

Freeport-McMoRan Corporate Events

Freeport-McMoRan Reports Q3 2025 Earnings Amid Challenges

Oct 24, 2025

Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. is a leading international mining company primarily engaged in the production of copper, gold, and molybdenum, with significant operations in the United States, South America, and Indonesia. The company is known for its large-scale mining operations and substantial reserves.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Freeport-McMoRan Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Neutral

Oct 23, 2025

Freeport-McMoRan reported its third-quarter and nine-month 2025 financial results, highlighting a net income of $674 million for the third quarter despite the impact of a mud rush incident in Indonesia in September 2025, which temporarily suspended operations. The company maintained a strong financial position with consolidated production and sales figures slightly below guidance but achieved better-than-expected unit net cash costs. Freeport-McMoRan’s long-term outlook remains favorable, with ongoing investments in major mining projects and downstream processing facilities, although the incident has underscored the importance of safety in their operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (FCX) stock is a Buy with a $47.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freeport-McMoRan stock, see the FCX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy

Freeport-McMoRan Grasberg Mine Incident Investigation Update

Negative

Oct 6, 2025

On October 5, 2025, Freeport-McMoRan announced that the five team members missing after the September 8 mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia were found deceased. The company extended condolences to the families and is committed to investigating the incident to prevent future occurrences. Mining operations in the Grasberg district have been suspended since the incident, and an investigation involving external experts is underway, expected to conclude by year-end 2025. Freeport-McMoRan is working with Indonesian authorities to review the incident and future operating plans, with no updates yet on the potential production impacts previously assessed.

The most recent analyst rating on (FCX) stock is a Buy with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freeport-McMoRan stock, see the FCX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Freeport-McMoRan Updates on Grasberg Mine Incident

Negative

Sep 25, 2025

On September 24, 2025, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. provided an update on the PT Freeport Indonesia operations following a mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine on September 8, 2025. The incident resulted in two fatalities, with five team members still missing. Mining operations have been suspended, and an investigation is underway to determine the cause. The incident has significantly impacted production forecasts, with a phased restart expected to commence in 2026, potentially deferring significant production until 2027. The company is assessing damage and plans to seek insurance recovery for losses.

The most recent analyst rating on (FCX) stock is a Hold with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freeport-McMoRan stock, see the FCX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy

Freeport-McMoRan Updates on Grasberg Mud Flow Incident

Negative

Sep 12, 2025

On September 11, 2025, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. provided an update on the ongoing rescue operations at PT Freeport Indonesia’s Grasberg Block Cave following a mud flow incident on September 8. Efforts are underway to locate seven missing team members, with mining operations temporarily suspended. The company is working with Indonesian authorities to review the incident and assess its impact on future production plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (FCX) stock is a Buy with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freeport-McMoRan stock, see the FCX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy

Freeport-McMoRan Releases PT Freeport Indonesia Report

Neutral

Sep 9, 2025

On September 9, 2025, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. released a report on the operations of PT Freeport Indonesia. The report provides insights into the company’s operational activities, which are crucial for stakeholders to understand the company’s performance and strategic positioning in the mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (FCX) stock is a Buy with a $48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freeport-McMoRan stock, see the FCX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2025