Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $58.80B
• Dividend Yield: 1.47%
• Average Volume (3M): 10.87M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.55
• Revenue Growth: 2.84%
• EPS Growth: 6.35%
• Country: US
• Employees: 28,500
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 1,436,200,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 11,521,288
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,866,732
• PEG Ratio: -0.87
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.52
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 32.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.57
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.99
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.53
• 1Y Price Target: $45.64
• Price Target Upside: 11.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $47.00 ▲(14.80%Upside)

Freeport-McMoRan's overall stock score is driven by strong technical analysis and positive earnings call insights. While financial performance is solid, high valuation and cash flow challenges slightly temper the score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Freeport reported a 1Q EBITDA beat as copper sales volumes, realized prices and unit costs all beat what the company had guided to.

Free Cash Flow

Freeport is heading into a period of rising free cash flow due to higher volumes, lower unit costs, and higher price realizations, in part due to COMEX copper price premiums.

Share Repurchases

Freeport repurchased shares for the first time since 3Q'24 by repurchasing 2.3m shares for $80m, indicating potential for further share repurchases.

Negative Factors

Cost Pressures

Management noted that its US costs could increase by as much as 5% due to tariffs on imported items.

Demand Risk

There is a risk of an air pocket in demand if US buyers who have been accumulating inventory temporarily step out of the market.

Geopolitical and Trade Issues

Ongoing issues in Indonesia, rising capex, and geopolitical issues/trade wars are all likely factors for the decoupling between FCX and the copper price.

Freeport-McMoRan Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. engages in the mining of mineral properties in North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily explores for copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals, as well as oil and gas. Its assets include the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia; Morenci, Bagdad, Safford, Sierrita, and Miami in Arizona; Tyrone and Chino in New Mexico; and Henderson and Climax in Colorado, North America, as well as Cerro Verde in Peru and El Abra in Chile. The company also operates a portfolio of oil and gas properties primarily located in offshore California and the Gulf of Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it operated approximately 135 wells. The company was formerly known as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and changed its name to Freeport-McMoRan Inc. in July 2014. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

How the Company Makes Money

Freeport-McMoRan generates revenue primarily through the extraction, processing, and sale of copper, gold, and molybdenum. The company’s revenue model is heavily reliant on the global demand and pricing of these commodities, which are influenced by market conditions, economic cycles, and geopolitical factors. FCX sells its products to a diverse range of customers, including industrial manufacturers, smelters, and commodity traders. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of copper concentrate and cathodes, gold, and molybdenum. Additionally, FCX has significant joint ventures and partnerships, such as its collaboration with the Indonesian government in the Grasberg mine, which contribute to its earnings by providing operational synergies and access to vast mineral reserves. The company's financial performance is also impacted by its ability to efficiently manage production costs, optimize its mining operations, and invest in technological advancements to enhance productivity.

Freeport-McMoRan Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Freeport-McMoRan displays a solid financial position with robust profitability and operational efficiency. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, but there is potential risk from reduced free cash flow due to high capital expenditures.

Income Statement

Freeport-McMoRan displayed robust financial health in the TTM period, with a Gross Profit Margin of 28.82% and a Net Profit Margin of 7.11%. The revenue showed a slight decline from the previous year, with a revenue growth rate of -2.32%. Despite this, the EBIT and EBITDA margins remain strong at 26.27% and 35.93%, respectively, indicating good operational efficiency and profitability.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid equity base, with an Equity Ratio of 31.57%. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio stands at 0.53, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on Equity is 9.99%, reflecting a reasonable return for shareholders. Overall, the balance sheet remains stable, though there is room for improvement in asset utilization and debt management.

Cash Flow

Free Cash Flow has decreased by 32.16% year-over-year, highlighting challenges in cash generation. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong at 3.58, but the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is lower at 0.90, suggesting that capital expenditures are impacting cash flow. The company needs to manage its capital expenditures more effectively to improve free cash flow.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
24.86B	25.45B	22.86B	22.78B	22.84B	14.20B
	Gross Profit
7.17B	7.66B	7.16B	7.69B	8.81B	2.54B
	EBIT
6.53B	6.86B	6.22B	7.04B	8.37B	2.44B
	EBITDA
8.94B	9.47B	8.59B	9.29B	10.26B	3.92B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.77B	1.89B	1.84B	3.47B	4.31B	853.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
4.84B	3.92B	4.76B	8.15B	8.07B	3.66B
	Total Assets
56.02B	54.85B	52.51B	51.09B	48.02B	42.14B
	Total Debt
9.40B	9.74B	9.85B	10.62B	9.45B	9.71B
	Net Debt
4.56B	5.82B	5.09B	2.47B	1.38B	6.05B
	Total Liabilities
26.81B	26.07B	25.20B	26.22B	25.00B	23.48B
	Stockholders Equity
17.69B	17.58B	16.69B	15.55B	13.98B	10.17B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
1.60B	2.35B	455.00M	1.67B	5.60B	1.06B
	Operating Cash Flow
6.32B	7.16B	5.28B	5.14B	7.71B	3.02B
	Investing Cash Flow
-4.93B	-5.03B	-4.96B	-3.44B	-1.96B	-1.26B
	Financing Cash Flow
-2.79B	-3.28B	-2.65B	-1.62B	-1.34B	-128.00M

Freeport-McMoRan Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 40.94
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.90, above the 50-day MA of 37.13, and above the 200-day MA of 40.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FCX.

Freeport-McMoRan Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NEM	81 Outperform	$64.44B	13.00	16.64%	1.73%	48.69%	―
RIO	77 Outperform	$98.46B	8.15	20.93%	7.76%	-0.81%	14.59%
SCCO	76 Outperform	$76.19B	21.16	41.93%	2.92%	23.23%	53.35%
FCX	74 Outperform	$58.80B	33.79	10.10%	1.47%	2.84%	6.35%
VALE	73 Outperform	$40.14B	6.96	15.98%	7.89%	-9.59%	-25.35%
MT	67 Neutral	$25.13B	17.73	2.60%	0.78%	-8.56%	68.36%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.03B	-1.27	-21.09%	3.98%	2.91%	-30.50%

Freeport-McMoRan Corporate Events

Freeport-McMoRan Approves 2025 Stock Incentive Plan

At the 2025 Annual Meeting of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. held on June 11, 2025, stockholders approved the 2025 Stock Incentive Plan, which replaces the 2016 Plan and authorizes the issuance of up to 43,820,000 shares of common stock. The meeting also saw the election of twelve directors, approval of executive compensation, and ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025. The Plan’s approval is expected to impact the company’s operations by providing a new framework for stock-based compensation, potentially influencing employee incentives and aligning interests with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (FCX) stock is a Hold with a $58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Freeport-McMoRan stock, see the FCX Stock Forecast page.

Freeport-McMoRan Reports Strong Q1 2025 Earnings

In the first quarter of 2025, Freeport-McMoRan reported a net income of $352 million, with copper sales exceeding expectations and gold sales impacted by shipment timing. The company is advancing its new smelter in Indonesia, set to start mid-2025, and is benefiting from favorable pricing for its products. Freeport maintains a strong financial position, with significant operating cash flows and capital expenditures aimed at major mining projects and new processing facilities.

Freeport-McMoRan Updates on Q1 2025 Operations

On March 31, 2025, Freeport-McMoRan provided an operational update for the first quarter of 2025, indicating that copper and gold production met expectations. However, gold sales were impacted by shipment timing in Indonesia, although no material effect on annual sales guidance is anticipated. The company resumed concentrate export shipments from Indonesia after regulatory approvals and continues to ramp up production at its new precious metals refinery. Despite higher unit net cash costs due to shipment timing, the company expects its consolidated copper sales to align with previous guidance and anticipates higher realized copper prices compared to the London Metal Exchange average.