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Freeport-McMoRan
(NYSE:FCX)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$72.00
▲(2.55% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:07/23/26
FCX scores well on underlying financial strength (profitability and improving leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook tied to operational ramp-ups and multi-year volume growth. The overall score is held back by a high P/E and mixed near-term technical momentum (negative MACD despite an uptrend versus key moving averages).
Positive Factors
Scale & Diversified Asset Base
Freeport’s global, large-scale portfolio across the Americas and Indonesia provides durable production optionality and by-product offsets (gold, moly). Geographic and asset diversification reduces single-site risk, supports steady long-term supply to growing copper demand and underpins margin resilience.
Negative Factors
Rising Project Capital Intensity
Material upward revisions to major project costs increase funding needs and lengthen payback periods. Higher capex raises execution complexity, ties up cash for years, compresses near-term free cash flow available for other projects or returns, and heightens sensitivity to copper price cycles during build periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Diversified Asset Base
Freeport’s global, large-scale portfolio across the Americas and Indonesia provides durable production optionality and by-product offsets (gold, moly). Geographic and asset diversification reduces single-site risk, supports steady long-term supply to growing copper demand and underpins margin resilience.
Read all positive factors
Freeport-McMoRan Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Breaks down revenue by different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and revealing the company's strategic focus and market positioning.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFreeport-McMoRan (FCX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$93.44B
Dividend Yield0.94%
Average Volume (3M)14.32M
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.3
Beta (1Y)1.75
Revenue Growth-1.26%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees29,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.03
Shares Outstanding1,437,559,800
10 Day Avg. Volume15,030,755
30 Day Avg. Volume14,322,058
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.98
Price to Book (P/B)3.88
Price to Sales (P/S)2.85
P/FCF Ratio65.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$74.92Price Target Upside6.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering14
EPS Forecast (FY)2.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$28.73B
Freeport-McMoRan Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is a prominent mining enterprise conducting extensive operations across North America, South America, and Indonesia. The company primarily focuses on the exploration and extraction of key mineral resources such as copper, gol...
How the Company Makes Money
Freeport-McMoRan makes money primarily by producing and selling mined metals, with copper as its dominant revenue driver. The company generates revenue from (1) sales of copper produced from its mines and processing facilities, including copper co...
Freeport-McMoRan Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized clear operational progress (Grasberg ramp, Morenci mine-rate gains), strong financial leverage to rising copper prices, a robust organic growth pipeline (Baghdad, El Abra, leach scaling) and disciplined capital allocation including shareholder returns. Challenges include capital cost inflation (notably Baghdad and higher 2027 capex), energy and input volatility, timing/sequencing impacts on quarterly sales, and regulatory timing risk for the Grasberg license extension. On balance, the positives — operational execution, market backdrop, and financial strength — outweigh the manageable risks and cost pressures.Positive Updates
Grasberg Ramp-Up Strong Execution
Grasberg Block Cave production rates doubled in Q2 from an April average of ~34,000 tpd to ~69,000 tpd in June; management targets district rates of approximately ~65% of full capacity by mid-2027 and approaching full capacity by end-2027.
Negative Updates
Capital Cost Escalation
Baghdad preliminary capital estimate is ~30% above the 2023 estimate (management cites commodity and labor escalation and scope/engineering updates); 2027 capex forecast increased to ~$4.8 billion (~$300M above April estimate).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Grasberg Ramp-Up Strong Execution
Grasberg Block Cave production rates doubled in Q2 from an April average of ~34,000 tpd to ~69,000 tpd in June; management targets district rates of approximately ~65% of full capacity by mid-2027 and approaching full capacity by end-2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 and multi‑year guidance with a 2026 average unit net cash cost of ≈$1.90/lb (vs April $1.95), second‑half copper sales >20% higher than first half and gold sales >65% higher, and 2027 copper sales expected >20% above 2026 (gold >50%) with further growth into 2028; Grasberg Block Cave production doubled from ~34k tpd in April to ~69k tpd in June and the district is targeted to run at ~65% of full capacity by mid‑2027 and approach full capacity by end‑2027; the Americas leach initiative targets a near‑term run rate of ~300M lb by year‑end on a pathway to ~800M lb/yr; preliminary Baghdad expansion CapEx is ≈$4.5B (≈30% above 2023 estimate), still economic at ~$4/lb Cu with a 3–4 year build; companywide 2027 CapEx ≈$4.8B (≈$300M above April) with discretionary capital ≈$1.6B in 2026 and $1.9B in 2027 (~50% for Kucing Liar/LNG); modeled annual EBITDA ranges ≈$13B at $5/lb Cu to ≈$20B at $7/lb (operating cash flow ≈$9.5B–$15.5B), with sensitivities of ~$390M EBITDA per $0.10/lb Cu, ~$105M per $100/oz Au and ~$85M per $1/lb Mo (models assume Au $4k/oz, Mo $30/lb); US mining rates (Morenci) rose ~30% vs 5‑yr average, the US business targets a ~60% potential production increase over coming years, and the balance sheet remains investment grade with no significant 2026 maturities, H1 shareholder returns of ~$600M (≈$200M buybacks) and $6.3B returned since 2021.Freeport-McMoRan Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
81
Very Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 25.87B | 25.74B | 25.45B | 22.71B | 23.33B | 22.36B |
| Gross Profit | 6.95B | 6.95B | 7.50B | 6.88B | 8.09B | 8.29B |
| EBITDA | 9.00B | 8.76B | 9.47B | 8.59B | 9.29B | 10.26B |
| Net Income | 2.94B | 2.20B | 1.88B | 1.84B | 3.46B | 4.30B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 59.73B | 58.17B | 54.85B | 52.51B | 51.09B | 48.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.08B | 4.05B | 3.92B | 5.97B | 8.15B | 8.07B |
| Total Debt | 10.36B | 11.50B | 9.74B | 10.20B | 10.95B | 9.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.50B | 27.40B | 26.07B | 25.20B | 26.22B | 25.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.11B | 18.90B | 17.58B | 16.69B | 15.55B | 13.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.92B | 1.12B | 2.35B | 455.00M | 1.67B | 5.60B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.92B | 5.61B | 7.16B | 5.28B | 5.14B | 7.71B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.22B | -4.47B | -5.03B | -4.96B | -3.25B | -1.78B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.13B | -1.88B | -3.28B | -2.65B | -1.81B | -1.52B |
Freeport-McMoRan Technical Analysis
Positive
70.21
Price Trends
63.63
Negative
62.31
Positive
56.24
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.47
Negative
53.32
Neutral
91.17
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.21 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.94, above the 50-day MA of 63.63, and above the 200-day MA of 56.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.17 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FCX.
Freeport-McMoRan Risk Analysis
Freeport-McMoRan disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Freeport-McMoRan reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Freeport-McMoRan Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $163.09B | 26.68 | 45.96% | 2.07% | 32.80% | 55.92% | |
76 Outperform | $102.22B | 11.91 | 25.22% | 0.95% | 25.14% | 73.19% | |
70 Outperform | $93.44B | 31.30 | 14.52% | 1.25% | -1.26% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $157.31B | 14.84 | 16.59% | 4.60% | 7.59% | -13.66% | |
66 Neutral | $61.38B | 21.78 | 7.68% | 10.04% | 4.64% | -51.66% | |
63 Neutral | $49.32B | 17.14 | 5.35% | 1.03% | -1.31% | 149.74% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
FCX
Freeport-McMoRan
63.50
19.40
43.97%
MT
ArcelorMittal
66.12
32.86
98.79%
NEM
Newmont Mining
94.72
33.86
55.63%
RIO
Rio Tinto
91.51
30.87
50.90%
SCCO
Southern Copper
182.22
88.69
94.83%
VALE
Vale SA
14.83
5.34
56.34%
Freeport-McMoRan Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Freeport-McMoRan Delivers Strong Q2 2026 Copper Results
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
Freeport-McMoRan reported that in the second quarter of 2026 it generated net income attributable to common stock of $984 million, or $0.68 per share, with adjusted net income of $1.1 billion, or $0.74 per share, on revenues of $7.03 billion. The ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Freeport-McMoRan Shareholders Elect Board, Back Executive Pay
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
At Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, held on June 10, 2026, shareholders elected eleven directors to serve until the next annual meeting, following a previously announced reduction of the board from twelve to eleve...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Freeport-McMoRan Secures New $3 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
May 20, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan and its Indonesian subsidiary PT Freeport Indonesia entered into a new five-year, $3.0 billion senior unsecured revolving credit facility with a syndicate of banks led by JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, replac...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Freeport-McMoRan Posts Strong First-Quarter 2026 Results
Positive
Apr 23, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Freeport-McMoRan reported strong first-quarter 2026 results, with net income attributable to common stock of $881 million, or $0.61 per share, and adjusted net income of $830 million, or $0.57, as revenues, operating income and ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.