Safehold (SAFE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $970.86M
• Dividend Yield: 5.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 421.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.40
• Revenue Growth: 1.30%
• EPS Growth: -6.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 74
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.41
• Shares Outstanding: 71,756,330
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 471,644
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 421,559
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.61
• P/FCF Ratio: 34.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 15.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.21
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.22
• 1Y Price Target: $18.40
• Price Target Upside: 35.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.63
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $377.32M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.50 ▲(7.17% Upside)

Safehold's overall stock score reflects strong profitability and attractive valuation, tempered by high leverage and declining cash flow. Recent corporate events and earnings call insights provide a positive outlook, but technical indicators suggest caution due to bearish trends.

Positive Factors

Strong Profitability

High profit margins indicate efficient operations and pricing power, supporting long-term financial health and competitive positioning.

Robust Liquidity Position

A strong liquidity position enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and cushioning against economic downturns.

Leadership Enhancement

New leadership with extensive industry experience can drive strategic growth and operational excellence, strengthening market position.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, potentially limiting flexibility in downturns and increasing vulnerability to interest rate hikes.

Declining Cash Flow

Declining cash flow growth can strain operations and limit investment capacity, impacting long-term growth and stability.

Challenges with Master Lease

Litigation and lease termination issues can disrupt revenue streams and create uncertainties, affecting financial performance and reputation.

Safehold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Through its modern ground lease capital solution, Safehold helps owners of high quality multifamily, office, industrial, hospitality and mixed-use properties in major markets throughout the United States generate higher returns with less risk. The Company, which is taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and is managed by its largest shareholder, iStar Inc., seeks to deliver safe, growing income and long-term capital appreciation to its shareholders.

How the Company Makes Money

Safehold generates revenue primarily through the collection of rent from its ground leases. The company enters into long-term ground lease agreements with property developers and owners, allowing them to utilize the land while Safehold retains ownership. These leases typically span periods of 49 to 99 years, providing a stable and predictable income stream. Additionally, Safehold benefits from the appreciation of land values over time, which enhances the overall value of its portfolio. The company may also engage in partnerships with developers or other real estate firms to expand its footprint and leverage expertise in urban development, further contributing to its revenue growth. The combination of long-term lease agreements and the potential for land value appreciation forms the backbone of Safehold's revenue model.

Safehold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Safehold demonstrates strong profitability and operational efficiency, as evidenced by high margins. However, the company faces challenges with high leverage and declining cash flow growth, which could impact future financial flexibility. While revenue growth is stable, the company needs to manage its debt levels and improve cash flow generation to sustain long-term growth.

Income Statement

Safehold's income statement shows strong profitability with a high gross profit margin of 98.89% and a solid net profit margin of 27.45% for TTM. Revenue growth is modest at 1.63% TTM, indicating stable but slow growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 82.66% and 85.76% respectively, reflecting efficient operations. However, the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.83, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if interest rates rise. Return on equity is low at 4.39%, suggesting limited profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio stands at 33.44%, showing a moderate level of equity financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by -18.22% TTM, which is concerning. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.42, indicating that cash generation is not fully aligned with net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.0, suggesting that all net income is being converted into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	379.55M	365.69M	352.58M	270.31M	187.01M	158.73M
Gross Profit	375.06M	361.46M	347.93M	267.20M	184.35M	156.25M
EBITDA	331.43M	320.36M	140.41M	285.57M	165.05M	135.92M
Net Income	112.63M	105.76M	-54.97M	135.42M	73.12M	59.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.15B	6.90B	6.55B	5.85B	4.52B	3.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	21.26M	15.58M	28.47M	20.07M	29.62M	56.95M
Total Debt	4.58B	4.23B	3.97B	3.53B	2.70B	1.69B
Total Liabilities	4.73B	4.53B	4.25B	3.69B	2.83B	1.83B
Stockholders Equity	2.39B	2.34B	2.23B	2.14B	1.68B	1.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	43.39M	37.85M	15.39M	64.85M	-1.22B	5.00M
Operating Cash Flow	43.39M	37.85M	15.39M	64.85M	26.92M	61.76M
Investing Cash Flow	-201.53M	-212.37M	-576.57M	-1.15B	-1.29B	-8.20M
Financing Cash Flow	155.14M	144.89M	559.53M	1.09B	1.20B	-255.47M

Safehold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.53
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAFE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.66, below the 50-day MA of 14.02, and below the 200-day MA of 15.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAFE.

Safehold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAFE	66 Neutral	$970.86M	8.51	4.82%	5.13%	1.30%	-6.14%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ESRT	65 Neutral	$1.10B	31.48	3.80%	2.16%	0.45%	-24.85%
GNL	62 Neutral	$1.88B	-7.06	-12.53%	10.29%	-28.94%	-28.24%
AHH	61 Neutral	$529.81M	48.89	4.09%	9.50%	-39.94%	―
GOOD	60 Neutral	$513.64M	57.07	5.96%	11.56%	4.95%	-6.49%
AAT	59 Neutral	$1.16B	18.60	5.29%	7.31%	5.95%	5.06%

Safehold Corporate Events

Safehold Amends Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase

On December 5, 2025, Safehold Inc. and its affiliate Safehold GL Holdings LLC amended their RCF Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank and other financial institutions. The amendment aligns the financial covenants with those of a previously announced unsecured term loan, requiring Safehold to maintain specific financial ratios, which could impact its financial stability and borrowing capacity.

Safehold Appoints Michael Trachtenberg as President

On December 1, 2025, Safehold Inc. announced the appointment of Michael Trachtenberg as President. Trachtenberg, a seasoned real estate professional with over two decades of experience, will work closely with CEO Jay Sugarman to oversee operations and drive the company’s growth. His appointment follows an extensive search process by the Board, highlighting his track record in driving growth and operational excellence. Trachtenberg’s expertise is expected to support Safehold’s strategic priorities and enhance its position in the ground lease market, benefiting shareholders and stakeholders alike.

Safehold Secures $400M Loan to Boost Liquidity

On November 25, 2025, Safehold Inc. announced the closing of a $400 million unsecured term loan agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and other financial institutions. This loan, which matures on November 15, 2030, with two one-year extension options, was fully drawn to repay existing borrowings and enhance liquidity. The agreement includes an accordion feature to increase the loan amount up to $600 million, subject to conditions. This strategic financial move boosts Safehold’s liquidity to $1.3 billion, allowing the company to unencumber assets and address near-term debt maturities, thereby strengthening its market position and shareholder value.

Safehold Releases Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation

On November 5, 2025, Safehold Inc. released its earnings presentation for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, on its website. The presentation is provided for informational purposes and is not considered filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor will it be incorporated into any registration statements under the Securities Act of 1933 unless specifically referenced.

Safehold Updates Caret Performance Incentive Plan Details

Safehold Inc. announced details regarding its Caret Performance Incentive Plan as of September 30, 2025. The company holds all GL units of Portfolio Holdings and has awarded Caret units to employees and third-party investors. As of the stated date, 14.4% of Caret units are owned by officers and employees, with 128,971 units available for future awards. Additionally, Safehold owns 84.3% of the outstanding Caret units, with significant involvement from third-party investors like MSD Partners, L.P. This update highlights the company’s strategic focus on incentivizing performance and maintaining significant control over its Caret units, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.