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Safehold (SAFE)
NYSE:SAFE
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Safehold (SAFE) AI Stock Analysis

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SAFE

Safehold

(NYSE:SAFE)

Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(11.11%Upside)
Safehold's overall stock score reflects a balance between solid profitability and growth prospects against challenges of high leverage and market volatility. The company's valuation appears attractive, enhancing its appeal to value-focused investors. However, technical indicators and market conditions suggest caution in the short term.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
SAFE delivered a first quarter EPS slightly above analyst estimates, indicating better-than-expected financial performance.
Liquidity
The company maintains a strong liquidity position of $1.3 billion with no debt maturities until 2027.
Negative Factors
Interest Rate Environment
Interest rate volatility and economic uncertainty have been a headwind with investment activity declining.
New Deal Originations
There were no new originations in the quarter compared to $22 million in the previous quarter.

Safehold (SAFE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Safehold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSafehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Through its modern ground lease capital solution, Safehold helps owners of high quality multifamily, office, industrial, hospitality and mixed-use properties in major markets throughout the United States generate higher returns with less risk. The Company, which is taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and is managed by its largest shareholder, iStar Inc., seeks to deliver safe, growing income and long-term capital appreciation to its shareholders.
How the Company Makes MoneySafehold makes money primarily through the acquisition and management of ground leases. Ground leases separate ownership of the land from the ownership of the buildings on it. Safehold purchases the land underlying commercial properties and then leases it back to the property owners under long-term agreements. The company generates revenue from the rent payments made by these property owners. Additionally, Safehold benefits from the appreciation of the land value over time. Key revenue streams include the rent collected from ground leases and potential gains from the appreciation of the land. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships with developers and property owners to structure ground leases that provide mutually beneficial financial terms.

Safehold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -5.14%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a cautious optimism with a strong pipeline and strategic growth initiatives, but significant challenges from market volatility and interest rate impacts. While there are notable achievements in portfolio growth and a strong capital structure, the lack of new originations and the decline in earnings highlight ongoing market challenges.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Pipeline for Future Deals
Non-binding LOIs totaling approximately $386 million for potential commitments across 11 ground leases and 4 loans, indicating a robust pipeline and potential growth in the multifamily and affordable housing sectors.
Portfolio Growth and Diversification
The total portfolio increased to $6.8 billion with a focus on multifamily ground leases, which now represent 58% of the portfolio from 8% at IPO. The portfolio also includes diverse property types such as office, hotels, and life science spaces.
High Credit Metrics and Liquidity
Strong credit metrics with a rent coverage of 3.5 times and a liquidity position of $1.3 billion supported by potential available capacity in joint ventures.
Advantageous Capital Structure
Weighted average debt maturity of 19 years with no corporate maturities due until 2027, and an active hedging strategy that has led to significant interest savings.
Negative Updates
Interest Rate Volatility Impact
Market volatility and high interest rates led to no new originations in Q1, delaying several transactions and impacting investment activity.
Decline in GAAP Earnings
GAAP revenue was $97.7 million with a net income of $29.4 million and earnings per share of $0.41, affected by a non-recurring $1.9 million loss on a preferred equity investment.
Market Challenges and Uncertainty
Continued market uncertainty and volatility in rates and tariffs pose challenges in deal closures and capital deployment, affecting the pace of new acquisitions.
Company Guidance
During Safehold’s first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a challenging market environment for new deals, with no new originations for the quarter due to interest rate volatility and market uncertainty. However, they noted an increase in signed letters of intent (LOIs), totaling approximately $386 million across 11 ground leases and 4 loans, with six of these in the affordable housing sector. The total portfolio was valued at $6.8 billion, with an estimated unrealized capital appreciation (UCA) of $8.9 billion, a ground lease-to-value (GLTV) ratio of 52%, and rent coverage of 3.5 times. GAAP revenue for the quarter was $97.7 million, with a net income of $29.4 million, resulting in earnings per share of $0.41. The company ended the quarter with $1.3 billion in liquidity and highlighted a stable capital structure with a weighted average debt maturity of 19 years and an effective interest rate on permanent debt of 4.2%. They emphasized their focus on scaling the business and exploring capital recycling strategies to unlock portfolio value amid current market conditions.

Safehold Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Safehold demonstrates solid revenue growth and profitability with strong margins. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio and moderate cash generation pose potential risks, especially if economic conditions worsen.
Income Statement
68
Positive
Safehold's revenue has shown consistent growth over the past few years, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.37% from the previous year. The company's gross profit margin is strong at 98.19%, indicating excellent control over cost of goods sold. The net profit margin for the TTM is 28.17%, reflecting solid profitability, though slightly down from the previous year. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 37.11% and 84.83%, respectively, indicating strong operational efficiency. However, past volatility in net income suggests potential risks in maintaining profitability.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Safehold's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.81, indicating significant leverage. However, the return on equity is healthy at 4.44%, demonstrating effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 33.93%, suggesting moderate reliance on equity financing. While the company has a stable asset base, the high leverage could pose risks in an adverse economic environment.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
The company has shown positive free cash flow growth, with a TTM growth rate of 31.64%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.48, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.48, indicating adequate cash generation relative to net income. However, the cash flow from operations is relatively low compared to the debt levels, which could impact future liquidity if not managed carefully.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue365.69M352.58M158.05M187.01M155.43M
Gross Profit361.46M347.93M-55.05M184.35M152.95M
EBITDA320.36M140.41M229.76M163.43M135.92M
Net Income105.76M-54.97M-197.27M73.12M59.29M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.90B6.55B3.25B4.52B3.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments15.58M28.47M1.44B29.62M56.95M
Total Debt4.23B3.97B1.60B2.70B1.69B
Total Liabilities4.53B4.25B1.83B2.83B1.83B
Stockholders Equity2.34B2.23B1.41B1.68B1.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow37.85M15.39M24.61M-1.22B-21.04M
Operating Cash Flow37.85M15.39M47.67M26.92M35.71M
Investing Cash Flow-212.37M-576.57M2.79B-1.29B-530.64M
Financing Cash Flow144.89M559.53M-1.78B1.20B544.62M

Safehold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price14.40
Price Trends
50DMA
15.19
Negative
100DMA
15.88
Negative
200DMA
17.50
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.16
Positive
RSI
37.73
Neutral
STOCH
14.76
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAFE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.25, below the 50-day MA of 15.19, and below the 200-day MA of 17.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAFE.

Safehold Risk Analysis

Safehold disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Safehold reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Safehold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$1.22B15.046.74%6.77%12.64%49.11%
69
Neutral
$622.03M46.167.51%8.99%3.01%
66
Neutral
$3.00B26.723.79%7.36%0.73%-37.65%
62
Neutral
$1.06B9.964.51%4.92%1.54%
61
Neutral
AU$2.87B8.344.17%5.12%17.25%41.52%
59
Neutral
$1.25B32.835.44%1.89%4.36%-8.72%
57
Neutral
$1.60B-13.01%13.01%16.69%39.04%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SAFE
Safehold
14.40
-7.40
-33.94%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
13.35
-0.45
-3.26%
ESRT
Empire State Realty
7.39
-3.14
-29.82%
AAT
American Assets
19.93
-3.55
-15.12%
GNL
Global Net Lease
7.02
-0.77
-9.88%
BNL
Broadstone Net Lease
15.77
-1.05
-6.24%

Safehold Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Safehold Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer
Positive
Jun 10, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Safehold Inc. announced the appointment of Christopher Uhlick as the new Chief Accounting Officer, effective July 7, 2025. Mr. Uhlick, who has extensive experience in accounting and financial reporting, will succeed Brett Asnas, who will continue as the Chief Financial Officer. This leadership change is expected to strengthen Safehold’s financial operations and maintain its strategic focus in the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAFE) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Safehold stock, see the SAFE Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Safehold Elects Directors and Ratifies Auditor
Neutral
May 16, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Safehold held its Annual Meeting virtually, where shareholders elected five directors to serve until the 2026 Annual Meeting. Additionally, the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified, and a non-binding advisory vote approved the compensation of the company’s named executive officers.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAFE) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Safehold stock, see the SAFE Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Safehold Releases Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation
Neutral
May 6, 2025

On May 6, 2025, Safehold Inc. released an earnings presentation for the quarter ending March 31, 2025. The presentation, available on their website, is not considered filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, indicating it is for informational purposes only and not subject to certain legal liabilities.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Safehold Completes Vesting of Caret Units by March 2025
Positive
May 6, 2025

Safehold Inc. announced that as of March 31, 2025, all outstanding Caret units awarded under its Caret Performance Incentive Plan are fully vested, except for certain grants related to its merger with iStar on March 31, 2023. The company has sold 122,500 Caret units to third-party investors, and it owns 84.3% of the outstanding Caret units. This development reflects Safehold’s strategic efforts to align its employee incentives with its market performance and to attract external investment, potentially impacting its stock valuation and stakeholder interests.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2025