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Safehold
(NYSE:SAFE)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
â–²(16.28% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/17/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated leverage and uneven cash flow conversion despite strong recent revenue/margin rebound. Offsetting this, technicals are positive (price above key moving averages with positive MACD) and valuation is attractive (low P/E with a ~4.5% yield), while recent financing/JV actions improve flexibility but concentration risks remain a key watch item.
Positive Factors
Durable ground-lease business model
Safehold’s core model—owning land and issuing long-duration, typically triple-net ground leases—creates contractually predictable, long-term cash flows and inflation-linked escalation mechanics. Triple-net structure shifts operating cost risk to tenants, supporting durable rent receipts and lower operating volatility for the REIT.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
A debt-to-equity ratio near 2.0 that has risen from prior years constrains financial flexibility. High leverage increases sensitivity to rising interest costs, limits capacity for opportunistic investment without additional funding, and raises refinancing and covenant risks if market conditions deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable ground-lease business model
Safehold’s core model—owning land and issuing long-duration, typically triple-net ground leases—creates contractually predictable, long-term cash flows and inflation-linked escalation mechanics. Triple-net structure shifts operating cost risk to tenants, supporting durable rent receipts and lower operating volatility for the REIT.
Read all positive factors
Safehold Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Safehold (SAFE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.12B
Dividend Yield5.13%
Average Volume (3M)338.51K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth4.14%
EPS Growth7.22%
CountryUS
Employees74
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.59
Shares Outstanding71,610,000
10 Day Avg. Volume375,820
30 Day Avg. Volume338,513
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.55
P/FCF Ratio20.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.39
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.17Price Target Upside17.36% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$436.94M
Safehold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is fundamentally transforming real estate ownership by offering property owners an innovative and superior method to extract the inherent value from the land supporting their structures. Through its modern ground lease f...
How the Company Makes Money
Safehold primarily makes money by owning land and collecting contractually owed rent from long-term ground leases. Under its typical structure, Safehold acquires the land beneath an existing (or to-be-developed) building while the building owner e...
Safehold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple positive developments—credit rating upgrades to single-A, improved liquidity ($1.2B), a $400M unsecured term loan that reduced near-term refinancing risk, steady portfolio growth (portfolio $7.1B, UCA $9.3B, 21x growth since IPO), and YoY EPS improvement (Q4 ex-items +15%, FY ex-items +5%). Management also laid out strategic initiatives (affordable housing expansion, one-stop capital solutions, buybacks) and highlighted attractive economic yield upside (5.9% economic yield, 7.3% after Carat uplift). Key challenges included an unrecognized Carat valuation that requires market conditions to monetize, concentration of originations in California, ongoing Park Hotels litigation (court date 2027, ~$7M cost), a decline in management fee revenue, and contingent buyback execution tied to leverage and market timing. Overall, the positive operational and capital-markets progress and multiple credit and liquidity wins outweigh the outstanding uncertainties and contingent costs.Positive Updates
Transaction Activity and Funding
Q4 2025: closed 10 transactions (nine ground leases, one leasehold loan) for aggregate commitments of $167,000,000; Q4 fundings totaled $60,000,000 (including $44,000,000 new ground lease fundings at 7.3% economic yield). Fiscal 2025: closed 17 ground leases ($277,000,000) and 4 leasehold loans ($152,000,000) for total commitments of $429,000,000; full-year fundings $252,000,000.
Negative Updates
Carat Value Largely Unrecognized
Management emphasized that Carat represents significant unrealized value that the market is not recognizing today; monetization or liquidity events are dependent on market activity, investor sentiment, and continued portfolio growth—no definitive near-term monetization plan announced.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transaction Activity and Funding
Q4 2025: closed 10 transactions (nine ground leases, one leasehold loan) for aggregate commitments of $167,000,000; Q4 fundings totaled $60,000,000 (including $44,000,000 new ground lease fundings at 7.3% economic yield). Fiscal 2025: closed 17 ground leases ($277,000,000) and 4 leasehold loans ($152,000,000) for total commitments of $429,000,000; full-year fundings $252,000,000.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Safehold’s guidance for 2026 is focused on three priorities: grow ground‑lease originations above 2025 levels (in 2025 the company closed 17 ground leases totaling $277M and funded $252M for the year; Q4 closed 10 transactions with $167M commitments and $60M funded), increase visibility/monetization of Carat (management cites UCA of ~$9.3B versus a $7.1B portfolio and says Carat upside could lift economic yield from 5.9% to ~7.3% using Safehold’s 84% stake), and begin share repurchases when trading windows and market conditions allow while remaining leverage‑disciplined (target total debt/ equity ~2.0x; every $240M funded raises leverage ~0.1x) and preserving liquidity (~$1.2B cash/credit availability); key portfolio and funding metrics to watch are GLTV 52%, rent coverage 3.4x, cash yield 3.8% / GAAP annualized yield 5.4% / economic yield 5.9% (81% of leases have CPI lookbacks; Fed breakeven 2.25% implied inflation‑adjusted yield ~6.1%), effective permanent debt cost 4.3% (portfolio cash interest 3.9%), weighted average debt maturity ~18 years, and ratings A3 / A- / A-.Safehold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 392.62M | 385.55M | 365.69M | 352.58M | 270.31M | 187.01M |
| Gross Profit | 382.95M | 363.70M | 361.46M | 347.93M | 267.20M | 184.35M |
| EBITDA | 335.22M | 332.80M | 320.36M | 140.41M | 285.57M | 165.05M |
| Net Income | 113.97M | 114.47M | 105.76M | -54.97M | 135.42M | 73.12M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.38B | 7.25B | 6.90B | 6.55B | 5.85B | 4.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.14M | 23.73M | 15.58M | 28.47M | 20.07M | 29.62M |
| Total Debt | 4.60B | 4.49B | 4.23B | 3.97B | 3.53B | 2.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.92B | 4.81B | 4.53B | 4.25B | 3.69B | 2.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.43B | 2.41B | 2.34B | 2.23B | 2.14B | 1.68B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 30.31M | 47.81M | 37.85M | 15.39M | 64.85M | -1.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 30.31M | 47.81M | 37.85M | 15.39M | 64.85M | 26.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -315.55M | -237.18M | -212.37M | -576.57M | -1.15B | -1.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 287.38M | 202.98M | 144.89M | 559.53M | 1.09B | 1.20B |
Safehold Technical Analysis
Positive
15.48
Price Trends
15.12
Positive
14.88
Positive
14.44
Positive
Market Momentum
0.24
Negative
54.99
Neutral
73.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAFE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.44, above the 50-day MA of 15.12, and above the 200-day MA of 14.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SAFE.
Safehold Risk Analysis
Safehold disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Safehold reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Safehold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.12B | 10.02 | 4.75% | 5.13% | 4.14% | 7.22% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $599.97M | 27.27 | 9.74% | 11.56% | 9.64% | -38.93% | |
59 Neutral | $932.85M | 25.22 | 3.77% | 2.16% | 1.53% | -31.93% | |
59 Neutral | $1.52B | 83.75 | 1.93% | 7.31% | -12.40% | -77.27% | |
51 Neutral | $1.89B | -23.09 | -2.44% | 10.29% | -35.44% | 50.75% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
SAFE
Safehold
15.70
0.64
4.24%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
12.30
-0.89
-6.75%
ESRT
Empire State Realty
5.41
-2.68
-33.16%
AAT
American Assets
24.69
5.79
30.63%
GNL
Global Net Lease
8.94
1.90
27.04%
Safehold Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Safehold Announces $225 Million Long-Term Unsecured Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
On June 15, 2026, Safehold’s operating company Safehold GL Holdings LLC entered into a definitive note purchase agreement for a $225 million private placement of structured senior unsecured notes due August 1, 2056. The notes, priced off the...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Safehold Forms Ground Lease Joint Venture with Brookfield
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
On June 11, 2024, Safehold Inc. announced it had formed a joint venture with a Brookfield affiliate involving a diversified portfolio of U.S. ground leases that generate approximately $14 million in current annualized cash ground rent. Brookfield ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Safehold Shareholders Expand Equity Plan and Elect Directors
Positive
May 15, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Safehold Inc. shareholders approved an amendment to the company’s Amended and Restated 2009 Long-Term Incentive Plan, expanding the pool of common shares available for equity awards by 3,000,000 to a total of 3,481,936 share...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Safehold Posts Solid Q1 2026 Results, Pipeline Expands
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Safehold Inc. reported first-quarter 2026 results, posting revenue of $110.9 million and net income attributable to common shareholders of $28.9 million, or $0.40 per share. The company closed $68 million of new originations, in...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Safehold Highlights Caret Incentive Plan and CBRE Valuation Consent
Neutral
Apr 30, 2026
Safehold has detailed the structure and status of its Caret Performance Incentive Plan, which awards performance-based Caret units linked to the company’s ground lease portfolio and residual value. As of March 31, 2026, most Caret units gran...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.