Safehold (SAFE)
NYSE:SAFE
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Safehold
(NYSE:SAFE)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$15.00
â–²(11.28% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven most by mixed financial quality—strong growth and profitability but elevated/rising leverage and inconsistent cash-flow conversion. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is favorable (low P/E and strong dividend). Earnings-call commentary adds a modest positive tilt from credit/liquidity improvements and growth priorities, balanced by execution and concentration risks and contingent catalysts (Carat monetization and buybacks).
Positive Factors
Predictable contractual ground-lease cash flows
Safehold’s core business model—acquiring land and issuing long-term, generally triple-net ground leases—produces contractually predictable rent streams with scheduled escalations and tenant-responsible operating costs. That structure supports stable net rental margins and durable cash inflows to fund debt service and reinvestment over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Elevated and rising leverage
Total debt growth and near-2.0x debt-to-equity increase materially raise balance-sheet sensitivity to interest rates, asset valuation declines, and funding market dislocation. Higher leverage constrains capital flexibility, limits the pace of buybacks/originations without breaching targets, and amplifies downside if cash yields compress versus funding costs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Predictable contractual ground-lease cash flows
Safehold’s core business model—acquiring land and issuing long-term, generally triple-net ground leases—produces contractually predictable rent streams with scheduled escalations and tenant-responsible operating costs. That structure supports stable net rental margins and durable cash inflows to fund debt service and reinvestment over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Safehold (SAFE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$967.28M
Dividend Yield5.13%
Average Volume (3M)322.24K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.6
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth1.30%
EPS Growth-6.14%
CountryUS
Employees74
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.42
Shares Outstanding71,756,730
10 Day Avg. Volume371,434
30 Day Avg. Volume322,235
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.55
P/FCF Ratio20.53
Enterprise Value/Market Cap5.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda16.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.20Price Target Upside27.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$395.87M
Safehold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Through its modern ground lease capital solution, Safehold helps owners of hi...
How the Company Makes Money
Safehold primarily makes money by earning contractual ground rent from its portfolio of long-duration ground leases. In a typical transaction, Safehold acquires the land parcel beneath an existing or newly developed commercial property and simulta...
Safehold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple positive developments—credit rating upgrades to single-A, improved liquidity ($1.2B), a $400M unsecured term loan that reduced near-term refinancing risk, steady portfolio growth (portfolio $7.1B, UCA $9.3B, 21x growth since IPO), and YoY EPS improvement (Q4 ex-items +15%, FY ex-items +5%). Management also laid out strategic initiatives (affordable housing expansion, one-stop capital solutions, buybacks) and highlighted attractive economic yield upside (5.9% economic yield, 7.3% after Carat uplift). Key challenges included an unrecognized Carat valuation that requires market conditions to monetize, concentration of originations in California, ongoing Park Hotels litigation (court date 2027, ~$7M cost), a decline in management fee revenue, and contingent buyback execution tied to leverage and market timing. Overall, the positive operational and capital-markets progress and multiple credit and liquidity wins outweigh the outstanding uncertainties and contingent costs.Positive Updates
Transaction Activity and Funding
Q4 2025: closed 10 transactions (nine ground leases, one leasehold loan) for aggregate commitments of $167,000,000; Q4 fundings totaled $60,000,000 (including $44,000,000 new ground lease fundings at 7.3% economic yield). Fiscal 2025: closed 17 ground leases ($277,000,000) and 4 leasehold loans ($152,000,000) for total commitments of $429,000,000; full-year fundings $252,000,000.
Negative Updates
Carat Value Largely Unrecognized
Management emphasized that Carat represents significant unrealized value that the market is not recognizing today; monetization or liquidity events are dependent on market activity, investor sentiment, and continued portfolio growth—no definitive near-term monetization plan announced.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transaction Activity and Funding
Q4 2025: closed 10 transactions (nine ground leases, one leasehold loan) for aggregate commitments of $167,000,000; Q4 fundings totaled $60,000,000 (including $44,000,000 new ground lease fundings at 7.3% economic yield). Fiscal 2025: closed 17 ground leases ($277,000,000) and 4 leasehold loans ($152,000,000) for total commitments of $429,000,000; full-year fundings $252,000,000.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Safehold’s guidance for 2026 is focused on three priorities: grow ground‑lease originations above 2025 levels (in 2025 the company closed 17 ground leases totaling $277M and funded $252M for the year; Q4 closed 10 transactions with $167M commitments and $60M funded), increase visibility/monetization of Carat (management cites UCA of ~$9.3B versus a $7.1B portfolio and says Carat upside could lift economic yield from 5.9% to ~7.3% using Safehold’s 84% stake), and begin share repurchases when trading windows and market conditions allow while remaining leverage‑disciplined (target total debt/ equity ~2.0x; every $240M funded raises leverage ~0.1x) and preserving liquidity (~$1.2B cash/credit availability); key portfolio and funding metrics to watch are GLTV 52%, rent coverage 3.4x, cash yield 3.8% / GAAP annualized yield 5.4% / economic yield 5.9% (81% of leases have CPI lookbacks; Fed breakeven 2.25% implied inflation‑adjusted yield ~6.1%), effective permanent debt cost 4.3% (portfolio cash interest 3.9%), weighted average debt maturity ~18 years, and ratings A3 / A- / A-.Safehold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 385.55M | 365.69M | 352.58M | 270.31M | 187.01M |
| Gross Profit | 363.70M | 361.46M | 347.93M | 267.20M | 184.35M |
| EBITDA | 332.80M | 320.36M | 140.41M | 285.57M | 165.05M |
| Net Income | 114.47M | 105.76M | -54.97M | 135.42M | 73.12M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.25B | 6.90B | 6.55B | 5.85B | 4.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.73M | 15.58M | 28.47M | 20.07M | 29.62M |
| Total Debt | 4.49B | 4.23B | 3.97B | 3.53B | 2.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.81B | 4.53B | 4.25B | 3.69B | 2.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.41B | 2.34B | 2.23B | 2.14B | 1.68B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 47.81M | 37.85M | 15.39M | 64.85M | -1.22B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 47.81M | 37.85M | 15.39M | 64.85M | 26.92M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -237.18M | -212.37M | -576.57M | -1.15B | -1.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 202.98M | 144.89M | 559.53M | 1.09B | 1.20B |
Safehold Technical Analysis
Negative
13.48
Price Trends
14.63
Negative
14.08
Negative
14.46
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.42
Positive
36.88
Neutral
14.87
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAFE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.13, below the 50-day MA of 14.63, and below the 200-day MA of 14.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.87 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAFE.
Safehold Risk Analysis
Safehold disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Safehold reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Safehold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $967.28M | 8.57 | 4.81% | 5.13% | 1.30% | -6.14% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
61 Neutral | $864.76M | 13.27 | 4.56% | 2.16% | 0.45% | -24.85% | |
56 Neutral | $1.14B | 16.06 | 5.29% | 7.31% | 5.95% | 5.06% | |
54 Neutral | $569.73M | 26.11 | 8.70% | 11.56% | 4.95% | -6.49% | |
54 Neutral | $2.00B | -8.52 | -12.68% | 10.29% | -28.94% | -28.24% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
SAFE
Safehold
13.48
-2.30
-14.58%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
11.68
-0.46
-3.77%
ESRT
Empire State Realty
5.05
-1.85
-26.80%
AAT
American Assets
18.50
1.61
9.55%
GNL
Global Net Lease
9.32
2.85
43.96%
Safehold Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Safehold Files New Shelf Registration and Resale Prospectus
Neutral
Mar 25, 2026
On March 25, 2026, Safehold Inc. filed a new automatic shelf registration statement on Form S-3ASR with the SEC, replacing a prior shelf registration that had been in place since April 4, 2023 and was terminated upon the effectiveness of the new f...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Safehold Highlights Valuation Support for Ground Lease Portfolio
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
Safehold has detailed the status of its Caret Performance Incentive Plan, under which Caret units are granted as performance-based awards linked to the company’s stock price and vesting conditions. As of December 31, 2025, nearly all previou...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Safehold Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results, Enhances Credit Profile
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
Safehold Inc., a leading creator of modern ground leases and a real estate investment trust focused on high-quality commercial and residential property sectors, reported solid operating performance for the fourth quarter and full year ended Dec. 3...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.