Safehold (SAFE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.04B
• Dividend Yield: 4.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 434.78K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: 1.54%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 74
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.44
• Shares Outstanding: 71,723,270
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 372,828
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 434,776
• PEG Ratio: -0.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 34.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $20.14
• Price Target Upside: 38.90% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.00 ▲( 10.34% Upside)

Safehold's overall score reflects a balanced view of financial performance, valuation, and earnings call insights. The company's strong liquidity position and strategic initiatives in the multifamily market are positive, but high leverage and interest rate volatility pose risks. Technical indicators suggest caution with bearish momentum. Despite these challenges, the attractive valuation and dividend yield offer potential upside.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

SAFE delivered a first quarter EPS slightly above analyst estimates, indicating better-than-expected financial performance.

Future Growth Potential

The company has approximately $386 million in non-binding letters of intent in the pipeline, suggesting potential for future growth.

Liquidity and Financial Stability

The company maintains a strong liquidity position of $1.3 billion with no debt maturities until 2027.

Negative Factors

Deal Origination

Deal originations were zero during the quarter, indicating slow activity in securing new deals.

Interest Rate Sensitivity

The long duration of the asset class is particularly sensitive to rate moves, impacting the ability to fund or acquire ground leases.

Market Conditions

Interest rate volatility and economic uncertainty have been a headwind with investment activity declining.

Safehold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Through its modern ground lease capital solution, Safehold helps owners of high quality multifamily, office, industrial, hospitality and mixed-use properties in major markets throughout the United States generate higher returns with less risk. The Company, which is taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and is managed by its largest shareholder, iStar Inc., seeks to deliver safe, growing income and long-term capital appreciation to its shareholders.

How the Company Makes Money

Safehold makes money primarily through the creation and management of ground leases. The company acquires land underlying commercial properties and then leases it to the property owners on a long-term basis, typically 99 years. This arrangement allows Safehold to generate steady and predictable income from lease payments over the lease term. Additionally, Safehold benefits from potential value appreciation of the land over time. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with real estate developers and owners to expand its portfolio and enhance its revenue streams. By providing an alternative capital source for property owners, Safehold participates in the growth of the real estate market while maintaining a relatively low-risk investment profile.

Safehold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Safehold shows positive revenue and profitability trends with improved net income and free cash flow in 2024. However, high leverage and historical earnings volatility pose risks.

Income Statement

Safehold's revenue growth is consistent, with a 3.72% increase in 2024. Improvements in gross profit margin and net income indicate enhanced profitability. However, past years showed volatility in EBIT and EBITDA margins, with 2023 displaying negative EBIT. The overall profitability trend is positive, but historical fluctuations suggest caution.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet exhibits a high debt-to-equity ratio at 1.80, indicating significant leverage, which is typical for REITs. The equity ratio of 33.98% reflects a stable equity base. ROE improved to 4.51% in 2024, showcasing better returns on equity. The high leverage poses potential risks, but the company maintains a reasonable level of equity.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow showed significant improvement in 2024, turning positive compared to previous years. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating reliance on non-operating activities for cash. Despite recent improvements, cash flow stability remains a concern due to historical volatility.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
365.69M	352.58M	158.05M	187.01M	155.43M
	Gross Profit
361.46M	347.93M	-55.05M	184.35M	152.95M
	EBIT
87.08M	-77.08M	-7.11M	151.45M	123.84M
	EBITDA
320.36M	140.41M	229.76M	163.43M	135.92M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
105.76M	-54.97M	-197.27M	73.12M	59.29M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
15.58M	28.47M	1.44B	29.62M	56.95M
	Total Assets
6.90B	6.55B	3.25B	4.52B	3.21B
	Total Debt
4.23B	3.97B	1.60B	2.70B	1.69B
	Net Debt
4.22B	3.95B	157.90M	2.67B	1.63B
	Total Liabilities
4.53B	4.25B	1.83B	2.83B	1.83B
	Stockholders Equity
2.34B	2.23B	1.41B	1.68B	1.38B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
37.85M	15.39M	24.61M	-1.22B	-21.04M
	Operating Cash Flow
37.85M	15.39M	47.67M	26.92M	35.71M
	Investing Cash Flow
-212.37M	-576.57M	2.79B	-1.29B	-530.64M
	Financing Cash Flow
144.89M	559.53M	-1.78B	1.20B	544.62M

Safehold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 14.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAFE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.41, below the 50-day MA of 16.27, and below the 200-day MA of 19.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAFE.

Safehold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AAT	73 Outperform	$1.16B	14.38	6.74%	7.04%	12.64%	49.11%
BNL	67 Neutral	$2.92B	26.01	3.79%	7.50%	0.73%	-37.65%
GOOD	65 Neutral	$645.32M	47.89	7.51%	8.66%	3.01%	―
ESRT	64 Neutral	$1.23B	24.00	5.44%	1.93%	1.41%	3.11%
SAFE	60 Neutral	$1.04B	9.80	4.51%	4.88%	1.54%	―
Sector *	60 Neutral	$2.76B	10.33	0.49%	8508.28%	5.95%	-17.56%
GNL	60 Neutral	$1.73B	―	-13.01%	13.43%	16.69%	39.04%

Safehold Corporate Events

Safehold Elects Directors and Ratifies Auditor

On May 15, 2025, Safehold held its Annual Meeting virtually, where shareholders elected five directors to serve until the 2026 Annual Meeting. Additionally, the appointment of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, was ratified, and a non-binding advisory vote approved the compensation of the company’s named executive officers.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAFE) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Safehold stock, see the SAFE Stock Forecast page.

Safehold Releases Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation

On May 6, 2025, Safehold Inc. released an earnings presentation for the quarter ending March 31, 2025. The presentation, available on their website, is not considered filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, indicating it is for informational purposes only and not subject to certain legal liabilities.

Safehold Completes Vesting of Caret Units by March 2025

Safehold Inc. announced that as of March 31, 2025, all outstanding Caret units awarded under its Caret Performance Incentive Plan are fully vested, except for certain grants related to its merger with iStar on March 31, 2023. The company has sold 122,500 Caret units to third-party investors, and it owns 84.3% of the outstanding Caret units. This development reflects Safehold’s strategic efforts to align its employee incentives with its market performance and to attract external investment, potentially impacting its stock valuation and stakeholder interests.

Safehold Announces Board Member Jesse Hom’s Departure

On March 20, 2025, Jesse Hom informed Safehold Inc. that he will not seek re-election to the Board of Directors at the 2025 annual meeting and will resign from all his positions effective May 15, 2025. This decision is not due to any disagreement with the company’s operations or policies, and following his resignation, the Board will reduce its size from six to five directors.