Safehold (SAFE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.12B
• Dividend Yield: 5.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 347.97K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: 1.30%
• EPS Growth: -6.14%
• Country: US
• Employees: 74
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.42
• Shares Outstanding: 71,756,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 348,704
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 347,969
• PEG Ratio: 1.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.41
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.19
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 15.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.46
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.43
• 1Y Price Target: $17.67
• Price Target Upside: 13.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.72
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $396.77M

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $17.00 ▲(8.83% Upside)

The score is driven most by mixed financial quality—strong growth and profitability but elevated/rising leverage and inconsistent cash-flow conversion. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is favorable (low P/E and strong dividend). Earnings-call commentary adds a modest positive tilt from credit/liquidity improvements and growth priorities, balanced by execution and concentration risks and contingent catalysts (Carat monetization and buybacks).

Positive Factors

Improved credit profile

Upgrades to single-A ratings and the closing of a $400M unsecured term loan materially lower Safehold's long-term cost of capital and reduce near‑term refinancing risk. Improved credit access and ~18‑year weighted debt maturity provide durable funding flexibility to support originations and selective buybacks while protecting against market dislocations.

Scale in ground‑lease portfolio

A large, growing portfolio and significant estimated unrealized appreciation create structural advantages: deal sourcing scale, diversified income across asset types, and stronger bargaining power with developers. Persistent scale supports repeat originations, enhances Carat optionality over time, and underpins long‑term fee and yield generation.

Predictable lease economics & yield upside

Long‑dated ground leases with CPI lookbacks, healthy rent coverage (3.4x) and hedging reduce cash yield volatility and lock in recurring income. The structural economic yield plus sizable unrealized Carat appreciation offers durable upside to returns as leases reprice and Carat liquidity improves, strengthening long‑term cash generation.

Negative Factors

Elevated, rising leverage

Substantially higher leverage compresses balance sheet flexibility and heightens sensitivity to rate or valuation moves. Near‑term funding needs materially affect strategic choices (originations, buybacks), and higher debt levels amplify refinancing and covenant risk, making capital deployment more contingent on favorable markets.

Uneven cash conversion and volatile FCF

Inconsistent free cash flow undermines the company’s ability to self‑fund growth, service debt, and execute shareholder returns. Reliance on capital markets or unsecured facilities to smooth timing of fundings increases execution risk and exposes the company to higher funding costs during downturns, reducing resilience.

Origination concentration & execution friction

Heavy concentration of originations in one state raises exposure to localized regulatory, economic, and policy shifts. Geographic and sponsor diversification is slow given state mechanics, which can limit scalable growth and increase downside if California activity weakens or pipelines fail to convert, pressuring future earnings.

Safehold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Safehold Inc. (NYSE: SAFE) is revolutionizing real estate ownership by providing a new and better way for owners to unlock the value of the land beneath their buildings. Through its modern ground lease capital solution, Safehold helps owners of high quality multifamily, office, industrial, hospitality and mixed-use properties in major markets throughout the United States generate higher returns with less risk. The Company, which is taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and is managed by its largest shareholder, iStar Inc., seeks to deliver safe, growing income and long-term capital appreciation to its shareholders.

How the Company Makes Money

Safehold generates revenue primarily through the collection of rent from its ground leases. The company enters into long-term ground lease agreements with property developers and owners, allowing them to utilize the land while Safehold retains ownership. These leases typically span periods of 49 to 99 years, providing a stable and predictable income stream. Additionally, Safehold benefits from the appreciation of land values over time, which enhances the overall value of its portfolio. The company may also engage in partnerships with developers or other real estate firms to expand its footprint and leverage expertise in urban development, further contributing to its revenue growth. The combination of long-term lease agreements and the potential for land value appreciation forms the backbone of Safehold's revenue model.

Safehold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (re-accelerating revenue growth and high margins with ~29–30% net margins in 2024–2025) is tempered by mixed quality: a 2023 net-loss year, rising leverage (debt-to-equity up to ~1.96 by 2025), and weak/uneven cash conversion with volatile free cash flow.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown strongly over time (2020–2022 surge, 2023–2024 slower, then a sharp re-acceleration in 2025). Profitability is generally high with very strong gross and EBITDA margins, and net margins in 2024–2025 around ~29–30%. The key weakness is volatility: 2023 swung to a net loss and materially weaker operating profit versus surrounding years, and operating profit levels have been inconsistent despite rising revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is asset-backed and equity has grown, but leverage is elevated and rising: debt-to-equity increased from ~1.23 (2020) to ~1.96 (2025) alongside higher absolute debt. Returns on equity are modest in profitable years (~4–6%) and turned negative in 2023, indicating profitability has not consistently scaled with the larger capital base. Overall: solid asset base, but higher leverage increases sensitivity to financing and valuation swings.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is uneven. Operating cash flow is positive each year but relatively low versus reported earnings in the latest period (2025 shows weak conversion, with free cash flow far below net income). Free cash flow is volatile, including a large negative outlier in 2021, followed by recovery to positive levels in 2022–2025 and strong growth in 2025 off a smaller base. Strength is the return to positive free cash flow; weakness is the inconsistency and weaker cash conversion most recently.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	385.55M	365.69M	352.58M	270.31M	187.01M
Gross Profit	363.70M	361.46M	347.93M	267.20M	184.35M
EBITDA	332.80M	320.36M	140.41M	285.57M	165.05M
Net Income	114.47M	105.76M	-54.97M	135.42M	73.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.25B	6.90B	6.55B	5.85B	4.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	30.74M	15.58M	28.47M	20.07M	29.62M
Total Debt	4.71B	4.23B	3.97B	3.53B	2.70B
Total Liabilities	4.81B	4.53B	4.25B	3.69B	2.83B
Stockholders Equity	2.41B	2.34B	2.23B	2.14B	1.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	47.81M	37.85M	15.39M	64.85M	-1.22B
Operating Cash Flow	47.81M	37.85M	15.39M	64.85M	26.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-237.18M	-212.37M	-576.57M	-1.15B	-1.29B
Financing Cash Flow	202.98M	144.89M	559.53M	1.09B	1.20B

Safehold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAFE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.75, above the 50-day MA of 14.31, and above the 200-day MA of 14.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SAFE.

Safehold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAFE	70 Outperform	$1.12B	9.80	4.82%	5.13%	1.30%	-6.14%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ESRT	65 Neutral	$1.06B	24.16	―	2.16%	0.45%	-24.85%
AHH	61 Neutral	$493.74M	-79.46	4.09%	9.50%	-39.94%	―
GNL	59 Neutral	$2.10B	-7.94	-12.53%	10.29%	-28.94%	-28.24%
AAT	57 Neutral	$1.15B	20.45	5.29%	7.31%	5.95%	5.06%
GOOD	55 Neutral	$558.03M	81.37	5.53%	11.56%	4.95%	-6.49%

Safehold Corporate Events

Safehold Highlights Valuation Support for Ground Lease Portfolio

Safehold has detailed the status of its Caret Performance Incentive Plan, under which Caret units are granted as performance-based awards linked to the company’s stock price and vesting conditions. As of December 31, 2025, nearly all previously awarded Caret units were fully vested except for grants tied to the March 31, 2027 cliff vesting and a new five-year vesting schedule, with officers and employees holding roughly 14.9% of outstanding Caret units and the company retaining 83.8% ownership overall.

The company has also disclosed that 122,500 Caret units have been sold to third-party investors and that about 78,996 units remain available for future awards under the incentive plan, reinforcing the role of equity-based incentives in aligning stakeholders with long-term performance. In a related step on February 11, 2026, independent valuation firm CBRE, Inc. consented to the use of its name and valuation work in Safehold’s SEC filings concerning the valuation of ground leases, supporting the credibility of the company’s reported unrealized capital appreciation measures.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAFE) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Safehold stock, see the SAFE Stock Forecast page.

Safehold Posts Strong Q4 2025 Results, Enhances Credit Profile

Safehold Inc., a leading creator of modern ground leases and a real estate investment trust focused on high-quality commercial and residential property sectors, reported solid operating performance for the fourth quarter and full year ended Dec. 31, 2025. The company operates across multifamily, office, industrial, hospitality, student housing, life science and mixed-use assets, using ground leases and leasehold financing to help owners improve returns while seeking stable, long-term income for its investors.

On Feb. 11, 2026, Safehold announced fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $97.9 million and full-year 2025 revenue of $385.6 million, with net income attributable to common shareholders of $27.9 million for the quarter and $114.5 million for the year, or $30.1 million and $118.6 million respectively when excluding non-recurring losses. Earnings per share were $0.39 in the fourth quarter and $1.59 for the year, rising to $0.42 and $1.65 excluding these items, while estimated unrealized capital appreciation increased to $9.3 billion.

In 2025, Safehold originated $429 million of new investments, including 17 new ground leases totaling $277 million and four leasehold loans totaling $152 million, bringing its aggregate ground lease portfolio to $7.1 billion and reinforcing its scale in the ground lease market. The company also closed a $400 million five-year unsecured term loan and repaid $227 million of secured debt maturing in 2027, strengthening its capital structure.

Safehold’s credit profile improved as it received a rating upgrade to A- with a stable outlook from S&P, leaving it rated A-/A3/A- by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch, all with stable outlooks, which lowers its cost of capital and supports future deal activity. Management highlighted active customer dialogue, growing momentum in its affordable housing business and the appointment of Michael Trachtenberg as president, indicating that the company sees itself well positioned for 2026 as it seeks to deploy capital and create further value for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAFE) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Safehold stock, see the SAFE Stock Forecast page.

Safehold Amends Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase

On December 5, 2025, Safehold Inc. and its affiliate Safehold GL Holdings LLC amended their RCF Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank and other financial institutions. The amendment aligns the financial covenants with those of a previously announced unsecured term loan, requiring Safehold to maintain specific financial ratios, which could impact its financial stability and borrowing capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAFE) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Safehold stock, see the SAFE Stock Forecast page.

Safehold Appoints Michael Trachtenberg as President

On December 1, 2025, Safehold Inc. announced the appointment of Michael Trachtenberg as President. Trachtenberg, a seasoned real estate professional with over two decades of experience, will work closely with CEO Jay Sugarman to oversee operations and drive the company’s growth. His appointment follows an extensive search process by the Board, highlighting his track record in driving growth and operational excellence. Trachtenberg’s expertise is expected to support Safehold’s strategic priorities and enhance its position in the ground lease market, benefiting shareholders and stakeholders alike.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAFE) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Safehold stock, see the SAFE Stock Forecast page.

Safehold Secures $400M Loan to Boost Liquidity

On November 25, 2025, Safehold Inc. announced the closing of a $400 million unsecured term loan agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and other financial institutions. This loan, which matures on November 15, 2030, with two one-year extension options, was fully drawn to repay existing borrowings and enhance liquidity. The agreement includes an accordion feature to increase the loan amount up to $600 million, subject to conditions. This strategic financial move boosts Safehold’s liquidity to $1.3 billion, allowing the company to unencumber assets and address near-term debt maturities, thereby strengthening its market position and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAFE) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Safehold stock, see the SAFE Stock Forecast page.