Empire State Realty (ESRT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.26B
• Dividend Yield: 1.9%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.79M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 1.77%
• EPS Growth: -8.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 667
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 44
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 168,641,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,536,320
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,791,055
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.74
• 1Y Price Target: $8.46
• Price Target Upside: 15.10% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▲(8.84% Upside)

Empire State Realty's overall score reflects solid financial performance and strong leasing activity, tempered by high leverage and valuation concerns. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, while earnings call insights highlight both strengths in leasing and challenges in the Observatory segment.

Positive Factors

Analyst Recommendation

The analyst's recommendation has upgraded ESRT to Outperform from Peer Perform, indicating a positive outlook.

Leasing Performance

Commercial leasing activity was robust with 379k sf leases signed (+53.4% vs. LTM average) with +10.4% cash leasing spreads.

Observatory Performance

Observatory NOI increased 6.0% y/y with a 1.0% increase in visitors - breaking its two-quarter y/y visitor losing streak.

Negative Factors

Consumer Weakness Impact

About 25% of net operating income comes from the Observatory, which may be impacted by consumer weakness and increased competition.

Guidance Reduction

ESRT cut its FY25 FFOps Guidance by 3.4% to $0.845 with Observatory NOI lowered 7.5%.

Target Price Revision

The target price for Empire State Realty Trust has been lowered from $10.00 to $7.50 due to a revised valuation approach.

Empire State Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) based in New York City, primarily engaged in the ownership, operation, and management of office and retail properties. The company is best known for its iconic flagship asset, the Empire State Building, and its portfolio includes a diverse range of high-quality office and retail spaces located in key urban markets. ESRT focuses on creating long-term value through active property management, strategic acquisitions, and sustainable practices that enhance tenant experiences and operational efficiency.

How the Company Makes Money

Empire State Realty Trust generates revenue primarily through leasing office and retail spaces within its properties. The company earns rental income from long-term leases with tenants, which typically include provisions for rent escalations over time. Additionally, ESRT benefits from ancillary income sources such as parking facilities, advertising, and revenue from retail operations within its properties. The company may also engage in property management services for third-party clients, further diversifying its revenue streams. Significant partnerships with major corporations and organizations for office leases, as well as its iconic status as a landmark, contribute to high occupancy rates and sustained demand, thus enhancing its earnings potential.

Empire State Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Empire State Realty demonstrates stable revenue growth and profitability. However, challenges like negative operating cash flow and moderate leverage levels could impact financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Empire State Realty's income statement exhibits stable revenue growth with a TTM revenue of $766.81M, which is a slight decrease from the previous annual figure. The gross profit margin is healthy at 47.76%, and the net profit margin stands at 7.20%, indicating profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins of 20.00% and 44.42%, respectively, suggest room for improvement in operational efficiency. The revenue growth rate from 2021 to TTM is positive, reflecting a steady upward trend in sales.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.17, reflecting a balanced use of leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is relatively low at 3.09%, indicating limited returns to shareholders. The equity ratio of 43.41% showcases a stable equity base but suggests a reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if interest rates rise.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with a negative operating cash flow of -$20.89M in TTM. However, the company maintains a positive free cash flow of $32.11M, suggesting some capacity to fund operations and investments internally. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58, indicating that a portion of earnings is being converted into cash, though operating cash flow issues warrant attention.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	768.52M	763.15M	739.57M	727.04M	624.09M	609.23M
Gross Profit	465.94M	408.99M	400.56M	405.69M	344.61M	318.12M
EBITDA	356.59M	343.53M	336.62M	343.92M	288.66M	251.05M
Net Income	44.65M	51.64M	53.24M	40.64M	-6.51M	-12.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.08B	4.51B	4.22B	4.16B	4.28B	4.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	136.73M	385.46M	346.62M	264.43M	423.69M	526.71M
Total Debt	2.10B	2.48B	2.27B	2.27B	2.34B	2.17B
Total Liabilities	2.29B	2.73B	2.49B	2.48B	2.60B	2.42B
Stockholders Equity	1.04B	1.03B	985.52M	954.38M	998.13M	1.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	262.70M	260.89M	232.49M	84.91M	117.45M	39.17M
Operating Cash Flow	262.70M	260.89M	232.49M	211.17M	212.49M	182.29M
Investing Cash Flow	-425.03M	-397.12M	-77.34M	-230.89M	-212.74M	-143.12M
Financing Cash Flow	-277.49M	158.58M	-62.87M	-140.24M	-93.05M	257.17M

Empire State Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ESRT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.40, below the 50-day MA of 7.88, and below the 200-day MA of 8.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ESRT.

Empire State Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALEX	75 Outperform	$1.34B	17.26	7.79%	4.92%	5.60%	93.88%
SAFE	74 Outperform	$1.09B	10.49	4.38%	4.63%	1.59%	―
AHH	71 Outperform	$713.51M	76.52	3.55%	9.83%	-25.73%	―
AAT	67 Neutral	$1.19B	16.01	6.26%	6.97%	11.68%	37.31%
ESRT	66 Neutral	$1.26B	31.06	4.36%	1.90%	1.77%	-8.72%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.87B	13.23	-1.00%	7.29%	3.62%	-23.52%
GNL	56 Neutral	$1.65B	―	-11.87%	12.43%	-11.06%	29.36%

Empire State Realty Corporate Events

Empire State Realty Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

On July 23, 2025, Empire State Realty Trust announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reporting a net income of $0.04 per share and core funds from operations of $0.22 per share. The company signed 232,108 rentable square feet of leases and maintained a strong liquidity position with $0.7 billion and no floating rate debt exposure. The Manhattan office portfolio saw a leasing rate increase to 93.8%, and the company completed the acquisition of a retail asset in Williamsburg, Brooklyn. The Empire State Building Observatory generated $24.1 million in net operating income, and the company continued its stock repurchase program, buying back $2.1 million of common stock during the quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (ESRT) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire State Realty stock, see the ESRT Stock Forecast page.

Empire State Realty Appoints George Malkin to Board

Empire State Realty Trust announced on July 14, 2025, that George L. W. Malkin has joined its Board of Directors, effective July 13, 2025. Mr. Malkin, who has a strong background in operational and financial roles, is the son of the company’s CEO and grandson of its Chairman Emeritus. His appointment is expected to bring valuable insights to the board, enhancing the company’s strategic direction and leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (ESRT) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire State Realty stock, see the ESRT Stock Forecast page.

Empire State Realty Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting

On May 15, 2025, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. held its annual shareholders meeting where Class A and Class B common stockholders elected the company’s nominees for director, approved executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis, and ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions reflect the company’s continued commitment to its governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (ESRT) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire State Realty stock, see the ESRT Stock Forecast page.