Empire State Realty (ESRT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.40B
• Dividend Yield: 1.68%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.00M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: 1.41%
• EPS Growth: 3.11%
• Country: US
• Employees: 667
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 167,510,670
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,927,543
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,998,710
• PEG Ratio: 4.22
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.33
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.36
• 1Y Price Target: $9.33
• Price Target Upside: 12.14% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $9.00 ▲(8.17%Upside)

Empire State Realty's overall stock score reflects its stable financial performance and positive earnings call insights, particularly strong leasing activity and a robust balance sheet. However, valuation concerns and cash flow management challenges slightly temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Analyst Recommendation

The analyst's recommendation has upgraded ESRT to Outperform from Peer Perform, indicating a positive outlook.

Financial Performance

Observatory NOI increased 6.0% with a 1.0% increase in visitors - breaking its two-quarter visitor losing streak.

Leasing Activity

Commercial leasing activity was robust with 379k sf leases signed with +10.4% cash leasing spreads.

Negative Factors

Consumer and Market Risk

There are signs of potential risk due to government warnings about US travel, which may affect the Observatory's performance.

Sector Sensitivity

A lower multiple is being ascribed to the stock due to the office sector's sensitivity to economic uncertainty.

Stock Valuation

The target price for Empire State Realty Trust has been lowered from $10.00 to $7.50 due to a revised valuation approach.

Empire State Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, manages, operates, acquires, and repositions office and retail properties in Manhattan and the greater New York metropolitan area. The company's portfolio is highlighted by its ownership of the Empire State Building, one of the world's most famous office buildings and a major tourist attraction. ESRT focuses on providing high-quality office spaces and retail locations, catering to a diverse range of tenants and businesses.

How the Company Makes Money

Empire State Realty Trust generates revenue primarily through leasing office and retail spaces within its properties. The company's revenue model is based on long-term lease agreements with a variety of tenants, including corporate, professional, and retail clients. A significant portion of its income also comes from the Empire State Building's observatory operations, which attract millions of tourists annually, contributing to both ticket sales and related merchandise. Additionally, ESRT benefits from strategic partnerships and marketing initiatives that enhance its properties' visibility and attractiveness, helping drive occupancy rates and rental income.

Empire State Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Empire State Realty demonstrates a stable financial trajectory with consistent revenue growth and profitability. However, challenges in cash flow management and moderate leverage levels could impact financial flexibility. Balancing operational efficiency and debt management will be crucial for sustaining growth and enhancing shareholder value.

Income Statement

Empire State Realty's income statement exhibits stable revenue growth with a TTM revenue of $766.81M, which is a slight decrease from the previous annual figure. The gross profit margin is healthy at 47.76%, and the net profit margin stands at 7.20%, indicating profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins of 20.00% and 44.42%, respectively, suggest room for improvement in operational efficiency. The revenue growth rate from 2021 to TTM is positive, reflecting a steady upward trend in sales.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.17, reflecting a balanced use of leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is relatively low at 3.09%, indicating limited returns to shareholders. The equity ratio of 43.41% showcases a stable equity base but suggests a reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if interest rates rise.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with a negative operating cash flow of -$20.89M in TTM. However, the company maintains a positive free cash flow of $32.11M, suggesting some capacity to fund operations and investments internally. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58, indicating that a portion of earnings is being converted into cash, though operating cash flow issues warrant attention.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	766.81M	767.92M	739.57M	727.04M	624.09M	609.23M
Gross Profit	366.25M	413.76M	400.56M	405.69M	344.61M	318.12M
EBITDA	347.26M	343.53M	336.62M	343.92M	288.66M	251.05M
Net Income	55.20M	51.64M	53.24M	40.64M	-6.51M	-12.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.11B	4.51B	4.22B	4.16B	4.28B	4.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	187.82M	385.46M	346.62M	264.43M	423.69M	526.71M
Total Debt	2.09B	2.48B	2.27B	2.27B	2.34B	2.17B
Total Liabilities	2.33B	2.73B	2.49B	2.48B	2.60B	2.42B
Stockholders Equity	1.79B	1.03B	985.52M	954.38M	998.13M	1.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	115.25M	260.89M	232.49M	84.91M	117.45M	39.17M
Operating Cash Flow	62.25M	260.89M	232.49M	211.17M	212.49M	182.29M
Investing Cash Flow	-367.92M	-397.12M	-77.34M	-230.89M	-212.74M	-143.12M
Financing Cash Flow	-53.09M	158.58M	-62.87M	-140.24M	-93.05M	257.17M

Empire State Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.32
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ESRT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.33, above the 50-day MA of 7.81, and below the 200-day MA of 9.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ESRT.

Empire State Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ESRT	72 Outperform	$1.40B	27.43	5.44%	1.68%	1.41%	3.11%
AAT	72 Outperform	$1.24B	15.26	6.74%	6.73%	12.64%	49.11%
ALEX	69 Neutral	$1.32B	21.36	6.47%	4.95%	4.31%	39.56%
SAFE	69 Neutral	$1.13B	10.61	4.51%	4.51%	1.54%	―
AHH	68 Neutral	$724.63M	125.44	3.05%	7.83%	-12.13%	-14.54%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$7.01B	18.92	-1.36%	6.84%	4.67%	-25.39%
GNL	56 Neutral	$1.73B	―	-13.01%	9.79%	16.69%	39.04%

Empire State Realty Corporate Events

Empire State Realty Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting

On May 15, 2025, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. held its annual shareholders meeting where Class A and Class B common stockholders elected the company’s nominees for director, approved executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis, and ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions reflect the company’s continued commitment to its governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (ESRT) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire State Realty stock, see the ESRT Stock Forecast page.

Empire State Realty Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results

Empire State Realty Trust announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reporting a net income of $0.05 per share and core funds from operations of $0.19 per share, a slight decrease from the previous year. The company signed leases for approximately 231,000 rentable square feet and maintained a strong liquidity position with $0.8 billion available. The Manhattan office portfolio was 93.0% leased, and the total commercial portfolio was 92.5% leased as of March 31, 2025. Despite a decrease in same-store property cash net operating income due to increased expenses and taxes, the company remains optimistic about future occupancy and leasing percentages, expecting improvements by year-end.