Empire State Realty (ESRT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.25B
• Dividend Yield: 1.89%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.22M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.91
• Revenue Growth: 4.36%
• EPS Growth: -8.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 667
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 57
• Industry: REIT - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.04
• Shares Outstanding: 167,510,670
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,306,967
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,216,625
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $8.83
• Price Target Upside: 18.68% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.50 ▲(0.81%Upside)

Empire State Realty's overall stock score is 59, driven by stable financial performance with challenges in cash flow management. The technical analysis suggests bearish momentum, and the valuation appears stretched. Strong leasing performance and strategic initiatives provide some positive outlook but are offset by issues in the Observatory segment and rising expenses.

Positive Factors

Analyst Recommendation

The analyst's recommendation has upgraded ESRT to Outperform from Peer Perform, indicating a positive outlook.

Leasing Activity

Commercial leasing activity was robust with 379k sf leases signed (+53.4% vs. LTM average) with +10.4% cash leasing spreads.

Leasing Performance

Cash re-leasing spreads were strong at +12.1% in ESRT's Manhattan office portfolio.

Negative Factors

Economic Sensitivity

A lower multiple is being ascribed to the stock due to the office sector's sensitivity to economic uncertainty.

Guidance Revision

ESRT cut its FY25 FFOps Guidance by 3.4% to $0.845 with Observatory NOI lowered 7.5%.

Stock Valuation

The target price for Empire State Realty Trust has been lowered from $10.00 to $7.50 due to a revised valuation approach.

Empire State Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (ESRT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns, manages, operates, acquires, and repositions office and retail properties in Manhattan and the greater New York metropolitan area. The company's portfolio is highlighted by its ownership of the Empire State Building, one of the world's most famous office buildings and a major tourist attraction. ESRT focuses on providing high-quality office spaces and retail locations, catering to a diverse range of tenants and businesses.

How the Company Makes Money

Empire State Realty Trust generates revenue primarily through leasing office and retail spaces within its properties. The company's revenue model is based on long-term lease agreements with a variety of tenants, including corporate, professional, and retail clients. A significant portion of its income also comes from the Empire State Building's observatory operations, which attract millions of tourists annually, contributing to both ticket sales and related merchandise. Additionally, ESRT benefits from strategic partnerships and marketing initiatives that enhance its properties' visibility and attractiveness, helping drive occupancy rates and rental income.

Empire State Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Empire State Realty demonstrates stable revenue growth and profitability with a healthy gross profit margin. However, challenges in cash flow management and moderate leverage levels could impact financial flexibility, warranting a moderate score.

Income Statement

Empire State Realty's income statement exhibits stable revenue growth with a TTM revenue of $766.81M, which is a slight decrease from the previous annual figure. The gross profit margin is healthy at 47.76%, and the net profit margin stands at 7.20%, indicating profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins of 20.00% and 44.42%, respectively, suggest room for improvement in operational efficiency. The revenue growth rate from 2021 to TTM is positive, reflecting a steady upward trend in sales.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.17, reflecting a balanced use of leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is relatively low at 3.09%, indicating limited returns to shareholders. The equity ratio of 43.41% showcases a stable equity base but suggests a reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if interest rates rise.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges with a negative operating cash flow of -$20.89M in TTM. However, the company maintains a positive free cash flow of $32.11M, suggesting some capacity to fund operations and investments internally. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58, indicating that a portion of earnings is being converted into cash, though operating cash flow issues warrant attention.

Breakdown
Income Statement
Total Revenue
Gross Profit
EBITDA
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Assets
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
Total Debt
Total Liabilities
Stockholders Equity
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow
Investing Cash Flow
Financing Cash Flow

Empire State Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.44
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ESRT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.96, below the 50-day MA of 7.99, and below the 200-day MA of 8.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ESRT.

Empire State Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALEX	75 Outperform	$1.33B	17.06	7.79%	4.91%	5.60%	93.88%
AAT	70 Outperform	$1.22B	15.04	6.74%	6.77%	12.64%	49.11%
AHH	68 Neutral	$713.48M	123.51	3.05%	9.93%	-12.13%	-14.54%
Sector *	66 Neutral	£955.68M	13.95	2.04%	110.45%	11.04%	38.13%
SAFE	62 Neutral	$1.06B	9.96	4.51%	4.92%	1.54%	―
ESRT	59 Neutral	$1.25B	32.83	5.44%	1.89%	4.36%	-8.72%
GNL	57 Neutral	$1.57B	―	-13.01%	13.25%	16.69%	39.04%

Empire State Realty Corporate Events

Empire State Realty Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

On July 23, 2025, Empire State Realty Trust announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, reporting a net income of $0.04 per share and core funds from operations of $0.22 per share. The company signed 232,108 rentable square feet of leases and maintained a strong liquidity position with $0.7 billion and no floating rate debt exposure. The Manhattan office portfolio saw a leasing rate increase to 93.8%, and the company completed the acquisition of a retail asset in Williamsburg, Brooklyn. The Empire State Building Observatory generated $24.1 million in net operating income, and the company continued its stock repurchase program, buying back $2.1 million of common stock during the quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (ESRT) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire State Realty stock, see the ESRT Stock Forecast page.

Empire State Realty Appoints George Malkin to Board

Empire State Realty Trust announced on July 14, 2025, that George L. W. Malkin has joined its Board of Directors, effective July 13, 2025. Mr. Malkin, who has a strong background in operational and financial roles, is the son of the company’s CEO and grandson of its Chairman Emeritus. His appointment is expected to bring valuable insights to the board, enhancing the company’s strategic direction and leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (ESRT) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire State Realty stock, see the ESRT Stock Forecast page.

Empire State Realty Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting

On May 15, 2025, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. held its annual shareholders meeting where Class A and Class B common stockholders elected the company’s nominees for director, approved executive compensation on a non-binding advisory basis, and ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. These decisions reflect the company’s continued commitment to its governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (ESRT) stock is a Sell with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Empire State Realty stock, see the ESRT Stock Forecast page.

Empire State Realty Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results

Empire State Realty Trust announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, reporting a net income of $0.05 per share and core funds from operations of $0.19 per share, a slight decrease from the previous year. The company signed leases for approximately 231,000 rentable square feet and maintained a strong liquidity position with $0.8 billion available. The Manhattan office portfolio was 93.0% leased, and the total commercial portfolio was 92.5% leased as of March 31, 2025. Despite a decrease in same-store property cash net operating income due to increased expenses and taxes, the company remains optimistic about future occupancy and leasing percentages, expecting improvements by year-end.