Empire State Realty Trust Inc (ESRT)
NYSE:ESRT
Top Page
Empire State Realty
(NYSE:ESRT)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
â–¼(-24.14% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/02/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (notably cash flow strength) and a generally positive earnings-call outlook with clear operational momentum. Offsetting these positives are weak technicals (downtrend across moving averages with negative MACD) and balance-sheet/leverage and margin-quality concerns, while valuation looks only moderate given the P/E and modest yield.
Positive Factors
Strong operating cash flow
Sustained, materially larger operating cash flow and robust free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, dividends and debt service. This cash-generation profile gives the REIT flexibility to invest in lease-up, fund observatory operations, and withstand cyclical office demand shocks.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage materially above the firm's stated comfort range limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk if property cash flows soften. Higher interest sensitivity constrains capital allocation and increases vulnerability to rising rates or prolonged leasing slowdowns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating cash flow
Sustained, materially larger operating cash flow and robust free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, dividends and debt service. This cash-generation profile gives the REIT flexibility to invest in lease-up, fund observatory operations, and withstand cyclical office demand shocks.
Read all positive factors
Empire State Realty (ESRT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$875.04M
Dividend Yield2.16%
Average Volume (3M)1.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.1
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth0.45%
EPS Growth-24.85%
CountryUS
Employees667
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.12
Shares Outstanding170,269,290
10 Day Avg. Volume1,750,532
30 Day Avg. Volume1,735,144
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.23
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)1.43
P/FCF Ratio21.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit228.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.80
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.83Price Target Upside-5.86% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)$799.59M
Empire State Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: ESRT), a leading real estate investment trust (REIT), owns, manages, operates, acquires and repositions office and retail properties in Manhattan and the greater New York metropolitan area, including the Empi...
How the Company Makes Money
ESRT primarily makes money through recurring real estate rental income and, secondarily, through observatory-related revenues. The company’s key revenue streams include: (1) Office and retail leasing revenue: ESRT leases office space and retail sp...
Empire State Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reflects a broadly positive operational and strategic outlook driven by sustained leasing momentum, occupancy gains, successful portfolio transformation into a 100% New York City — higher-quality — footprint, strong observatory cash flows, and proactive balance sheet management. Near-term headwinds include an identifiable FDIC-related downtime hit to 2026 FFO and same-store NOI, some cost pressure from taxes and cleaning labor, modestly elevated leverage (6.3x net debt/EBITDA), and weaker international tourism impacting observation deck visitation and license fees. Management provided clear mitigation plans (lease-up at 130 Mercer, capital recycling, cost reductions and ample liquidity) and conservative 2026 guidance that incorporates these factors.Positive Updates
Strong Leasing Momentum and Occupancy Gains
Leased nearly 460,000 sq ft in Q4 and approximately 1.0 million sq ft for full year 2025; overall occupancy grew to 90.3% (up 170 bps YoY) and the office portfolio was 93.5% leased with 12 consecutive quarters above 90%.
Negative Updates
Near-Term FDIC Vacancy Impact on 2026 Results
FDIC vacated 119,000 sq ft subsequent to year-end; management estimates this downtime reduces 2026 core FFO by approximately $0.03 and lowers same-store property NOI growth by ~270 basis points (cash rent commencement expected in H2 2027).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Leasing Momentum and Occupancy Gains
Leased nearly 460,000 sq ft in Q4 and approximately 1.0 million sq ft for full year 2025; overall occupancy grew to 90.3% (up 170 bps YoY) and the office portfolio was 93.5% leased with 12 consecutive quarters above 90%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ESRT guided to 2026 core FFO of $0.85–$0.89 per diluted share and expects 2026 FFO and same-store property cash NOI to be roughly consistent with 2025, with same-store cash NOI growth of -1.5% to +2% (the midpoint would be ~3% excluding a ~119,000 sq ft FDIC downtime that reduces 2026 core FFO by ~$0.03 and drags same-store NOI growth down ~270 bps); commercial occupancy is expected to finish 2026 at 90%–92% (vs. 90.3% YE‑2025 and an office portfolio 93.5% leased), property operating expenses and real estate taxes are forecast to rise ~2%–4% (partially offset by higher tenant reimbursements), G&A is guided to $69M–$71M (vs. ~$73M in 2025) with a targeted 5%–10% run‑rate reduction by YE‑2026 (savings in place by Q3), and the Observatory is forecast to generate NOI of ~$87M–$92M with expenses of about $10M per quarter (including a ~$2M net decline and timing shift in gift‑shop license fee revenue); cash rent on the FDIC backfill is expected to commence in H2 2027.Empire State Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 768.27M | 763.15M | 739.57M | 707.01M | 607.86M |
| Gross Profit | 13.73M | 408.99M | 400.56M | 385.65M | 328.38M |
| EBITDA | 374.08M | 343.53M | 378.52M | 382.86M | 281.43M |
| Net Income | 47.60M | 51.64M | 53.24M | 40.64M | -6.51M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.47B | 4.51B | 4.22B | 4.16B | 4.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 166.51M | 385.46M | 346.62M | 264.43M | 423.69M |
| Total Debt | 2.44B | 2.48B | 2.27B | 2.27B | 2.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.65B | 2.73B | 2.49B | 2.48B | 2.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.06B | 1.03B | 985.52M | 954.38M | 998.13M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 50.55M | 260.89M | 232.49M | 84.91M | 117.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 249.05M | 260.89M | 232.49M | 211.17M | 212.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -550.01M | -397.12M | -77.34M | -230.89M | -212.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 38.17M | 158.58M | -62.87M | -140.24M | -93.05M |
Empire State Realty Technical Analysis
Negative
7.25
Price Trends
5.77
Negative
6.21
Negative
6.87
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
41.69
Neutral
60.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ESRT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.13, above the 50-day MA of 5.77, and above the 200-day MA of 6.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ESRT.
Empire State Realty Risk Analysis
Empire State Realty disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Empire State Realty reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Empire State Realty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $484.69M | 16.62 | 8.41% | 9.03% | 7.71% | -5.37% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
61 Neutral | $875.04M | 23.09 | 4.56% | 2.16% | 0.45% | -24.85% | |
56 Neutral | $1.16B | 16.06 | 5.29% | 7.31% | 5.95% | 5.06% | |
54 Neutral | $571.68M | 26.11 | 8.70% | 11.56% | 4.95% | -6.49% | |
54 Neutral | $2.02B | -8.52 | -12.68% | 10.29% | -28.94% | -28.24% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ESRT
Empire State Realty
5.11
-1.54
-23.20%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
11.72
-0.23
-1.89%
OLP
One Liberty Properties
22.22
0.71
3.32%
AAT
American Assets
18.94
2.79
17.28%
GNL
Global Net Lease
9.45
3.27
53.01%
Empire State Realty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Empire State Realty Reports Q4 2025 Results, Highlights NYC Focus
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Empire State Realty Trust reported fourth-quarter 2025 net income of $0.12 per fully diluted share and full-year 2025 net income of $0.25, with Core FFO at $0.23 for the quarter and $0.87 for the year, down from 2024, while s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.