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Empire State Realty
(NYSE:ESRT)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
â–²(6.76% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
ESRT scores moderately due to solid cash generation and generally strong property-level operations (leasing and multifamily), but is held back by high leverage and uneven profitability. The latest earnings call adds a key risk: a sharp Observation Deck demand/NOI decline that forced lower guidance and increases near-term uncertainty. Technically, the stock is improving versus short- and mid-term averages but remains below the 200-day trend, and valuation offers only modest yield support relative to the earnings multiple.
Positive Factors
Office leasing momentum
Sustained high leasing activity, a 94.9% portfolio lease rate and 17.8% positive mark-to-market spreads indicate durable demand and pricing power in core Manhattan assets. Long average lease terms (12 years) reduce rollover risk and support multi-quarter cash flows and rent growth predictability.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Elevated leverage (debt-to-equity ~2.2–2.4 and ~6.6x net debt/TTM EBITDA) constrains financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to interest-rate moves or EBITDA declines. High leverage limits capacity for opportunistic investments and raises refinancing and covenant risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Office leasing momentum
Sustained high leasing activity, a 94.9% portfolio lease rate and 17.8% positive mark-to-market spreads indicate durable demand and pricing power in core Manhattan assets. Long average lease terms (12 years) reduce rollover risk and support multi-quarter cash flows and rent growth predictability.
Read all positive factors
Empire State Realty Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Office & Retail Total Rentable Square Footage
Total rentable square feet in the office and retail portfolio, conveying the company’s operating scale and exposure to commercial real estate trends. Useful for assessing concentration risks, revenue per square foot, and the magnitude of leasing or renovation needs when market conditions shift.
Total rentable square feet in the office and retail portfolio, conveying the company’s operating scale and exposure to commercial real estate trends. Useful for assessing concentration risks, revenue per square foot, and the magnitude of leasing or renovation needs when market conditions shift.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyEmpire State Realty (ESRT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.00B
Dividend Yield2.8%
Average Volume (3M)1.73M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.2
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth2.04%
EPS Growth-91.73%
CountryUS
Employees642
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding171,460,310
10 Day Avg. Volume2,027,511
30 Day Avg. Volume1,731,871
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.04
Price to Sales (P/S)1.43
P/FCF Ratio21.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit>-0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.75Price Target Upside2.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)$762.59M
Empire State Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. (NYSE: ESRT) functions as a leading real estate investment trust (REIT), focused on the acquisition, ownership, management, operation, and revitalization of commercial office and retail assets across Manhattan and t...
How the Company Makes Money
ESRT generates revenue primarily from (1) rental income and related recoveries from its commercial real estate portfolio and (2) admission and related revenues from the Empire State Building Observatory. Commercial real estate revenue is driven by...
Empire State Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operational performance across ESRT's core property portfolio: robust office leasing (382k sq ft signed, 94.9% leased), sustained pricing power (17.8% mark-to-market spreads), healthy multifamily rent growth (+8%) and active capital recycling (sale of 250 West 57th, strategic land acquisitions). These positives improved core FAD and support long-term cash flow objectives. Offsetting these strengths, the Empire State Building Observation Deck experienced a significant and persistent decline in visitation and NOI (visitation -28.5% YoY; NOI down ~48.6% YoY), driven largely by a collapse in pass-program/international budget traveler demand (pass visitors down ~45% YTD) and changes in distribution channels. Management responded with a conservative FY assumption for Observation Deck NOI ($55M) that reduced core FFO guidance by ~$0.13 and emphasized remediation plans (marketing, AI/search changes) but acknowledged limited short-term visibility. On balance, portfolio fundamentals and capital actions provide a constructive backdrop and appear to outweigh the temporary, albeit material, Observation Deck weakness.Positive Updates
Strong Office Leasing Momentum
Signed 382,000 sq ft in Q2, including over 250,000 sq ft of new leases (highest quarterly new-lease volume since Q4 2021). Portfolio lease rate rose to 94.9% (from 93.8% in Q1 on a comparable basis, excluding 250 West 57th). Achieved 20th consecutive quarter of positive mark-to-market spreads in Manhattan office with a 17.8% spread in Q2. Average new-lease duration was 12 years (including a 16-year, 101,000 sq ft lease with United Talent Agency).
Negative Updates
Observation Deck Visitation and NOI Decline
Empire State Building Observation Deck visitation declined ~28.5% year-over-year in Q2. Observation Deck Q2 NOI fell to approximately $12.4 million from $24.1 million in the prior-year period (a decline of roughly 48.6% YoY). Management modeled a conservative $55 million of Observation Deck NOI for full-year 2026 assuming no visitation improvement, which reduced 2026 core FFO by approximately $0.13.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Office Leasing Momentum
Signed 382,000 sq ft in Q2, including over 250,000 sq ft of new leases (highest quarterly new-lease volume since Q4 2021). Portfolio lease rate rose to 94.9% (from 93.8% in Q1 on a comparable basis, excluding 250 West 57th). Achieved 20th consecutive quarter of positive mark-to-market spreads in Manhattan office with a 17.8% spread in Q2. Average new-lease duration was 12 years (including a 16-year, 101,000 sq ft lease with United Talent Agency).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance with a core FFO range of $0.75–$0.79 (Q2 core FFO $0.21), reflecting a $0.13 reduction from prior guidance based on an assumed $55.0 million of full‑year NOI from the Empire State Building observation deck (Q2 OBS NOI $12.4M vs $24.1M LY; Q2 OBS revenue $24.2M, expenses $11.8M; visitation down ~28.5% Y/Y; revenue per capita +1.6% ex gift shop), while maintaining year‑end commercial occupancy guidance of 90%–92% and same‑store property cash NOI growth guidance of -1.5% to +2% (includes a 270 bps FDIC downtime impact); Q2 same‑store property cash NOI was +3.3% ex lease termination fees (–3.2% adjusted), Q2 core FAD was ≈$16.2M (vs $11.9M LY) aided by ≈$14M of FAD CapEx savings, and management expects G&A to decline to ≈$17M per quarter in H2; other metrics: Q2 leasing 382,000 sq ft (>250,000 sq ft new), portfolio lease rate 94.9% (from 93.8%), Manhattan mark‑to‑market spread 17.8% (20th consecutive positive quarter), average new lease term 12 years, multifamily net rents +8% with ~98% occupancy, and leverage ≈6.6x net debt to TTM adjusted EBITDA (plus a $245M delayed‑draw term loan maturing 2032 and recent transactions including the $275M sale of 250 W 57th and $110M aggregate land purchases).Empire State Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 778.07M | 768.27M | 763.15M | 739.57M | 707.01M | 607.86M |
| Gross Profit | -80.45M | 13.73M | 408.99M | 400.56M | 385.65M | 328.38M |
| EBITDA | 362.85M | 374.08M | 377.57M | 378.52M | 382.86M | 281.43M |
| Net Income | 39.62M | 47.60M | 51.64M | 53.24M | 40.64M | -6.51M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.41B | 4.47B | 4.51B | 4.22B | 4.16B | 4.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 68.82M | 166.51M | 385.46M | 346.62M | 264.43M | 423.69M |
| Total Debt | 2.35B | 2.44B | 2.48B | 2.27B | 2.27B | 2.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.58B | 2.65B | 2.73B | 2.49B | 2.48B | 2.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.06B | 1.06B | 1.03B | 985.52M | 954.38M | 998.13M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 60.20M | 50.55M | 260.89M | 232.49M | 84.91M | 117.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 234.82M | 249.05M | 260.89M | 232.49M | 211.17M | 212.49M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -743.11M | -550.01M | -397.12M | -77.34M | -230.89M | -212.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 206.53M | 38.17M | 158.58M | -62.87M | -140.24M | -93.05M |
Empire State Realty Technical Analysis
Positive
5.62
Price Trends
5.48
Positive
5.39
Positive
6.03
Negative
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
56.45
Neutral
33.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ESRT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.58, above the 50-day MA of 5.48, and below the 200-day MA of 6.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ESRT.
Empire State Realty Risk Analysis
Empire State Realty disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Empire State Realty reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Empire State Realty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $542.21M | 22.01 | 8.11% | 7.16% | 10.12% | -7.92% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $627.29M | 28.63 | 9.74% | 8.49% | 9.64% | -38.93% | |
59 Neutral | $1.00B | 26.22 | 0.50% | 2.49% | 2.04% | -91.73% | |
59 Neutral | $1.46B | 82.57 | 1.79% | 5.60% | -11.57% | -75.67% | |
51 Neutral | $1.88B | -22.62 | -2.44% | 8.56% | -35.44% | 50.75% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ESRT
Empire State Realty
5.00
-2.08
-29.36%
GOOD
Gladstone Commercial
12.52
0.63
5.30%
OLP
One Liberty Properties
24.37
3.73
18.05%
AAT
American Assets
24.03
6.22
34.89%
GNL
Global Net Lease
8.80
2.39
37.37%
Empire State Realty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Empire State Realty Trust Reports Q2 2026 Results
Negative
Jul 29, 2026
On July 29, 2026, Empire State Realty Trust reported a second-quarter 2026 net loss of $0.15 per fully diluted share, driven by a $166.1 million non-cash goodwill impairment at its Observatory unit, partly offset by a $124.6 million gain on the sa...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Empire State Realty Amends Credit Agreement to Boost Liquidity
Positive
Jul 18, 2026
On July 17, 2026, Empire State Realty OP, L.P. and Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. entered into a first amendment to their amended and restated credit agreement with a syndicate led by Wells Fargo Bank. The amended agreement establishes a term and...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Empire State Realty Highlights Investor Presentation at REITweek
Neutral
Jun 2, 2026
On June 2, 2026, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. posted a new investor presentation on its website, which it plans to use in meetings with investors and analysts during the Nareit REITweek 2026 Investor Conference. The materials emphasize the comp...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Empire State Realty Shareholders Back Governance and Incentive Plan
Positive
May 19, 2026
At its annual shareholders meeting held on May 14, 2026, Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. reported that holders of its Class A and Class B common stock voted together to elect all nominated directors and endorsed, on an advisory basis, the compensa...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.