RXO, Inc. (RXO)
NYSE:RXO
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RXO, Inc.
(NYSE:RXO)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
▲(12.30% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large TTM revenue decline, ongoing net losses and negative free cash flow), partially offset by strong technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD) and a more optimistic near-term outlook from guidance calling for a material Q2 EBITDA step-up. Valuation remains constrained by the negative P/E, while corporate actions modestly improve financial flexibility.
Positive Factors
Customer Scale & Stickiness
A large, long-tenured enterprise customer base creates durable revenue stability and cross-sell opportunities. Multi-year relationships lower acquisition costs, support predictable managed-transport fees, and provide resilience versus spot volatility, aiding multi-quarter recovery efforts.
Negative Factors
Profitability Deterioration
A large TTM revenue decline and persistent net losses indicate weakened pricing power and reduced scale leverage. Sustained top-line erosion undermines gross profit conversion and ROE, making multi-quarter margin recovery dependent on durable volume and rate improvements rather than short-term seasonal moves.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Customer Scale & Stickiness
A large, long-tenured enterprise customer base creates durable revenue stability and cross-sell opportunities. Multi-year relationships lower acquisition costs, support predictable managed-transport fees, and provide resilience versus spot volatility, aiding multi-quarter recovery efforts.
Read all positive factors
RXO, Inc. (RXO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.31B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.94
Revenue Growth13.10%
EPS Growth71.44%
CountryUS
Employees7,540
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.62
Shares Outstanding164,920,320
10 Day Avg. Volume1,893,410
30 Day Avg. Volume1,794,378
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.29
Price to Book (P/B)1.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio-266.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.74
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda473.89
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.46Price Target Upside9.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.19B
RXO, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
RXO provides truckload freight transportation brokerage in the United States. The company, through a proprietary digital freight marketplace, offers access to truckload capacity and complementary brokered services of managed transportation, last m...
How the Company Makes Money
RXO makes money mainly by acting as an intermediary in the truckload freight market. For a typical shipment, RXO charges a shipper a contracted or market-based price and separately pays a third-party carrier to haul the load; the difference betwee...
RXO, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear operational momentum (spot mix gains, higher revenue per load, managed transportation wins, rapid pipeline growth, and early AI-driven productivity/margin improvements) and an optimistic forward outlook, including raised expectations for full-year contract rate increases (now expected high single digits) and a materially improved Q2 EBITDA guide. However, near-term financials remain pressured by Q1 volume declines, weather-related impacts, negative free cash flow, elevated net leverage and margin headwinds from fuel and cost of transportation. Overall, executives emphasized being in the early innings of a supply-driven recovery and highlighted structural advantages (scale, technology, carrier vetting) that support a positive trajectory.Positive Updates
Revenue and Profitability Drivers
Total revenue of $1.4 billion in Q1 with gross margin of 14.2%. Brokerage revenue was $1.1 billion (74% of total), up 3% year-over-year, driven by higher freight rates, longer truckload length of haul and higher fuel prices.
Negative Updates
Low Adjusted EBITDA and Weather Impact
Adjusted EBITDA was only $6 million in Q1 (at the low end of guidance); severe weather negatively impacted results by approximately $3 million, mostly in last mile.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Profitability Drivers
Total revenue of $1.4 billion in Q1 with gross margin of 14.2%. Brokerage revenue was $1.1 billion (74% of total), up 3% year-over-year, driven by higher freight rates, longer truckload length of haul and higher fuel prices.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
RXO guided second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $27 million to $37 million (midpoint $32M), up materially from first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $6 million (management noted roughly a 5–6x increase to Q2 midpoint), and said 2026 modeling assumptions remain unchanged; they expect brokerage volume to be about flat year‑over‑year in Q2 with truckload volume roughly flat (resuming outperformance versus the market by mid‑year) and LTL approximately flat, last‑mile stops down a low single‑digit percent, while truckload gross profit per load should improve again in Q2 after a 9% sequential increase in Q1 (April GP/load ~10% higher vs. Q1) and truckload revenue per load was +8% YoY in Q1 (April +12% YoY ex‑fuel/length); spot mix — which rose 500 bps sequentially and 600 bps YoY in Q1 (April spot mix ~35%) — is expected to increase further in Q2, and full‑year 2026 contract rates are now anticipated to rise high single digits (vs. prior low‑to‑mid single digits), all supporting management’s stated path to the high end of the Q2 EBITDA range.RXO, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.73B | 5.74B | 4.55B | 3.93B | 4.80B | 4.69B |
| Gross Profit | 981.00M | 1.01B | 783.00M | 725.00M | 860.00M | 735.00M |
| EBITDA | 9.00M | 109.00M | 117.00M | 134.00M | 209.00M | 272.00M |
| Net Income | -105.00M | -100.00M | -290.00M | 4.00M | 92.00M | 150.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.27B | 3.28B | 3.41B | 1.82B | 2.03B | 2.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.00M | 18.00M | 35.00M | 5.00M | 98.00M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 699.00M | 861.00M | 664.00M | 558.00M | 617.00M | 228.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.76B | 1.74B | 1.80B | 1.23B | 1.44B | 998.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51B | 1.54B | 1.61B | 594.00M | 587.00M | 1.07B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -15.00M | -8.00M | -57.00M | 25.00M | 253.00M | 116.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 46.00M | 51.00M | -12.00M | 89.00M | 310.00M | 155.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -63.00M | -71.00M | -1.06B | -66.00M | -56.00M | -38.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 22.00M | 1.00M | 1.11B | -117.00M | -183.00M | -158.00M |
RXO, Inc. Technical Analysis
Positive
18.70
Price Trends
14.94
Positive
14.58
Positive
15.24
Positive
Market Momentum
0.87
Negative
77.27
Negative
85.69
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RXO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.30, above the 50-day MA of 14.94, and above the 200-day MA of 15.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.27 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RXO.
RXO, Inc. Risk Analysis
RXO, Inc. disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. RXO, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
RXO, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $5.07B | 56.56 | 3.24% | 1.40% | 5.54% | -21.38% | |
60 Neutral | $1.21B | 193.61 | 1.89% | 2.07% | -7.81% | -33.01% | |
60 Neutral | $2.51B | -529.70 | 4.30% | 0.62% | -1.65% | -67.84% | |
59 Neutral | $3.31B | -17.17 | -6.75% | ― | 13.10% | 71.44% | |
54 Neutral | $2.05B | -103.41 | -0.62% | 1.84% | 3.28% | -154.33% | |
48 Neutral | $320.94M | -40.29 | -18.94% | 2.76% | -11.11% | -231.01% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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RXO, Inc. Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
RXO Stockholders Back Board, Executive Pay and Incentive Plan
Positive
May 13, 2026
RXO, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 12, 2026, where shareholders elected eight directors, including CEO Drew Wilkerson, to serve terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting. Investors also approved, on an advisory basis, th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
RXO Reports Q1 2026 Results Amid Early Freight Recovery
Negative
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, RXO reported first‑quarter 2026 results showing flat revenue year over year at $1.4 billion, but a wider GAAP net loss of $36 million and adjusted EBITDA falling to $6 million, as gross margin contracted to 14.2%. Brokerage v...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
RXO Refinances Debt and Redeems 2027 Notes
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, RXO, Inc. completed the previously announced redemption of all its outstanding 7.500% notes due 2027, using a portion of the net proceeds from a new notes offering. The notes were redeemed at 101.875% of their principal amoun...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.