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RXO, Inc. (RXO)
NYSE:RXO
US Market

RXO, Inc. (RXO) AI Stock Analysis

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RXO

RXO, Inc.

(NYSE:RXO)

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Neutral 46 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(4.45% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
The score is primarily constrained by deteriorating financial performance—recent net losses and negative free cash flow outweigh a comparatively manageable balance sheet. Technicals are mildly supportive (positive MACD; price above key shorter-term averages), but valuation remains challenged by negative earnings. The latest earnings call was neutral: near-term guidance is weak, partially offset by cost reductions, pipeline strength, and financing actions that could support a recovery if conditions improve.
Positive Factors
Brokerage late-stage sales pipeline
A brokerage pipeline >50% YoY composed of enterprise and long-tenured customers indicates durable, contractable revenue potential. If converted, this should drive truckload volume recovery and utilization gains, improving gross spreads and leveraging fixed selling costs to boost margins over coming quarters.
LTL and complementary services growth
Strong LTL growth and material complementary services mix diversify revenue beyond cyclical truckload brokerage. Higher-margin, recurring managed and last-mile contracts reduce reliance on volatile spot truckload markets and improve margin stability and lifetime customer value over multi-quarter horizons.
Sustained cost reductions & productivity gains
Meaningful, executed cost-outs (> $155M) and productivity improvements materially lower the structural cost base. With automation and headcount efficiencies, the company can restore operating leverage as volumes normalize, supporting durable margin expansion and higher free cash flow conversion when demand recovers.
Negative Factors
Deteriorated profitability and cash flow
Recent net losses and a reversal to negative operating and free cash flow weaken the firm's ability to self-fund operations and investments. Persistent losses increase reliance on external financing, constrain optionality for strategic initiatives, and raise execution risk if volumes or margins do not sustainably recover.
High truckload concentration and volume weakness
With truckload making up a large share of brokerage volumes, steep truckload declines create outsized earnings volatility. This concentration means market cyclicality and supply-demand shifts translate directly to revenue and gross profit swings, complicating margin recovery and medium-term forecasting.
Regulatory-driven capacity exits and rising buy rates
Regulatory enforcement and resulting carrier exits tighten available capacity and push purchased-transport costs higher. Elevated tender rejections and higher buy rates create structural margin pressure for brokers reliant on third-party carriers, increasing cost volatility and compressing durable profitability until market balance shifts.

RXO, Inc. (RXO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

RXO, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRXO provides truckload freight transportation brokerage in the United States. The company, through a proprietary digital freight marketplace, offers access to truckload capacity and complementary brokered services of managed transportation, last mile, and freight forwarding. The company is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.
How the Company Makes MoneyRXO generates revenue primarily through its freight brokerage services, which connect shippers with carriers to facilitate the transportation of goods. The company earns money by charging a service fee or commission on each shipment, which is typically a percentage of the total freight cost. Additionally, RXO may generate revenue from value-added services such as warehousing, inventory management, and supply chain consulting. Key partnerships with carriers and technology providers enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency, further contributing to its earnings. The company also capitalizes on market demand by utilizing its extensive network to optimize shipping routes and freight capacity, thereby maximizing profitability.

RXO, Inc. Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced/Neutral. The company is facing near-term profitability pressure driven by a sharp, supply-side tightening and rising purchase transportation costs that compressed brokerage margins and produced weak Q4 results and modest Q1 guidance. Offsetting these headwinds are several durable, strategic positives: a late-stage brokerage pipeline up >50% YoY, strong LTL growth (31% YoY), meaningful cost reductions (> $155M removed since spin), solid full-year free cash flow conversion (43%), a right-sized ABL that lowers liquidity costs, and demonstrable benefits from AI and tech investments. Management expects truckload outperformance to resume by mid-2026, positioning the company for recovery if demand inflects. Given the material near-term challenges balanced against significant strategic and structural improvements, the call tone and data support a neutral sentiment.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong late-stage brokerage sales pipeline
Late-stage brokerage pipeline grew >50% year-over-year, composed of high-quality new and long-tenured enterprise customers; management expects this pipeline to drive truckload volume outperformance as early as mid-2026 with many bids implemented throughout Q2.
LTL and complementary services momentum
LTL volume grew 31% year-over-year in Q4 (fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth); last-mile revenue up 3% YoY and last-mile stops grew 3% YoY; complementary services revenue of $431M was flat year-over-year and represented 28% of total revenue.
Material cost reductions and productivity gains
Since the spin, cost-to-serve decreased >20% and the company has taken out >$155M in costs; broker headcount declined mid-teens percent YoY and overall productivity improved ~19% over the last twelve months.
Strong full-year cash conversion and disciplined capex
Full-year 2025 adjusted free cash flow conversion was 43% with adjusted free cash flow of $47M; Net CapEx for 2025 was $57M (below prior outlook of $65–75M); management targets long-term adjusted FCF conversion of 40–60%.
New asset-based lending facility improves flexibility and lowers cost
Closed a $450M asset-based lending facility replacing a $600M revolver; structure reduces unused commitment fees (~$400k annually) and yields ~35 bps favorable interest cost at current utilization, plus a $200M accordion feature.
Progress and tangible results from AI and technology investments
Invests >$100M annually in technology; AI initiatives produced measurable outcomes in Q4 including a 24% increase in digital bids per carrier, thousands of automated tracking updates, new AI spot quote agent, and expanded pricing/pricing automation — supporting margin, productivity and service pillars.
Negative Updates
Q4 profitability compression
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $17M with adjusted EBITDA margin of 1.2%; adjusted loss per share was $0.70; brokerage gross margin compressed to 11.9%, slightly below outlook and down 160 bps sequentially and 130 bps year-over-year.
Significant brokerage revenue and truckload weakness
Brokerage revenue declined to $1.1B, down 14% year-over-year and representing 72% of total revenue; overall brokerage volume fell 4% YoY with truckload volume down 12% YoY (truckload = 74% of brokerage volume).
Sharp spike in purchase transportation costs and margin squeeze
Industry buy rates increased ~15% month-over-month in December, driving truckload gross profit per load to fall ~10% from November to December and leaving December truckload gross profit per load ~30% below the five-year average (ex-COVID highs).
Near-term outlook and guidance reflect continued pressure
Q1 2026 guidance expects adjusted EBITDA of $5M–$12M and brokerage gross margin of 11%–13%; company models total brokerage volume down 5%–10% YoY for Q1 and expects continued soft demand and elevated purchase transportation costs in the near term.
Last-mile and managed transportation headwinds
Complementary services gross margin declined to 20.2% (down 110 bps sequentially and 90 bps YoY) driven by weakening last-mile demand and fixed hub costs; managed transportation revenue was $133M in Q4, down 6% YoY; big-and-bulky weakness persisted into Q4.
Regulatory-driven capacity exits increasing short-term disruption
Enforcement actions tied to nondomiciled CDL and English proficiency led to industry capacity exits, higher tender rejections (topped >13% in early 2026), and supply-side tightness that pressured contractual margins despite soft demand.
Restructuring and impairment charges; modest liquidity level
Recorded a $12M non-cash goodwill impairment related to managed transportation express restructuring; restructuring, transaction and integration expenses are expected to be $25M–$30M (with ~$30M–$35M associated cash outflow), and quarter-end cash was $17M.
Company Guidance
RXO’s guidance for Q1 2026 calls for adjusted EBITDA of $5–$12 million, brokerage gross margin of 11–13%, and total brokerage volume down roughly 5–10% year‑over‑year (truckload stabilizing), with LTL expected to grow mid‑single‑digits and last‑mile stops down mid‑single‑digits; the outlook assumes continued elevated purchase transportation costs and tight market conditions (tender rejections >13% in January, industry buy rates up ~15% month‑over‑month in December). For full‑year 2026 modeling the company expects CapEx of $50–$55M, depreciation $65–$75M, amortization $40–$45M, stock‑based compensation $25–$35M, net interest expense $32–$36M, cash tax outflows $6–$8M, restructuring/transaction/integration expenses $25–$30M (associated cash outflows $30–$35M, ~1/3 relating to prior periods), and ~170M fully diluted shares. RXO also finalized a $450M asset‑based lending facility (replacing the $600M revolver, $200M accordion) that saves ~$400k in unused commitment fees and yields ~35 bps better pricing at current utilization. For context, FY‑2025 revenue was $5.7B with adjusted EBITDA $109M (1.9% margin), adjusted free cash flow $47M (43% conversion); Q4 revenue was $1.5B with adjusted EBITDA $17M (1.2% margin), brokerage revenue $1.1B (‑14% YoY) and brokerage gross margin 11.9%, complementary services gross margin 20.2%; truckload gross profit per load fell ~10% Nov→Dec and December GP/load was ~30% below the five‑year average (ex‑COVID).

RXO, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income statement and cash flow trends are weak: the company shifted from modest profits to sizable losses (2024–2025) and operating results remain negative, while operating cash flow turned negative in 2024 and free cash flow is negative in 2024–2025. The balance sheet looks more manageable with improved leverage versus prior years, but recent losses reduce earnings support and the 2025 asset snapshot is flagged as less comparable, adding uncertainty.
Income Statement
38
Negative
Revenue has been volatile, with a decline in 2025 (annual) after growth in 2024. Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully: the company moved from modest profits in 2022–2023 to sizable net losses in 2024 and still negative in 2025, and operating profit is also negative in 2025. Gross margin is relatively steady in the mid-to-high teens, but weak operating leverage and elevated costs are pressuring earnings and keeping overall margins thin to negative.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Leverage improved versus the higher-debt years (2022–2023) and debt relative to equity looks moderate in 2024. However, the business has recently produced losses (2024–2025), which weakens the earnings support for the balance sheet and makes future de-levering harder. Also, the 2025 balance sheet shows an unusually low total assets figure versus other years, suggesting the latest snapshot may be less comparable and adds uncertainty to balance-sheet interpretation.
Cash Flow
27
Negative
Cash generation has weakened sharply. Operating cash flow turned negative in 2024 and is essentially minimal in 2025 (annual), while free cash flow is negative in both 2024 and 2025 and dropped materially in 2025. Earlier years (2021–2022) showed strong free cash flow, but the recent reversal indicates reduced cash conversion and higher funding risk if profitability does not recover.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.74B4.55B3.93B4.80B4.69B
Gross Profit1.01B783.00M725.00M860.00M735.00M
EBITDA109.00M117.00M134.00M209.00M272.00M
Net Income-100.00M-290.00M4.00M92.00M150.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.28B3.41B1.82B2.03B2.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments18.00M35.00M5.00M98.00M29.00M
Total Debt861.00M664.00M558.00M617.00M228.00M
Total Liabilities1.74B1.80B1.23B1.44B998.00M
Stockholders Equity1.54B1.61B594.00M587.00M1.07B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-8.00M-57.00M25.00M253.00M116.00M
Operating Cash Flow51.00M-12.00M89.00M310.00M155.00M
Investing Cash Flow-71.00M-1.06B-66.00M-56.00M-38.00M
Financing Cash Flow1.00M1.11B-117.00M-183.00M-158.00M

RXO, Inc. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price14.84
Price Trends
50DMA
14.69
Positive
100DMA
14.87
Negative
200DMA
15.44
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Positive
RSI
48.20
Neutral
STOCH
65.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RXO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.37, above the 50-day MA of 14.69, and below the 200-day MA of 15.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RXO.

RXO, Inc. Risk Analysis

RXO, Inc. disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. RXO, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

RXO, Inc. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
66
Neutral
$4.81B46.103.45%1.40%5.46%2.31%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
63
Neutral
$1.99B-133.251.78%1.84%-3.42%-43.86%
56
Neutral
$2.25B37.794.61%0.62%-5.34%-48.16%
54
Neutral
$1.08B62.762.53%2.07%-9.74%-42.57%
52
Neutral
$391.26M-9.71-6.66%2.76%-7.55%-130.67%
46
Neutral
$2.44B-25.00-6.34%53.85%77.68%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RXO
RXO, Inc.
14.72
-5.13
-25.84%
MRTN
Marten Transport
13.14
-1.02
-7.20%
WERN
Werner Enterprises
32.65
0.80
2.50%
ARCB
ArcBest
96.70
16.58
20.69%
ULH
Universal Logistics
15.43
-11.54
-42.79%
SNDR
Schneider National
26.91
0.86
3.30%

RXO, Inc. Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
RXO Refinances Debt and Redeems 2027 Notes
Positive
Feb 20, 2026

On February 20, 2026, RXO, Inc. completed the previously announced redemption of all its outstanding 7.500% notes due 2027, using a portion of the net proceeds from a new notes offering. The notes were redeemed at 101.875% of their principal amount plus accrued and unpaid interest up to, but excluding, the redemption date, leaving no 2027 notes outstanding and effectively eliminating this tranche of higher-cost debt from the company’s capital structure.

The company also entered into an indenture and a first supplemental indenture on February 20, 2026, with Regions Bank acting as trustee, formalizing the documentation for its new debt arrangements. These steps highlight RXO’s ongoing liability management efforts and may improve its financial flexibility by refinancing older obligations on potentially more favorable terms for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (RXO) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RXO, Inc. stock, see the RXO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
RXO Prices $400 Million Senior Notes to Refinance Debt
Positive
Feb 12, 2026

On February 11, 2026, RXO, Inc. announced it had priced a $400 million offering of 6.375% senior unsecured notes due 2031 at par, with the notes initially guaranteed by certain domestic subsidiaries that also back the company’s asset-based revolving credit facility. The transaction is structured to strengthen RXO’s capital profile, as the company plans to use the proceeds to repurchase or redeem all of its outstanding 7.500% notes due 2027, cover related fees and expenses, and support general corporate purposes, including potential debt repayment, which may lower interest costs and extend its debt maturity profile.

RXO’s move to refinance its 2027 notes with longer-dated 2031 debt indicates a proactive approach to liability management in the transportation sector. The shift to a new note structure could enhance financial flexibility and reduce near-term refinancing risk, with implications for bondholders in the retiring 2027 notes and for equity investors monitoring the company’s leverage and interest expense trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (RXO) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RXO, Inc. stock, see the RXO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
RXO Plans $400 Million Senior Notes to Refinance Debt
Positive
Feb 10, 2026

RXO, Inc., a Charlotte-based, asset-light transportation provider specializing in tech-enabled truck brokerage, managed transportation and last-mile delivery, coordinates freight movements across North American supply chains using a large carrier network and proprietary technology. Its solutions target shippers seeking flexible, outsourced logistics services without taking on asset-heavy fleets.

On Feb. 10, 2026, RXO announced a proposed private offering of $400 million in senior unsecured notes due 2031, with guarantees from certain domestic subsidiaries, and plans to use the proceeds primarily to repurchase or redeem all of its outstanding 7.500% notes due 2027 and for general corporate purposes. The company also issued a conditional notice to fully redeem the 2027 notes on Feb. 20, 2026, at 101.875% of principal plus accrued interest, a move that, if completed, would refinance near-term debt and extend its maturity profile, though the redemption depends on successfully raising sufficient proceeds from the new debt issuance.

The most recent analyst rating on (RXO) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RXO, Inc. stock, see the RXO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
RXO Establishes New Credit Facility Amid Weaker Earnings
Negative
Feb 6, 2026

On February 5, 2026, RXO, Inc. and certain subsidiaries entered into a new five-year, $450 million asset-based revolving credit facility secured by substantially all of the company’s and guarantors’ personal property, replacing and terminating its prior unsecured revolving credit facility that had provided up to $600 million in commitments. The borrowing base of the new facility is tied to eligible accounts receivable and liquid assets, includes capacity for up to $100 million in letters of credit and potential incremental commitments, and is designed to give RXO greater financial flexibility across market cycles while imposing customary covenants and mandatory prepayment triggers tied to availability levels. On February 6, 2026, RXO reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing revenue of $1.5 billion, down from $1.7 billion a year earlier, and a GAAP net loss of $46 million versus a $25 million loss in the prior-year quarter, with margins pressured by a significantly tightened full‑truckload market and lower brokerage profitability. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $17 million from $42 million, and the quarter included $31 million of transaction, integration, restructuring and other costs, including a goodwill impairment related to changes in the managed transportation ground and air express offering, even as the company reported strong sales momentum with brokerage late‑stage pipeline up more than 50% year over year, over $200 million of new managed transportation freight under management, modest growth in last mile, and guidance for first‑quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $5 million to $12 million and a further volume decline in brokerage.

The most recent analyst rating on (RXO) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RXO, Inc. stock, see the RXO Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
RXO Announces Planned Chief Accounting Officer Transition
Neutral
Jan 23, 2026

On January 16, 2026, RXO, Inc. announced that Daniel Morris, 41, currently the company’s vice president of accounting and a former senior accounting leader at XPO since 2015, was appointed Chief Accounting Officer effective May 15, 2026, with compensation aligned to RXO’s standard executive pay programs. On the same date, Chief Accounting Officer Jason Kerr notified RXO of his intention to retire effective May 15, 2026, and will remain with the company until October 15, 2026 to support the transition, with RXO emphasizing that his departure was not due to any disagreement over accounting principles, financial reporting practices, or internal controls, signaling a planned and orderly leadership change in the finance function.

The most recent analyst rating on (RXO) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on RXO, Inc. stock, see the RXO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 21, 2026