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RXO, Inc.
(NYSE:RXO)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$20.50
▼(-20.02% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
RXO’s overall score is held down primarily by weak recent financial performance (losses, sharp TTM revenue decline, and negative free cash flow) and bearish technical trend signals. The main offset is improving forward commentary and guidance from the earnings call (material Q2 EBITDA improvement and margin/rate momentum), but execution and demand risks remain, and valuation support is limited while earnings are negative.
Positive Factors
AI & Technology Productivity
Sustained AI-driven automation and digital quoting materially raise agent productivity and reduce manual costs. Over 2–6 months these efficiency gains can expand operating margins, lower per-load labor expense, and create a durable tech moat that supports scalable volume handling without linear headcount growth.
Negative Factors
Recent Revenue Decline and Losses
A pronounced TTM revenue drop and sustained operating losses weaken economies of scale and limit reinvestment capacity. Over several months this erosion can depress bargaining power with carriers, strain gross-profit leverage, and require meaningful operational improvements to restore prior profitability levels.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
AI & Technology Productivity
Sustained AI-driven automation and digital quoting materially raise agent productivity and reduce manual costs. Over 2–6 months these efficiency gains can expand operating margins, lower per-load labor expense, and create a durable tech moat that supports scalable volume handling without linear headcount growth.
Read all positive factors
RXO, Inc. (RXO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.88B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.92
Revenue Growth9.53%
EPS Growth71.38%
CountryUS
Employees6,906
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.61
Shares Outstanding164,926,130
10 Day Avg. Volume1,751,106
30 Day Avg. Volume1,707,128
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.29
Price to Book (P/B)1.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio-266.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.57Price Target Upside-0.25% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)0.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.80B
RXO, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
RXO, Inc., headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, functions as a freight broker specializing in full truckload transportation services across the United States. The company utilizes its unique digital marketplace to link clients with availabl...
How the Company Makes Money
RXO primarily makes money through its freight brokerage business. In a typical transaction, a shipper pays RXO to arrange transportation for a load, and RXO then pays a carrier (a trucking company or independent owner-operator) to haul that load; ...
RXO, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear operational momentum (spot mix gains, higher revenue per load, managed transportation wins, rapid pipeline growth, and early AI-driven productivity/margin improvements) and an optimistic forward outlook, including raised expectations for full-year contract rate increases (now expected high single digits) and a materially improved Q2 EBITDA guide. However, near-term financials remain pressured by Q1 volume declines, weather-related impacts, negative free cash flow, elevated net leverage and margin headwinds from fuel and cost of transportation. Overall, executives emphasized being in the early innings of a supply-driven recovery and highlighted structural advantages (scale, technology, carrier vetting) that support a positive trajectory.Positive Updates
Revenue and Profitability Drivers
Total revenue of $1.4 billion in Q1 with gross margin of 14.2%. Brokerage revenue was $1.1 billion (74% of total), up 3% year-over-year, driven by higher freight rates, longer truckload length of haul and higher fuel prices.
Negative Updates
Low Adjusted EBITDA and Weather Impact
Adjusted EBITDA was only $6 million in Q1 (at the low end of guidance); severe weather negatively impacted results by approximately $3 million, mostly in last mile.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Profitability Drivers
Total revenue of $1.4 billion in Q1 with gross margin of 14.2%. Brokerage revenue was $1.1 billion (74% of total), up 3% year-over-year, driven by higher freight rates, longer truckload length of haul and higher fuel prices.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
RXO guided second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $27 million to $37 million (midpoint $32M), up materially from first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $6 million (management noted roughly a 5–6x increase to Q2 midpoint), and said 2026 modeling assumptions remain unchanged; they expect brokerage volume to be about flat year‑over‑year in Q2 with truckload volume roughly flat (resuming outperformance versus the market by mid‑year) and LTL approximately flat, last‑mile stops down a low single‑digit percent, while truckload gross profit per load should improve again in Q2 after a 9% sequential increase in Q1 (April GP/load ~10% higher vs. Q1) and truckload revenue per load was +8% YoY in Q1 (April +12% YoY ex‑fuel/length); spot mix — which rose 500 bps sequentially and 600 bps YoY in Q1 (April spot mix ~35%) — is expected to increase further in Q2, and full‑year 2026 contract rates are now anticipated to rise high single digits (vs. prior low‑to‑mid single digits), all supporting management’s stated path to the high end of the Q2 EBITDA range.RXO, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
33
Negative
Balance Sheet
44
Neutral
Cash Flow
39
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.09B | 5.74B | 4.55B | 3.93B | 4.80B | 4.69B |
| Gross Profit | 2.53B | 1.01B | 783.00M | 725.00M | 860.00M | 735.00M |
| EBITDA | 31.01M | 36.00M | 117.00M | 134.00M | 306.00M | 272.00M |
| Net Income | -105.00M | -100.00M | -290.00M | 4.00M | 92.00M | 150.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.46M | 3.28B | 3.41B | 1.82B | 2.03B | 2.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.00K | 18.00M | 35.00M | 5.00M | 98.00M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 728.00K | 861.00M | 664.00M | 558.00M | 617.00M | 228.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.95M | 1.74B | 1.80B | 1.23B | 1.44B | 998.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51M | 1.54B | 1.61B | 594.00M | 587.00M | 1.07B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -18.06M | -8.00M | -57.00M | 25.00M | 253.00M | 116.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.97M | 51.00M | -12.00M | 89.00M | 310.00M | 155.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.03M | -71.00M | -1.06B | -66.00M | -56.00M | -38.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.93M | 1.00M | 1.11B | -117.00M | -183.00M | -158.00M |
RXO, Inc. Risk Analysis
RXO, Inc. disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. RXO, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
RXO, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
61 Neutral | $6.33B | 56.89 | 3.68% | 1.06% | 6.25% | -10.92% | |
58 Neutral | $3.19B | 208.39 | 1.26% | 0.31% | 3.70% | -89.58% | |
56 Neutral | $508.63M | -5.62 | -16.51% | 2.66% | -8.33% | -249.94% | |
52 Neutral | $2.33B | -50.72 | -3.39% | 1.32% | 9.64% | -190.02% | |
52 Neutral | $1.24B | 98.39 | 1.65% | 1.47% | -6.87% | -39.59% | |
45 Neutral | $3.88B | -38.25 | -9.07% | ― | 9.53% | 71.38% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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RXO, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
RXO Reports Revenue Growth Despite Narrower Margins and Loss
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
On August 6, 2026, RXO reported second-quarter 2026 results showing revenue rising to $1.8 billion from $1.4 billion a year earlier, while gross margin narrowed to 13.9% from 17.8%. The company posted a GAAP net loss of $9 million, unchanged from ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
RXO Stockholders Back Board, Executive Pay and Incentive Plan
Positive
May 13, 2026
RXO, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 12, 2026, where shareholders elected eight directors, including CEO Drew Wilkerson, to serve terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting. Investors also approved, on an advisory basis, th...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
RXO Reports Q1 2026 Results Amid Early Freight Recovery
Negative
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, RXO reported first‑quarter 2026 results showing flat revenue year over year at $1.4 billion, but a wider GAAP net loss of $36 million and adjusted EBITDA falling to $6 million, as gross margin contracted to 14.2%. Brokerage v...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.