RXO, Inc. (RXO)
NYSE:RXO
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RXO, Inc.
(NYSE:RXO)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(1.60% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/21/26
The score is primarily constrained by deteriorating financial performance—recent net losses and negative free cash flow outweigh a comparatively manageable balance sheet. Technicals are mildly supportive (positive MACD; price above key shorter-term averages), but valuation remains challenged by negative earnings. The latest earnings call was neutral: near-term guidance is weak, partially offset by cost reductions, pipeline strength, and financing actions that could support a recovery if conditions improve.
Positive Factors
Technology and AI-driven productivity
Substantial, ongoing tech and AI investment builds durable competitive advantage for an asset-light broker. Automation and smarter pricing increase carrier matching efficiency and reduce cost-to-serve, enabling scalable margin improvement and lower incremental cost per load over time.
Negative Factors
Deteriorated profitability and operating losses
Sustained net losses and negative operating profit indicate weak operating leverage and impaired ability to convert revenue into earnings. Continued unprofitability undermines reinvestment capacity, makes de-levering harder, and can constrain long-term strategic options until margins recover.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Technology and AI-driven productivity
Substantial, ongoing tech and AI investment builds durable competitive advantage for an asset-light broker. Automation and smarter pricing increase carrier matching efficiency and reduce cost-to-serve, enabling scalable margin improvement and lower incremental cost per load over time.
Read all positive factors
RXO, Inc. (RXO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.23B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.89
Revenue Growth53.85%
EPS Growth77.68%
CountryUS
Employees7,540
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.07
Shares Outstanding164,711,230
10 Day Avg. Volume1,893,410
30 Day Avg. Volume1,794,378
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.29
Price to Book (P/B)1.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio-266.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.08
Enterprise Value/Ebitda167.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.92Price Target Upside-14.88% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.80B
RXO, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
RXO provides truckload freight transportation brokerage in the United States. The company, through a proprietary digital freight marketplace, offers access to truckload capacity and complementary brokered services of managed transportation, last m...
How the Company Makes Money
RXO primarily makes money through its asset-light freight brokerage model. It earns revenue by arranging transportation for customers (shippers) using third-party carriers, charging the shipper a price for the move, and paying the carrier a negoti...
RXO, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 06, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Balanced/Neutral. The company is facing near-term profitability pressure driven by a sharp, supply-side tightening and rising purchase transportation costs that compressed brokerage margins and produced weak Q4 results and modest Q1 guidance. Offsetting these headwinds are several durable, strategic positives: a late-stage brokerage pipeline up >50% YoY, strong LTL growth (31% YoY), meaningful cost reductions (> $155M removed since spin), solid full-year free cash flow conversion (43%), a right-sized ABL that lowers liquidity costs, and demonstrable benefits from AI and tech investments. Management expects truckload outperformance to resume by mid-2026, positioning the company for recovery if demand inflects. Given the material near-term challenges balanced against significant strategic and structural improvements, the call tone and data support a neutral sentiment.Positive Updates
Strong late-stage brokerage sales pipeline
Late-stage brokerage pipeline grew >50% year-over-year, composed of high-quality new and long-tenured enterprise customers; management expects this pipeline to drive truckload volume outperformance as early as mid-2026 with many bids implemented throughout Q2.
Negative Updates
Q4 profitability compression
Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $17M with adjusted EBITDA margin of 1.2%; adjusted loss per share was $0.70; brokerage gross margin compressed to 11.9%, slightly below outlook and down 160 bps sequentially and 130 bps year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong late-stage brokerage sales pipeline
Late-stage brokerage pipeline grew >50% year-over-year, composed of high-quality new and long-tenured enterprise customers; management expects this pipeline to drive truckload volume outperformance as early as mid-2026 with many bids implemented throughout Q2.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
RXO’s guidance for Q1 2026 calls for adjusted EBITDA of $5–$12 million, brokerage gross margin of 11–13%, and total brokerage volume down roughly 5–10% year‑over‑year (truckload stabilizing), with LTL expected to grow mid‑single‑digits and last‑mile stops down mid‑single‑digits; the outlook assumes continued elevated purchase transportation costs and tight market conditions (tender rejections >13% in January, industry buy rates up ~15% month‑over‑month in December). For full‑year 2026 modeling the company expects CapEx of $50–$55M, depreciation $65–$75M, amortization $40–$45M, stock‑based compensation $25–$35M, net interest expense $32–$36M, cash tax outflows $6–$8M, restructuring/transaction/integration expenses $25–$30M (associated cash outflows $30–$35M, ~1/3 relating to prior periods), and ~170M fully diluted shares. RXO also finalized a $450M asset‑based lending facility (replacing the $600M revolver, $200M accordion) that saves ~$400k in unused commitment fees and yields ~35 bps better pricing at current utilization. For context, FY‑2025 revenue was $5.7B with adjusted EBITDA $109M (1.9% margin), adjusted free cash flow $47M (43% conversion); Q4 revenue was $1.5B with adjusted EBITDA $17M (1.2% margin), brokerage revenue $1.1B (‑14% YoY) and brokerage gross margin 11.9%, complementary services gross margin 20.2%; truckload gross profit per load fell ~10% Nov→Dec and December GP/load was ~30% below the five‑year average (ex‑COVID).RXO, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.74B | 4.55B | 3.93B | 4.80B | 4.69B |
| Gross Profit | 1.01B | 783.00M | 725.00M | 860.00M | 735.00M |
| EBITDA | 109.00M | 117.00M | 134.00M | 209.00M | 272.00M |
| Net Income | -100.00M | -290.00M | 4.00M | 92.00M | 150.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.28B | 3.41B | 1.82B | 2.03B | 2.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.00M | 35.00M | 5.00M | 98.00M | 29.00M |
| Total Debt | 861.00M | 664.00M | 558.00M | 617.00M | 228.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.74B | 1.80B | 1.23B | 1.44B | 998.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.54B | 1.61B | 594.00M | 587.00M | 1.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -8.00M | -57.00M | 25.00M | 253.00M | 116.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 51.00M | -12.00M | 89.00M | 310.00M | 155.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -71.00M | -1.06B | -66.00M | -56.00M | -38.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.00M | 1.11B | -117.00M | -183.00M | -158.00M |
RXO, Inc. Technical Analysis
Positive
18.70
Price Trends
14.94
Positive
14.58
Positive
15.24
Positive
Market Momentum
0.87
Negative
77.27
Negative
85.69
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RXO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.30, above the 50-day MA of 14.94, and above the 200-day MA of 15.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.27 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RXO.
RXO, Inc. Risk Analysis
RXO, Inc. disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. RXO, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
RXO, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $5.30B | 44.87 | 3.44% | 1.40% | 5.46% | 2.31% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $627.39M | -4.00 | -6.38% | 2.76% | -7.55% | -130.67% | |
58 Neutral | $2.64B | 28.19 | 4.61% | 0.62% | -5.34% | -48.16% | |
56 Neutral | $1.21B | 53.18 | 2.27% | 2.07% | -9.74% | -42.57% | |
49 Neutral | $2.01B | -16.16 | -1.03% | 1.84% | -3.42% | -43.86% | |
46 Neutral | $3.23B | -21.29 | -6.35% | ― | 53.85% | 77.68% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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RXO, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
RXO Refinances Debt and Redeems 2027 Notes
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, RXO, Inc. completed the previously announced redemption of all its outstanding 7.500% notes due 2027, using a portion of the net proceeds from a new notes offering. The notes were redeemed at 101.875% of their principal amoun...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
RXO Prices $400 Million Senior Notes to Refinance Debt
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, RXO, Inc. announced it had priced a $400 million offering of 6.375% senior unsecured notes due 2031 at par, with the notes initially guaranteed by certain domestic subsidiaries that also back the company’s asset-based r...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
RXO Plans $400 Million Senior Notes to Refinance Debt
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
RXO, Inc., a Charlotte-based, asset-light transportation provider specializing in tech-enabled truck brokerage, managed transportation and last-mile delivery, coordinates freight movements across North American supply chains using a large carrier ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
RXO Establishes New Credit Facility Amid Weaker Earnings
Negative
Feb 6, 2026
On February 5, 2026, RXO, Inc. and certain subsidiaries entered into a new five-year, $450 million asset-based revolving credit facility secured by substantially all of the company’s and guarantors’ personal property, replacing and ter...
Executive/Board Changes
RXO Announces Planned Chief Accounting Officer Transition
Neutral
Jan 23, 2026
On January 16, 2026, RXO, Inc. announced that Daniel Morris, 41, currently the company’s vice president of accounting and a former senior accounting leader at XPO since 2015, was appointed Chief Accounting Officer effective May 15, 2026, wit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.