Heartland Express (HTLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $800.03M
• Dividend Yield: 0.87%
• Average Volume (3M): 609.23K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: -19.56%
• EPS Growth: -54.39%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,220
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): N/A
• Shares Outstanding: 77,447,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 762,387
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 609,233
• PEG Ratio: 0.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.84
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.03
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 55.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.87
• 1Y Price Target: $9.67
• Price Target Upside: -3.78% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(4.48% Upside)

Heartland Express's stock score is primarily influenced by its challenging financial performance, with declining revenues and negative cash flow growth. However, positive technical indicators and strategic corporate events, such as the CFI integration and consistent dividend payments, provide some optimism. The valuation remains a concern due to a negative P/E ratio.

Positive Factors

CFI integration and fleet expansion

Integrating CFI’s U.S. operations expands fleet capacity and aligns compensation, creating scale and potential route density gains. Over 2–6 months this should improve utilization, enable better load matching, and create structural cost synergies that support sustained service capability.

Longstanding dividend track record

A 90-quarter dividend streak signals disciplined capital allocation and a long-term commitment to returning capital. This durability supports investor confidence, suggests conservative payout policy, and reflects management prioritizing steady shareholder returns across cycles.

Conservative capital structure

Low leverage provides financial flexibility to fund fleet investments, absorb integration costs, and withstand cyclical downturns. A conservative balance sheet reduces refinancing risk, supports capital allocation decisions, and strengthens resilience in the capital-intensive trucking industry.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue trend

Persistent revenue declines undermine scale economics and make fixed-cost recovery harder in trucking. Over months, shrinking top-line volume or pricing pressure reduces utilization and margin leverage, complicating efforts to realize integration synergies and improve long-term profitability.

Severely negative free cash flow growth

Deeply negative FCF growth constrains capacity to fund capex, fleet renewals, and dividends without raising external capital. Even if operating cash to net income is healthy, continued negative FCF erodes financial flexibility and increases reliance on borrowing or equity as durable sources of funding.

Profitability and return weakness

Negative margins and ROE indicate structural profitability issues that impair reinvestment and shareholder value creation. If sustained, they limit ability to finance growth, modernize the fleet, or absorb integration costs, making recovery dependent on material operational or pricing improvements.

Heartland Express Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a short-to-medium haul truckload carrier in the United States and Canada. It primarily provides nationwide asset-based dry van truckload service for shippers from Washington to Florida and New England to California; and temperature-controlled truckload services. The company offers its services under the Heartland Express and Millis Transfer brand names. It primarily serves retailers and manufacturers in consumer goods, appliances, food products, and automotive industries. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa.

How the Company Makes Money

Heartland Express generates revenue primarily through its transportation services, which include full truckload (FTL) services for various cargo types. The company charges customers based on the distance traveled and the type of service provided, with rates influenced by market demand, fuel costs, and operational efficiency. Key revenue streams include contracts with large shippers and brokers, spot market transactions, and dedicated fleet services that cater to specific customer needs. Additionally, Heartland Express benefits from strategic partnerships with other logistics providers, enhancing its service offerings and expanding its market reach. The company's focus on maintaining a modern fleet and investing in technology for route optimization further contributes to its profitability.

Heartland Express Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Heartland Express faces declining revenue growth and profitability challenges, with negative net profit and EBIT margins. Despite a stable gross profit margin and manageable leverage, the negative free cash flow growth is concerning.

Income Statement

Heartland Express has experienced declining revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -6.46% in the TTM period. The company also faces profitability challenges, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. However, the gross profit margin remains relatively stable at 46.95% in the TTM period, suggesting some operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25 in the TTM period, which is manageable. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting recent profitability issues. The equity ratio is stable, indicating a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Heartland Express has faced significant challenges in cash flow, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -390.42% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, but the negative free cash flow to net income ratio indicates cash flow constraints.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	932.24M	1.05B	1.21B	968.00M	607.28M	645.26M
Gross Profit	17.38M	38.88M	78.20M	149.87M	93.82M	110.27M
EBITDA	139.36M	162.43M	243.08M	322.69M	210.13M	204.20M
Net Income	-35.86M	-29.72M	14.78M	133.58M	79.28M	70.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.30B	1.33B	1.51B	1.67B	928.54M	951.18M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.88M	12.81M	28.12M	50.21M	157.74M	114.93M
Total Debt	198.45M	208.61M	317.44M	433.96M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	512.63M	511.59M	644.39M	814.01M	201.44M	226.84M
Stockholders Equity	786.74M	822.60M	865.26M	855.48M	727.10M	724.33M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-31.42M	34.81M	-43.33M	34.15M	-9.22M	-25.49M
Operating Cash Flow	120.22M	144.35M	165.27M	194.71M	123.42M	178.85M
Investing Cash Flow	-61.23M	-46.54M	-67.87M	-663.26M	-2.65M	-111.05M
Financing Cash Flow	-59.57M	-112.71M	-120.69M	359.26M	-78.14M	-32.74M

Heartland Express Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 10.05
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTLD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.19, above the 50-day MA of 9.20, and above the 200-day MA of 8.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HTLD.

Heartland Express Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARCB	67 Neutral	$1.96B	20.62	7.40%	0.62%	-5.34%	-48.16%
MRTN	64 Neutral	$1.02B	59.33	2.53%	2.07%	-9.74%	-42.57%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CVLG	63 Neutral	$638.95M	21.56	6.84%	1.23%	1.62%	-22.52%
WERN	63 Neutral	$1.97B	81.15	1.78%	1.84%	-3.42%	-43.86%
HTLD	58 Neutral	$800.03M	-22.52	-4.35%	0.87%	-19.56%	-54.39%
ULH	52 Neutral	$419.96M	-10.07	-6.66%	2.76%	-7.55%	-130.67%

Heartland Express Corporate Events

Heartland Express names Joshua Helmich Chief Administrative Officer

In connection with the integration of Contract Freighters, Inc.’s U.S. operations into Heartland Express, the company appointed Joshua Helmich as Chief Administrative Officer of Heartland Express, effective January 1, 2026. Helmich, who will continue to serve as the company’s Secretary, ended his roles as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of CFI as of December 31, 2025, marking a leadership realignment that supports the operational and administrative consolidation following the CFI integration.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTLD) stock is a Buy with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heartland Express stock, see the HTLD Stock Forecast page.

Heartland Express Declares Ninetieth Consecutive Quarterly Cash Dividend

On December 16, 2025, Heartland Express, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.02 per share, to be paid on January 7, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 26, 2025, with an estimated total payout of $1.6 million on approximately 78 million common shares. This marks the company’s ninetieth consecutive quarterly cash dividend and brings total cash dividends paid since the program’s launch in the third quarter of 2003 to $561.4 million, underscoring Heartland Express’s sustained commitment to returning capital to shareholders and reinforcing its stability and reliability as a long-term dividend payer.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTLD) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heartland Express stock, see the HTLD Stock Forecast page.

Heartland Express Announces CFI Integration Plan

On December 9, 2025, Heartland Express announced the integration of Contract Freighters, Inc.’s U.S. operations into its own, effective December 31, 2025. This move aims to improve operational and financial performance by aligning driver compensation packages and increasing fleet capacity. The integration will maintain current CFI offices and offer continued employment opportunities for CFI employees, while assessing the impact on goodwill and intangible assets.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTLD) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heartland Express stock, see the HTLD Stock Forecast page.

Heartland Express Approves Equity Grant for Director

On October 22, 2025, Heartland Express‘s Compensation Committee approved an equity grant under the company’s 2021 Restricted Stock Award Plan for David P. Millis, Director and President of Millis Transfer. The award, consisting of 11,947 shares, vested immediately, potentially impacting the company’s leadership incentives and aligning executive interests with shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTLD) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Heartland Express stock, see the HTLD Stock Forecast page.