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ArcBest Corporation (ARCB)
NASDAQ:ARCB
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ArcBest
(NASDAQ:ARCB)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$93.00
â–²(3.08% Upside)
ARCB scores in the mid-range primarily due to weakening financial performance (shrinking revenue and sharply thinner margins) partially offset by an improving balance sheet and positive, rebounding free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with price trading above key moving averages, but valuation is a headwind given the high P/E and low dividend yield. The latest earnings call was mixed: strategic and operational progress was highlighted, yet near-term profitability guidance and recent earnings declines point to continued cycle pressure.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet & liquidity
Low leverage and ample liquidity provide durable financial flexibility to fund targeted CapEx, absorb cyclical freight weakness, and continue shareholder returns. This capital strength reduces refinancing risk and supports strategic investments and opportunistic buybacks over the next 2–6 months.
Strong free cash flow generation
Substantial FCF growth reflects improving operational cash conversion and funds organic investments, network expansion, and shareholder distributions without relying on external financing. Sustained cash generation underpins capital allocation flexibility through freight cycles.
Productivity, AI adoption and Asset-Light turnaround
Meaningful technology and process improvements are translating into recurring cost savings and higher throughput. Broad AI/tool adoption plus route optimization and Managed Solutions growth structurally enhance unit economics, supporting margin recovery and scalable asset-light growth.
Negative Factors
Declining revenue and adverse mix
Sustained revenue decline and shift toward smaller managed shipments reduce operating leverage and pricing power. If market mix and end-market demand (manufacturing, housing) do not recover, growth will remain constrained and scale benefits will be harder to realize over coming quarters.
Compressed profitability and operating-ratio deterioration
Sharp margin compression and ABS OR deterioration reflect higher labor, equipment depreciation and weaker yields. These structural cost and mix pressures materially reduce earnings power and free cash flow unless pricing, mix, or productivity improvements outpace cost inflation.
Cyclical exposure; prolonged freight recession risk
Material sensitivity to freight-cycle dynamics and weak end markets creates durable earnings volatility. Guidance for sequential OR deterioration and near-term Asset Light losses indicate recovery timing is uncertain, limiting visibility into consistent profit expansion over the next several quarters.
ArcBest (ARCB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.03B
Dividend Yield0.62%
Average Volume (3M)300.05K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.4
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth-5.34%
EPS Growth-48.16%
CountryUS
Employees14,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.36
Shares Outstanding22,511,020
10 Day Avg. Volume319,544
30 Day Avg. Volume300,045
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.44
Price to Book (P/B)1.31
Price to Sales (P/S)0.42
P/FCF Ratio14.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.65
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.20
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$90.90Price Target Upside0.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
ArcBest Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionArcBest Corporation provides freight transportation and integrated logistics services. It operates through three segments: Asset-Based, ArcBest, and FleetNet. The Asset-Based segment transports general commodities, such as food, textiles, apparel, furniture, appliances, chemicals, nonbulk petroleum products, rubber, plastics, metal and metal products, wood, glass, automotive parts, machinery, and miscellaneous manufactured products through less-than-truckload services. It also offers motor carrier freight transportation services to customers in Mexico through arrangements with trucking companies. The ArcBest segment provides expedite freight transportation services to commercial and government customers; premium logistics services, such as deployment of specialized equipment to meet linehaul requirements; and international freight transportation with air, ocean, and ground services. It also offers third-party transportation brokerage services by sourcing various capacity solutions, including dry van over the road and intermodal, temperature-controlled and refrigerated, flatbed, intermodal or container shipping, and specialized equipment; full-container and less-than-container load ocean transportation services; warehousing and distribution services; managed transportation services; and moving services to 'do-it-yourself' consumer, as well as provides final mile, time critical, product launch, warehousing, retail logistics, supply chain optimization, and trade show shipping services. The FleetNet segment provides roadside repair solutions and vehicle maintenance management services for commercial and private fleets through a network of third-party service providers. The company was formerly known as Arkansas Best Corporation and changed its name to ArcBest Corporation in May 2014. ArcBest Corporation was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Fort Smith, Arkansas.
How the Company Makes MoneyArcBest generates revenue primarily through its transportation services, which include both asset-based and asset-light solutions. The asset-based segment, which includes the LTL operations, contributes a significant portion of the company's revenue by offering freight transportation services using its own fleet. The asset-light segment generates income through brokerage services, logistics management, and intermodal transportation, allowing the company to leverage third-party carriers. Key revenue streams include LTL freight shipments, truckload services, and logistics solutions, supplemented by technology and software services that enhance supply chain efficiency. Significant partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers also bolster ArcBest's earnings, as they provide consistent shipping and logistics needs. Additionally, the company benefits from market demand fluctuations, economic conditions, and strategic investments in technology that improve operational efficiencies and customer service.
ArcBest Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 30, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: operational and strategic progress (managed solutions growth, AI and productivity savings, fleet and network investments, Asset Light turnaround, and a strong balance sheet) are clear highlights, while near-term financial performance showed meaningful weakness (consolidated revenue down 3%, non-GAAP operating income and EPS materially lower, ABS OR deterioration and weather-related disruptions). Management emphasized disciplined pricing, cost control and long-term targets, but Q4 earnings and Q1 near-term guidance reflect the ongoing freight market softness and mix pressures.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Managed Solutions Growth and Record Performance
Managed solutions delivered double-digit growth in shipments per day and achieved record revenue and shipments for the year; Asset Light shipments growth (13% in January) led by managed business and Asset Light achieved breakeven non-GAAP operating results in Q4 and over $1 million in full-year non-GAAP operating profit (turnaround from 2024 loss).
Asset-Based LTL Volume Improvement
Asset-based LTL shipments increased 2% year over year in Q4 (about 20,000 shipments per day) and daily shipments were reported up 3% year over year in January; tons per day nearly rose ~3% in Q4 and January tonnage increased ~8% year over year.
Pricing Discipline and Yield Gains
Deferred price increases averaged 5% in Q4 (up from 4.5% in Q3) reflecting disciplined, data-driven pricing; truckload revenue per shipment increased 11% year over year and truckload gross margin per shipment improved ~17% year over year.
AI and Technology Efficiency Gains
AI and automation initiatives delivered tangible benefits: $2.5 million operating income benefit in truckload, 30+ AI agents deployed, automated 120,000 email quotes in 2025, AI phone options cut abandonment rates in half, and 15–20% of employees consistently using AI tools daily.
Continuous Improvement and Route Optimization Savings
Continuous improvement program adoption across ~60% of the network delivered $24 million in annual cost savings; city route optimization phases 2 and 3 contributed $2 million in 2025, bringing total savings from the project to $15 million for the year.
Productivity and Cost Efficiency in Asset Light
Asset Light SG&A cost per shipment reached a historic low and shipments per person per day rose 19% in Q4; SG&A cost per shipment decreased 15% year over year driven by productivity initiatives and higher managed mix.
Digital Adoption and Network Modernization
Truckload carrier portal adoption reached 32% and more than half of truckload shipments are digitally augmented; ArcBestView platform planned mid-year to enhance visibility; added nearly 800 doors to real estate network and new capacity projects (e.g., Denver) coming online.
Capital Allocation and Balance Sheet Strength
Returned >$86 million to shareholders in 2025 via buybacks and dividends; ended 2025 with ~$400 million available liquidity and net debt/EBITDA well below S&P 500 average; 2025 net CapEx of $198 million and 2026 net CapEx guidance of $150–$170 million (below 5% of revenue).
Leadership and Governance Enhancements
Welcomed Mac Pinkerton as Chief Operating Officer of Asset Light and added two independent directors (Anne Bordelon and Bobby George), strengthening operational and digital transformation expertise at the executive and board levels.
Strategic Consistency and 2028 Targets Reaffirmed
Management reaffirmed long-term 2028 targets and emphasized continued investment in growth, efficiency and innovation while preparing the business to scale profitably when the market recovers.
Negative Updates
Decline in Consolidated Revenue
Consolidated revenue was $973 million in Q4, down 3% year over year.
Sharp Drop in Non-GAAP Operating Income and EPS
Non-GAAP operating income from continuing operations fell to $14 million in Q4 from $41 million a year ago (approximately -66%); adjusted non-GAAP EPS declined to $0.36 from $1.33 in 2024 (approximately -73%).
Asset-Based Operating Performance Deterioration
Asset-based segment non-GAAP operating income decreased by $28 million year over year and ABS operating ratio worsened to 96.2% in Q4, a 420 basis point increase year over year and a 370 basis point sequential increase (partly due to three fewer revenue days).
Revenue per Hundredweight and Mix Pressures
Revenue per hundredweight declined roughly 3% year over year (Q4) and management noted mix shifts (reduced manufacturing vertical activity and fewer truckload-rated shipments) that pressured yield; during Q&A management also referenced revenue per hundredweight down ~8% in a January comp discussion.
Asset Light Revenue and Revenue per Shipment Weakness
Asset Light Q4 revenue was $354 million with daily revenue down 5% year over year; revenue per shipment decreased ~6% driven by softer freight market and higher mix of smaller managed shipments despite shipment-per-day growth.
Near-Term Profitability Pressure for Q1
Company expects first-quarter ABS operating ratio to increase ~100–200 basis points sequentially and Asset Light may face up to a $1 million operating loss in Q1 due to seasonality and market conditions.
Market Softness and Prolonged Freight Recession
Management acknowledged a prolonged freight recession (multi-year softness), ongoing macro uncertainty (tariffs, interest rates) and softness in manufacturing and housing-related verticals that weighed on volumes and yields.
Weather Disruption Impact
Severe winter storms caused network disruptions, service center closures and sequential deterioration in shipments/day and tonnage per day (Dec→Jan shipments/day down ~3% and tonnage/day down ~4% sequentially), with some incremental recovery costs still to be finalized.
Higher Operating Costs in ABS
Increased operating costs in ABS from additional labor to support shipment growth, annual contracted union labor rate increases, and higher equipment depreciation contributing to margin pressure.
Earnings Volatility and Near-Term Guidance Uncertainty
Significant YoY declines in operating income and EPS introduce volatility; management’s 2026 commentary assumes limited macro recovery and includes guidance for sequential OR deterioration and cautious CapEx/equipment replacement timing due to higher equipment costs.
Company Guidance
The company guided that first-quarter operating ratio should worsen sequentially by about 100–200 basis points (better than the historical ~260 bps Q4→Q1 increase), with Asset Light expected to incur an operating loss of up to $1 million in Q1; for 2026 they expect net CapEx of $150–$170 million (below 5% of revenue) after $198 million of 2025 net CapEx (including $25 million of property sales). Management reaffirmed its 2028 targets (including long‑term EPS of $12–$15), said it will remain opportunistic on share repurchases after returning >$86 million in 2025, and noted roughly $400 million of available liquidity with net debt/EBITDA well below the S&P 500 average. Recent operational trends that inform the outlook included January ABF daily shipments +3% YoY, weight per shipment +5% and daily tonnage +8%, Asset Light January revenue +6% and shipments +13%, and a Q4 backdrop of consolidated revenue $973M, adjusted EPS $0.36, ABS operating ratio 96.2% (up 420 bps YoY) and Q4 deferred price increases averaging 5%.ArcBest Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Results reflect a cyclical downturn: revenue has been shrinking and profitability/margins compressed sharply into 2025 (very thin gross and net margins). Offsetting this, the balance sheet looks resilient with improving leverage, and cash generation stayed positive with a 2025 free-cash-flow rebound—though cash flow has been volatile and ROE has fallen materially.Income Statement
Revenue has been shrinking for several years (down in 2023 and 2024, and sharply lower in 2025), and profitability has compressed meaningfully versus prior peaks. 2025 margins are especially thin (gross margin ~2.3% and net margin ~1.5%) compared with healthier levels in 2021–2022, indicating weaker pricing/cost leverage and a tougher demand environment. Offsetting this, the company remained profitable across the period, but the trajectory shows clear deterioration into 2025.44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage appears moderate and improving, with debt-to-equity declining from ~0.49 (2020) to ~0.25 (2025) and equity holding around ~$1.3B. Total assets have been relatively stable, suggesting balance-sheet resilience through the cycle. The key weakness is return on equity trending down materially (from strong levels in 2021–2022 to ~4.6% in 2025), reflecting weaker earnings power rather than balance-sheet strain.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains solid and positive, and free cash flow rebounded strongly in 2025 (up materially year-over-year) with free cash flow of ~$114M. However, cash conversion is mixed: free cash flow has been volatile (notably weaker in 2023–2024), and 2025 free cash flow is about half of net income, indicating less consistent conversion than in 2020–2022. Overall, liquidity generation is a support, but durability/consistency is the main concern.56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.01B | 4.18B | 4.43B | 5.03B | 3.77B |
| Gross Profit | 90.31M | 350.00M | 378.43M | 573.52M | 406.33M |
| EBITDA | 265.79M | 376.78M | 341.74M | 536.07M | 406.22M |
| Net Income | 60.10M | 173.96M | 195.43M | 298.21M | 213.52M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.45B | 2.43B | 2.49B | 2.49B | 2.11B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 124.23M | 157.20M | 330.07M | 325.93M | 124.96M |
| Total Debt | 668.92M | 413.48M | 437.73M | 438.68M | 337.11M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.16B | 1.12B | 1.24B | 1.34B | 1.18B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.30B | 1.31B | 1.24B | 1.15B | 929.07M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 114.18M | 45.85M | 90.17M | 305.31M | 245.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 228.95M | 285.85M | 322.17M | 470.82M | 323.51M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -76.70M | -187.28M | -21.70M | -261.08M | -303.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -177.66M | -233.35M | -196.61M | -127.98M | -247.65M |
ArcBest Technical Analysis
Positive
90.22
Price Trends
77.67
Positive
74.19
Positive
72.34
Positive
Market Momentum
2.79
Positive
60.83
Neutral
30.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARCB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 90.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 87.31, above the 50-day MA of 77.67, and above the 200-day MA of 72.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.79 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARCB.
ArcBest Risk Analysis
ArcBest disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ArcBest reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ArcBest Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $1.00B | 58.57 | 2.53% | 2.07% | -9.74% | -42.57% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $616.16M | 91.45 | 6.84% | 1.23% | 1.62% | -22.52% | |
63 Neutral | $2.05B | 84.19 | 1.78% | 1.84% | -3.42% | -43.86% | |
58 Neutral | $781.45M | -22.61 | -4.35% | 0.87% | -19.56% | -54.39% | |
56 Neutral | $2.03B | 34.44 | 4.61% | 0.62% | -5.34% | -48.16% | |
52 Neutral | $421.54M | -10.46 | -6.66% | 2.76% | -7.55% | -130.67% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ARCB
ArcBest
90.22
-0.57
-0.62%
CVLG
Covenant Logistics Group
24.60
-2.13
-7.95%
HTLD
Heartland Express
10.09
-0.94
-8.52%
MRTN
Marten Transport
12.30
-2.54
-17.12%
WERN
Werner Enterprises
34.25
-0.06
-0.16%
ULH
Universal Logistics
16.01
-26.09
-61.97%
ArcBest Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
ArcBest refreshes board with new independent directors
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 26, 2026, ArcBest’s board expanded from eleven to thirteen members with the appointment of Ann G. Bordelon, a seasoned finance executive and CPA, and Bobby K. George, a veteran technology and digital innovation leader, as independent directors and Audit Committee members, moves intended to deepen the board’s financial and IT expertise as the company executes its growth and digital transformation strategy. The company also disclosed that longtime directors Fredrik J. Eliasson and Kathleen D. McElligott will retire from the board effective February 28, 2026, following the previously announced retirement of director Craig E. Philip on January 28, 2026, after which the board will contract to ten members, eight of them independent, reflecting a broader board refresh and governance effort that balances continuity with new skills for overseeing ArcBest’s evolving logistics business and long-term value creation for shareholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (ARCB) stock is a Hold with a $93.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcBest stock, see the ARCB Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
ArcBest Board Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Jan 27, 2026
On January 27, 2026, ArcBest announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.12 per share on its common stock, payable on February 24, 2026 to shareholders of record as of February 10, 2026. The dividend underscores the company’s ongoing capital return strategy and signals confidence in its financial position, offering income to shareholders while reinforcing ArcBest’s standing as a stable player in the logistics and supply chain sector.
The most recent analyst rating on (ARCB) stock is a Buy with a $96.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcBest stock, see the ARCB Stock Forecast page.
Financial Disclosures
ArcBest Reports November 2025 Financial Performance Update
Negative
Dec 1, 2025
ArcBest has provided an update on its fourth quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting preliminary statistics for November 2025. The asset-based segment saw an increase in daily shipments and tonnage compared to the previous year, although revenue per hundredweight declined. Sequentially, from October to November, shipments per day increased by 3%, and tonnage per day rose by 8%. However, the company anticipates a sequential deterioration of its non-GAAP operating ratio by about 400 basis points due to market softness and fewer workdays. In the asset-light segment, November 2025 saw a year-over-year decline in daily revenue, attributed to lower revenue per shipment and a higher mix of Managed business. Despite this, shipments grew by 5% year-over-year, supported by the Managed solution. The company expects a non-GAAP operating loss for the fourth quarter of 2025, excluding certain GAAP impacts.
The most recent analyst rating on (ARCB) stock is a Hold with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcBest stock, see the ARCB Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ArcBest Amends Credit Facility for Increased Flexibility
Neutral
Nov 26, 2025
On November 25, 2025, ArcBest Corporation amended its revolving credit facility, increasing the letter of credit sub-facility limit and extending the maturity date for consenting lenders. The updated Credit Facility, with a five-year term and a $250 million maximum credit amount, will support general corporate needs and working capital, offering flexibility through an Accordion Feature for additional commitments.
The most recent analyst rating on (ARCB) stock is a Hold with a $63.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcBest stock, see the ARCB Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
ArcBest Expands Board with New Appointment
Neutral
Oct 31, 2025
On October 29, 2025, ArcBest Corporation announced the expansion of its Board of Directors by appointing Chris T. Sultemeier, who brings over 30 years of experience in logistics and transportation, to enhance the board’s capabilities. This move aligns with ArcBest’s strategy to strengthen its leadership as it continues to pursue long-term sustainable value for shareholders. Concurrently, Dr. Craig E. Philip announced his retirement from the board after 14 years of service, effective January 2026, and Eduardo F. Conrado was elected as the Lead Independent Director, succeeding Steven L. Spinner. These changes reflect ArcBest’s ongoing evaluation of board composition and its focus on maintaining a diverse and skilled leadership team.
The most recent analyst rating on (ARCB) stock is a Hold with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcBest stock, see the ARCB Stock Forecast page.
Dividends
ArcBest Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend Approval
Positive
Oct 31, 2025
On October 31, 2025, ArcBest announced that its Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.12 per share, payable to shareholders on November 28, 2025. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may positively impact its market positioning by reinforcing investor confidence.
The most recent analyst rating on (ARCB) stock is a Hold with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ArcBest stock, see the ARCB Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.