Marten Transport (MRTN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.00B
• Dividend Yield: 2.07%
• Average Volume (3M): 726.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 58.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: -9.74%
• EPS Growth: -42.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,776
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 81,520,424
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 972,000
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 726,985
• PEG Ratio: -0.76
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.32
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 19.01
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.00
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.50 ▲(8.26% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—strong balance sheet and improved gross margin offset by declining revenue, thin net margins, and sharply weaker free cash flow. Technical indicators are moderately supportive, but a very high P/E with only a modest yield meaningfully pressures the overall score.

Positive Factors

Very low leverage / strong balance sheet

Extremely low debt provides durable financial flexibility to weather freight cycles, fund fleet renewals, and invest in technology without refinancing risk. This capital structure supports long-term stability and lowers default risk during extended industry downturns.

Improved gross margin

A materially higher gross margin reflects better cost management and pricing execution in core truckload and refrigerated operations. Sustained margin expansion enhances cash generation potential and gives room to absorb volume shortfalls while preserving profitability.

Specialized refrigerated fleet and tech investments

Specialization in temperature-sensitive freight, a modern fleet, and ongoing tech investments create durable competitive advantages: higher customer stickiness, premium service capability, and route/asset efficiency that support longer-term pricing power and differentiated service.

Negative Factors

Revenue decline and volume pressure

Sustained revenue contraction signals structural demand weakness and reduces scale economies. Lower top-line volumes limit fixed-cost absorption, constrain margin recovery, and make earnings more sensitive to pricing and utilization, hindering durable profit growth.

Sharp free cash flow deterioration

A steep drop in free cash flow undermines the firm's ability to fund capex, fleet refreshes, dividends, or strategic investments from operations. Even with decent operating cash to net income, weak FCF conversion reduces financial flexibility across freight cycles.

Thin net margins and low ROE

Very slim net margins and low ROE indicate limited returns on capital and narrow buffers against cost inflation or rate compression. Structural profitability constraints reduce reinvestment capacity and increase dependence on volume recovery to meaningfully lift shareholder returns.

Marten Transport Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Marten Transport, Ltd. operates as a temperature-sensitive truckload carrier for shippers in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Truckload, Dedicated, Intermodal, and Brokerage. The Truckload segment transports food and other consumer packaged goods that require a temperature-controlled or insulated environment. The Dedicated segment offers customized transportation solutions for individual customers' requirements using temperature-controlled trailers, dry vans, and other specialized equipment. The Intermodal segment transports customers' freight utilizing its refrigerated containers and temperature-controlled trailers on railroad flatcars for portions of trips, as well as using tractors and contracted carriers. The Brokerage segment develops contractual relationships with and arranges for third-party carriers to transport freight for customers in temperature-controlled trailers and dry vans. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 3,204 tractors, including 3,111 company-owned tractors and 93 tractors supplied by independent contractors. Marten Transport, Ltd. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Mondovi, Wisconsin.

How the Company Makes Money

Marten Transport generates revenue primarily through its truckload transportation services, which encompass both refrigerated and dry freight. The company charges its clients based on the distance traveled and the type of cargo transported. Key revenue streams include long-haul and regional trucking services, with a significant portion of earnings derived from transporting perishable goods due to its focus on temperature-controlled logistics. Additionally, Marten Transport benefits from a strong network of customer relationships, long-term contracts, and partnerships with various businesses in need of reliable shipping solutions. The company's ability to maintain high operational efficiency and utilize technology for route optimization further contributes to its profitability.

Marten Transport Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed. Revenue and profitability have weakened meaningfully since 2022 with net margin compressing sharply, and cash flow quality is a concern due to persistently negative free cash flow (including TTM). Offsetting this, the balance sheet is a major strength with extremely low debt and strong financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Results have weakened meaningfully versus prior years. Revenue has been declining from 2022 through TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), and profitability has compressed sharply: net margin fell from high-single-digits in 2020–2022 to ~2.8% in 2024 and ~1.7% in TTM. EBIT and net income are also down materially from the 2022 peak, indicating a tougher pricing/cost environment. A positive offset is the strong TTM gross margin, but overall earnings power and trajectory are clearly softer.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a clear strength. Debt is extremely low relative to equity across all periods (debt-to-equity near zero), providing high financial flexibility and low solvency risk. Total assets and equity remain substantial and relatively stable. The main drawback is returns have cooled materially—return on equity declined from ~15.7% (2022) to ~3.5% (2024) and ~2.5% in TTM—reflecting lower profitability rather than balance-sheet stress.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has become less supportive. While operating cash flow remains positive (including $93.5M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)) and roughly covers reported earnings in TTM, free cash flow has been negative in most years (2021, 2023, 2024, and TTM), implying elevated capital spending and/or weaker cash conversion. Free cash flow deterioration from 2022’s positive level to deeply negative in 2024 and still negative in TTM is a key concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	883.65M	963.71M	1.13B	1.26B	973.64M	874.37M
Gross Profit	50.49M	130.70M	188.73M	238.50M	183.15M	170.76M
EBITDA	120.02M	139.90M	193.22M	240.98M	197.96M	185.69M
Net Income	17.44M	26.92M	70.37M	110.35M	85.43M	69.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	949.77M	968.76M	990.34M	980.52M	884.26M	845.45M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	43.28M	17.27M	53.21M	80.60M	56.99M	66.13M
Total Debt	388.00K	578.00K	249.00K	710.00K	540.00K	918.00K
Total Liabilities	182.14M	200.84M	232.95M	276.60M	232.59M	225.12M
Stockholders Equity	767.63M	767.92M	757.39M	703.92M	651.68M	620.33M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-31.57M	-98.42M	-76.18M	42.87M	-28.09M	16.55M
Operating Cash Flow	93.49M	134.81M	164.38M	219.49M	171.20M	189.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-42.88M	-152.14M	-172.54M	-134.96M	-123.73M	-106.33M
Financing Cash Flow	-19.60M	-18.62M	-19.23M	-60.93M	-56.60M	-48.61M

Marten Transport Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 12.47
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MRTN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.50, above the 50-day MA of 11.57, and above the 200-day MA of 11.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MRTN.

Marten Transport Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MRTN	64 Neutral	$1.00B	58.57	2.53%	2.07%	-9.74%	-42.57%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CVLG	63 Neutral	$616.16M	91.45	6.84%	1.23%	1.62%	-22.52%
WERN	63 Neutral	$2.05B	84.19	1.78%	1.84%	-3.42%	-43.86%
HTLD	58 Neutral	$781.45M	-22.61	-4.35%	0.87%	-19.56%	-54.39%
ARCB	56 Neutral	$2.03B	34.44	4.61%	0.62%	-5.34%	-48.16%
ULH	52 Neutral	$421.54M	-10.46	-6.66%	2.76%	-7.55%	-130.67%

Marten Transport Corporate Events

Marten Transport Reports Weaker Q4 Results Amid Freight Recession

On January 27, 2026, Marten Transport reported that net income for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, fell to $3.7 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, from $5.6 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, a year earlier, even as earnings improved 66.1% from the depressed third quarter of 2025. Full-year 2025 net income declined to $17.4 million from $26.9 million in 2024 as operating revenue shrank to $883.7 million from $963.7 million, pressured by lower fuel surcharge revenue and a prolonged freight market recession marked by oversupply, weak demand, inflationary costs, freight rate reductions and network disruptions. Operating income also weakened year over year—to $4.6 million in the fourth quarter and $22.9 million for 2025—while operating expenses consumed a larger share of revenue, although sequential profitability and operating metrics such as revenue per tractor, rate per mile and miles per tractor improved in both truckload and dedicated operations. Management highlighted the continued resilience of its dedicated and brokerage segments and emphasized the company’s debt-free balance sheet, ongoing investments in technology and a modern fleet, and a focus on premium service, data-driven efficiencies and cost controls as key to positioning Marten for profitable organic growth once freight market conditions normalize.

The most recent analyst rating on (MRTN) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marten Transport stock, see the MRTN Stock Forecast page.