Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $616.16M
• Dividend Yield: 1.23%
• Average Volume (3M): 101.65K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 91.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.17
• Revenue Growth: 1.62%
• EPS Growth: -22.52%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 20,347,178
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 78,408
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 101,648
• PEG Ratio: -0.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.63
• P/FCF Ratio: -23.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.52
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.29
• 1Y Price Target: $30.00
• Price Target Upside: 38.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $27.00 ▲(24.94% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—strong growth but pressured profitability and weak free cash flow—while technicals are supportive. Valuation is reasonable but not compelling given earnings and cash-flow risks, and the latest earnings call points to a difficult near-term operating environment with rising indebtedness.

Positive Factors

Strong revenue growth

Sustained top-line expansion increases scale, network density and pricing leverage across logistics services. Higher revenue growth supports investments in fleet, technology and cross-selling, strengthening long-term competitive position despite margin pressure.

Diversified service portfolio

A multi-channel business model (truckload, managed logistics, dedicated fleets, warehouse services) spreads demand risk, enables cross-selling, and captures more supply-chain value. Diversification supports steadier cash flows and resilience to segment-specific shocks.

Manageable reported leverage

A moderate debt-to-equity level and healthy equity ratio provide financing flexibility for capital spending and working-capital cycles. This balance sheet capacity supports fleet renewal and strategic investments without immediate solvency pressure, given prudent leverage metrics.

Negative Factors

Severe free cash flow weakness

Extremely deteriorated free cash flow undermines the firm’s ability to self-fund capex, repay debt, or reliably sustain dividends. Persistent cash-generation shortfalls constrain strategic flexibility, elevate refinancing and liquidity risk, and can force dilutive or costly financing actions.

Compressed profit margins

Very low gross and net margins leave limited buffer for fuel, labor, or claims inflation. Declining operating income signals pressure in asset-based segments; margin fragility reduces reinvestment capacity and makes earnings sensitive to small cost or pricing shocks.

Rising net indebtedness

An upward trend in net debt and leverage limits financial flexibility and raises interest and covenant risk. Higher indebtedness during a soft freight cycle can restrict capacity to pursue growth, force cutbacks, or increase financing costs when market conditions worsen.

Covenant Logistics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) is a leading provider of integrated logistics and transportation solutions, primarily operating in the trucking and freight sectors. The company offers a wide range of services including truckload, logistics, and dedicated contract carriage, serving both domestic and international markets. With a focus on technology-driven solutions and operational efficiency, CVLG aims to provide exceptional service to its clients while optimizing supply chain management.

How the Company Makes Money

Covenant Logistics Group generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from its trucking services, which include long-haul and short-haul transportation of freight. The company's revenue model is based on the transportation of goods for customers across various industries, using both owned assets and contract carriers. Key revenue streams include truckload services, logistics management, and dedicated fleet services. Additionally, CVLG benefits from strategic partnerships with major retailers and manufacturers that require reliable logistics solutions. The company also leverages technology to improve route efficiency and reduce operational costs, enhancing profitability.

Covenant Logistics Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: strong revenue growth but low and pressured margins (TTM gross margin 4.09%, net margin 2.81%). Balance sheet leverage is manageable (TTM debt-to-equity 0.73), but cash generation is a key weakness given sharply negative free cash flow growth and low FCF-to-net income (1.27%).

Income Statement

Covenant Logistics Group shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM gross profit margin is low at 4.09%, indicating potential pricing or cost challenges. However, the company has maintained a positive net profit margin of 2.81% in the TTM, despite a significant revenue growth rate of 79.2%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, suggesting operational efficiency. The revenue growth trajectory is strong, but the declining margins over the years could pose a risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.73 in the TTM, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity is moderate at 7.48%, showing decent profitability from shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a strong asset base relative to liabilities. However, the increasing debt levels over the years could be a concern if not managed properly.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals challenges, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -2006.13% in the TTM, indicating cash flow issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 1.27%, suggesting limited cash generation relative to profits. The company needs to improve its cash flow management to support growth and operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.15B	1.13B	1.10B	1.22B	1.05B	838.56M
Gross Profit	179.90M	189.65M	164.20M	185.99M	147.28M	109.55M
EBITDA	140.24M	146.00M	150.15M	137.87M	117.24M	55.40M
Net Income	32.22M	35.92M	55.23M	108.68M	60.73M	-42.72M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.03B	997.57M	954.44M	796.64M	651.66M	676.72M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	268.34M	35.62M	2.29M	68.67M	8.41M	8.41M
Total Debt	309.11M	296.89M	293.46M	179.63M	74.25M	111.59M
Total Liabilities	601.89M	559.23M	551.02M	419.52M	301.96M	386.07M
Stockholders Equity	423.72M	438.34M	403.42M	377.13M	349.70M	290.64M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-30.48M	-30.07M	-132.77M	58.76M	37.93M	-31.01M
Operating Cash Flow	110.03M	122.89M	84.84M	159.23M	73.22M	63.04M
Investing Cash Flow	-92.65M	-107.67M	-235.92M	-86.21M	10.34M	138.05M
Financing Cash Flow	-49.89M	18.11M	84.71M	-12.77M	-83.56M	-236.27M

Covenant Logistics Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 21.61
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVLG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.31, below the 50-day MA of 22.98, and below the 200-day MA of 22.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for CVLG.

Covenant Logistics Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MRTN	64 Neutral	$1.00B	58.57	2.53%	2.07%	-9.74%	-42.57%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CVLG	63 Neutral	$616.16M	91.45	6.84%	1.23%	1.62%	-22.52%
WERN	63 Neutral	$2.05B	84.19	1.78%	1.84%	-3.42%	-43.86%
HTLD	58 Neutral	$781.45M	-22.61	-4.35%	0.87%	-19.56%	-54.39%
ARCB	56 Neutral	$2.03B	34.44	4.61%	0.62%	-5.34%	-48.16%
ULH	52 Neutral	$421.54M	-10.46	-6.66%	2.76%	-7.55%	-130.67%

Covenant Logistics Group Corporate Events

Covenant Logistics Group Adopts 2026 Executive Bonus Plan

On December 16, 2025, Covenant Logistics Group’s board compensation committee approved a new short-term cash incentive plan for its named executive officers, effective January 1, 2026, setting bonus targets as a percentage of year-end annualized base salary at 100% for CEO David R. Parker and President M. Paul Bunn, 70% for James S. Grant, and 60% for Dustin Koehl and Joey Ballard. Under the 2026 Senior Executive Bonus Program, executives can earn up to 150% of their bonus targets based on achieving adjusted earnings per share objectives and up to an additional 25% tied to the completion of strategic projects, aligning leadership compensation more closely with financial performance and key strategic initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVLG) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Covenant Logistics Group stock, see the CVLG Stock Forecast page.

Covenant Logistics Declares Quarterly Dividend for 2025

On November 20, 2025, Covenant Logistics Group‘s Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.07 per share for Class A and Class B common stock. This dividend, part of a previously approved program, will be payable to stockholders of record on December 5, 2025, and is expected to be distributed on December 26, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders through regular dividends.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVLG) stock is a Hold with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Covenant Logistics Group stock, see the CVLG Stock Forecast page.