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Covenant Logistics Group
(NYSE:CVLG)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$45.00
â–²(108.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/24/26
CVLG’s score is held back primarily by weak profitability and returns (very thin TTM net margin and low ROE), plus an expensive earnings multiple. Offsetting these are constructive technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD) and improving balance-sheet/liquidity signals (deleveraging in results and expanded/extended credit facility), with management guiding to sequential improvement but acknowledging persistent cost and execution risks.
Positive Factors
Operating Cash Generation
Sustained positive operating cash flow and a large TTM free-cash-flow rebound provide durable financial flexibility to pay down debt, fund targeted capex, and support shareholder distributions. This cash generation reduces refinancing risk and underpins multi-quarter recovery plans even if margins recover slowly.
Negative Factors
Extremely Thin Profitability
Margins and returns are very compressed, limiting the company's ability to compound equity or absorb cost shocks. With near-break-even net margins, modest headwinds in fuel, labor, or brokerage can wipe out earnings, constraining capital allocation and long-term shareholder value creation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating Cash Generation
Sustained positive operating cash flow and a large TTM free-cash-flow rebound provide durable financial flexibility to pay down debt, fund targeted capex, and support shareholder distributions. This cash generation reduces refinancing risk and underpins multi-quarter recovery plans even if margins recover slowly.
Read all positive factors
Covenant Logistics Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability for the company.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability for the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCovenant Logistics Group (CVLG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.15B
Dividend Yield1.23%
Average Volume (3M)101.65K
Price to Earnings (P/E)258.3
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth7.15%
EPS Growth-87.09%
CountryUS
Employees4,800
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.18
Shares Outstanding20,470,990
10 Day Avg. Volume78,408
30 Day Avg. Volume101,648
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.99
Price to Book (P/B)1.36
Price to Sales (P/S)0.47
P/FCF Ratio-16.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$51.50Price Target Upside138.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.72
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.31B
Covenant Logistics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing. The Expedited segment p...
How the Company Makes Money
Covenant Logistics Group makes money primarily by selling transportation capacity and logistics services to shippers under contractual and transactional arrangements. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Truckload transportation revenue earn...
Covenant Logistics Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed cautious optimism: there are clear top-line and balance-sheet positives (revenue up 15.9%, net debt reduced by ~$51M, stronger pipeline and early Q2 demand improvement) and operational wins in Dedicated, Managed Freight and Warehouse revenue growth. However, near-term profitability is pressured (consolidated adjusted operating income down 11.5%, Expedited adjusted operating ratio 99.1%, ROIC down to 5%), with material headwinds from weather, fuel, driver pay inflation, elevated brokerage costs and equipment cost/timing that could offset some rate improvements. Management expects sequential quarterly improvement through 2026 but acknowledges several risks that temper near-term margin recovery.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated freight revenue increased 15.9% year-over-year (≈$38.7M) to $281.9M in Q1 2026, driven in part by assets acquired in Q4 2025 (operating as Star Logistics Solutions).
Negative Updates
Adjusted Operating Income Decline
Consolidated adjusted operating income fell 11.5% year-over-year to $9.6M in Q1 2026, primarily due to margin compression in the Expedited segment driven by weather and higher fuel costs.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated freight revenue increased 15.9% year-over-year (≈$38.7M) to $281.9M in Q1 2026, driven in part by assets acquired in Q4 2025 (operating as Star Logistics Solutions).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Covenant guided that 2026 should be a transition year with sequential quarterly improvement as rate and lane gains secured in Q1 begin to show up in Q2, citing Q1 consolidated freight revenue up 15.9% (~$38.7M) to $281.9M while consolidated adjusted operating income fell 11.5% to $9.6M; net indebtedness fell ~ $51M to $245.3M (adjusted leverage ~1.8x; debt-to-capital 37.6%), average tractor age rose to 26 months from 20 months, and trailing-4-quarter ROA was 5% versus 7.6% a year ago. Segment targets and metrics include Expedited adjusted operating ratio of 99.1% (with line-of-sight to sequential improvement), Dedicated 95.5% (improved from 98.1%) with a goal to restore double‑digit adjusted operating margins, Managed Freight aiming for mid-single‑digit adjusted operating margin, Warehouse revenue +14.6% with a target of high‑single‑digit margin, and TEL contribution of $3.7M pretax; they warned equipment deliveries could modestly raise leverage, expect $7k–$10k average new truck cost increases, see used equipment markets bottoming, and signaled driver‑pay pressure (mid‑single‑digits, possibly high single‑digits) that may consume roughly 30–40% of early rate increases (leaving ~60–70% to flow to the bottom absent other inflation).Covenant Logistics Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.20B | 1.16B | 1.13B | 1.10B | 1.22B | 1.05B |
| Gross Profit | 153.89M | 93.31M | 189.65M | 164.20M | 185.99M | 147.28M |
| EBITDA | 111.12M | 116.87M | 146.00M | 150.15M | 203.39M | 135.82M |
| Net Income | 5.10M | 7.24M | 35.92M | 55.23M | 108.68M | 60.73M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.02B | 1.10B | 997.57M | 954.44M | 796.64M | 651.66M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 11.24M | 4.95M | 35.62M | 2.29M | 68.67M | 8.41M |
| Total Debt | 291.75M | 338.70M | 296.89M | 293.46M | 179.63M | 74.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 609.22M | 694.33M | 559.23M | 551.02M | 419.52M | 301.96M |
| Stockholders Equity | 407.60M | 404.00M | 438.34M | 403.42M | 377.13M | 349.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 139.84M | -33.92M | -30.07M | -132.77M | 58.76M | 37.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 117.78M | 113.65M | 122.89M | 84.84M | 159.23M | 73.22M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -91.76M | -140.06M | -107.67M | -235.92M | -86.21M | 10.34M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -26.02M | -4.26M | 18.11M | 84.71M | -12.77M | -83.56M |
Covenant Logistics Group Technical Analysis
Positive
21.61
Price Trends
39.84
Positive
34.02
Positive
28.23
Positive
Market Momentum
1.42
Positive
66.67
Neutral
76.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVLG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.28, below the 50-day MA of 39.84, and below the 200-day MA of 28.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVLG.
Covenant Logistics Group Risk Analysis
Covenant Logistics Group disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Covenant Logistics Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Covenant Logistics Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $1.15B | 258.33 | 1.23% | 1.23% | 7.15% | -87.09% | |
58 Neutral | $3.25B | 61.82 | 4.30% | 0.62% | -1.65% | -67.84% | |
57 Neutral | $1.15B | -26.61 | -5.66% | 0.87% | -23.49% | -54.25% | |
55 Neutral | $1.40B | 98.15 | 1.89% | 2.07% | -7.81% | -33.01% | |
54 Neutral | $2.59B | -296.36 | -0.62% | 1.84% | 3.28% | -154.33% | |
44 Neutral | $364.43M | -3.37 | -18.94% | 2.76% | -11.11% | -231.01% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CVLG
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Covenant Logistics Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Covenant Logistics Expands and Extends Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 23, 2026
Effective June 17, 2026, Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. and substantially all of its direct and indirect wholly owned subsidiaries executed a joinder, supplement and Twenty-First Amendment to their Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsShareholder Meetings
Covenant Logistics Adopts 2026 Executive Incentive Plan
Positive
May 15, 2026
On May 13, 2026, Covenant Logistics Group’s board Compensation Committee approved a 2026 Long-Term Incentive Plan for named executives, splitting awards between performance-based restricted stock units and time-vested cash, with CEO David R....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.