Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG)
NYSE:CVLG
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Covenant Logistics Group
(NYSE:CVLG)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(66.59% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/27/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial resilience (notably the much stronger balance sheet and solid operating cash flow), but is held back by pronounced margin/return compression and volatile free cash flow. Technically, the stock is in a clear uptrend but appears overextended on momentum indicators, while valuation is a key headwind given the high P/E and modest yield. Earnings-call commentary supports a gradual improvement narrative, but acknowledges meaningful near-term cost and execution risks.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet / Leverage improvement
A material reduction in reported debt materially strengthens financial flexibility, lowering interest and covenant risk and increasing capacity to fund operations, opportunistic capital deployment, or weather freight cycles. This durable de-risking supports multi-quarter resilience and strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Margin compression and weak returns
Sharp, persistent erosion in margins and returns signals structural pressure on pricing, cost absorption and returns on invested capital. Low net margin and depressed ROE reduce reinvestment capacity and make earnings growth more sensitive to input cost swings over the coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet / Leverage improvement
A material reduction in reported debt materially strengthens financial flexibility, lowering interest and covenant risk and increasing capacity to fund operations, opportunistic capital deployment, or weather freight cycles. This durable de-risking supports multi-quarter resilience and strategic optionality.
Read all positive factors
Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$874.21M
Dividend Yield1.23%
Average Volume (3M)101.65K
Price to Earnings (P/E)38.5
Beta (1Y)1.22
Revenue Growth7.15%
EPS Growth-87.09%
CountryUS
Employees3,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryTrucking
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding20,392,178
10 Day Avg. Volume78,408
30 Day Avg. Volume101,648
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.96
Price to Book (P/B)1.36
Price to Sales (P/S)0.47
P/FCF Ratio-16.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.39
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$35.00Price Target Upside61.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.22B
Covenant Logistics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing. The Expedited segment p...
How the Company Makes Money
Covenant Logistics Group makes money by selling transportation capacity and logistics services to shippers under a mix of contract and transactional arrangements. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Dedicated contract carriage: multi-year o...
Covenant Logistics Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue By Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability for the company.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, highlighting which areas drive growth and profitability for the company.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCovenant Logistics Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed cautious optimism: there are clear top-line and balance-sheet positives (revenue up 15.9%, net debt reduced by ~$51M, stronger pipeline and early Q2 demand improvement) and operational wins in Dedicated, Managed Freight and Warehouse revenue growth. However, near-term profitability is pressured (consolidated adjusted operating income down 11.5%, Expedited adjusted operating ratio 99.1%, ROIC down to 5%), with material headwinds from weather, fuel, driver pay inflation, elevated brokerage costs and equipment cost/timing that could offset some rate improvements. Management expects sequential quarterly improvement through 2026 but acknowledges several risks that temper near-term margin recovery.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated freight revenue increased 15.9% year-over-year (≈$38.7M) to $281.9M in Q1 2026, driven in part by assets acquired in Q4 2025 (operating as Star Logistics Solutions).
Negative Updates
Adjusted Operating Income Decline
Consolidated adjusted operating income fell 11.5% year-over-year to $9.6M in Q1 2026, primarily due to margin compression in the Expedited segment driven by weather and higher fuel costs.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue Growth
Consolidated freight revenue increased 15.9% year-over-year (≈$38.7M) to $281.9M in Q1 2026, driven in part by assets acquired in Q4 2025 (operating as Star Logistics Solutions).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Covenant guided that 2026 should be a transition year with sequential quarterly improvement as rate and lane gains secured in Q1 begin to show up in Q2, citing Q1 consolidated freight revenue up 15.9% (~$38.7M) to $281.9M while consolidated adjusted operating income fell 11.5% to $9.6M; net indebtedness fell ~ $51M to $245.3M (adjusted leverage ~1.8x; debt-to-capital 37.6%), average tractor age rose to 26 months from 20 months, and trailing-4-quarter ROA was 5% versus 7.6% a year ago. Segment targets and metrics include Expedited adjusted operating ratio of 99.1% (with line-of-sight to sequential improvement), Dedicated 95.5% (improved from 98.1%) with a goal to restore double‑digit adjusted operating margins, Managed Freight aiming for mid-single‑digit adjusted operating margin, Warehouse revenue +14.6% with a target of high‑single‑digit margin, and TEL contribution of $3.7M pretax; they warned equipment deliveries could modestly raise leverage, expect $7k–$10k average new truck cost increases, see used equipment markets bottoming, and signaled driver‑pay pressure (mid‑single‑digits, possibly high single‑digits) that may consume roughly 30–40% of early rate increases (leaving ~60–70% to flow to the bottom absent other inflation).Covenant Logistics Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.16B | 1.13B | 1.10B | 1.22B | 1.05B |
| Gross Profit | 93.31M | 189.65M | 164.20M | 185.99M | 147.28M |
| EBITDA | 116.87M | 146.00M | 150.15M | 137.87M | 117.24M |
| Net Income | 7.24M | 35.92M | 55.23M | 108.68M | 60.73M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.10B | 997.57M | 954.44M | 796.64M | 651.66M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 296.30M | 35.62M | 2.29M | 68.67M | 8.41M |
| Total Debt | 338.70M | 296.89M | 293.46M | 179.63M | 74.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 694.33M | 559.23M | 551.02M | 419.52M | 301.96M |
| Stockholders Equity | 404.00M | 438.34M | 403.42M | 377.13M | 349.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -33.92M | -30.07M | -132.77M | 58.76M | 37.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 113.65M | 122.89M | 84.84M | 159.23M | 73.22M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -140.06M | -107.67M | -235.92M | -86.21M | 10.34M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.26M | 18.11M | 84.71M | -12.77M | -83.56M |
Covenant Logistics Group Technical Analysis
Positive
21.61
Price Trends
27.82
Positive
25.66
Positive
24.04
Positive
Market Momentum
0.66
Negative
68.84
Neutral
81.70
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVLG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.81, below the 50-day MA of 27.82, and below the 200-day MA of 24.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CVLG.
Covenant Logistics Group Risk Analysis
Covenant Logistics Group disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Covenant Logistics Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Covenant Logistics Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $2.83B | -529.70 | 4.30% | 0.62% | -1.65% | -67.84% | |
59 Neutral | $874.21M | 38.52 | 1.23% | 1.23% | 7.15% | -87.09% | |
59 Neutral | $635.04M | -4.00 | -16.52% | 2.76% | -15.58% | -176.83% | |
56 Neutral | $1.22B | 193.61 | 1.89% | 2.07% | -7.81% | -33.01% | |
55 Neutral | $1.03B | -41.77 | -5.66% | 0.87% | -23.49% | -54.25% | |
54 Neutral | $2.18B | -103.35 | -0.62% | 1.84% | 3.28% | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
CVLG
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Covenant Logistics Group Corporate Events
Dividends
Covenant Logistics Declares Quarterly Dividend, Signals Ongoing Confidence
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Covenant Logistics Group’s board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.07 per share on its Class A and Class B common stock. The dividend, made under an existing quarterly dividend program, will be paid o...
Other
Covenant Logistics CEO Plans Partial Stock Stake Sale
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. disclosed that Chairman and CEO David Parker and his wife Jacqueline Parker plan to dispose of approximately $15 million worth of the company’s Class A common stock at recent trading prices. The planned sale, r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.