Covenant Logistics Group (CVLG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $644.25M
• Dividend Yield: 1.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 100.92K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.30
• Revenue Growth: 0.75%
• EPS Growth: -15.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Trucking
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 21,855,879
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 82,106
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 100,925
• PEG Ratio: -0.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.63
• P/FCF Ratio: -23.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.59
• 1Y Price Target: $28.00
• Price Target Upside: 15.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(7.17% Upside)

Covenant Logistics Group's overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with manageable debt and a solid equity base. However, modest profitability and cash flow challenges weigh on the score. Technical analysis and valuation suggest a neutral outlook, while the earnings call highlights both growth opportunities and ongoing challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

CVLG's second quarter results exceeded forecasts due to steady business operations and higher than expected TEL estimates.

Shareholder Value

The decision to increase buybacks reflects positively on CVLG's valuation strategy.

Negative Factors

Market Conditions

Increasing competitive pressure in the dedicated segment is affecting growth as CVLG opts out of certain business opportunities.

Operational Challenges

Expedited OR of 93.9% fell short of the estimate by 90bps, with the top line also slightly underperforming expectations.

Covenant Logistics Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation and logistics services in the United States. It operates through four segments: Expedited, Dedicated, Managed Freight, and Warehousing. The Expedited segment primarily provides truckload services with high service freight and delivery standards, such as 1,000 miles in 22 hours or 15-minute delivery windows. The Dedicated segment provides customers with committed truckload capacity over contracted periods using equipment either owned or leased by the company. The Managed Freight segment offers brokerage services, including logistics capacity by outsourcing the carriage of customers' freight to third parties; and transport management services, such as logistics services on a contractual basis to customers who prefer to outsource their logistics needs. The Warehousing segment provides day-to-day warehouse management services to customers. The segment also provides shuttle and switching services to shuttling containers and trailers. The company also engages in used equipment sales and leasing business. It serves transportation companies, such as parcel freight forwarders, less-than-truckload carriers, and third-party logistics providers; and traditional truckload customers, including manufacturers, retailers, and food and beverage shippers. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 2,291 tractors and 5,331 trailers. The company was formerly known as Covenant Transportation Group, Inc. and changed its name to Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. in July 2020. Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is based in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Covenant Logistics Group generates revenue primarily through its transportation services, which include truckload and dedicated freight services. The company earns money by charging customers for the movement of goods, utilizing its fleet of trucks and drivers. Key revenue streams include spot market freight, contracted freight services, and logistics management services. Additionally, CVLG benefits from strategic partnerships with various shippers and suppliers, which enhance its service offerings and improve operational efficiency. The company may also leverage technology and data analytics to optimize routes and reduce costs, further contributing to its earnings.

Covenant Logistics Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Covenant Logistics Group demonstrates stable financial health with manageable debt levels and a solid equity base. However, modest net profitability and liquidity challenges due to high capital expenditures indicate areas for improvement.

Income Statement

The income statement shows mixed results. The TTM gross profit margin is approximately 15.0%, indicating reasonable cost management. However, the net profit margin stands at 3.4%, reflecting modest net profitability. Revenue growth is inconsistent, with a decline from 2022 to 2023, but a small recovery in 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved slightly in the recent TTM, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63 in the TTM, suggesting manageable leverage. The return on equity is around 8.7%, which is moderate. The equity ratio of 45.3% in the TTM points to a solid equity base, supporting financial stability.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement highlights challenges with free cash flow, which is negative in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 3.3, indicating strong cash generation relative to profits. However, free cash flow to net income is negative, reflecting high capital expenditures impacting liquidity.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.12B	1.13B	1.10B	1.22B	1.05B	838.56M
Gross Profit	168.37M	189.65M	164.20M	185.99M	147.28M	109.55M
EBITDA	146.82M	146.00M	150.15M	105.55M	78.14M	55.40M
Net Income	38.51M	35.92M	55.23M	108.68M	60.73M	-14.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	979.97M	997.57M	954.44M	796.64M	651.66M	676.72M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.24M	35.62M	2.29M	68.67M	8.41M	8.41M
Total Debt	278.17M	296.89M	293.46M	179.63M	74.25M	111.59M
Total Liabilities	536.33M	559.23M	551.02M	419.52M	301.96M	386.07M
Stockholders Equity	443.64M	438.34M	403.42M	377.13M	349.70M	290.64M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-12.00M	-30.07M	-132.77M	58.76M	37.93M	-31.01M
Operating Cash Flow	126.02M	122.89M	84.84M	159.23M	73.22M	63.04M
Investing Cash Flow	-88.27M	-107.67M	-235.92M	-86.21M	10.34M	138.05M
Financing Cash Flow	-29.46M	18.11M	84.71M	-12.77M	-83.56M	-236.27M

Covenant Logistics Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 24.26
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CVLG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.18, above the 50-day MA of 24.08, and below the 200-day MA of 24.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CVLG.

Covenant Logistics Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ARCB	69 Neutral	$1.67B	10.93	12.50%	0.65%	-6.42%	25.72%
CVLG	66 Neutral	$644.25M	18.57	8.58%	1.03%	0.75%	-15.76%
ULH	64 Neutral	$649.81M	10.65	9.67%	1.62%	-5.55%	-52.21%
WERN	61 Neutral	$1.69B	33.05	3.65%	1.98%	-6.43%	-13.76%
MRTN	58 Neutral	$989.66M	47.31	2.72%	2.01%	-11.77%	-52.06%
Sector *	58 Neutral	HK$13.63B	5.51	-2.78%	5.72%	2.29%	-57.50%
HTLD	44 Neutral	$643.26M	―	-4.42%	0.95%	-16.42%	-49.44%

Covenant Logistics Group Corporate Events

Covenant Logistics Announces New Accounting Officer

On August 11, 2025, Matisse Long resigned as the Chief Accounting Officer of Covenant Logistics Group, Inc., and the Board of Directors appointed James ‘Tripp’ S. Grant as the new principal accounting officer, effective immediately. Additionally, on August 12, 2025, the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.07 per share for Class A and Class B common stock, payable on September 26, 2025, to stockholders of record as of September 5, 2025, continuing a previously approved dividend program.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVLG) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Covenant Logistics Group stock, see the CVLG Stock Forecast page.

Covenant Logistics Group Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting

On May 14, 2025, Covenant Logistics Group held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where four proposals were voted on, including the election of directors, approval of executive compensation, ratification of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent accounting firm, and an amendment to increase authorized shares. The board also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.07 per share for Class A and B common stock, payable on June 27, 2025, to stockholders of record on June 6, 2025, as part of a previously approved dividend program.

The most recent analyst rating on (CVLG) stock is a Buy with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Covenant Logistics Group stock, see the CVLG Stock Forecast page.