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Redwood Trust (RWT)
NYSE:RWT
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Redwood (RWT) AI Stock Analysis

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RWT

Redwood

(NYSE:RWT)

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Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(3.00% Upside)
Redwood's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its challenging financial performance, characterized by high leverage and negative cash flows. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, further weighing on the score. While the high dividend yield offers some valuation appeal, the negative P/E ratio reflects ongoing profitability issues. The earnings call provided a balanced view, highlighting both achievements and challenges.
Positive Factors
Record Loan Origination
Achieving record loan origination amid a subdued market demonstrates Redwood's strong operational capabilities and market positioning, which can drive sustained revenue growth.
Strategic Partnerships
Expanding strategic partnerships enhances Redwood's financial flexibility and access to capital, supporting long-term growth and investment opportunities.
Core Segment Performance
Consistent high returns in core segments indicate strong operational efficiency and profitability, which are crucial for long-term financial health and shareholder value.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage poses financial risks, limiting flexibility and increasing vulnerability to market fluctuations, which can impact long-term stability and growth.
Negative Cash Flows
Negative cash flows highlight inefficiencies in cash generation, potentially constraining Redwood's ability to invest in growth opportunities and service debt.
Legacy Asset Challenges
Ongoing challenges with legacy assets can drag on profitability and capital efficiency, hindering Redwood's ability to fully capitalize on new growth opportunities.

Redwood (RWT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Redwood Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRedwood Trust, Inc. (RWT) is a financial company that operates in the real estate investment sector. It focuses on investing in and managing a diverse portfolio of residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities, loans, and other real estate-related assets. The company provides capital to the housing market by purchasing loans and securities and is known for its expertise in credit analysis and risk management.
How the Company Makes MoneyRedwood Trust, Inc. makes money primarily through the acquisition and management of residential and commercial real estate loans and securities. The company generates revenue from interest income on its portfolio of loans and mortgage-backed securities. Additionally, Redwood Trust earns money through the sale and securitization of mortgage loans, where it packages and sells loans to investors, generating fees and income. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with financial institutions and other investors to enhance its investment opportunities and revenue streams.

Redwood Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 29, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects significant achievements in loan origination and strategic partnerships, with robust performance in core segments. However, the company faces challenges from legacy assets and reported a GAAP net loss. The sentiment is balanced between positive operational growth and the need to address legacy issues.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Loan Origination
Redwood Trust originated nearly $7 billion of loans in Q3, setting a new quarterly record amid a subdued housing market. Sequoia locked $5.1 billion, Aspire $1.2 billion, and CoreVest $521 million.
Sequoia Growth
Sequoia launched $5.1 billion of loans in Q3, a 53% increase from Q2, achieving a record for the platform and expanding its market share significantly.
Aspire Platform Expansion
Aspire locked $1.2 billion in Q3, nearly 4x the volume of Q2, indicating strong growth potential and a focus on well-underwritten loans with high credit scores and LTVs.
Strong Core Segment Performance
The mortgage banking segments maintained ROEs above 20% for 5 consecutive quarters, with a core segment's EAD of $0.20 per share in Q3.
Expanded CPP Investments Partnership
Redwood expanded its relationship with CPP Investments, increasing the borrowing facility from $250 million to $400 million.
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Loss
Reported a GAAP net loss of $9.5 million or $0.08 per share, primarily due to transaction-related expenses and net interest income drag from legacy investments.
Book Value Decline
Book value per share declined from $7.49 to $7.35, affected by legacy transition noise and dividends paid.
Legacy Asset Challenges
Continued reduction in legacy exposure, which still accounts for 25% of capital, contributing to negative returns in the consolidated results.
Lower Investment ROE
Redwood Investments saw a decline in EAD ROE from 16% to 10% quarter-over-quarter due to lower NII and asset sales.
Company Guidance
During the Redwood Trust Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call, the company provided several key metrics and insights into its strategic transition and operational performance. Redwood Trust achieved a record loan origination of nearly $7 billion, including $5.1 billion at Sequoia and $1.2 billion at Aspire. The company set a target to reduce its legacy exposure from 33% to 20% of capital by year-end and has already reduced it to 25%. They reported a core segments EAD of $0.20 per share, maintaining mortgage banking segment ROEs above 20% for five consecutive quarters. The company expanded its corporate secured borrowing facility from $250 million to $400 million, reflecting strong operational and financial momentum. Despite a GAAP net loss of $9.5 million, Redwood continues to focus on scaling its core platforms and has redeployed $150 million of capital into higher-return opportunities. The GAAP book value per share declined slightly to $7.34, accounting for a $0.18 per share dividend and stock repurchases. As the company progresses with its strategic goals, it remains optimistic about the housing finance sector's growth in the year ahead.

Redwood Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Redwood faces a challenging financial landscape with declining revenues, high leverage, and negative cash flows. While there are some operational efficiencies, the overall financial health is under strain, necessitating strategic improvements to enhance profitability and reduce financial risk.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows a challenging environment for Redwood, with declining revenue growth and negative net profit margins in the TTM period. The gross profit margin remains strong, but the negative net income indicates profitability issues. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are positive, suggesting some operational efficiency, but the overall financial performance is under pressure.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Redwood's balance sheet reflects high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio significantly above industry norms, indicating potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is low, suggesting limited financial stability. Overall, the balance sheet indicates a need for improved financial management.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
The cash flow statement reveals significant negative operating and free cash flows, indicating liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is highly negative, reflecting inefficiencies in converting income to cash. Despite a positive free cash flow growth rate in the TTM period, the overall cash flow position remains weak.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue212.73M998.79M158.60M-22.10M539.60M-318.03M
Gross Profit175.97M208.91M136.86M-41.82M517.62M-330.76M
EBITDA974.36M927.31M0.00398.85M800.74M-30.75M
Net Income-88.47M54.00M-2.27M-163.52M319.61M-581.85M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets22.60B18.26B14.50B13.03B14.71B10.36B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments226.32M456.64M347.74M388.05M656.79M679.46M
Total Debt0.0016.77B12.84B11.50B13.07B8.85B
Total Liabilities21.60B17.07B13.30B11.95B13.32B9.24B
Stockholders Equity999.01M1.19B1.20B1.08B1.39B1.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-11.66B-5.86B-2.02B-139.14M-5.69B-505.47M
Operating Cash Flow-11.66B-5.86B-2.02B-139.14M-5.69B-505.47M
Investing Cash Flow5.51B2.54B908.72M213.89M1.40B4.07B
Financing Cash Flow6.28B3.27B1.15B-276.87M4.28B-3.31B

Redwood Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price5.34
Price Trends
50DMA
5.69
Negative
100DMA
5.72
Negative
200DMA
5.64
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.13
Positive
RSI
43.87
Neutral
STOCH
26.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RWT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.43, below the 50-day MA of 5.69, and below the 200-day MA of 5.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RWT.

Redwood Risk Analysis

Redwood disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Redwood reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Redwood Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
64
Neutral
$698.09M13.695.87%10.73%-10.86%-5.90%
62
Neutral
$947.35M10.896.90%15.26%5.52%-47.72%
56
Neutral
$801.38M12.305.88%14.07%-0.93%-1.92%
54
Neutral
$527.14M-0.16%12.08%-24.37%-19.19%
45
Neutral
$669.38M-9.19%13.74%34.68%-251.91%
41
Neutral
$483.12M-14.78%21.85%-43.56%-166.72%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RWT
Redwood
5.34
-0.93
-14.83%
MFA
MFA Financial
9.37
-0.26
-2.70%
RC
Ready Capital
2.86
-3.50
-55.03%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
8.28
-2.26
-21.44%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
9.07
1.16
14.66%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
10.09
-1.41
-12.26%

Redwood Corporate Events

Redwood Trust Reports Record Mortgage Banking Growth
Oct 30, 2025

Redwood Trust, Inc. is a specialty finance company that focuses on providing liquidity to segments of the U.S. housing market through securitization platforms, whole-loan distribution, and joint ventures, operating primarily as a real estate investment trust (REIT).

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Redwood Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results and Strategic Shift
Neutral
Oct 29, 2025

On October 29, 2025, Redwood Trust, Inc. announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting record production volumes and a strategic transition to a core operating model. The company reported a GAAP net loss of $9.5 million, driven by one-time expenses related to legacy investments, but achieved record mortgage banking production of $6.8 billion. Redwood also executed capital management initiatives, including the transfer of $1 billion in legacy investments and the repurchase of five million shares, while expanding its partnership with CPP Investments to support platform growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (RWT) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwood stock, see the RWT Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Redwood Expands Partnership with Canada Pension Plan
Positive
Oct 29, 2025

On October 28, 2025, Redwood Trust, Inc. announced an expansion of its strategic partnership with Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. This includes extending the joint venture commitment period to September 2028, increasing the secured revolving financing facility to $400 million, and amending warrants issued in March 2024 to extend their expiration and adjust the exercise price. These moves are expected to enhance Redwood’s operational flexibility and strengthen its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (RWT) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwood stock, see the RWT Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
Redwood Trust Declares Q3 2025 Dividends
Positive
Sep 11, 2025

On September 11, 2025, Redwood Trust, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared dividends for the third quarter of 2025. The common stock dividend remains at $0.18 per share, marking the company’s 105th consecutive quarterly dividend, while the Series A preferred stock dividend is set at $0.625 per share. These dividends reflect Redwood’s strong operating volumes and improved investor sentiment, positioning the company to continue delivering value to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (RWT) stock is a Hold with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwood stock, see the RWT Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Redwood Issues $50M Convertible Senior Notes
Neutral
Aug 25, 2025

On August 25, 2025, Redwood Trust, Inc. issued $50 million in 7.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027, expanding its existing series of notes originally issued in 2022 and 2024. This issuance increases the total outstanding notes to $297.17 million, providing the company with additional unsecured obligations that rank equally with its other senior unsecured debts. The notes offer conversion options and redemption rights, allowing the company flexibility in managing its financial obligations and maintaining its REIT status, with implications for stakeholders regarding potential conversions and redemptions based on stock performance and market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (RWT) stock is a Hold with a $5.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwood stock, see the RWT Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Redwood Updates REIT Tax Considerations with SEC
Neutral
Aug 22, 2025

On March 3, 2025, Redwood Trust, Inc. filed a Registration Statement with the SEC, updating its U.S. federal income tax considerations related to its REIT status and securities offerings. The filing includes an opinion from Latham & Watkins LLP confirming Redwood’s compliance with REIT tax requirements since 2011, though future compliance depends on meeting specific operational and ownership criteria. The company aims to maintain its REIT status, which allows it to avoid double taxation by distributing taxable income to shareholders, but it faces potential tax liabilities on undistributed income and certain transactions.

The most recent analyst rating on (RWT) stock is a Hold with a $5.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwood stock, see the RWT Stock Forecast page.

Redwood Trust’s Earnings Call: Strategic Shift Amid Challenges
Aug 1, 2025

The recent earnings call of Redwood Trust revealed a strategic shift towards a more focused and scalable business model. While the company showcased strong performance in its core mortgage banking operations and aggressive capital reallocation efforts, it also faced significant financial challenges. The repositioning charges and legacy asset issues led to a notable net loss and a decline in book value, reflecting a mixed sentiment during the call.

Redwood Trust’s Strategic Shift and Q2 2025 Results
Jul 31, 2025

Redwood Trust, Inc. is a specialty finance company that focuses on providing liquidity to segments of the U.S. housing market not well served by government programs, operating through platforms like Sequoia, Aspire, and CoreVest. In its second quarter of 2025, Redwood Trust reported a significant shift towards a more scalable operating model, highlighting an increase in share repurchase authorization to $150 million. The company is actively winding down its legacy portfolio holdings, aiming to generate up to $250 million of incremental capital by the end of 2025. Key financial metrics revealed a GAAP net loss of $100.2 million, primarily driven by legacy investments, while the mortgage banking platforms continued to show profitability with a combined GAAP return above 20% for four consecutive quarters. Redwood Trust’s forward-looking strategy focuses on reallocating capital to high-performing platforms and enhancing shareholder value through strategic partnerships and stock repurchases.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Redwood Announces Q2 2025 Financial Results
Negative
Jul 30, 2025

On July 30, 2025, Redwood Trust, Inc. announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting an accelerated transition to a scalable operating model and an increased share repurchase authorization to $150 million. The company is reallocating capital from legacy investments to high-performing platforms, aiming to unlock long-term earnings potential and enhance shareholder value, despite reporting a GAAP net loss of $100.2 million for the quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (RWT) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Redwood stock, see the RWT Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2025