Kkr Real Estate Finance (KREF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $423.60M
• Dividend Yield: 11.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: -24.37%
• EPS Growth: -19.19%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 64,275,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,470,897
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,315,168
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 11.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 10.99
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 12.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 18.31
• 1Y Price Target: $8.33
• Price Target Upside: 27.18% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $114.53M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.50 ▼(-0.76% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/06/26

KREF scores below average primarily due to deteriorating profitability and elevated leverage, reinforced by bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative momentum). Offsetting factors include resilient cash generation, strong liquidity and financing flexibility discussed on the call, and a very high dividend yield—though dividend uncertainty limits the benefit.

Positive Factors

Liquidity & Financing Capacity

A large liquidity cushion and substantial undrawn financing materially reduce refinancing and short‑term liquidity risk. With no final facility maturities until 2027 and diversified secured funding, KREF can execute its remediation and originations strategy without immediate funding stress, supporting stability during a multi‑quarter portfolio transition.

Resilient Cash Generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provides a durable buffer versus volatile GAAP earnings. Reliable cash generation supports debt servicing, selective buybacks, and funding for workouts and new originations, enabling management to deleverage or reallocate capital over several quarters without immediately impairing core operations.

Portfolio Diversification & Originations Mix

Geographic expansion into Europe combined with a structural tilt toward multifamily and industrial collateral improves portfolio diversification and liquidity of underlying assets. These sectors are typically more resilient in downturns, reducing concentration risk and improving the long‑term ability to originate, hedge, and monetize assets across cycles.

Negative Factors

Revenue & Profitability Decline

Sharp, persistent declines in revenue and a return to sizable net losses materially weaken the company’s core earning power. Lower interest spread capture and diminished fee income reduce distributable earnings and impede internal capital generation, forcing greater reliance on balance‑sheet actions or external capital to sustain lending and dividends over the medium term.

Elevated Leverage & Balance‑Sheet Contraction

Historically high leverage—even with some 2024 improvement—limits financial flexibility to absorb further losses and increases sensitivity to interest rate and funding shocks. Asset contraction alongside elevated leverage heightens the probability of asset sales or capital raises if earnings remain pressured, constraining strategic options during portfolio remediation.

Concentrated Life‑Science Credit Risk

Material exposure to life‑science loans that may require multi‑year recoveries raises the risk of extended non‑performing assets and significant principal concessions. Protracted resolution timelines can depress yields, increase loss provisions, and erode book value, constraining capital recycling and lending capacity for years rather than quarters.

Kkr Real Estate Finance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, focuses primarily on originating and acquiring senior loans secured by commercial real estate (CRE) assets. It engages in the origination and purchase of credit investments related to CRE, including leveraged and unleveraged commercial mortgage loans, and commercial mortgage-backed securities. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

KREF makes money primarily by earning net interest income on its investment portfolio. The core revenue stream is interest income from commercial real estate loans (typically first-lien senior mortgages) that it originates or acquires; these loans generate contractual interest payments, which may include floating-rate benchmarks plus a credit spread, and can also include payment-in-kind interest depending on loan terms. KREF’s earnings are driven by (1) the yield it earns on loans and other real estate credit investments, (2) the cost of its financing and hedging, and (3) credit performance (e.g., non-accruals, impairments, and realized/unrealized losses on loan resolutions). A second important source of economics is fee and other income associated with loan origination and structuring. Depending on transaction terms, this can include origination fees, exit fees, extension fees, amendment/consent fees, and other upfront or ongoing charges that are recognized over time or upon specific events (e.g., payoff or modification). KREF can also benefit from prepayment-related economics when borrowers refinance or sell properties and repay loans, which may accelerate the recognition of certain deferred fees. To fund its loan portfolio, KREF uses secured and unsecured financing such as repurchase agreements, credit facilities, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) or similar securitizations, and other forms of leverage. The company’s profitability therefore depends on maintaining a positive spread between asset yields and funding costs, managing maturity/liquidity risk, and effectively using interest-rate hedges to reduce earnings volatility. Market conditions—commercial real estate valuations, property cash flows, transaction activity, and interest-rate levels—affect both loan origination volumes and the pricing of new loans. KREF is externally managed by a KKR affiliate, which provides investment management and operational support; in exchange, KREF pays management fees and may pay incentive fees under its management agreement, which reduce net income available to shareholders but can also be a factor in sourcing (through KKR’s relationships) and portfolio management capabilities. Significant factors contributing to earnings include origination pipeline access, underwriting and asset-management execution (including workouts on stressed loans), the mix of floating vs. fixed-rate assets and liabilities, and overall credit conditions in commercial real estate.

Kkr Real Estate Finance Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: cash flow is a relative strength (positive operating and free cash flow across periods, with a modest 2025 rebound), but the income statement deteriorated sharply with revenue down materially and a return to a sizable net loss in 2025. Leverage remains elevated despite some improvement, increasing downside risk if earnings remain pressured.

Income Statement

Revenue has weakened materially, with a sharp decline in 2024 (-13%) followed by a much steeper drop in 2025 (-46%). Profitability is also volatile: the company moved from a profit in 2024 ($35.6M net income) back to a sizable loss in 2025 (-$69.9M). Earlier years show it can be profitable (notably 2020–2022), but the recent trajectory points to pressured earnings power and lower consistency.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has been high for most of the period, with debt-to-equity typically around ~3.7x to ~4.3x (2020–2023), improving to ~2.9x in 2024. Total assets have also trended down from 2022–2024, suggesting balance-sheet contraction. Equity remains meaningful ($1.17B–$1.57B historically), but the combination of elevated leverage and recent losses increases risk, even with some deleveraging evident in 2024.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is comparatively steadier than earnings: operating cash flow has remained positive each year provided, and free cash flow is also positive throughout. While free cash flow declined in 2024 (-19%), it rebounded modestly in 2025 (+4%). Overall, cash flow resiliency is a strength, though the downshift in 2024 and weaker profitability in 2025 suggest coverage could tighten if operating conditions remain pressured.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	457.96M	592.62M	660.19M	436.51M	285.76M
Gross Profit	404.40M	543.02M	620.34M	399.08M	256.11M
EBITDA	274.92M	448.47M	427.86M	273.75M	252.31M
Net Income	-47.05M	35.59M	-30.85M	38.10M	137.18M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.46B	6.35B	7.55B	7.80B	6.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	84.62M	104.93M	135.90M	239.79M	271.49M
Total Debt	4.69B	4.90B	6.06B	6.16B	5.29B
Total Liabilities	5.24B	4.95B	6.14B	6.23B	5.34B
Stockholders Equity	1.17B	1.35B	1.40B	1.57B	1.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	66.70M	124.46M	153.85M	139.46M	124.79M
Operating Cash Flow	72.28M	132.56M	155.72M	141.13M	124.79M
Investing Cash Flow	264.29M	1.12B	13.49M	-1.18B	-1.54B
Financing Cash Flow	-355.78M	-1.29B	-271.51M	1.01B	1.58B

Kkr Real Estate Finance Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.55
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KREF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.95, below the 50-day MA of 7.54, and below the 200-day MA of 8.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KREF.

Kkr Real Estate Finance Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
TRTX	59 Neutral	$626.05M	11.32	5.52%	10.48%	-10.86%	-5.90%
FBRT	54 Neutral	$720.60M	9.99	5.60%	13.31%	-0.93%	-1.92%
RWT	52 Neutral	$728.69M	-8.93	-5.86%	13.13%	34.68%	-251.91%
KREF	49 Neutral	$423.60M	-11.67	-3.80%	11.33%	-24.37%	-19.19%
RC	49 Neutral	$283.41M	-1.57	-12.90%	26.82%	-43.56%	-166.72%
CMTG	43 Neutral	$322.50M	-0.88	-19.24%	―	-65.32%	-325.73%