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Kkr Real Estate Finance
(NYSE:KREF)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(19.58% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/22/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (revenue contraction, recurring losses, and leverage sensitivity), partially offset by continued positive cash generation. Technicals are a clear positive with improving trend and momentum. Valuation is mixed (very high yield but negative P/E), and the earnings call points to credible stabilization actions backed by liquidity, but with significant near-term credit losses, book value pressure, and a reduced dividend.
Positive Factors
Strong liquidity and financing availability
Substantial liquidity and large undrawn financing capacity give KREF durable funding flexibility to withstand credit stress, finance new originations as legacy loans repay, and avoid near-term forced asset sales. This buffer materially lengthens the runway for portfolio repositioning and loss absorption.
Negative Factors
High leverage with negative profitability
Elevated leverage amplifies earnings and credit volatility; with recurring GAAP losses and negative margins, the capital structure limits resilience to further credit deterioration. This structural sensitivity increases likelihood of capital actions if credit losses persist, constraining strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong liquidity and financing availability
Substantial liquidity and large undrawn financing capacity give KREF durable funding flexibility to withstand credit stress, finance new originations as legacy loans repay, and avoid near-term forced asset sales. This buffer materially lengthens the runway for portfolio repositioning and loss absorption.
Read all positive factors
Kkr Real Estate Finance (KREF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$491.04M
Dividend Yield11.47%
Average Volume (3M)922.59K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth-19.57%
EPS Growth-397.76%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.28
Shares Outstanding64,300,415
10 Day Avg. Volume932,628
30 Day Avg. Volume922,586
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.47
Price to Sales (P/S)1.20
P/FCF Ratio8.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.17Price Target Upside7.13% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)$105.00M
Kkr Real Estate Finance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (KREF) operates as a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT), primarily focused on originating and acquiring first-lien debt secured by commercial properties. Its investment strategy includes a range of comm...
How the Company Makes Money
KREF makes money primarily through net interest income generated on its investment portfolio. It originates or acquires commercial real estate loans (typically senior, floating-rate mortgages) and earns interest based on the contractual coupon/spr...
Kkr Real Estate Finance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call communicates a balanced but transitional outlook: management is taking decisive actions to resolve watch list assets, reduce legacy office exposure, monetize REO (notably Mountain View), and redeploy into newer, higher-quality vintages supported by substantial liquidity and a $75M buyback authorization. These positive strategic moves are tempered by meaningful near-term headwinds — a $62M GAAP loss, a 9% quarter decline in book value, a sizable $74M CECL provision, an expected ~$37M realized loss on a life science asset, and an announced dividend cut — which are likely to depress distributable earnings through late 2026 and into 2027. Overall, the company presents a credible path to stabilization but faces near-term pain as it executes the transition.Positive Updates
Strong Liquidity and Financing Availability
Reported liquidity of $653 million at quarter-end (including $135M cash and $500M undrawn revolver) with total financing availability of $7.2 billion (including $2.6B undrawn capacity); management expects over $500M of capital to invest driven by ~ $2 billion of expected repayments in 2026.
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Loss and Book Value Decline
Reported GAAP net loss of $62 million (negative $0.96 per share) for Q1 and book value per share declined 9% during the quarter to $11.87 per share, reflecting mark downs taken while repositioning the portfolio.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Liquidity and Financing Availability
Reported liquidity of $653 million at quarter-end (including $135M cash and $500M undrawn revolver) with total financing availability of $7.2 billion (including $2.6B undrawn capacity); management expects over $500M of capital to invest driven by ~ $2 billion of expected repayments in 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management characterized 2026 as a transition year with specific, metric-driven targets: reduce legacy office exposure from 21% to under 10% (over half via par repayments), resolve all watch‑list loans by year‑end, and rotate the portfolio so loans originated 2024–2026 represent ~50% of the portfolio by year‑end; they aim to modify 100% of life‑science exposure (19% modified to date, 30% including the Cambridge asset) and expect Boston life‑science to move to REO in Q2 with an estimated ~$37 million realized loss. Liquidity and financing metrics supporting the plan include $653 million of liquidity (cash $135M, $500M undrawn revolver), $500M+ of unencumbered assets, $7.2 billion total financing availability (including $2.6B undrawn), Q1 originations of $184M and repayments of $415M (≈75% driven by legacy office), and no final facility maturities until 2027 (no corporate debt until 2030); leverage stood at 4.0x total (debt/equity 2.2x). Capital allocation changes: quarterly dividend cut to $0.10 (payable July 15) from the $0.25 paid in April, Board authorization of a $75M share repurchase program, expectation of >$500M of investable capital funded largely by ~$2B of 2026 repayments, an expectation that $0.40/year of dividends can be covered by distributable earnings excluding realized losses (Q1 distributable loss -$0.06/sh; distributable earnings before realized losses $0.20/sh), and an estimate that REO monetizations could generate >$0.15/share of incremental quarterly earnings over time (about half from Mountain View); earnings are expected to trough in H2 2026 into H1 2027 before recovering.Kkr Real Estate Finance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
41
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 348.52M | 457.96M | 592.62M | 660.19M | 436.51M | 285.76M |
| Gross Profit | 304.51M | 404.40M | 543.02M | 620.34M | 399.08M | 256.11M |
| EBITDA | 46.20M | 274.92M | 448.47M | 427.86M | 273.75M | 252.31M |
| Net Income | -184.96M | -47.05M | 35.59M | -30.85M | 38.10M | 137.18M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.56B | 6.46B | 6.35B | 7.55B | 7.80B | 6.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 83.06M | 84.62M | 104.93M | 135.90M | 239.79M | 271.49M |
| Total Debt | 4.31B | 4.69B | 4.90B | 6.06B | 6.16B | 5.29B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.57B | 5.24B | 4.95B | 6.14B | 6.23B | 5.34B |
| Stockholders Equity | 931.77M | 1.17B | 1.35B | 1.40B | 1.57B | 1.36B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 59.32M | 66.70M | 124.46M | 153.85M | 139.46M | 124.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 63.00M | 72.28M | 132.56M | 155.72M | 141.13M | 124.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 667.51M | 264.29M | 1.12B | 13.49M | -1.18B | -1.54B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -333.31M | -355.78M | -1.29B | -271.51M | 1.01B | 1.58B |
Kkr Real Estate Finance Technical Analysis
Positive
6.69
Price Trends
6.88
Positive
6.60
Positive
7.09
Positive
Market Momentum
0.16
Negative
57.15
Neutral
57.95
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KREF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.21, below the 50-day MA of 6.88, and below the 200-day MA of 7.09, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KREF.
Kkr Real Estate Finance Risk Analysis
Kkr Real Estate Finance disclosed 86 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kkr Real Estate Finance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Kkr Real Estate Finance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $671.04M | 13.44 | 6.09% | 10.48% | 0.84% | -8.55% | |
59 Neutral | $613.40M | 15.02 | 4.95% | 13.31% | 5.47% | -22.89% | |
55 Neutral | $491.04M | -2.27 | -8.30% | 11.33% | -19.57% | -397.76% | |
51 Neutral | $629.84M | -6.55 | -9.19% | 13.13% | 16.94% | -469.13% | |
49 Neutral | $318.30M | -0.68 | -28.47% | ― | 106.26% | -86.85% | |
47 Neutral | $254.44M | -0.48 | -31.42% | 26.82% | -56.96% | -78.75% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
7.41
-0.69
-8.56%
RWT
Redwood
5.08
-0.30
-5.63%
RC
Ready Capital
1.52
-2.73
-64.24%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
8.67
1.28
17.38%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
7.86
-1.65
-17.32%
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust
2.29
-1.09
-32.25%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.