Orchid Island Capital (ORC)
NYSE:ORC
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Orchid Island Capital
(NYSE:ORC)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▲(2.88% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/28/26
ORC scores as neutral overall: improved recent profitability and positive cash generation are outweighed by very high leverage and minimal debt coverage, which amplify mortgage-spread and funding risks. Technicals are mixed/neutral, while the very high dividend yield supports the score but is tempered by negative earnings and book-value volatility highlighted on the latest earnings call.
Positive Factors
Portfolio Quality & Liquidity
A 100% agency, highly specified-pool portfolio reduces credit risk and exposure to volatile low-coupon collateral. Combined with a large liquid cushion (~54.5%), this structural positioning supports access to repo markets and provides resilience in funding and reinvestment over the next several months.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Very high leverage amplifies mark-to-market and funding risks typical for mREITs: modest spread widening or adverse repo moves can disproportionately reduce book value and equity. The capital structure leaves limited buffer and heightens refinancing and counterparty concentration vulnerabilities over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Portfolio Quality & Liquidity
A 100% agency, highly specified-pool portfolio reduces credit risk and exposure to volatile low-coupon collateral. Combined with a large liquid cushion (~54.5%), this structural positioning supports access to repo markets and provides resilience in funding and reinvestment over the next several months.
Read all positive factors
Orchid Island Capital (ORC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.44B
Dividend Yield20.03%
Average Volume (3M)6.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth81.33%
EPS Growth86.84%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding200,700,230
10 Day Avg. Volume6,881,393
30 Day Avg. Volume6,868,791
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.67
Price to Sales (P/S)5.15
P/FCF Ratio7.67
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue34.06
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit47.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda41.54
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.14
Revenue Forecast (FY)$137.25M
Orchid Island Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred as Agency RMBS. Its portfol...
How the Company Makes Money
ORC makes money primarily by earning net interest income on a leveraged portfolio of mortgage-backed securities. It purchases RMBS that pay interest and principal cash flows, and funds a significant portion of those holdings with short-term borrow...
Orchid Island Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 15, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mixed but overall constructive picture: meaningful operational and balance-sheet growth, improved funding conditions, disciplined portfolio construction, attractive modeled returns (15%–17% ROE), and durable expense ratio improvements are significant positives. Offsetting these are a quarter with a net loss, a ~6.1% book-value decline during the quarter, spread and prepayment volatility driven in part by geopolitical events, and a one-time spike in speeds in March. Management emphasized opportunistic buying, hedging success, and partial post-quarter recovery in book value. On balance, the positive operational trends, attractive returns, and improved funding/efficiency outweigh the quarter-specific mark-to-market headwinds.Positive Updates
Portfolio and Company Growth
Average portfolio balance grew to approximately $11.0 billion in Q1 from $9.5 billion in Q4, a ~15.8% increase; management noted the company has more than doubled in size over the last 4–5 quarters and shareholders' equity has grown 442% over 10 years (18.4% annualized).
Negative Updates
Net Loss and Earnings Swing
Q1 delivered a net loss of $0.11 per share compared to net income of $0.62 per share in Q4, representing a material quarterly earnings swing and pressure on near-term GAAP results.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Portfolio and Company Growth
Average portfolio balance grew to approximately $11.0 billion in Q1 from $9.5 billion in Q4, a ~15.8% increase; management noted the company has more than doubled in size over the last 4–5 quarters and shareholders' equity has grown 442% over 10 years (18.4% annualized).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance was cautiously constructive: they expect prepayments to moderate from March's 16.3 CPR (street estimates for the prepaid universe down ~15%), which should boost returns that are currently modeled at roughly 15–17% ROE inclusive of hedges at current funding; they will continue opportunistic deployment into production coupons (~5–6% range) while maintaining a highly liquid, 100% agency portfolio (average balance ≈ $11B vs $9.5B in Q4), liquidity at 54.5%, leverage ~7.9%, and ≈92% of assets in specified pools with ≥10‑tick payup. Recent activity: purchased ≈$1.6B of specified pools/TBAs (including $182M of 4.5s, $624M of 5s, $425M of 5.5s, $138M of 6s and $250M of 15‑yr 4.5s) after raising ~$108M in Q1 and $28M in early April; weighted‑average coupon sits near ~5.7%. Hedging/funding guidance: maintain ≈65% hedge coverage of repo, a duration gap of ~0.07 years (net long DV01 ≈ $372k), funding costs ~11–13 bps over SOFR, and management said growth remains accretive (expense ratio down to ~1.7%) while they will reevaluate taxable earnings/dividend policy next year amid the uncertain geopolitical backdrop.Orchid Island Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 339.00M | 179.51M | 54.41M | -20.70M | -241.00M | -49.89M |
| Gross Profit | 240.84M | 175.52M | 54.41M | -20.70M | -243.88M | -49.89M |
| EBITDA | 277.93M | 464.76M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 121.95M | 159.03M | 37.66M | -39.23M | -258.45M | -64.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.67B | 11.68B | 5.72B | 4.26B | 3.87B | 7.07B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 915.23M | 724.56M | 309.33M | 241.03M | 205.65M | 385.14M |
| Total Debt | 11.22B | 10.24B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 11.28B | 10.30B | 5.05B | 3.80B | 3.43B | 6.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.39B | 1.37B | 668.50M | 469.94M | 438.76M | 768.10M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 143.28M | 120.45M | 66.99M | 8.00M | 289.37M | 96.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 143.28M | 120.45M | 66.99M | 8.00M | 289.37M | 96.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.65B | -5.38B | -1.42B | -441.06M | 2.44B | -3.02B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.87B | 5.65B | 1.48B | 396.13M | -2.94B | 3.07B |
Orchid Island Capital Technical Analysis
Negative
7.29
Price Trends
7.15
Negative
7.14
Negative
6.77
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
48.16
Neutral
59.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.01, above the 50-day MA of 7.15, and above the 200-day MA of 6.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ORC.
Orchid Island Capital Risk Analysis
Orchid Island Capital disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Orchid Island Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Orchid Island Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $1.06B | 5.46 | 9.66% | 14.90% | -17.08% | 57.97% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
59 Neutral | $1.65B | 9.19 | 8.54% | 11.37% | 38.10% | -10.75% | |
57 Neutral | $1.44B | -16.67 | 10.87% | 20.03% | 81.33% | 86.84% | |
55 Neutral | $1.05B | 8.54 | 6.79% | 12.69% | 28.71% | -27.87% | |
53 Neutral | $1.14B | 4.43 | 8.85% | 11.40% | 10.43% | 59.94% | |
53 Neutral | $1.16B | ― | -23.93% | 14.29% | -10.44% | -301.75% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
7.13
1.13
18.81%
CIM
Chimera Investment
13.72
2.81
25.78%
EFC
Ellington Financial
13.33
1.59
13.55%
MFA
MFA Financial
10.29
1.78
20.96%
TWO
Two Harbors
11.01
0.14
1.32%
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage
12.21
0.93
8.21%
Orchid Island Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Orchid Island Capital Declares April Dividend, Updates Q1 Metrics
Negative
Apr 16, 2026
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. is a REIT-focused specialty finance firm investing on a leveraged basis in agency mortgage-backed securities, including traditional pass-through and structured RMBS issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae. Exte...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Orchid Island Capital Declares March 2026 Monthly Dividend
Positive
Mar 18, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Orchid Island Capital, Inc., an agency mortgage REIT, declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.12 per common share for March 2026, payable on April 29 to shareholders of record as of March 31, with the same date serving as the ex-...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.