Orchid Island Capital (ORC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.12B
• Dividend Yield: 19.07%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: 97.99%
• EPS Growth: -54.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 146,130,140
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,280,329
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,402,280
• PEG Ratio: -0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.36
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.36
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 27.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 28.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 30.66
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▲(6.52% Upside)

Orchid Island Capital's stock score is driven by its strong valuation and positive earnings call sentiment. However, financial performance concerns, particularly high leverage and low profitability, weigh on the score. Technical analysis indicates bullish momentum, but overbought conditions suggest caution.

Orchid Island Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred as Agency RMBS. Its portfolio includes traditional pass-through Agency RMBS, such as mortgage pass through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations; and structured Agency RMBS comprising interest only securities, inverse interest only securities, and principal only securities. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. Orchid Island Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Orchid Island Capital generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its mortgage-backed securities portfolio. The company invests in both agency RMBS, which are guaranteed by government-sponsored entities, and non-agency RMBS, which are not backed by any government guarantees. The interest income is supplemented by potential capital appreciation of its securities and gains from trading activities. Additionally, the company may utilize leverage to enhance returns on its investments, borrowing against its securities to increase its investment capacity. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and mortgage servicers may also contribute to its earnings, as these relationships can provide access to a broader range of investment opportunities and market insights.

Orchid Island Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Orchid Island Capital shows revenue growth but struggles with profitability and high leverage. The income statement indicates low net profit margins, and the balance sheet reveals significant debt levels, posing financial risks. Cash flow generation is stable but shows signs of slowing growth.

Income Statement

Orchid Island Capital's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 11.66%. However, profitability margins are concerning, with a low net profit margin of 2.14% and a high EBIT margin of 89.62%, indicating potential volatility in earnings. The gross profit margin has improved significantly over the years, but the net income remains low, suggesting challenges in converting revenue into profit.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.30, which is typical for the REIT industry but poses financial risk. The return on equity is low at 0.83%, indicating limited returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 11.98%, reflecting a heavy reliance on debt financing. While the company maintains a significant asset base, the high debt levels could impact financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth, with a negative growth rate of -1.78% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.70, suggesting challenges in converting earnings into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is stable at 1.0, indicating that the company is generating enough cash to cover its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	299.13M	54.41M	154.93M	10.94M	129.16M	91.06M
Gross Profit	287.55M	50.98M	143.72M	-3.60M	119.53M	84.72M
EBITDA	268.08M	273.94M	162.69M	-196.75M	-57.67M	27.18M
Net Income	6.41M	37.66M	-39.23M	-258.45M	-64.76M	2.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.61B	5.72B	4.26B	3.87B	7.07B	4.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	456.33M	409.88M	241.03M	205.65M	450.44M	299.51M
Total Debt	6.66B	5.03B	3.71B	3.38B	6.24B	3.63B
Total Liabilities	6.69B	5.05B	3.80B	3.43B	6.30B	3.64B
Stockholders Equity	911.96M	668.50M	469.94M	438.76M	768.10M	415.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	46.91M	66.99M	8.00M	289.37M	96.44M	55.37M
Operating Cash Flow	46.91M	66.99M	8.00M	289.37M	96.44M	55.37M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.51B	-1.42B	-441.06M	2.44B	-3.02B	-199.34M
Financing Cash Flow	2.67B	1.48B	396.13M	-2.94B	3.07B	164.82M

Orchid Island Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.51
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.31, above the 50-day MA of 7.08, and above the 200-day MA of 6.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ORC.

Orchid Island Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	―	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ORC	―	$1.12B	15.76	7.02%	19.07%	97.99%	-54.02%
EFC	―	$1.34B	11.02	8.81%	11.67%	20.32%	1.58%
CIM	―	$1.06B	10.41	7.32%	11.37%	4.83%	-25.07%
MFA	―	$932.23M	10.38	6.90%	15.75%	-7.70%	40.36%
PMT	―	$1.10B	13.71	6.38%	12.70%	-17.98%	-36.27%
TWO	―	$1.02B	-3.94	-9.69%	16.60%	22.79%	50.49%

Orchid Island Capital Corporate Events

Orchid Island Capital Announces Equity Distribution Agreement

On October 27, 2025, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. announced an equity distribution agreement with several sales agents, allowing the company to offer and sell up to $500 million of its common stock through at-the-market offerings. This strategic move provides Orchid Island Capital with the flexibility to raise capital as needed, potentially enhancing its market positioning and operational capabilities, although the company is not obligated to sell any shares under this agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orchid Island Capital stock, see the ORC Stock Forecast page.

Orchid Island Capital’s Earnings Call Highlights Positive Turnaround

Orchid Island Capital’s recent earnings call exuded a positive sentiment, highlighting significant improvements across several financial metrics. The company reported a notable increase in net income, book value, and total return compared to the previous quarter. Despite some concerns about rising funding costs and market uncertainties, the overall tone of the call was optimistic, with the positive aspects outweighing the negatives.

Orchid Island Capital Declares October 2025 Dividend

On October 15, 2025, Orchid Island Capital announced a monthly dividend of $0.12 per share for October 2025, to be paid on November 26, 2025. The company reported an estimated book value per share of $7.33 and a net income of $0.53 per share for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, reflecting a 6.6% total return on equity. These results highlight Orchid Island Capital’s ongoing commitment to shareholder returns and its strategic positioning within the REIT sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORC) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orchid Island Capital stock, see the ORC Stock Forecast page.

Orchid Island Capital Declares September 2025 Dividend

On September 8, 2025, Orchid Island Capital announced a monthly dividend of $0.12 per share for September 2025, payable on October 30, 2025, to shareholders of record on September 30, 2025. The company also provided details of its RMBS portfolio as of August 31, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to regular cash distributions, aligning with its REIT status requirements to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income annually to shareholders.

Orchid Island Capital Declares August 2025 Dividend

On August 13, 2025, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.12 per share for August 2025, to be paid on September 29, 2025. The announcement also included details of the company’s RMBS portfolio as of July 31, 2025, reflecting its ongoing commitment to regular distributions as a real estate investment trust (REIT).

Orchid Island Capital’s Mixed Earnings Call Highlights Challenges and Opportunities

Orchid Island Capital’s recent earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, reflecting both positive developments and significant challenges. While the company reported an increase in average mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and a decrease in leverage ratio, it faced hurdles such as a decline in book value and earnings per share, resulting in a negative total return for the quarter. External factors, including reciprocal tariffs, further complicated the market landscape.

Orchid Island Capital Amends Equity Distribution Agreement

On July 28, 2025, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. amended its equity distribution agreement to increase the aggregate offering price of its common stock by $150 million, allowing for future sales of up to approximately $233.5 million. This amendment, involving several sales agents, signifies a strategic move to bolster the company’s capital through ‘at the market’ offerings, potentially impacting its market positioning and providing additional liquidity for operations.