Orchid Island Capital (ORC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.13B
• Dividend Yield: 20.03%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 72.30%
• EPS Growth: -54.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 151,712,160
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,394,249
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,832,308
• PEG Ratio: -0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.36
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 59.93
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 61.14
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 36.86
• 1Y Price Target: $7.50
• Price Target Upside: 2.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▲(9.74% Upside)

The score reflects improved recent operating results and cash generation, plus a constructive technical uptrend and very high dividend yield. These positives are tempered by substantial balance-sheet leverage and a history of volatile results, alongside rate/funding-cost sensitivity highlighted in the earnings discussion.

Positive Factors

Free cash flow strength

ORC's TTM free cash flow of roughly $89.7M provides an internal funding source to support monthly distributions, absorb temporary margin compression, and improve liquidity. Sustained positive FCF over several quarters enhances resilience versus reliance on external capital markets.

Agency RMBS focus

A portfolio concentrated in agency RMBS backed by government-sponsored entities reduces credit/default risk versus non-agency holdings. This structural positioning helps stabilize principal and interest cashflows, supports access to repo financing, and aligns risk with a durable mREIT business model.

Capital raising flexibility

An ATM equity distribution agreement for up to $500M gives ORC durable capital flexibility to opportunistically raise equity, shore up book value, de-lever, or fund portfolio growth without disrupting operations. This structural tool reduces refinancing strain over the medium term.

Negative Factors

High leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio near 7.4x leaves ORC highly levered; in an mREIT this magnifies returns but also magnifies stress from spread widening or asset markdowns. Elevated leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases refinancing and solvency risk across adverse market scenarios.

Multi-year earnings volatility

Historical swings into negative revenue and sizable losses show ORC's earnings are cyclically sensitive to rate curves, prepayments, and hedge outcomes. Persistent volatility undermines predictability of dividends and book value, complicating medium-term capital planning and investor confidence.

Funding cost sensitivity

ORC's reliance on short-term repo funding makes net interest margin acutely sensitive to funding-cost changes. Recent rises in repo spreads compress the net interest spread on a highly levered portfolio, increasing earnings and liquidity risk if funding conditions tighten further.

Orchid Island Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Orchid Island Capital, Inc., a specialty finance company, invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the United States. The company's RMBS is backed by single-family residential mortgage loans, referred as Agency RMBS. Its portfolio includes traditional pass-through Agency RMBS, such as mortgage pass through certificates and collateralized mortgage obligations; and structured Agency RMBS comprising interest only securities, inverse interest only securities, and principal only securities. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. Orchid Island Capital, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Orchid Island Capital generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its mortgage-backed securities portfolio. The company invests in both agency RMBS, which are guaranteed by government-sponsored entities, and non-agency RMBS, which are not backed by any government guarantees. The interest income is supplemented by potential capital appreciation of its securities and gains from trading activities. Additionally, the company may utilize leverage to enhance returns on its investments, borrowing against its securities to increase its investment capacity. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and mortgage servicers may also contribute to its earnings, as these relationships can provide access to a broader range of investment opportunities and market insights.

Orchid Island Capital Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Orchid Island Capital shows revenue growth but struggles with profitability and high leverage. The income statement indicates low net profit margins, and the balance sheet reveals significant debt levels, posing financial risks. Cash flow generation is stable but shows signs of slowing growth.

Income Statement

Orchid Island Capital's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 11.66%. However, profitability margins are concerning, with a low net profit margin of 2.14% and a high EBIT margin of 89.62%, indicating potential volatility in earnings. The gross profit margin has improved significantly over the years, but the net income remains low, suggesting challenges in converting revenue into profit.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.30, which is typical for the REIT industry but poses financial risk. The return on equity is low at 0.83%, indicating limited returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 11.98%, reflecting a heavy reliance on debt financing. While the company maintains a significant asset base, the high debt levels could impact financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth, with a negative growth rate of -1.78% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.70, suggesting challenges in converting earnings into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is stable at 1.0, indicating that the company is generating enough cash to cover its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	137.17M	54.41M	-20.70M	-241.00M	-49.89M	12.67M
Gross Profit	134.46M	54.41M	-20.70M	-243.88M	-49.89M	10.10M
EBITDA	222.99M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Net Income	61.17M	37.66M	-39.23M	-258.45M	-64.76M	2.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.14B	5.72B	4.26B	3.87B	7.07B	4.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	583.96M	309.33M	241.03M	205.65M	385.14M	299.51M
Total Debt	8.01B	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.60B
Total Liabilities	8.05B	5.05B	3.80B	3.43B	6.30B	3.64B
Stockholders Equity	1.09B	668.50M	469.94M	438.76M	768.10M	415.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	89.71M	66.99M	8.00M	289.37M	96.44M	55.37M
Operating Cash Flow	89.71M	66.99M	8.00M	289.37M	96.44M	55.37M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.96B	-1.42B	-441.06M	2.44B	-3.02B	-199.34M
Financing Cash Flow	3.15B	1.48B	396.13M	-2.94B	3.07B	164.82M

Orchid Island Capital Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.29
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ORC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.31, above the 50-day MA of 7.23, and above the 200-day MA of 6.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.16 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ORC.

Orchid Island Capital Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ORC	63 Neutral	$1.13B	15.68	7.02%	20.03%	72.30%	-54.02%
MFA	61 Neutral	$978.01M	11.39	6.90%	14.90%	5.52%	-47.72%
EFC	60 Neutral	$1.53B	10.40	9.23%	11.37%	70.94%	2.95%
PMT	56 Neutral	$1.11B	14.27	6.37%	12.69%	-15.48%	-36.45%
TWO	53 Neutral	$1.14B	-4.39	-9.69%	14.29%	22.48%	50.49%
CIM	50 Neutral	$1.06B	-31.18	2.10%	11.40%	9.46%	-111.44%

Orchid Island Capital Corporate Events

Orchid Island Capital Declares Monthly Dividend, Sets Earnings Dates

On January 7, 2026, Orchid Island Capital declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.12 per share for January 2026, payable on February 26, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 30, 2026, and indicated it intends to continue making regular monthly distributions in line with REIT requirements, while cautioning that no minimum payout level is assured. The company also scheduled the release of its estimated fourth-quarter 2025 results and RMBS portfolio metrics for January 14, 2026, with full year-end and fourth-quarter 2025 results due January 29, 2026, signaling upcoming visibility into performance and portfolio positioning that will be closely watched by income-focused investors and other stakeholders amid its leveraged agency RMBS strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORC) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orchid Island Capital stock, see the ORC Stock Forecast page.

Orchid Island Capital Declares December 2025 Dividend

On December 9, 2025, Orchid Island Capital announced a monthly cash dividend of $0.12 per share for December 2025, payable on January 29, 2026. The company also provided details of its RMBS portfolio as of November 30, 2025. This announcement reflects Orchid Island Capital’s ongoing commitment to regular monthly distributions to its stockholders, aligning with its status as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that must distribute at least 90% of its taxable income annually.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orchid Island Capital stock, see the ORC Stock Forecast page.

Orchid Island Capital Announces November 2025 Dividend

On November 12, 2025, Orchid Island Capital announced a monthly dividend of $0.12 per share for November 2025, payable on December 30, 2025, to shareholders of record on November 28, 2025. The company also shared details about its RMBS portfolio as of October 31, 2025. This announcement reflects Orchid Island Capital’s ongoing commitment to regular cash distributions, aligning with its status as a real estate investment trust (REIT), which requires it to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income annually. The company’s dividend policy and portfolio updates are significant for stakeholders as they provide insights into its financial health and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orchid Island Capital stock, see the ORC Stock Forecast page.

Orchid Island Capital Announces Equity Distribution Agreement

On October 27, 2025, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. announced an equity distribution agreement with several sales agents, allowing the company to offer and sell up to $500 million of its common stock through at-the-market offerings. This strategic move provides Orchid Island Capital with the flexibility to raise capital as needed, potentially enhancing its market positioning and operational capabilities, although the company is not obligated to sell any shares under this agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORC) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orchid Island Capital stock, see the ORC Stock Forecast page.

Orchid Island Capital Declares October 2025 Dividend

On October 15, 2025, Orchid Island Capital announced a monthly dividend of $0.12 per share for October 2025, to be paid on November 26, 2025. The company reported an estimated book value per share of $7.33 and a net income of $0.53 per share for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, reflecting a 6.6% total return on equity. These results highlight Orchid Island Capital’s ongoing commitment to shareholder returns and its strategic positioning within the REIT sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (ORC) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orchid Island Capital stock, see the ORC Stock Forecast page.