Invesco Mortgage (IVR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $551.25M
• Dividend Yield: 18.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.77M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: 48624.87%
• EPS Growth: -57.39%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 70,945,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,538,514
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,766,705
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 10.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 27.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 27.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -182.67
• 1Y Price Target: $7.38
• Price Target Upside: -4.40% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.43
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $129.05M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.00 ▲(3.63% Upside)

Invesco Mortgage's overall stock score reflects a balance of positive technical trends and attractive valuation against financial risks and macroeconomic challenges. Strong revenue growth and positive earnings call sentiment are offset by low profitability and high leverage, necessitating caution.

Invesco Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in, financing, and managing mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. It invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; RMBS and CMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; credit risk transfer securities that are unsecured obligations issued by government-sponsored enterprises; residential and commercial mortgage loans; and other real estate-related financing arrangements. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Invesco Mortgage generates revenue primarily through interest income from its investments in mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. The company earns income by holding these securities, which typically provide regular interest payments. Additionally, IVR may also benefit from capital gains when it sells securities at a profit. The company's revenue model is influenced by the interest rate environment, as changes in rates can affect the value of its holdings and the yield on new investments. Furthermore, IVR may engage in hedging strategies to manage interest rate risk, which can also impact its financial performance. The company may have partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms that facilitate its investment strategies and capital management.

Invesco Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Invesco Mortgage's financial performance is mixed. Strong revenue growth is overshadowed by low profitability margins and high leverage, which pose financial risks. Cash flow generation shows improvement, but the company needs to stabilize earnings and reduce debt for better financial health.

Income Statement

Invesco Mortgage's income statement shows significant volatility. The TTM revenue growth rate is strong at 58.59%, indicating a recovery from previous periods. However, the net profit margin is low at 1.71% for TTM, reflecting challenges in converting revenue to profit. Historical EBIT and EBITDA margins have been inconsistent, with recent negative EBITDA. The company needs to stabilize its profitability metrics to improve its financial health.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.69 in the TTM, which poses a risk in a rising interest rate environment. The return on equity is low at 0.48% for TTM, indicating inefficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio is not provided, but the high debt levels suggest limited equity buffer. Improving equity and reducing debt would enhance financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend with a 4.24% growth in free cash flow in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.03, indicating potential issues in cash generation relative to accounting profits. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.0, suggesting good cash conversion. Continued focus on cash flow generation is crucial for financial resilience.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	208.75M	79.55M	4.19M	-377.60M	50.33M	-1.65B
Gross Profit	203.26M	79.55M	4.19M	-377.60M	29.25M	-1.65B
EBITDA	-30.92M	310.38M	0.00	-331.44M	-80.16M	0.00
Net Income	53.35M	59.88M	-15.86M	-402.92M	-90.00M	-1.67B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.96B	5.69B	5.28B	5.10B	8.44B	8.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	58.54M	73.40M	76.97M	175.53M	357.13M	148.01M
Total Debt	5.15B	4.89B	4.46B	4.23B	6.99B	7.23B
Total Liabilities	5.19B	4.96B	4.50B	4.29B	7.04B	7.27B
Stockholders Equity	769.58M	730.73M	782.66M	804.08M	1.40B	1.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	159.13M	183.16M	237.79M	196.08M	152.29M	170.46M
Operating Cash Flow	159.13M	183.16M	237.79M	196.08M	152.29M	170.46M
Investing Cash Flow	28.86M	-497.43M	-536.80M	2.42B	120.75M	11.55B
Financing Cash Flow	-175.73M	326.51M	218.87M	-2.92B	-88.57M	-11.62B

Invesco Mortgage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.72
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IVR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.44, above the 50-day MA of 7.36, and above the 200-day MA of 7.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IVR.

Invesco Mortgage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
TRTX	64 Neutral	$698.09M	13.69	5.87%	10.73%	-10.86%	-5.90%
NREF	61 Neutral	$237.12M	4.68	27.24%	15.05%	48.38%	210.91%
IVR	60 Neutral	$551.25M	15.25	6.56%	18.39%	48624.87%	-57.39%
KREF	54 Neutral	$517.28M	―	-0.16%	12.47%	-24.37%	-19.19%
ACRE	48 Neutral	$278.33M	―	-1.42%	15.59%	-30.60%	87.95%
CMTG	44 Neutral	$457.11M	―	-19.24%	―	-65.32%	-325.73%

Invesco Mortgage Corporate Events

Invesco Mortgage Capital’s Positive Earnings Call Highlights

Invesco Mortgage Capital’s recent earnings call conveyed a generally positive sentiment, highlighting strong performance in book value and strategic improvements in capital structure. The decrease in interest rate volatility provided a supportive backdrop for risk assets, particularly Agency RMBS. However, challenges such as persistent inflation and sluggish labor market growth were also noted.

Invesco Mortgage Reports Strong Q3 2025 Turnaround

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a significant turnaround with a net income per common share of $0.74, compared to a net loss of $0.40 in the previous quarter. The company achieved a 4.5% increase in book value per common share to $8.41, driven by strong performance in Agency RMBS due to declining interest rate volatility and robust investor demand, resulting in a positive economic return of 8.7% for the quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (IVR) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Invesco Mortgage stock, see the IVR Stock Forecast page.

Invesco Mortgage Declares Q3 2025 Cash Dividend

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. announced significant changes to its Board of Directors, with the planned retirements of Chair John Day, Audit Committee Chair Carolyn Handlon, and executive director Carolyn Gibbs, effective between December 2025 and March 2026. These retirements are part of a succession plan, with Don Liu, Wes McMullan, and Robert Fleshman taking on new leadership roles, and the Board’s size decreasing from eight to seven members. The company also declared a cash dividend of $0.34 per share for the third quarter of 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (IVR) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Invesco Mortgage stock, see the IVR Stock Forecast page.

Invesco Mortgage Enters New Equity Distribution Agreement

On August 8, 2025, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. entered into a new equity distribution agreement with several placement agents to sell up to 25 million shares of its common stock, replacing a previous agreement that allowed for the sale of up to 18 million shares. This move, which follows the termination of the previous agreement, allows the company to continue raising capital through the sale of shares, potentially impacting its market positioning and financial strategy. The termination of the previous agreement, which saw the sale of over 11 million shares, did not incur any penalties for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (IVR) stock is a Hold with a $7.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Invesco Mortgage stock, see the IVR Stock Forecast page.