Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR)
NYSE:IVR
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Invesco Mortgage
(NYSE:IVR)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(1.67% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
Overall score is driven primarily by a constrained financial profile—improving profitability and consistently positive cash flow are offset by very high leverage and recent revenue weakness. Technical indicators are neutral, valuation benefits from a very high dividend yield but is tempered by a negative P/E, and the latest earnings call was balanced with a notable book value decline partly mitigated by strong hedging/liquidity and improved return prospects.
Positive Factors
Consistent Cash Generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow across periods indicates the business generates recurring internal cash to fund distributions, cover servicing and hedging costs, and support selective asset purchases. Over a 2–6 month horizon this underpins dividend sustainability and reduces near-term financing strain despite leverage.
Negative Factors
Very High Leverage
Sustained, very high leverage leaves limited margin for error: modest asset value swings or funding-cost rises can materially erode book value and equity. High debt magnifies mark-to-market volatility and constrains strategic flexibility, increasing the probability of capital actions or dividend pressure if adverse conditions persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent Cash Generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow across periods indicates the business generates recurring internal cash to fund distributions, cover servicing and hedging costs, and support selective asset purchases. Over a 2–6 month horizon this underpins dividend sustainability and reduces near-term financing strain despite leverage.
Read all positive factors
Invesco Mortgage (IVR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$730.52M
Dividend Yield16.08%
Average Volume (3M)2.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth11.10%
EPS Growth77.28%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.86
Shares Outstanding92,823,270
10 Day Avg. Volume2,703,011
30 Day Avg. Volume2,505,846
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.64
P/FCF Ratio3.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue20.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit35.09
Enterprise Value/Ebitda34.15
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.75Price Target Upside-7.30% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$158.86M
Invesco Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in, financing, and managing mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. It invests in residential mortgage-backed...
How the Company Makes Money
IVR primarily makes money from (1) net interest income and (2) changes in the value of its investment portfolio, with results influenced by leverage and hedging.
1) Net interest income (core earnings driver for an mREIT)
- Interest income: IVR ea...
Invesco Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call described a challenging first quarter marked by a meaningful 7.9% decline in book value and heightened volatility that pressured higher-coupon Agency RMBS and tightened swap spreads. Offsetting factors included a 19% quarter-over-quarter portfolio growth funded by a $134M ATM, strong hedge coverage (96%), ample liquidity ($493.1M of unencumbered assets), reduced preferred equity to ~20% of equity, attractive leveraged return prospects (mid–high teens for RMBS; low double digits for CMBS), and a post-quarter ~2% book value recovery. Overall, positives around capital actions, funding stability, diversification into Agency CMBS, and attractive yields partially mitigated the quarter’s mark-to-market weakness, leaving a balanced view of near-term risk versus structural strengths.Positive Updates
Portfolio Growth and Composition
Investment portfolio grew 19% quarter-over-quarter to $7.3 billion, comprised of $5.2B Agency RMBS, $1.2B Agency TBA (≈17% of portfolio), and $0.9B Agency CMBS. Purchases focused in 4.5%–5.5% coupons and TBAs to capture attractive dollar roll financing.
Negative Updates
Significant Book Value Decline and Negative Economic Return
Book value per share declined 7.9% to $8.08 at quarter end. Including monthly dividends of $0.12, the company reported an economic return of negative 3.2% for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Portfolio Growth and Composition
Investment portfolio grew 19% quarter-over-quarter to $7.3 billion, comprised of $5.2B Agency RMBS, $1.2B Agency TBA (≈17% of portfolio), and $0.9B Agency CMBS. Purchases focused in 4.5%–5.5% coupons and TBAs to capture attractive dollar roll financing.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance emphasized that agency mortgages should perform well as geopolitical tensions moderate, while highlighting key metrics: book value declined 7.9% to $8.08 at quarter-end (but is up ≈2% in April) and Q1 economic return was -3.2%; portfolio was $7.3B (≈ $5.2B Agency RMBS, $1.2B Agency TBA, $0.9B Agency CMBS) with >80% of assets having prepayment protection (over $5B specified pools and ~ $0.9B CMBS) and $493.1M of unrestricted cash/unencumbered investments; earnings available for distribution modestly declined from $0.56 to $0.55; they raised nearly $134M net via ATM in Q1 and plan selective future ATM use, reduced preferreds to ~20% of total equity, and moved to monthly dividends of $0.12 per month; leverage (economic debt-to-equity) rose to 7.5 turns from 7.0, repo financing fell from $5.6B to $5.3B while hedge notionals rose from $4.9B to $5.1B (hedge ratio 96% vs. 87%) with 81% of hedges by notional in swaps (65% by dollar-duration); current coupon spread vs. a 5/10-year SOFR blend was ~165 bps (25 bps wider than year-end) implying levered gross returns in the high teens (mid/upper teens post‑April), Agency CMBS levered returns are low double digits, and GSEs added ~ $35B to retained portfolios in Q1 (~$18B in March) with ~ $117B capacity remaining.Invesco Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
32
Negative
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 280.73M | 339.70M | 329.27M | 189.80M | -437.55M | 50.33M |
| Gross Profit | 166.75M | 328.40M | 79.09M | 177.51M | -377.60M | 29.25M |
| EBITDA | 171.31M | 321.14M | 310.38M | 222.84M | -331.44M | -80.16M |
| Net Income | 61.76M | 101.29M | 59.88M | -15.86M | -402.92M | -90.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.27B | 6.48B | 5.69B | 5.28B | 5.10B | 8.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 52.60M | 56.04M | 73.40M | 76.97M | 176.20M | 357.40M |
| Total Debt | 5.34B | 5.62B | 4.89B | 4.46B | 4.24B | 7.00B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.39B | 5.68B | 4.96B | 4.50B | 4.29B | 7.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 876.35M | 797.54M | 730.73M | 782.66M | 804.08M | 1.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 164.42M | 157.09M | 183.16M | 237.79M | 196.08M | 152.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 164.42M | 157.09M | 183.16M | 237.79M | 196.08M | 152.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -181.36M | -892.87M | -497.43M | -536.80M | 2.42B | 120.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 26.35M | 691.33M | 326.51M | 218.87M | -2.92B | -88.57M |
Invesco Mortgage Technical Analysis
Negative
8.36
Price Trends
8.02
Negative
8.15
Negative
7.56
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
41.14
Neutral
43.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IVR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.00, above the 50-day MA of 8.02, and above the 200-day MA of 7.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IVR.
Invesco Mortgage Risk Analysis
Invesco Mortgage disclosed 87 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Invesco Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Invesco Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $294.22M | 2.79 | 16.68% | 14.36% | -1.80% | 39.83% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $649.39M | 10.00 | 6.09% | 10.48% | 0.84% | -8.55% | |
55 Neutral | $730.52M | 11.15 | 7.84% | 16.08% | 11.10% | 77.28% | |
52 Neutral | $274.08M | -13.74 | -3.88% | 13.75% | -35.42% | -46.68% | |
50 Neutral | $431.52M | -4.39 | -8.30% | 11.33% | -20.03% | -1249.19% | |
46 Neutral | $340.73M | -0.72 | -28.47% | ― | 106.26% | -86.85% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
IVR
Invesco Mortgage
7.87
1.67
27.00%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
4.93
0.79
19.17%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
6.65
-1.28
-16.15%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
8.38
1.53
22.25%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
15.52
2.41
18.37%
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust
2.38
-0.33
-12.18%
Invesco Mortgage Corporate Events
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Invesco Mortgage Declares Monthly Dividend, Provides Financial Update
Positive
May 14, 2026
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc., a mortgage-focused REIT investing in agency RMBS and CMBS and financed largely through short-term repurchase agreements, reported a total investment portfolio including TBAs of $7.5 billion as of April 30, 2026. The ...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Invesco Mortgage Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
May 7, 2026
At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 5, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. saw all nominees to its Board of Directors re-elected, each receiving at least 94% of votes cast, signaling strong investor support for the company’s cu...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Invesco Mortgage Declares April Dividend, Updates Portfolio Metrics
Positive
Apr 15, 2026
On April 15, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.12 per common share for April, payable on May 14 to shareholders of record on April 27, underscoring its continued income distribution strategy. The company also re...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Invesco Mortgage Announces CEO Retirement and Leadership Transition
Neutral
Apr 14, 2026
On April 13, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital’s longtime chief executive John M. Anzalone notified the company he will retire as CEO effective April 30, 2026, and is expected to remain in an advisory role through October 1, 2026. The board app...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Invesco Mortgage Declares March Dividend, Updates Financial Metrics
Neutral
Mar 13, 2026
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.12 per common share for March 2026, payable on April 14, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 24, 2026, with the same date as the ex-dividend date. The company also released prelim...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Invesco Mortgage Capital Adds Veteran Fixed Income Director
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. has expanded and reshaped its board, appointing veteran fixed income strategist Stephanie J. Larosiliere as an executive director effective March 6, 2026, while executive director Carolyn Gibbs is set to retire from t...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Invesco Mortgage Launches New Expanded Equity Distribution Program
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 23, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc., its operating partnership and its external manager entered into a new equity distribution agreement allowing the company to sell up to 40,000,000 shares of common stock from time to time through...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.