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Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)
NYSE:IVR
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Invesco Mortgage
(NYSE:IVR)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:―
Invesco Mortgage (IVR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$507.91M
Dividend Yield19.2%
Average Volume (3M)1.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.4
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth1.13%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength54
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.58
Shares Outstanding66,307,380
10 Day Avg. Volume1,193,873
30 Day Avg. Volume1,793,777
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.59
Price to Sales (P/S)5.41
P/FCF Ratio2.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap10.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue73.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit73.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda68.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.25Price Target Upside-5.84% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
Invesco Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionInvesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in, financing, and managing residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loans. The company's portfolio is largely comprised of Agency RMBS, which are residential mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by U.S. government agencies, along with non-Agency RMBS and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). Invesco Mortgage Capital aims to generate income through its investments in these mortgage-related assets by leveraging its expertise in the mortgage finance sector.
How the Company Makes MoneyInvesco Mortgage Capital makes money primarily through the interest income generated from its portfolio of mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loans. The company's revenue model involves acquiring high-quality mortgage-backed securities, both residential and commercial, and earning the spread between the interest income on these securities and the cost of borrowing to finance them. By utilizing leverage, Invesco Mortgage Capital seeks to enhance its returns on equity. The company also engages in active portfolio management to optimize its asset mix and manage interest rate risks. In addition to interest income, the company may realize gains or losses from the sale of securities within its portfolio. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the performance of the housing and commercial real estate markets, interest rate trends, and government policies affecting mortgage financing.
Invesco Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 24, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: 0.92%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with strong performance in agency mortgages and CMBS, stable employment data, and attractive ROEs, but was offset by negative economic returns and impacts from interest rate volatility and swap spreads.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Stable Employment and Resilient Labor Market
The economy added about 150,000 jobs per month during Q2, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.
Agency Mortgages and CMBS Performance
Agency mortgages and Agency CMBS performed well into the beginning of the third quarter, with a favorable long-term outlook due to attractive valuations and reduced interest rate volatility.
Reduced Debt-to-Equity Ratio
The company's debt-to-equity ratio decreased from 7.1x at the end of March to 6.5x at the end of June, reflecting a more defensive posture.
Attractive ROEs
Levered gross ROEs in the low 20s for higher coupons represent a very attractive entry point for mortgage investors with longer investment horizons.
Improved Book Value
As of July 18, 2025, the estimated book value per common share increased by a little more than 1% since the end of the second quarter.
Negative Updates
Negative Economic Return
The economic return for the quarter was negative 4.8%, consisting of a $0.34 dividend per common share and a $0.76 decline in book value per common share.
Interest Rate Volatility Impact
A spike in interest rate volatility and a broad sell-off in risk assets caused agency mortgages to underperform treasuries in April.
Negative Impact from Swap Spreads
Valuations on interest rate swap hedges were negatively impacted by trade policy-related volatility and fiscal policy concerns, resulting in tighter swap spreads.
Company Guidance
During Invesco Mortgage Capital's second quarter earnings call for 2025, several key financial metrics and guidance were discussed. The company reported an economic return for the quarter of negative 4.8%, which included a $0.34 dividend per common share and a $0.76 decline in book value per common share. The debt-to-equity ratio decreased from 7.1x at the end of March to 6.5x by the end of June, reflecting a defensive posture amidst elevated uncertainty regarding trade and monetary policy. The company's $5.2 billion investment portfolio consisted of $4.3 billion in agency mortgages and $900 million in Agency CMBS, with a balance of unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments totaling $362 million. As of July 18, 2025, the estimated book value per common share was between $7.99 and $8.31. The financial conditions were volatile, influenced by trade policy announcements, but ended with a modestly accommodative stance as interest rate volatility declined. The company maintains a cautious near-term outlook but is optimistic about the long-term prospects for agency mortgages and Agency CMBS, anticipating improved demand and favorable market conditions.Invesco Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Invesco Mortgage exhibits moderate financial health with strong cash flow management and a manageable balance sheet, but faces significant revenue and profit volatility. The income statement reflects these challenges, which could pose ongoing risks.Income Statement
The income statement shows significant fluctuations in total revenue and profitability over recent years. Notably, revenue recovered in 2024 compared to previous years, but the company still reported a net income of zero, indicating challenges in achieving profitability. The gross profit margin is 100% in 2024, which is unusual and suggests potential accounting adjustments or unique revenue recognition practices. The overall lack of consistent profitability and revenue volatility poses a risk to financial stability.25
Negative
Balance Sheet
Invesco Mortgage's balance sheet shows a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio in 2024 due to zero reported total debt, which is a positive indicator. However, the equity ratio is 12.85%, pointing to modest equity backing for the assets. The company's financial health has improved from earlier years, but the overall balance sheet strength is moderate, given the historical volatility in liabilities and equity.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
The cash flow analysis reveals a stable operating cash flow, which is a positive sign of operational efficiency. Free cash flow has shown a decline in 2024 compared to 2023, but still remains positive, indicating some level of financial resilience. The company's ability to generate operating cash flow despite net income challenges suggests effective cash management, although growth in free cash flow remains a concern.60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 69.84M | 79.55M | 4.19M | -377.60M | -62.53M | -1.65B |
| Gross Profit | 69.84M | 79.55M | 4.19M | -377.60M | -62.53M | -1.65B |
| EBITDA | 74.67M | 309.79M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 50.40M | 59.88M | -15.86M | -402.92M | -90.00M | -1.67B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.16B | 5.69B | 5.28B | 5.10B | 8.44B | 8.63B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 181.50M | 210.88M | 76.97M | 175.53M | 357.13M | 158.01M |
| Total Debt | 5.36B | 4.89B | 4.46B | 4.23B | 6.99B | 7.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.40B | 4.96B | 4.50B | 4.29B | 7.04B | 7.27B |
| Stockholders Equity | 759.17M | 730.73M | 782.66M | 804.08M | 1.40B | 1.37B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 145.01M | 183.16M | 237.79M | 196.08M | 152.29M | 170.46M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 145.01M | 183.16M | 237.79M | 196.08M | 152.29M | 170.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.05B | -497.43M | -536.80M | 2.42B | 120.75M | 11.55B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 887.03M | 326.51M | 218.87M | -2.92B | -88.57M | -11.62B |
Invesco Mortgage Technical Analysis
Positive
7.70
Price Trends
7.51
Positive
7.24
Positive
7.36
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
55.69
Neutral
68.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IVR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.59, above the 50-day MA of 7.51, and above the 200-day MA of 7.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IVR.
Invesco Mortgage Risk Analysis
Invesco Mortgage disclosed 86 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Invesco Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Invesco Mortgage Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $708.89M | 13.94 | 5.87% | 10.60% | -12.51% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.02B | 17.05 | 4.04% | 5.06% | 2.09% | 0.28% | |
61 Neutral | $1.15B | 36.52 | 0.87% | 20.14% | 67.17% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $613.23M | 35.77 | 4.42% | 11.71% | 35.74% | ― | |
54 Neutral | $611.70M | 56.21 | -1.76% | 10.64% | -20.88% | -420.89% | |
50 Neutral | $507.91M | 19.45 | 5.53% | 19.20% | 1.13% | ― | |
48 Neutral | $474.00M | ― | -21.24% | 24.36% | -65.30% | -318.17% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
IVR
Invesco Mortgage
7.70
0.48
6.65%
NYMT
New York Mortgage
6.83
1.23
21.96%
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
7.16
0.48
7.19%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
9.28
-0.92
-9.02%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
9.06
1.50
19.84%
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc.
3.49
-4.36
-55.54%
Invesco Mortgage Corporate Events
Delistings and Listing ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Invesco Mortgage: Termination and Stock Reclassification Events
Neutral
Dec 27, 2024
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. announced the termination of its Equity Distribution Agreement, which allowed the company to offer and sell preferred stocks through an agent. The company did not sell any shares under this agreement and faces no penalties for the termination. Additionally, the company redeemed all outstanding shares of its Series B Preferred Stock, reclassifying the authorized but unissued shares to Preferred Stock without designation and completing the redemption on December 27, 2024.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.