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Invesco Mortgage
(NYSE:IVR)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(5.54% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
IVR’s score is driven primarily by improved profitability and cash generation, tempered by high leverage/thin equity and low debt coverage that raise funding and book-value sensitivity. Valuation is supportive (low P/E and very high yield), but technical signals are weak (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings-call commentary was constructive on hedging/liquidity and returns, yet highlighted declining EAD and ongoing leverage/spread risks.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation and FCF growth
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow, with FCF up 17.2% TTM, underpins the REIT's ability to fund monthly distributions, buy targeted RMBS, and support liability maturities without immediate reliance on distressed funding. Durable cash generation improves strategic flexibility over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage and thin equity cushion
Elevated leverage and a small equity base relative to assets materially increase vulnerability to valuation swings and margin deterioration. A thin capital cushion magnifies the impact of markdowns or payup contractions, raising the probability of dilutive raises or forced portfolio trimming under stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation and FCF growth
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow, with FCF up 17.2% TTM, underpins the REIT's ability to fund monthly distributions, buy targeted RMBS, and support liability maturities without immediate reliance on distressed funding. Durable cash generation improves strategic flexibility over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Invesco Mortgage (IVR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$805.15M
Dividend Yield20.59%
Average Volume (3M)2.75M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.7
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth31.49%
EPS Growth274.62%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.60
Shares Outstanding107,640,420
10 Day Avg. Volume3,027,515
30 Day Avg. Volume2,749,457
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)0.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.64
P/FCF Ratio3.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$177.95M
Invesco Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. functions as a real estate investment trust (REIT), concentrating on acquiring, funding, and overseeing a diverse portfolio of mortgage-backed securities and other assets linked to real estate. Its holdings include bo...
How the Company Makes Money
IVR makes money primarily by earning net interest income from its mortgage-related investment portfolio. The core model is to (1) invest in mortgage assets that generate interest and other investment income and (2) fund those assets using leverage...
Invesco Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive operational and financial picture: the firm delivered a positive economic return (3.8%), grew the portfolio meaningfully (12.4% qoq), raised significant capital (~$118M in Q2, >$250M YTD), and maintained ample liquidity and heavy hedge coverage (97%). At the same time, management acknowledged pressures: EAD declined (from $0.55 to $0.50), modest book value weakness (−0.6% Q2; estimated −2.5% quarter-to-date), spread widening and elevated front-end volatility, specified pool payup risk (~$50M MV), and concentrated repo funding and leverage (~9x). Overall, the positives around portfolio performance, attractive levered returns, balance sheet flexibility and disciplined hedging were presented as outweighing the near-term risks, though management remains cautious given macro and geopolitical uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong Economic Return and Consistent Dividend
Generated an economic return of 3.8% in Q2, comprised of monthly dividends of $0.12 per share; book value per share only modestly declined 0.6% for the quarter while dividend payout remained intact.
Negative Updates
Earnings Available for Distribution Decline
Earnings available for distribution (EAD) declined from $0.55 in Q1 to $0.50 in Q2 (≈9.1% decrease), a trend that could pressure dividend coverage if it continues.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Economic Return and Consistent Dividend
Generated an economic return of 3.8% in Q2, comprised of monthly dividends of $0.12 per share; book value per share only modestly declined 0.6% for the quarter while dividend payout remained intact.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance was that the firm remains "constructive yet measured" into Q3 amid attractive Agency RMBS/CMBS valuations but ongoing monetary policy, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty; they cited a Q2 economic return of 3.8% (monthly dividend $0.12/share), a 0.6% quarter decline in book value (QTD BV down ~2.5% including the accrued dividend), EAD of $0.50 (versus $0.55 in Q1), and a $8.2B portfolio (≈$6.0B Agency RMBS, $1.2B Agency TBA, $0.9B Agency CMBS) with ~$548M cash/unencumbered investments (~55% of equity). Key risk-management metrics: ~97% of borrowing costs hedged (hedges = 79% swaps by notional, 65% by dollar duration), leverage ~9x debt-to-equity, duration gap reduced from ~0.5 to ~0.25 years, repo financing rose from $5.3B to $6.2B and hedge notional from $4.9B to $6.0B; capital/momentum indicators included 12.4% Q/Q portfolio growth, ~$118M raised in Q2 (~$250M YTD) via ATM, current‑coupon spread to the 5/10‑year SOFR blend at 143 bps (≈150 bps in July), and targeted levered gross returns of mid–high teens on higher‑coupon specified pools (TBA high teens; Agency CMBS low double digits).Invesco Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
59
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 310.47M | 339.70M | 329.27M | 189.80M | -437.55M | 50.33M |
| Gross Profit | 246.06M | 119.84M | 79.09M | 177.51M | -377.60M | 29.25M |
| EBITDA | 284.78M | 321.14M | 310.38M | 222.78M | -331.66M | -79.29M |
| Net Income | 120.08M | 101.29M | 59.88M | -15.86M | -402.92M | -90.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.24B | 6.48B | 5.69B | 5.28B | 5.10B | 8.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 73.38M | 56.04M | 73.40M | 76.97M | 176.20M | 357.40M |
| Total Debt | 6.21B | 5.62B | 4.89B | 4.46B | 4.24B | 7.00B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.25B | 5.68B | 4.96B | 4.50B | 4.29B | 7.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 990.32M | 797.54M | 730.73M | 782.66M | 804.08M | 1.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 166.02M | 157.09M | 183.16M | 237.79M | 196.08M | 152.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 166.02M | 157.09M | 183.16M | 237.79M | 196.08M | 152.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.84B | -892.87M | -497.43M | -536.80M | 2.42B | 120.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.72B | 691.33M | 326.51M | 218.87M | -2.92B | -88.57M |
Invesco Mortgage Technical Analysis
Neutral
7.58
Price Trends
7.66
Negative
7.67
Negative
7.56
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
45.23
Neutral
70.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IVR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.58 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.49, below the 50-day MA of 7.66, and above the 200-day MA of 7.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IVR.
Invesco Mortgage Risk Analysis
Invesco Mortgage disclosed 87 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Invesco Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Invesco Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $319.47M | 4.73 | 15.53% | 11.91% | 1.61% | 14.36% | |
60 Neutral | $608.78M | 14.36 | 5.45% | 11.14% | 3.78% | -15.19% | |
58 Neutral | $805.15M | 4.68 | 13.99% | 20.32% | 31.49% | 274.62% | |
51 Neutral | $449.66M | -2.32 | -16.70% | 11.58% | -19.57% | -397.76% | |
50 Neutral | $261.87M | -62.68 | -0.88% | 12.93% | 28.95% | 76.08% | |
43 Neutral | $256.77M | -0.48 | -35.83% | ― | 79.83% | -27.98% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
IVR
Invesco Mortgage
7.48
1.21
19.37%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
4.72
0.87
22.47%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
7.62
-0.59
-7.20%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
7.93
-0.15
-1.88%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
16.95
4.19
32.80%
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust
1.82
-1.54
-45.83%
Invesco Mortgage Corporate Events
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Invesco Mortgage declares August 2026 common stock dividend
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.12 per share on its common stock for August 2026, payable on September 15 to shareholders of record as of August 25. The announcement underscored the company’s ...
Executive/Board Changes
Invesco Mortgage Capital Adds Peter Graham to Board
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
On August 3, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. appointed Peter Graham to its Board of Directors and to the Audit, Compensation, and Nomination and Corporate Governance committees. Graham, Co-President and Chief Financial Officer of Sallie Mae wi...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Invesco Mortgage Declares June 2026 Monthly Cash Dividend
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.12 per share for June 2026, with payment scheduled for July 15, 2026, to stockholders of record as of June 23, 2026, reflecting its ongoing monthly payout policy. The announcement, made ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.