Invesco Mortgage (IVR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $696.14M
• Dividend Yield: 16.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.73M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.60
• Revenue Growth: -53.20%
• EPS Growth: 97.96%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.56
• Shares Outstanding: 83,270,530
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,665,903
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,725,640
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.55
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 8.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 25.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 37.82
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.15
• 1Y Price Target: $8.63
• Price Target Upside: -2.15% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.24
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $154.12M

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▲(2.04% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/24/26

The score is held back primarily by elevated leverage and a limited equity buffer despite improved profitability and positive cash generation. Valuation and income characteristics are strong (low P/E and very high yield), and the latest earnings call was supportive (book value growth and raised dividend), but near-term technical momentum is soft.

Positive Factors

Improved earnings and cash generation

IVR delivered positive net income and operating cash flow in 2025, with free cash flow covering net income. Consistent positive cash generation improves earnings quality, supports the raised dividend and reduces the need for forced asset sales, strengthening durability.

Scale in Agency RMBS and CMBS

A $6.3B portfolio concentrated in liquid agency RMBS plus meaningful agency CMBS gives IVR market scale and access to agency liquidity. CMBS exposure adds diversification and lower rate‑sensitivity features, supporting more stable medium‑term income generation.

Expanded equity issuance capacity

A larger ATM program materially increases IVR's ability to raise equity opportunistically. That structural capital flexibility helps rebuild the equity cushion, manage leverage without distressed asset sales, and address shocks over the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Very high financial leverage

Debt-to-equity near mid‑single digits leaves a thin capital buffer. High leverage magnifies mark‑to‑market losses and funding shocks, increasing the likelihood of portfolio deleveraging or dividend cuts if rates or spreads move unfavorably over the medium term.

Reliance on short-term repo funding

Heavy dependence on short‑dated repo financing creates structural rollover and liquidity risk. A rapid rise in repo spreads or reduced counterparties can increase funding costs or curtail access, compressing net interest spreads and pressuring sustainable earnings.

Prepayment risk and limited spread upside

Rising prepayments on higher‑coupon pools shorten cash flows and reduce yields on premium securities, while management sees limited further spread tightening. These structural constraints cap future reinvestment yields and compress durable levered returns.

Invesco Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in, financing, and managing mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. It invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; RMBS and CMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; credit risk transfer securities that are unsecured obligations issued by government-sponsored enterprises; residential and commercial mortgage loans; and other real estate-related financing arrangements. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Invesco Mortgage generates revenue primarily through interest income from its investments in mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. The company earns income by holding these securities, which typically provide regular interest payments. Additionally, IVR may also benefit from capital gains when it sells securities at a profit. The company's revenue model is influenced by the interest rate environment, as changes in rates can affect the value of its holdings and the yield on new investments. Furthermore, IVR may engage in hedging strategies to manage interest rate risk, which can also impact its financial performance. The company may have partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms that facilitate its investment strategies and capital management.

Invesco Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows a strong rebound (2025 revenue up sharply and net income positive), and operating/free cash flow are positive. However, balance-sheet risk is a major constraint with very high leverage (debt-to-equity ~5x–7x) and a relatively small equity cushion, making results more fragile and historically volatile.

Income Statement

The earnings profile has improved meaningfully versus prior years, with 2025 showing strong revenue growth (+141.98%) and positive net income ($101.3M) after losses in 2020–2023. Profitability metrics are also much stronger in 2024–2025 (positive net margins), signaling a recovery in the underlying earnings power. However, results have been highly volatile across the cycle (large losses in 2020–2022 and a loss again in 2023), which reduces confidence in the durability of the current run-rate.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated and remains the key balance-sheet constraint: debt-to-equity is very high (5.27x–7.05x from 2022–2025), which is a meaningful risk if funding costs rise or asset values move against the portfolio. Equity is relatively modest versus total assets (e.g., $797.5M equity vs. $6.48B assets in 2025), limiting the cushion to absorb shocks. Return on equity has turned positive in 2024–2025, but the balance sheet has a history of negative ROE in earlier years, reinforcing the importance of managing leverage through the cycle.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently positive, with operating cash flow of $157.1M in 2025 and free cash flow matching operating cash flow across all years shown. Free cash flow also covers net income in 2024–2025 (free cash flow to net income of 1.0), which is supportive of earnings quality. Offsetting this, operating cash flow is small relative to the company’s debt load (coverage ratios ~2.2%–5.3% historically and 2.8% in 2025) and free cash flow growth has been negative in 2024–2025, suggesting weakening momentum despite higher reported profits.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	339.70M	79.55M	4.19M	-377.60M	50.33M
Gross Profit	328.40M	79.55M	4.19M	-377.60M	-62.53M
EBITDA	321.14M	310.38M	222.84M	-331.44M	-80.16M
Net Income	101.29M	59.88M	-15.86M	-402.92M	-90.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.48B	5.69B	5.28B	5.10B	8.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	56.04M	73.40M	76.97M	176.20M	357.40M
Total Debt	5.62B	4.89B	4.46B	4.24B	7.00B
Total Liabilities	5.68B	4.96B	4.50B	4.29B	7.04B
Stockholders Equity	797.54M	730.73M	782.66M	804.08M	1.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	157.09M	183.16M	237.79M	196.08M	152.29M
Operating Cash Flow	157.09M	183.16M	237.79M	196.08M	152.29M
Investing Cash Flow	-892.87M	-497.43M	-536.80M	2.42B	120.75M
Financing Cash Flow	691.33M	326.51M	218.87M	-2.92B	-88.57M

Invesco Mortgage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 8.82
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IVR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.60, above the 50-day MA of 8.51, and above the 200-day MA of 7.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for IVR.

Invesco Mortgage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NREF	74 Outperform	$262.28M	4.92	19.70%	14.36%	15.51%	210.91%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
TRTX	59 Neutral	$660.52M	14.73	5.32%	10.48%	-10.86%	-5.90%
IVR	58 Neutral	$696.14M	6.39	13.26%	16.08%	-53.20%	97.96%
ACRE	51 Neutral	$287.91M	-256.16	-0.17%	13.75%	-30.60%	87.95%
KREF	49 Neutral	$468.87M	-6.93	-3.86%	11.33%	-24.37%	-19.19%
CMTG	43 Neutral	$323.91M	-0.66	-19.24%	―	-65.32%	-325.73%

Invesco Mortgage Corporate Events

Invesco Mortgage Launches New Expanded Equity Distribution Program

On February 23, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc., its operating partnership and its external manager entered into a new equity distribution agreement allowing the company to sell up to 40,000,000 shares of common stock from time to time through a syndicate of placement agents on the NYSE or via negotiated transactions. The placement agents are entitled to compensation of up to 2.00% of gross proceeds, while neither the company nor the agents are obligated to complete any sales, and the agreement includes customary representations, covenants and indemnification provisions that allocate contractual risk among the parties.

Effective as of 4:05 p.m. on February 23, 2026, the company terminated its prior equity distribution agreement dated August 8, 2025, under which it had been authorized to sell up to 25,000,000 shares and had already issued about 17,996,980 shares of common stock without incurring any termination penalties. The new, larger program increases potential equity-raising capacity and replaces the earlier facility, signaling continued use of at-the-market offerings as a flexible funding tool for Invesco Mortgage Capital’s ongoing capital and portfolio needs.

The most recent analyst rating on (IVR) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Invesco Mortgage stock, see the IVR Stock Forecast page.

Invesco Mortgage Declares February Dividend, Updates Portfolio Metrics

On February 13, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.12 per share for February 2026, payable on March 13, 2026 to stockholders of record as of February 24, 2026, and reported preliminary, unaudited financial figures as of January 31, 2026. The company disclosed a $7.1 billion total investment portfolio including TBAs, unrestricted cash and unencumbered investments of $510.7 million, $5.4 billion in repurchase agreement borrowings, an estimated book value of $8.91 per common share, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.1x, underscoring its continued use of significant leverage in agency MBS markets while cautioning that the figures are preliminary and unaudited.

As of January 31, 2026, the portfolio was concentrated in 30-year fixed-rate agency RMBS pass-throughs totaling about $5.2 billion at a 5.43% weighted average yield, supplemented by agency CMOs and CMBS that brought total MBS exposure to $6.1 billion, or 86.4% of assets. The company funded these holdings primarily with short-term repurchase agreements on agency MBS at a 3.83% weighted average interest rate and 23-day average maturity, and it maintained interest rate swaps totaling $2.7 billion notional that pay low fixed rates and receive SOFR-based floating rates, reflecting a balance sheet structure reliant on short-term funding and derivatives to manage rate sensitivity and support its dividend-paying capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (IVR) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Invesco Mortgage stock, see the IVR Stock Forecast page.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Raises Dividend and Shifts to Monthly

On December 18, 2025, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. announced that its board declared a cash dividend of $0.36 per share of common stock for the fourth quarter of 2025, payable on January 23, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 29, 2025, marking an increase that management said reflects the strength of the firm’s investment portfolio, liquidity and capital structure amid a more favorable backdrop for Agency MBS. The company also unveiled a shift in its dividend policy from quarterly to monthly distributions beginning in the first quarter of 2026, with the first monthly dividend declaration expected on January 15, 2026, a move aimed at providing more timely and consistent income to common shareholders and potentially enhancing its appeal to income-focused investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (IVR) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Invesco Mortgage stock, see the IVR Stock Forecast page.