Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)
NYSE:IVR
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Invesco Mortgage
(NYSE:IVR)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▲(16.73% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/11/26
The score is driven by very strong valuation (low P/E and high yield) and a constructive earnings update (book value growth, strong economic return, and a dividend increase). These positives are tempered by elevated balance-sheet leverage and earnings cyclicality, while technical signals are currently neutral-to-weak.
Positive Factors
Large agency RMBS portfolio
A $6.3B portfolio with ~ $5.4B in agency RMBS provides durable scale in highly liquid, GSE-backed securities. That scale supports stable net interest income generation, easier repo financing access, and reduces idiosyncratic risk versus a smaller, less liquid portfolio.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
Elevated leverage materially increases sensitivity to spread widening or mark-to-market losses; with modest equity relative to assets, shocks can rapidly erode book value. High gearing constrains strategic optionality and raises bankruptcy and dividend sustainability risk during adverse cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large agency RMBS portfolio
A $6.3B portfolio with ~ $5.4B in agency RMBS provides durable scale in highly liquid, GSE-backed securities. That scale supports stable net interest income generation, easier repo financing access, and reduces idiosyncratic risk versus a smaller, less liquid portfolio.
Read all positive factors
Invesco Mortgage (IVR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$642.02M
Dividend Yield16.08%
Average Volume (3M)2.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.7
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth-53.20%
EPS Growth97.96%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.56
Shares Outstanding83,270,530
10 Day Avg. Volume2,191,505
30 Day Avg. Volume2,387,145
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.64
P/FCF Ratio3.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap9.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue25.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit37.34
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.25Price Target Upside7.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)$163.54M
Invesco Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in, financing, and managing mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. It invests in residential mortgage-backed...
How the Company Makes Money
IVR primarily makes money from (1) net interest income and (2) changes in the value of its investment portfolio, with results influenced by leverage and hedging.
1) Net interest income (core earnings driver for an mREIT)
- Interest income: IVR ea...
Invesco Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive tone driven by strong quarter results (book value growth, an 8% economic return, portfolio growth, attractive levered returns on Agency RMBS/CMBS, robust liquidity, and supportive macro tailwinds such as Fed easing and GSE purchases). Management flagged several measured concerns — limited incremental spread tightening going forward, increased prepayment speeds in higher coupons, earlier short-term funding pressure, subdued bank/overseas demand, and a modest rise in leverage — but these were presented as manageable and largely balanced by the firm’s liquidity, hedging, and disciplined positioning. Overall, highlights materially outweighed the lowlights.Positive Updates
Book Value and Economic Return Improvement
Book value per common share increased 3.7% to $8.72 during the quarter and IVR delivered an 8% economic return for the quarter. Book value was also up approximately 4.5% since year-end (through the referenced Wednesday).
Negative Updates
Limited Further Spread Tightening / Reduced Upside
Management expects the bulk of spread tightening from 2025 is largely priced in and indicated that further spread tightening is unlikely absent additional government action (e.g., increased GSE caps). They noted available ROEs have tightened ~10 basis points since year-end, reducing potential upside.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Book Value and Economic Return Improvement
Book value per common share increased 3.7% to $8.72 during the quarter and IVR delivered an 8% economic return for the quarter. Book value was also up approximately 4.5% since year-end (through the referenced Wednesday).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The guidance emphasized a constructive but balanced outlook for agency mortgages, noting monetary easing and technicals that support the sector (Fed cut the funds rate by 25 bps at each of its last three 2025 meetings, markets pricing in ~50 bps more cuts through 2026; headline CPI 2.7% / core CPI 2.6%; economy lost 67,000 jobs in the quarter), while calling out specific portfolio and capital metrics: book value per common share $8.72 (up 3.7% Q/Q), quarterly economic return 8%, dividend raised to $0.36, modestly increased leverage to ~7x, $6.3 billion portfolio ( ~$5.4B Agency RMBS, ~$900M Agency CMBS) and $453M unrestricted cash/unencumbered assets; market/return inputs included 10‑yr Treasury ~4.17%, 2–30 curve 137 bps (83 bps steeper YoY), 30‑yr mortgage rate ~6.25%, nominal spreads tightened ~15 bps in Q4 (+10 bps YTD), current coupon spread to a 5–10y SOFR blend near 140 bps (equating to levered gross returns in the mid‑ to upper‑teens) and Agency CMBS levered ROEs in the low double digits; funding and hedge metrics at year‑end were repo financing $5.6B (from $5.2B), hedge notional $4.9B (from $4.4B) with a hedge ratio ~87% (up from 85%), swaps comprising ~78% of hedges by notional and ~57% by dollar duration, and management flagged the GSEs’ $200B purchase program (with ~$24B of GSE net purchases in December) as an important support factor.Invesco Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 339.70M | 79.55M | 4.19M | -377.60M | 50.33M |
| Gross Profit | 328.40M | 79.55M | 4.19M | -377.60M | -62.53M |
| EBITDA | 321.14M | 310.38M | 222.84M | -331.44M | -80.16M |
| Net Income | 101.29M | 59.88M | -15.86M | -402.92M | -90.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.48B | 5.69B | 5.28B | 5.10B | 8.44B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 56.04M | 73.40M | 76.97M | 176.20M | 357.40M |
| Total Debt | 5.62B | 4.89B | 4.46B | 4.24B | 7.00B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.68B | 4.96B | 4.50B | 4.29B | 7.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 797.54M | 730.73M | 782.66M | 804.08M | 1.40B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 157.09M | 183.16M | 237.79M | 196.08M | 152.29M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 157.09M | 183.16M | 237.79M | 196.08M | 152.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -892.87M | -497.43M | -536.80M | 2.42B | 120.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 691.33M | 326.51M | 218.87M | -2.92B | -88.57M |
Invesco Mortgage Technical Analysis
Negative
7.71
Price Trends
8.33
Negative
7.96
Negative
7.32
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
40.00
Neutral
37.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IVR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.00, below the 50-day MA of 8.33, and above the 200-day MA of 7.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for IVR.
Invesco Mortgage Risk Analysis
Invesco Mortgage disclosed 87 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Invesco Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Invesco Mortgage Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $228.08M | 3.21 | 19.02% | 14.36% | 15.51% | 210.91% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
61 Neutral | $642.02M | 2.71 | 13.35% | 16.08% | -53.20% | 97.96% | |
59 Neutral | $596.27M | 11.32 | 5.52% | 10.48% | -10.86% | -5.90% | |
51 Neutral | $263.55M | -16.99 | -0.17% | 13.75% | -30.60% | 87.95% | |
49 Neutral | $394.50M | -11.67 | -3.80% | 11.33% | -24.37% | -19.19% | |
43 Neutral | $318.30M | -0.88 | -28.06% | ― | -65.32% | -325.73% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
IVR
Invesco Mortgage
7.71
1.39
21.96%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
4.76
0.41
9.50%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
6.10
-4.11
-40.25%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
7.61
0.35
4.75%
NREF
NexPoint Real Estate ate Finance
12.87
-0.49
-3.64%
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust
2.27
-1.46
-39.14%
Invesco Mortgage Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Invesco Mortgage Capital Adds Veteran Fixed Income Director
Positive
Mar 11, 2026
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. has expanded and reshaped its board, appointing veteran fixed income strategist Stephanie J. Larosiliere as an executive director effective March 6, 2026, while executive director Carolyn Gibbs is set to retire from t...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Invesco Mortgage Launches New Expanded Equity Distribution Program
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 23, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc., its operating partnership and its external manager entered into a new equity distribution agreement allowing the company to sell up to 40,000,000 shares of common stock from time to time through...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Invesco Mortgage Declares February Dividend, Updates Portfolio Metrics
Neutral
Feb 13, 2026
On February 13, 2026, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. declared a cash dividend of $0.12 per share for February 2026, payable on March 13, 2026 to stockholders of record as of February 24, 2026, and reported preliminary, unaudited financial figures a...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Invesco Mortgage Capital Raises Dividend and Shifts to Monthly
Positive
Dec 18, 2025
On December 18, 2025, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. announced that its board declared a cash dividend of $0.36 per share of common stock for the fourth quarter of 2025, payable on January 23, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 29, 2025...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.