Invesco Mortgage (IVR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $605.88M
• Dividend Yield: 16.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.69M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: 48624.87%
• EPS Growth: -57.39%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 70,945,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,841,657
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,690,033
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.41
• P/FCF Ratio: 2.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 9.32
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 39.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 27.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -182.67
• 1Y Price Target: $9.00
• Price Target Upside: 1.81% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▼(-3.85% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by weak profitability and high leverage on the balance sheet, despite strong revenue recovery and improving cash flow. Technicals support the stock’s uptrend but appear somewhat overextended (high RSI). Valuation is helped by the very high dividend yield, with earnings-call commentary and the dividend policy change providing additional (but secondary) support.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates a recovery and potential for sustained income generation, enhancing the company's market position.

Improved Capital Structure

Raising capital through stock issuance strengthens the balance sheet, providing more flexibility for future investments and operations.

Positive Agency CMBS Performance

Improved performance in agency CMBS suggests better risk-adjusted returns, supporting long-term profitability and investment appeal.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk, especially in a rising interest rate environment, potentially impacting financial stability.

Low Profitability Margins

Low profitability margins indicate challenges in converting revenue to profit, which may hinder long-term financial health and growth.

Persistent Inflation

Persistent inflation can erode purchasing power and increase costs, impacting profitability and operational efficiency over time.

Invesco Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in, financing, and managing mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. It invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; RMBS and CMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; credit risk transfer securities that are unsecured obligations issued by government-sponsored enterprises; residential and commercial mortgage loans; and other real estate-related financing arrangements. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Invesco Mortgage generates revenue primarily through interest income from its investments in mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. The company earns income by holding these securities, which typically provide regular interest payments. Additionally, IVR may also benefit from capital gains when it sells securities at a profit. The company's revenue model is influenced by the interest rate environment, as changes in rates can affect the value of its holdings and the yield on new investments. Furthermore, IVR may engage in hedging strategies to manage interest rate risk, which can also impact its financial performance. The company may have partnerships with financial institutions and investment firms that facilitate its investment strategies and capital management.

Invesco Mortgage Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Invesco Mortgage's financial performance is mixed. Strong revenue growth is overshadowed by low profitability margins and high leverage, which pose financial risks. Cash flow generation shows improvement, but the company needs to stabilize earnings and reduce debt for better financial health.

Income Statement

Invesco Mortgage's income statement shows significant volatility. The TTM revenue growth rate is strong at 58.59%, indicating a recovery from previous periods. However, the net profit margin is low at 1.71% for TTM, reflecting challenges in converting revenue to profit. Historical EBIT and EBITDA margins have been inconsistent, with recent negative EBITDA. The company needs to stabilize its profitability metrics to improve its financial health.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.69 in the TTM, which poses a risk in a rising interest rate environment. The return on equity is low at 0.48% for TTM, indicating inefficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio is not provided, but the high debt levels suggest limited equity buffer. Improving equity and reducing debt would enhance financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend with a 4.24% growth in free cash flow in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.03, indicating potential issues in cash generation relative to accounting profits. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.0, suggesting good cash conversion. Continued focus on cash flow generation is crucial for financial resilience.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	144.23M	79.55M	4.19M	-377.60M	50.33M	-1.65B
Gross Profit	203.26M	79.55M	4.19M	-377.60M	29.25M	-1.65B
EBITDA	-30.92M	310.38M	0.00	-331.44M	-80.16M	0.00
Net Income	53.35M	59.88M	-15.86M	-402.92M	-90.00M	-1.67B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.96B	5.69B	5.28B	5.10B	8.44B	8.63B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	180.72M	73.40M	76.97M	176.20M	357.40M	392.58M
Total Debt	5.15B	4.89B	0.00	4.24B	7.00B	7.23B
Total Liabilities	5.19B	4.96B	4.50B	4.29B	7.04B	7.27B
Stockholders Equity	769.58M	730.73M	782.66M	804.08M	1.40B	1.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	159.13M	183.16M	237.79M	196.08M	152.29M	170.46M
Operating Cash Flow	159.13M	183.16M	237.79M	196.08M	152.29M	170.46M
Investing Cash Flow	28.86M	-497.43M	-536.80M	2.42B	120.75M	11.55B
Financing Cash Flow	-175.73M	326.51M	218.87M	-2.92B	-88.57M	-11.62B

Invesco Mortgage Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.84
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For IVR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.30, above the 50-day MA of 7.84, and above the 200-day MA of 7.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.20 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for IVR.

Invesco Mortgage Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NREF	74 Outperform	$251.47M	4.97	27.37%	14.36%	15.51%	210.91%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
TRTX	64 Neutral	$707.48M	13.87	5.87%	10.48%	-10.86%	-5.90%
IVR	56 Neutral	$605.88M	16.76	6.56%	16.08%	48624.87%	-57.39%
ACRE	53 Neutral	$275.68M	-34.13	-1.42%	13.75%	-30.60%	87.95%
KREF	52 Neutral	$523.20M	-23.03	-0.16%	11.33%	-24.37%	-19.19%
CMTG	47 Neutral	$389.81M	-1.06	-19.24%	―	-65.32%	-325.73%

Invesco Mortgage Corporate Events

Invesco Mortgage Capital Raises Dividend and Shifts to Monthly

On December 18, 2025, Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. announced that its board declared a cash dividend of $0.36 per share of common stock for the fourth quarter of 2025, payable on January 23, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 29, 2025, marking an increase that management said reflects the strength of the firm’s investment portfolio, liquidity and capital structure amid a more favorable backdrop for Agency MBS. The company also unveiled a shift in its dividend policy from quarterly to monthly distributions beginning in the first quarter of 2026, with the first monthly dividend declaration expected on January 15, 2026, a move aimed at providing more timely and consistent income to common shareholders and potentially enhancing its appeal to income-focused investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (IVR) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Invesco Mortgage stock, see the IVR Stock Forecast page.

Invesco Mortgage Reports Strong Q3 2025 Turnaround

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a significant turnaround with a net income per common share of $0.74, compared to a net loss of $0.40 in the previous quarter. The company achieved a 4.5% increase in book value per common share to $8.41, driven by strong performance in Agency RMBS due to declining interest rate volatility and robust investor demand, resulting in a positive economic return of 8.7% for the quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (IVR) stock is a Hold with a $7.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Invesco Mortgage stock, see the IVR Stock Forecast page.