Tpg Re Finance (TRTX)
NYSE:TRTX
Top Page
Tpg Re Finance
(NYSE:TRTX)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▲(11.52% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is held back primarily by uneven financial performance (notably the sharp 2025 revenue decline and prior earnings volatility) and weak near-term technical momentum. These are partly offset by attractive income valuation (high dividend yield) and a generally constructive earnings call highlighting strong originations, solid credit performance, and improved funding, albeit with rising leverage and some execution risks.
Positive Factors
Strong Origination & Net Asset Growth
Sizable, repeat-borrower originations and late‑cycle funding drove 25% net asset growth to $4.1B. Durable origination capability supports sustained interest income, portfolio scale and market presence, improving capacity to drive earnings through loan yields over cycles.
Negative Factors
Sharp 2025 Revenue Decline
An ~80% revenue drop materially weakens earnings quality and visibility; suggests results were influenced by non‑recurring items or timing shifts. Such volatility makes forward distributable income harder to predict and raises execution risk for maintaining dividend levels.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Origination & Net Asset Growth
Sizable, repeat-borrower originations and late‑cycle funding drove 25% net asset growth to $4.1B. Durable origination capability supports sustained interest income, portfolio scale and market presence, improving capacity to drive earnings through loan yields over cycles.
Read all positive factors
Tpg Re Finance (TRTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$632.32M
Dividend Yield10.48%
Average Volume (3M)722.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.4
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth-10.86%
EPS Growth-5.90%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.24
Shares Outstanding78,354,050
10 Day Avg. Volume620,529
30 Day Avg. Volume722,689
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.44
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)2.05
P/FCF Ratio7.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.00Price Target Upside23.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$153.78M
Tpg Re Finance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc., a commercial real estate finance company, originates, acquires, and manages commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate-related debt instruments in the United States. It invests in commercial mortgage loa...
How the Company Makes Money
TPG RE Finance generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its mortgage loans and other real estate-related debt investments. The company typically funds its investments with a combination of equity and debt financing, allowi...
Tpg Re Finance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call contained multiple strong operational and financial highlights: sizable originations ($1.9B), 25% net asset growth, full-year distributable earnings covering the dividend (1.01x), a 100% performing loan book, improved liability profile (82% non-mark-to-market) and a lower cost of funds. These positives are tempered by some near-term headwinds and execution items including a modest q/q decline in book value (-1.6%), an increase in leverage (3.02x) as the company moves toward a higher target, spread compression on new loan originations (~50 bps below portfolio average), a small increase in CECL reserves, one loan downgrade (~1% of commitments), remaining REO to be sold and market perception with the stock trading at ~20% discount to book. Overall, the operational momentum, strong originations, liquidity and capital markets execution materially outweigh the noted lowlights, supporting a constructive outlook for 2026.Positive Updates
Strong Origination and Investment Activity in 2025
Originated 20 loans with total commitments of $1,900,000,000 in 2025; fourth quarter alone closed $927,000,000 of new loans (62% multifamily, 38% industrial). Over 90% of new originations were with repeat borrowers, demonstrating deep borrower relationships.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Book Value Decline
Book value per common share decreased quarter-over-quarter to $11.07 from $11.25, a decline of approximately 1.6%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Origination and Investment Activity in 2025
Originated 20 loans with total commitments of $1,900,000,000 in 2025; fourth quarter alone closed $927,000,000 of new loans (62% multifamily, 38% industrial). Over 90% of new originations were with repeat borrowers, demonstrating deep borrower relationships.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to continued active origination and balance‑sheet deployment in 2026, aiming to grow net assets and move leverage toward a target of roughly 3.5–3.75x (current total leverage 3.02x vs 2.64x prior quarter) to reach near‑full investment while using $1.6B of available financing capacity, $143M near‑term liquidity (cash $72.6M net of $15M covenant holdback, $51.4M undrawn capacity, $4M CLO reinvest proceeds) and $127.1M of unencumbered loans available to pledge; management expects continued origination velocity (Q4 2025 closes of $927M — 62% multifamily / 38% industrial; full‑year 2025: 20 loans, $1.9B commitments, weighted average credit spread 2.82%, >90% repeat borrowers) against a supportive backdrop (10‑year Treasury just above 4%) and attractive funding (two 2025 CRE CLOs TRTX FL6 & FL7 totaling $2.2B and a Q4 series CLO with WAC of ~1.67%, helping drive cost of funds down 18 bps YoY to 1.82%); other key metrics underpinning guidance include 25% YoY net asset growth to $4.1B (from $3.3B), 100% performing loan portfolio with weighted avg risk rating 3.0, CECL reserves at 180 bps, distributable earnings $76.8M / $0.97 per share (coverage 1.01x on $0.96 dividend), GAAP net income $45.5M / $0.57 per share, and book value per share of $11.07.Tpg Re Finance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 332.57M | 148.97M | -73.52M | 305.71M | 240.72M |
| Gross Profit | 263.75M | 113.34M | -81.05M | 142.98M | 217.59M |
| EBITDA | 262.38M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 305.71M | 240.72M |
| Net Income | 60.32M | 74.33M | -116.63M | -60.07M | 138.55M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.41B | 3.73B | 4.21B | 5.55B | 5.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 88.27M | 190.16M | 206.38M | 254.05M | 260.63M |
| Total Debt | 3.29B | 2.57B | 3.04B | 4.16B | 3.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.34B | 2.62B | 3.09B | 4.22B | 3.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.07B | 1.11B | 1.12B | 1.32B | 1.46B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 90.36M | 106.81M | 74.76M | 95.44M | 132.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 90.36M | 112.13M | 80.13M | 100.50M | 132.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -789.71M | 440.51M | 1.10B | -452.56M | -342.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 597.13M | -569.18M | -1.22B | 345.34M | 152.10M |
Tpg Re Finance Technical Analysis
Neutral
8.07
Price Trends
8.15
Negative
8.38
Negative
8.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
55.73
Neutral
85.27
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRTX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.07 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.79, below the 50-day MA of 8.15, and below the 200-day MA of 8.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TRTX.
Tpg Re Finance Risk Analysis
Tpg Re Finance disclosed 108 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tpg Re Finance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tpg Re Finance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
59 Neutral | $632.32M | 42.40 | 5.52% | 10.48% | -10.86% | -5.90% | |
54 Neutral | $701.97M | 9.99 | 5.60% | 13.31% | -0.93% | -1.92% | |
49 Neutral | $411.31M | -11.67 | -3.80% | 11.33% | -24.37% | -19.19% | |
48 Neutral | $741.19M | -8.93 | -5.86% | 13.13% | 34.68% | -251.91% | |
46 Neutral | $257.35M | -1.57 | -12.90% | 26.82% | -43.56% | -166.72% | |
43 Neutral | $356.16M | -0.88 | -28.06% | ― | -65.32% | -325.73% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
8.07
1.80
28.79%
RWT
Redwood
5.93
1.33
29.00%
RC
Ready Capital
1.58
-2.59
-62.06%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
6.36
-1.56
-19.72%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
8.67
-1.05
-10.77%
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust
2.54
0.06
2.42%
Tpg Re Finance Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
TPG RE Finance Closes $1.1 Billion CRE CLO Deal
Positive
Nov 21, 2025
On November 17, 2025, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. announced the closing of a $1.1 billion Commercial Real Estate Collateralized Loan Obligation (CRE CLO) named TRTX 2025-FL7. This transaction involved placing approximately $957 million of investmen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.