Tpg Re Finance (TRTX)
NYSE:TRTX
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Tpg Re Finance (TRTX) AI Stock Analysis

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TRTX

Tpg Re Finance

(NYSE:TRTX)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
▲(7.10% Upside)
TRTX's overall stock score is driven primarily by its strong earnings call performance and attractive valuation, despite financial performance challenges due to high leverage and inconsistent profitability. Technical analysis indicates limited momentum, but the high dividend yield and potential undervaluation provide a positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Loan Portfolio Growth
Significant loan portfolio growth indicates strong demand for TRTX's financing solutions, enhancing its market position and revenue potential.
Capital Structure Optimization
Optimizing capital structure through non-recourse financing strengthens TRTX's financial flexibility and supports sustainable growth.
Leadership Transition
Leadership transition ensures continuity and strategic execution, with experienced personnel stepping into key roles, supporting long-term stability.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Significant leverage increases financial risk and could constrain future investment capacity, impacting long-term financial health.
Negative Free Cash Flow Growth
Declining free cash flow growth may limit TRTX's ability to fund operations and investments, affecting its long-term financial sustainability.
Sector-Specific Challenges
Uneven recovery in real estate markets could hinder TRTX's growth prospects and profitability, impacting its competitive position.

Tpg Re Finance (TRTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Tpg Re Finance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTPG RE Finance (TRTX) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on providing financing solutions for commercial real estate. The company primarily invests in, originates, and manages a diversified portfolio of real estate-related assets, including mortgage loans and other debt instruments secured by commercial properties. TRTX operates within the broader sectors of commercial real estate and finance, offering innovative products such as first mortgage loans, mezzanine loans, and preferred equity investments to institutional investors and property owners seeking capital for their real estate projects.
How the Company Makes MoneyTPG RE Finance generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its mortgage loans and other real estate-related debt investments. The company typically funds its investments with a combination of equity and debt financing, allowing it to leverage its capital base. Key revenue streams include interest payments received from borrowers, fees associated with loan origination and servicing, and potential gains from the sale of real estate assets. Additionally, TRTX may engage in strategic partnerships with other financial institutions or real estate firms to expand its investment opportunities and enhance its market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

Tpg Re Finance Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted TRTX's strong investment activity, stable credit profile, and capital structure optimization, contributing to loan portfolio growth. However, challenges such as the trading discount to book value and uneven real estate market recovery were noted. Overall, the sentiment was leaning towards positive due to significant investment achievements and stable financial health.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Investment Activity
TRTX closed $279 million of new investments during the third quarter and another $197 million subsequent to quarter end, with over $670 million of loans expected to close in the fourth quarter. Year-to-date closed loans and expected Q4 loans total over $1.8 billion.
Loan Portfolio Growth
The loan portfolio grew by $1.2 billion or 12% year-over-year, with a focus on multifamily and industrial assets representing approximately 91% of the $1.1 billion of closed and in-process investments.
Stable Credit Profile and Liquidity
TRTX maintained a stable credit profile with a 100% performing loan portfolio and no negative credit migration. The company ended the quarter with near-term liquidity of $216.4 million.
Capital Structure Optimization
The company announced the pricing of TRTX 2025 FL7, a $1.1 billion managed CRE CLO, providing non-mark-to-market, nonrecourse term financing with a 30-month reinvestment period.
Negative Updates
Trading Discount to Book Value
TRTX shares currently trade at a 20% discount to book value, indicating a potential undervaluation of the company's stock.
Sector-Specific Challenges
The real estate equity market recovery continues to be uneven across property types and geographies, affecting overall market dynamics.
Company Guidance
During the TPG Real Estate Finance Trust (TRTX) third-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided substantial guidance on its performance and strategic direction. TRTX reported a GAAP net income of $18.4 million, or $0.23 per common share, and distributable earnings of $19.9 million, or $0.25 per share, covering the quarterly dividend of $0.24 per share. The book value per share rose slightly to $11.25, aided by a share repurchase program. The company closed $279 million in new investments during the quarter, with an additional $197 million closed after quarter-end, and plans for over $670 million in loans expected to close in the fourth quarter. Year-to-date, TRTX has closed $1.1 billion in loans, with expectations to close over $1.8 billion in 2025. The investment strategy is focused primarily on multifamily and industrial assets, which make up 91% of closed and in-process investments. The company achieved an average loan-to-value ratio of 65% and a credit spread of 3.22% for third-quarter loans. TRTX's portfolio grew by $1.2 billion or 12% year-over-year, with plans to prudently increase the debt-to-equity ratio to support further growth. Additionally, the company announced the pricing of a $1.1 billion CRE CLO, enhancing its financing capacity. The call also highlighted the transition of leadership roles, with Bob Foley retiring and assuming a senior adviser role, while Brandon Fox and Ryan Roberto step into key leadership positions.

Tpg Re Finance Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tpg Re Finance demonstrates strong revenue growth and efficient cost management, but faces challenges with high leverage and inconsistent profitability. While cash flows are generally robust, negative free cash flow growth could pose future liquidity risks. The company should focus on reducing debt levels and stabilizing earnings to enhance financial health.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The income statement shows a strong gross profit margin of 89.6% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin of 45.9% is inflated due to non-operating factors, as evidenced by the negative net income in previous years. Revenue growth is robust at 54.3% TTM, but historical volatility raises concerns about sustainability.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, peaking at 3.15 in 2022, which indicates significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is low at 5.78% TTM, suggesting limited profitability relative to shareholder investment. The equity ratio is moderate, providing some stability amidst high leverage.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a stable operating cash flow to net income ratio of 38.5 TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, free cash flow growth is negative, highlighting potential liquidity challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy at 95.3%, suggesting efficient cash conversion.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue215.29M148.97M-73.52M305.71M240.72M80.81M
Gross Profit196.30M113.34M-81.05M142.98M217.59M58.81M
EBITDA197.70M0.000.00305.71M240.72M-29.28M
Net Income66.63M74.33M-116.63M-60.07M138.55M-136.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.06B3.73B4.21B5.55B5.22B4.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments93.59M190.16M206.38M254.05M260.63M319.67M
Total Debt2.93B2.57B3.04B4.16B3.71B3.39B
Total Liabilities2.98B2.62B3.09B4.22B3.75B3.44B
Stockholders Equity1.08B1.11B1.12B1.32B1.46B1.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow86.70M106.81M74.76M95.44M132.17M132.09M
Operating Cash Flow91.20M112.13M80.13M100.50M132.17M132.09M
Investing Cash Flow-546.03M440.51M1.10B-452.56M-342.90M964.59M
Financing Cash Flow322.49M-569.18M-1.22B345.34M152.10M-856.67M

Tpg Re Finance Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price8.87
Price Trends
50DMA
8.82
Positive
100DMA
8.63
Positive
200DMA
8.03
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Negative
RSI
50.18
Neutral
STOCH
53.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRTX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.89, above the 50-day MA of 8.82, and above the 200-day MA of 8.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TRTX.

Tpg Re Finance Risk Analysis

Tpg Re Finance disclosed 111 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tpg Re Finance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tpg Re Finance Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
64
Neutral
$700.44M13.735.87%10.73%-10.86%-5.90%
56
Neutral
$816.07M12.535.88%14.20%-0.93%-1.92%
54
Neutral
$546.20M-0.16%12.03%-24.37%-19.19%
45
Neutral
$652.41M-9.19%14.31%34.68%-251.91%
44
Neutral
$433.28M-19.24%-65.32%-325.73%
41
Neutral
$429.63M-14.78%23.58%-43.56%-166.72%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
8.87
0.98
12.42%
RWT
Redwood
5.03
-1.29
-20.41%
RC
Ready Capital
2.52
-3.88
-60.63%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
8.09
-2.21
-21.46%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
9.88
-1.54
-13.49%
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust
2.92
-3.64
-55.49%

Tpg Re Finance Corporate Events

TPG RE Finance Trust Reports Strong Q3 Performance
Oct 30, 2025

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. is a commercial real estate finance company that primarily focuses on originating, acquiring, and managing first mortgage loans secured by institutional properties in the United States. It operates under the management of TPG RE Finance Trust Management, L.P., part of TPG Real Estate.

TRTX Earnings Call: Strong Investments Amid Market Challenges
Oct 30, 2025

During the recent earnings call, TPG Real Estate Finance Trust (TRTX) conveyed a generally positive sentiment, underscored by robust investment activity and a stable financial outlook. Despite facing challenges such as a trading discount to book value and an uneven recovery in the real estate market, the company highlighted significant achievements in investment and financial health, which contributed to an optimistic tone throughout the call.

Executive/Board Changes
TPG RE Finance Appoints Edward Goldthorpe to Board
Neutral
Oct 23, 2025

On October 22, 2025, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. appointed Edward ‘Ted’ Goldthorpe to its board of directors, where he will serve on the audit and nominating and corporate governance committees. Mr. Goldthorpe brings extensive experience from his roles as president and CEO of various business development companies and alternative asset management firms. The company also entered into an indemnification agreement with Mr. Goldthorpe on October 23, 2025, ensuring he is protected to the fullest extent allowed by Maryland law in his new role.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRTX) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tpg Re Finance stock, see the TRTX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
TPG RE Finance Announces CFO Transition Plan
Neutral
Sep 15, 2025

On September 15, 2025, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. announced the retirement of its Chief Financial Officer, Robert R. Foley, at the end of the year. Foley will transition his responsibilities to Brandon Fox, the current Chief Accounting Officer, who will serve as interim CFO starting October 1, 2025. This leadership change is expected to support the company’s ongoing strategy and shareholder value delivery, as Fox brings extensive financial expertise and familiarity with TRTX’s operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRTX) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tpg Re Finance stock, see the TRTX Stock Forecast page.

Stock Buyback
TPG RE Finance Approves New $25M Share Buyback
Positive
Sep 4, 2025

On September 4, 2025, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. announced the approval of a new share repurchase program by its board of directors, authorizing the repurchase of up to $25 million of the company’s common stock. This program follows a previously authorized $25 million program that was fully utilized during the third quarter of 2025, indicating the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to shareholders through stock repurchases.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRTX) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tpg Re Finance stock, see the TRTX Stock Forecast page.

TPG RE Finance Trust Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results
Jul 31, 2025

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. is a commercial real estate finance company that focuses on originating, acquiring, and managing primarily first mortgage loans secured by institutional properties across the United States. The company operates within the real estate finance sector and is managed by TPG RE Finance Trust Management, L.P., part of the global asset management firm TPG Inc.

TRTX Earnings Call: Strong Growth Amid Market Challenges
Jul 31, 2025

The recent earnings call for TPG Real Estate Finance Trust (TRTX) painted a picture of robust financial health and strategic growth, despite some challenges posed by market uncertainties. The company showcased significant achievements in loan growth, liquidity, and REO sales, reflecting a positive sentiment overall. However, the call also highlighted ongoing market uncertainties and limited acquisition loan activity as areas of concern.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2025