Want to see TRTX full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Tpg Re Finance
(NYSE:TRTX)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▼(-1.39% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
TRTX earns a mid-range score primarily due to a leveraged financial profile and declining revenue that temper otherwise improved profitability and steady cash generation. The latest earnings call was a meaningful positive, highlighting strong credit performance, dividend coverage, liquidity, and a healthy origination pipeline. Valuation is supported by a very high dividend yield, while technicals are softer in the near term with the stock trading below key short-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Strong credit performance
A 100% performing portfolio with stable risk ratings and minimal CECL reserve growth materially reduces credit loss risk. This stability supports predictable interest income, lowers provisioning volatility, and underpins durable distributable earnings and dividend coverage over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High leverage / balance-sheet sensitivity
A debt-heavy capital structure (debt materially exceeding equity) increases sensitivity to interest-rate moves and asset stress. High leverage constrains financial flexibility, raises refinancing and covenant risk, and limits the firm's ability to absorb sustained shocks without dilutive or costly capital actions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong credit performance
A 100% performing portfolio with stable risk ratings and minimal CECL reserve growth materially reduces credit loss risk. This stability supports predictable interest income, lowers provisioning volatility, and underpins durable distributable earnings and dividend coverage over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Tpg Re Finance (TRTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$611.85M
Dividend Yield12.05%
Average Volume (3M)685.43K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.4
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth3.78%
EPS Growth-15.19%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.55
Shares Outstanding76,769,010
10 Day Avg. Volume628,427
30 Day Avg. Volume685,427
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.63
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)2.05
P/FCF Ratio8.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.00Price Target Upside16.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$149.99M
Tpg Re Finance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) operates as a financial institution primarily engaged in the commercial real estate sector within the United States. Its core business involves generating, purchasing, and actively overseeing a variety of debt ins...
How the Company Makes Money
TRTX primarily makes money from net interest income earned on its commercial real estate loan portfolio. The core revenue stream is interest income and related fees received from borrowers on originated or acquired loans (most commonly first mortg...
Tpg Re Finance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a positive tone: strong credit metrics (100% performing, stable risk ratings, CECL essentially flat), meaningful year‑over‑year balance sheet growth (+26%), a robust origination pipeline ($535M in executed term sheets; $1.25B committed since Q4 2025), solid liquidity ($173M) and active share repurchases supporting book value. Headwinds mentioned were modest: yield‑curve driven pressure on new acquisitions, a flat quarter‑over‑quarter net asset result (driven by seasonality and large repayments), a small rise in leverage (3.02x to 3.1x), and competitive dynamics in target sectors. On balance the positives (credit strength, pipeline, liquidity, capital actions and YoY growth) outweigh the limited near‑term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Credit Performance and Asset Quality
100% performing loan portfolio at quarter end; weighted average risk rating unchanged at 3.0; no negative credit migration during the quarter; CECL reserve essentially flat, decreasing slightly from 180 bps to 179 bps (down 1 basis point).
Negative Updates
Modest Pressure on New Acquisition Activity
Steepening of the yield curve has put modest pressure on new acquisition activity, which contributed to a lighter quarter‑to‑quarter origination pace.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Credit Performance and Asset Quality
100% performing loan portfolio at quarter end; weighted average risk rating unchanged at 3.0; no negative credit migration during the quarter; CECL reserve essentially flat, decreasing slightly from 180 bps to 179 bps (down 1 basis point).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that it expects to finish 2026 with a substantial majority of the balance sheet comprised of 2023 and newer originations (currently 67%), continued growth in net assets and earnings power, and planned REO dispositions this year (REO contributing roughly $0.02–$0.03 per quarter). Key metrics supporting that guidance: Q1 GAAP net income $15.2M and distributable earnings $19.5M ($0.25/share) with 1.04x coverage of the $0.24 quarterly dividend; year-to-date repurchases (through Apr. 27) of >1.0M shares for $8.7M at $8.07 (Q1 repurchases 556,592 shares for $4.5M at $8.06), book value $11.06; loans closed YTD $324M with $535M of executed term sheets (since Q4’25: 12 loans, $1.25B); Q1 originations $148.4M at a 2.73% weighted credit spread and a subsequent $175.4M loan at 3.0%; Q1 repayments $123.6M (including $92.7M full repayments) and post-quarter office repayments $262.3M reducing office exposure to <5%. Portfolio is 100% performing with weighted risk rating 3.0 and CECL ~179 bps; liquidity $172.8M (cash $77M net of $15M held, $39.7M undrawn, $41.2M CLO reinvestment) plus $106.8M pledgeable loans; liability profile 78% non‑mark‑to‑market across 10 financings, weighted cost of funds 1.80%, debt‑to‑equity 3.1x and $1.5B financing capacity.Tpg Re Finance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 266.79M | 332.57M | 350.93M | 390.17M | 305.71M | 240.72M |
| Gross Profit | 220.66M | 263.75M | 281.81M | 356.85M | 275.10M | 217.59M |
| EBITDA | 268.10M | 262.38M | 291.14M | 162.39M | 101.22M | 224.70M |
| Net Income | 58.04M | 60.32M | 74.33M | -116.63M | -60.07M | 138.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.60B | 4.41B | 3.73B | 4.21B | 5.55B | 5.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 66.21M | 88.27M | 190.16M | 206.38M | 254.05M | 260.63M |
| Total Debt | 3.51B | 3.29B | 2.57B | 3.04B | 4.16B | 3.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.55B | 3.34B | 2.62B | 3.09B | 4.22B | 3.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.04B | 1.07B | 1.11B | 1.12B | 1.32B | 1.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 82.89M | 84.22M | 106.81M | 74.76M | 95.44M | 132.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 92.64M | 90.36M | 112.13M | 80.13M | 100.50M | 132.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -552.64M | -789.71M | 440.51M | 1.10B | -452.56M | -342.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 359.79M | 597.13M | -569.18M | -1.22B | 345.34M | 152.10M |
Tpg Re Finance Technical Analysis
Negative
8.62
Price Trends
8.35
Negative
8.12
Negative
8.19
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Positive
37.07
Neutral
11.14
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.47, above the 50-day MA of 8.35, and above the 200-day MA of 8.19, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TRTX.
Tpg Re Finance Risk Analysis
Tpg Re Finance disclosed 108 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tpg Re Finance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tpg Re Finance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
60 Neutral | $611.85M | 14.43 | 5.45% | 11.14% | 3.78% | -15.19% | |
55 Neutral | $630.31M | 16.80 | 4.45% | 14.21% | 11.14% | -54.56% | |
51 Neutral | $410.72M | -2.12 | -16.70% | 11.58% | -19.57% | -397.76% | |
46 Neutral | $574.02M | -214.55 | 0.59% | 14.63% | -8.93% | 93.51% | |
44 Neutral | $236.26M | -0.45 | -31.42% | 10.54% | -56.96% | -78.75% | |
43 Neutral | $249.72M | -0.46 | -35.83% | ― | 79.83% | -27.98% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
8.00
0.05
0.65%
RWT
Redwood
4.69
-0.28
-5.65%
RC
Ready Capital
1.59
-2.39
-60.09%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
7.15
-1.06
-12.92%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
7.69
-2.01
-20.75%
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust
1.73
-1.16
-40.14%
Tpg Re Finance Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TPG RE Finance Updates Investors at Nareit REITweek 2026
Neutral
Jun 1, 2026
On June 1, 2026, TPG RE Finance Trust disclosed that Chief Executive Officer Doug Bouquard and the executive management team would meet investors during Nareit’s REITweek 2026 Investor Conference to discuss the company’s strategy and o...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
TPG RE Finance Shareholders Reelect Board, Approve Pay
Positive
May 21, 2026
At its May 19, 2026 annual meeting of stockholders, TPG RE Finance Trust shareholders elected eight directors to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, reaffirming the company’s existing board leadership structure. The vote tallies show broad,...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
TPG RE Finance Secures New Senior Financing Facilities
Positive
May 15, 2026
On May 14, 2026, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. closed a new senior secured financing package comprising a $400 million Term Loan B maturing in 2033 and a $100 million revolving credit facility maturing in 2031, arranged with Wells Fargo as administra...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.