Tpg Re Finance (TRTX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $695.74M
• Dividend Yield: 10.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 693.22K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.49
• Revenue Growth: -10.86%
• EPS Growth: -5.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 78,261,345
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 645,179
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 693,219
• PEG Ratio: -0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.59
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.88
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 16.64
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 19.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.77
• 1Y Price Target: $10.13
• Price Target Upside: 14.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.50 ▲(7.34% Upside)

The score is driven by constructive earnings-call fundamentals (dividend coverage, strong origination activity, and improved financing flexibility) and supportive valuation (high dividend yield with a moderate P/E). These positives are tempered by weaker financial-risk signals from high leverage/low ROE and only neutral-to-soft technical momentum.

Positive Factors

Loan Portfolio Growth

Significant loan portfolio growth indicates strong demand for TRTX's financing solutions, enhancing its market position and revenue potential.

Capital Structure Optimization

Optimizing capital structure through non-recourse financing strengthens TRTX's financial flexibility and supports sustainable growth.

Leadership Transition

Leadership transition ensures continuity and strategic execution, with experienced personnel stepping into key roles, supporting long-term stability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

Significant leverage increases financial risk and could constrain future investment capacity, impacting long-term financial health.

Negative Free Cash Flow Growth

Declining free cash flow growth may limit TRTX's ability to fund operations and investments, affecting its long-term financial sustainability.

Sector-Specific Challenges

Uneven recovery in real estate markets could hinder TRTX's growth prospects and profitability, impacting its competitive position.

Tpg Re Finance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc., a commercial real estate finance company, originates, acquires, and manages commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate-related debt instruments in the United States. It invests in commercial mortgage loans; subordinate mortgage interests, mezzanine loans, secured real estate securities, note financing, preferred equity, and miscellaneous debt instruments; and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations and commercial mortgage-backed securities secured by properties primarily in the office, multifamily, life science, mixed-use, hospitality, industrial, and retail real estate sectors. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is based in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

TPG RE Finance generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its mortgage loans and other real estate-related debt investments. The company typically funds its investments with a combination of equity and debt financing, allowing it to leverage its capital base. Key revenue streams include interest payments received from borrowers, fees associated with loan origination and servicing, and potential gains from the sale of real estate assets. Additionally, TRTX may engage in strategic partnerships with other financial institutions or real estate firms to expand its investment opportunities and enhance its market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

Tpg Re Finance Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tpg Re Finance demonstrates strong revenue growth and efficient cost management, but faces challenges with high leverage and inconsistent profitability. While cash flows are generally robust, negative free cash flow growth could pose future liquidity risks. The company should focus on reducing debt levels and stabilizing earnings to enhance financial health.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a strong gross profit margin of 89.6% for TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin of 45.9% is inflated due to non-operating factors, as evidenced by the negative net income in previous years. Revenue growth is robust at 54.3% TTM, but historical volatility raises concerns about sustainability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, peaking at 3.15 in 2022, which indicates significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is low at 5.78% TTM, suggesting limited profitability relative to shareholder investment. The equity ratio is moderate, providing some stability amidst high leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a stable operating cash flow to net income ratio of 38.5 TTM, indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. However, free cash flow growth is negative, highlighting potential liquidity challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains healthy at 95.3%, suggesting efficient cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	211.13M	148.97M	-73.52M	305.71M	240.72M	80.81M
Gross Profit	182.34M	113.34M	-81.05M	142.98M	217.59M	58.81M
EBITDA	197.70M	0.00	0.00	305.71M	240.72M	-29.28M
Net Income	66.63M	74.33M	-116.63M	-60.07M	138.55M	-136.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.06B	3.73B	4.21B	5.55B	5.22B	4.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	93.59M	190.16M	206.38M	254.05M	260.63M	319.67M
Total Debt	2.93B	2.57B	3.04B	4.16B	3.71B	3.39B
Total Liabilities	2.98B	2.62B	3.09B	4.22B	3.75B	3.44B
Stockholders Equity	1.08B	1.11B	1.12B	1.32B	1.46B	1.47B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	86.70M	106.81M	74.76M	95.44M	132.17M	132.09M
Operating Cash Flow	91.20M	112.13M	80.13M	100.50M	132.17M	132.09M
Investing Cash Flow	-546.03M	440.51M	1.10B	-452.56M	-342.90M	964.59M
Financing Cash Flow	322.49M	-569.18M	-1.22B	345.34M	152.10M	-856.67M

Tpg Re Finance Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.85
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRTX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.84, above the 50-day MA of 8.75, and above the 200-day MA of 8.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TRTX.

Tpg Re Finance Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
TRTX	64 Neutral	$695.74M	13.64	5.87%	10.48%	-10.86%	-5.90%
FBRT	61 Neutral	$811.17M	12.45	5.88%	13.31%	-0.93%	-1.92%
KREF	52 Neutral	$516.63M	-21.85	-0.16%	11.33%	-24.37%	-19.19%
RWT	49 Neutral	$698.02M	-6.51	-9.19%	13.13%	34.68%	-251.91%
CMTG	47 Neutral	$406.63M	-1.06	-19.24%	―	-65.32%	-325.73%
RC	44 Neutral	$330.74M	-1.01	-14.78%	26.82%	-43.56%	-166.72%

Tpg Re Finance Corporate Events

TPG RE Finance Closes $1.1 Billion CRE CLO Deal

On November 17, 2025, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. announced the closing of a $1.1 billion Commercial Real Estate Collateralized Loan Obligation (CRE CLO) named TRTX 2025-FL7. This transaction involved placing approximately $957 million of investment-grade securities with institutional investors, providing non-mark-to-market, non-recourse term financing. The issuance, which includes a 30-month reinvestment period and a weighted average interest rate of Term SOFR plus 1.67%, is expected to generate net cash proceeds of approximately $58.5 million for the company following the redemption of a previous CLO, TRTX 2021-FL4. This move is anticipated to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and support future investment opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRTX) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tpg Re Finance stock, see the TRTX Stock Forecast page.

TPG RE Finance to Present at Financial Conference

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. announced that its CEO, Doug Bouquard, and Interim CFO, Brandon Fox, will discuss the company’s strategy and operations at the Citizens JMP Securities Financial Services and Real Estate Conference. The investor presentation, scheduled for November 2025, aims to provide insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, although it does not include any new material investor information. This engagement is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to communicate with investors and stakeholders about its market positioning and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRTX) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tpg Re Finance stock, see the TRTX Stock Forecast page.

TPG RE Finance Appoints Edward Goldthorpe to Board

On October 22, 2025, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. appointed Edward ‘Ted’ Goldthorpe to its board of directors, where he will serve on the audit and nominating and corporate governance committees. Mr. Goldthorpe brings extensive experience from his roles as president and CEO of various business development companies and alternative asset management firms. The company also entered into an indemnification agreement with Mr. Goldthorpe on October 23, 2025, ensuring he is protected to the fullest extent allowed by Maryland law in his new role.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRTX) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tpg Re Finance stock, see the TRTX Stock Forecast page.