Tpg Re Finance (TRTX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $625.28M
• Dividend Yield: 12.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 719.65K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.78
• Revenue Growth: -13.64%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 62
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 79,857,376
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 522,994
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 719,649
• PEG Ratio: -1.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.67
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $8.67
• Price Target Upside: 14.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

TRTX's stock performance is bolstered by a strong earnings call and attractive valuation, indicating potential for growth. However, financial instability and high leverage present risks. Technical indicators show moderate momentum, and the stock appears undervalued with a high dividend yield, making it appealing to income-focused investors.

Positive Factors

Earnings Potential

TRTX should be in a position to increase the earnings run-rate given their liquidity, lower leverage and REO recycling.

Investment Activity

TRTX originated $242.0M across two new loans during 4Q, marking the second straight quarter of net portfolio growth.

Negative Factors

Earnings Performance

TRTX reported distributable earnings per share of $0.10, below expected $0.28 and consensus $0.27, driven by realized losses on new REO.

Foreclosure Concerns

A somewhat-sudden foreclosure on two previously 4-risk rated multifamily loans raises concerns.

Tpg Re Finance Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc., a commercial real estate finance company, originates, acquires, and manages commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate-related debt instruments in the United States. It invests in commercial mortgage loans; subordinate mortgage interests, mezzanine loans, secured real estate securities, note financing, preferred equity, and miscellaneous debt instruments; and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations and commercial mortgage-backed securities secured by properties primarily in the office, multifamily, life science, mixed-use, hospitality, industrial, and retail real estate sectors. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is based in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. generates revenue primarily through the interest income earned on its portfolio of commercial mortgage loans. The company provides financing to owners of commercial properties, and these loans are secured by real estate assets. TRTX earns interest from these loans, which is its main source of income. Additionally, the company may invest in other commercial real estate-related debt instruments, such as subordinated mortgage-backed securities and mezzanine loans, which can provide additional revenue streams. The company's performance and earnings are influenced by factors such as interest rate fluctuations, credit market conditions, and the overall health of the commercial real estate market. Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and real estate operators may also play a role in enhancing its investment opportunities and expanding its portfolio.

Tpg Re Finance Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tpg Re Finance exhibits a mixed financial picture. The income statement shows strong revenue growth but with past instability and exceptional circumstances in net income. The balance sheet indicates high leverage and asset shrinkage, although return on equity is strong. Cash flow statements demonstrate efficient cash generation, despite past inconsistencies.

Income Statement

The income statement reveals a volatile revenue trend with a significant growth in the TTM period compared to previous years. Gross profit margin stands strong at 74.69% for TTM. However, net income has fluctuated dramatically over the years, indicating instability. The net profit margin of 103.28% is due to exceptional circumstances in the TTM that may not be sustainable. The revenue growth rate from the previous year to TTM is a remarkable 54.05%, but historical volatility poses a risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet highlights a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.21, indicating significant leverage which can be risky. However, the equity ratio of 27.85% suggests a certain degree of balance in asset financing. Return on equity is a strong 64.63% for TTM, but past net income losses have impacted the overall financial stability. The company's asset base has decreased over the years, reflecting a potential concern for growth.

Cash Flow

Cash flow statements show strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.32, indicating efficient cash generation relative to income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.25 further supports cash profitability. However, free cash flow growth rate is negative when compared to previous periods, reflecting inconsistent cash flow management. Overall, the cash flow position is stable but with past fluctuations.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
69.05M	44.82M	27.70M	156.27M	169.81M	-27.66M
	Gross Profit
51.56M	44.82M	13.14M	142.98M	154.02M	-49.67M
	EBIT
9.64M	34.78M	2.60M	87.64B	139.61M	-136.52M
	EBITDA
-597.00K	0.00	0.00	76.56B	139.61M	-136.52M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
71.31M	59.67M	-116.63M	-60.07M	138.55M	-136.83M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
75.04M	190.16M	206.38M	5.23B	260.63M	319.67M
	Total Assets
3.36B	3.73B	4.21B	5.55B	5.22B	4.91B
	Total Debt
287.89M	2.57B	3.04B	4.16B	3.71B	3.39B
	Net Debt
212.85M	2.38B	2.83B	3.91B	3.45B	3.07B
	Total Liabilities
2.15B	2.62B	3.09B	4.22B	3.75B	3.64B
	Stockholders Equity
1.20B	1.11B	1.12B	1.32B	1.46B	1.27B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
89.45M	106.81M	74.76M	95.44M	132.17M	132.09M
	Operating Cash Flow
93.89M	112.13M	80.13M	100.50M	132.17M	132.09M
	Investing Cash Flow
82.54M	440.51M	1.10B	-452.56M	-342.90M	964.59M
	Financing Cash Flow
-16.36M	-569.18M	-1.22B	345.34M	152.10M	-856.67M

Tpg Re Finance Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.57
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.67, below the 50-day MA of 7.68, and below the 200-day MA of 8.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TRTX.

Tpg Re Finance Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TRTX	67 Neutral	$625.28M	11.24	6.22%	12.71%	-13.64%	―
ORC	61 Neutral	$763.78M	17.78	5.23%	20.87%	61.59%	―
Sector *	60 Neutral	$2.75B	10.29	0.33%	8508.22%	5.95%	-17.48%
KREF	54 Neutral	$632.52M	57.76	2.42%	11.31%	-16.46%	―
IVR	50 Neutral	$483.36M	17.61	6.55%	20.92%	137.36%	―
NYMT	50 Neutral	$637.51M	―	2.63%	12.29%	33.94%	96.99%
RWT	48 Neutral	$773.41M	27.39	2.92%	12.50%	6.72%	228.13%

Tpg Re Finance Corporate Events

TPG RE Finance Closes $1.1 Billion CRE CLO Deal

On March 28, 2025, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. closed a $1.1 billion Commercial Real Estate Collateralized Loan Obligation (CRE CLO) named TRTX 2025-FL6. This transaction involved the placement of $962.5 million of investment-grade securities with institutional investors, providing the company with term financing on a non-mark-to-market, non-recourse basis. The issuance includes a 30-month reinvestment period and resulted in net cash proceeds of approximately $191 million for investment and other corporate purposes. This move reflects TPG RE Finance’s strategic financial management and enhances its liquidity position, potentially impacting its market operations and stakeholder interests positively.

TPG RE Finance Announces $1.1 Billion CRE CLO Pricing

On March 12, 2025, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. announced the pricing of a $1.1 billion Commercial Real Estate Collateralized Loan Obligation (CRE CLO) named TRTX 2025-FL6. This issuance is expected to generate approximately $962.5 million in investment grade securities for institutional investors, providing the company with non-mark-to-market, non-recourse term financing. The transaction includes a 30-month reinvestment period and is expected to close around March 28, 2025. The company will redeem its previous CRE CLO, TRTX 2019-FL3, resulting in net cash proceeds of approximately $211.1 million for investment and other corporate purposes.

TPG RE Finance to Present at Citi 2025 Conference

TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. announced that its CEO, Doug Bouquard, along with senior management, will present an overview of the company at the Citi 2025 Global Property CEO Conference. The presentation materials, which are not intended to provide new material investor information, will be made available to investors. The company highlighted various risks and uncertainties affecting its operations, including interest rate fluctuations, real estate market changes, and economic conditions, emphasizing the potential impact on its financial performance and stakeholder interests.