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MFA Financial
(NYSE:MFA)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
â–²(3.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
Overall score reflects a mixed profile: financial performance is constrained primarily by historically high leverage and revenue/earnings volatility despite strong recent cash generation. Technical signals are weak (negative MACD and price below key short-term moving averages). Valuation is a positive offset (low P/E and high dividend yield), while the latest earnings call was balanced—operational momentum and cost discipline, but near-term distributable-earnings pressure from elevated credit losses and dividend coverage shortfall.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Consistent positive TTM operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, and asset reinvestment. For a leveraged mortgage REIT, reliable cash generation improves resilience to mark-to-market swings and supports capital actions without sole reliance on external funding.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Sustained high leverage materially amplifies sensitivity to interest‑rate moves, margin compression, and funding shocks. For a mortgage REIT, elevated debt levels increase the risk of margin calls, higher financing costs, and reduced flexibility to absorb credit losses without dilutive capital or asset sales.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Consistent positive TTM operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, and asset reinvestment. For a leveraged mortgage REIT, reliable cash generation improves resilience to mark-to-market swings and supports capital actions without sole reliance on external funding.
Read all positive factors
MFA Financial (MFA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$927.99M
Dividend Yield15.74%
Average Volume (3M)1.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.9
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth19.70%
EPS Growth13.45%
CountryUS
Employees307
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.32
Shares Outstanding101,087,940
10 Day Avg. Volume1,409,367
30 Day Avg. Volume1,635,677
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.53
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
P/FCF Ratio12.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.38Price Target Upside13.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$273.08M
MFA Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MFA Financial, Inc., along with its subsidiary entities, operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) within the United States. The company strategically allocates capital into various residential mortgage-related assets. These assets include...
How the Company Makes Money
MFA primarily makes money from the net interest spread on its mortgage-related investment portfolio: it earns interest income and other cash flows on residential mortgage assets (such as mortgage-backed securities and other residential mortgage in...
MFA Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of meaningful operational progress (portfolio growth to ~$13B, a ~20% YoY portfolio increase, ~80 bps reduction in 60+ day delinquencies, Lima One origination up ~44%, securitization activity unlocking cash and improved financing) alongside near‑term financial headwinds driven by realized credit losses that materially reduced distributable earnings (DE $0.12 vs. $0.36 dividend) and an expected continued elevation of credit losses into Q3. Management emphasized strategic gains—asset redeployment into mid‑teen ROE assets, expense run‑rate reductions, and active capital recycling—while acknowledging short‑term earnings volatility from legacy credit resolutions and a modest post‑quarter economic book value decline (~2%). Overall the company shows constructive operational momentum but faces tangible near‑term credit and earnings pressure.Positive Updates
Stable Book Value and Dividend
GAAP book value of $12.71 and economic book value of $13.20 at June 30, effectively unchanged from Q1; declared common dividend of $0.36 and delivered a quarterly total economic return of +2.6%.
Negative Updates
Realized Credit Losses Pressured Distributable Earnings
Distributable earnings (DE) for the quarter were $12.2 million ($0.12 per share), driven down by $24.5 million of realized credit losses on fair value loans recognized at resolution of ~ $200 million of delinquent assets; DE significantly below the $0.36 dividend.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Stable Book Value and Dividend
GAAP book value of $12.71 and economic book value of $13.20 at June 30, effectively unchanged from Q1; declared common dividend of $0.36 and delivered a quarterly total economic return of +2.6%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call emphasized a path to normalized earnings and expense discipline: run‑rate G&A is expected to average about $26–$27 million per quarter (down >$6M/quarter from the 2024 quarterly average of $33M), MFA paid a $0.36 common dividend and expects distributable earnings (DE) to begin reconverging with that dividend as realized credit losses subside; they expect realized credit losses to remain elevated in Q3 (but below Q2’s level of $24.5 million) before moderating toward year‑end and into H1 2027. Key portfolio and capital metrics tied to that guidance include GAAP book value $12.71 and economic book value $13.20 at June 30 (estimated to be ~2% lower since quarter end), Q2 GAAP net income ~$46.8M ($0.35/share) and total economic return +2.6% for the quarter, an investment portfolio of ~ $13B (up from $12.5B on 3/31 and ~20% YoY), resolution of ~$200M of delinquent loans in Q2 with 60+ day delinquencies down from 7.8% to 7.0%, addition of $1.6B of target assets at expected mid‑teens ROEs, non‑QM balances of $5.7B (acquired $462M this quarter at a 6.9% average coupon, LTV 67%, default ~4%), agency bonds grown to $4.1B (purchases >$700M and TBA position increased ~$500M), Lima One originations +44% to $316M ( $220M transitional, $96M rental), and share repurchases of over 500,000 shares (funded largely via preferred issuance through the ATM); management highlighted that redeploying remaining equity (≈$84M) into mid‑teen ROE assets could add roughly $14–$15M of annual earnings.MFA Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 751.99M | 875.24M | 279.61M | 234.05M | -67.62M | 488.32M |
| Gross Profit | 618.17M | 841.79M | 244.30M | 199.91M | -110.52M | 418.19M |
| EBITDA | 554.92M | 690.03M | 644.13M | 0.00 | 36.46M | 455.86M |
| Net Income | 148.24M | 176.78M | 119.25M | 80.16M | -231.58M | 328.87M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.65B | 13.05B | 11.41B | 10.77B | 9.11B | 9.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 141.19M | 213.21M | 338.93M | 318.00M | 334.18M | 304.70M |
| Total Debt | 11.65B | 10.99B | 9.20B | 5.00B | 6.86B | 3.15B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.88B | 11.22B | 9.57B | 8.87B | 7.12B | 6.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.78B | 1.83B | 1.84B | 1.90B | 1.99B | 2.54B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 252.21M | 76.25M | 200.12M | 108.74M | 365.78M | 108.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 252.21M | 76.25M | 200.12M | 108.74M | 366.08M | 120.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.42B | -1.79B | -424.60M | -1.55B | -1.13B | -2.17B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.93B | 1.49B | 337.58M | 1.43B | 850.21M | 1.63B |
MFA Financial Technical Analysis
Neutral
9.14
Price Trends
9.20
Negative
9.30
Negative
9.05
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.05
Positive
48.77
Neutral
67.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MFA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.21, below the 50-day MA of 9.20, and above the 200-day MA of 9.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MFA.
MFA Financial Risk Analysis
MFA Financial disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MFA Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MFA Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
56 Neutral | $927.99M | 6.93 | 8.23% | 15.75% | 19.70% | 13.45% | |
56 Neutral | $1.31B | 4.47 | 25.58% | 21.10% | 89.39% | 661.99% | |
55 Neutral | $824.06M | 6.58 | 8.88% | 16.43% | 21.86% | 97.23% | |
55 Neutral | $660.21M | 17.82 | 4.45% | 14.21% | 11.14% | -54.56% | |
54 Neutral | $1.26B | -16.60 | -1.23% | 11.24% | 18.65% | 78.83% | |
49 Neutral | $996.17M | -15.83 | 0.05% | 13.12% | 14.40% | -178.46% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
MFA
MFA Financial
9.15
0.76
9.01%
CIM
Chimera Investment
11.84
-0.33
-2.74%
TWO
Two Harbors
12.04
3.01
33.29%
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage
9.48
-1.21
-11.29%
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
6.62
0.70
11.88%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
8.05
-1.89
-19.05%
MFA Financial Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
MFA Financial Reports Solid Second Quarter 2026 Results
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, MFA Financial reported its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, highlighting GAAP net income to common stockholders and participating securities of $36.2 million, or $0.35 per basic common share and $0.34 per d...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
MFA Financial Shareholders Back Directors and Governance Measures
Positive
Jun 4, 2026
On June 3, 2026, MFA Financial, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders elected two Class I directors, Laurie S. Goodman and Richard C. Wald, to serve on the board until the 2029 annual meeting, with each receiving a ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.