MFA Financial (MFA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.03B
• Dividend Yield: 14.9%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 7.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.50
• Revenue Growth: 5.52%
• EPS Growth: -47.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 348
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.27
• Shares Outstanding: 102,195,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,207,445
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,395,946
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.66
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.79
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.19
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.39
• 1Y Price Target: $10.50
• Price Target Upside: 4.48% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.00 ▲(9.45% Upside)

Overall score reflects attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and improving/positive technical momentum, offset by only moderate financial-quality strength due to historical earnings/leverage volatility and uneven cash-flow consistency. Earnings call commentary is constructive but still tempered by legacy credit headwinds and timing uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Active capital deployment

Large, sustained capital deployment ($1.9B in Q4) meaningfully reduces excess cash drag and shifts portfolio into higher-yielding mortgage assets. Continued disciplined deployment supports recurring net interest income, levered ROE improvement and the ability to convert liquidity into long‑term distributable earnings.

Scale in non‑QM whole loans

A $5.3B non‑QM franchise gives MFA scale advantages in origination, securitization and pricing. Size supports repeatable mortgage banking income, diversified coupon generation above agency yields, and the ability to structure securitizations that convert loans to capital while preserving long‑term spread capture.

Improved 2025 balance sheet profile

Material deleveraging in 2025 reduces funding‑market sensitivity and increases strategic optionality. A lower reported debt position enhances flexibility to securitize, fund originations, execute buybacks and manage duration through derivatives, improving longer‑term resilience versus prior high‑leverage years.

Negative Factors

Legacy credit and delinquencies

Persistently elevated delinquencies, especially in legacy multifamily, create uncertain timing and quantum of credit realizations. That uncertainty undermines distributable earnings and can consume capital and management bandwidth for multiple quarters, making near‑term earnings and dividend durability less predictable.

Inconsistent cash flow generation

Volatile free cash flow weakens the foundation for a stable REIT dividend and constrains reinvestment or buybacks without relying on financings or realized gains. Inconsistent cash conversion increases reliance on securitizations and preferred issuances, raising execution and market‑access risk over coming quarters.

Historic leverage swings and funding sensitivity

Historic swings between heavy leverage and rapid deleveraging indicate reliance on short‑term repo and securitizations. That pattern exposes MFA to funding‑market volatility and could quickly compress spreads or limit deployment if financing tightens, impairing durable net interest margins and returns.

MFA Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage assets, including non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities; residential whole loans, including purchased performing loans, purchased credit deteriorated, and non-performing loans; and mortgage servicing rights related assets. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would not be subject to federal income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. MFA Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

MFA Financial makes money by investing in residential mortgage assets and earning income from these investments. The company's revenue model centers around acquiring and managing a portfolio of residential whole loans and mortgage-backed securities, which generate interest income. MFA leverages its expertise in managing mortgage credit risk to maximize returns. The company also benefits from the capital appreciation of its real estate assets. Additionally, MFA Financial engages in securitization and other financial transactions to enhance its liquidity and financial performance. Key revenue streams include interest income from mortgage investments, gains from the sale of mortgage-backed securities, and income generated from securitization activities. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and access to capital markets further contribute to its earnings and operational efficiency.

MFA Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial statement signals are mixed: income statement shows a rebound with strong 2025 profitability (Score 62), but balance sheet and cash flow are weaker (Scores 48 and 44) due to historically high leverage as recently as 2024, a sharp leverage swing into 2025, and softer 2025 free cash flow versus 2024—raising durability and consistency risk.

Income Statement

Results show a strong rebound versus the loss years, with profitability returning in 2023–2025 and a very large revenue surge in 2025 (annual revenue up sharply). Margins in the profitable years are solid, and 2025 shows especially high operating profitability. However, earnings power has been volatile over time (notably large losses in 2020 and 2022), and year-to-year comparability is uneven, which raises confidence risk in the durability of current profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet has improved materially in 2025 with reported debt at zero and a conservative leverage profile versus prior years. That said, leverage was very high as recently as 2024 (debt meaningfully larger than equity), indicating historical reliance on borrowing and potentially meaningful sensitivity to funding markets. Equity has been relatively stable, and returns on equity have recovered to positive levels, but the sharp leverage swing year-to-year reduces balance-sheet predictability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive across the years provided, and free cash flow broadly tracks operating cash flow. However, cash flow coverage of earnings has been inconsistent, and 2025 free cash flow declined materially versus 2024, which weakens near-term cash momentum. Overall, cash flow looks positive but not consistently strong relative to the volatility in reported profits.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	371.82M	875.24M	279.61M	234.05M	-67.62M	337.22M
Gross Profit	438.10M	841.79M	244.30M	199.91M	-110.52M	299.75M
EBITDA	341.50M	690.03M	0.00	0.00	0.00	433.02M
Net Income	128.17M	176.78M	119.25M	80.16M	-231.58M	328.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.10B	13.05B	11.41B	10.77B	9.11B	9.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	305.17M	213.21M	338.93M	318.00M	334.18M	304.70M
Total Debt	6.60B	0.00	9.20B	5.00B	6.86B	3.15B
Total Liabilities	10.28B	11.22B	9.57B	8.87B	7.12B	6.60B
Stockholders Equity	1.82B	1.83B	1.84B	1.90B	1.99B	2.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	150.07M	76.25M	200.12M	108.74M	365.78M	108.25M
Operating Cash Flow	150.07M	76.25M	200.12M	108.74M	366.08M	120.29M
Investing Cash Flow	-795.83M	-1.79B	-424.60M	-1.55B	-1.13B	-2.17B
Financing Cash Flow	679.82M	1.49B	337.58M	1.43B	850.21M	1.63B

MFA Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.05
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MFA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.84, above the 50-day MA of 9.73, and above the 200-day MA of 9.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MFA.

MFA Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MFA	67 Neutral	$1.03B	7.75	9.60%	14.90%	5.52%	-47.72%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
FBRT	61 Neutral	$708.35M	13.56	5.25%	13.31%	-0.93%	-1.92%
ORC	57 Neutral	$1.14B	6.08	15.59%	20.03%	72.30%	-54.02%
PMT	55 Neutral	$1.08B	12.61	6.67%	12.69%	-15.48%	-36.45%
CIM	53 Neutral	$1.15B	8.01	9.04%	11.40%	9.46%	-111.44%
TWO	45 Neutral	$1.18B	-2.29	-23.25%	14.29%	22.48%	50.49%

MFA Financial Corporate Events

MFA Financial Posts Strong Q4 Results, Expands Portfolio

On February 18, 2026, MFA Financial reported fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP net income of $43.6 million, or $0.42 per share, distributable earnings of $27.8 million, and a total economic return of 3.1%, while ending the year with GAAP book value of $13.20 per share and $213.2 million in unrestricted cash. For full-year 2025, MFA posted GAAP net income of $136.5 million, a 58% increase over 2024, generated a 9.0% total economic return, expanded its residential investment portfolio to $12.3 billion through sizable Non-QM and Agency MBS purchases and five securitizations, and launched a new $200 million stock repurchase program running through 2028, underscoring a strategy of portfolio growth, credit cleanup and capital returns despite pressure on distributable earnings from legacy credit losses.

During 2025, MFA acquired $2.7 billion of loans, including $1.8 billion of Non-QM and $655.7 million of single-family transitional loans, purchased $2.1 billion of Agency MBS, and modestly reduced residential delinquencies year-on-year, while funding new business purpose originations and generating $22.8 million of mortgage banking income at Lima One. In the fourth quarter alone, the company added $1.2 billion of Agency MBS, grew its Non-QM portfolio to $5.3 billion, completed another Non-QM securitization, and used accretive share repurchases alongside added interest-rate hedges and moderate leverage of 6.0x debt to net equity to support returns and manage duration risk for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (MFA) stock is a Buy with a $11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MFA Financial stock, see the MFA Stock Forecast page.