MFA Financial Inc (MFA)
NYSE:MFA
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MFA Financial
(NYSE:MFA)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
â–¼(-2.25% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
Overall score reflects improving operating momentum and positive cash generation, but constrained by high leverage and historically volatile profitability. The earnings outlook is constructive (actions to lift distributable earnings and cut expenses), yet near-term credit losses and mark-to-market sensitivity add uncertainty. Technicals are broadly neutral, while valuation is supported by a very high yield but tempered by a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Portfolio Scale & Diversification
A $12.5B portfolio with meaningful Non‑QM and agency exposures provides durable income diversification and scale. Broad asset mix and sizable holdings increase securitization and funding options, supporting persistent spread generation and operational flexibility over months to years.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Elevated leverage amplifies sensitivity to funding cost moves and asset value shifts, constraining financial flexibility. In a higher‑rate or spread‑widening environment this structural leverage increases downside risk to book value and limits capacity to absorb losses.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Portfolio Scale & Diversification
A $12.5B portfolio with meaningful Non‑QM and agency exposures provides durable income diversification and scale. Broad asset mix and sizable holdings increase securitization and funding options, supporting persistent spread generation and operational flexibility over months to years.
Read all positive factors
MFA Financial (MFA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$966.18M
Dividend Yield14.9%
Average Volume (3M)1.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth2.05%
EPS Growth-11.87%
CountryUS
Employees348
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.09
Shares Outstanding101,596,230
10 Day Avg. Volume1,447,155
30 Day Avg. Volume1,411,416
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.53
Price to Sales (P/S)1.10
P/FCF Ratio12.66
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit16.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda33.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.83Price Target Upside5.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$288.11M
MFA Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage assets, including non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), agency MBS, and...
How the Company Makes Money
MFA primarily makes money by earning net interest income (spread income) on a leveraged portfolio of residential mortgage assets. It purchases mortgage-related investments (such as residential whole loans and mortgage-backed securities) that gener...
MFA Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed but constructive operational picture: MFA demonstrated clear portfolio growth, successful securitizations, meaningful expense reduction progress, and momentum at Lima One (including a 34% QoQ jump in mortgage banking income). However, these positives were offset in the quarter by macro‑driven mark‑to‑market losses (~$28.8M), a negative 1.2% economic return, a GAAP loss (~$10M), elevated delinquencies tied to a legacy multifamily runoff book (≈ $101M of capital tied up) and an expected near‑term pickup in realized credit losses in Q2. Management has taken deliberate capital and cost actions (preferred issuance to repurchase common stock, HQ relocation savings, new DE metric) that position the company to normalize earnings and reconverge DE with the dividend later in the year, but timing risk from loan resolutions keeps near‑term results uncertain.Positive Updates
Investment Portfolio Growth to $12.5B
MFA grew its investment portfolio to $12.5 billion in Q1, adding ~ $700 million of agency securities (including TBAs), $471 million of Non‑QM loans, and $219 million of Lima One originated business purpose loans. Non‑QM remains the largest asset class with the Non‑QM book at $5.5 billion, new loans averaging a 7% coupon and 68% LTV, and a default rate just above 4%.
Negative Updates
Negative Quarterly Economic Return and GAAP Loss
MFA reported a quarterly total economic return of negative 1.2% and a GAAP loss of approximately $10 million (≈ $0.11 per basic common share). GAAP book value was $12.70 and economic book value $13.22, each down ~3.8% year‑over‑year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Investment Portfolio Growth to $12.5B
MFA grew its investment portfolio to $12.5 billion in Q1, adding ~ $700 million of agency securities (including TBAs), $471 million of Non‑QM loans, and $219 million of Lima One originated business purpose loans. Non‑QM remains the largest asset class with the Non‑QM book at $5.5 billion, new loans averaging a 7% coupon and 68% LTV, and a default rate just above 4%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that distributable earnings (DE) of $0.30 per share in Q1 are expected to reconverge toward the $0.36 quarterly common dividend by year‑end—an outlook that assumes paydowns and redeployment of capital from the runoff multifamily book (approximately $101 million at quarter end) and acknowledges realized credit losses on legacy transitional assets will accelerate in Q2 (mid‑to‑high‑teens on resolutions) before normalizing in the back half of 2026 and into 2027; key metrics cited include GAAP book value $12.70 and economic book value $13.22 (both down ~3.8% YoY), a quarterly total economic return of -1.2%, a GAAP loss of ~$10 million (‑$0.11/sh) driven by ~$28.8 million of mark‑to‑market losses, net interest income of $59.2 million (up from $55.5M), an investment portfolio of $12.5 billion (including Non‑QM at $5.5B and agency securities >$3.5B with $300M TBAs), $471M of Non‑QM additions, $326M of bonds sold (avg coupon 5.12%) and a >$400M re‑securitization unlocking ~$40M, Lima One originations of $219M with mortgage‑banking income $7.7M (+34% QoQ), delinquencies that peaked at 7.8% and fell to 7.3%, expected run‑rate overhead savings of ~ $4M/year from the HQ move (and ~ $20M/year total savings vs. 2024), plus additional one‑time charges of $2.4M in accelerated depreciation this quarter and ~$5M expected in Q2; management also introduced a supplemental DE measure excluding realized credit losses to better show underlying earnings power.MFA Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 716.02M | 875.24M | 279.61M | 234.05M | -67.62M | 337.22M |
| Gross Profit | 440.97M | 841.79M | 244.30M | 199.91M | -110.52M | 299.75M |
| EBITDA | 214.28M | 690.03M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 433.02M |
| Net Income | 134.62M | 176.78M | 119.25M | 80.16M | -231.58M | 328.87M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 13.23B | 13.05B | 11.41B | 10.77B | 9.11B | 9.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 221.57M | 213.21M | 338.93M | 318.00M | 334.18M | 304.70M |
| Total Debt | 6.50B | 10.99B | 9.20B | 5.00B | 6.86B | 3.15B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.45B | 11.22B | 9.57B | 8.87B | 7.12B | 6.60B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.78B | 1.83B | 1.84B | 1.90B | 1.99B | 2.54B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 161.88M | 76.25M | 200.12M | 108.74M | 365.78M | 108.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 161.88M | 76.25M | 200.12M | 108.74M | 366.08M | 120.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.76B | -1.79B | -424.60M | -1.55B | -1.13B | -2.17B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.54B | 1.49B | 337.58M | 1.43B | 850.21M | 1.63B |
MFA Financial Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.23
Price Trends
9.76
Negative
9.61
Negative
9.14
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
43.82
Neutral
17.39
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MFA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.84, above the 50-day MA of 9.76, and above the 200-day MA of 9.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MFA.
MFA Financial Risk Analysis
MFA Financial disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MFA Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MFA Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | $668.04M | 14.16 | 4.95% | 13.31% | 5.47% | -22.89% | |
56 Neutral | $966.18M | -252.36 | 7.43% | 14.90% | 2.05% | -11.87% | |
56 Neutral | $1.11B | -5.98 | 0.75% | 11.40% | 10.27% | -151.66% | |
56 Neutral | $1.31B | 9.57 | -19.11% | 14.29% | -6.44% | -1044.78% | |
54 Neutral | $915.62M | 10.31 | 7.62% | 12.69% | 23.64% | 24.40% | |
54 Neutral | $1.36B | -16.67 | 10.24% | 20.03% | 81.33% | 86.84% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
MFA
MFA Financial
9.51
1.48
18.49%
CIM
Chimera Investment
13.25
1.60
13.70%
TWO
Two Harbors
12.51
2.60
26.20%
PMT
PennyMac Mortgage
10.50
-0.40
-3.64%
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
6.78
1.12
19.77%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
8.68
-0.88
-9.18%
MFA Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
MFA Financial Posts Q1 2026 Loss Amid Portfolio Growth
Neutral
May 5, 2026
MFA Financial reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 5, posting a GAAP net loss of $11.4 million, or $0.11 per share, but generating $31.1 million in distributable earnings, or $0.30 per share, alongside a $0.36 dividend paid on April 30 and a...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
MFA Financial Posts Strong Q4 Results, Expands Portfolio
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
On February 18, 2026, MFA Financial reported fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP net income of $43.6 million, or $0.42 per share, distributable earnings of $27.8 million, and a total economic return of 3.1%, while ending the year with GAAP book value of $13....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.