MFA Financial (MFA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.03B
• Dividend Yield: 14.9%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.26M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.49
• Revenue Growth: 5.52%
• EPS Growth: -47.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 348
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 102,195,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,620,032
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,262,959
• PEG Ratio: 0.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.77
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.27
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 19.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 21.24
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 44.13
• 1Y Price Target: $10.08
• Price Target Upside: -0.20% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.35
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $283.78M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▼(-0.99% Downside)

The score is driven mainly by improved profitability and cash generation, tempered by materially higher balance-sheet leverage (a key risk for mortgage REITs). Technicals are mildly supportive with price above major averages and neutral momentum. Valuation is helped by a moderate P/E and very high dividend yield, while the latest earnings call was mixed due to weaker distributable earnings from credit losses despite operational initiatives and book value disclosures.

Positive Factors

Asset Growth

The increase in assets reflects MFA's ability to expand its portfolio, enhancing its capacity to generate income and improve long-term financial stability.

Successful Securitizations

Successful securitizations demonstrate MFA's effective capital management and ability to leverage its assets, supporting liquidity and financial performance.

Dividend Stability

Stable dividends indicate a commitment to returning value to shareholders, enhancing investor confidence and supporting long-term investment appeal.

Negative Factors

Economic Book Value Decline

A decline in economic book value suggests potential challenges in asset valuation and profitability, impacting the company's financial health and investor perception.

Increased Delinquencies

Rising delinquencies can signal deteriorating asset quality, potentially leading to higher credit losses and affecting long-term financial performance.

Challenges in Loan Origination

Lower-than-expected loan origination may indicate operational challenges, limiting growth opportunities and affecting revenue generation in the long term.

MFA Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage assets, including non-agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities; residential whole loans, including purchased performing loans, purchased credit deteriorated, and non-performing loans; and mortgage servicing rights related assets. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would not be subject to federal income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. MFA Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

MFA Financial makes money by investing in residential mortgage assets and earning income from these investments. The company's revenue model centers around acquiring and managing a portfolio of residential whole loans and mortgage-backed securities, which generate interest income. MFA leverages its expertise in managing mortgage credit risk to maximize returns. The company also benefits from the capital appreciation of its real estate assets. Additionally, MFA Financial engages in securitization and other financial transactions to enhance its liquidity and financial performance. Key revenue streams include interest income from mortgage investments, gains from the sale of mortgage-backed securities, and income generated from securitization activities. Significant partnerships with financial institutions and access to capital markets further contribute to its earnings and operational efficiency.

MFA Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income and cash flow show a clear recovery (TTM net income ~$128M; TTM FCF ~$150M with ~1.0x conversion), but results have been volatile across years. The biggest constraint is the balance sheet: leverage is high and rising (TTM debt-to-equity ~5.4x), increasing sensitivity to funding costs and asset-value swings for a mortgage REIT.

Income Statement

Profitability improved meaningfully after the 2022 loss, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) net income of ~$128M and strong revenue growth (~69.5% TTM). Margins appear very strong in the most recent period, but results have been volatile across years (including negative revenue/profits in 2022 and 2020), which reduces confidence in the earnings trajectory and stability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is high and rising, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) debt-to-equity around ~5.4x (up from ~2.6x in 2023), which increases sensitivity to funding costs and asset-value swings—an important risk for a mortgage REIT. Equity has been relatively steady (~$1.8–2.5B range) and recent return on equity is positive (~7% TTM), but the capital structure is still meaningfully debt-heavy versus prior years.

Cash Flow

Cash generation looks supportive: operating cash flow is positive in every period shown, and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow is ~$150M with free cash flow matching net income (conversion ~1.0x). However, operating cash flow is down versus 2024 (~$200M) and cash flow growth has been choppy year-to-year, signaling variability in underlying cash generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	371.82M	279.61M	234.05M	-67.62M	337.22M	-555.87M
Gross Profit	341.18M	244.30M	199.91M	-110.52M	299.75M	-555.87M
EBITDA	164.20M	0.00	0.00	0.00	433.02M	0.00
Net Income	128.17M	119.25M	80.16M	-231.58M	328.87M	-679.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.10B	11.41B	10.77B	9.11B	9.14B	6.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	305.17M	338.93M	318.00M	334.18M	304.70M	814.35M
Total Debt	6.60B	9.20B	5.00B	6.86B	3.15B	1.84B
Total Liabilities	10.28B	9.57B	8.87B	7.12B	6.60B	4.41B
Stockholders Equity	1.82B	1.84B	1.90B	1.99B	2.54B	2.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	150.07M	200.12M	108.74M	365.78M	108.25M	33.53M
Operating Cash Flow	150.07M	200.12M	108.74M	366.08M	120.29M	38.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-795.83M	-424.60M	-1.55B	-1.13B	-2.17B	6.38B
Financing Cash Flow	679.82M	337.58M	1.43B	850.21M	1.63B	-5.74B

MFA Financial Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MFA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.67, above the 50-day MA of 9.50, and above the 200-day MA of 9.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.29 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MFA.

MFA Financial Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ORC	63 Neutral	$1.26B	17.19	7.02%	20.03%	72.30%	-54.02%
MFA	61 Neutral	$1.03B	11.87	6.90%	14.90%	5.52%	-47.72%
PMT	61 Neutral	$1.20B	15.07	6.37%	12.69%	-15.48%	-36.45%
FBRT	61 Neutral	$839.73M	12.89	5.88%	13.31%	-0.93%	-1.92%
TWO	55 Neutral	$1.47B	-5.66	-9.69%	14.29%	22.48%	50.49%
CIM	50 Neutral	$1.11B	-32.79	2.10%	11.40%	9.46%	-111.44%

MFA Financial Corporate Events

MFA Financial Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

MFA Financial, Inc. announced its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, reporting a GAAP net income of $37.3 million and distributable earnings of $21.0 million. The company made significant progress by acquiring $1.2 billion in residential mortgage assets and securitizing $721 million of Non-QM loans. Despite credit losses from legacy loans, MFA is implementing strategies to improve future returns, including cost reductions and share repurchases.

The most recent analyst rating on (MFA) stock is a Buy with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MFA Financial stock, see the MFA Stock Forecast page.

MFA Financial Announces Stock Trading Blackout Period

On October 30, 2025, MFA Financial, Inc. announced a blackout period for its directors and executive officers, restricting trading of the company’s common stock and Series B Preferred Stock from December 1 to December 5, 2025. This blackout period is due to the removal of these stocks as investment options under the company’s 401(k) Savings Plan, in compliance with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and SEC regulations, impacting the ability of plan participants to manage their investments during this time.

The most recent analyst rating on (MFA) stock is a Buy with a $10.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MFA Financial stock, see the MFA Stock Forecast page.