Riskified (RSKD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $629.87M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 721.29K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 6.54%
• EPS Growth: -19.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 652
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 104,086,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 914,736
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 721,289
• PEG Ratio: 2.84
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.27
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.67
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.16
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -22.97
• 1Y Price Target: $5.58
• Price Target Upside: 26.53% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.27
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $378.94M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(13.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals—especially sustained positive free cash flow and low leverage—supported by constructive 2026 guidance and profitability/FCF targets. Offsetting these positives are continued GAAP losses/negative ROE, only moderate technical momentum with the stock below key longer-term averages, and limited valuation support due to a negative P/E and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Sustained free cash flow generation

Riskified has shifted to sustained positive operating and free cash flow in 2023–2025, delivering multi-year cash generation (~$33M–$39M). Durable FCF improves self-funding for product investment, buybacks, and cushion versus cyclical merchant spend swings, reducing reliance on external capital.

Conservative balance sheet with low leverage

Low debt and strong cash balances (year-end cash, deposits and investments ≈ $298M) provide financial flexibility to invest in product, absorb fraud-related underwriting volatility, and support share repurchases. Conservative leverage materially lowers refinancing and solvency risk over the medium term.

Large GMV scale and data moat

Extensive transaction volume and unique interactions create a durable machine-learning advantage that improves fraud detection and approval rates. Combined with improving retention (NDR ~105%) and rising multi-product adoption, scale boosts win rates, stickiness, and long-term unit economics.

Negative Factors

Ongoing GAAP losses and negative ROE

Despite operational improvements, continued GAAP losses and negative ROE indicate shareholder-level profitability has not fully emerged. A shrinking equity base constrains capital allocation flexibility and means future earnings must both cover prior deficits and support growth to restore returns to shareholders.

Material FX headwind to margins

Significant currency exposure (≈400bps EBITDA impact) can structurally erode margin expansion even as operations improve. FX pressure reduces predictable converted profit and complicates multi-year margin targets, forcing either pricing, cost cuts, or slower margin progression absent natural hedges.

Agentic-commerce fraud complexity & cohort softness

Emerging agentic-commerce channels may degrade model effectiveness and increase fraud costs, requiring product redevelopment and higher underwriting. Coupled with uneven cohort and sub-vertical performance (e.g., tickets, home), this structural uncertainty could pressure growth consistency and margin sustainability.

Riskified Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Riskified Ltd. operates an e-commerce risk management platform that allows online merchants to create trusted relationships with their consumers in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers Chargeback Guarantee that approves or denies online orders; Policy Protect and Account Secure, which identifies and blocks consumers that may be taking advantage of the merchant's terms and conditions or that may be trying to gain unauthorized access to another consumer's account; Deco and PSD2, a optimize products that help merchants to avoid bank authorization failures and abandoned shopping carts resulting from the secure customer authentication process. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

How the Company Makes Money

Riskified generates revenue primarily through a performance-based pricing model. The company charges merchants a fee based on the volume of transactions processed through its platform, typically taking a percentage of the sales secured by its fraud prevention services. This model aligns Riskified's success with that of its clients, as the company only earns fees when transactions are approved and completed, minimizing risk for merchants. Additionally, Riskified may engage in partnerships with payment processors and e-commerce platforms, further enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base, which contributes to its overall earnings.

Riskified Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steady revenue growth and stable ~51–55% gross margin, with a clear shift to sustained positive operating and free cash flow in 2023–2025. Low leverage reduces financial risk, but ongoing net losses, negative ROE, and a declining equity base keep the score below the top tier.

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded steadily over 2020–2025 (from ~$170M to ~$345M), with 2025 showing very strong growth versus 2024. Gross margin has remained consistently around ~51–55%, indicating solid unit economics. The key weakness is profitability: the company is still loss-making, with negative operating and net margins in every year shown; however, losses have narrowed meaningfully since 2022–2023 as operating profitability improved in 2024–2025.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively levered, with low debt relative to equity (debt-to-equity staying under ~0.09 in recent years), which reduces financial risk. However, equity has declined materially since 2022 (suggesting ongoing losses have been a drag on the capital base), and returns on equity remain negative, reflecting that the business has not yet translated scale into shareholder-level profitability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a notable strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive in 2023–2025, with particularly strong levels in 2024–2025 (free cash flow ~$39M and ~$33M, respectively). This marks a clear improvement from 2020–2022 when cash flow was negative. The main watch-out is year-to-year volatility (operating cash flow dipped in 2025 vs. 2024), but overall the trajectory has moved to sustained cash flow positivity despite accounting losses.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	344.64M	327.52M	297.61M	261.25M	229.14M
Gross Profit	175.98M	170.94M	152.52M	135.10M	122.97M
EBITDA	-13.46M	-42.97M	-71.75M	-105.74M	-53.95M
Net Income	-27.57M	-34.92M	-59.03M	-104.70M	-179.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	410.57M	495.86M	601.93M	606.98M	600.63M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	297.58M	376.06M	474.81M	475.67M	503.27M
Total Debt	25.02M	27.53M	31.31M	37.42M	0.00
Total Liabilities	115.81M	113.56M	110.21M	112.55M	71.77M
Stockholders Equity	294.76M	382.30M	491.72M	494.44M	528.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	33.07M	39.06M	5.92M	-34.26M	-33.78M
Operating Cash Flow	33.88M	39.70M	7.28M	-26.25M	-20.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-132.85M	27.75M	251.56M	-210.01M	-84.44M
Financing Cash Flow	-110.66M	-136.82M	-9.31M	3.85M	423.19M

Riskified Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.41
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RSKD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.41, below the 50-day MA of 4.48, and below the 200-day MA of 4.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RSKD.

Riskified Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DSP	75 Outperform	$735.53M	8.21	19.72%	―	22.97%	49.49%
OPFI	70 Outperform	$689.51M	10.53	73.23%	―	9.63%	-112.71%
VTEX	69 Neutral	$657.38M	17.45	8.24%	―	3.62%	-20.45%
RSKD	64 Neutral	$629.87M	-28.39	-8.42%	―	6.54%	-19.17%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
SPT	59 Neutral	$345.32M	-15.25	-22.88%	―	13.09%	32.34%
BMBL	57 Neutral	$421.64M	-0.53	-106.91%	―	-7.43%	61.36%

Riskified Corporate Events

Riskified Posts Record Q4 2025, Achieves GAAP Profitability and Expands Share Buyback

Riskified reported on March 4, 2026 that it closed 2025 with record quarterly gross profit, its first quarter of GAAP profitability and a record year for adjusted EBITDA, as revenue, margins and operating cash flow all improved. The company highlighted strong go-to-market execution, broad-based new customer wins across six verticals and three regions, and continued geographic expansion, including new business momentum in Latin America.

Management pointed to rising ecommerce fraud complexity as a tailwind for demand, citing the expansion of its AI Agent Intelligence platform to secure merchants’ conversational AI shopping assistants and the launch of a Dynamic Returns feature to improve risk-based refund decisions. Riskified also continued to return capital to shareholders, having repurchased about 52 million shares since November 2023 and securing board approval on March 2, 2026 for an additional $75 million buyback, subject to Israeli regulatory procedures and potential creditor objections, leaving roughly $85.1 million in remaining repurchase authorization as of that date.

The most recent analyst rating on (RSKD) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Riskified stock, see the RSKD Stock Forecast page.