Riskified (RSKD) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

304 Followers

RSKD Dividends

Top Page

Riskified

(NYSE:RSKD)

64Neutral

Riskified's overall stock score is supported by strong revenue and cash flow growth, a robust balance sheet, and positive developments from the latest earnings call. However, persistent profitability challenges and valuation concerns weigh down the score. Technical indicators suggest a balanced short-term outlook, with mixed signals on momentum.

Riskified (RSKD) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$750.22M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)431.23K

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.06

Revenue Growth10.05%

EPS Growth39.55%

CountryUS

Employees652

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength65

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.02

Shares Outstanding112,781,640

10 Day Avg. Volume316,620

30 Day Avg. Volume431,233

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.57

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.50

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$5.61

Price Target Upside18.60% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering9

Riskified Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRiskified Ltd. operates an e-commerce risk management platform that allows online merchants to create trusted relationships with their consumers in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers Chargeback Guarantee that approves or denies online orders; Policy Protect and Account Secure, which identifies and blocks consumers that may be taking advantage of the merchant's terms and conditions or that may be trying to gain unauthorized access to another consumer's account; Deco and PSD2, a optimize products that help merchants to avoid bank authorization failures and abandoned shopping carts resulting from the secure customer authentication process. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv, Israel.

How the Company Makes MoneyRiskified generates revenue primarily through a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model where merchants pay for fraud prevention services based on the volume of transactions processed. The company typically charges a percentage of the transaction value for the orders it reviews and approves. Significant partnerships with major online retailers and payment processors also contribute to its earnings by expanding its customer base and facilitating integration with various e-commerce platforms. Riskified's ability to reduce chargebacks and fraudulent transactions for its clients further solidifies its value proposition in the market.

Riskified Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Riskified shows strong revenue growth and improved cash flows, indicating positive operational prospects. However, profitability challenges persist due to negative net income and EBIT margins, despite a solid balance sheet with low leverage.

Income Statement

Positive

Riskified has shown consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable revenue growth rate of 10.06% from 2023 to 2024. However, profitability remains a challenge, indicated by negative EBIT and Net Income margins. The gross profit margin stands at 52.20% for 2024, showcasing efficient cost management at the gross level, but overall profitability is hindered by high operating expenses.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is strong, supported by a high equity ratio of 77.11% in 2024, indicating a low level of leverage. The Debt-to-Equity ratio is low at 0.07, reflecting prudent financial management. However, the consistent negative net income impacts return on equity, which remains negative despite improvements over the years.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow from operations has improved significantly, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.14 in 2024, indicating better cash generation from operations. Free cash flow has grown notably by 559.38% from 2023 to 2024, showing strong cash flow management. These improvements are positive, but the company still faces challenges in achieving positive net income.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
327.52M	297.61M	261.25M	229.14M	169.74M
	Gross Profit
170.94M	152.52M	135.10M	122.97M	92.82M
	EBIT
-47.85M	-76.85M	-108.63M	-55.40M	-6.81M
	EBITDA
-42.97M	-71.75M	-108.63M	-55.40M	-5.45M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-34.92M	-59.03M	-103.99M	-178.88M	-11.35M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
376.06M	474.81M	475.67M	503.27M	117.62M
	Total Assets
495.86M	601.93M	608.97M	600.63M	180.56M
	Total Debt
27.53M	31.31M	37.42M	0.00	0.00
	Net Debt
-343.53M	-409.53M	-151.25M	-418.14M	-103.61M
	Total Liabilities
113.56M	110.21M	112.55M	71.77M	223.87M
	Stockholders Equity
382.30M	491.72M	496.42M	528.86M	-43.31M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
39.06M	5.92M	-34.26M	-33.78M	-6.08M
	Operating Cash Flow
39.70M	7.28M	-26.25M	-20.28M	-3.12M
	Investing Cash Flow
27.75M	251.56M	-210.01M	-84.44M	-16.96M
	Financing Cash Flow
-136.82M	-9.31M	3.85M	423.19M	54.02M

Riskified Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price4.73

Price Trends

50DMA

4.63

Positive

100DMA

4.86

Negative

200DMA

4.88

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.03

Negative

RSI

60.52

Neutral

STOCH

77.04

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RSKD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.56, above the 50-day MA of 4.63, and below the 200-day MA of 4.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RSKD.

Riskified Risk Analysis

Riskified disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Riskified reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Riskified Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YALA	85 Outperform	$1.10B	9.42	21.33%	―	6.52%	14.89%
VTEX	75 Outperform	$1.01B	84.95	6.26%	―	7.71%	―
DSP	65 Neutral	$937.70M	438.53	4.15%	―	30.64%	―
RSKD	64 Neutral	$750.22M	―	-7.99%	―	10.05%	39.55%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$10.77B	10.41	-6.71%	2.99%	7.69%	-13.12%
BMBL	59 Neutral	$453.18M	―	-46.57%	―	1.88%	-11430.00%
BLND	45 Neutral	$845.67M	―	-93.00%	―	3.30%	68.45%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

RSKD

Riskified

4.81

-0.24

-4.75%

YALA

Yalla Group

7.17

2.29

46.93%

DSP

Viant Technology

14.39

5.62

64.08%

BMBL

Bumble

5.56

-5.89

-51.44%

BLND

Blend Labs

3.29

0.51

18.35%

VTEX

6.07

-0.72

-10.60%

Riskified Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: -6.52%|

Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Riskified delivered strong financial performance in 2024 with significant revenue and GMV growth, improved adjusted EBITDA margins, and successful expansion of its multi-product platform. However, challenges in retention rates and pressure in specific verticals like high-end fashion and the home category posed some setbacks.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue and GMV Growth

Riskified grew its Gross Merchandising Volume (GMV) by 15% for the full year and achieved revenue growth of 10%, finishing the year with $327.5 million in revenue, exceeding the high end of their guidance.

Adjusted EBITDA Margin Improvement

The company delivered meaningful adjusted EBITDA margin improvement, achieving positive adjusted EBITDA in each quarter of 2024, with a year-over-year increase of over 300%, culminating in $17.2 million for the year.

Strong New Business and Upsell Activity

Riskified derived approximately $45 million in revenue from new merchants added in 2024, and experienced strong upsell activity, particularly in the Tickets and Travel and Fashion verticals.

Multi-Product Platform Expansion

The company expanded its multi-product platform, with new product revenue up approximately 90% year-over-year, and new products bookings representing approximately 10% of the total bookings won in 2024.

Successful Merchant Retention Strategy

Over 70% of the 2025 book of business was committed through multiyear contracts, with a 30% increase in weighted average contract term signed for larger accounts.

Continued Market Share Gains

Riskified saw billings growth across all geographies, with notable growth in the Americas and APAC regions, leading to continued market share gains outside of the United States.

Negative Updates

Annual Dollar Retention and Net Dollar Retention Rates

The company's 2024 revenue growth in Annual Dollar Retention (ADR) and Net Dollar Retention (NDR) rates were not in line with historical benchmarks and long-term objectives, with NDR at 96% compared to historical levels of over 110%.

Challenges in the Home Category

The Home category experienced a churn event, resulting in a decline, although the company expects growth in this vertical by the end of 2025.

Pressure in High-End Fashion and Sneakers

The Fashion and Luxury vertical experienced continued same-store sales pressure, particularly within the high-end Fashion and Sneakers sub-verticals, although there are early signs of stabilization.

Company Guidance

In the Riskified Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance on various financial metrics for the upcoming fiscal year. Riskified reported a 15% increase in GMV for 2024 and a 10% revenue growth, achieving $327.5 million in revenue. They expect 2025 revenue to be between $333 million and $346 million, with a midpoint of $339.5 million. The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA between $18 million and $26 million, reflecting continued margin expansion. Riskified is focusing on improving their annual dollar retention (ADR) and net dollar retention (NDR) rates, as 2024 saw a decline from historical levels. For 2025, they plan to expand their multi-product platform and aim for a gross profit margin of 52% to 53.5%. Additionally, they have initiated a restructuring plan to maintain flat total expenses while increasing their R&D capacity by nearly 20%. The company ended 2024 with $376 million in cash and zero debt and generated $39 million in free cash flow for the year.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.