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Ross Stores (ROST)
NASDAQ:ROST

Ross Stores (ROST) AI Stock Analysis

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Ross Stores

(NASDAQ:ROST)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$153.00
▲(14.63%Upside)
Ross Stores has a solid financial foundation and strategic growth initiatives, but faces challenges like flat comparable sales and tariff impacts. Technical indicators are mixed, and valuation is moderate, contributing to a balanced overall score.
Positive Factors
Market Opportunity
Ross Stores remains favorably positioned in a growing off-price market with market share opportunity from department store share loss.
Market Positioning
Ross is gaining market share as a trade-down destination due to its strong value positioning.
Sales Performance
Sales improved sequentially through the quarter, with cosmetics being the best performing category and broad-based strength across income demographics.
Negative Factors
Guidance Uncertainty
Management pulled full-year guidance due to macroeconomic and tariff-related uncertainty, which was unexpected given the company's nimble model.
Margin Pressure
Management guided to 90-120 basis points of margin pressure in the second quarter from tariffs, reflecting goods in transit and increased distribution center labor costs.
Tariff Impact
Tariffs have negatively impacted Ross's margins and demand.

Ross Stores (ROST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ross Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRoss Stores, Inc. (ROST) is a leading American off-price retail company, operating under the brand names Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS. The company offers a wide range of name-brand apparel, accessories, footwear, and home decor at significantly discounted prices compared to traditional department stores. Established in 1982, Ross Stores has grown to become one of the largest off-price retailers in the United States, with a focus on providing exceptional value to cost-conscious customers.
How the Company Makes MoneyRoss Stores makes money primarily through the sale of discounted apparel, footwear, accessories, and home goods. The company's revenue model is based on purchasing excess inventory from manufacturers and department stores at reduced prices and passing these savings onto customers. This off-price retail strategy allows Ross Stores to offer competitive pricing, attracting a wide customer base looking for brand-name products at lower costs. The company operates a vast network of retail locations across the United States, generating revenue from in-store sales. Additionally, Ross Stores benefits from economies of scale and efficient inventory management, which help maintain profitability. Key factors contributing to its earnings include strategic store locations, effective marketing, and a strong supply chain network that enables the company to continuously source and replenish its product offerings.

Ross Stores Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Store Count
Store Count
Indicates the total number of retail locations, highlighting the company's expansion strategy and market penetration. A growing store count can signal aggressive growth and increased market presence.
Chart InsightsRoss Stores continues its strategic expansion with a consistent increase in store count, adding 16 new Ross and 3 dd's discount locations recently. Despite flat comparable store sales and a slight decline in net income, the company plans to open 90 new stores by year-end, signaling confidence in growth potential. However, tariff impacts and increased freight costs pose challenges, potentially affecting margins. The withdrawal of annual guidance reflects caution amid uncertainties, but the expansion strategy suggests a long-term focus on market presence and competitive pricing.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Ross Stores Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 22, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -12.09%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Ross Stores demonstrated resilience with growth in total sales and strategic store expansions, but faced challenges with flat comparable store sales, net income decline, and significant impacts from tariffs. The withdrawal of annual guidance due to uncertainties reflects cautious sentiment.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Total Sales Growth
Total sales grew 3% to $5 billion, achieving the high end of expectations despite a slow start.
Cosmetics Segment Performance
Cosmetics was the strongest merchandise area during the quarter with broad-based geographic trends.
Store Expansion
Opened 16 new Ross and 3 dd's discount locations, with plans for 90 new stores in 2025.
Stock Repurchase Program
Repurchased 2 million shares for $263 million, with a plan to repurchase $1.05 billion in total for 2025.
Negative Updates
Flat Comparable Store Sales
Comparable store sales were flat for the quarter, reflecting no growth versus the previous year.
Net Income Decline
Net income for the period was $479 million, down from $488 million in the same period of 2024.
Impact of Tariffs
Tariffs resulted in a merchandise margin decline of 45 basis points, with expected further impacts in the next quarter.
Limited Visibility and Guidance Withdrawal
Withdrew annual guidance due to too many unknown variables, including trade policy and consumer sentiment.
Company Guidance
During the Ross Stores First Quarter 2025 Earnings Release Conference Call, the company reported a 3% increase in total sales, reaching $5 billion, with comparable store sales remaining flat compared to the previous year. Earnings per share slightly rose to $1.47 from $1.46 in the prior year, with net income at $479 million versus $488 million for the same period in 2024. The operating margin remained steady at 12.2%. Ross Stores opened 16 new Ross locations and 3 dd's discount locations, planning to open approximately 90 new stores by year-end. Inventory levels increased by 8%, with average store inventories up 4%. The company is navigating tariff impacts, with merchandise margin declining by 45 basis points due to increased ocean freight costs and tariffs, which are projected to impact second-quarter earnings per share by $0.11 to $0.16. Despite uncertainties, Ross Stores aims to maintain a competitive pricing strategy and expects second-quarter comparable store sales to range from flat to a 3% increase, with an operating margin projected between 10.7% and 11.4%, considering a 90 to 120 basis point tariff impact.

Ross Stores Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ross Stores displays strong revenue growth, robust profitability, and stable financial management. The company shows resilience in the apparel retail sector, supported by effective operational strategies and sound financial practices.
Income Statement
83
Very Positive
Ross Stores has demonstrated strong and consistent revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase in total revenue from 2021 to 2025. The company maintains healthy profit margins, with a notable gross profit margin and net profit margin. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid, indicating efficient operational management. The trajectory indicates robust financial health and profitability in the competitive apparel retail industry.
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
The balance sheet of Ross Stores reflects a stable financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is reasonable, indicating balanced leverage. The company has maintained a solid return on equity, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio suggests a healthy proportion of equity financing relative to total assets, contributing to financial stability.
Cash Flow
79
Positive
Ross Stores exhibits strong cash flow management, with consistent operating cash flow and positive free cash flow. The growth rate in free cash flow highlights the company's capacity to generate cash, supporting its operations and growth strategies. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates efficient conversion of profits into cash, enhancing liquidity.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
21.26B21.13B20.38B18.70B18.92B12.53B
Gross Profit
4.50B5.87B5.58B4.75B5.21B2.69B
EBIT
2.60B2.59B2.31B1.99B2.33B189.71M
EBITDA
3.03B3.27B2.97B2.38B2.69B553.96M
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.08B2.09B1.87B1.51B1.72B85.38M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.78B4.73B4.87B4.55B4.92B4.82B
Total Assets
14.30B14.91B14.30B13.42B13.64B12.72B
Total Debt
5.02B5.68B5.75B5.71B5.62B5.73B
Net Debt
1.23B951.68M875.26M1.15B699.77M913.51M
Total Liabilities
8.46B9.40B9.43B9.13B9.58B9.43B
Stockholders Equity
5.84B5.51B4.87B4.29B4.06B3.29B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
1.61B1.64B1.75B1.04B1.18B1.84B
Operating Cash Flow
2.40B2.36B2.51B1.69B1.74B2.25B
Investing Cash Flow
-708.59M-637.46M-762.81M-654.07M-557.84M-405.43M
Financing Cash Flow
-2.56B-1.86B-1.43B-1.41B-1.15B1.70B

Ross Stores Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price133.47
Price Trends
50DMA
140.87
Negative
100DMA
138.66
Negative
200DMA
143.11
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.29
Positive
RSI
35.36
Neutral
STOCH
15.89
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ROST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 133.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 143.78, below the 50-day MA of 140.87, and below the 200-day MA of 143.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ROST.

Ross Stores Risk Analysis

Ross Stores disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ross Stores reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ross Stores Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$18.39B77.1215.84%34.75%60.65%
GAGAP
72
Outperform
$8.29B9.6829.16%2.95%1.07%28.03%
TJTJX
71
Outperform
$140.61B29.7260.36%1.36%3.79%5.23%
69
Neutral
$44.85B21.5739.57%1.19%2.49%6.60%
69
Neutral
$15.06B29.1044.13%8.29%38.09%
AEAEO
64
Neutral
$1.80B10.6312.19%4.95%-0.95%-10.51%
63
Neutral
$6.94B11.342.80%4.26%2.68%-24.70%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ROST
Ross Stores
133.47
-10.88
-7.54%
AEO
American Eagle
10.07
-9.84
-49.42%
GAP
Gap Inc
21.62
-2.64
-10.88%
TJX
TJX Companies
124.46
17.34
16.19%
BURL
Burlington Stores
237.08
9.06
3.97%
ONON
On Holding AG
55.73
13.73
32.69%

Ross Stores Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ross Stores Concludes Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
May 28, 2025

Ross Stores held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 21, 2025, where stockholders voted on three key matters. The election of 11 directors for a one-year term was approved, executive compensation received advisory approval, and Deloitte & Touche LLP was ratified as the independent public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (ROST) stock is a Buy with a $175.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ross Stores stock, see the ROST Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.