TJX Companies (TJX) AI Stock Analysis

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TJX Companies

(NYSE:TJX)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:76Outperform

Price Target:

$179.00

▲(10.73% Upside)

Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (material margin expansion and solid free cash flow) and a constructive earnings outlook with meaningful capital returns. Technicals are supportive with the stock in an uptrend, but the overall score is held back by a relatively high P/E and key watch-items around gross margin pressure, inventory, and tariff uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation & FCF

Sustained operating cash flow and robust free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capex, store growth, remodels, dividends and buybacks without heavy reliance on external financing. This cash conversion underpins capital returns while preserving flexibility to weather margin or inventory cycles.

Off-price model & vendor access

A large vendor network and the off‑price 'treasure-hunt' model supply steady, differentiated merchandise at favorable costs. That structural sourcing advantage supports repeat customer traffic, pricing flexibility and resilience versus full‑price peers, helping sustain revenue and margin recovery over time.

Scale with disciplined capital returns

Large scale drives purchasing leverage and operational efficiency, while sizable buybacks and a material dividend raise signal disciplined capital allocation. Combined, scale and committed returns reinforce investor confidence and reflect management's ability to convert cash flow into sustainable shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Compressed gross margin

A material decline in gross margin versus historical range suggests persistent markdowns, mix shifts or cost pressures that could structurally erode profitability. Even with operating efficiency gains, sustained lower gross margins reduce cushion for SG&A, interest costs and shareholder returns over the medium term.

Elevated inventory levels

Higher inventories tie up working capital and raise the risk of markdowns if demand softens, directly pressuring gross margins and cash conversion. Persistent elevated stock can force promotional activity or margin dilution and increases sensitivity to shifts in consumer trends over the next several quarters.

High absolute debt burden

Although leverage ratios have improved, the larger absolute debt stock increases interest and refinancing exposure and limits flexibility during downturns. Elevated debt can amplify earnings sensitivity to interest cost swings and constrain larger strategic investments or opportunistic M&A.

TJX Companies (TJX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$179.52B

Dividend Yield1.07%

Average Volume (3M)5.45M

Price to Earnings (P/E)33.2

Beta (1Y)0.44

Revenue Growth4.53%

EPS Growth6.52%

CountryUS

Employees364,000

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustryApparel - Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.43

Shares Outstanding1,110,467,000

10 Day Avg. Volume4,680,326

30 Day Avg. Volume5,451,730

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio2.28

Price to Book (P/B)16.54

Price to Sales (P/S)2.79

P/FCF Ratio34.71

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09

Enterprise Value/Revenue3.25

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.46

Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.67

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$175.27

Price Target Upside8.42% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering16

EPS Forecast (FY)5.13

Revenue Forecast (FY)$63.74B

TJX Companies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe TJX Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. It operates through four segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. The company sells family apparel, including footwear and accessories; home fashions, such as home basics, furniture, rugs, lighting products, giftware, soft home products, decorative accessories, tabletop, and cookware, as well as expanded pet, kids, and gourmet food departments; jewelry and accessories; and other merchandise. As of February 23, 2022, it operated 1,284 T.J. Maxx, 1,148 Marshalls, 850 HomeGoods, 59 Sierra, and 39 Homesense stores, as well as tjmaxx.com, marshalls.com, and sierra.com in the United States; 293 Winners, 147 HomeSense, and 106 Marshalls stores in Canada; 618 T.K. Maxx and 77 Homesense stores, as well as tkmaxx.com in Europe; and 68 T.K. Maxx stores in Australia. The company was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes MoneyTJX Companies generates revenue primarily through the sale of merchandise in its retail stores and online platforms. The company's revenue model is based on providing consumers with brand-name and designer products at lower prices than traditional retailers. Key revenue streams include sales from its various store formats, which benefit from a treasure-hunt shopping experience that encourages repeat visits. Additionally, TJX leverages its relationships with a vast network of suppliers to obtain excess inventory at favorable prices, allowing it to maintain low operating costs. The company's ability to offer a constantly changing assortment of products helps drive customer traffic and sales. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include effective inventory management, strong brand partnerships, and an established reputation for value retailing. Furthermore, the company's international expansion and online sales initiatives have been pivotal in enhancing its revenue growth.

TJX Companies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Store Count by Type

Store Count by Type
Provides the number of stores categorized by type, offering insight into the company's retail footprint and strategic focus on different retail formats.

Chart InsightsTJX Companies is expanding its store footprint significantly, particularly in the Marmaxx and HomeGoods segments, which aligns with the strong sales growth reported in the latest earnings call. The recent surge in Marmaxx store count suggests a strategic push to capitalize on increased customer transactions. HomeGoods also shows robust expansion, supported by a 4% comp sales growth. Despite challenges like tariff pressures and foreign exchange impacts, TJX's flexible business model and strong international performance, especially in Europe and Australia, underpin its optimistic growth outlook.

Data provided by:

The Fly

TJX Companies Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026

(Q4-2026)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call highlights a strong quarter and full-year performance with double-digit EPS growth, margin expansion, robust cash generation, record annual sales above $60 billion, broad-based comp strength across divisions, ambitious store growth and shareholder return plans. Risks noted include tariff uncertainty, elevated inventory levels, some SG&A volatility (incentive accruals and higher store payroll), and litigation adjustments excluded from adjusted results. On balance, the positives substantially outweigh the challenges, with management confident in execution, marketing initiatives, inventory availability and the ability to capture additional market share.

Q4-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Quarterly Sales and Same-Store Sales Strength

Q4 net sales of $17.7 billion, up 9% year-over-year; consolidated comparable store sales (comps) up 5% in Q4 (on top of +5% prior year).

Strong Quarterly Profitability and EPS

Q4 adjusted pretax profit margin 12.2%, up 60 basis points from 11.6% prior year; Q4 adjusted diluted EPS $1.43, up 16% from $1.23 and well above plan.

Record Full-Year Net Sales and Comp Performance

Full-year net sales surpassed $60 billion to $60.4 billion, up 7% versus prior year; full-year consolidated comps +5%.

Full-Year Margin and EPS Improvement

Full-year adjusted gross margin 31.0%, up 40 basis points from 30.6% (includes a 20 basis point benefit from shrink); full-year adjusted pretax profit margin 11.7%, up 20 basis points; full-year adjusted diluted EPS $4.73, up 11% from $4.26.

Shrink Recovery

Shrink favorability contributed meaningfully to margins; company reports shrink is essentially back to pre-COVID levels, contributing ~20 bps benefit to gross margin.

Inventory Availability and Positioning

Balance sheet inventory up 14% and inventory per store up 10%; management states availability of quality branded merchandise is 'outstanding' and buyers have strong access to vendors (~21,000 vendors).

Strong Cash Generation and Shareholder Returns

Generated $6.9 billion of operating cash flow and ended year with $6.2 billion in cash; returned $4.3 billion to shareholders in fiscal '26 through buybacks and dividends.

Divisional Milestones and Broad-Based Strength

Marmaxx sales $36.6B with comps +4% and adjusted segment margin 14.4%; HomeGoods topped $10B in sales with comps +5% and segment margin 12%; TJX Canada comps +7% with sales $5.6B and segment margin 13.8% (constant currency); TJX International sales $8B with comps +4% and margin 7.3% (constant currency).

Growth and Capital Plans

Fiscal '27 guidance: consolidated sales $62.7B–$63.3B (up 4%–5%), comps +2%–3%, EPS guidance $4.93–$5.02 (up 4%–6%); capex $2.2B–$2.3B; plan to add ~146 net new stores (~3% growth) and ~540 remodels.

Commitment to Returning Capital and Dividend Increase

Board expected to increase quarterly dividend by 13% to $0.48/share for fiscal '27 and plans $2.5B–$2.75B in share repurchases.

Negative Updates

Tariff and Policy Uncertainty

Management is monitoring recent tariff rulings and the changing tariff environment; guidance assumes the company can offset tariff pressure but acknowledges uncertainty and potential vendor/channel impacts.

Higher Inventory Levels

Balance sheet inventory up 14% and per-store inventory up 10% year-over-year — management expresses confidence but elevated inventory could pose risk if demand weakens or requires markdowns.

Unfavorable Inventory Hedges and Net Interest Impact

Q4 gross margin improvement was partially offset by unfavorable inventory hedges; net interest income negatively impacted pretax profit margin by 10 basis points in Q4 and full year.

SG&A Variability and Incentive Accruals

Full-year adjusted SG&A was 19.5% (10 bps unfavorable to prior year); Q4 SG&A leverage lighter than expected mainly due to higher incentive compensation accruals; Q1 guidance expects SG&A of 19.8% (40 bps unfavorable y/y) driven by incremental store wage and payroll costs.

Weather Disruption Impacted Q4 Trends

Winter storms late in the quarter temporarily reduced comp trends (management noted comps were trending higher prior to storms but sales picked up after storms passed).

Litigation-Related Items Excluded from Adjusted Results

Reported adjusted results exclude the net impact of a litigation settlement related to credit card interchange fees and related expenses, representing an item to monitor for future reported GAAP results.

HomeGoods vs Marmaxx Margin Gap

HomeGoods margin has historically lagged Marmaxx (though improving); management declined to commit to parity and noted continued effort is required despite strong recent leverage (HomeGoods leveraged 150 bps in Q4 and 110 bps on the year).

Shrink Improvement May Be Harder to Repeat

Management indicated the significant shrink improvements achieved over the last two years (20 bps each year) brought shrink back to pre-COVID levels, and future incremental gains are likely to be smaller.

Company Guidance

TJX guided fiscal 2027 comp sales of 2–3% and consolidated net sales of $62.7–$63.3 billion (up 4–5%), with full‑year adjusted pretax profit margin of 11.7–11.8% (flat to +10 bps), gross margin 31.1–31.2% (+10–20 bps), SG&A 19.5% (flat), net interest income of $76 million (delevering pretax by ~10 bps), a 25.0% tax rate, ~1.12 billion weighted shares, and diluted EPS of $4.93–$5.02 (up 4–6% vs $4.73). For Q1 they expect comps +2–3%, sales $13.8–$13.9 billion (up 5–6%), pretax margin 10.3–10.4%, gross margin 29.9–30.0% (+40–50 bps), SG&A 19.8% (↑40 bps y/y), net interest income $22 million (neutral to Q1 pretax), a 23.1% tax rate, ~1.12 billion shares, and EPS $0.97–$0.99 (up 5–8% vs $0.92). They plan $2.2–$2.3 billion of capex, ~146 net new stores (year‑end >5,300; ~3% growth), ~540 remodels and ~40 relocations, expect a 13% dividend increase to $0.48 per quarter and $2.5–$2.75 billion of share repurchases, and are monitoring tariff rulings while assuming they can offset tariff pressure.

TJX Companies Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability recovery and efficiency gains (TTM net margin ~9.1%, operating margin ~12.3%) with solid and improving cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$6.8B; free cash flow ~$4.9B). Key risks are the notable drop in TTM gross margin (~22.0% vs prior annual range ~27.6%–30.6%) and higher absolute debt (~$22.4B) despite improved leverage ratios.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Profitability and operating efficiency have strengthened materially from 2021 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months): net margin expanded from ~0.3% (2021) to ~9.1% (TTM), and operating margin improved from ~0.9% to ~12.3%. Revenue has also grown steadily since 2022, reaching ~$60.4B in TTM. The main watch-out is that gross margin in TTM (~22.0%) is notably below the prior annual range (~27.6%–30.6%), suggesting heavier markdowns, mix shift, or cost pressure even as bottom-line margins improved.

Balance Sheet

Positive

Leverage looks more manageable in TTM, with debt-to-equity down to ~0.38 versus elevated levels in 2021–2024 (~1.7–2.7), which improves financial flexibility. Equity and assets have grown over time, supporting balance sheet durability. That said, total debt is higher in absolute dollars in TTM (~$22.4B) versus recent annual periods (~$12.5–$12.8B), so the capital structure still bears monitoring. Return on equity is very strong (TTM ~35%), though it has been unusually high in prior years as well, which can be amplified by a relatively smaller equity base.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash generation is solid and improving: operating cash flow rose to ~$6.8B in TTM and free cash flow reached ~$4.9B, with strong free cash flow growth (~+9.9% in TTM). Free cash flow covers a meaningful portion of earnings (TTM free cash flow is ~69% of net income), indicating good cash conversion. The key weakness is that cash flow coverage of debt remains moderate (TTM operating cash flow relative to total debt ~0.48), and free cash flow has shown some volatility (e.g., decline in 2025).

Breakdown	Jan 2026	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	60.37B	56.36B	54.22B	49.94B	48.55B
Gross Profit	18.69B	17.25B	16.27B	13.79B	13.84B
EBITDA	8.55B	7.66B	7.01B	5.61B	5.38B
Net Income	5.49B	4.86B	4.47B	3.50B	3.28B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	35.77B	31.75B	29.75B	28.35B	28.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.23B	5.33B	5.60B	5.48B	6.23B
Total Debt	22.38B	12.78B	12.54B	12.74B	12.51B
Total Liabilities	25.58B	23.36B	22.45B	21.98B	22.46B
Stockholders Equity	10.19B	8.39B	7.30B	6.36B	6.00B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.86B	4.20B	4.33B	2.63B	2.01B
Operating Cash Flow	6.81B	6.12B	6.06B	4.08B	3.06B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.98B	-2.48B	-1.72B	-1.47B	-1.05B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.12B	-3.84B	-4.21B	-3.31B	-6.20B

TJX Companies Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price161.66

Price Trends

50DMA

154.60

Positive

100DMA

150.23

Positive

200DMA

140.23

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.61

Negative

RSI

65.64

Neutral

STOCH

61.68

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TJX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 161.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 155.14, above the 50-day MA of 154.60, and above the 200-day MA of 140.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TJX.

TJX Companies Risk Analysis

TJX Companies disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TJX Companies reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

TJX Companies Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ROST	80 Outperform	$66.51B	32.14	37.43%	0.90%	3.71%	0.65%
TJX	76 Outperform	$179.52B	33.19	59.13%	1.07%	4.53%	6.52%
GAP	76 Outperform	$10.43B	12.56	25.10%	2.45%	0.29%	3.65%
AEO	74 Outperform	$4.16B	21.21	12.36%	2.09%	-1.15%	-0.98%
URBN	73 Outperform	$5.94B	13.08	17.59%	―	11.09%	51.51%
BURL	68 Neutral	$19.31B	35.24	41.92%	―	6.80%	20.46%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TJX

TJX Companies

161.66

39.61

32.45%

AEO

American Eagle

24.57

12.73

107.46%

GAP

Gap Inc

28.04

7.34

35.43%

ROST

Ross Stores

205.64

70.33

51.98%

URBN

Urban Outfitters

66.20

7.34

12.47%

BURL

Burlington Stores

306.87

71.24

30.23%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 27, 2026