Burlington Stores (BURL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.06B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 933.62K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 32.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: 8.29%
• EPS Growth: 38.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 17,057
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.60
• Shares Outstanding: 63,086,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 832,753
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 933,621
• PEG Ratio: 6.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 11.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 90.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.52
• 1Y Price Target: $313.29
• Price Target Upside: 19.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $268.00 ▲(2.19%Upside)

Burlington Stores' overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and strategic corporate events, such as securing new loans. However, technical indicators and valuation concerns, including a high P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield, temper the score. The earnings call provides a cautiously optimistic outlook, but challenges like flat comp sales and economic uncertainties remain.

Positive Factors

Margin Improvement

Margins have expanded and beat expectations, with EPS above guidance, aided partially by favorable timing.

Sales Growth

Burlington Stores has shown consistent sales growth driven by low single-digit comps and 4-7% store growth, benefiting from the thematic push to off-price shopping.

Negative Factors

Comparative Performance

Disappointing second quarter to date comp commentary compared to peers and lesser first quarter outperformance when adjusted for one-time items pressured the stock.

Management Outlook

A broadly cautious management tone also contributed to the stock pressure.

Tariffs Impact

Tariffs will significantly pressure merchandise margin, but at current levels, they can be offset elsewhere in the P&L.

Burlington Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Burlington Stores, Inc. is a leading off-price retailer in the United States, operating over 700 stores across the country. The company offers a wide variety of high-quality, branded apparel, footwear, accessories, home goods, and beauty products at discounted prices. Burlington's business model focuses on providing value to customers by delivering significant savings compared to traditional retail stores. The company targets a broad demographic, appealing to budget-conscious consumers who are looking for brand-name merchandise at reduced prices.

How the Company Makes Money

Burlington Stores makes money primarily through the sale of merchandise in its off-price retail stores. The company's revenue model is based on purchasing excess inventory from various brands and manufacturers at a discounted rate, which it then sells to consumers at competitive prices while maintaining a healthy profit margin. Key revenue streams include the sales of women's and men's apparel, youth apparel, footwear, home products, and beauty items. Burlington's business strategy focuses on maintaining low operating costs and optimizing inventory turnover to maximize profitability. The company benefits from strong vendor relationships and a flexible supply chain, enabling it to quickly adapt to changing consumer preferences and market trends. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include strategic store locations, effective marketing campaigns, and a focus on customer experience, which drive foot traffic and sales.

Burlington Stores Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Burlington Stores shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with stable margins and positive cash flows. However, high leverage and fluctuating free cash flow present potential risks.

Income Statement

Burlington Stores has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from $5.76 billion in 2021 to $10.78 billion in TTM 2025, indicating robust demand and effective business strategies. The gross profit margin has remained stable, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved, showcasing enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin has slightly declined, suggesting potential cost pressures or increased competition.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if interest rates rise or cash flows decrease. However, the return on equity has improved, reflecting better utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio has increased over the years, suggesting a strengthening financial position.

Cash Flow

Burlington Stores' operating cash flow has been consistently positive, indicating strong cash generation from core operations. However, free cash flow has fluctuated, with negative figures in TTM 2025, primarily due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, but the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates potential challenges in converting profits into free cash flow.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.63B	9.72B	8.70B	9.32B	5.76B
Gross Profit	4.61B	4.13B	3.53B	3.89B	2.21B
EBITDA	1.09B	851.24M	636.38M	837.12M	-119.47M
Net Income	503.64M	339.65M	230.12M	408.84M	-216.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.77B	7.71B	7.27B	7.09B	6.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	994.70M	925.36M	872.62M	1.09B	1.38B
Total Debt	5.37B	4.80B	4.70B	4.45B	4.64B
Total Liabilities	7.40B	6.71B	6.47B	6.33B	6.32B
Stockholders Equity	1.37B	996.93M	794.90M	760.42M	464.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-28.61M	351.45M	145.28M	480.12M	-54.10M
Operating Cash Flow	863.38M	868.74M	596.38M	833.16M	219.18M
Investing Cash Flow	-882.25M	-503.75M	-423.14M	-344.39M	-274.13M
Financing Cash Flow	88.22M	-318.84M	-391.71M	-777.96M	1.03B

Burlington Stores Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 262.26
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BURL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 262.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 241.45, above the 50-day MA of 244.01, and above the 200-day MA of 255.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BURL.

Burlington Stores Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ANF	79 Outperform	$4.25B	8.83	46.98%	―	12.54%	25.47%
URBN	79 Outperform	$6.26B	14.58	19.55%	―	8.38%	52.18%
TJX	74 Outperform	$135.82B	28.71	60.36%	1.40%	3.79%	5.23%
BURL	71 Outperform	$16.06B	32.19	44.13%	―	8.29%	38.09%
GAP	71 Outperform	$7.72B	9.02	29.16%	3.26%	1.07%	28.03%
ROST	66 Neutral	$41.73B	20.18	39.57%	1.25%	2.49%	6.60%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$16.78B	10.88	-7.08%	3.04%	1.73%	-25.15%

Burlington Stores Corporate Events

Burlington Stores Secures $500 Million in New Loans

On June 11, 2025, Burlington Coat Factory Warehouse Corporation amended its Credit Agreement to secure $500 million in incremental term loans. These funds will support general corporate activities, including purchasing a distribution center and repaying ABL borrowings, enhancing the company’s operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (BURL) stock is a Buy with a $279.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burlington Stores stock, see the BURL Stock Forecast page.

Burlington Stores Approves Amended Incentive Plan at Meeting

On May 20, 2025, Burlington Stores, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where the First Amendment to the 2022 Omnibus Incentive Plan was approved, increasing the shares of common stock by 3,100,000. Additionally, stockholders voted on various proposals, including the election of directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor, an advisory vote on executive compensation, and the approval of the Amended 2022 Plan, with significant participation from eligible voting shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (BURL) stock is a Buy with a $279.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burlington Stores stock, see the BURL Stock Forecast page.