Burlington Stores (BURL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $17.69B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 894.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.15
• Revenue Growth: 8.29%
• EPS Growth: 38.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 17,057
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 81
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.60
• Shares Outstanding: 63,086,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 878,735
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 894,571
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.85
• 1Y Price Target: $323.93
• Price Target Upside: 16.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $309.00 ▲(10.73% Upside)

Burlington Stores' strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are key strengths, driving the score. However, high leverage, valuation concerns, and macroeconomic risks temper the overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings Growth

The supply chain driven transformation supports a multi-year bull case with significant earnings per share growth potential by FY28.

Investor Sentiment

Management's tone is expected to be bullish on the buying environment, which could positively influence investor sentiment.

Retail Performance

Improved in-store marketing and stable traffic trends indicate a potentially strong performance for Burlington Stores.

Negative Factors

Management Tone

A broadly cautious management tone also contributed to the stock pressure.

Tariff Impact

Tariff impact in the second half of the year is identified as a risk.

Traffic Trends

Placer traffic data indicate that traffic decelerated slightly in the quarter, which does not support the idea of significantly accelerating comps.

Burlington Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Burlington Stores, Inc. is a leading off-price retailer of apparel and home products in the United States. The company operates a chain of stores offering a wide assortment of merchandise, including women's, men's, and children's clothing, footwear, accessories, and home goods. Burlington targets value-conscious consumers by providing high-quality products at discounted prices, making it a popular destination for shoppers looking for bargains while maintaining a focus on current fashion trends.

How the Company Makes Money

Burlington Stores generates revenue primarily through the sale of merchandise in its retail locations and online. The company's revenue model is built on offering brand-name and designer products at prices significantly lower than traditional department stores. Key revenue streams include the sale of clothing, footwear, and home products. Burlington benefits from a flexible buying strategy, allowing it to purchase excess inventory from manufacturers and wholesalers at reduced prices, which it can then sell to customers at competitive rates. Additionally, Burlington's expansion into e-commerce has opened new sales channels, contributing to its overall revenue growth. The company's ability to adapt to changing market trends and consumer preferences, along with its focus on cost-effective operations, further supports its earnings.

Burlington Stores Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Burlington Stores shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with stable margins and positive cash flows. However, high leverage and fluctuating free cash flow present potential risks.

Income Statement

Burlington Stores has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from $5.76 billion in 2021 to $10.78 billion in TTM 2025, indicating robust demand and effective business strategies. The gross profit margin has remained stable, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin has improved, showcasing enhanced profitability. However, the EBIT margin has slightly declined, suggesting potential cost pressures or increased competition.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if interest rates rise or cash flows decrease. However, the return on equity has improved, reflecting better utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio has increased over the years, suggesting a strengthening financial position.

Cash Flow

Burlington Stores' operating cash flow has been consistently positive, indicating strong cash generation from core operations. However, free cash flow has fluctuated, with negative figures in TTM 2025, primarily due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, but the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates potential challenges in converting profits into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.78B	10.63B	9.72B	8.70B	9.32B	5.76B
Gross Profit	4.68B	4.61B	4.13B	3.53B	3.89B	2.21B
EBITDA	1.12B	1.09B	851.24M	636.38M	837.12M	-119.47M
Net Income	525.96M	503.64M	339.65M	230.12M	408.84M	-216.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.55B	8.77B	7.71B	7.27B	7.09B	6.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	371.09M	994.70M	925.36M	872.62M	1.09B	1.38B
Total Debt	5.33B	5.37B	4.80B	4.70B	4.45B	4.64B
Total Liabilities	7.20B	7.40B	6.71B	6.47B	6.33B	6.32B
Stockholders Equity	1.35B	1.37B	996.93M	794.90M	760.42M	464.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	283.77M	-28.61M	351.45M	145.28M	480.12M	-54.10M
Operating Cash Flow	785.10M	863.38M	868.74M	596.38M	833.16M	219.18M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.13B	-882.25M	-503.75M	-423.14M	-344.39M	-274.13M
Financing Cash Flow	-26.93M	88.22M	-318.84M	-391.71M	-777.96M	1.03B

Burlington Stores Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 279.05
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BURL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 279.05 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 278.31, above the 50-day MA of 261.57, and above the 200-day MA of 258.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BURL.

Burlington Stores Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TJX	79 Outperform	$152.48B	30.92	59.75%	1.17%	4.14%	―
ANF	76 Outperform	$4.61B	9.53	46.98%	―	12.54%	25.47%
ROST	75 Outperform	$48.51B	23.43	37.98%	1.04%	1.92%	1.50%
URBN	75 Outperform	$6.84B	15.98	19.55%	―	8.38%	52.18%
BURL	73 Outperform	$17.69B	34.41	44.13%	―	8.29%	38.09%
GAP	72 Outperform	$8.05B	9.37	29.16%	2.92%	1.07%	28.03%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.75B	12.51	-5.49%	3.06%	1.43%	-14.10%

Burlington Stores Corporate Events

Burlington Stores Elects Michael Skirvin to Board

On August 21, 2025, Burlington Stores announced the election of Michael Skirvin to its Board of Directors and Audit Committee, effective November 18, 2025. Skirvin, with over 30 years of experience in the off-price retail sector, is expected to contribute significantly to Burlington’s strategic growth and the execution of its Burlington 2.0 strategy, enhancing the company’s industry positioning.

Burlington Stores Amends Credit Agreement for Growth

On July 25, 2025, Burlington Coat Factory Warehouse Corporation amended its credit agreement to increase the aggregate principal amount from $900 million to $1 billion and extend the maturity date to July 25, 2030. This strategic move, facilitated by major financial institutions, aims to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and support its long-term growth objectives.

Burlington Stores Secures $500 Million in New Loans

On June 11, 2025, Burlington Coat Factory Warehouse Corporation amended its Credit Agreement to secure $500 million in incremental term loans. These funds will support general corporate activities, including purchasing a distribution center and repaying ABL borrowings, enhancing the company’s operational flexibility.

Burlington Stores Approves Amended Incentive Plan at Meeting

On May 20, 2025, Burlington Stores, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where the First Amendment to the 2022 Omnibus Incentive Plan was approved, increasing the shares of common stock by 3,100,000. Additionally, stockholders voted on various proposals, including the election of directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor, an advisory vote on executive compensation, and the approval of the Amended 2022 Plan, with significant participation from eligible voting shares.