Burlington Stores (BURL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.26B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.16M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.13
• Revenue Growth: 8.29%
• EPS Growth: 38.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 17,057
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 54
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.60
• Shares Outstanding: 63,086,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 949,289
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,161,006
• PEG Ratio: -1.51
• Price to Book (P/B): 18.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 102.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.31
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.44
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.39
• 1Y Price Target: $313.29
• Price Target Upside: 36.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $246.00 ▲(7.38%Upside)

The overall score reflects Burlington Stores' strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, tempered by high leverage, negative free cash flow, and technical bearish signals. While earnings show promise, external factors like tariffs and economic uncertainty pose risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Margins have expanded and beat expectations, with EPS above the guidance, aided partially by favorable timing.

Market Trends

The company benefits from the thematic push to off-price shopping and expects strong top- and bottom-line growth ahead.

Sales Growth

BURL has shown consistent sales growth driven by LSD comps and 4-7% store growth, with management planning to expand under-penetrated categories and chase sales via opportunistic buying.

Negative Factors

Economic Environment

ST demand picture could be challenged in current macro, with a weaker low-income consumer.

Management Tone

A broadly cautious management tone also contributed to the stock pressure.

Tariffs Impact

Management cited significant risk to merchandise margin from tariffs but expects to offset this pressure with cost savings elsewhere.

Burlington Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Burlington Stores, Inc. is a leading off-price apparel and home product retailer operating in the United States. With a focus on providing significant discounts on a wide range of merchandise, Burlington offers clothing, shoes, accessories, and home goods. The company serves a broad customer base through its chain of retail stores, which are strategically located across the country to provide value to consumers seeking high-quality products at competitive prices.

How the Company Makes Money

Burlington Stores generates revenue primarily through the sale of merchandise at its retail locations. The company's revenue model is based on purchasing branded and non-branded goods at a discount from suppliers and then selling them to consumers at prices that are lower than traditional retail. Key revenue streams include apparel for women, men, and children, footwear, home textiles, and decor. Burlington's business model relies on maintaining strong relationships with suppliers and a robust supply chain to ensure a steady influx of new inventory at reduced prices. Additionally, the company's ability to quickly adapt to consumer trends and preferences, along with its efficient in-store operations, significantly contributes to its earnings.

Burlington Stores Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Burlington Stores demonstrates strong revenue and profitability growth with efficient operations and market expansion. However, high leverage and negative free cash flow due to capital expenditures remain areas of concern.

Income Statement

Burlington Stores shows strong revenue growth with a robust trajectory from $5.76 billion in 2021 to $10.78 billion TTM in 2025, indicating a solid recovery and expansion. The gross profit margin consistently remained above 40% with a TTM figure of 43.4%, reflecting efficient cost management. The net profit margin improved significantly from negative in 2021 to 4.9% TTM in 2025, demonstrating enhanced profitability. EBITDA margin also improved, indicating operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects strong growth and profitability trends.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows some strengths and weaknesses. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 3.94 TTM, which could pose a risk if not managed well, though it has improved from previous years. Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 38.9% TTM, reflecting strong profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio improved over the years but remains moderate at 15.8% TTM, indicating potential leverage concerns. Despite these leverage metrics, the company is showing strength in profitability returns.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has shown a positive trend, with TTM figures showing resilience despite capital expenditure impacting free cash flow negatively at -$345 million. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting strong cash generation relative to income. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio indicates challenges in covering capital investments, which needs attention. While cash flow operations are strong, investment expenditures are straining free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.78B	10.63B	9.72B	8.70B	9.32B	5.76B
Gross Profit	4.68B	4.61B	4.13B	3.53B	3.89B	2.21B
EBITDA	1.12B	1.09B	851.24M	636.38M	837.12M	-119.47M
Net Income	525.96M	503.64M	339.65M	230.12M	408.84M	-216.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	8.55B	8.77B	7.71B	7.27B	7.09B	6.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	371.09M	994.70M	925.36M	872.62M	1.09B	1.38B
Total Debt	5.33B	5.37B	4.80B	4.70B	4.45B	4.64B
Total Liabilities	7.20B	7.40B	6.71B	6.47B	6.33B	6.32B
Stockholders Equity	1.35B	1.37B	996.93M	794.90M	760.42M	464.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-345.29M	-28.61M	351.45M	145.28M	480.12M	-54.10M
Operating Cash Flow	785.10M	863.38M	868.74M	596.38M	833.16M	219.18M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.13B	-882.25M	-503.75M	-423.14M	-344.39M	-274.13M
Financing Cash Flow	-26.93M	88.22M	-318.84M	-391.71M	-777.96M	1.03B

Burlington Stores Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 229.09
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BURL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 229.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 233.50, below the 50-day MA of 237.82, and below the 200-day MA of 257.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BURL.

Burlington Stores Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
URBN	79 Outperform	$6.18B	14.81	19.55%	―	8.38%	52.18%
ANF	75 Outperform	$3.79B	7.83	46.98%	―	12.54%	25.47%
GAP	72 Outperform	$8.01B	9.40	29.16%	3.08%	1.07%	28.03%
TJX	72 Outperform	$136.64B	29.38	60.36%	1.39%	3.79%	5.23%
ROST	67 Neutral	$41.63B	20.29	39.57%	1.27%	2.49%	6.60%
BURL	65 Neutral	$14.26B	27.75	44.13%	―	8.29%	38.09%
Sector *	56 Neutral	HK$24.20B	4.07	-1.57%	11.02%	0.06%	-64.76%

Burlington Stores Corporate Events

Burlington Stores Secures $500 Million in New Loans

On June 11, 2025, Burlington Coat Factory Warehouse Corporation amended its Credit Agreement to secure $500 million in incremental term loans. These funds will support general corporate activities, including purchasing a distribution center and repaying ABL borrowings, enhancing the company’s operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (BURL) stock is a Buy with a $279.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burlington Stores stock, see the BURL Stock Forecast page.

Burlington Stores Approves Amended Incentive Plan at Meeting

On May 20, 2025, Burlington Stores, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where the First Amendment to the 2022 Omnibus Incentive Plan was approved, increasing the shares of common stock by 3,100,000. Additionally, stockholders voted on various proposals, including the election of directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor, an advisory vote on executive compensation, and the approval of the Amended 2022 Plan, with significant participation from eligible voting shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (BURL) stock is a Buy with a $279.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burlington Stores stock, see the BURL Stock Forecast page.