Burlington Stores (BURL) AI Stock Analysis

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Burlington Stores

(NYSE:BURL)

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Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:72Outperform

Price Target:

$291.00

▲(10.91% Upside)

Burlington Stores' strong financial performance and positive earnings call results are significant strengths, driving the overall score. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and the high P/E ratio indicates a premium valuation, which are notable risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent sales growth reflects strong market share gains and successful execution of business strategies, indicating robust demand and effective merchandising.

Operational Efficiency

Improved operating margins demonstrate effective cost management and operational efficiencies, enhancing profitability and competitive positioning.

Strategic Inventory Management

Increased reserve inventory provides flexibility to meet demand, supporting sales growth and allowing agile response to market trends.

Negative Factors

High Debt Levels

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting long-term sustainability and ability to invest in growth.

Tariff Pressure

Tariff pressures could compress margins, challenging profitability and requiring strategic adjustments to mitigate impact on cost structure.

Weather-Related Risks

Weather-related risks can lead to unpredictable sales fluctuations, impacting revenue stability and requiring adaptive inventory and sales strategies.

Burlington Stores (BURL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$16.54B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.06M

Price to Earnings (P/E)31.0

Beta (1Y)1.07

Revenue Growth7.56%

EPS Growth29.06%

CountryUS

Employees17,057

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength84

IndustryApparel - Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.59

Shares Outstanding63,035,015

10 Day Avg. Volume1,008,041

30 Day Avg. Volume1,063,702

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.71

Price to Book (P/B)13.18

Price to Sales (P/S)1.70

P/FCF Ratio-631.58

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.36

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.05

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.70

Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.25

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$353.00

Price Target Upside34.54% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering15

Burlington Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBurlington Stores, Inc. is a leading off-price retailer of apparel and home products in the United States. The company operates a chain of stores offering a wide assortment of merchandise, including women's, men's, and children's clothing, footwear, accessories, and home goods. Burlington targets value-conscious consumers by providing high-quality products at discounted prices, making it a popular destination for shoppers looking for bargains while maintaining a focus on current fashion trends.

How the Company Makes MoneyBurlington Stores generates revenue primarily through the sale of merchandise in its retail locations and online. The company's revenue model is built on offering brand-name and designer products at prices significantly lower than traditional department stores. Key revenue streams include the sale of clothing, footwear, and home products. Burlington benefits from a flexible buying strategy, allowing it to purchase excess inventory from manufacturers and wholesalers at reduced prices, which it can then sell to customers at competitive rates. Additionally, Burlington's expansion into e-commerce has opened new sales channels, contributing to its overall revenue growth. The company's ability to adapt to changing market trends and consumer preferences, along with its focus on cost-effective operations, further supports its earnings.

Burlington Stores Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Segment

Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might focus future strategic efforts.

Chart InsightsBurlington Stores' net sales have shown a consistent upward trend, with a notable boost in the last quarter of each year, likely due to holiday shopping. The latest earnings call highlights a 6% total sales growth, aligning with this trend. However, flat comparable store sales and tariff concerns could temper future growth. The strategic focus on new store openings and increased reserve inventory suggests an adaptive approach to maintaining competitive pricing and expanding market presence despite economic uncertainties.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Burlington Stores Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected strong sales growth and operational efficiency, resulting in improved margins and exceeding earnings expectations. However, concerns about tariff impacts and weather-related sales risks were noted, along with softer performance in the home category.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Sales Growth

Total sales grew 10% on top of 13% growth last year, with comp store sales increasing 5%, demonstrating strong market share gains.

Improved Operating Margin

Operating margin expanded by 120 basis points compared to last year, driven by stronger merchandise margins and expense efficiencies.

Earnings Per Share Exceed Expectations

EPS of $1.72 was $0.42 above the high end of guidance, representing a 39% increase versus the prior year.

Effective Cost Management

Gross margin rate increased by 90 basis points, benefiting from improved shortage and lower markdowns. SG&A costs decreased by 30 basis points due to savings initiatives.

Strategic Inventory Management

Reserve inventory was up 43% compared to last year, providing flexibility to chase stronger sales trends.

Strong Back-to-School Performance

Early back-to-school sales were particularly strong, with multi-year growth driven by a strategy to increase market share.

Negative Updates

Tariff Pressure

Incremental tariff pressure is anticipated in the back half, affecting merchandise margins. Efforts are underway to offset most, but not all, of this pressure.

Weather-Related Risks

Sales trends are sensitive to seasonal weather variations, especially given Burlington's heritage in outerwear.

Home Category Performance

Home category performance was softer, comping below the chain due to industry-wide inventory level dips in Q2.

Company Guidance

During Burlington Stores' second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a 10% increase in total sales and a 5% rise in comparable store sales, both surpassing expectations. The operating margin expanded by 120 basis points, contributing to an EPS of $1.72, which exceeded the high end of the guidance range by $0.42. Despite the strong performance, Burlington maintained a cautious outlook for the second half of the year, projecting 0% to 2% comp sales growth for Q3 and Q4, citing potential weather-related and economic risks. The company raised its full-year guidance, anticipating a 20 to 40 basis point increase in adjusted EBIT margins and an adjusted EPS range of $9.19 to $9.59. The improved second-quarter results were attributed to the Burlington 2.0 initiatives, including Merchandising 2.0 and Stores 2.0, which enhanced operational efficiencies and customer experience. Reserve inventory levels were up 43% year-over-year, providing flexibility to respond to sales trends. Additionally, Burlington opened 23 net new stores during the quarter, contributing to a total of 1,138 stores.

Burlington Stores Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Burlington Stores exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and improving profitability margins. The company has a high return on equity and positive cash flow trends, supporting operational initiatives. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio remains a potential risk factor.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Burlington Stores has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 2.22% and consistent improvement in profitability margins. The gross profit margin stands at 43.62%, and the net profit margin has improved to 4.96%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 7.26% and 10.54%, respectively, indicating efficient cost management and operational performance.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.04, which suggests significant leverage. However, the return on equity is robust at 41.11%, reflecting strong profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is moderate, indicating a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Positive

Burlington Stores shows positive cash flow trends with a free cash flow growth rate of 8.57% TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.38, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.38, indicating effective cash generation relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2023	Dec 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.01B	10.63B	10.63B	9.72B	9.72B	8.69B
Gross Profit	4.80B	4.60B	4.60B	4.13B	4.13B	3.52B
EBITDA	1.11B	1.05B	1.05B	847.36M	847.36M	650.92M
Net Income	546.38M	503.64M	503.64M	339.65M	339.65M	230.12M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.31B	8.77B	8.77B	7.71B	7.71B	7.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	747.62M	994.70M	994.70M	925.36M	925.36M	872.62M
Total Debt	5.84B	5.37B	5.37B	4.80B	4.80B	4.70B
Total Liabilities	7.86B	7.40B	7.40B	6.71B	6.71B	6.47B
Stockholders Equity	1.45B	1.37B	1.37B	996.93M	996.93M	794.90M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	308.10M	-28.61M	-28.61M	351.45M	351.45M	145.28M
Operating Cash Flow	804.10M	863.38M	863.38M	868.74M	868.74M	596.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.10B	-882.25M	-882.25M	-503.75M	-503.75M	-423.14M
Financing Cash Flow	385.00M	88.22M	88.22M	-318.84M	-318.84M	-391.71M

Burlington Stores Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price262.37

Price Trends

50DMA

274.55

Negative

100DMA

261.10

Negative

200DMA

257.68

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-4.99

Negative

RSI

43.56

Neutral

STOCH

49.58

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BURL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 262.37 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 263.39, below the 50-day MA of 274.55, and above the 200-day MA of 257.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BURL.

Burlington Stores Risk Analysis

Burlington Stores disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Burlington Stores reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Burlington Stores Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TJX	79 Outperform	$159.27B	32.25	59.75%	1.12%	4.14%	5.83%
URBN	78 Outperform	$6.55B	14.30	19.72%	―	9.63%	56.06%
ROST	75 Outperform	$49.52B	24.24	37.98%	1.05%	1.92%	1.50%
BURL	72 Outperform	$16.54B	30.96	43.41%	―	7.56%	29.06%
GAP	68 Neutral	$8.01B	9.28	28.07%	2.93%	-0.05%	15.17%
AEO	66 Neutral	$2.67B	16.31	12.17%	3.17%	-2.73%	-16.71%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BURL

Burlington Stores

259.90

8.07

3.20%

AEO

American Eagle

15.48

-4.34

-21.90%

GAP

Gap Inc

21.07

0.82

4.05%

ROST

Ross Stores

150.34

9.52

6.76%

TJX

TJX Companies

142.66

30.10

26.74%

URBN

Urban Outfitters

70.01

33.82

93.45%

Burlington Stores Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy

Burlington Stores Elects Michael Skirvin to Board

Positive

Aug 21, 2025

On August 21, 2025, Burlington Stores announced the election of Michael Skirvin to its Board of Directors and Audit Committee, effective November 18, 2025. Skirvin, with over 30 years of experience in the off-price retail sector, is expected to contribute significantly to Burlington’s strategic growth and the execution of its Burlington 2.0 strategy, enhancing the company’s industry positioning.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy

Burlington Stores Amends Credit Agreement for Growth

Positive

Jul 29, 2025

On July 25, 2025, Burlington Coat Factory Warehouse Corporation amended its credit agreement to increase the aggregate principal amount from $900 million to $1 billion and extend the maturity date to July 25, 2030. This strategic move, facilitated by major financial institutions, aims to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and support its long-term growth objectives.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy

Burlington Stores Secures $500 Million in New Loans

Positive

Jun 13, 2025

On June 11, 2025, Burlington Coat Factory Warehouse Corporation amended its Credit Agreement to secure $500 million in incremental term loans. These funds will support general corporate activities, including purchasing a distribution center and repaying ABL borrowings, enhancing the company’s operational flexibility.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 26, 2025