Burlington Stores (BURL)
NYSE:BURL
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Burlington Stores
(NYSE:BURL)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$319.00
▼(-4.79% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is driven mainly by improving operating performance but constrained by high balance-sheet leverage and inconsistent free cash flow. Guidance and earnings-call sentiment are supportive with solid growth targets and liquidity, while technical signals are mixed and valuation is relatively expensive (P/E ~41.8).
Positive Factors
Off-price business model
Burlington's off-price, opportunistic purchasing and 'treasure-hunt' assortment produces high inventory turnover and repeat shopping behavior. This durable model captures value-seeking shoppers, supports gross-margin spread economics, and provides resilience across consumer cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
High leverage
Elevated leverage (~3.9x debt/equity) constrains financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to an economic slowdown. High debt levels limit capacity for capital returns and raise refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity risks, making multi-month planning more exposed to macro shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Off-price business model
Burlington's off-price, opportunistic purchasing and 'treasure-hunt' assortment produces high inventory turnover and repeat shopping behavior. This durable model captures value-seeking shoppers, supports gross-margin spread economics, and provides resilience across consumer cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Burlington Stores (BURL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$20.84B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)867.43K
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.1
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth6.80%
EPS Growth20.46%
CountryUS
Employees17,057
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.89
Shares Outstanding62,687,428
10 Day Avg. Volume672,921
30 Day Avg. Volume867,426
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.54
Price to Book (P/B)10.50
Price to Sales (P/S)1.64
P/FCF Ratio110.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.25
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$375.09Price Target Upside11.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)11.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.70B
Burlington Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded apparel products in the United States. The company provides fashion-focused merchandise, including women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, toys, gifts...
How the Company Makes Money
Burlington Stores generates revenue primarily through the sale of discounted merchandise in its retail stores and online platforms. The company's revenue model is based on offering high-quality products at lower prices than traditional retailers, ...
Burlington Stores Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might focus future strategic efforts.
Breaks down sales across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might focus future strategic efforts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBurlington Stores Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call is positive: management reported strong Q4 and full-year profitability (operating margin expansion and double-digit EPS growth), robust liquidity, successful execution of elevation and cost actions in response to tariffs, and raised 2026 sales guidance with a bullish tone. Headwinds include tariff-driven assortment trade-offs that constrained sales growth in 2025, near-term margin pressure in Q1 2026 due to DC start-up and timing shifts, inventory build and weather disruption risks, and lingering tariff uncertainty. On balance the company demonstrated effective trade-offs to protect earnings and positioned for growth in 2026.Positive Updates
Strong Fourth Quarter Sales Growth
Total sales increased 11% in Q4 2025 (vs. 10% prior year) and comparable store sales grew 4% (well above guidance of 0%–2%), delivering a two-year comp stack of +10% for the quarter.
Negative Updates
Tariff-Related Assortment Gaps and Sales Trade-Offs
Introduction of tariffs in 2025 forced the company to pull receipts in tariff-impacted categories (notably home and holiday categories), creating assortment gaps that reduced sales upside in H2 2025 and constrained full-year comp performance.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Fourth Quarter Sales Growth
Total sales increased 11% in Q4 2025 (vs. 10% prior year) and comparable store sales grew 4% (well above guidance of 0%–2%), delivering a two-year comp stack of +10% for the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided fiscal 2026 (excluding bankruptcy‑acquired lease costs of ~ $8M vs $35M in 2025) to total sales growth of 8–10% (assuming ~110 net new stores, ~60% opening in H1), comp store sales +1–3%, adjusted EBIT margin flat to +20 bps versus FY25, adjusted EPS $10.95–$11.45 (up ~8–13%), and capital expenditures (net of landlord allowances) of about $875M. For Q1 2026 (ex ~$6M of bankruptcy‑lease expense), they expect total sales +9–11%, comps +2–4%, adjusted EBIT margin down 60–100 bps (cited drivers: markdown timing, tariff cycling and DC start‑up costs) and adjusted EPS $1.60–$1.75 (versus $1.67 in Q1 2025). Company noted ending FY25 liquidity of ~$2.2B ($1.2B cash, $926M ABL availability), repurchases of $59M in Q4 ($251M for the year) with $385M remaining authorization, and a FY25 store base of 1,212 (131 openings, 18 relocations, 9 closings; net +104).Burlington Stores Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.57B | 10.63B | 9.72B | 8.69B | 9.31B |
| Gross Profit | 4.66B | 4.60B | 4.13B | 3.52B | 3.88B |
| EBITDA | 1.27B | 1.05B | 847.36M | 650.92M | 1.02B |
| Net Income | 610.15M | 503.64M | 339.65M | 230.12M | 408.84M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.92B | 8.77B | 7.71B | 7.27B | 7.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.23B | 994.70M | 925.36M | 872.62M | 1.09B |
| Total Debt | 6.01B | 5.37B | 4.80B | 4.70B | 4.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.11B | 7.40B | 6.71B | 6.47B | 6.33B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.81B | 1.37B | 996.93M | 794.90M | 760.42M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 171.59M | -28.61M | 351.45M | 145.28M | 480.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.23B | 863.38M | 868.74M | 596.38M | 833.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.06B | -882.25M | -503.75M | -423.14M | -344.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 61.49M | 88.22M | -318.84M | -391.71M | -777.96M |
Burlington Stores Technical Analysis
Positive
335.04
Price Trends
312.87
Positive
298.18
Positive
284.45
Positive
Market Momentum
7.33
Negative
58.97
Neutral
65.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BURL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 335.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 323.72, above the 50-day MA of 312.87, and above the 200-day MA of 284.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BURL.
Burlington Stores Risk Analysis
Burlington Stores disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Burlington Stores reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Burlington Stores Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $71.22B | 23.35 | 36.70% | 0.90% | 3.71% | 0.65% | |
76 Outperform | $176.35B | 30.68 | 59.53% | 1.07% | 4.53% | 6.52% | |
68 Neutral | $5.77B | 13.74 | 17.66% | ― | 11.09% | 51.51% | |
64 Neutral | $9.42B | 12.79 | 22.98% | 2.45% | 0.29% | 3.65% | |
62 Neutral | $20.84B | 31.09 | 39.79% | ― | 6.80% | 20.46% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $3.01B | 20.90 | 12.12% | 2.09% | -1.15% | -0.98% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BURL
Burlington Stores
335.04
108.72
48.04%
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78.49%
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TJX
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160.28
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URBN
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65.85
18.15
38.05%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.