Burlington Stores (BURL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.93B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: 9.33%
• EPS Growth: 50.05%
• Country: US
• Employees: 17,057
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 4.07
• Shares Outstanding: 62,989,822
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,194,658
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,327,217
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $326.50
• Price Target Upside: 33.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

Burlington Stores' overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, offset by high leverage and cautious guidance for 2025. Technical indicators and valuation suggest potential risks, but the company's strong liquidity and infrastructure investments provide a solid foundation for future growth.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Burlington reported strong 4Q earnings that were better than anticipated, driven by broad-based category strength and impressive comp/EPS upside.

Market Position

Burlington outperformed both MarMaxx and ROST for the first time since 2019, making the stock a top pick with better-than-feared results.

Strategic Initiatives

Burlington's strategic initiatives, including better buying, supply chain improvements, and new store rollouts, are showing progress and driving encouragement.

Negative Factors

Tariffs

An emerging concern for the sector is tariffs on goods imported, which can impact Burlington.

Weather Impact

Burlington's growth was challenged by weather impacts in November and January, creating a headwind to the period.

Burlington Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Burlington Stores, Inc. operates a chain of off-price retail stores, primarily in the United States. The company, originally founded as Burlington Coat Factory, offers a wide range of products including apparel for men, women, and children, as well as home goods, footwear, and accessories. Burlington focuses on providing customers with high-quality, brand-name merchandise at discounted prices, typically offering products at 60-70% off department store prices.

How the Company Makes Money

Burlington Stores generates revenue primarily through the sale of goods in its retail stores. The company's off-price retail model allows it to make money by purchasing excess inventory from manufacturers and other retailers at reduced prices and then selling these products to consumers at a discount. Key revenue streams include sales of clothing, home goods, and accessories. Burlington's ability to quickly turn over inventory and offer fresh merchandise regularly attracts customers looking for bargains on brand-name products. Partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers are significant to its business model, as these relationships allow Burlington to access high-quality goods at lower costs. Additionally, the company's focus on operating efficiently with low overhead costs helps to maximize profit margins.

Burlington Stores Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Burlington Stores exhibits strong financial performance with notable revenue and profit growth, as well as effective cost management. However, high debt levels and a slightly lower EBITDA margin indicate potential risks and areas for improvement. The company's robust cash flow generation is a positive, but careful management is necessary to sustain growth.

Income Statement

Burlington Stores shows strong growth with a revenue increase from $8.70 billion in 2023 to $10.63 billion in 2025. Gross profit and EBIT margins are healthy at 43.3% and 6.3% in 2025, respectively. The net profit margin improved to 4.7% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the EBITDA margin is slightly lower at 10.3% compared to previous years, suggesting room for efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is high at 3.92 in 2025, signaling significant leverage. The equity ratio of 15.6% indicates a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets. Return on equity improved to 36.7% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability relative to equity, but the high leverage poses potential risks in volatile market conditions.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains robust at $863 million in 2025, with a stable operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.71. Free cash flow increased significantly from $351 million in 2024 to $863 million in 2025, suggesting improved cash generation capabilities. However, free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.71, indicating a need for careful cash management to sustain growth.

Breakdown
Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
10.63B	9.72B	8.70B	9.32B	5.76B
	Gross Profit
4.61B	4.13B	3.53B	3.89B	2.21B
	EBIT
674.81M	548.03M	410.04M	776.57M	-333.64M
	EBITDA
1.09B	851.24M	636.38M	837.12M	-119.47M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
503.64M	339.65M	230.12M	408.84M	-216.50M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
994.70M	925.36M	872.62M	1.09B	1.38B
	Total Assets
8.77B	7.71B	7.27B	7.09B	6.78B
	Total Debt
5.37B	4.80B	4.70B	4.45B	4.64B
	Net Debt
4.38B	3.88B	3.83B	3.36B	3.26B
	Total Liabilities
7.40B	6.71B	6.47B	6.33B	6.32B
	Stockholders Equity
1.37B	996.93M	794.90M	760.42M	464.75M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
863.38M	351.45M	145.28M	480.12M	-54.10M
	Operating Cash Flow
863.38M	868.74M	596.38M	833.16M	219.18M
	Investing Cash Flow
-882.25M	-503.75M	-423.14M	-344.39M	-274.13M
	Financing Cash Flow
88.22M	-318.84M	-391.71M	-777.96M	1.03B

Burlington Stores Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 245.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BURL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 245 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 230.67, above the 50-day MA of 235.55, and below the 200-day MA of 260.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BURL.

Burlington Stores Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TJX	77 Outperform	$143.42B	30.27	61.98%	1.17%	3.95%	10.34%
URBN	76 Outperform	$4.80B	12.15	17.56%	―	7.71%	40.01%
GAP	73 Outperform	$8.53B	10.41	28.81%	2.71%	1.32%	65.83%
ROST	73 Outperform	$46.57B	22.40	40.28%	1.06%	3.69%	13.71%
BURL	70 Outperform	$14.93B	30.42	42.55%	―	9.33%	50.05%
ANF	63 Neutral	$3.32B	6.50	47.77%	―	15.60%	71.45%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$6.58B	11.81	3.06%	3.99%	2.54%	-21.54%

Burlington Stores Corporate Events

Burlington Stores Appoints Shira Goodman to Board

Burlington Stores, Inc. has appointed Shira Goodman, a seasoned retail industry leader and former CEO of Staples, Inc., to its Board of Directors and Audit Committee starting January 1, 2025. This strategic move is expected to bring her extensive experience to the table, enhancing Burlington’s growth as they continue to implement the Burlington 2.0 strategy and drive sales and earnings. Goodman’s appointment highlights Burlington’s commitment to strengthening its leadership team as a nationally recognized off-price retailer.