Burlington Stores (BURL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $15.00B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.09
• Revenue Growth: 8.29%
• EPS Growth: 38.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 17,057
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 1.60
• Shares Outstanding: 63,086,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,583,765
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,245,347
• PEG Ratio: 4.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 11.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.30
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.47
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.80
• 1Y Price Target: $315.07
• Price Target Upside: 29.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $245.00 ▲(0.86%Upside)

Burlington Stores' overall stock score is influenced primarily by solid financial performance and a cautiously optimistic earnings call outlook. However, technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment, and valuation concerns due to a high P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield weigh on the score. External risks, such as tariffs and economic conditions, also pose challenges.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

Margins have expanded and beat expectations, with EPS above the guidance, aided partially by favorable timing.

Market Trends

The company benefits from the thematic push to off-price shopping and expects strong top- and bottom-line growth ahead.

Sales Growth

BURL has shown consistent sales growth driven by LSD comps and 4-7% store growth, with management planning to expand under-penetrated categories and chase sales via opportunistic buying.

Negative Factors

Macroeconomic Challenges

ST demand picture could be challenged in current macro, with a weaker low-income consumer.

Management Tone

A broadly cautious management tone also contributed to the stock pressure.

Merchandise Margin

Management cited significant risk to merchandise margin from tariffs but expects to offset this pressure with cost savings elsewhere.

Burlington Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded apparel products in the United States. The company provides fashion-focused merchandise, including women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, toys, gifts, and coats, as well as baby, home, and beauty products. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 837 stores under the Burlington Stores name, 2 stores under the Cohoes Fashions name, and 1 store under the MJM Designer Shoes name in 45 states and Puerto Rico. Burlington Stores, Inc. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

Burlington Stores generates revenue primarily through the sale of merchandise at its retail locations. The company's revenue model is based on purchasing branded and non-branded goods at a discount from suppliers and then selling them to consumers at prices that are lower than traditional retail. Key revenue streams include apparel for women, men, and children, footwear, home textiles, and decor. Burlington's business model relies on maintaining strong relationships with suppliers and a robust supply chain to ensure a steady influx of new inventory at reduced prices. Additionally, the company's ability to quickly adapt to consumer trends and preferences, along with its efficient in-store operations, significantly contributes to its earnings.

Burlington Stores Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Burlington Stores exhibits strong financial performance with notable revenue and profit growth, as well as effective cost management. However, high debt levels and a slightly lower EBITDA margin indicate potential risks and areas for improvement. The company's robust cash flow generation is a positive, but careful management is necessary to sustain growth.

Income Statement

Burlington Stores shows strong growth with a revenue increase from $8.70 billion in 2023 to $10.63 billion in 2025. Gross profit and EBIT margins are healthy at 43.3% and 6.3% in 2025, respectively. The net profit margin improved to 4.7% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability. However, the EBITDA margin is slightly lower at 10.3% compared to previous years, suggesting room for efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is high at 3.92 in 2025, signaling significant leverage. The equity ratio of 15.6% indicates a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets. Return on equity improved to 36.7% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability relative to equity, but the high leverage poses potential risks in volatile market conditions.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains robust at $863 million in 2025, with a stable operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.71. Free cash flow increased significantly from $351 million in 2024 to $863 million in 2025, suggesting improved cash generation capabilities. However, free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.71, indicating a need for careful cash management to sustain growth.

Breakdown
Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement		Total Revenue
10.63B	9.72B	8.70B	9.32B	5.76B
	Gross Profit
4.61B	4.13B	3.53B	3.89B	2.21B
	EBIT
715.01M	548.03M	410.04M	776.57M	-333.64M
	EBITDA
1.09B	851.24M	636.38M	837.12M	-119.47M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
503.64M	339.65M	230.12M	408.84M	-216.50M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
994.70M	925.36M	872.62M	1.09B	1.38B
	Total Assets
8.77B	7.71B	7.27B	7.09B	6.78B
	Total Debt
5.37B	4.80B	4.70B	4.45B	4.64B
	Net Debt
4.38B	3.88B	3.83B	3.36B	3.26B
	Total Liabilities
7.40B	6.71B	6.47B	6.33B	6.32B
	Stockholders Equity
1.37B	996.93M	794.90M	760.42M	464.75M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-28.61M	351.45M	145.28M	480.12M	-54.10M
	Operating Cash Flow
863.38M	868.74M	596.38M	833.16M	219.18M
	Investing Cash Flow
-882.25M	-503.75M	-423.14M	-344.39M	-274.13M
	Financing Cash Flow
88.22M	-318.84M	-391.71M	-777.96M	1.03B

Burlington Stores Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 242.92
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BURL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 242.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 249.32, above the 50-day MA of 239.54, and below the 200-day MA of 259.75, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.39 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BURL.

Burlington Stores Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
URBN	81 Outperform	$6.50B	14.78	19.55%	―	8.38%	52.18%
ROST	75 Outperform	$47.36B	22.76	39.57%	1.06%	2.49%	6.60%
TJX	72 Outperform	$142.93B	30.21	60.36%	1.21%	3.79%	5.23%
GAP	72 Outperform	$8.19B	9.57	29.16%	2.92%	1.07%	28.03%
BURL	65 Neutral	$15.00B	29.26	44.13%	―	8.29%	38.09%
ANF	65 Neutral	$3.62B	7.83	46.98%	―	12.54%	25.47%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.94B	11.29	2.95%	3.87%	2.70%	-24.49%

Burlington Stores Corporate Events

Burlington Stores Approves Amended Incentive Plan at Meeting

On May 20, 2025, Burlington Stores, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where the First Amendment to the 2022 Omnibus Incentive Plan was approved, increasing the shares of common stock by 3,100,000. Additionally, stockholders voted on various proposals, including the election of directors, the ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor, an advisory vote on executive compensation, and the approval of the Amended 2022 Plan, with significant participation from eligible voting shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (BURL) stock is a Buy with a $279.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Burlington Stores stock, see the BURL Stock Forecast page.