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Burlington Stores (BURL)
NYSE:BURL
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Burlington Stores
(NYSE:BURL)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$334.00
▲(9.04% Upside)
Burlington Stores' overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, highlighting growth and margin expansion. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and the high valuation limits upside potential. Competitive pressures and tariff challenges also pose risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent sales growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term revenue expansion.
Store Expansion
Aggressive store expansion suggests confidence in market opportunities and potential for increased market share.
Margin Expansion
Margin expansion demonstrates effective cost management and operational efficiency, enhancing profitability.
Negative Factors
High Debt Levels
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting long-term financial stability.
Competitive Pressure
Lagging comp sales growth compared to peers indicates competitive challenges that may affect market positioning.
Tariff Pressures
Ongoing tariff pressures can impact cost structures and profitability, posing a risk to margin sustainability.
Burlington Stores (BURL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.28B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)809.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.2
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth6.80%
EPS Growth20.46%
CountryUS
Employees17,057
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.80
Shares Outstanding62,927,006
10 Day Avg. Volume895,082
30 Day Avg. Volume809,848
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.71
Price to Book (P/B)13.18
Price to Sales (P/S)1.70
P/FCF Ratio-631.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$335.00Price Target Upside9.37% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)9.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.49B
Burlington Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBurlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded apparel products in the United States. The company provides fashion-focused merchandise, including women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, toys, gifts, and coats, as well as baby, home, and beauty products. As of January 29, 2022, it operated 837 stores under the Burlington Stores name, 2 stores under the Cohoes Fashions name, and 1 store under the MJM Designer Shoes name in 45 states and Puerto Rico. Burlington Stores, Inc. was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey.
How the Company Makes MoneyBurlington Stores generates revenue primarily through the sale of discounted merchandise in its retail stores and online platforms. The company's revenue model is based on offering high-quality products at lower prices than traditional retailers, attracting a wide customer base. Key revenue streams include sales from clothing, footwear, home goods, and seasonal merchandise. Additionally, Burlington benefits from strong supplier relationships, enabling it to acquire products at lower costs, which enhances its profit margins. The company's focus on off-price retailing allows it to remain competitive, especially during economic downturns when consumers prioritize value. Seasonal promotions and sales events also contribute to its revenue, drawing in customers looking for bargains.
Burlington Stores Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might focus future strategic efforts.
Breaks down sales across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might focus future strategic efforts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBurlington Stores Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 25, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Burlington Stores, Inc. demonstrated strong sales growth and margin expansion, exceeding earnings expectations despite challenges from weather and tariffs. However, the company faced significant competitive pressure, with comp sales lagging behind peers. Plans for increased store openings and a robust pipeline suggest optimism for future growth.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Total Sales Increase
Total sales increased by 7% in the third quarter, reaching the high end of the company's guidance.
Earnings Beat Expectations
Despite weather-driven sales challenges, Burlington delivered margin expansion and earnings growth that significantly beat guidance.
Margin Expansion
Updated full-year 2025 EBIT margin guidance reflects an expansion of 60 to 70 basis points, despite tariff pressures.
Store Expansion
Burlington plans to open 110 net new stores in 2026, which is higher than previously discussed, reflecting a strong new store pipeline.
Negative Updates
Weather-Related Sales Impact
Comp store sales for the third quarter increased only 1%, affected by warmer-than-usual weather, which dampened sales in cold weather categories.
Relative Comp Performance
Burlington's 1% comp growth was significantly lower than peers, who reported 6% to 7% growth, raising concerns about competitive positioning.
Tariff Pressures
Despite mitigation strategies, tariffs continued to exert pressure on merchandise margins, impacting overall sales growth potential.
Company Guidance
In the Burlington Stores, Inc. third-quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Michael O'Sullivan and CFO Kristin Wolfe provided detailed guidance on the company's financial outlook. For the fourth quarter, the company maintained its comp store sales guidance of 0% to 2% and total sales increase of 7% to 9%, while raising its adjusted EBIT margin guidance to a 30 to 50 basis point increase. Full-year 2025 expectations include comp store sales growth of 1% to 2%, total sales up by approximately 8%, and EBIT margin expansion of 60 to 70 basis points, despite tariff pressures. Looking ahead to 2026, Burlington plans to open at least 110 net new stores, with total sales projected to grow in the high single digits, and comp store sales expected to rise between flat and 2%. Operating margin is anticipated to remain flat at a 2% comp growth, with potential leverage of 10 to 15 basis points for each point above 2%. The call emphasized Burlington's focus on margin expansion and new store openings while maintaining a cautious approach to sales projections amidst economic uncertainties.Burlington Stores Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Burlington Stores demonstrates solid financial health with consistent revenue growth and improved leverage. While profitability margins are stable, operational efficiency could be enhanced. The company shows strong cash flow generation, but there is potential to improve the conversion of net income into free cash flow.Income Statement
Burlington Stores has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 1.64% and improving gross profit margins. The net profit margin is stable at 5.01%, indicating profitability. However, the EBIT margin has decreased slightly in the TTM, which could suggest rising operational costs.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly in the TTM to 1.09 from a high of 9.98 in 2021, indicating better leverage management. However, the return on equity has decreased to 28.79%, and the equity ratio remains moderate, suggesting room for improvement in asset management.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Free cash flow has grown by 56.26% in the TTM, showing strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.38, but the free cash flow to net income ratio indicates that a significant portion of net income is not converted into free cash flow.72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.19B | 10.63B | 9.72B | 8.69B | 9.31B | 5.76B |
| Gross Profit | 4.79B | 4.60B | 4.13B | 3.52B | 3.88B | 2.20B |
| EBITDA | 1.15B | 1.05B | 847.36M | 650.92M | 1.02B | -110.79M |
| Net Income | 560.53M | 503.64M | 339.65M | 230.12M | 408.84M | -216.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.60B | 8.77B | 7.71B | 7.27B | 7.09B | 6.78B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 584.08M | 994.70M | 925.36M | 872.62M | 1.09B | 1.38B |
| Total Debt | 5.94B | 5.37B | 4.80B | 4.70B | 4.45B | 4.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.07B | 7.40B | 6.71B | 6.47B | 6.33B | 6.32B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.53B | 1.37B | 996.93M | 794.90M | 760.42M | 464.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 481.42M | -28.61M | 351.45M | 145.28M | 480.12M | -54.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 837.03M | 863.38M | 868.74M | 596.38M | 833.16M | 219.18M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.18B | -882.25M | -503.75M | -423.14M | -344.39M | -274.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 73.43M | 88.22M | -318.84M | -391.71M | -777.96M | 1.03B |
Burlington Stores Technical Analysis
Positive
306.31
Price Trends
280.32
Positive
275.97
Positive
263.02
Positive
Market Momentum
9.00
Negative
61.75
Neutral
56.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BURL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 306.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 296.08, above the 50-day MA of 280.32, and above the 200-day MA of 263.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BURL.
Burlington Stores Risk Analysis
Burlington Stores disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Burlington Stores reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Burlington Stores Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | $6.23B | 13.14 | 19.34% | ― | 11.09% | 51.51% | |
80 Outperform | $62.22B | 30.06 | 37.43% | 0.90% | 3.71% | 0.65% | |
79 Outperform | $174.77B | 34.77 | 58.40% | 1.07% | 4.53% | 6.52% | |
76 Outperform | $9.94B | 11.97 | 25.10% | 2.45% | 0.29% | 3.65% | |
74 Outperform | $4.31B | 21.96 | 12.36% | 2.09% | -1.15% | -0.98% | |
68 Neutral | $19.28B | 35.18 | 41.92% | ― | 6.80% | 20.46% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BURL
Burlington Stores
306.31
16.74
5.78%
AEO
American Eagle
25.44
9.99
64.69%
GAP
Gap Inc
26.73
3.98
17.49%
ROST
Ross Stores
192.36
44.85
30.40%
TJX
TJX Companies
157.38
37.02
30.76%
URBN
Urban Outfitters
69.48
9.04
14.96%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.