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Burlington Stores
(NYSE:BURL)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$411.00
▲(17.44% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/05/26
BURL scores well primarily due to strong technical uptrend and a bullish earnings update (raised FY2026 guidance alongside strong Q1 sales, margin, and EPS performance). Financial performance is solid but held back by meaningful leverage and some cash-flow volatility. The main offsetting factor is valuation, with a high P/E that increases sensitivity to any execution or macro slowdown.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Margin Recovery
Burlington has delivered a durable multi-year recovery in scale and profitability: revenues expanded materially and margins meaningfully improved versus FY2023. This reflects sustainable merchandising discipline, better allocation and cost control that support long‑term cash generation across retail cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Material net leverage constrains financial flexibility and amplifies downside in a revenue slowdown. Although equity has rebuilt from earlier years, sizable debt makes capital allocation and interest/serviceability more sensitive to retail cyclicality and could limit maneuverability during macro shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Margin Recovery
Burlington has delivered a durable multi-year recovery in scale and profitability: revenues expanded materially and margins meaningfully improved versus FY2023. This reflects sustainable merchandising discipline, better allocation and cost control that support long‑term cash generation across retail cycles.
Read all positive factors
Burlington Stores Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might focus future strategic efforts.
Breaks down sales across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving growth and profitability, and where the company might focus future strategic efforts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyBurlington Stores (BURL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$23.19B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)629.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)37.8
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth10.60%
EPS Growth19.47%
CountryUS
Employees83,309
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.75
Shares Outstanding62,942,207
10 Day Avg. Volume648,521
30 Day Avg. Volume629,817
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.54
Price to Book (P/B)10.50
Price to Sales (P/S)1.64
P/FCF Ratio110.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$380.85Price Target Upside8.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)11.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.83B
Burlington Stores Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a prominent retail chain across the United States, offering a diverse selection of branded apparel and other consumer products. Its merchandise is heavily focused on current fashion trends, providing items such ...
How the Company Makes Money
Burlington primarily makes money by buying branded merchandise from manufacturers, brands, and other suppliers—often opportunistically (e.g., excess inventory, canceled orders, closeouts, or seasonal overages)—and reselling it through its stores a...
Burlington Stores Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong top-line growth (Q1 total sales +14%, comps +6%) and notable margin and EPS outperformance (Q1 EPS +26%, operating margin +20 bps), supported by supply chain productivity, improved allocation/localization, accelerated store growth and healthy liquidity. Management raised full-year sales and EPS guidance and signaled continued store productivity upside and rollout of Store Experience 2.0. Key risks discussed include higher freight/fuel costs, inventory build (11% comp inventory increase), regional dispersion, uncertainty around tariff refunds, and macro pressures (higher gas prices, geopolitical risk). Overall, the positive operational execution, margin expansion and upgraded guidance materially outweigh the manageable risks discussed.Positive Updates
Strong Earnings Growth
Adjusted EPS of $2.10 in Q1, up 26% year-over-year; marks the 14th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth and demonstrates consistent earnings flow-through from sales.
Negative Updates
Rising Inventories and Inventory Mix Risk
Comparable store inventories were up 11% versus Q1 FY25; while reserve inventory improved (41% vs 48%), the inventory build warrants monitoring for potential markdown risk if trends change.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Earnings Growth
Adjusted EPS of $2.10 in Q1, up 26% year-over-year; marks the 14th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth and demonstrates consistent earnings flow-through from sales.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Burlington raised its fiscal 2026 outlook, now targeting total sales growth of 9%–11% (vs. prior 8%–10%) with full‑year comp store sales of +2%–4%, adjusted EPS of $11.45–$11.80 (+13%–16% YoY) and adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 10–30 bps; the company now expects 135 gross / 115 net new stores (majority in H1) and roughly $875M of capex (net of landlord allowances). For Q2 it guides comps +1%–3%, total sales +10%–12%, operating margin expansion of 30–60 bps and adjusted EPS $2.05–$2.20 (vs $1.72 LY, implying ~19%–28% EPS growth), excluding ~$3M of bankruptcy‑acquired lease costs (vs $11M LY). The back half outlook is unchanged (comps +1%–3%, total sales +8%–10%, adj EBIT margin +10–30 bps, EPS $7.30–$7.50). Q1 trends that drove the lift included 14% total sales, 6% comp, EPS +26%, gross margin 44.1% (+30 bps), comparable inventories +11% with reserve inventory 41% (vs 48% a year ago), liquidity of ~$1.7B (cash $747M, ABL availability $942M, no outstanding ABL borrowings), $81M repurchased in Q1 with $304M remaining on the buyback, 1,242 stores at quarter end and sales/selling sqft ≈ $350 (vs ~$220 in 2019); the company remains on track to exceed 1,500 stores by end‑2028.Burlington Stores Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 11.92B | 11.57B | 10.63B | 9.73B | 8.70B | 9.32B |
| Gross Profit | 5.24B | 5.08B | 4.61B | 4.14B | 3.53B | 3.89B |
| EBITDA | 1.33B | 1.31B | 1.09B | 851.24M | 644.38M | 862.02M |
| Net Income | 624.07M | 610.15M | 503.64M | 339.65M | 230.12M | 408.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.78B | 9.92B | 8.77B | 7.71B | 7.27B | 7.09B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 747.36M | 1.23B | 994.70M | 925.36M | 872.62M | 1.09B |
| Total Debt | 5.87B | 6.01B | 5.37B | 4.80B | 4.70B | 4.45B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.94B | 8.11B | 7.40B | 6.71B | 6.47B | 6.33B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.84B | 1.81B | 1.37B | 996.93M | 794.90M | 760.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 436.74M | 171.59M | -28.61M | 351.45M | 145.28M | 480.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.32B | 1.23B | 863.38M | 868.74M | 596.38M | 833.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -932.03M | -1.06B | -882.25M | -503.75M | -423.14M | -344.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -13.46M | 61.49M | 88.22M | -318.84M | -391.71M | -777.96M |
Burlington Stores Technical Analysis
Positive
349.97
Price Trends
337.31
Positive
328.37
Positive
308.43
Positive
Market Momentum
10.81
Negative
63.87
Neutral
64.91
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BURL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 349.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 357.21, above the 50-day MA of 337.31, and above the 200-day MA of 308.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 10.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.91 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BURL.
Burlington Stores Risk Analysis
Burlington Stores disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Burlington Stores reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Burlington Stores Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $173.81B | 30.49 | 59.66% | 1.14% | 8.06% | 21.36% | |
78 Outperform | $80.54B | 34.77 | 38.42% | 0.71% | 11.86% | 13.46% | |
76 Outperform | $6.35B | 14.02 | 17.64% | ― | 11.23% | 8.96% | |
73 Outperform | $23.19B | 37.79 | 37.72% | ― | 10.60% | 19.47% | |
69 Neutral | $7.23B | 7.76 | 26.47% | 3.58% | 1.58% | 11.13% | |
62 Neutral | $2.88B | 10.41 | 17.24% | 2.94% | 6.22% | 65.05% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BURL
Burlington Stores
368.96
98.52
36.43%
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255.23
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TJX
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161.36
30.56
23.36%
URBN
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76.92
-0.90
-1.16%
Burlington Stores Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Burlington Stores Announces Leadership Transition in HR Department
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
On July 31, 2026, Burlington Stores, Inc. announced that Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer Matthew Pasch will depart the company effective September 1, 2026, with severance benefits and pro-rata continued vesting of his 20...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Burlington Stores Stockholders Confirm Directors and Annual Say-On-Pay
Positive
May 26, 2026
Burlington Stores, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 19, 2026, with approximately 95% of eligible shares represented, establishing a strong quorum and signaling high investor engagement. At the meeting, stockholders elected seven...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.