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Roblox (RBLX)
NYSE:RBLX
US Market

Roblox (RBLX) AI Stock Analysis

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Roblox

(NYSE:RBLX)

Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$104.00
▲(0.40%Upside)
Roblox's strong revenue growth and positive cash flow are significant strengths, supporting its operational and strategic goals. Technical indicators are favorable, indicating potential stock price appreciation. However, profitability issues and valuation concerns present challenges. The positive earnings call sentiment and strategic focus on user engagement and platform quality contribute positively to the score.
Positive Factors
Growth Potential
Roblox is seen as the most compelling growth opportunity in the video game sector due to its large and expanding user base and potential to unlock additional profit drivers.
Monetization Opportunities
Roblox is taking share of video game user time and spend, with significant monetization opportunities through new revenue streams in advertising and commerce.
User Engagement
Grow A Garden has achieved an historic level of player engagement, reaching 20M concurrent players each weekend.
Negative Factors
Advertising Revenue
Ad revenues for Roblox won’t be material.
Investor Expectations
The viral success of 'Grow A Garden' is expected to boost performance, making investor expectations appear too conservative.
Search & Discovery
Roblox's Search & Discovery has significant potential to improve, enhancing consumer spending through refined predictive models.

Roblox (RBLX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Roblox Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRoblox Corporation develops and operates an online entertainment platform. The company offers Roblox Studio, a free toolset that allows developers and creators to build, publish, and operate 3D experiences, and other content; Roblox Client, an application that allows users to explore 3D digital world; Roblox Education for learning experiences; and Roblox Cloud, which provides services and infrastructure that power the human co-experience platform. It serves customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Europe, China, the Asia-Pacific, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyRoblox primarily generates revenue through the sale of its virtual currency known as Robux, which users purchase with real money. Robux is used to buy in-game items, accessories, and experiences within the Roblox platform. A significant portion of Roblox's revenue also comes from its Developer Exchange Program, where developers can earn real-world currency by creating popular games and experiences that attract more users. Additional revenue streams include advertising partnerships and licensing deals that expand the reach and monetization potential of the platform. Roblox's business model is heavily reliant on user engagement and the continuous influx of new content from its developer community.

Roblox Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Daily Active Users
Total Daily Active Users
Monitors the number of users engaging with Roblox daily, indicating the platform's popularity, user retention, and potential for monetization.
Chart InsightsRoblox's Total Daily Active Users have surged, reaching 97.8 million by Q1 2025, a 26% year-on-year increase. This growth is fueled by significant user expansion in regions like Japan and India. The company has exceeded its revenue and bookings guidance, reflecting strong engagement and strategic investments in AI and platform quality. Despite slower growth in Europe and macroeconomic concerns, Roblox's focus on operational efficiency and creator success positions it well for continued expansion, with creator earnings expected to surpass $1 billion this year.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Roblox Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 54.50%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with significant revenue, bookings, and cash flow growth. There was notable expansion in user engagement and creator earnings. Challenges included slower growth in Europe due to regional issues and investor concerns about potential macroeconomic impacts. However, the positive aspects of growth and innovation significantly outweigh the challenges faced.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Bookings Growth
Q1 2025 revenue was $1.035 billion, up 29% year-on-year, surpassing guidance. Bookings were $1.207 billion, up 31% year-on-year, also ahead of guidance.
Strong Growth in Daily Active Users
Q1 DAUs reached 97.8 million, up 26% year-on-year. Notable regional growth includes Japan at 48% and India at 77%.
Significant Increase in Cash Flow
Cash from operations was $443 million, up 86% year-on-year, and free cash flow was $426 million, up 123%.
Creator Earnings Surge
Developer exchange (DevEx) was up 39% year-on-year, with creators on track to earn over $1 billion this year.
Expansion in Genre and Developer Success
Genres like RPG, sports, and battle saw 69% growth. More developers, including 100 developers earning over $1 million in the past 12 months.
Advancements in AI and Safety
AI-driven moderation has improved efficiency and quality. New AI voice classifier model is open source, contributing to industry-wide safety efforts.
Negative Updates
Slower Growth in Europe
DAUs and hours in Europe grew more slowly due to Turkey being offline, although bookings growth was consistent with other regions.
Concerns About Macro Environment
Investors expressed concern about potential macroeconomic downturns and how they might affect Roblox's performance.
Company Guidance
In the Q1 2025 earnings call, Roblox reported strong performance, surpassing its previous guidance and 2023 Investor Day goals. The company achieved a Q1 revenue of $1.035 billion, marking a 29% year-on-year increase, exceeding the guidance of $990 million to $1.015 billion. Bookings reached $1.207 billion, up 31% year-on-year, and surpassed the guidance range of $1.125 billion to $1.15 billion. Roblox's Daily Active Users (DAUs) were 97.8 million, a 26% increase from the previous year. Engagement hours grew to 21.7 billion, up 30% year-on-year. Cash from operations was $443 million, an 86% increase, while free cash flow rose by 123% to $426 million. Creator earnings (DevEx) increased by 39% to $281 million, contributing to the expectation of over $1 billion in creator earnings for the year. The company highlighted significant growth across various regions and age demographics, with notable DAU increases in Japan (48%) and India (77%). Additionally, Roblox emphasized its focus on operational efficiency and strategic investments, particularly in AI-driven moderation and search and discovery algorithms, to enhance platform quality and support creator success.

Roblox Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Roblox demonstrates strong revenue growth and effective cash flow management, crucial for its ongoing operations and expansion. However, profitability issues and occasional negative equity signal potential risks, indicating a need for better margin control and balance sheet stabilization.
Income Statement
70
Positive
Roblox's revenue has shown consistent growth, with a noticeable increase from 2020 to TTM 2025. Despite this growth, the company is facing profitability challenges, with negative net income and EBIT margins across periods. The gross profit margin remains healthy, indicating good control over direct costs.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects strong liquidity with significant cash and short-term investments. However, the equity ratio is low, and the company has been operating with negative stockholders' equity in some periods, which raises concerns about financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity values.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Operating cash flow has been positive and growing, indicating effective cash generation from operations. Free cash flow is also positive, showing good capital expenditure management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, reflecting healthy cash conversion.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.84B3.60B2.80B2.23B1.92B923.88M
Gross Profit2.99B2.80B2.15B1.68B1.42B683.99M
EBITDA-614.55M-670.25M-910.95M-761.86M-421.40M-220.54M
Net Income-879.84M-935.38M-1.15B-924.37M-491.65M-253.25M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.45B7.18B6.17B5.38B4.56B1.85B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.74B2.41B2.19B2.98B3.00B893.94M
Total Debt1.81B1.81B1.76B1.56B1.18B344.83M
Total Liabilities7.16B6.97B6.10B5.07B3.97B2.08B
Stockholders Equity310.69M221.45M76.29M306.03M584.82M-252.39M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow876.95M642.67M124.01M-58.37M557.98M411.22M
Operating Cash Flow1.03B822.32M458.18M369.30M659.11M524.34M
Investing Cash Flow-808.78M-852.07M-2.83B-441.05M-146.82M-97.03M
Financing Cash Flow74.20M65.89M67.18M43.64M1.60B164.97M

Roblox Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price103.59
Price Trends
50DMA
86.24
Positive
100DMA
72.96
Positive
200DMA
63.36
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
5.13
Positive
RSI
66.95
Neutral
STOCH
35.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RBLX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 103.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 100.27, above the 50-day MA of 86.24, and above the 200-day MA of 63.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RBLX.

Roblox Risk Analysis

Roblox disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Roblox reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Roblox Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TMTME
76
Outperform
$29.34B22.7214.37%0.92%4.59%83.27%
71
Outperform
$8.98B-4.29%21.11%87.93%
EAEA
70
Outperform
$39.04B36.5916.13%0.49%-0.81%-9.28%
66
Neutral
¥373.55B13.582.32%2.51%5.41%-17.67%
58
Neutral
$70.26B-460.30%30.24%27.61%
57
Neutral
$42.60B-114.76%5.31%-15.57%
54
Neutral
$1.86B13.23-220.61%8.06%1.64%-32.31%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RBLX
Roblox
103.59
63.77
160.15%
EA
Electronic Arts
155.37
16.44
11.83%
TTWO
Take-Two
242.53
90.53
59.56%
BILI
Bilibili
20.88
4.44
27.01%
TME
Tencent Music Entertainment Group
19.46
5.13
35.80%
PLTK
Playtika Holding
4.96
-1.98
-28.53%

Roblox Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Roblox CFO Michael Guthrie Resigns Amid Management Changes
Negative
Jul 1, 2025

On June 30, 2025, Roblox Corporation announced the resignation of its Chief Financial Officer, Michael Guthrie, effective the same day. As part of his departure, the company and Guthrie agreed to amend his Separation and Transition Agreement, affecting the vesting of his performance-based restricted stock units (RSUs). Specifically, certain RSUs from awards granted in 2023 and 2024 will vest based on company performance, with remaining RSUs being canceled. This adjustment reflects the company’s ongoing management transitions and could impact its financial planning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (RBLX) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Roblox stock, see the RBLX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Roblox Appoints Naveen Chopra as New CFO
Positive
Jun 10, 2025

Roblox Corporation announced the appointment of Naveen Chopra as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective June 30, 2025. Chopra, with extensive experience in financial and strategic leadership from companies like Paramount and Amazon, will oversee Roblox’s financial operations. This strategic move is expected to bolster Roblox’s growth and innovation in the gaming and entertainment sectors, as Chopra’s background aligns with the company’s vision of connecting and empowering a global audience. Michael Guthrie, the outgoing CFO, will remain until June 30, 2025, to ensure a smooth transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (RBLX) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Roblox stock, see the RBLX Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Roblox Reincorporates to Nevada After Stockholder Meeting
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

On May 29, 2025, Roblox Corporation held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where key decisions were made including the election of directors, approval of executive compensation, and ratification of Deloitte & Touche LLP as the accounting firm. Additionally, the stockholders approved the company’s reincorporation from Delaware to Nevada, effective May 30, 2025. This reincorporation did not alter the company’s business operations, management, or financial standing but did result in changes to stockholder rights and governance under Nevada law.

The most recent analyst rating on (RBLX) stock is a Buy with a $46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Roblox stock, see the RBLX Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Roblox Reports Strong Q1 2025 Financial Growth
Positive
May 1, 2025

Roblox Corporation reported substantial year-over-year growth in its first quarter of 2025, with revenue increasing by 29% and bookings by 31%. The company exceeded its guidance across key metrics, driven by growth initiatives in platform monetization and creator earnings. Roblox’s financial results highlight a strong performance in all regions, with record levels of cash flow from operations and free cash flow. The company also provided guidance for the second quarter and full year 2025, projecting continued growth in revenue and bookings despite expected net losses. The announcement underscores Roblox’s strategic focus on enhancing its virtual economy and operational efficiencies, which are expected to benefit stakeholders, including developers and creators.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025