Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.92B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.51M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.20
• Revenue Growth: 26.77%
• EPS Growth: 24.18%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,294
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 47
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.17
• Shares Outstanding: 96,371,640
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,493,306
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,509,306
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.51
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -9.13
• 1Y Price Target: $85.86
• Price Target Upside: 183.27% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $30.00 ▼(-1.02% Downside)

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's overall stock score reflects strong revenue growth and clinical progress, as highlighted in the earnings call. However, significant profitability challenges and valuation concerns weigh heavily on the score. Technical indicators suggest neutral momentum, providing limited support to the stock's outlook.

Positive Factors

Strong Revenue Growth

Sustained revenue growth indicates robust demand for Ultragenyx's therapies, supporting long-term business expansion and market penetration.

Breakthrough Therapy Designation

The Breakthrough Therapy designation accelerates GTX-102's development, potentially enhancing Ultragenyx's competitive position in rare disease treatments.

Successful Commercialization Efforts

Effective commercialization of products like Crysvita demonstrates Ultragenyx's capability to expand its market presence and drive revenue growth.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing profitability challenges, reflected by significant net losses, may hinder Ultragenyx's ability to reinvest in R&D and sustain long-term growth.

Increased Cash Usage

High cash burn rates could strain financial resources, limiting Ultragenyx's flexibility to fund new projects and manage operational needs.

BLA Submission Delay

Delays in BLA submissions can postpone product launches, affecting revenue timelines and potentially impacting competitive positioning.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative therapies for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Established in 2010, the company operates primarily in the biotechnology sector and specializes in the research, development, and commercialization of treatments that address unmet medical needs for patients suffering from these conditions. Ultragenyx's core products include enzyme replacement therapies and other novel therapeutics targeting specific genetic disorders, with a portfolio that includes therapies like Crysvita and Mepsevii.

How the Company Makes Money

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical generates revenue primarily through the sale of its approved therapies and products. Key revenue streams include product sales from its marketed drugs, particularly those addressing rare diseases, which are often priced at a premium due to their specialized nature and the significant investment in research and development required to bring them to market. The company also engages in partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, which can include co-development agreements and licensing arrangements that provide additional revenue through upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on future sales. Furthermore, Ultragenyx may benefit from government incentives for orphan drugs, including tax credits and extended market exclusivity, which can contribute to its financial performance.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical shows modest revenue growth but faces significant profitability challenges with negative net profit and EBIT margins. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, yet ongoing losses impact shareholder value. Cash flow management shows slight improvement, but operational cash flow remains negative.

Income Statement

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical has shown modest revenue growth with a TTM increase of 3.3%. However, the company is facing significant profitability challenges, with negative net profit and EBIT margins indicating ongoing losses. The gross profit margin remains strong at over 83%, suggesting efficient cost management in production, but overall profitability is hindered by high operating expenses.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.27, indicating manageable leverage. However, the negative return on equity highlights ongoing losses impacting shareholder value. The equity ratio is relatively stable, suggesting a solid asset base, but the overall financial health is affected by persistent losses.

Cash Flow

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's cash flow statement shows a slight improvement in free cash flow growth, but operating cash flow remains negative, indicating cash burn. The free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, suggesting some efficiency in cash management despite losses. However, the negative operating cash flow to net income ratio highlights ongoing operational challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	610.16M	560.23M	434.25M	363.33M	351.41M	271.03M
Gross Profit	511.96M	483.50M	389.04M	335.01M	335.40M	264.90M
EBITDA	-435.33M	-469.00M	-516.45M	-640.51M	-410.32M	-139.81M
Net Income	-532.93M	-569.18M	-606.64M	-707.42M	-454.02M	-186.57M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.31B	1.50B	1.49B	1.55B	1.52B	1.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	496.62M	610.02M	577.21M	896.73M	999.13M	1.21B
Total Debt	882.91M	910.01M	43.17M	31.59M	41.97M	48.23M
Total Liabilities	1.15B	1.24B	1.22B	1.19B	599.84M	605.18M
Stockholders Equity	151.29M	255.30M	275.41M	352.49M	922.56M	1.15B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-427.30M	-421.68M	-521.57M	-526.59M	-411.79M	-176.13M
Operating Cash Flow	-421.25M	-414.19M	-474.81M	-380.46M	-338.69M	-132.22M
Investing Cash Flow	18.30M	-17.77M	168.00M	-291.65M	-195.37M	-179.12M
Financing Cash Flow	98.17M	399.24M	388.14M	501.21M	118.55M	600.27M

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 30.31
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RARE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.44, above the 50-day MA of 29.90, and below the 200-day MA of 37.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RARE.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SWTX	61 Neutral		―		―	730.42%	31.63%
PTCT	58 Neutral	$4.85B	8.76	33.08%	―	96.00%	―
ZLAB	52 Neutral	$3.73B	―	-28.39%	―	32.56%	33.33%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.92B	-0.36	-43.38%	2.24%	22.38%	-2.16%
RARE	51 Neutral	$2.92B	―	-182.60%	―	26.77%	24.18%
ACLX	51 Neutral	$4.23B	―	-42.75%	―	-60.63%	-216.87%
CRSP	49 Neutral	$5.08B	―	-25.34%	―	-81.18%	-69.19%

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Corporate Events

Ultragenyx Reports Positive Phase 3 Gene Therapy Results

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical announced positive long-term results from its Phase 3 study of DTX401 AAV gene therapy for glycogen storage disease type Ia, presented at the International Congress of Inborn Errors of Metabolism 2025 in Kyoto, Japan. The study showed significant reductions in cornstarch intake and improved glycemic control, with participants reporting enhanced quality of life and the therapy demonstrating an acceptable safety profile. These findings underscore the potential of DTX401 to transform treatment for GSDIa, reinforcing Ultragenyx’s position in the rare disease market and offering promising implications for patients and stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (RARE) stock is a Buy with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical stock, see the RARE Stock Forecast page.