Qifu Technology (QFIN)
NASDAQ:QFIN
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Qifu Technology
(NASDAQ:QFIN)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$15.00
▲(6.16% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/02/26
The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance (profitability plus standout cash conversion) and very attractive valuation (ultra-low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by a cautious earnings outlook with sharply lower guided near-term profits and mixed technicals that still reflect longer-term downtrend pressure.
Positive Factors
Platform scale & partnerships
Large institutional partnerships and a 63M cumulative user base create durable distribution and network effects for Qifu’s credit-tech services. This breadth supports recurring service fees, diversified funding relationships and resilience to single-partner shocks, underpinning sustainable origination volumes over months.
Negative Factors
Higher leverage
A measurable uptick in leverage raises structural financial risk if funding tightens. Even moderate absolute leverage (~2.7x) limits buffer for credit or liquidity shocks, increases sensitivity to higher funding costs, and constrains capital allocation flexibility during periods of regulatory or market stress over the coming months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Platform scale & partnerships
Large institutional partnerships and a 63M cumulative user base create durable distribution and network effects for Qifu’s credit-tech services. This breadth supports recurring service fees, diversified funding relationships and resilience to single-partner shocks, underpinning sustainable origination volumes over months.
Read all positive factors
Qifu Technology (QFIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.64B
Dividend Yield7.3%
Average Volume (3M)1.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.2
Beta (1Y)1.32
Revenue Growth11.94%
EPS Growth5.49%
CountryUS
Employees3,527
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)52.24
Shares Outstanding141,509,640
10 Day Avg. Volume1,165,716
30 Day Avg. Volume1,360,755
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.48
P/FCF Ratio0.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.45
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.99
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.37Price Target Upside29.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)27.87
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.72B
Qifu Technology Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Qifu Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates credit-tech platform under the 360 Jietiao brand in the People's Republic of China. The company provides credit-driven services that matches borrowers with financial institutions to c...
How the Company Makes Money
Qifu Technology makes money primarily by providing credit-tech services to financial institution partners (e.g., banks and other licensed financial institutions) that fund loans to consumers sourced through Qifu’s platform. Its revenue model gener...
Qifu Technology Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call reflects a mixed but cautious outlook: the company demonstrated resilience at scale (platform reach, full-year loan volume stability, strong Technology Solutions growth, improved funding metrics and material shareholder returns). However, there are material near-term headwinds — steep Q4 profit declines, significant Q4 revenue and loan-volume contractions, elevated delinquency metrics in legacy portfolios, lower ICE/platform revenues, declining liquidity and a weak Q1 2026 earnings outlook (c. 51%–53% y/y decline). Management’s proactive risk tightening, portfolio optimization and pivot to capital-light operations are positive actions, but near-term financial and regulatory pressures dominate the tone.Positive Updates
Full-Year Loan Volume Stability
Total loan facilitation and origination volume for full-year 2025 reached RMB 327.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, indicating resilience despite a challenging industry backdrop.
Negative Updates
Q4 Loan Volume Contraction
Total loan facilitation and origination volume on the platform decreased 21.8% year-over-year in Q4 2025 to RMB 70.3 billion, reflecting tightened market liquidity following regulatory changes.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Loan Volume Stability
Total loan facilitation and origination volume for full-year 2025 reached RMB 327.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, indicating resilience despite a challenging industry backdrop.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided Q1 2026 non‑GAAP net income to RMB 900–950 million (a 51–53% YoY decline) and said it aims to maintain an operational take‑rate of about 3% if the regulatory backdrop stabilizes, while warning funding costs and ABS issuance could be volatile; management noted recent funding wins (ABS issuance up 40.8% YoY to RMB 21.4 billion in 2025 with average issuance cost down 72 bps YoY, and overall funding cost fell another 20 bps from Q3), but average loan pricing/IRR has declined (~140–150 bps in Q4), so it will diversify funding channels and favor capital‑light mix (capital‑light was ~44% of 2025 loan volume and is expected to rise). They emphasized continued focus on higher‑quality users and risk control—KPIs cited include Q4 loan volume RMB 70.3 billion (‑21.8% YoY) and FY volume RMB 327.1 billion (+1.6%), Q4 non‑GAAP net income RMB 1.07 billion (‑45.7% YoY) and Q4 EPADS RMB 8.23 (FY EPADS RMB 46.8, +10.4% YoY), C‑M2 0.97% in Q4 then down 8.2% MoM in Jan with FPD30 for new loans down ~18% sequentially and FPD7 improving ~10% in January, Q4 30‑day collection rate 84.1% (90‑day delinquency 2.71%, D1 6.1%), Q4 new provisions CNY 1.92 billion with provision coverage ~481%, leverage ~2.7x, cash from operations ~CNY 3.15 billion and cash & short‑term investments ~CNY 10.72 billion; capital returns include USD 200M dividends and USD 680M buybacks in 2025 (98% of 2024 GAAP net income) and a declared H2 2025 dividend of USD 0.78 per ADS.Qifu Technology Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 18.68B | 17.17B | 16.29B | 16.55B | 16.64B |
| Gross Profit | 15.23B | 10.60B | 10.45B | 11.70B | 12.84B |
| EBITDA | 7.18B | 8.08B | 7.98B | 8.92B | 9.93B |
| Net Income | 5.80B | 6.26B | 4.29B | 4.02B | 5.78B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 56.99B | 48.13B | 45.82B | 40.34B | 33.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.40B | 7.85B | 4.19B | 7.22B | 6.12B |
| Total Debt | 3.81B | 1.40B | 827.73M | 180.70M | 423.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 32.81B | 23.89B | 23.81B | 21.41B | 18.29B |
| Stockholders Equity | 24.17B | 24.19B | 21.94B | 18.85B | 15.20B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.84B | 9.19B | 7.03B | 5.90B | 5.76B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 11.08B | 9.34B | 7.12B | 5.92B | 5.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.08B | -7.99B | -11.15B | -7.36B | -6.06B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.78B | -2.11B | 1.07B | 3.20B | 2.26B |
Qifu Technology Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.13
Price Trends
14.24
Negative
16.22
Negative
23.14
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
54.87
Neutral
80.49
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For QFIN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.33, below the 50-day MA of 14.24, and below the 200-day MA of 23.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for QFIN.
Qifu Technology Risk Analysis
Qifu Technology disclosed 88 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Qifu Technology reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Qifu Technology Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $1.26B | 5.42 | 15.80% | 5.20% | 4.05% | 8.52% | |
73 Outperform | $1.64B | 2.17 | 24.99% | 7.30% | 11.94% | 5.49% | |
72 Outperform | $350.08M | 4.55 | 14.37% | 8.86% | -7.69% | 48.72% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | $174.68M | 28.48 | 0.54% | 10.37% | -1.41% | -98.13% | |
| ― | $2.33B | -3.80 | 0.96% | ― | ― | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
QFIN
Qifu Technology
13.15
-28.65
-68.54%
YRD
Yiren Digital
2.00
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5.17
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LX
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2.09
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LU
Lufax Holding
1.95
-0.91
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.