Provident Financial Holdings, Inc (PROV)
NASDAQ:PROV
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Provident Financial Holdings
(NASDAQ:PROV)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$18.50
â–²(14.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/10/26
The score is driven primarily by moderate financial performance (soft TTM revenue/margin trends and modest ROE, offset by solid cash conversion and improving leverage). Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD. Valuation is reasonable but not cheap, while the latest earnings call was broadly constructive on credit quality and margin/funding dynamics despite near-term loan growth headwinds.
Positive Factors
Asset quality
Very low nonperforming assets and absence of early delinquencies indicate durable credit quality, reducing expected credit losses and provisioning volatility. For a community bank, sustained low NPAs supports steady earnings, capital preservation, and continued lending capacity over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Modest returns
Low ROE and materially compressed margins versus prior years signal limited profitability power relative to peers. Persistently modest returns constrain retained earnings growth and capital accumulation, limiting ability to scale lending, absorb shocks, or sustainably lift dividend/share repurchase levels over time.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Asset quality
Very low nonperforming assets and absence of early delinquencies indicate durable credit quality, reducing expected credit losses and provisioning volatility. For a community bank, sustained low NPAs supports steady earnings, capital preservation, and continued lending capacity over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$106.13M
Dividend Yield3.5%
Average Volume (3M)8.84K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.9
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth-1.84%
EPS Growth-3.36%
CountryUS
Employees94
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.94
Shares Outstanding6,253,691
10 Day Avg. Volume9,911
30 Day Avg. Volume8,842
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.36
Price to Book (P/B)0.81
Price to Sales (P/S)1.73
P/FCF Ratio12.77
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.97
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$40.50M
Provident Financial Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) is a financial services company primarily engaged in the banking sector. The company operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Provident Savings Bank, which offers a range of financial products and ser...
How the Company Makes Money
Provident Financial Holdings primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by earning interest income on loans and other interest-earning assets and paying interest on deposits and other funding sources, with the difference recorded as net ...
Provident Financial Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted several positive operational and financial trends — stronger loan originations, improved asset quality, slightly higher net interest margin, lower funding costs, and solid capital positions with ongoing shareholder returns. These positives were partially offset by elevated loan payoffs that reduced quarter-end loan balances and pressured NIM through accelerated deferred cost amortization, a modest rise in operating expenses (including a settlement), and some uncertainty around loan repricing in June 2026 that could affect growth. On balance, the company appears fundamentally stable with opportunities for margin improvement, but near-term growth is subject to payoff and repricing dynamics.Positive Updates
Strong Increase in Loan Originations
Originations of loans held for investment were $42.1M in the quarter, a 42% increase from $29.6M in the prior sequential quarter, and loan pipelines are moderately higher suggesting March 2026 originations within the recent range of $28M–$42M.
Negative Updates
High Loan Payoffs Offsetting Originations
Loan principal payments and payoffs were $46.7M, up 35% from $34.5M in the prior quarter, which more than offset higher originations and resulted in loans held for investment declining by approximately $4.1M for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Increase in Loan Originations
Originations of loans held for investment were $42.1M in the quarter, a 42% increase from $29.6M in the prior sequential quarter, and loan pipelines are moderately higher suggesting March 2026 originations within the recent range of $28M–$42M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that loan origination momentum continued—$42.1M originated in the December quarter (up 42% vs. $29.6M sequentially) but was offset by $46.7M of principal payments/payoffs (up 35% vs. $34.5M), leaving loans held for investment down about $4.1M; pipelines suggest March quarter originations likely within the recent $28M–$42M range. Asset quality remains strong with nonperforming assets of $990k (8 bps of total assets, down from $1.9M), no early-stage delinquencies, a $158k recovery to credit losses, and an allowance for credit losses to gross loans HFI of 55 bps (vs. 56 bps); CRE office exposure is $36.7M (3.5% of loans HFI) and only six CRE loans totaling $2.8M mature for the remainder of fiscal 2026. Margin and funding dynamics point to upside: net interest margin rose 3 bps to 3.03%, deposit cost fell to 1.32% (down 2 bps), borrowing cost fell 20 bps to 4.39%, though net deferred loan cost amortization reduced NIM by ~5 bps; loans originated carried a 6.15% weighted average rate vs. 5.22% for the portfolio, ~ $112.2M of loans reprice in March to an expected 6.85% (14 bps lower) and ~$125.2M reprice in June to an expected 6.49% (38 bps higher), while ~$109M and ~$79.5M of wholesale funding (ex-overnight) mature in March and June at weighted rates of 4.12% and 4.15% respectively—management expects to reprice these lower and sees an opportunity for NIM expansion in March. Operating and capital guidance: FTEs 163, operating expenses $7.9M in the quarter (including a $214k pre‑litigation settlement) with an expected run rate of ~$7.6M–$7.7M/quarter, and capital returns continuing (Dec quarter dividends $906k and buybacks ~ $1.5M, plus ~$96k repurchased in December), representing a 170% distribution of the December quarter’s net income.Provident Financial Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 59.38M | 60.16M | 58.67M | 50.07M | 39.45M | 39.77M |
| Gross Profit | 39.84M | 39.67M | 38.93M | 40.69M | 38.77M | 35.92M |
| EBITDA | 10.75M | 12.36M | 13.54M | 15.60M | 17.71M | 16.45M |
| Net Income | 6.10M | 6.25M | 7.35M | 8.59M | 9.09M | 7.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.22B | 1.25B | 1.27B | 1.33B | 1.19B | 1.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 57.13M | 53.16M | 53.23M | 68.00M | 26.09M | 73.86M |
| Total Debt | 186.31M | 213.07M | 238.50M | 235.01M | 85.00M | 100.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.09B | 1.12B | 1.14B | 1.20B | 1.06B | 1.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 126.57M | 128.54M | 129.94M | 129.69M | 128.65M | 127.28M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.63M | 8.15M | 4.10M | 15.58M | 11.63M | 11.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.09M | 8.69M | 5.68M | 16.32M | 11.79M | 11.57M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 46.98M | 26.46M | 45.06M | -109.90M | -51.75M | -55.87M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -48.85M | -33.43M | -65.22M | 136.01M | -6.90M | -1.47M |
Provident Financial Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
16.10
Price Trends
16.57
Positive
16.23
Positive
15.70
Positive
Market Momentum
0.09
Positive
59.51
Neutral
25.58
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PROV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.95, below the 50-day MA of 16.57, and above the 200-day MA of 15.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PROV.
Provident Financial Holdings Risk Analysis
Provident Financial Holdings disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Provident Financial Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Provident Financial Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $112.52M | 8.83 | 9.18% | 1.81% | 8.55% | 25.00% | |
73 Outperform | $82.13M | 9.49 | 9.03% | 4.16% | 4.30% | 20.85% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $106.13M | 18.95 | 4.77% | 3.50% | -1.84% | -3.36% | |
64 Neutral | $110.55M | 9.35 | 14.94% | 6.08% | 11.40% | 29.64% | |
60 Neutral | $113.08M | -26.40 | -2.73% | 1.51% | -11.57% | -191.02% | |
54 Neutral | $84.40M | 8.22 | -3.21% | 2.86% | -4.84% | -557.25% |
* Financial Sector Average
PROV
Provident Financial Holdings
17.00
2.54
17.58%
AUBN
Auburn National Bancorporation
23.80
4.19
21.34%
MGYR
Magyar Bancorp
17.38
2.44
16.36%
PBHC
Pathfinder Bancorp
13.55
-1.04
-7.14%
RVSB
Riverview Bancorp
5.45
-0.51
-8.57%
UNB
Union Bankshares
23.49
-5.82
-19.84%
Provident Financial Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Provident Financial Posts Lower Q3 Earnings, New Buyback Plan
Negative
Apr 28, 2026
Provident Financial Holdings reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 net income of $1.35 million, or $0.21 per diluted share, for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, down 6% sequentially and 27% year over year. The decline was driven mainly by a swing to...
Dividends
Provident Financial Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend to Shareholders
Positive
Apr 24, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.14 per share for holders of its common stock. Shareholders of record at the close of business on May 14, 2026 will...
Executive/Board Changes
Provident Financial Mourns Director’s Passing, Plans Board Change
Negative
Apr 17, 2026
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. announced that Director William E. Thomas passed away on April 13, 2026, and expressed condolences to his family, friends, and colleagues. The company stated that its board of directors will address the board vac...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.